90 Degrees | Ep #41 NFL Originator REVEALS his Power Ratings Powered by Pinnacle

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Ich denke, ihr habt einen wirklichen Joy. Was er hat, dass ich sagen kann. Ich habe einen Sharp Clark und einen Fälle-Arogenator. Sie hat einen Fälle für 4 und 4 Betts. Clark, danke für die Leute. Ja, ich bin gesagt, das ist ein Highlight in meinem Week. Ich bin immer leid, ich bin immer leid, ich bin immer leid. Ich möchte die Leute, die wissen nicht, wie es dein Sportbeding-Journey startt. Wie geht es dir? Und wie hat es dir über die Jahre gewollt? Ja, ich bin ein Casual-NFL-Fan oder Casual. Ich habe eine Gene, die ich ein paar Leute haben, die sich ein Ultra-Kompetitive machen. Und alles, was sie tun. Ich bin ein NFL-Fan. Und natürlich, das ledde mich um die Fancy-Football-Kompetitive-Alts-Kasual-Betting. Und dann war es 2019, die ich in den nächsten Level-Upt-Level decided und sich in den nächsten Level-Upt-Level wirklich versuchen, wie ein reales Betteng-System. Und in der Offices und in der Offices in 2019 und 2020, Covid-Hit, ich war in meinem Ruhm, mein Haus für ein paar Wochen mit meinem Computer. Und ich war einfach, okay, ich werde das in der Robust-Model-Kart und Prozess. Und das war das, wenn ich damals dann sehr seriiously bin, in der 2020-Saison. Und für die, die nicht wissen, du bist eine ganz andere Prozess, dann die meisten von uns, was ist dein Prozess, wenn es um die Sportbeding kommt? Ich bin immer in der ganzen Knie, ich probiere sich das. Und von der Kontrolle und der Zusch Soul die Play-by-play-Data und Summary Statistics und APA-Planel, all that kind of stuff, that contains a bias towards outcomes over probabilities, which most people don't think of as a bias. They think that's just like how things are measured, but like every event is a probabilistic event. And I think we intuitively understand that in terms of results, like we looked back at last year and say, hey, the Vikings, they outperformed. They weren't really the quality of a 13-win team because a lot of those outcomes were not highly likely outcomes. But we don't often take that to the play-by-play level, where every play has a range of outcomes and a percentage associated with it. We only seem to take the results. Sorry, so my goal is to try to capture that metrically and then use those metrics to create numbers and make bets. Okay, so I love that because you're right about we understand the concept of variance and how it's used results. And yet we take a play-by-play basis in the data as being facts and not understanding the probabilities and the variance that goes within every play. How do you look in for when you say how successful was a player? How successful was an offensive drive? I don't want to get too specific, but let's use an example, right? So in last year's playoffs and the entire playoffs, the 13th highest EPA on any play of the entire playoffs was on that 4th and 8, where Jaylen Hertz completed the ball, completed the ball to Devanta Smith down the sideline and Shanahan inexplicably did not challenge it absurd, right? All he has to do is throw the flag and that's a fourth down failure. It's a turnover, not even like a punt. It's an actual turnover to San Francisco. Instead they get first and go on like the five and they score a touchdown, right? So like that play was a great play by Devanta Smith, great play by Jaylen Hertz, but probabilistically more often than not, that's incomplete, right? There's so many scenarios where the other coach throws the flag, there's so many scenarios where the ref sees the ball hit the ground as he's trying to secure it. And so that's kind of an example of what I'm trying to capture. It's like I don't treat that play as a full four EPA per play. Or EPA, I'm treating it as a probabilistic event that in most cases is actually going to be incomplete. So I also watch film, but I don't create like a rating system like you do, but I look for the stuff that the numbers don't capture. Don't capture and that's one of them or like missed penalties and stuff that will skew the result and I don't believe the true outcome of the game is reflected in the stats. So that's one thing we've bonded over having a process of watching film and not enough people do it. What I know what my work week looks like, Monday is my film watching day and I'm exhausted by the end of it. What is your what is your week look like from let's say Monday morning to Sunday night? On so Sunday is actually my biggest work day because I'm watching, you know, I watch a morning game. I actually love when there's a London game because that like extends my work day earlier, but or European game. So I'm watching film on Sunday and then I take a break after the morning games and then usually 45 minutes to an hour after the morning games and they start uploading the replays on NFL.com and that's when I start watching film. So I'm actually not watching the afternoon games. Typically I'm actually reviewing film from the morning games all the way through Sunday night usually. So I try to get as many games as I can. You know, I think a lot of people watch every game but like multiple TVs at the same time. So not really studying every game individually. I'm focused on one game at a time and I actually grade every play individually. So it takes me a little bit longer to get through the games. And then one day I try to watch another four or five games. Tuesday, usually like three or four, try to wrap up on Wednesday. Depending on what else I got going on sometimes takes me into Thursday. I try to prioritize games that feature teams that I anticipate making a bet on the following week based on what the line is and what my numbers say at the time. But I typically try to wait unless I really have a strong feeling on the line. I typically try to wait until I've watched both teams play if applicable before making that bet. Okay, I've got it. So by Wednesday you're done your work. You've got your updated ratings. When you're looking to make bets on Thursday and Friday does it bother you if the market has moved already and you didn't get a line that perhaps you could have got if you watched the game a day or two earlier? I'm usually not betting on Thursday and Friday because if it's a game that I like I probably prioritize watching those teams earlier in the week. So I'm usually rolling my bets day by day depending on what the limits are. Usually by Tuesday limits a high enough for anything that I want to do at this point in my betting journey. But I understand that as my goals go up and the betting limits go up, I have to bet later in the week. So that's actually something that I'm going to be working on this year is tracking the bets that I would make each day theoretically. Like if I had to wait until that day to make that bet, like what games would I still be playing and I'm going to be tracking my performance on each day to kind of see how I do against various limits? Okay, so I love that. I do a multi-TV, but so we have six TVs going, but the truth is you only really can watch two games properly. And as long as they're not coordinated, we're the same, the snaps going off at the same time and we have the side TVs and we keep a half an eye on it, but I often have to re-watch those games. So like you, I love bi-weeks. I love the London game because when I can watch prime time in isolation, I know I've got full focus on it. Now I'm not charting data and notes, so it's not the same effect that you do or you have to watch each game fully focused. So I can relate to that. What I love about you on Twitter is you're not afraid to like mix it up, go off script, go against the grain. Why do you think people are generally scared to do? So like I remember when I was a guest on 90 degrees and Kevin Davis was asking me, when you make your power ratings, do you then like normalize to like key numbers? And I'm like, no, I want my number to be its truest form. And then I can decide from there which side of it I want and which way I want it to move, but I want to keep some of the data pure. Why are you so willing to go off market and you think people are scared to do