Today's animal spirits is brought to you by advisor shares. Ben, do you know, historically,
without looking, what is the weakest month of the year for the stock market?
I would have guessed October just because that was in 1987 crash, but that's just like the guess.
That's what I would have guessed, right? That's a great guess because I told
me 1987, I think there's a, well, October, 2018, there's a few others that were bad.
It's September. Actually, I guess September, it was bad one too.
Yeah, I guess September, 1929, that was the peak for the Great Depression crash.
So we're approaching seasonally one of the weakest times in the year. August is not so great,
either, but September is bad. The average monthly performance for the S&P 500 in September is
negative 1.1%. The second weakest month is February, just down 0.13%. So this is an average,
so you have to take this with the grain of salt. So did everyone? Got it, nailed it.
But there's some seasonal weakness coming. Anyhow, with that said,
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Welcome to Animal Spirits, a show about markets, life, and investing. Join Michael Batnik and
Ben Carlson as they talk about what they're reading, writing, and watching. All opinions expressed
by Michael and Ben are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Redholtz
Wealth Management. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any
investment decisions. Clients of Redholtz Wealth Management may maintain positions in the securities
discussed in this podcast. Welcome to Animal Spirits with Michael and Ben. Housekeeping, real quick,
real quick. We've got future proof coming up in two weeks. I am excited. Ben, are you excited?
I'm very excited. I can't wait. If you're an advisor, they're coming to see the content. Maybe
coming to see us. Interested in learning how we work with advisors at Redholtz Wealth Management,
reach out to us. We'd love to see you instead of time to chat. Email hiring at redholtzwealth.com.
But if you want to meet with us, you have to wear a tropical braille shirt. That's the rules.
That's the rules. We don't make them. But in this case, we do. Okay. I want to start the show with
an email that came in last week. Good morning, guys. On this week's podcast, you were wondering who
is still traveling for business. Then, of course, laughed at how often you both were traveling. Yep,
guilty. I recently worked in acquisitions for whatever, whatever. We had a very lenient work
from home policy. As an employees lived in almost 30 states. For our group, every two weeks,
people would be required to come to the office for a couple of days. Every month, the company
required all employees to be on site for team bonding them. And every month, the company flew
half the employees to New York City and put them up for a few days. Very few people traveled
for conferences. And most of our deals were done via Zoom. But those off these office visits
were expensive business travel. caveat. This is personal anecdote. But if this is a replicate
and more broadly, it can explain some of the high numbers. That makes sense. So more people could
be traveling. So work from home paradoxically is causing more business travel. That's weird.
Yeah, but that actually makes sense. I kind of get it. So, yeah, interesting. PS, the phrase
to the health has a gruesome backstory. A few people even know this one. This idiom alludes to
the handle of or also known as the health of a sword. The only portion that remains out when
the weapon is plunged all the way in. The figurative use of the term was first recorded in 1687.
I like it. So that's like you got to make sure it's all the way in there. There we go. All right,
so Ben, this is where this is a garden variety correction in the stock market. And I wanted to ask you
speaking of idioms and sorts, where does that phrase come from? Garden variety. I saw somebody
call something else a garden variety, not correction. When I hear the term garden variety,
the next word that comes out of my head is correction. But I heard somebody say a garden variety.
I can't remember what they were talking about. Where does that one come from? Garden variety.
Someone's going to have the email on this. I've never looked that one up before. I just figure
everything comes from Shakespeare. Have you seen this blog post? I say like the 25 sayings we use
today that come from Shakespeare. So I'm guessing it comes from Shakespeare. Good guess.
Doesn't it seem like I was filling up the dock this morning because you've abdicated
your responsibilities again and left it all to me. Dude, that is what a big week. That is fake news.
Are you are you kidding me? 90% 90% at least is me. That is so not true. 90% what are you nuts? 90.
I'm going to have Sean do not out of this one. We're done. 90% do 90. That's crazy talk.
Okay. That's crazy talk. I won't even I won't even a romantic. I won't even give you 55. I would
maybe stretch to 53. Okay. Okay. It's at least 70. It's like 70 30. But. No. Not even close.
It's not not not close. But doesn't it seem like markets are just more boring to talk about when
things are up? I feel like you have to look harder to find topics of things to talk about because
the stock market is still up. S&P is up 16% this year. Still Mads X up 36 or 37. Still? Wow.
Still, right? It's I know you talk about garden variety correction, but it hasn't been that much
of a correction. Here's something I was challenged to a bit of a duel on Twitter a couple weeks
last week. I said something about bonds and Rob is bits who writes for ETF.com said I'm going to
write a like a bearish piece on bonds in the 60 40 because my point was listen, bonds were
a awful bet when interest rates were 1% or below or below. What's what can I just ask what's
the what's the deal with the Rubik's cube there? You practicing? No, you know, I've got it here.
I don't know where it came from and I just spin it. I don't know how it works. I'm not
I'm not clever enough to do you know how this works? My kids have one and there if you google it,
there's a way to there's a certain way of turning it that that like there's a there's some sort of
pattern that you do. Oh, yeah. No, I know that there I know that there are ways. Yeah, people know
how to do it. I just don't. Yeah, but I think turning it makes me feel like I'm doing a brain
exercise even though I'm looking at it. It's like it's like your Tom Cruise bat and if you could
then you just carry it for like good luck. Anyway, so Rob is best wrote this piece and I think
there's a lot of stuff out there that the idea that like when rates and inflation are higher,
correlations for stocks and bonds go up and that makes the any diversified portfolio of stocks and
bonds not worth as much. So he said for nearly two decades, investment advisors and self-directed
investors came to understand and appreciate asset allocation. It's a complimentary combination
of stocks and bonds. When rates were falling, bond prices were rising and stock market was
driving higher in those easier credit conditions that combination worked very well. Paul's latest
message prompts advisors and investors to focus their attention on what to do about their portfolios
with a possibility of a quick Fed cut likely off the table unless it's in response to a financial
crisis with so much money and sentiment having rallied around 60, 40 concept until both stocks and
bonds fell in tandem in 2022. The potential for a profitable restart just took a hit. It's up to
advisors to adjust to that. Now, I think there is something to the fact that correlations increase
in an inflation environment. I get that. But I think what happened in 2022 was maybe one of the
biggest one-offs in history going from zero to five percent. That's just not going to happen again.
And I think a lot of people misinterpret the idea of stocks and bonds as like when stocks go up,
bonds go down and when bonds, you know, stocks go down, bonds go up. It hasn't always been like that.
