Today's animal spirits is brought to you by our friends at Y-Charts.
One of the things Y-Charts does besides giving you the ability to search out
different graphs and charts and data and information is they actually provide a
bunch of visuals for you for advisors especially.
So they have this 2023 Q1 Econ deck and they run this quarterly economic
update every quarter, which would make sense.
But we're at a Friday quarterly and we called quarterly and they did it monthly.
A bunch of good charts in here.
I want to talk about some first one.
They have more good.
They have all these different charts on one page.
Mortgage rates in originations.
So it shows 30 year mortgage and then mortgage originations and then refinancing
as a share of this.
And as you can see as rates have gone up, mortgage originations have just
going in the toilet.
We're going to talk about this today for real estate today.
Here's another good one.
It's the SP500 versus the 10 to treasury yield spread.
So this is just the difference between the 10 year treasury and the two year
treasury. And you can see here, anytime in the past, I don't know, 30 years when
the yield curve is inverted, it's done so like a miniscule amount.
This is a big one.
It hasn't been this big since 1980, 1980, 1981.
I don't know how much the two year, the two years yielding a hundred basis points
more than 10 year or was yes, which is pretty, pretty close.
It's come back in a little bit, but it's, that's a huge, huge spread.
Anyway, there's a bunch of other good charts like this.
If you want to want to check it out, go to our show notes.
There'll be a link in there where you can download it.
Just give me your email.
And if you want to sign up for wide charts, tell them animal spirits
sent you, you get 20% off that initial subscription.
Welcome to Animal Spirits, a show about markets, life and investing.
Join Michael Bannick and Ben Carlson as they talk about what they're reading,
writing and watching.
All opinions expressed by Michael and Ben are solely their own opinion and
do not reflect the opinion of Redholz wealth management.
This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon
for any investment decisions.
Clients of Redholz wealth management may maintain positions in the
securities discussed in this podcast.
Welcome to Animal Spirits with Michael and Ben.
There's a new jingle in your ear.
We've got new, new show tunes.
It's a new and improved animal spirits.
We started this show in 20, late 2017.
And we might have told a little bit of this about before, but it's good to go back.
We thought we were going to edit the show ourselves.
There was podcasts around, but it was not that the tools weren't as much as we
have today.
And we didn't know what we were doing.
Finally, we asked for some help from some other podcasts and said, what are we
doing?
We're wasting our time here, spinning our wheels.
And a bunch of people, I think, Matt Faber and Patrick O'Shaughnessy put
us in touch with Matthew Passi, who was a podcast producer for a few finance
programs.
And he basically laid out everything we need to do.
Here's the equipment you need to get.
Here's a software you need to get.
Here's the mics, everything.
Here's what you need to sign up for.
Here's how you upload it.
I'm going to do this for you.
And he's been our producer for the past five plus years.
And we never would have got the podcast off the ground about him.
I remember the first time we did a talk to your book, he had to come to New
York from New Jersey to help us.
We've had countless emails and phone calls with him to help.
And he's, he's brought us along this journey with, and again, without him, we
could have never done it.
He's helped us with equipment and producing.
And we had a mutual breakup recently.
Matthew built a successful business.
We have a production team in house that we're now using, Duncan and John and
Nicole are helping out with this.
And it just kind of made sense.
And now, so that means for us, we have a new, new read at the beginning.
We have new music.
And I don't think I've ever heard you talk about music once in your life.
If someone said like, what's Michael's favorite kind of music, I, I wouldn't
know what to say.
I don't think you'd listen to music maybe, but when Josh played us some, I don't know.
I'm probably, I'm probably a similar though.
Music is not like my big thing anymore.
But Josh played us some, some music in the office the other day.
And I couldn't tell if it was serious or a joke.
You were immediately out.
But I think we're, we're happy.
No, no, no, that was, that was, that song was literally a joke.
So I grew up, my dad was playing classic rock for me.
So Zeppelin, Jethro, those sort of bands.
Okay.
My first company's rock.
My first, yes, my first concert was Meatloaf, bad out of hell.
1994 1994 at MSJ.
Okay.
Anyway, yeah, we cannot thank Matthew enough.
He's been tremendous.
If anybody is starting a podcast, they're still up and running.
He's just been an incredible partner for us.
So Matthew, thank you for everything that you've done for us and we're excited
about having the capabilities with, with Duncan and the team to be able to
control our own destiny.
So very exciting times for us.
All right.
One more housekeeping item before we get started with the show.
Ben and I are going to be speaking, doing a live animal spirits on Monday, May 22nd.
At the Wealthstack Conference in Hollywood, Florida, which, uh, I guess it's like
sorted by Fort Lauderdale between Fort Lauderdale and Miami, maybe it's in that
vicinity.
It's on the east coast of Miami.
I'm Florida.
Excuse me.
It's in Florida.
That's all I care about.
Actually, I'm kind of freaking out a little bit because I said yes to this sort
of not really thinking about the fact that the Knicks actually are playing in my
in, uh, in, in, in May, which is something that was never, never on my radar.
So.
I might, depending on when the games are, I might have to change my flight to fly
in and fly out.
We'll see.
Either way, I'm very excited about about going.
Yes.
And anytime you can have a conference in Florida, you have to go.
Right.
That's why they do these nice places.
Well, that'd be, oh, we were saying, uh, we will be drinking Miami V.
I think Miami V is the plural of Miami V.
Yep.
And tropical bros and bird dogs.
We have to.
We'll be, we'll be in this in comfy.
All right.
From Ryan D trick, this is the, what is it?
Barons online, big money poll out of 130 managers pulled only 6% of their clients
were bullish, 63% are neutral, 31% are bearish.
So I guess you can even really.
I have questions about this.
This is like they're asking money managers.
To tell them how bullish or bearish their clients are.
This doesn't really sound like a scientific survey.
No, not.
Do you think your clients are bullish or bearish?
Let's go bearish.
Yeah.
So I guess that's why neutral is kind of the hedge there, but that is interesting.
You, you would maybe want to know whether the managers are more bullish or bearish,
but this is, these are more professional money managers as opposed to wealth management.
But I don't know if we would ever even think about our clients being bullish or bearish, right?
Hopefully they're bullish on the long term.
Otherwise, what's the point of investing?
But in the short term, you know, I guess it doesn't.
Isn't everyone bearish in the short term just like by the way human nature is?
Who's like, yeah, I'm bearish long term, but I'm actually bullish in the short term.