so? As a great question, and we can probably talk about it for a while, but I don't regress my numbers to market. Now, I understand that a lot of people do. And I think if you're betting sizing requires you to quantify with specificity the size of your edge in order to determine how much of your bank where we should be betting on that play, like a half-calier or fractional Kelly system, then you kind of have to maybe, you know, regress to the market to kind of like right size the size of your edges. And that doesn't really make any sense to me because if my model is wrong, I want to understand why it's wrong. I want to, you know, purely follow what my model says and evaluate its performance against the market. And if it's failing or if it's off in some systematic way, I need to be able to identify that to fix it, right? And if I'm just regressing to the market, then I might be covering up, you know, some flaws in my model basically. I also might be covering up some strengths in my model. But ultimately because my bet sizing is more standardized, like I bet two or three units on every NFL side that I bet. It's really just a matter of like what my model says, and then I have like an extra layer of analysis that's database that kind of goes on top of that. And also when there's a line, I go to three units, otherwise it's just two units. So for me, it doesn't matter how far off market my number is, as long as I see an edge, I'm gonna bet it. And so like I haven't seen any increase or decrease in performance when my numbers are drastically off market versus just enough off market to create an edge. It's pretty much the same ratio of wins so far in my bet and career. So to me, that just indicates that like what's most important is try to identify the spots where I have differentiation from market regardless of how big it is. And then every year I try to evaluate like, where was I most wrong? Why is there something that I'm missing? And I think you can bet a self scout if you're actually sticking to your numbers rather than regressing them to the market. Okay, so you said the keyword there, self scout. And I know we both do all top season off season. How often are you doing it within the season? Like is it every week, are you self scouting? Like not just the bets you made, the stuff that your model showed you versus what actually happened. So the bets you didn't make as well, are you evaluating that or is it too much to do on a weekly basis? I'm evaluating it in terms of what I understand the teams to be. I'm not evaluating my process during the season. During the off season I really take a deep dive into like more macro concepts and things about my process and betting system that I want to improve. But during the season it's, you know, I go into this game like, okay, I think based on understanding of how this team performs when they have the offensive line advantage, I project them to have the offensive line advantage here, you know, against this scheme that this defense typically runs, like I expect this level of performance and then that doesn't happen. And now I want to understand why, right? Where the injuries that I didn't account for was I just wrong. Is there just less predictability in this team's offensive line or the scheme that the defense was running? Like there's so many questions I run through. And when a game ends up using my metrics to be exactly kind of how I predicted, I'm not going to analyze that too much. I'm going to say, okay, good. I'm like on the right track with those teams. But when things are really off, I have to try to analyze why. In some cases it's just, you know, players have bad days, right? Teams have bad days. And when there's one outliers, not as convincing, but it's just a constant process of evaluating where I might be wrong, right? Because we're always wrong. Yeah. So you have a rating for every team every week. Are there times where you know with more certainty that you're on the right track with a team and other times where you're like, I know what my number's saying, but I don't know how much I believe in what I'm doing and maybe are a little bit like, let me see a couple of weeks run and see how close I am with this team. Yeah, definitely. And a lot of times it has to do with how they got there, right? So like, you know, last year that the Panthers were a really tricky team, right? Because and the Steelers were kind of like this too. And in the sense that they could really, once they established the ground game and like could consistently get those rushing gains, it was like they were a completely different team. But as soon as those runs were stopped on first and second down, they were just terrible. So you had this massive split based on how well they established the ground game, which is kind of a unique team profile. And so there were games where they did really well and really poorly based on that. And I had to kind of be like, well, you know, that doesn't mean that they're going to continue, especially if they face a better run defense. So I think not putting too much stock in an outlier performances that are specific to a certain context or certain game flow or certain type of attack. Like I think those are the times where I'm a little more skeptical. Well, you said the Panthers in, if you look at the game against San Francisco, you go, oh, this team is terrible because they could not run the ball. And then you look at their game against Detroit and you're like, this is a playoff caliber team. And like the two skews right there and wide range of outcomes like present themselves when you look at two different games like that. Yeah, that was a wild game with Detroit. When you build your ratings going into a season, how much of it is just importing everything from last year versus, okay, there's adjustments in the roster and I've got to make tweaks to my numbers. I'm definitely heavily favoring what I saw last year because I really do trust my numbers, especially when I have a large sample size like a whole season and contextualize for injuries and things like that. So I really do stick closely there and then I adjust based on what I've seen in the offseason. But my adjustments are very, they're not very robust or like tightly determined, they're much more based on feel. I tend to think that, you know, individual player level evaluations whether it's PFF grades or wins above replacement or even like positionally weighted value, you know, even things like pass rush win rate and pass block win rate. Those types of numbers I think are so heavily dependent on circumstances like the scheme plays into that. You know, like if you're a defensive end lining up on the same side as Aaron Donald, like you're probably gonna have a higher pass rush win rate because Aaron Donald might be grabbing the attention of the guy that's supposed to be blocking you or if you're a left tackle on a play where Justin Fields is rolling out to his right. Like all you really need to do is just kind of shove the defensive end to the left like just keep pushing him out further and further and that's really easy to do because you know that if you push him left enough, he's no way he's gonna catch up to Justin Fields by the time he's done whatever he's gonna do in that play. Whereas if you have to block for Tom Brady, you've got to cover, you know, for potentially, well, maybe not Tom Brady, someone holds the ball longer. You gotta cover potentially longer. There's more options for what the defensive end can do to get by you. So anyway, my point is so many of these player level evaluations are so context specific that I tend to look at teams as systems and so yes, like, you know, the Bears added a bunch of players and so, you know, I upgraded their numbers and what they were last year, but I'm not doing it drastically because it's still kind of the same fundamental core and I need to see evidence that these players are gonna make a difference before I, you know, go too far in terms of adjusting. But that said, because it's more of like a fuels process, like I adjust very quickly early in the season based on what I see. So it's really important to be