I did this a while ago. I have to update it, but I looked at from like the 1930s to the,
I think I did it in 2013. So this is in a way that machine for Ben's blog. It was like 60% of the
time stocks and bonds rise together in the same year, which makes sense because bonds haven't fallen
all that much historically. So like most of the time stocks and bonds are moving up in tandem.
It's not like they're going in opposite directions. And I think the idea that you need rates to fall
for bonds to work is also a misnomer because now that yields are higher, you just need the yields to
say where they are and you'll do fine. You don't need the yields to fall. The reason bonds did so
well, sure, falling rates helped, but the reason bonds did so well from the 80s forward was because
the higher yields were so, the yield was starting to start to yield so high.
Higher for longer is not a bad thing. In fact, I would rather rate stay at 5%
and you just clip the 5% then rates go from 5 to 3%. And then, oh, cool, you've got 12% price
appreciation or whatever it is. And then you're only back to clipping 3%. I'd rather rate stay where
they are. That'd be great. Yeah. So if you're a bond investor, this would be, if rates just stay
still, you're fine. Obviously, if rates rise, you're not doing as well, but you still have a
much bigger margin of safety when the starting rates are 4 or 5% than you did when they're 50 basis
points or 1%. So I don't think that the idea that a 60, 40 is screwed makes any sense. All right.
Nick Majuli, he knows how to do computer stuff. What's the program called R or something?
I still don't know what that is. Oh, I program on R. I don't know what that is.
I'm more of a Python guy. Okay. I don't really know what that is either.
So Nick created, first he created an S&P 500 total return calculation,
going using Robert Schiller's data, going way back. And now he did one for dollar-cost
averaging. And it's just a simple DCA calculator. You can do it by month. You can do an initial
investment and then a monthly investment. So I wanted to see, well, how does dollar-cost
averaging work in this bear market, right? You start putting 500 bucks a month in January 2022,
which is right in the market peaked, right? It was like the second or third day of trading,
last year the market peaked. You put $500 a month in every month. How have you done
up till the end of July? Because this is a multi-calculator. Not bad. Your total contributions,
$9,000, you walked away with almost $10,000. Your IR on a nominal basis was over 13%.
So IRR takes the cash flows and the timing of the cash flows into account. Even with inflation,
you're up almost 9%. You know what dollar-cost averaging works? Because it's a reverse Ponzi scheme.
You're just you're paying yourself every month, right? So even if you go through a lost decade,
a lost four years or whatever it is, your accounts, depending on how bad the drawdown is,
of course you could lose money on it. That goes without saying. But you're paying yourself.
It works better when it works better in a bear market than it does in a bull market.
Yeah, given enough time, sure. But it's just it's a forced way to save money. I don't
know if any other better way to do it. We have to talk about like here the returns from the
from the low of the bear market. Here are the returns from the peak. And we look at things on
like a very point in time. But most people's lives are they're periodically investing because
that's when they have savings come in. They invest when they're income. So you have like a million
different points over the course of your investing life cycle where you're investing every two weeks,
every week, every month, or whatever, every quarter, whatever it is. However often you save,
it doesn't always make sense to look at things from a one because people will often say like,
well, look at back historically the S&P 500 went nowhere for 15 years or whatever. And it had this
period where inflation adjusted from 1966 to 1962, whatever it is. And it's like that's that is
true. But most people's experience is not one point to another point. It usually doesn't work like
that. People are putting money in or they're taking money out or they're you know, there's something
the rebalancing, something's going on. It's not always just a static one to one, this A to B kind
of thing. Yeah, most people's experience in the market is not, all right, I've got a million
dollars and I dropped it all in and now I'm just now I'm just one for one with the market. Exactly.
It doesn't it doesn't work like that. It's it's not a static is that also over that since
January 2022, the S&P's down four and a half percent now. So if we last year, one of the worst
years ever combined with this year and we're back to a garden variety correction, right? Duncan
gave us the meaning. The expression alludes to a plant likely to be cultivated in a typical garden
expected producer, respectable harvest or attractive blooms. That doesn't help very much.
It's like a garden variety definition of garden variety. It really is. It didn't help us for it.
Okay, my client and I like this is a this is a good one for the haters. Remember when people said
the SBB thing was a brand new QE and the Fed would never reduce their balance sheet. He says,
wrong again, Doomer. This is from Stratigus and it shows the Fed's balance sheet. It had that
little increase there from the banking crisis, but now it continues to fall. And so I think a lot
of people have been trying to hang their hat on well. Actually, the Fed is still is still
manipulating markets. That's the only reason they're up this year. I don't think many people would have
thought a Fed balance sheet is falling interest rates are rising. There's no way this stock market
can rise. I think a lot of people have been waiting for this scenario. This the rates are going
to rise. Fed's going to pull out and the stock market is going down 80%. That's been like the Doomer's
dream for well over a decade. Not happening. Nothing. All right, let's look at something else that
I put in a doc that you haven't put in. I don't think we had one Michael contribution. I'm just
saying if we're keeping if we're scoring here. Excuse me. We started we started the show with
something that I put in. All right, you know what? Fine. You're going to be petty. Fine. We're
keeping the score. All right, let's go. Duncan. Duncan will keep track on the video. All right.
From the Washington Post, this is investor behavior here. A share of non-retired Americans who feel
retirement their retirement saving plan is on track. This is good because this is the I feel
timeout timeout. Did somebody just make this chart by hand? Where did this come from?
It's from the Washington Post. So the Federal Reserve does these surveys every year, like the consumer
or something survey. So it asks people like, how do you feel about your retirement? And
Hey, God, I'm sorry. This survey goes back to 1850. Oh, wait, you're looking at the wrong one.
Look at the one above it. Okay. Oh, I'm sorry. I'm going to show you. Then I got the end up. Yeah.
So it's it's really it's it's really not that high of a it's like 36% 37% got the 40% in 2021.
Things are feeling good. And then it immediately drops to 31% in 2022 because stocks and bonds fell
and people thought we're going to recession, I guess. I guess this is just the ultimate
sentiment indicator of of things get worse. I feel worse about myself. But like the whole point of
saving for retirement is you're going to be having to say for decades and decades into the future.
And if one bear market is going to make you feel like you're off track, like you should you should
expect, I don't know, 10 to 12 bear markets over the course of your lifetime, probably.
Maybe three to four market crash scenarios in there. My whole point is that like that should
be in your retirement plan. Your retirement plan shouldn't feel worse just because there's a bear
market. That should be part of it. I wonder what the actual question is. Do you think the question is
simply do you feel you're on track for retirement? That is fairly the sort of this is where
rant I surveyed because a lot of it is is how you feel and how yeah, how it's worded.
