90 Degrees | Episode #32 Insider Secrets Exposed: How Circa Sports Moves Lines, Sets Opening Odds, and Beats Bettors

Hey, on this week's episode of 90 degrees, we take a look inside the sharpest book in Las Vegas circus sports We find out how and why they move their lines do they model their openers and how to spot when a better is trying to head Fake the market that and more on today's episode the 90 degrees podcast Welcome to the 90 degrees podcast. I'm your host G stack George Where we give an inside look into the sports betting industry and honestly the first episode was the success I heard a lot of great feedback and I want to keep pushing with great episodes That's why my next guest is someone who works for the sharpest sports book in Las Vegas His name is Jeff Davis assistant sports book manager at circus sports Jeff. Thanks for joining me Hey, thanks for having me George Jeff. I always I always ask people. What was your first introduction to sports betting? Maybe not when you made your first bet, but when you heard about the concept of betting on sports So when I was in high school, I I'll say junior year. I worked at an indoor baseball facility And there were like some collocal college players that would come and work out or help run camps and things like that And you just kind of you know, they bet you talk about it and then you just You just end up getting involved with somebody like me who like I love to all sports and I love competition So sure, let's bet Probably I was probably like junior year high school when I first made you know when I made my first bet And then I was you know, that was the end of it for me. It was from there on and Do you remember what you bet on and who you bet it with like did you you had a local bookie? Was it offshore back in the day and what was it you were betting on? No, it was a Monday night football game. I remember um Gosh, I want to say it was a stealers. I don't remember who they're playing or what the number was But you know, it was like 20 or 30 bucks and you know, I just called like The the guy like the college kids that I worked with and I was like hey, can you get this bet in for me? And they did and like it's just kind of like it was more of a Once in a while thing at that time because I mean Your high school kid. You don't have any money. So you can't really bet So no, it was just like a fun introduction to the whole world that is sports betting and it you know As you get further along in your life. You realize how little you knew back then The all-important question is do you remember if you won or lost your first bet? Oh, you abs. I absolutely won. I mean, it doesn't everyone win their first bet And then they go through an immediate losing streak after when reality hits them how hard this is Yeah, I mean the big catches up for sure especially when you really don't know what you're doing I heard you played poker as well. Do you do you remember how you got into poker when it was? No, you know, I used to like to go to the casino and just Essentially shred money because I just wanted to gamble when I was in 21-22 and then I had a buddy that You know go play poker and you can spend all pay and if you lose it takes you eight hours instead of eight minutes and So I just started messing around playing low stakes cards for a few years and then As somebody that is Always been competitive. I wanted to get good at it. I was like I enjoyed it And I played cards like with the family growing up playing like cribbage and pitch and games like that So I was like well, there's got to be a way to beat this because You're playing against other people And so I just did a lot of reading and then you learn like I started playing a lot of Omaha high low because it was more It while all poker is math that game was like extremely math and mechanical Uh, which is more my thing. So I just uh, yeah, I just started playing Omaha high low and I realized like You know while the variance was insane. It was just a really good game You know a lot of people would play in that had absolutely no idea how to play it. So that's just kind of where I I just kind of evolved from playing You know casino table games to To playing poker and that was jeez. I was probably 21-22 and then Ah I probably played a casino table game once every 12 to 18 months now like oh, it's just play craps for the sake of it But just like never now. I went from always wanting to play to never wanting to play Well, I want to actually talk about that, but you're you talk about evolving from cribbage like for me It was like euker and gin and hearts and spades and I love the concept of finding a game Finding an edge and playing like perfect strategy the ideal way to maximize your dollars What when did you you weren't born in Vegas? When did you move out there? Um, I'm from Massachusetts. I ended up there in November of 2005 so I'm almost 20 years here now and guy was probably playing poker for Like professionally for like a year before I came out and then I did it for like another year Here and then I made some terrible life decisions and shredded most of my money So that's when I started working at like the end of 2006 When 2005 like that's part of the poker boom right like was Vegas On fire at that moment like back in 2005 Yeah, the games are like really good and there was you know So I was playing mostly Omaha high low so I could play at the there was a game at the win And there was a game at the Orleans like that went almost all the time and Occasionally they'd get a like a 2040 limit game going at the Bellagio during like if there was a world