fluid and not too rigid with your off-season projections. Hey, I wanna tell you about Pinnacle. Pinnacle is the world's sharpest sportsbook and available to betters and Ontario. Find out what professional betters have known for decades. Pinnacle is where the best betters play. Every day competitive odds, bet smart, bet pinnacle, must be 19 plus an Ontario. Please play responsibly, not available in the U.S. Now back to the show. You know, you mentioned how you play oftentimes is a result of your circumstance. And like, especially I find defensively, if you're on a very good defense where you know your role is hyperspecific and you don't have to think of multiple things, like look at Patrick Queen. He looks lost out there for the first two and a half years of his career. And then Rokwan Smith gets traded to the Ravens and he elevates Patrick Queen because now Patrick Queen isn't the guy. He's a number two fiddle and Rokwan does a lot of good things. So his job, you know, his job specifics were much more narrow and he could just use his pure athleticism to actually be successful. So I see it from that perspective. But you said, you know, largely core is unchanged so you don't want to tweak. What do you do when it's like completely new coach, new quarterback, new like Carolina? Frank Reich is new and they're running back Miles Sanders and his new and Adam Thielin and Chark and Hayden Hurst and Bryce Young, like everybody's new, how do you evaluate a team that's a jumbled mess? That basically doesn't resemble what it did last year. I don't typically bet on or against them in week one. Like I'm guessing, like we're all guessing. So I think understanding the teams that I have very little confidence in versus the ones that have more confidence in is important. But ultimately, yeah, I'm guessing. But based on what I've seen, right, we have evidence. We have evidence of these players and coaches in different circumstances. You know, there's a little bit of college film on Bryce Young, although, you know, college film is pretty weak in terms of predictive ability. But what we do know is that rookies don't always, you know, hit their peak right away. So yeah, also you talked about like we're guessing and there's teams we all know that the range of outcomes, like, you know, the Atlantis and Green Bayes and Washington's and oftentimes how strong you feel about them is just you picking the spot on the spectrum of your belief in them, right? And saying, you know what, no, I'm more bullish on them and I'm willing to wait it more on the right tail outcome versus I'm more negative on them and I'll be on the left tail outcome. But like you said, until you get more evidence because you said you're gonna learn a lot from the Carolina Atlantic game week one. And like for me, that game is Green Bay in Chicago. I'm gonna learn, like if Jordan Love can't be this Chicago Bears defense, then my bullish thoughts on Green Bay might have to adjust very fast. Yeah, I mean, the Falcons are a great example of this. Like I've been pegged as the bullish Falcons guy who loves Desmond Ritter, you know, because some of my posts on Twitter, but guess what, I bet the over when it was seven and a half wins plus 100, right? So like, yeah, of course I was bullish on Atlanta at those prices, but like at the current prices eight and a half, you know, juiced to the over, like I actually, you know, hedged some back on the under like trying to play a middle because it's not like I'm, you know, unbridled bullishness on the Falcons. It's that I think that there's a path for them. Like there's a big unknown at quarterback, but the situation is really good for a player like Ritter to succeed. But like banking on Ritter to win nine games as some kind of like, you know, juiced bet is yeah. Like I'm not there. No. And I'm not betting on them week one, right? Like I'm watching Atlanta, Carolina with no bets because there is too much unknown on both sides and I'm really excited to learn what I learned from that game. It reminds me of Eric last year, Eric Eger, who I believe was on the forefront of the restore, the roar movement with the Detroit Lions. And I had him on my podcast and I'm like, you know, when you mentioned the Lions, they were priced well and now there's been this bull like everybody's coming aboard, but the numbers are off now. You got him a whole game better than they are available right now. So he's like, yeah, no, it's true. I don't, I don't feel as strongly at this number as I did at the original number, but I guess that's what happens when the market starts piling over, right? Yeah, yeah, if I had to price the Falcons, I would say eight and a half should be minus one, ten both sides. That's my, that's my fair. They are perfectly, you know, average team. Well, they're below average team against a really easy schedule, which is, yeah, well, let's go through the tiers and I, you know what I love is looking at some of our similarities and some of our differences. And I want to unveil tier one. Now, I've labeled my tiers, but I'm not going to put that label on yours, but I will reveal what you have in a tier one. I don't normally do tiers, but in order to be uniform with you, I said, let me do it for the sake of this exercise. And in tier one, you've got just two teams. You have Buffalo first and Kansas City second. I have, and I deemed this tier the Super Bowl favorites. Kansas City won Cincinnati two Philadelphia three Buffalo four. There is a bit of a gap for us on how we see Cincinnati and Buffalo. Before we get into that, I want to ask you, what does tier one mean to you? So I think back up one step and just to clarify, like, these are what my numbers say. Like, I, you know, I based on last year's numbers, I made adjustments for off seasons and projections. But these are, this is only one step of my handicapping process. Like, the numbers are the foundation and then there's like other levels to what I do based on specific things that can't really get into. So, so like, for example, you know, Buffalo against Kansas City on a neutral field, if it was a pick them, I, like, I was forced to bet it, I would bet Kansas City. So it, which sounds weird because Buffalo is a head of Kansas City on my numbers. It's, it's a whole complicated thing. But like, that, that's a caveat here, right? Second thing is tiers are just where I see big gaps in those numbers. So like, there, there was a noticeable gap between the second team and the third team and then there's other places where there's kind of clustered, closer together within those tiers, which I think is helpful, more helpful than just having a, you know, a number. Sure. All right. Since Nadie Buffalo, I still see Buffalo as the fourth best team and like, honestly, if anybody wants to put them above failure, since he, I'm not fighting them, I think it's that close. You have Buffalo as the best team in football. Why do you think people in the market in general are down on Buffalo? What, because last year they were the Super Bowl favorite. Josh Allen was the MVP favorite. Everybody and their mother wanted to bet Buffalo. And then something happened and the, the markets and the public don't love Buffalo this year. I think three things happened mainly. The first is their secondary was banged up big time throughout the year. They were missing guys, multiple guys in most games in out of lineups, never really had consistency. So that was a big problem is right. Their defense is predicated on good secondary play the way that they play. So that was one, two was Josh Allen made some really high leverage bad plays in big spots. You know, I'm not one to be like, well, it was because he injured his elbow and was never the same. It's possible, like, I don't know maybe, but I've seen enough out of Josh Allen to believe that those plays with the aberration and not the norm. I don't tend to think that players who have proven themselves time and again, that make big mistakes. I don't think that it's like, oh, that's just who Josh Allen is. Like I think, you know, every, every good player is capable of bad plays. Patrick Mahomes makes bad plays, right? And then the third