Also, how many people know whether or not they're on track? What does that even mean? You think
most people have a plan? Okay. So how many percent what percent of the population has a retirement
plan in place? It might be like a third. Like it might be like I'd say less. Really? But also. Yeah.
But also do you think people are likely to overestimate or underestimate how well they're doing
financially? I would say generally it would be you'd be you don't underestimate. There's no benefit
to say I'm great. I'll be fine. Yeah, that's true. So this other chart that I put in here,
I'm reading this. I can't remember how I got on this book. It's one of those. I'm reading a
nonfiction book and then I read a study in the source and I go, oh, that's kind of interesting.
And so I'm reading this book called the evolution of retirement because this stuff I don't know,
kind of fascinates me and it's it goes back to the 1800s how basically there was no such thing
as retirement before life was just awful back then and this shows the people who were gainfully
employed at age 55 to 64 and 65 plus. So in 1850, 95% of people who were age 55 to 64 were
still working and this this only goes to 1990 because this book was actually written in the 90s.
65 plus it was almost 80%. And so the whole idea the concept of retirement is still relatively new.
I think it was more or less invented. People started really retiring and having a life of leisure
in like the 50s and 60s before then it like leisure didn't exist for entire people. Like 50% of
people lived with their kids still and their kids took care of them and that was their retirement
plan. I wonder what retirement is going to look like in the future because when people retired,
maybe not our parents, but if people retired like in I don't know 2000 or whatever,
what did you do? What do you mean without like well, there's there's a lot more to stimulate people
these days than there was in the past. There's a lot more things to I think people actually could
relax. I don't think it's easy to relax these days because you can always check your phone or
email. A lot more stimulants, a lot more recreational activities. Pickable. There's no pickle
ball back in the day. That's true. I could see you getting in a pickle ball. No. No interest.
Okay. I would do I I'm not a big fan of people hate on pickle ball. I don't think it's like a sport
like it shouldn't be televised in ESPN, but I could see having I could see having fun with it.
I'm going against the grand on this one. All right from the wash Wall Street Journal,
the best age to make good financial decisions. Did you read this one or no? I did. Okay,
so you already know the answer. This is one of the reasons that like having a good
you're your whole idea of having a retirement plan is like the amount of people because it says
the optimal age to make your best decisions is what 53 or 54. I buy that. That's a you know when
you're middle aged, but that's middle age plus. But they but they talk about they went through all
these things like auto loans and credit cards and home equity lines of credit and all these things
like when do you when are you at your best time to make the decisions and it has to do with
experience and expertise in these areas. And this is to your point why there's probably not
many people with a retirement plan because if you wait this long to be able to make good decisions
on it, like that's it's almost too late. You can still play catch up at this age, but for most
people, they kind of figured out in their I don't know late 40s, early 50s and by then like the
good stuff that you could have done when you're younger, that time has passed you. So it's like
you have all the time in the world for compounding when you're young, but you don't have any
money or expertise. And then when you're older, you have more money and income, but you don't have
the time for compounding. It's kind of a cruel irony if you think about it. Yeah, I'm thinking about
this study. How much time and money was spent on this? Probably a lot. Right, probably a lot.
But they got a lot of publicity probably. I don't think. And what's like the what's the action
will take away? I don't know. Most people are screwed when it comes to their finances. I guess it
yeah, good point. So you're saying academics are useless. No, but I'm saying this is this is very
academic. Alright, another one of our favorite academic ones. What's the JP Morgan study called
Agony Nextacy? So it's like 40% of all companies in Russell 3000 had a 70% decline in price from
peaks. They never returned. So I pulled I was looking at AMC the other day because that was
number of people were putting signs on their garage doors and putting signs in their cars being like
AMC to the moon. And this was like I'm going to take down the man using AMC stock, which is still
beyond me. How will we theater stock ever got to that point? Well, it's down 98% now from the highs.
And I think it's below where it started before the pandemic. Other pelotons still down 97%
teledocs down 93% zoom is down 88%. Robinhood is down 85%. All these the game stops even down
to 80%. These are those stocks of that study, right? Like we've talked in recent months about like
Netflix and Facebook and some of these other companies coming back. But these are the companies
that are probably never going to see those 2021 peaks again. Oh, never. And not even close, right?
No, no, no. Right. Like you could buy these stocks for a trade and I don't know, make 40 or
if it, but if you're, you know, anchoring to 2021 peaks that that's just it's never going to happen.
Well, this is this is the the flaw in the best in their study. In my opinion, is that yeah,
these stocks, all the ones on this list and a lot of stocks will have negative lifetime returns,
right? But I don't know. I'm not saying buy zoom now, but there's there's trades in here,
right? Like there's opportunities to double trip of your money. That's true. Like like GE is
probably not going back to their relative size of 2000 or 2005, but it could be a good investment
for a certain period of time. Yeah, exactly. City group or something. Yeah, that makes sense.
Both stocks are not worth buying and holding forever. We know this, but you know, they fluctuate.
All right, what's this margin debt? I think this is the first thing you put in the dock all day,
no, no, no, what it is. Listen, I've been, I've missed 10 to one. I've been sick for three weeks.
I'm going to go into the details, but I was telling Ben and talking before the show. I've been just
like general general malaise and but now it's like accelerating. I don't know what's going on. I'm
like getting sicker middle age. What the hell's happening? It's kids are middle age kids going back
to school. Maybe I don't know. So my kids my kids are off this week. There's a there's a week off
between camp and school. We're not quite sure what's my kids are on week two of school. I don't know
what's happening in Michigan here. We're going back to school way too early. Are we two I cut off
two weeks in my summer. Oh, do you know about this? Here's an activity that the kids have been doing.
Killing spotted lantern spotted lantern flies. Do you hear about this? No, what's that? I just found
out about this. Apparently, there's like a giant infestation and these are like, I didn't
have any articles yet, but these apparently these bugs are bad for the environment and they're
multiplying. And so I've never seen these before. Again, I'm here. This is my wife's second hand.
So take this with a gigantic grain of whatever you can take it with sand that you're supposed to
kill these bugs. And so like Colby and the kids at the beach are like stomping in them. They're
everywhere and like getting really excited. It reminds me of the movie Starship Troopers,
which is obviously one of my favorites. So we after last week when you said that you really
liked the whale, Duncan said like we should have a kalshi bedding market for Michael,
for movies Michael likes because Duncan and I said we would have had our life savings that you would
have hated the whale and somehow you liked it. And of course, you like stars at troopers. I mean,
I don't like that movie. I love that movie. It was one of my favorite favorite movies as a child.
Starship Troopers. Yes. That's always one that I might have caught bits and pieces of on TBS
here and there. I don't think I ever watched the whole thing sort of finish. Is that Tim Allen?