It does feel like we're in some sort of middle ground, though, where people are really this whole year of kind of just waiting.
I know stocks are up and we'll get into the NASDAQ being up a lot in a minute, but it seems like people are just kind of in the middle ground.
Like, OK, the world didn't completely fall apart, but it doesn't mean that like everything is totally out of the woods.
And so I think people being in the middle is, it's kind of makes sense.
But can I can I just say one more thing here?
So to this point about about 31% of their clients being bearish, then there's another question that says describe your current asset allocation.
And it's 62% stocks, 21% bonds, 9% catch 8% other.
Doesn't sound like their position to bearish.
So watch what they do know what they say kind of thing.
Always.
That makes sense.
Yeah.
So I looked for a blog post at some of the worst years in the stock market history to figure out what happened next year because we have had it doesn't always work like this, but we've had 2022 seems like a completely separate time from 2023.
And it's not like it all of a sudden happened after December 31st things changed.
Things were already kind of in motion in the fourth quarter of the year, I guess.
But the NASDAQ composite was down more than 32% last year.
And it's up through this was through Friday.
It was up 16% or so through the year.
This is the composite, not the 100 because the composite I have dated going back to the 70s.
So I looked at all the double digit down years and I think there were seven of them and you can look at what happens the next year.
Five out of seven years is a huge up year, right?
Like 45, 50, 60, 30% gains, but then there's those other two years where you're down 20 or 30%.
The S&P is actually pretty similar.
There isn't much middle ground.
It's usually after a really bad year, stocks go crazy or they continue to get slaughtered.
So I guess the one thing would be like if we're through the inflation crisis,
then it would make sense that 2023 could be a good year.
If some sort of crisis or recession hits, then it would make sense for this to be another bad year.
So I guess the range is so wide, but this crisis.
Like some a couple of bank runs leading to a pullback in consumer credit like that.
Don't you think it would have to be a recession at this point?
I can't tell.
I'm saying that's what we need.
It's a recession.
Right.
But I still can't tell if if a very mild recession would end up being bullish for stocks or if it would
if things would just fall in line in a stock market, it would have to fall because of recession.
You could talk me into either scenario.
Yeah.
I saw I was doing some research on this and I know the last three years, whatever seems pretty nuts.
And you shared this morning on Slack, how you're just going through everything we've been through
in the last like three years and it's it's a lot of stuff.
But just from the stock market perspective, I looked at 1995
to 2003 for the NASDAQ.
Look at these returns up 40 up 23 up 22 up 40 up 86 down 39 down 20 down 31 up 51.
This is all in consecutive years.
There wasn't a single year where you didn't have a plus or minus 20% gain or loss.
That's hard.
It's I guess the point is like it seems like the current situation is is like unprecedented in some
ways it is.
In other ways, like markets have been just as crazy or crazier than this.
We've been speaking about international markets and in Canvas is quarterly review, they broke down
some of the fundamentals of US developed and emerging markets.
This is in local currency, inflation adjusted from December 2021 through the present.
And wouldn't you know it?
US is underperforming in a fairly significant way.
These are just fundamentals from the past 15 months or whatever it is, 16 months sales growth
in the US up 8% develop markets at 16 emerging that's 10 earnings US down 5% develop markets up 15
emerging up for and profit margins similar story there.
Pretty interesting.
I never I never would have guessed this for the sales and earnings of because this is local
currency to this now like so this isn't like an inflation adjusted.
Yeah.
Well, but to that point, I don't know who posted this chart, but it's from Bank of America.
It's a chart the US dollar has begun fourth bear market over the past 50 years.
That's what there's you know, that's where they're saying this is going.
We'll see.
But in previous regimes of dollar weakness, these this is this is big potential macro implications.
Like if there were to be a dollar bear market, this is a big deal.
The funny thing, yeah, the funny thing that would probably mean more international performance.
The funny thing about it, if you look at it over the long term over 40, 50 years or so,
the dollar moves around a lot, but then kind of gets back to where it started.
Like there's a huge peaks and valleys along the way, but then it just kind of goes nowhere
over the long term, right?
It's it kind of comes back to that center line there.
All right, Connor, Sen had a good we've been talking a lot about demographics lately.
We're getting questions on it.
A lot of stuff with boomers and millennials.
Everyone kind of just glosses over Gen X because I don't know.
No one cares about Gen X.
And I think Gen X actually kind of likes that, right?
They like to be the forgotten generation, right?
So Connor, since as we felt the vibes when millennials were fighting to get jobs
in apartments in the 2010s, we see it now how it feels when millennials are fighting to buy houses.
They're urged to buy stocks that still five to 10 years away.
But when that happens, you won't be able to buy the S&P sub 20 times EPS.
My initial inclination is to say that he's probably right.
That the demographic wave of millennials when they start hitting those stock market years
and, you know, 40s and 50s, probably, and really buying that the boomers didn't completely
cause the 80s and 90s bull market, but they had they were a big part of it, right?
Now, the other hand, the other side of this would be, well, wait, wait, we have we have boomers kind
of canceling them out, right?
The boomers will be selling as the millennials come become buying.
So it's not going to push things up as much.
But remember my was it 2018 or 2019?
I went out of the lemon said we're going to have a housing shortage in the 2020s.
Remember my call there?
I do kind of think that the millennials could have that same impact on the stock market.
And you'll see just a continued upward trajectory and valuations and people will say,
I don't get it.
This makes no sense.
I think I think there's a good chance that happens.
I wouldn't pound the table on it.
I like the idea.
Yeah, I'm not sure.
I don't really have a strong feelings on this.
It's definitely an interesting take.
I wish I like had more here, but I just don't have strong opinions.
I guess I would ask Connor, is this the automatic deposit, automatic purchases
like through the 401k or because I don't really see like a whole generation of people
having this sort of like market.
I think that's a big part of it.
But that but that but that what I just like could be a huge part of it.
Like what is the purchasing power for the millennial generation?
Well, I don't know if there's 70 million of us as we come into our peak earning years.
Yeah, my my whole thing is that this might this might sound like
an obvious question or a question with an obvious answer.
And this may be an existential question, but like does does the relentless bid put
a floor in stocks?
I just don't know that I'm there yet.
I don't know if that can be proven proven and disproven.
It can be disproven with the lost decade, but I don't know how you like prove that.
You know what I mean?
I do understand why so many people are thinking through this demographic stuff,
though, like we I've written about this.
We've just we've never seen a generation as large and wealthy as the boomers live
as long as they're going to.