thing that happened was just the recency bias of them absolutely shitting the bed and the playoffs against Cincinnati at, you know, at home, losing by, I don't know, 14 or 17 points in a game. They were favored by five and a half points in. Yeah, and the market seemed them that way, right? It opened three, three and a half and the market took them all the way up to six. So like, once upon a time, the market loved Buffalo. Yeah. And like, honestly, it was a really crappy game plan by the bills, especially on defense and, and like, you know, Leslie Frazier's gone. So like, if one of the big problems was the inability to scheme on defense, like, I'm not so sure that that's necessarily a downgrade. Like, I know that Leslie Frazier is really what respected and I think that he's done a good job. So it could be a downgrade. But I just, I, I look back at a game and be like, you know, they couldn't touch burrow. They couldn't get that, like burrow just was dicing them from the pocket and the cornerbacks were playing back on the receivers and letting them get seven, eight yards in every play in the snow. It's like, you just can't play that way. So yeah, I think, you know, I'm not going to put too much stock in one weather game. Even though it was really bad, I, you know, I, I wait games based on recency, but, you know, it's still only one data point in terms of the history of the bills. And I, I think that they're more likely to bounce back and be the, you know, one of the top two teams that we've seen them be the last three years than they are to fall below the, you know, Kansas City tier for both teams. You know, you know, my position on Sincene, I had this conversation with you about there was a fundamental change on how they ran their offense. And it was week six. It was the newer Leans game. You can trace back the articles where they said, Shotgun Formation and let Joe Burrow have more control at the Linus Krimmage. And I gave this out on a episode of Forward Progress. And I said, here's the, the raw data. And remember, I told you you have to trash bin the first five weeks of Sincene season because they were a noticeably different team, the rest of the way. And this is where watching film can get married in stats. And you can have a higher evaluation of a team than market. I explained that through the first five weeks since Cincinnati was two and three and they were 20th in EPA per play and like 19th in success rate. And then from week six on, when they made the adjustment, they went 10 and one, they were number two in EPA per play, they were number two in success rate. So like they became everything that I thought they could be later in the season. This is why I still remain high on Cincinnati. And I still am higher than market. Listen, we're three spots apart, but we both obviously are very high on Cincinnati and Buffalo. So that was my perspective of sometimes you got a trash bin portion of the season and believe what this new version of a team you're seeing is the team. Otherwise, it'll weigh it down for too long. Yeah, by my metrics, they also weren't that necessarily good towards the end of the year. I had them very poorly on offense against Tampa Bay. You remember that game, like the other reason they had one in the first half and then whatever they were on, they gave it to Tampa in the second half and Tampa had nothing going in the second half. It was not just nothing. I think Tampa Bay turned the ball over five times within their own 30. It was the wildest game of the year. I remember because I'm like, I'm so wrong on a bet and it ended up winning and I'm like, I don't know how this, this actually broke right for me. Yeah, I 100% remember that game. And then the offense wasn't good against Baltimore in the playoffs. The offense really wasn't good against Kansas City in the playoffs. So if the narrative is that, you know, they fix the offense, like I didn't see the evidence of that down the stretch. So I'm not, I'm not boosting them up for next year based on that. All right, tier two. I have this tier and I've labeled it Super Bowl contenders. So this, these are teams that maybe they're not as good as the teams in tier one, but they're more than capable of winning a Super Bowl. I, you have Philadelphia as your third team. I also had them as my third team. You have San Fran as your fourth team. I have them as my fifth team. You have Cincinnati as your fifth team. I have Miami as my sixth. You have them as your seventh, the Jets as your sixth. I have Cleveland as my seventh. We both have Dallas as our eight. I have the Jets nine. You have the Jets six and you have the chargers nine. I have them 10. So that's our tier two. The, the one that sticks out to me is Cleveland. So let's have at it because I believe there are top 17 and you think they're tier three and based on what, George, based on what? So when I start to think of like what are teams weak at, I, I find it hard to find true weakness on Cleveland. I like their online. I think Nick Chubb is the best running back in football. I am willing to give Dishon Watson the benefit of the doubt. Like I mean, if he plays as bad as he did last year in, in first two weeks, yeah, I'm going to adjust. I have no choice, but I'm willing to believe, like you said, if a guy has shown me, he's pretty good over the course of his career. And we can argue about how good he was in the course of his career. It's hard for me to throw that away for a six game sample size. I love their defensive, defensive improvements. You know, you talk about looking at a defense holistically, while the whole D line changed minus Miles Garrett. They brought into edge rushers. They brought into new defensive tackles. Last year, they had a cluster of injuries at linebacker. They lost like their first five linebackers. Let's presume that they'll be somewhat healthy. I still like their secondary. I believe they're three corners deep. So when I look at, do they have many weaknesses? I say, no, do I, like they have one dominant strength? I believe it's the trenches. And if Dishon Watson is right and part of this is projecting, like I see a fully a full team. I don't see a team with many weaknesses. And I see, and I see a team with elite aspects to it. What are you not seeing about Cleveland? I think I would feel differently about Dishon Watson. If, if not for several different factors that went into this one, is I, I was low on Dishon Watson in the first place. Like I, I thought he was overrated to begin with. He relied on a bunch of out of structure deep shots that weren't really like sustainable. You know, we've talked about my system, right? So that was one thing. So, so when he underperformed specifically, like his style of play, you know, relying on those deep shots and not being comfortable and confident over the middle, and timing routes and rhythm and like all the things that like someone like my homestas really well at Rodgers, when he was MVP, like those things don't work against today's NFL defenses, right? So we, we had this gap in Watson's career that coincided with a massive defensive shift towards two high shells and focusing on taking away those deep shots. So Dishon Watson came into the NFL facing different kinds of defenses than what he had before, and based on what he did well and poorly before, like I expected some regression. So there's that. And then the other thing is like, yes, it was only a six game sample size, but never in those six games did he even look like a competent quarterback. Like it wasn't like, oh, what was kind of up and down, like you kind of expect, like he showed nothing. And so that, that's really concerning to me is like I want to see like an upswing towards the end of the year that I just didn't see. I, I graded the Browns offense as noticeably better with percent than it was with Watson last year. So, so Watson's going to have to be a whole lot better to be the kind of quarterback that takes, you know, a team deep in the AFC or competes in the AFC. I do think the defense is really good. I'm skeptical of their coaching. I think every year people get so excited about his defense game. I'm like every year