No, no, no, you're thinking of, uh, what do I think? You're thinking of Galaxy Quest.
Okay. I think that's it, right? Yeah. Starship Troopers is Casper Van Dean or Dean Dean, Denise
Richards, Neil Patrick Harris and pH as I call him. And the guy who looked like Rob Lowe,
but not Rob Lowe, last handsome Rob Lowe, who was Kelly Capaski's boyfriend at the max.
I mean, it sounds like it sounds like a TV. It sounds like a TV movie to me.
And Gary Busy's son. Okay. Jake. You're not selling it. You're not selling it very much to me.
Great movie. Well, I didn't even tell you what it's about, but just like they kill big giant bugs
or something, right? Phenomenal. I think that's where you're going with this. Yeah. Anyway,
all right, margin debt as a percent of S&P 500 market cap.
This is a good chart because usually you just see that the number. This is this is the denominator
blindness thing. It's been going down for a while actually because the market's so much bigger now,
right? Yeah. I guess, but what's more interesting is money market funds, five and a half trillion
dollars in money market funds, all the way up. But again, thanks to Liz Zander's you had to
adjust it. Money market funds is a percentage of S&P 500 market cap. I'm shocked at how low it is.
That is pretty good. Are you? It's like, what is that? 14 and a half percent of market cap.
I guess if you just assume that money money was flowing out of money market funds for what,
12 years probably as the S&P 500 was going up. But yeah, that is it. So is this future money on
the sideline though, if rates fall back down? I don't know. I feel like cash is cash.
Maybe. You know what I mean? People that earmark their money for their check and whatever,
that's not money that's coming to the stock market. I know you're getting with the money on the
sidelines, but no, but where did this money come from, though? That's something we don't know.
That's what I would love to see that you can't ever tell with flows like where, what was this
money and was it in bonds and it's coming out of there? Is it was it in stocks? It's, it's,
no, I don't think it's, I think it's more checking account. Yeah, it could be checking in savings.
That's fair. The whole interest rate thing, I mean, this is like the the most non-committal thing
you could say about the markets and trying to make a prediction, but I really can see really good
arguments for like rates are going to go back down to 2 percent, or rates are going to stay at,
like, settle in at 3 to 4, or rates are going to stay high for another two. Like, I could,
I could make a pretty good argument at all those and not be surprised either way at this point.
Here's what I think is going to happen. If, if I had to make a prediction on what the,
what's going to happen with the economy, I think, I think it's possible we avoid a recession,
but we're going to see rolling recessions for the next couple of years in specific industries.
We already saw it in tech, right? We saw that in tech in 2022, a lot of layoffs.
The housing market is kind of in a recession or what? We saw it in startups.
The housing market is certainly in a recession. Retail, stores, department stores,
are not doing great. I don't know what else is going to happen. We'll commercial real estate
certainly, but I think it's possible you see a series of recessions that hit this industry,
that sector, that sector, without dragging the economy down, or the economy just plunges. That's
possible too. The weird thing is the economy plunging scenario is kind of predicated on
the economy accelerating now first to have more like more excess. That's what most people don't
realize is that most recessions come from excess. We have excess and speculation and stuff,
but it never was really excess in the economy. That's what a blow off top and growth would be
like an excess and that would actually lead to probably a bigger downturn in the economy.
Was there excess spending? Yeah, but there was also excess savings. It balances out like here,
look at this inflation chart that I put in here. This is real average hourly earnings year over
year. This is an income adjusted for inflation. We had that period in 2021 and most of 2022,
and it's finally gone positive where it was below trend, meaning people were falling behind
on their incomes. This is something people talk about. Look at no one ever talks about the above
average period of growth we had from 2020 and that first, look at that almost a year-long period
where we had way above trend and way above inflation. What we've seen in terms of the people
falling behind is really just balancing out of that huge spike in income growth that we saw before.
If, again, if kind of like 2022 returns in the market in 2023, if you mash them together,
it evens out and balances out. That's kind of the same thing we do with incomes,
but no one talks about that period of way above average income growth. They only focus on the
blow average income growth. Fair? Everyone is falling behind, but no one talked about everyone getting
ahead first. That's the excess saving stuff being run off with more spending. It's balancing it
out, but obviously the only thing that matters is what happens from here. Do we go back to trend or
I don't know, but that's the point here. We're balancing out a lot of things in terms of the
pandemic surge and some of it is going to look like the economy slowing, whereas most of it is
just getting back on trend. Good point. All right. Never seen this one before. Let's move on to
real estate. Got a lot of real estate stuff. Bob Burgess, my former editor at Bloomberg. I used to
right there once upon a time. Whatever the section was, it was some new section. We're going to have
all these new writers on something and then it got thrown into the woodchipper. I was
Bloomberg. I can't remember. It was like Bloomberg view and then Bloomberg something else and the
something else did make it. So I anyway, I'd never seen this before. He said this is a mind-blowing
graph showing the average rate on US mortgages outstanding. The effective rate that borrowers
are paying on their home loans is 3.6%. I've never seen this. I mean, you probably could have
backed into this answer somehow, but this is the collective mortgages. I guess in their amounts
and then divide that by the number of people mortgages and the rates and this gets you 3.6%.
Which is I guess about what I would expect it to be. Scroll your eyeballs down to the chart
from Les Anzanders. It's the same chart. It shows the US effective rate of interest, but it also
contrasts it with the current 30 year and look at that spread. Right. Wild. Yes. Yeah, but yeah,
I've never seen this like the effective rate before, but it it it makes sense and this is
explains a lot of going on the housing market. You saw this Zillow thing, right? 1% down payment
program. Yes. I don't think this is as big of a deal as most of some people do. I know some
people are saying this is ridiculous. This is like 2008 subprime stuff all over again.
Set the market straight. Okay. Well, I just first of all, I don't think that many people are
probably going to apply. I think this is more good marketing PR by Zillow than anything else,
because I don't know how many people are even going to be eligible. Glad we got you a gate,
right? You need some electrolytes. Well, it's only four people that are trying to qualify. It's
for first time home buyers. It's they're starting in Arizona to spread to other states,
but it's for people that need the assistance that are trying to qualify for the FHA
loan, which I think you need to put down. I think it's state by state, minimum 3% or 5% in some
states. Yeah, and it says Zillow is going to contribute an additional 2% at closing, which I don't
know how it all shakes out there with Zillow making a contribution to, but I've a lot of people
like worried about this and like, okay, no, this is this is not like oh 99% leverage for everyone.