And then you have the millennials kind of coming up behind them and Gen X is just
as wealthy too.
We we saw last last week that in the generational comparable.
So it does matter.
Robert Schiller, one of his books talked about this and he kind of said like,
listen, demographics is one of the easiest things to map out.
You're not exactly right.
But so if everyone knows the demographic stuff is coming, don't you think the
stock market would price that in already?
So I kind of I do have strong feelings about this.
I have strong feelings that any argument that the boomers are going to dump their
stocks on the market is very misguided because will there be some boomers that need
to say I don't even like all the boomers.
It sounds very pejorative.
I don't like that.
Well, well, our parents need to sell stocks to pay for their living expenses.
It does funny how just just saying boomers sounds like it's a bad thing, but that's
literally their nickname.
No, I know.
I just I don't like it.
Um, yes, of course, a lot of parents will sell stocks to fund their living
expenses, but guess who owns the stock market?
Like who really owns the stock market?
It's really it's people with a ton of wealth.
You think Jeff Bezos or maybe not Bezos, maybe you think Bill Gates is going to be
selling down his Microsoft stock to pay for his, uh, his golf club or his golf
country club?
No.
So I don't I don't buy that argument at all.
I don't either.
It's because the 10% owns 90% of the stocks.
Right.
And that's either going to be passed down.
Yeah, it's not all going to be those stocks are never getting sold.
No, they're good chart from Apollo.
I do think that even if things slow down and like we things have to cool off a
little bit, households are in so much better shape.
We've talked about this a little bit.
There's a couple of charts in here I want to look at.
So one of them is us household balance sheets, uh, household leverage ratio of
liabilities to net worth.
It's coming up a little bit, but look at how, look at how much higher it got in the
last crisis and how it's just been in a straight line down ever since then, as
people have repaired their balance sheets.
Obviously a lot of this is housing market and stock market related.
Uh, here's another one mortgage debt, uh, as a percentage of potential GDP, it
peaked in, you know, 2008 and has come down ever since.
I think this is the thing that people don't get is that like the net worth
stuff has gone up so much for so many people that the liabilities have not kept
pace at all with the assets.
And that puts people in a really good place to weather any storm, even if we do
get a mild recession.
And I think that's why like, if you're calling for a session that has to your
baseline, unless something goes horribly, horribly wrong.
So how do we get a horrible recession?
The, the fact that the housing market didn't really do it or hasn't done it yet.
That would have been my, my inclination is mortgage rates go to 7% and the housing
market falls off a cliff.
That's how you get a pretty nasty recession.
The fact that that hasn't happened.
It would have to be something complete.
I don't know.
Something completely out of the left field that I couldn't even think of right now.
Think about how much has been thrown at us.
So you mentioned that thing that I'm writing.
Let me just read it to you.
This was sort of like holy shit when I wrote this, not that we didn't know, but
just to write all this down.
The economy has been through it.
Sorry.
I'm reading myself.
The economy has been through a lot of the past couple of years.
We turned it off and turned it back on again like we were restarting a video game.
A combination of fiscal stimulus and supply chain disruptions led to an inflationary
spike, not seen in over four decades.
All the ports in Stuck in Los Angeles wreaked havoc on many consumer facing
companies.
Semi-conductors were in short supply.
Used car prices went through the roof.
By the way, remember 2022, how much time do we spend on the earnings cause of
Walmart and Target worrying about their inventory?
Was that going to cause a recession?
I might have been.
I might have written a post called recession during the inventory stuff.
Do you remember that?
I was going to say that in our Google Doc, we always add categories in a while.
Supply chain is one of them.
I think we get rid of it now.
I thought we did.
Still there.
Still there.
We got to get rid of it.
All right.
Amidst all of the chaos, Russia invaded Ukraine, which sent energy and commodity prices vertical.
To slow all of this down, the federal reserve undertook a historic increase in interest rates
basically straight up for the last year in counting.
That caused the housing market, at least the existing one, to all but freeze over.
It also caused several financial institutions to mis-manage their interest rate risk
and let some of the biggest bank runs this country has ever seen.
Rising interest rates destroyed any appetite for risk taking with
tech being at the epicenter of the enthusiasm unwind.
Venture funding dried up.
IPOs ground to a halt.
And even megacap tech companies were forced to do mass layoffs.
Along the way, the S&P 500 fell 25%.
And the NASDAQ 100 lost more than a third of its value.
The $3 trillion office real estate market is going to experience some pain over the next
few years with the occupancy is down and borrowing costs up.
And the cherry on top of this discussing Sunday is the looming contraction in credit.
It's wild that we've experienced all of this and still we're not in a recession.
It's pretty insane.
Yes, it is.
And some people would say, of course, because the government printed trillions of dollars.
That's why we didn't.
But still, I remember when the Fed and the government was sending checks out
and the Fed went to zero and the Fed did everything it did in the pandemic.
And everyone said, good luck.
It's going to do nothing.
You're pushing on a string.
And we did it.
Yes, this could have been way, way worse.
And that's again why it wouldn't surprise me if we go the rest of this year, no recession.
And maybe in the 2024, it still takes a while for all that stuff to work out.
So this, I'm trying to think of a segue here because I got nothing.
Sorry, come on a blank.
There's a chart from Vanda Research showing equity and ETF purchase from individual investors.
Now, the key to this chart is it excludes 401Ks and other retirement accounts.
So it's just brokerage money after tax dollars in custodial accounts.
So this is really how much people are moving on the margins, which makes sense because you're
to write the to your realness bid thing, the foreign case stuff is going to happen regardless.
And that right.
Right.
So it doesn't matter.
Although maybe countering what I said earlier that those stocks are never getting sold,
it really is the marginal buyer and seller stocks.
I don't know that I totally will disagree with what I just said 10 minutes ago about the boomers
not doing anything, but it is the marginal buyer anyway or seller.
Look at this.
They came in 2020 and they haven't left.
They haven't left, which is nuts.
They're still buying a ton.
So there's like a small bars and then it spikes and the spike has stayed elevated.
How do we explain the fact that we've seen a really nasty bear market,
a lot of the stocks that these individual investors loaded up on got killed,
and yet they haven't they haven't backed off?
That is surprising.
Can I maybe explain some of this away by after finally seeing some losses,
people went from mutual funds to ETFs since this is just ETFs?
No, no, that's that's that's I don't know.
No, but you're right. This is fairly surprising.
People came in and have not left yet.