he's disappointing and like dysfunction on his team. And like I just don't, like based on my, you know, studying of the team, like I'm just not that excited about the, you know, like them being able to compete with the best teams in the AFC. So they could, they have talent and Watson, you know, can, can definitely be better. It's one of those teams that I'm kind of like the opposite of what you just said. Watson comes out blazing in week one and we're both ready to adjust to like, yeah, and we probably should be somewhere more in the middle. But I'm taking the spectrum of the full bowl and you're taking the bear and like, I, we might end up somewhere in the middle there. Yeah, and, and I think it's important. So like when I'm doing my offseason numbers, like I have, I have what I currently expect. Like I have to make week one numbers. It's just, you know, like obviously I have to, but what's more important when you're doing these offseason evaluations and projections is understanding the range of outcomes for each team and not in terms of how many wins they might get. But the range of outcomes for who they are as a team, right? And on offense and defense and specialty and just if you do that kind of stuff. And so for me, like, I have the Browns as like a slightly above average offense. But, but their range of outcomes include some much higher numbers, whereas a team like the Steelers are ranked pretty similar to me on offense. But I don't really see the, the high upside that, that I see with the Browns offense in the same way. So it's important to under and then, and then the second part of that is, you've got to anticipate what do I need to see exactly in those first few weeks in order to move them to a different point in that range of outcomes. And so with the Browns specifically, like I need to see what's and dialed in and able to make those consistent timing throws. He's got a lot of good receivers to work with this year. Like it can happen, but I need to see it. And if I see it, then they're going to be one of the teams I rapidly adjust for. Hey, the easiest way to improve as a sports better is use multiple sports books and always get the best odds. We recommend using an odds comparison tool like Betstem. Betstem compares odds across every sports book for games, futures and player props. Save time and money by checking Betstem before you bet. Download the app today. If you're looking to sign up for a new sports book account, please check out the offers available at betstem.app forward slash circles off or hit the link in the description. If you sign up through this page, it helps support the show. Now back to the rest of the episode. Yeah, I love that. And also, you know how we talk about, you know, what you see in week one, sometimes if you have a wide range of outcomes, you have to trust that maybe what you're seeing is the reality. And sometimes if a team's more rigid and it's an outlier example, it could just be like, you know what, like when Joe Burrow throws five interceptions against ball Pittsburgh week one, that's not Joe Burrow. Whereas if Jordan Love comes on, throws five interception against the Bears, we might just say, oh, oh, like maybe he's not that good. And you have to adjust a little bit faster. Let's look at tier three. And I'm happy that both of us have this one team. Because I believe a lot of people have them in tier two. Now we do have them at the top of tier three. And that usually means that there's room to get into tier two. But you have Baltimore 10. I have Baltimore 11, you have no Orleans 11. And that's another one we're going to have a topic a discussion about because I have them 17. Pittsburgh, I have 12. You have them 13th Cleveland. And as we already mentioned, you had them 12. Detroit, I have them 14th, you have them 17. Jacksonville, you have them 14th, I have them 16th. New England, I have them 15th and you have them 18th. Seattle, you have 15th. I already mentioned I had them at 13th. Minnesota, I have them at 18th. You have Minnesota at 20th. I have Green Bay at 19 and so do you. I have Denver at 20, you have them at 22. And then we'll save this last one because there's a discrepancy there. I have Tennessee 21st and you have them 16th. Let's start off with New Orleans. You are higher on New Orleans and Tennessee than I am. Let's start what's the positive outlook on New Orleans. This isn't schedule dependent, right? This is just an evaluation of who New Orleans is as a roster, right? Right, yeah. Obviously they have an easy schedule, but that doesn't impact my team rating. I thought the Saints were much, much better last year than the market and it was frustrating because I think if you look at results, like it was often wrong, I think I lost a lot of money on the Saints last year. But just by the way that I understand the game and the way that I grade the game, they just kept performing at a high level. And it was Andy Dalton, right? He's okay, he's got the circumstances, but I think what I love about the Saints' offense is their versatility and the way that they use role players. So take some hills, packages, make a meaningful impact on what that offense can do, especially in the red zone. When Alvin Comer is back, like he's a versatile running back, Rashid Shaheed is a burner that can really stretch the field. Alave is a legit number one wide receiver. I think he's going to show that this year. Even Michael Thomas should be healthy. Juan Johnson is a monster, especially in the red zone. He's like a really good, big, route runner with good hands. And you look at Derek Carr, and his career struggles have been in the red zone. Like he's great between the 20s, but in the red zone he's tightened up. And I think part of that is that lack of versatility that the Raiders offense has had all these years. It's been on him to get the ball in the end zone and Darren Waller, great over the field, big tight end that can stretch the field, but never has been a great red zone target. So I think that this combination of weapons that Carr is playing within New Orleans and that's things they can do in the red zone is going to up level his game. And I think that Derek Carr is a better quarterback than Andy Dalton. So I'm upgrading the offense slightly from where it was last year and I already had it pretty high last year. I do anticipate some defensive regression. So I have them kind of like, we'll see what the defense looks like. I thought they were pretty good last year, but they should be worse. So it might be, we'll see how much that impacts them. But I'm just put a lot of stock in how this offense is going to perform this year. I remember New Orleans was often, their underlying metrics were better than the results. And I remember a game where like, I got my teeth kicked and was against, I think it was Baltimore on the Monday night football game where like the line moved to New Orleans and I'm feeling pretty. I had teased through the seven and I'm like, I'm like laughing here and Baltimore just Molly walked them. Here's where I think the gap in our process is because I do put stock in like individual talent and what they have. So when I see New Orleans is, I see a lot of doubts. From my point of view, I see, I have doubts about the o-line, the strength of the o-line. And then I have doubts of if Alvin Camara still has the same burst that he had. He's also suspended, but again, that's not factoring that into my ratings. I have doubts that Michael Thomas will be healthy even though when he does play, he's really good. I have doubts of the interior d-line. I like the Brian Bressie first round pick. I just don't believe he should be your number one defensive tackle. And I have doubts if March on Lathamore is still a number one corner. So when I think of New Orleans, I'm also willing to adjust, but and I'm also doubtful. I have more doubts than certainties with this team. So that's part of the reason that I've reduced them. Tennessee's different story. Now I've moved them up post Deandre Hopkins, not just for what Deandre Hopkins brings to the table. It tells me a little bit more about intention. And this is a team that I shouldn't