That's not what this is. Right. I don't I don't see this in the thing is obviously down payments have
gone up, but the mortgage payments themselves, the monthly payments have gone up way more on a
percentage basis than the down payments, like obviously it's way more it's harder for people to come
up with down payments with higher housing prices, but it's the monthly payments that's the problem
for most people. So this is just increasing a monthly payment even more. True. So I don't think this
is going to be a lot. My other question is how many jobs are even left in the mortgage financing
departments right now? There can't be any, I mean, it has to be just tumbleweeds, right,
because no one's going to refinance. No one's. Speaking of speaking about rolling corrections
or rolling recessions. Yeah, the mortgage industry decimated, right? Mortgage applications are
down to the lowest level in over 20 years. Right. Yeah, there's no activity. There's no inventory.
There's no refinancing going on. Yeah, if getting to 7 and a half percent mortgage loans and maybe
get up to 8%, possibly like, I think this is going to finally start having the impact. I don't
know what that's going to be, but I think people are just going to, it's just going to keep like
slowing, like grinding the gears slower and slower. Wild chart from Mike's to Cardi. Showing
high yield rates versus mortgage rates. I don't know why he looked at this chart.
Yes, I'm sure. I asked him. Well, he said, so he said mortgages are almost close to high yield
rates. And I said, has that ever happened before? And he pulled up the chart and
it kind of wild. Yes. In fact, very wild. It's like, wait a minute. Mortgage rates are the same as
rates on junk bond on junk. So I after we talked about this last week, I wrote a blog post about
why are mortgage rates so high? And I looked at the spreads by decade, like the 30 year minus the 10 year.
And the average is less than 2%. But even in the set, someone was saying, well, when there's more
volatile times and the rates are rising and inflation is rising, it must mean that spreads are wider.
But in the 1970s, that's the lowest average spread we've ever had. Because I only have mortgage
data going back to the 70s. 1.3% was the spread. So even if even if we went back to like the 2010s
spread of 1.7%, we'd be talking more like 6% mortgages right now. I think the fed really screwed
up the mortgage market when they bought and sold all those mortgage bonds. I think they're
going to have to be the ones that come in and narrow this spread at some point. And maybe they're
never going to want to. You know, how about this? That's a good, that's a good, that's plant that flag.
The fed will start buying mortgage bonds before they lower interest rates, true or false.
If they, if they really wanted to like make things function better on the housing market,
maybe they're not going to, but that because I think the fed is obviously trying to slow the economy,
bring prices down. But are they trying to really crash the housing market? I doubt it.
Well, I'm sure that they thought in their minds raising rates so high would would slow the housing
market or would bring prices down. Don't you think? I wouldn't be surprised if they, I'm sure they
wanted like a 10 or 20% correction. They haven't gotten it. I just, I don't think they thought
through the ramifications of going so fast from where they worked, where they are.
With the combination of them stopping the purchases. Yeah. All right. The rise of the four bedroom
house. So this is from 1973 to today, four bedroom household. This is percentage of new single
family houses by bedroom number. It went from 20, some percent in 1973 to 48% now. Three bedroom
houses went from 65% to 43%. This is another reason that houses are more expensive these days.
They're bigger. There's more amenities. I grew up in a three bedroom house. Well,
there was one bedroom downstairs, but I don't know if that really counts. I guess, I guess it's
four bedroom. The first house we lived in was three bedrooms. My brother and I had to share a bunk bed.
I guess we moved in. It was four bedrooms. We got our own bedroom. My parents are still
in that same house. You know, the layout, we've spoken about old houses in the past about the layout
of the house. I grew up and it was terrible. It was, I guess, a split level. So you walk up the steps
to the door and you open the door and there's like a little sort of foyer. That's my, my parents
still have that map. So there's a downstairs with that one little bedroom and like a living room
and a bathroom down there and then the laundry room. But then upstairs, you've got the living room
to the left dining room behind it, kitchen next to it. So you're describing my parents' house
right now. Yeah, I grew up in the same house. One bathroom and then one bedroom next to it and
then the master bedroom. So I slept like five feet from my mom. Yes, which is right and 10 feet
from the kitchen. Yes, that's true. Everything did feel right on top of each other. Not, not great.
I sent you the the TikTok of the 1990s HDTV thing. Did you watch that one? Uh-uh. It was, I, I,
I slept. Where'd you send it? Oh, I slacked it to our animal spirits channel. Oh, I missed it. Okay.
It's pretty fun. But it's funny because they're talking about all these things in the 90s that
houses were like and it, it, it, when you think about the, the lady goes, oh, this is way too open.
Close it off. Let's close it off. And like, it's, it's pretty funny. So yeah, I think the house
that I just described is like what a lot of people grew up in, right? Yes. Back to my point that like
back in the day, no one really thought about this stuff. And that's why I blame HDTV for what,
wait, what, you're blaming them for good thing? Well, no, I blame HDTV for jacking up the price
of houses. It's, it's a good thing and a bad thing. Houses would be way cheaper. It wasn't for HDTV.
How about this? Here's a take. Home prices were way undervalued for like several decades
because, because the quality wasn't great. Yeah, I think we, now, now we're, you're paying up for
quality. That's part of it. I think, yeah, we, that's part of it. And the demographic thing
obviously happened to, but yeah, they're, you're right. People didn't pay in their, the renovations
people do now and it, it wasn't like that back in the day. Well, Ben, look at the median sale price
from Redfern. It's been rising since 2000. Well, I granted home prices. Took a bit of a haircut
after the GFC, but median sales price pulled back a tiny bit approaching New Autom highs,
an active listings destroyed. So this is the thing that the Fed probably didn't anticipate was
that raising rates was going to kill demand. They, they probably, they probably understood. But
I don't think they, they may not have realized it was going to kill supply as well. I don't think
they thought, I think they, they thought that at all, you would have, that supply would have risen
because it'd be harder to sell, but the demand's still outweigh the supply. So it didn't really
destroy demand. It, it more destroyed supply, unfortunately. They killed the wrong side of it.
Yes. Right. Which, and again, and I don't know what they could have done, because I do think that
if, if rates, if more rates go back down to, even from here, if they go back to six or even five
percent, the demand is going to come back in. Well, that's the thing. If they, if they, if they did
what I suggested and they step in to, to tighten rates down to six, six and a half, whatever it is.
And then you get like more, more autumn highs and home prices. Well, it's hard to have a
slowing economy at least traditionally if the house market is on fire. This, this is like the 2010s.
The Fed wanted to raise inflation and they couldn't. The Fed cannot fix the housing market. The only
thing that can fix the housing market is if we build more houses and that the Fed can't do that.