poker tour event It was like the greatest game in the world because you get the 30 60 hold him was was so long that people didn't want to wait You know two hours to get in the game So you get a bunch of holding players in a in a Omaha game and it was just it was just so good for You know the year I did it and then you know, it's just I just moved on from poker and you get into the working world and now I actually couldn't tell you the last time I played poker. I have absolutely no idea. I'm gonna say Got at least 10 years since I've sat the poker table. I just don't have time You have to be able to like when you sit in the game You have to be able to shut your life off for as long as you're gonna sit there And if the game is good, you're just gonna sit there and you know wife doesn't matter daughter doesn't matter Job doesn't like you just play so I've just got to the point where I can't do that anymore Can you talk about like the shift in mindset because like a lot of people I've heard who work in sports books. They were once like very into sports betting and Into gambling themselves like right now in Vegas the world series of poker is happening right now So there's obviously a buzz going on in the city How do you shut off the love for sports betting and poker Into you know what now it's a job. I no longer want to do that aspect of it It's like You're just kind of you're doing it for somebody else instead of doing it for yourself really. I mean My life hasn't changed in terms of how many hours of effort I'm putting in every day like yeah, if I'm only in the office for Seven eight hours a day that doesn't mean I'm not scouring through Twitter or tinkering with some Google sheet that I have or whatever at home. So like even when I'm not There I'm still there. So You know, I were like putting in hours has never been a challenge for me like I was just what I do So really I'm just kind of going for Grinding for myself versus grinding for someone else, but You know, you're doing it for a paycheck versus You know, whatever you win gambling. I mean now that I've done this for so long. I I couldn't imagine going back to Like the professional gambling side and trying it like the mental challenges of fighting through like the Low side of the cyclical streaks that gambling has is really tough when you don't have a paycheck Got it You know often gambler say it's not just about the money oftentimes It's like the problem solving aspect. It's the beating you know the gamesmanship of it It's the validation of it. Do you get some of those same thrills Being a bookmaker and setting lines and doing really well like do you Did you have you filled that uh adrenaline that you get on the other side of the counter now? Yeah, like I wouldn't use the word adrenaline, but definitely it's a game to where You know, you're trying to get somebody to bet a number Like if you open a number early that you know, let's say the market's not really up yet You're like first to market or at least your first of a place that'll take a real bet to market Trying to get somebody to bet something And then have it go like come back to your number to where they're not actually um Getting a good price like If you hang a baseball like if you hang a college baseball game if the world has like 11 and you just hang nine Because you know that's the number Yeah, you're gonna get bets over nine and over nine and a half from scalpers And then when it closes eight and a half it makes you like that's the goal Like obviously, it's not really possible in major markets to have that kind of discrepancy, but Like in the obscure stuff. It's yeah, it's that's like that's the kind of stuff that you're like Talking about where you're you're trying to find Something that you're like I know this is wrong and you can Yeah, when you hang a number to place it takes a bet you can You can decide who bets what where and when like I can hang a number like are at this is gonna get bet in 20 seconds And it does every time Yeah You you say you get a job into sports betting What was your first job like which which um sports book was it and what was your role there? So When I realized like I woke up one day and like I don't know we'll call it middle of october of 2006 I was like, I have two grand and no job and I should probably start working and I don't have a college degree. So You know kind of know I have to go to casino route and then I see that ball is Uh, is hiring sports book ticket writers and I'm like, well, I've never worked at casino before but I've Bet sports my whole life and I you know, I Used to go to like high lie when I was you know, in that 2021 whatever and It was some familiar with all the stuff. So I went in and interviewed Uh Luckily for me the guy who interviewed me who was a supervisor there grew up like 20 minutes from where I grew up So that just turned into a conversation So I got hired there and that was uh, that was my first gig. I started at ballies like Right around Thanksgiving of 2006 as a ticket writer Now you said uh, you know august you're you're like I got two thousand dollars. I need a job Vegas strikes me a little bit like Hollywood or LA where A lot of the people there aren't exactly born and raised there They kind of get there with a dream and an aspiration and then it's like all right. How do I fit in let me find Somewhere to build a career path Are do you find that or do you think your situation is unique or do you think a lot of people went to Vegas With a dream and aspiration and then maybe said hey, maybe I need to shift shans here and and get a get get a job within the