I haven't seen the new Gallup poll that shows that because you remember in the 80s,
it was like 20% of all households on stocks and it didn't take to the 90s,
so got the 50% and it's basically stayed at 50% since the late 90s, early 2000s.
I wonder if we've gotten any more bump up since then and these past three to five years,
whether there are now more households in the stock market or not.
I want to tell you this real quick.
So I started my career every time I say that I left, but the first job I had in the financial
services industry was at a life insurance company.
I've always been interested in the articles or the stories about tech companies replacing
insurance agents. So this is in the journal over the weekend.
A decade ago, technology started as for planning to steam while the stodgy life insurance industry.
They thought the glad handling of the glad handling life insurance agent who cornered
customers at little league games and closed deals at the kitchen table was a relic.
Snazzy websites and sophisticated analytics would replace the 101 sales pitches and tedious
application process that often involve a medical exam. The agents won the battle and now the tech
firms are courting them. Of seven startups that together raise more than 1.2 billion dollars to
sell life insurance directly to consumers, at least five now promote services to help
agent sell policies. The co-founder of a company called Sprout said our vision was let's modernize
the industry. He assumed they could sell policies without agents as it turned out.
Many customers had health issues that disqualified them from the available policies and only 30 to 40
percent of applicants made a purchase. Many of the tech firms now better appreciate an old industry
adage. Life insurance is sold not bought. They got a quote from somebody in the industry who was
like I'm not surprised that this didn't work out given what we know about the need for people to
really go in there and sell. This is a simple but powerful idea. It's hard to disrupt any
industry let alone gigantic and trench industries with technology from people who don't really know
the industry. Outside, as I come in and say, well there's got to be a better way. We could fix this,
we could replace this, we could speed this up. If you have no domain expertise,
I might be completely wrong here. Maybe some of the biggest disruptions have come from outsiders,
but I don't believe that to be the norm. I think if you don't know the intricacies of an industry,
it's very hard to come in there with technology and just upward everything that's been built.
I do think we've learned that technology has a really hard time disrupting the world of finance.
Consumers for sure, technology has helped, but the whole FinTech revolution has not really
unseated any of the big players. JAPAN WEREN's tax insurance did seem so disruptable.
If you just were like, why wouldn't you just be able to click, click, click, get your exam,
boom, boom, boom, but it's not that easy, apparently.
Yeah, I think the financial like banking and housing, the tech industry,
the technology sector tried to come in and revolutionize it and it just hasn't happened.
Back to our other thing, I did find the Gallup poll. This is from May 2022.
It's gone from about 52% in 2016 to 58% now.
Wait, what house? What house? What house?
Stock ownership, it hit 60% in 1998 and it went down after 2008 and now it's back up to 58%.
So it did dip after 2008 and now it's come back. The percentage of people who actually own stock
in some form, individual shares, neutral fund ETF. So the last few years it has seen an uptick
in household owning stock, which it's a good thing.
So we've spoken about the transcript before. They put together, they do amazing
compilations of earnings, which we're going to get into today. We've got a busy, busy week for
earnings. We've got Google and Microsoft tonight and Chipotle is always in there. We had Spotify
this morning, we had GM, we had McDonald's. Did you still give up on Chipotle for lunch?
I mean, you can't because there's one literally next door to our office in New York.
Well, it's funny you should ask me. I haven't had Chipotle in probably four months,
but on Sunday after the nickname, I had to go back to the office and I had a burrito.
Well, credit to you for going to the office on a Sunday.
No, I love my bag there. I wasn't working.
All right, this is from a manpower group, which is I don't even want to speak out of turn.
It's a temp agent. It's like a temp agency. I say employment agency.
Okay. After months of a remarkably strong US labor market, we are now seeing more companies
across various industries recalibrating their workforces after a period of bullish hiring.
Is there such a thing as bearish hiring? I guess it would be bearish firing,
shifting their focus towards more intentional hiring for specialist skills,
delaying hiring decisions and reducing their demand. Okay.
All right. I don't know. A little more selective. A little more selective.
But speaking of bullish, I was out. Robin and I went out to dinner on Saturday night.
We went back to Park Slope, which is where we live for a few years.
Haven't been there in, I don't know, five years maybe.
Who stole the name first? Brooklyn or isn't Park Slope in Utah?
Maybe. Who ate it first? Okay. That's probably, I don't know.
Can you send me a text the other night saying you're in Park Slope and I thought you were skiing
in Utah or something?
So I said, so I said, so we went to an excellent restaurant. We had, what do we have for apps?
We had like, it's Park City. I'm an idiot. Okay. Disregard.
Forgivable. We had an incredible barata and then like fried like zucchini flowers or something
with like pejuto in the middle. I don't know. It was out of this world. And I said, based on these
appetizers, I'm super bullish on my chicken parm and she was like bullish, bullish hat. I don't,
I don't know, bullish mids. I don't understand it references it.
Yeah. And I was like, wow, you really, really don't listen to my podcast. Okay.
So I was in New York last week for a couple of days and remember last week on the pod,
I just said, I just can't understand how people can pay so much money to live in New York.
And then we went out and walked around on Friday and like a sunny day. The night before we went
to like an amazing dinner. And then on Friday, we walked around and we went to the West Village
and we went to one of our favorite restaurants there. And then I thought, okay, now I get it.
We walked through the parks and it's like sometimes from the outside in, you can think like, why would
anyone ever pay this much to live in a place? It's ridiculous. You have a small place and it's
crowded and all these things and it's not easy to get around and get stuff. And then you go
experience all the good stuff about it and go, okay, now I see why people do this. It totally makes
sense. It was pretty, it was a pretty special afternoon. Just the vibes of all the young people
doing their thing. It was, yeah, that was fun. This is interesting. Portsy Capital tweeted
narrative violation. Google gained search engine market share in Q1. How about that?
I mean, do you know anyone who actually uses Bing or uses, I mean, people use chat GPT to
search, they're not searching like they would on Google. I feel like it's two separate things.
They may use it as a tool to help them do stuff or learn, but they're not using it in the same way
as Google. No, come on. Yeah. All right. Real estate. This to me is one of the,
we're talking demographics again because that's our MO lately, I guess.
Apartment list has this real estate update and it's called the Millennial Home Ownership Report by
Rob Warnock. Let me use some of this stuff before. This chart is amazing. Generational home ownership
rates, 1985 to 2022. It shows silent generation baby boomers, Gen X. And you can see they all go
up into the right over time. Silent was already higher obviously. So baby boomers are at a little
less than 78%. Gen X is at like close to 70. Millennials are at 51 and a half percent.