expect will have us to see the field. This is a team that wants to compete this year. Let's start with it because I've got them 21st and I readily admit they are a team that bothers me. Their underlying metrics don't jive with what I like. And we've had this conversation before about them. You have them more close to league average 16. What do you see in Tennessee that has you saying, you know what, this isn't a bad team at all. Let's start with the defense because I think their defense has legitimate number one defense overall potential this year. I thought their defense was really good last year. Like obviously had some issues in the secondary. A lot of that was injuries, right? I mean, they had guys missing time, especially light in the year at key positions in the secondary. Harold Landry missed the whole year on IR. They added Aziz Al-Sharir. They added Art and Key. They added Shomer Feebunden to the secondary. Mike Rabel can coach up a defense. Jeffrey Simmons, a monster in the middle. These guys are really, really good on defense. And then on offense, they've got a quarterback who can get the job done in Ryan Tannenau. Like a proven good quarterback. We'll see offensive Lyon as a massive question mark. We'll see how much juice Deandre Hopkins has left in the tank, but I think he's got some. Traylon Berks should be better in his second year. Carl Phillips should be better in his second year. The tight end, a concoo, I think his name is. Like, he's fine. He's a bit player, whatever. Derek Henry's still going. Like, I'm not the kind of person that says, all right, well, Derek Henry has this many carries and he's this old. So he's going to suck this year, or he's going to drop off this year. I'm someone that reacts to what I see on the field. So yes, my ears are tuned to it. But until I see that on the field, like I'm just not going to project it to happen in the very next game. Maybe it's something that happens halfway through the season and maybe it's heard again. Maybe Tannenau gets heard. Maybe they start rebuild mode, whatever. They signed Hopkins, to me, seems they're not in rebuild mode. But there's a lot of potential downside for this offense. But I'm basically just saying they are who they were last year. So what did my numbers say they were last year with a slight boost to the defense based on those guys coming back healthy and those additions? And that's where my numbers spitted them out. They're below average offense, but they're very above average defense. So I'm with you. I thought they had one of the best front sevens in football last year. They were very good at stopping the run. I think losing David Long and bringing in Aziz Al-Shayar is a little bit of a wash, where I do think they did improve is bringing in Sean Murphy-Bunting. Because I believe it beefs up the depth of their cornerback room, especially with all the guys who got hurt last year. Still believe they have two of the better safeties in football. I just maybe pinpointed where our biases create differences. So I played offensive line in school, and I love trenches. It's where I begin to formulate my thoughts when thinking of a game. So when I have Cleveland a little higher than you, I'm very bullish on an elite o-line. When I have newer leans and Tennessee below you, that's what is holding me back for Tennessee. I hate this o-line. I think it's maybe the worst o-line in football. And I believe when you have a truly terrible o-line, you have a ceiling for how successful you can be offensively. Unless you have a player like a borrower, a maholms, or a Herbert who can elevate past a weak o-line and make adjustments, I don't think that Tanya will can with a bad o-line. So I think that's where the disconnect is happening. Because besides that, I love their defense too. I think it's top 10 with a lot more higher potential. And offensively, I actually think Chigokonko is one of those hidden... Like I liked him in the combine last year. I'm a workout warrior, and I thought he blew it up. And I think Traylon Berks is sneakily going under the radar, and maybe he shows a little something. So to me, it's really the o-line that's dragging it down. Let's look at tier four, because we have some discrepancies there as well. You haven't landed 21st. I give you a stick about Atlanta, but I still have them 23rd. When you set eight and a half serrains, I'm like, yeah, that's the range I have them in that eight-win range. So it's not even... I just, you know what it is, I'm fighting back against. I've heard they can win the NFC, and I'm just like, no, I'm not buying the right, right, pale. And I don't think you've ever said it, but like Rob, his goal has come out and said it. No, no, I've said most regular season wins for Atlanta. It's 61. Yeah, so that's an inch. I think that's schedule dependent, because I told Rob to go, if New Orleans is marginally better than expected, and the rest of their schedule, which is like a bunch of high variance teams are worse, New Orleans might be a top two seed in the NFC just because of circumstance. And he's like, if I could find a bet that says New Orleans wins the division, but loses first round game at a right price, I'd be interested. And I think that's kind of the methodology behind it, like this division's so bad. If you're just pretty good, and the schedule's so soft, you might have a really good opportunity on the right tail. You have Denver 22nd, I have them 20th. So we're both a little bit down from market. I have the Giants 22nd, you have them 25th. I have Washington 24th, you have them 24th. Tampa Bay, you have 23rd, and I have 28th. So that's one discrepancy I want to get to, but we'll do that when we get to tier five discussion. I have Carolina 25th, you have them 28th. I think this is the biggest discrepancy. You have Chicago 27th. No, I have Chicago 27th, you have them 29th. But I have Houston 26th, you have them as the second worst team in football. And maybe I can start on why I'm bullish on Houston, and then you can counteract that again. And unfortunately, when I made these ratings, I haven't factored in Titus Howard. It's gonna miss six weeks, so that hurts. But again, when I like to look at how a team is built, I start thinking about the O-Line, and I like their book and tackles. I think Tonsul and Howard are good, and I like that they went and got Shaq Mason, and I think Ken Yon Green, I know he was very bad last year, but he was the first round pick, and I'm saying he could be better. I'm buying a little bit of their rookie center and some of that outcome. So when I start thinking I go, this isn't a bad O-Line. So what about the collection of weapons? Like Mikko Collins, John Metchi, the Titan from Dallas, Dalton Schultz, and then Damon Pierce, like, well, this isn't bad. I'm also very bullish on Scrowd, and I said, if he can just be decent, and they can be like 24th, 25th ranked offense, I like their defense. I like Demiko Ryan's coming in. I think Will Anderson, I know people, the thoughts about him is they overpaid, but you had a chance to get an elite pass rusher, and they did. I like their corners. If Derek Stingley is as good as I've been hearing about, and him, Desmond King, and Steven Nelson aren't a bad starting place, and, you know, when I think of Jimmy Ward, a guy who knows Demiko Ryan's system, beside second round pick, Jalen Petri last year, like, I start to look at this defense, I go, if I've got them about 24th, 25th on offense, and maybe 20th on defense, I don't think this team is a bottom two, three team, like everybody else does. Why are you so bearish on the Houston Texans this year? If they're better than they'll show it, right? I mean, like, you know, you say you like the offensive line, and like, you know, you probably understand their offensive line better than I do, but like, their offensive line didn't help them last year. And so, like, you know, maybe they're marginally better with Jack Mason, I don't know. But like, ultimately, like teams are systems, and the system wasn't working on either side of the ball last year, like, their defense had some OK games, sure, like, they got some talent and good scheme. But