industry Yeah, I mean I can't imagine like it. It's got to be pretty common because here like There's so many walks of life. There's so many jobs like because there's so many casinos and there's so many roles in a casino That if you come here and you don't end up like Not necessarily thriving, but like if you can get a job and like You know live a decent life if you can't do that then like it's really on you There's just so much opportunity out here now. I can't speak for it now just because I've Kind of more established in my career, so I don't really know what That type of job market is in these days compared to 15 years ago, but I mean just knowing how big casinos are and how many You know How many employees these places have I can I can't imagine it's all that difficult to to find work at a decent place So you're at Bally's now you're a ticket writer how long are you there and then what's your next move from there? So I wrote tickets for probably I don't know I think through like the NCA tournament and then I was like counter supervisor from like We'll call it April of 2007 And then when the economic crash hit in 2009 They closed the Bally sportsbook for the summer so me and a couple others got laid off I worked at the world series of poker cage for the summer And that got me like back in a play in poker again because I've just around it and So I was like You know, I didn't have a wife and a kid at that time So I was working and then going to play and then Just doing it over again for like three months and it was fun But I was happy to get back to the sportsbook job once you know once the fall and football rolled around they reopened they hired me back So I stayed the I was at Bally's until I left to go to the em resort and canter gaming in October of 2010 I believe Were you ticket writing there as well or did you have a different title by the time you got well? I When I went there it was funny Boss was like all right We got a thousand people that want this job if you want this job you start Friday or normal hire somebody else And it was like it was like Tuesday and like I've been with Bally's four years and I was friendly with the boss And I like there was a terrible phone call to make having a call like you know a guy that I'm still friendly with and be like Hey, here's my 48 hour notice like it's kind of shitty But just was the situation that I needed to do and Now I wrote tickets for like a few months and then Canter was expanding so they opened Hardrock Trappokana and Cosmo all like in a relative short period of time Somewhere in the vicinity of Christmas 2010 So they sent me I was like the the man the operations manager at Trappokana for like almost a year But they knew that that's not Like I'm not an out front guy like anybody who knows me knows that nobody wants me talking to customers So I just They called me down to go work at the M like in the you know in the risk department to start the 2011 football season so you know just you know what late August of Of 2011 I went there and that's when I started that was my first job like behind the screen so to speak All right before we get back to the pod I want to talk about our sponsor pinnacle pinnacles The world's sharpest sports book and available to betters in Ontario Find out what professional betters have known for decades pinnacle is where the best betters play must be 19 plus an Ontario Please play responsibly not available in the US and now back to the show Who teaches you like? How to you know manage risk and how to trade and how to set lines Did you have a mentor within the industry at this point? It's someone teach you the ropes No, and working at that place Especially knowing what what went on now like nobody was teaching you anything you had to learn for yourself You know like cober was really sharp and and he had leans and he would leave it like he'd be in his office And we'd be out front he'd leave us The leans for like when he was out of the office But for the most part it was just like learning yourself and trying to piece together Like watching the bets come in and like watching him move and you still didn't really know like What was right? What was wrong? Did you have an end? Anybody tell you what was right? What was wrong? You just had to figure it out and then uh, you know all the stuff went down with pinnacle I don't know what we'll call it October of 2012 and then The four of us that were under him were just Basically left to run the place with no leadership um and we had right Colbert was doing so much. We really didn't do a lot ourselves So it was like total trial by fire and of course The month that it happened was like the worst month in Nevada sports betting I don't know history, but it was closed. There was a november Where like nine of ten college foot the top ten teams in the college football like nine or ten of them covered every week for four straight Books got absolutely massacred So that didn't obviously didn't make us look good. It was like bad timing and we didn't know what we're doing So it was a total disaster and then They hired Tony D. Tomaso who's a guy who was at Will Hill And he ran CG for a while And he actually taught me a lot of the fundamental stuff You know about the why you do things and why you move this way in that way and then I could take some of what he taught me and then like some of what I watched from Colbert and kind of Because you can kind of make your own decisions as to what I write is what are wrong Like the math is always right, but there's not You couldn't write a manual about how to make book like not all to get