And I think if you don't assume that the Millennial one is going to continue to go up
and reach those other levels, then you're nuts. 70, 75%, something like that. It might take some
people a little bit longer. And the crux of this article was saying how why some people don't own
a house as millennials. It's obviously unaffordable in some places and hard to buy and all these
things that we've talked about. But this, you talked about a floor under stock market, I would be
much more apt to put a floor under real estate prices because of this. I think Millennial household
formation is just going to continue to happen. And this is going to move up. And in 20 years,
it's going to be at 70, 75%. And I do think that the increase we've seen in the last three years
is going to be looked at back as like this giant leap higher in housing prices. And
unfortunately, that's like the new permanent plateau for housing prices, even if we continue
to have a little bit of a crash in here. Yeah, I agree. That was one of my predictions of 2023,
was that housing prices would not crash. And so far, so good there. One of the things that we
forgot to mention last week that... Well, that was one of your top 10 predictions. No housing
price crash? Yes. We didn't talk about last week the housing stocks, Lenar, Paul Dehar,
Horden, and Shemana. Right after we actually stopped for corn, I was like,
damn it, I can't believe we've got to mention that. They're all back at all 10 highs almost, right?
So 52 highs at least? Yeah, definitely. Yeah. So it makes sense. People buying home building
stocks are not dumb. They're reporting earnings and they're crushing it. I think if you just
thought, if you just knew that mortgage rates would go up to 7%, and that the housing market
would essentially freeze, except for home building, new construction, you would think that home
building stocks would get crushed, right? They're pretty heavily correlated to mortgage rates.
But... And I'm sure some people nailed this trade, but given that so many people were locked into
their home with... I don't know if it's 60% of all mortgages under 4.5% whatever the numbers is,
that the only houses available are new construction. And these companies aren't firing and their
stocks are reflecting that pretty well. With supply being so low, it's the only game in town.
Yeah. I think home building ETF is up 17% this year. So it's kind of in line with the NASDAQ.
Here's another good one. I just had to mention this because it mentions my hometown. So they
looked at millennial home ownership rate by metropolitan area. The highest one on this list,
Grand Rapids, Michigan, nearly 70%. And then you contrast that with Los Angeles and San Jose and
San Francisco, which are all around 30 less than 30%. Look at all these Midwestern cities on here.
Grand Rapids, Minneapolis, Cincinnati, St. Louis, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Detroit.
It's all Midwestern places that have much higher millennial home ownership rates. Why? Because
how is it actually for it? Come to the flyover states people. But yeah, that generation of
homeowner chart is great. Here's another one from Redfin. And Redfin kind of shows this
at the same time. This is like the net worth one we looked at last year. So it shows actually
Gen Z is right on track. Millennials are a little low compared to Gen X and boomers.
But everyone kind of follows the same path in your 20th. And I think millennials,
it makes sense that they're a little behind because of the 2008 crisis and people just going
to school longer. But again, we're kind of right on the same path. And this is another good one.
What age cohort? And they break them down by 10 year cohorts. Buy is the biggest chunk of
houses per year. And it breaks. It goes back to 2018. And you can see it's younger millennials.
People 25 to 34 are the biggest buyers. The next one is 35 to 44. And they make up
eyeballing it 50% of all purchases, maybe a little bit more.
Well, I'm an older millennial. And as such, I have to think about them break. I'll be back in two
minutes. All right, I'm back. I am cursed with a small bladder. It is what it is. Can't, you know,
can't fix it. I am too. Have you did you pass that down to your son? Because I did too. I also
have a small bladder. I pass it on. I know he pees all the time. It's awful. Before we move on to
great quarter guys. I got one more housing thing. Okay. All right. I do feel like these
these headlines are right, but maybe not. It's like a correlation causation. So why it pays to buy a
house homeowners became 40 times wealthier than renters in the past decade. This is in the USA
today. It showed that over the past decade, the median price home in the US gained $190,000 in
value, making the typical homeowner 40 times wealthier than if they had remained a renter
according to a new report. And I'm showing these these different areas where how much you made.
And a lot of these these studies will show that if you own a home, you're much wealthier than
someone who rents. And I do think that just because I think there's a disconnect there that like
if you don't buy a house, you can't become wealthy. I think it's just because for most people that
is their biggest financial asset and it's gone up a lot. So that helps. But I don't think it necessarily
means like if you rent, you're not going to build a high net worth. I don't I don't really subscribe
to that. That like you have to buy a house if you want to be rich. Right? Like that's the next step
you have to take. Yeah, I think the thing is though, if you live in the suburbs, you just there's not
you got to buy a house, right? Yeah, that's the thing. So in Grand Rapids, it's had 70% of
millennials on homes. There's not a big rental market here. Just like if you want a house,
there's nowhere to rent. But here's the thing though. So this is different than having a portfolio
of stocks or having a bunch of money in your savings account. Like how do people use this wealth,
right? Like a lot of people say like, great, your housing price went up. But now if you want to
move into a new house, then you have to pay higher price. I mean, obviously you could trade down
or whatever and you can borrow against that. I do think owning a house and having wealth in your
home gives you greater flexibility. Like we've you and I have used our home equity line of credit
occasionally to do stuff and I think it gives you the financial flexibility. But besides using it as
a new down payment on a new home or potentially having it paid off someday, I don't think the
wealth in your home, it's just not as easy to access or do something with as other forms of wealth.
It's very it's a little more restrictive. So I do think having this is great for people,
but then how do you actually tap it and how do you use it to your advantage?
I think that's a problem for a lot of people. I'm doubling down on my take that I made a couple
of weeks ago about a mansion not necessarily just being about the square feet of a house
or square footage. When we were in Hershey Park, we were there's a road there called mansion road.
And those were mansions. You know why? Those houses have to be 5,000 square feet or more.
Well, I'm sure they I mean they looked at their big big houses, but they all had very, very nice
plots of land. Yeah, I did that as part of it. If you have an outdoor space that you can use,
that's like additional square footage in your house. I agree. All right. So I was looking at I
want to start with American and also wait, I just want I want to put this out there for you.
You told me last week that your your your grass just gets eaten alive by what your dog
or your kids or something and you were thinking about putting astroturf in. And I think I would
love to do that someday, but I don't I don't ever see it happening. Why? I mean, it's not cheap.
I'm getting a quote. I got a quote, which is it's too much. I'm probably not going to do it,
but I'm going to have somebody come to the backyard just to have like a fence like you.