Right. So let's let the Fed start getting out construction loans to builders. Like they're not going
to fix the housing market regardless of what they do. Lance Lambert tweeted US home prices as
measured by the Zilla home value index set a new all time high in July. But when you dig deep
or you'll find there's a lot still a lot of red, the home price correction has packed a bigger
punch at the top end of the market. So San Francisco, upper tier down 13.5%, Seattle,
upper tier down 10.5%. Austin down 11 at the upper tier. And you know, at the lower price tier,
it's basically almost all time highs across the board, middle a little bit less. But still,
you know, I saw there's a house in my neighborhood that seemingly has been like not a bandend because
it's still it's you know, it's a big housing condition or decent condition. And I walked past it
and I'm like, oh, you know, let me let me check it on Zilla. And it's pending for sale. And I think
it's being sold to it's a really big house. I think it's being sold for like $1.8 million,
$1.9 million. The mortgage payment on that same imagine 14,000 dollars a month.
What would have been a year ago at that price? 8 grand is it a fair analogy or am I stretching here?
The upper end of the housing market was like series A private companies where they were closer to
the public market and eventually filtered its way down to series DNC. Is this going to eventually
bleed into the middle market? I look at it the other way. I think that there's just always going
to be more demand for the lower middle tier of housing prices and the upper tier. There's just
fewer buyers there. So it's going to be yeah, it's going to be harder to ever have that same demand
for multi-million dollar houses. Yeah, I buy that. It's just a smaller pool of buyers. I buy that.
All right. This is interesting from the Wall Street Journal. I've never thought about this before,
but they're talking about how Americans are bailing on their home insurance.
I never, I thought that home insurance was like car insurance like you had to have it.
They say 12% of all homeowners don't purchase homeowner's insurance.
I didn't know. I thought the banks wouldn't, maybe this is people who own their houses out, right?
I think at a origination, I'm making this up. Think at a origination you have to have insurance.
Right. Then you just let it lapse. You're allowed to cancel. That's crazy. I can't imagine not
having insurance in my house. I can't even say it. It's like almost everybody's largest asset.
And they're talking about how it's becoming really bad in places like Florida and California
because of hurricanes and wildfires. They interview this guy Larry Fair and Holt
hasn't had home insurance more than 25 years. He estimates he'd saved more than $50,000 on his
1100 square foot Los Angeles home. It would probably be financially devastating if I lost my house,
but I have enough money and savings to move into a condo in that event. I just can't see the trade
off there, but the point is in places like Florida where it's becoming just ridiculously expensive to
to do this. A lot of people are almost having to like they can't afford it. So this is why my biggest
climate hedge is living in the Midwest by the Great Lakes. In like 30 years, we're going to get a
reverse migration of these people who all move south people are moving south for like the last 20
years. And all you hear all summer is people in South complaining. It's 115 degrees or whatever.
That's not going to get better in the coming years. We're going to have a reverse migration and
people are going to want to be by water and they're going to want more they want a better climate
and come to the Midwest. The Midwest in like the 2040s and 2050s is going to be the biggest real
estate market in the country. Time stamp. I'll tell you you get the dust, the dust thing for like
from Interstellar and all the crops are killed. By the way, I mentioned that because I rewatched
Interstellar first time in a long time. I don't know when did I movie come out 2010? I have no idea.
I didn't love it on the first watch. It actually it ages better on a rewatch.
Rewatched a couple years ago too. 2014. So I think I like the first so that movie pulls
at your heartstrings, right? Yes. With the kid stuff. I like the I love the first third.
I think it you know, it's it got it got wacky. It was hard to land a plane.
Yeah, and so so Robin was Robin jumped in halfway through with me. She's like,
this is so dumb, but she wouldn't stop watching. And then at the end, like with the bookshelf,
she's like, okay, all right, this is but I'm not sure if I love that movie, but I definitely
enjoyed the shit out of it. Like I said, the first time I watched it, I think because of the
ending, I didn't like it that much, but then I watched it again and I liked it more of the second
watch. Yeah. Good movie. McConaughey has it very good. McConaughey. He's so good. He has a great
crying scene in that movie. So good in that. He wrote about it in his book. How he's he like
gets himself psyched up and he told who's the director of that one? Is it a fincher movie?
It's Chris. No, Christopher Nolan. No, I'm sorry. Yeah, the kid stuff is tough, really tough.
He said he got it for the crying scene. He said he got himself all psyched up. And he didn't
want to do more than one take. And he said, he walked into the room and he said, no, let's go
start filming now. I'm ready. He like, whatever he does, like get himself ready to cry.
That's a good one. All right. Amazon has talked with Disney and a new ESPN streaming service.
Maybe more notable is that ESPN is considering charging between $20 and $35 for the new service.
That seems high to me. So what is the sport? This is for people that cut the core, but so when
they watch sports? Yes, or people that want to cut the core, but aren't doing it because of sports?
Yeah, but the problem is, all right. So you get you get ABC and you get ESPN, although ABC is on
basic cable, right? So on basic cable, you get ABC, you get NBC, you get CBS. So you've got all
like the local games. But you need ESPN for, is that Sunday night football? Whatever it is.
You need ESPN for that. You need ESPN for basketball. But what about TNT?
Right. That's the thing. The sports are going to keep going wider. And maybe just the hope is
that Amazon and Apple start buying them all up and you can get them all through there through a bundle.
But I think their hope is like, that's the direction this is going, right?
They're thinking like, we used to have, I don't know what is 100 million people who subscribed to
cable and they had ESPN. But if we can get, I think the number they said is like 12 million to
sign up for this, since it's going to be so expensive, it's going to be the same economics.
That's their hope. That just seems really high to me. I'm sure there are so many
diehard people who watch sports, but that's a tough ask.
They cut in the cord has become very expensive. So I mean, I'm sure what Disney is going to do
eventually is it's going to be, are you able to pay for prime plus Disney plus plus Hulu plus ESPN,
whatever they're calling it and get them all in one bundle. And that's kind of a bundle again.
Well, Disney does it right. You get ESPN, Disney plus and Hulu.
Yeah. So maybe Amazon's part of that and ESPN is part of that too.
I'm paying for cable and the only thing I don't pay for is Paramount.
Okay, I pay for that. We're watching a new series on that one. I'll talk about recommendations.
Yeah, I don't know. This is why I'm keeping the bundle for as long as I can, though, because
yeah, but I'm saying now it's double the cost because I'm paying for the bundle and for everything else.