really, they just weren't that competitive of a team. So, to me, adding a question mark rookie quarterback in CJ Stroud isn't really inspiring, you know, having a unknown head coach in quarterback or a offensive coordinator, really just, it's kind of like an empty question mark for me. So, like, I don't see a reason why I would expect CJ Stroud as a rookie to be better than Davis Mills as a second year player. I like Davis Mills personally. They don't have a ton of weapons on the offensive side of the ball, at least, you know, like, they have guys that might be good or were once good. And so, I just, and a defensive-minded head coach. So, I don't really, I don't really think this is a great situation to develop a quarterback like CJ Stroud, but at the same time, there are so many unknowns on this roster. So, if you're right, this is gonna be one of those teams that I adjust based on what I see. I'm not gonna punish them for who they were last year when they have so many new pieces. I also recognize that they're, like, piece by piece roster. It does look good. It has a lot of good names that I really believe in, but we'll just see how it all comes together. Yeah, I believe they're finally building foundational. Like, there's free agency strategy the last two years has been one year deals with everybody. And it's like, this isn't thinking long-term. It was kind of almost like they're just getting to the point where they're waiting the draft to quarterback. And now I'm finally starting to see guys that I can, I believe, will be on the roster in three years, which last year, there was maybe three guys on the roster that you thought would be there three years from now. So, I think I believe they're laying some of the foundation down. And listen, I'm 100% on the bullish side, and we talk about range of outcomes, because I don't believe Houston has this absolute monster range of outcomes. I'm just as a person who loves CJ Stroud. When I think of Houston, I think of them more like a six-win team as opposed to a three-win team. And I think that is the disconnect. My tier four, I labeled it not completely awful bad teams. Teams that are, will be frisky, even if the wins don't show up. Tier five is, I labeled this the probably should tank for Caleb Williams tier. And I put Tampa Bay 28. You had them 23rd, so that's one place I want to have a discussion. You had the Rams 27th, I have them 30th. I had Las Vegas 29th, you have them 26th. You have Carolina 28th, I had them 25th. I love this one, because I've heard a lot of people who believe Indianapolis has a really good upside to them. You have Indy 30th, and I've got them 31st. So we have some agreement there. And we both have Arizona as the worst team. Let's start with Tampa Bay. Tell me why they are 23rd on your list. I think we're going to have to talk about offensive lines again, aren't we? Yes, we are. So to talk about that, right? Because people hate Tampa Bay and the Rams because they're offensive lines. To talk about that, a couple of things. One, I don't think that we're as good at projecting how good offensive lines are for any given season. And that's in part because it's a five person unit, five, six, seven person unit, potentially, with the range of injuries, the range of bad performance, the range of input. Any variance we put into a player, like squaring it across the line. And so you have things like last year, we were sure the Steelers' offensive line was a problem, right? Because Ben Rothesberger was getting the ball out within two seconds every play. And still, there was getting pressure. And they couldn't run the ball at all, even with Naji Harris. It was like, this offensive line sucks. And then by the end of the year, last year, the offensive line for Pittsburgh was one of the best in the league by some people rating it. In part, because every single player on the line stayed healthy the entire year. They jailed, they really had some cohesion, they just really played well. And so I don't think that we have as much certainty. And so it's a team like Tampa Bay, people start with saying, with offensive line sucked. And I think a lot of the same things that happened to Ben Rothesberger's line happened at Tom Brady's line last year. They suffered injuries at key positions, center and left tackle. Those guys should be back. Like, I don't want to like lean too heavily into it, because I know they both coming out from major injuries. And they might be asked to do different things, right? When Tom Brady was running that offense, there was no threat of quarterback mobility. They defenses knew what was happening. It was a lot of screen passes, a lot of Tom Brady taking shots down field. And it was limited offense in terms of what they could do. And I'm not saying the Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask are like Anthony Richardson in terms of what they can do, but just a little bit of mobility, just a little bit of difference. And in the way they run their offense, might take some of the pressure off the obvious runs that they were setting up. I don't know, maybe they just continue to run the ball and first to second down every play. And the defense, their offensive line sucks again could happen. But I just think that when things dramatically change, like a quarterback changing, I tend to give the offensive line more of a blank slate and more of like a, yeah, let's kind of see how they do, especially with two guys coming back from injury. And I think if offensive line is okay, the bucks have great weapons on the outside. They've got a great defense, great defensive minded head coach. Like, this is a solid team all around, outside of quarterback and offensive line. So I think if you solve the offensive line or even if they're mediocre, then this is, you know, a competitive team and that's, that's going to win a few games and compete with some good teams. Yeah, when you look at defensively, like their D-line still has a lot of talent. They still have Devon White and La Vante, David at linebacker. I still like Carlton Davis and Jamal Dean, but I also, I was high on Zion McCallum. I know he didn't play much or didn't play well as a rookie last year. I believe he could fill in for Sean Murphy bunting. I like Antoine Winfield. I think he's one of the best safe fits in league. I thought Ryan Neal was one of the more under the radar safeties. And I like their weapons. So again, it does come down to O-line for me. And I guess I, this is where my weight goes. I, the problem I have with it is, Tristan Wurfs is moving from right tackle to left tackle this year. And he was a damn good right tackle. I don't even know that we can fully assume he'll be a damn good left tackle. Sometimes guys don't adjust right away and it takes a good portion. And Ryan Jensen was once upon a time a good center, but he's also close to 30 and coming back. So when I, I'm more cautious when I think of him. And then I look at like Luke Godecki and the rest of the role and when I look at it, I'm a little bit more bearish. And then I also have a head on for Baker Mayfield. I believe he sailed like to me. We're going to solve the greatest riddle in the NFL this year is can Baker Mayfield airmail Mike Evan six foot five? Because that to me, I cannot wait to see that dynamic play out. So, but if the O-line plays well, like you say, even just mediocre because I have him as like one of the four worst O-lines this year potentially. So if they play even mediocre, there's enough other talent on the roster, the schedule soft enough. So from that perspective, I can understand that. The other thing is I really hate their coaching staff. Every time Todd Bull spoke at a press room, like, oh, this is such an archaic way of thinking about football and running the ball. You have to establish the run. I just part of the metric is coaches. And I believe he puts a cap on them from that kind of perspective. The other one, I guess, I don't think we're too far off on everybody, like we're three spots off on the Rams. But I think we both fundamentally agree they'll be stronger in the beginning of the year and may regress towards the later portion