My yard is open and it's much bigger. Not not the brag. I have to wait in your yard than you.
But wouldn't I mean doing it would be kind of funny if like your neighbors had grass then you
just have like right up to their grass. You have astroturf going in. Yes. Yes.
Yes. It looked weird, but but my my backyard grass got destroyed in the hurricane. So it's just
it's it's like a it's just it's blotchy. It's like a it's like a it's like a man's beer that has like
gaps in it. You don't need me interest. So I had the very minimum need to re-suck because it just
looks awful. But anyway, maybe I'll put that on my credit card. Speaking of American Express,
see what I did there Ben. That's a that's a pro move right there. All right. This is interesting.
The year over year in consumer services build business boomers are up 8%. The Gen Xers are up
14%. Millennials and Gen Z up 28% on Amex. Those are earners. I swear you had this chart in here last
week. No, I didn't. They just no it was it was it was back. Who was last week? We had a lot of
banks last week is Bank of America. Keep up. Oh, but I feel like the numbers were similar though,
right? Okay. Well, maybe I'm just noticing trends here. I'm spotting trends left and right.
And you look at there's another chart showing a card member loans and card member receivables
credits metrics. So 30 days past due and corporate net write-offs and yes, they are climbing.
But well below pre pandemic levels. How about that? In pre pandemic, 2.2% were either 30 days past
due or write-offs. That was 1.2% last quarter in the in the fourth quarter, 1.6% of the in the first
quarter starts rising. But again, 1.6% versus 2.2%. The consumers are right. Yeah, still doing better
than we were. And honestly, pre pandemic things were just fine too. Not the economy is falling off
a cliff in 2019. Hardly. Hardly. So it's not a bullshit count up. I have this you got
a mixed up hold up here. I did trade in my chase sapphire reserve. I wasn't getting enough out of it
for an American Express gold silver platinum something. Whatever the American Express one is.
I like it so far. I get uber point or I get picks up uber for me. I did the clear that you
mentioned to me in New York, but they scan your eyes. It's pretty clear. It's great. Yeah, it's
great until you realize that the TSA Precheck line is way shorter than the clear, but I had
to do it anyway just because I went up to scan my eyes for me. How's bed? How's this for elitist?
I have both. So do I. Because I don't I clear is only I don't have clear and grand rapids,
right? It's only a bigger airport. Oh, the T I mean, I don't know how much clear is I don't know,
but you probably get a promotional deal for what 100 bucks? The pick up the your whole clear through
the amex 189 bucks a year. Precheck is precheck is nothing. It's just a mild pain in the belt.
You had to go to staples to get but whatever well worth it. All right,
this blew my face. So if you look at their expenses, the card member rewards
$3.8 billion expense for the first quarter. Wow. I would love to know how much of that never
gets used. Like kind of like, you know, they always say like the holidays, certain like
millions or billions of dollars and gift cards never get spent, whatever the number is.
I think that's a different credit cards. No, I think but my positive, I think that's a direct
expense. I think that that that's actually what was hidden used. You know what I mean? Like
if you used amex points to buy a plane ticket, I think that's what it's talking about. I could
be wrong. They also have another charge showing travel entertainment build businesses. Year over
year restaurants up 20% logic 31% airline 60% people are still doing the damn thing.
Still doing it. Have you seen airline tickets come down? I've at least seen your like tickets
level out a little bit. They're not going anymore. Actually, yeah, my fight to Holly to
Fort Lauderdale was 350 bucks. That's not bad. Which is very reasonable.
All right. First Republic reported last night. This is not great. The stock is down another
27% this morning. I just want to read from what Bloomberg posted from I guess the banks earnings.
The recent industry events beginning in March 2023 have impacted the bank's funding sources
as of March 9th. Oh, it's down almost 30% now. Is that as a very like clean house at all at that
bank or not really? I'm not going to say that I just said it was down 30% I don't we don't do
that here. We don't call each other up and not listening. That's not a thing that we do.
They are doing layoffs. So as of March 9th total deposits were $173 billion down 1.7% from year
in 2022. Then on March 10th found the highly public closer of the large regional bank first
Republic began experiencing unprecedented outflows on March 16th first Republic received
uninsured deposits totaling $30 billion from a group of America's largest banks.
All right. They say deposit activity began to stabilize beginning the week of March 27th and
has remained stable through Friday, April 21st total deposits were down only 1.7% from March 31st
to April 21st. So all right. And they said that also reflects like seasonal tax stuff. So
as far as this report lays out the the rush has subs has subsided.
This stock hit its all time high in November of 2021. It's down 95% since then.
It's a lot. And but I think total deposits are down 40%. So yeah, not good. Not good at all.
All right. General Motors on Tuesday raised key guidance for 2023 after reporting first quarter
results at top Wall Street's top and bottom line. It's like good. A bead and raise. Yeah,
that's pretty good. Look at this chart. Then of their EV sales. They went from a 0.3% market share
in the first quarter of 2022 to 8.4% four quarters later. That's wild.
I assumed I would be getting an EV from an X car, which is like 2024. We talked about this
car dealership guy. I think it might be the next one now. I'm going to wait it out until they're
a little cheaper. I think I'm going to wait till all these places get more online and they become
closer to the gas powered cars. So I love my new Jeep Wrangler. I got the hybrid. I think I spoke
about this on the show, but it's got it. So it's a hybrid, but it only has a 30 miles. You get 30
miles on the charge, 30 miles, which is not great. And it takes 14 hours to get to a full charge,
which is absurd. So I bought the Jeep Charger, which is not super cheap, but it cuts it down
for like three or four hours. So the cost of the charger is basically the amount of money you save
on gas. Are you probably? Probably. Probably. All right, Pepsi reported earnings.
Buko at Buko Capital, which is a good following Twitter, he said, wow, Pepsi just threw up 40%
revenue growth on zero volume growth. Then call it Cantonese tweeted. Pepsi Co exec on pricing says,
quote, with the pricing that we have taken already in most of our businesses around the world,
that should be sufficient. End quote. I hope so. I'm paying like 799 for a 12 pack of diapepepsi now.
Come on. So Ben, you said that earlier that
the corporations were absolutely absolutely put in advantage, put in their hand in the cookie jar
or the honeypot. I don't know. They're doing something. I don't like it.