Yes, you're screwed either way, whatever you do, you're screwed. But that's one of the reasons
that I like keeping the cable bundles because I get all the sports channels. If I want it like,
March, I love March madness. It's on true TV and TNT and TBS and CBS, right? It's on all four of
those channels. I need to have cable to get that, right? I think, all right. Survey of the,
we haven't done these in a while from you gov.com six and 10 regard unemployment as a
very or somewhat serious national problem. 24% say the jobless rate dropped in the last month
and only 34% say dropped numbers increasing. Though that has been the case,
and the official government numbers every month since the economy began to cover COVID-19.
This is back to your point about how many people understand their actual financial picture,
how many people understand the economy itself. Americans are nearly twice as likely to say the
economy is shrinking, then growing, 38% versus 21%. 44% say it's curling or recession and 22%
of recession is likely in the next year. All right. So I have two thoughts on this. Number one,
there's no information. There's no, there's no takeaway. There's no actionable information
in these surveys. They're meaningless. They don't mean anything. As far as if you're thinking about
the study investor lens, there's no actionable insights here. Unless you can't, I don't think you
can't engage sentiment through surveys anymore. No, you really can. Unless it's completely extreme
fine. But the other thing is, so it doesn't matter at all from, there's no actionable takeaway. However,
I do think it matters how, when you ask people how things are going, people are generally saying
it's bad. And we've spoken about this a billion times. There's a million reasons why they're saying
that. Even though, you know, a lot of people are always just going to say it's bad from now on,
because yeah, yeah, that's the camp I meant. People just say things are bad. One of the luxuries
we have today is we have time. Like I mentioned that book I was reading about the how in like the 1800s,
no one had time to retire. People were working like 60 hour weeks in the farms.
In the past, people didn't have time to worry about stuff. They didn't have time to watch cable
news all the time. They didn't have time to scroll their phone anytime and look at all the bad
news all the time, because people were too busy working and then doing nothing else.
And today, we have the luxury of being comfortable and seeing all the bad news. And so I think people
just are always going to be on the pessimistic side going forward because we have the ability to
see it all now and hear about it. Yeah, per minute. All right, so speaking of cutting the
cord, every day about 25,000 Americans canceled their cable cord.
You think those people are doing that after talking to the retention department about getting a
better deal? Like I do. That's back to the same level as it was in 1992. That's kind of wild.
Do you remember when we used to use to cancel the cord and you'd have to literally bring your
cable box in like your Comcast box back to Comcast? I bet you still do. No, you can send it to the
mail now. They sent you a box and you send it to the mail. You still in college, right? Yeah,
you'd have to wait in line and give them your box back. There was a podcast on the town with
Matt Bell and Angelie Alexander. They asked to make that Apple Plus has 15 million subscribers
in the United States, which is very, very low. I'm surprised Apple just doesn't give it away
with an iPhone these days just to get people on there. It's a good point. Why even charge?
All right, just give it away. How much is it a month? It's not that much. It's 10 bucks.
So I have 15. So 15 million, 120 a year. It's $1.8 billion in revenue. Certainly nothing.
Oh, it's a lemon. It's basically nothing. Give away a three month thing and then
have to give your credit card information to do it on Apple Pay. I think they probably do. How many
people would keep it? Yeah. All right. I've got a bunch of pick. A major bunch of pick.
Okay. It's a big bone. Okay. I ordered a man who has no pet peeves.
I ordered this not a pet peeve. Okay. I ordered two hex-clad pans. You ever hear of the
brand hex-clad? No, but I guess your other pans didn't work out very well, huh? Well,
I ordered the nonstick Amazon set for like 80 bucks and just terrible. So it's time to grow up
and get grown up pans. So I got two. They were not cheap at all. And I'm like,
hey, wait a minute. Where are my pans? So I logged on and it says your order has been delivered.
So I'm like, no, it hasn't. What? So I see the shipping address went to, I won't say his last name,
but his first name is Brian. The last name is a name that I've never heard before.
The address is an address that I've never seen before. It went to Torrance, California. What the
hell is going on? Was my shipment hacked or something? So I emailed them and they said like,
well, this is the address we have in file. You're welcome to take it up with UPS. And I'm like,
no, you take it up with UPS. Wait, Amazon said this or you brought us to someone else?
No, hex-clad said this. Okay. So I'm like, why should I? What? No, I got hacked or they got
hacked on the back and I didn't it. I didn't add to the shipping address. I don't know where this is.
Now, maybe from their point of view, like they're like, well, how do they know that? I didn't,
didn't I'm not just stealing, right? That I didn't send this to a friend. Yeah. But so what do I do?
You get that that's where you left it? Well, I emailed them again. I'm like, no, please do the
right thing. I think I got hacked. I don't know how this happened. Do you have the tracking number?
I would call UPS and say, hey, you dropped this off at the wrong place somehow. I could be a UPS
problem. I'm going to call, I think I'm going to call my credit card and see if they'll take this
up. But isn't this nuts? How does this happen? You with credit cards and deliveries,
not having a customer. Although I did get scammed on Instagram. The dance on Instagram knows me
too well. So I got another giant shirt on. This is homage. I think it's called. There's a knockoff
and they got me. So I see the convert. I see the advertised my phone. I'm like, oh, wow,
these prices are these are great prices. So I bought like a bunch of gear. I'm like, wait a minute.
This doesn't look like an homage. It looks like an homage knockoff. So I went to the website
to compare and contrast. It was a knockoff. So the quality is not as good? I don't know. I haven't
received it. I haven't received it. I assume it's knockoffs. Okay. So now, yeah. So Instagram,
as listeners know, that's where I get most of my clothes these days. I've been targeted, Ben. I'm
not sure how I feel about this. You know, like this has traditionally been for women,
is spanks the brand where you like it's like a it's like a form fitting it hold your stuff in.
So there's so I saw an ad for something called Shapeslim. And I have to say,
it looks very good for men for men. It's like spanks for men. It takes it takes it takes
the belly and it's just like, I don't know what it does with it, but just like makes it totally flat.
How uncomfortable would that be though? Well, you got two you got two things going against you.
Number one, it doesn't look I'm sure it's not the most comfortable thing in the world,
but then what happens? So people are looking you're like, oh, wow, he looks pretty good.
And then you go to the beach and you're a slob. Get a swim shirt, I guess.
But so I don't think I care enough. Okay. In fact, in fact, I don't care enough. I will never
buy that. All right. One last thing, this really grinds my gears. I know we spoke about this in
the past many times. Door dash. So Robin went out with her friends. I have not used it in a long time.
I got I'm kind of was over it now that not going to pay up for it anymore. Robin went out with
her friends over the weekend. So I was left to eat dinner by myself. I had ramen, love ramen,
spicy ramen. Very good. All right. So my ramen bowl was $17. The delivery fee was $249.