of the year. So from that standpoint, well, let's do Indianapolis. Why are you and I missing the boat on them? Why are we so much against the market on Indianapolis where I think they're the second worst team in football? And you think they're the third worst team in football? I just don't really see the avenue for them to improve on last year. I mean, Anthony Richardson is a different dynamic at quarterback, surely. I mean, I don't know if they'll start week one. Let's assume that he does. So there's a massive unknown right there. I mean, we've seen offensive lines perform at a higher level when they have a mobile quarterback like that because it makes the job easier. We've seen mobile quarterbacks that can really get going in the run game less reliant on weapons on the outside. So I do understand the bullish case for the Colts. But again, I've got to see it to believe it. And what I saw in the limited amount of college film I watched from Anthony Richardson is some really, really nice looking plays and then some really, really dumb looking plays. And so if you watch a highlight real of Anthony Richardson, you come away thinking, this guy is the next in my homes. But then you watch a full play by play and it's like, what was he doing on that play? And the thing about the NFL is it's all about consistency at the quarterback position. You can't afford to have nine good plays on one really bad play. Let alone six good plays and four really bad plays. We've seen that with Justin Fields, right? He shows up on the highlight with these incredible plays. But down to down consistency and timing, like just isn't there. I don't really see that happening with Richardson. So I just think that this is a team that doesn't have a lot going for it. Doesn't have the weapons. It doesn't have the defense was kind of whatever last year. And I think getting an injured Darius landed back isn't really going to, or Shaq Leonard. He isn't really going to move the needle too much for me. I think I'm willing to move them if Anthony Richardson makes a material difference. But going into the season, I'm not expecting it. Yeah. You talk about consistency, right? Like that's the Dishon Watson. It's scrambling around and hitting big plays versus an offense that is methodical, moving the ball down the field. So you'll strike a team or our player that's more relies on big shots as opposed to consistently putting good plays back to back. Also, we have this mentality, everybody's like, you know, when a guy's a mobile quarterback, you got high range of outcomes, but they usually don't have that early in their experience. Like Justin Fields didn't have that early. And even Jalen Hurtz didn't look good in his first year as a star. Yeah, although if you go back far enough, you know, RG3 really killed it as a rookie. And so did Lamar. There's definitely, and you know, Anthony Richardson has a little bit of that. The only thing I will counter that is, I guess RG3 is unique because I believe Kaushan like one of the most brilliant minds we've ever had in football. And Lamar was very much insulated by a team that was already playoff bound with Joe Flacco. Whereas when you're, when you're come onto a bad roster and you're expected to do really well, it's a little bit more of a difficult transition. But I guess we are both willing to adjust if Indy shows something and Anthony Richardson does. But I'm with you right as it stands right now. I am more bearish on them. Let's talk about. Well, just real quick, if your angle is, you know, well, Shane Steichen, like really did some work with Justin Herbert as a rookie and then Jalen Hertz for two years. If that's your angle, like the Jalen Hertz thing is like, yeah, the Eagles had an elite offensive line with elite weapons downfield. And Jalen Hertz was in his, well, 30 year last year. Yeah, that's a completely different scenario than raw rookie with one year of college production in which he threw like 55% passes or whatever with a worse offensive line and Michael Pittman's your number one receiver and there's not really a great number two different situation. Yeah, AJ Brown and Devonte Smith were probably better than, and Dallas Goddard are probably better than all the weapons on the cult. So like, situationally, this is much different. Let's talk about personal goals. You say you're an ultra competitive person who likes to succeed. I am too. I don't like to do anything half-assed or mediocre. If you put me in a room and like, it's a new board game and I've never played it. By the end, I'm trying to figure out optimal strategy and I want to win. Like, that's how I'm wired. I'm not there to have fun. I'm there to win. What are some personal goals you've set for yourself this year? Winning is fun, George. Yeah. Yeah. So, so my, let's start. I know you're going to ask me in my long-term after this. I'm going to flip the order out. My long-term goal, my, my ultimate goal is to consistently beat late-week NFL spreads, right? So Saturday, Sunday, whatever. That's a really, really difficult goal. I'm not there yet. I hope to be soon, but you know, it's going to take a lot of time to really prove that. Because if you can do that, then I think your options are wide, right? You can get down a lot more money. You can, there's just things you can do with that. So that's my singular goal. So my goal this year to take it back to your question is, is to evaluate where I am in that process, right? So like, I want to put my model, you know, day by day, like what, what games I would bet at current lines at which books and, and track and see like, if I was betting those amounts, like, how would I be doing this year? So my goal this year is to succeed on late-week NFL spreads. That's the, the long-term goal and the short-term goal, but I'm realistic in, in thinking that like, it's not going to be something I get overnight, but it's something I'm working on every year. And this is the first year that I've felt like my system is developed enough and sophisticated enough to really get the job done. So I'm excited to see whether or not I able to do it. I love it. I want you to keep sharing your journey. You know, when I was talking to producer Jason, usually I send like 25 questions to people and I take stuff out on the fly. And I'm like, just to make sure that I can get enough good stuff in, I think I sent you like six questions and I'm like, oh, we'll fill the hour. Like, I, I already know her and we crossed the one hour mark. So we did it, Clark. I think three combined episodes and we've done maybe five hours worth of speaking. So that's always a good time. I want to thank you, man. Yeah, thanks for having me on. I really appreciate being here. I hope that your listeners are able to get something out of it. And I would DM me if you have any questions or want to yell at me or whatever. Like I love engaging with people that, that think about the stuff as much as I do, so. And they can find you're doing live shows every Thursday, right? Tell them about that. Yeah, move the line as podcast I do with 444.com, which is where I write my analysis as well. We release every Thursday. We're going through division previews right now, but we'll also do some in-season stuff where we talk about different matchups and stuff like that. All right, I can't wait, man. We're what, five weeks away. And the anticipation is killing me. Just, I am so excited. Thanks so much, Clark. Thanks, George. Hey, that's it for me. Another edition of 90 Degrees is in the books. I want to thank my guest, Sharp Clark and a fellow originator, content creator at 4-4-Bets. The sponsor of this of... Hey, that's it for me. Another edition of 90 Degrees is in the books. I want to thank my guest, Sharp Clark and a fellow originator, content creator at 4-4-Bets. The sponsors of this podcast, Pinnacle, at Vettstamp, and my producer, Jason Cooper. Thanks for listening. Do me a favor before you go. Like the content, subscribe, share, and comment. We'll be back next week with another guest on the 90 Degrees podcast, where we give an inside look into the sports betting industry. That's it for me. Hope you enjoyed. Until next time.