Yeah. Yeah. So hopefully it sounds like it's it's relaxing a little bit and they're slowing down,
but they definitely took advantage of this. All right. So we've got, as I said, we've got another
busy rest of the week, but bespoke tweeted. Does this look like an earnings apocalypse
of roughly 60 earnings results this morning? EPS beat rate 77% sales, B rate 73%
companies raising guidance, five companies lowering guidance to I think S&P earnings are
tracking for a 6% decline quarter year over year or something like that. So nobody's
nobody's super optimistic about this this quarter, but so far, not bad at all.
All right. Probabilities recession in 2023, 2024, 2025. What would your breakdown be?
Mine would be like 10 50 40.
I I'm not aligned with you at all. So for 2023, I would say 30. No, I'd say,
I'd say 35 for 2023. I'd say 55 for 2024 and 10 for 2025. I think there's a very minimal chance
that we push it out to 2025. I think 40, 40, 55, final answer 40, 55, 55.
All right. I'm becoming more and more open to the idea of this thing just continuing to chug
along. Maybe I'm wrong. Till 2025, Duncan, maybe, maybe Paul, maybe Paul, one will the recession start.
All right. Here's survey of the week that I do not believe. All right. This is from
Ernst and Young, Wolf Management Unit. Nearly half of millennials turned to cash amidst market
volatility last year by comparison, just 34% of Gen X and 24% of baby boomers sought safety and cash.
There's no way. They're kind of saying everyone had to cash last year, and then they missed the
run up in the SP, which is up almost 20% since the October lows. There's just no way that many
people went to cash. What was the number? Half of all millennials in this survey.
Is it put up the cartoon of like who answers surveys people are 95% of people answer surveys
whatever that cartoon is? This is just no way. No.
If this many people went to cash, that would have caused a more severe crash.
All right. Good one from Friend of the Show, Ramp Capital. He, in his newsletter last week,
wrote about how got reached out to Unlinked In, someone, a recruiter, talked about the job and
said it could be an extra 50 to 60% in compensation if he takes the new job. Sounds great, right? But
he said if he did it, he would have to go in four to five days a week to the job. In his current role,
he has way more flexibility. He has young kids at home. He's weighing the options of
I could make way more money. I just bought a new house. I want to provide for my family versus
or I could say so the job, it's way more flexible. It pays less, but I get to work at home and I get
to see the kids more and I get to do all this other stuff. His conclusion was kind of like,
well, to me, it seems like the flexibility matters way more. I think a lot of young people who went
through this period in the pandemic, I think a lot of mindsets have changed in that direction.
Can I say but but and flexibility is a luxury because you have to be at the point
where your bills are good before you can get to that point. I think most people that get to the
point of financial freedom at that point, once they get to whatever they need to get to say,
you know what? I'm good. $30,000, whatever it is. God bless doesn't change my life.
I'm just going to do what is best for me and my family.
I do feel like that no matter how much you make, though, if you said add 50% onto it,
anyone would go, oh, yeah, I could handle making them like the answer for how much do you need to
make? It's always more, right? For most people, but I'm just saying that I think this
would be a different scenario. If work from home and pandemics off never happened and someone
offered you, here's two jobs. Here's one with 50% more pay, but you got it in the office.
And here's another one you can work at home. If you've never had that experience,
I think you'd say, I got to take the pay for sure. And I think just the fact that we're
forcing this depends what you own your life. Yes. Yes. I agree. The family thing is a big,
big part of that having the flexibility with a family is.
After spending time, so putting my kids on the bus, I wouldn't trade that for anything. But also,
again, I've reached a relative comfort zone with whatever the money would be. It's not as
important as the things that are actually important. Yes. I agree. There's a certain level you have to
get to to be able to make that decision. But I think the decision would have been a lot easier
in the past to go, okay, you always take the money. By the way, I could hear younger people
saying like, oh, must be nice. And then older people saying like, yes, Michael and Ben are making
sense. Yeah, that's right. It is. It's completely different depending on your stage in life.
All right. You know what Ben, you're right. Let's get rid of the supply chain. It's over.
I can't believe we're still there. Take it out. All right. So Jason Gay had this really good piece
of the Wall Street Journal about participation trophies and youth sports crisis. And
you've seen the blog post from people that say like, these are the 10 books that changed my life
or people will have a story about this professor in high school or college or teacher totally
changed my life. I don't have any of those stories. I've never really read a book that
totally changed my life. Maybe I wish I had. You know, I'm so glad you mentioned that every
time I see those tweets, I'm like, oh, I don't, but I never know. I feel better. Yeah. If it happened
to you, great. I've never had it. I had pretty mediocre teachers my whole life. I never had a
teacher I look back on and I go that teacher changed my life. And I'm happy for people who had it.
But I can look back and say that like I have many coaches in sports that changed my life. And I
probably learned more playing sports than I ever did in the classroom. Like time management and
performing under pressure and things like discipline and all this. Right. I learned more. It sounds
like cliche, but it's true. So Jason Gay at the Wall Street Journal said that like the new move
to more travel sports and stuff for kids is causing fewer kids to play sports. So it says
the percentage of children six to 12 who regularly played a team sport dropped from 45%
in 2008 to 37% in 2021. And that droplets well underway before COVID. Participation fell to 38%
in 2019. And he's saying, listen, there are a lot of good things. So my wife and I really want
our kids to play sports. We got them in doing a bunch of stuff. And it's not because we want to
like live vicariously through them. I already had my moment, whatever. I'm fine. Not to brag.
And not to brag. But it's the stuff that you get from it. It's not like we're trying to have them
like play professionally and play in college someday. It's just that like all the good things
you get from teamwork and practice and like, I think it helps you stay out of trouble a lot too
because you're so busy with it. But I think so the point of his article was this move to travel
sports, which I have seen firsthand. My daughter's already in some travel soccer league at age nine.
And it's not cheap. Right before it's not like a rec a Y rec league. Like you have to pay money,
you have to buy uniforms, you have to travel. It's and I think his point was that it's boxing
people out from and it's turning into like sports or turning into like a haves versus have not
something. And I'm not a huge fan of that. The fact that we're making we're making it harder for
kids to play sports. Yeah. Yeah. How much is it? Are we talking like a thousand dollars for
a team? Probably something like that for a season. Yeah. I was I went to Kobe's parent teacher
conferences last week. And he he does speech because he like can't really say his R's or L's that great.
So I'm sitting in the and this is the this is the elementary school that I grew up going to.
And Kobe's got a little bit of spelcus, which is like ants in his pants,
which I suffer from suffered and continue to and we're sitting you were in trouble all eighth grade.