The fees and taxes were $447. And the tip was $4. So I paid $28 for a ramen bowl that cost $17.
Should've gone and picked it up. Well, I mean, yeah, but I was with the kids and it was like,
I didn't feel like it. You're paying up for convenience. That's on you now. You can't complain about
door dash anymore. It's on you. I it's just crazy. It is so much money. So go get it.
I'm not feeling sorry for you anymore for paying up for door dash. You've been complaining about
this for three years. Kids were in jambies. No, but I don't use there. This is why I don't use it
that much, but I was reminded. Yeah. But that's why you for this business to work, you have to pay
up for it, unfortunately. All right. Recommendations. I got a couple fly on the wall, the Dana Carvey,
David Spade podcast. That's Steve Martin Martin, short on. And I just love those guys.
Why don't I listen to that podcast more? They're great. It's so good. I just love the interaction
that those guys have. And the thing is like, they rip on each other incessantly, but they're like,
they're just very positive guys. They're not like, you know, a lot of comedians are like,
they seem like they have a lot of like interior pain and like, suffering and they then they become
comedians. These guys are the opposite. I love both their books. Born standing up to Steve Martin's.
And I must say is Martin shorts. And Steve Martin is almost eight years old. I think Martin
shorts in his seventies. I watched I still watch that show. Only murders in the building. It's on
season three now. Paul Rudzon and Merrill Streep is on. And it's it's it's kind of a cheesy show in
some ways. Still like it kind of like Ted Lasso. Like there's a bit of cheesiness that you're
willing to let go because it has because they're like seen so positive. So I'm still watching that.
I actually, but I can't just say with the I think I'm pretty sure that Dana Carvey had a rough
childhood. He did. Yes. Yeah. He did. But but those yeah, those guys, I just love the fact that
they're so positive. I the older I get the more I want just to have more positive people in my
life and not people complaining all the time. Oh, speaking of comedy. Did you see that? I don't
know why this was going around on on the interwebs this week. Did you see Will Ferrell's audition for
SNL? I did. Pretty good. Yeah. I think I've seen that before. His he pretends he pretends to be a cat
in his he's in his he's in his work office. And he's he picks up the phone says, uh, hold on,
I'm meeting lunch or whatever whatever he says. And then he just pretends to be a cat like hitting
the yarn ball or something. It's very funny. In college, we had one of our friends owned the
greatest SNL Will Ferrell years. And we would watch it like probably once a month at least. There
was there was no bigger phenom in my lifetime than him on SNL. Yeah. The farly one is pretty close
for me. Uh, I actually watched the new Adam Sandler movie on Netflix. The botnitz phone and his
his two daughters are in it. I think you should watch it. I I my wife and I were just looking for
something to watch in Sunday night and we put it on and it was like a more tone down Sandler than
I'm used to like one of the reasons his comedies haven't worked for me for the past 20 years because
they're just so over the top and like not funny. But this one was more tone down and about his
daughters having a botnitz. So which I I've been to one botnitz fund my life. I kind of you,
I'm sure you've been to many. And it really did like boggle my mind that it was kind of like a
wedding for this 13 year old girl with like my wife's cousins daughter or something. And uh,
they really nailed that whole thing. But Sandler's two daughters were in it. I'm like, oh boy,
this could go wrong. They're actually pretty good. And he I looked at it. He is like the dad of
these team girls and I and I feel like I'm going to blink in my two daughters and teenagers.
And so I'm looking I'm watching the movie from the dad perspective as Adam Sandler as the dad.
And it was like a 6.0 but like it it was it way defied expectations. I thought it was going to be
awful and it was actually pretty good. Is his wife in it? His wife's in it too. But she's not
she doesn't play his wife. She plays like a friend's wife. So it's a family affair. But it's
it's actually pretty funny. I will watch it. You I mentioned Paramount Plus. We're watching the
Joe Pickett series on Paramount Plus. Who's that? Uh, my all time favorite. Uh, novel about
Wyoming Game Warden. They turned it into a TV show. And they they there's no way they could
top the books. The books. It's a C.J. box books of Joe Pickett. I I what I read on every year.
If I'm on like the 23rd and 24th one. And it's about a Wyoming Game Warden who is investigating
murders and the TV. It has a little bit of like a CBS show to it like the vibes of the acting.
It's like the actors aren't like amazing. But the story is so good and they they picked the best
book to do do it on from the series. So I'm watching it in three episodes and we're we like it.
It's good. Yeah. It's good. It's not like it's not again. The acting is not like you have to
look past the acting a little bit. But it's the story is good. And you get to see Wyoming.
I watched River Wild last night. Not the River Wild but River Wild. The Netflix one.
And I'm probably two thirds of the way through. I'm very surprised at the Rod and Tomatoes
really. So the audience gives it a 35. The critics give it a 77. It's things. I mean,
I'm going to finish it. But it's not good. That's what I thought I watched half of it.
And I'm like I got to finish it now. But it's not good. It's not good at all. I'm sure the ending
is not better. Like it's just not great. If you haven't seen Interstellar, I mean, it's it's
absolutely worth watching. Even though it gets goes a little bit off the rails. But all right,
I watch where did I find this? Maybe prime. I don't know how I miss this movie. I really,
really don't. It's called fanboys. But have you ever heard of this? Is this like the Star Wars
one? Yeah. Big of the Star Wars convention. Yeah. I must have watched it a while ago.
I can not remember it though. So this is directly in my willhouse. It's like a silly
stoner movie with all the people. Seth Rogan, Jay Baruchel, Ruchel. Okay.
Baruchel, Kristen Bell, Chris Mark Kent and Sam Huntington are total. I mean,
you know, they're faces if you don't know the name. And then a million cameos. Shoot him.
Shoot him a Gavin, Carrie Fisher, Kevin Smith, Bill Shatner.
He's will take Craig Robinson. Danny Trejo. I forget. I mean,
and it's not great. There was a few really big laughs from me. I just, 2009.
I don't know how I miss this. Kevin Smith movie? No. He's just in it. He's just in it. Who
directed it? I was looking at that. Kyle Newman. What else did this guy do? Okay.
I don't think anything. Yeah, I don't know. I don't know how this one escaped me. Anyway,
it's not certainly not certainly not a great movie. But if you're looking for like a dumb
comedy with laughs from the crew that you love that you never saw, you could do worse.
All right. You came on strong in the end. I think you, I mean, it was still like two-thirds of
me one-third of you. You came on strong. Thank you. Listen, I've got this weird, I don't know what
it is. Just onto the weather through it's running. Keep drinking. Keep drinking. Get rid.
AnimalSphere is pie to gmail.com and we'll see you next time.