Like you said last week, we're sitting in punch the entire the entire the entire year.
We're sitting in the little classroom in the little debt in the little chairs.
And like I just felt such a flashback to like, oh my god, I don't know what I got like anxiety
being in a classroom setting. I just get like deeply uncomfortable and like the the his like
speech it said like Apple doesn't fall far from the tree.
She was like, I can't keep Kobe in his chair. He's always like, you know, running around the
you know, the table. Yeah. And back to my sports thing real quick. I don't I don't say like,
we're having so much fun with my daughter doing this her soccer league. I just wish more kids had
the opportunity. Like I wish that it was more inclusive. It wasn't so hard for people.
It's a big time thing and it's a big cost for a lot of people and but it is it's so much fun.
Like we had a tournament all weekend and Josh travels Josh takes Justin all over
Long Island for basketball. Why does it why why do they need to go so far?
This is a question that I had. Yeah. This is a question I have. There's so many kids in a city
why can't I just play each other and I haven't got a good answer. Most of our our games are
in Grand Rapids, but we'll have some games like 45 and hour 45 minutes an hour away. So it's not
terrible. But I agree that they that's how it used to be. You would play in a rec league and all
the kids in one city would play each other and it just it whatever for whatever reason that
that hasn't kept up that we got we got Chinese food on last week when you were in the city
and I'm I'm already taking the L here. I'm already taking the L so relax. But they're the the general
TSO is a TSO S. I think it's just TSO TSO. So how do you how do you pronounce that?
It's TSO Pass-free S general S. I was chicken. General some people call it general so's
what do I I say general chow? Yeah, you said I think some people in in the east coast call it
general chows and everyone in the office goes what no no one says that you like no come on in
New York at people call it general chows and everyone shot you down immediately and said no.
I think you've just been saying that wrong your whole life in Roosevelt field there used to be
a Chinese restaurant at the food court. I think it was called Manchu wak. I'm not
thinking of a different Chinese restaurant and I would always order the general chow chicken
and apparently I've been saying around my whole life but I do feel like I can't put the only one.
I had to have heard that from somewhere. Yeah, speaking of getting speak of getting roasted for
food somebody emailed me and listen I'll I'll issue a correction here somebody issued email
that was brisket has got to be done in a crock pot which I guess is what I said last week
something only a Yankee would say when he says Yankee I hear something else but okay I'll let it go
thanks for correcting him Ben listen my bad you're right obviously brisket is uh I mean that's like
a staple of the barbecue world I'm guessing he's from the south I feel like people in the south
take their brisket very seriously well yeah um so apologies hand up however when I cook a brisket
I don't have a smoker okay so for me it goes in the crock pot but but point taken there are many
ways to skin a brisket you're almost there for midlife crisis then you can buy a smoker for your
front lawn that's a millennial that's a millennial midlife crisis thing yes yes but I'm never smoking
that's not that's not happening all right just one more on stub hub I'm sorry I just can't let it go
so there were tickets that were 3 45 to get into the next game uh on Friday night and on stub hub
that goes from 3 45 to 4 46 it's so bad those seats are awful but again the they take the entire
bid-ass spread and it's so wide because if it's 3 45 again the buyer piece 4 46 so you this ticket
price 3 45 oh no actually you pay 4 46 the seller's not getting 3 45 they're getting what 280 or whatever
it is it's insane why can't the sports leagues themselves just cut out the middleman and sell
directly why doesn't the NBA do this and maybe it's too much of a pain in the butt of the NFL why
don't they have their own ticket system that they do obviously it's too much of a pain you're
preaching to the choir I don't get it we also got we also got clarity on a button up versus a button
down and now I know so thank you to the multiple people that sent this test here's the deal a button
down shirt is a shirt that buttons at the front and has a button down collar where you've got like
the collar buttons a dress shirt with buttons on the front and no buttons on the collar can be
called a button front or button up shirt but shouldn't be called a button down and now I was
thinking about this I feel like we got 10 different answers on this one just so you know no no no
this is consistent okay this is consistent all right uh recommendations what he got all right uh
remit seity from i will teach you be rich fame uh has a new show on netflix called how to be rich
it reminded me i watched the first two episodes or so it's it's kind of like his podcast but just
better produced and it reminds me of it's and it's i think it's cool that netflix is doing a show
like this about personal finance it's him helping people get their finances in order it reminds me of
what's the hg tv show barrows here house hunters house hunters how to remind you house it's like
that that's the kind of like way the show is set up it reminds you of like a house hunters episode
uh but in a good way which means you can kind of put it on the background it i i really like it
they had alien on the rewatchables last week so i went down an alien rabbit hole they have them all
in stars or hulu one of those i watched the first alien in the second one and then i put on prometheus
which i forgot was kind of the prequel prometheus is such a good movie i feel kind of underrated in
this last decade or so that's a great sci-fi flick love prometheus aliens my favorite
franchise of all time the scene where the robot is like stapling her shut robin's like you've seen
this a hundred times it's pretty gross i i was never a huge alien guide but i i like i like those
movies but i was never my thing but i i really like them i think my dad showed me aliens when i was
seven years old like i definitely grew up yeah so that's how you got hooked on horror and i saw
the fincher one i saw that in theaters i don't know what year that was 94. David fincher made an aliens
movie was that aliens three aliens three okay uh and it was it was a it was a debacle but i every
aliens movie since alien three i've seen in the theater we'll never miss keep him coming
love what he got uh i was watching beef on saturday night when robin and i were going to the train
where we're going to the city on the train i was watching beef and i don't know how this happened
but i said to robin like you're nitty for not watching this i told you to watch with me you're
gonna like it i get mad at her for not watching stuff for me that i know she's gonna like and she
will never watch something that i recommend unless she hears like two of her friends recommend it
and then i'm like i i'm but i'm six episodes in anyway i'm trying to convince her i'm like this
is like really hb equality and i was probably like the third episode or fourth episode and i don't
know how i didn't realize it until i said that it's you know why it feels like hb equality and not
nefflix even you know uh is because uh it was produced by a 24. uh interesting okay i've heard
good things i still haven't got into it i haven't watched much tv lately okay i kind of i don't know
i thought i thought you watch it i really really enjoyed it uh borderline pounding the table on it
i i thought it was i thought it was excellent definitely not what i thought it was very bullish
on beef super bullish um all right thank you for listening again thank you to matthew for
taking us on this journey uh animal spirits pod at gmail.com we will see you next time
bye!
Bye.