no games are the same Like It's you got to kind of wing it figure it out a lot of times But so you can if you can pull from a few people's like the way they do things you can usually find something that fits for you You know you said two things there that resonated with me like the idea of first time you're swimming alone and like You're getting your your teeth kicked in because every every public favorite is is winning in big droves We had a radio station in Toronto that opens up in 1994 First ever talk radio station across Canada and 1994 happens to be like baseball strike hockey strike and the raptors don't exist yet So basketball is not a huge market in Toronto and it's like what a debut like your first three months You have nothing to talk about because everybody's on lockout and and it's kind of like that All right, we're gonna learn a lot in these next three months because you're either gonna sink or swim The other thing you said is You can know the math and you can know some of the fundamentals, but a lot of bookmaking Strikes me as being feel and art I remember Daniel Negrano Used to used to be asked why are you so good at reading situations and calling out people's whole cards And he said it's not just math it goes when you've done it a thousand times You've developed a sort of instinct of like I've been here before I've seen this situation before There's overlap and that that is part of His style and why he's so successful at what he does you you think it's the same for sports line-making I think Not so much line-making but booking like once you as as the week goes out like through like You know football games are on the board for the better part of a week. So like Limits evolve information comes out bets come in groups play one side groups play the other and it's kind of like You spend a lot of the week trying to figure out What you know, they're trying to do are they betting this total down now so they can get more come game day and like They're betting under 53 and a half and under 52 and a half and it's gonna close 55 like what The happens like quite frequently and like trying to figure out You know who's doing what and why and and what bets are real and what bets are not and it's I mean, I've booked hundreds of thousands of games and it's still a challenge and I still get fooled sometimes and that that's inevitable There was a guy was early in my early in my career. I was at CGE and I It was like conference turn Conference championship week in a college football. It was Boise State against Doesn't matter lay in like 23 and a half and I'm in the office and the number starts to To drift to 24 and we had already had some money on a favorite And I was like do I just follow this to 24? Do I stay? And I was like no because if I follow it to 24 Billy's gonna come in and smash the dog and it's gonna close 21 And I'm gonna be a fool for going to 24 well Billy like 23 and a half and it went to 27 You could never really write anything back and you know they won easy and it's like The constant decision of like whether to take a bet or at what number is such a challenge And it's still a challenge You know if somebody lays you four in a basketball game and you go to five And the number keeps going to five and a half or six do you go to five and a half do you write another better five and a half or do you Write the better five like do you go to five and a half and then they take five and a half And then you didn't take a bet to get there that's a no like so it's you're making these decisions split second based on the information That's at hand then it's like It's not an exact science and just trying to You know Earn as much as possible as the bookmaker without leaving yourself middle or without leaving yourself get Getting like to get run over on one side. It's very challenging especially in college basketball when there's you know 120 games on a Saturday You know, um, I I watch the markets diligently especially in the NFL So throughout the season you start to pick up on some tendencies on Certain teams move during certain points in the week because obviously there's some sharp groups that end up liking them Do you pick up tendencies on players and and and almost anticipate When they're going to come in for a bet and what numbers do you have that instinct or is it always just When it happens that happens and you react Well, I mean you kind of get to know like razz tells everyone when they're going to release so that like you see Know when they're playing and then you have like dr. Bob releasing stuff and like It's all you know like I never know when dr. Bob releases But we know who the players are that play it so like you know when it's him and like you're following twitter And you if you happen to see a piece of news that maybe a better Does it hasn't seen yet? You then have to decide. Okay, is this worth anything and should I move the number or do I want to take a bet at this number? Is it going to move um You know like in hockey if i'm watching like you watch twitter in the morning for like all the morning skate reports And then you see that you know a semi-key player that's worth something to the numbers not at morning skate Do you move the number so that you don't get you don't get bet or do you take the bet or do you hope that You because you're not going to find out if he's actually out or not until Maybe after practice or sometimes not until 38 minutes before the game when they take warm up so like it's always a cat mouse game With how real you might think the information is so it's a lot. It's not just seeing bets It's like trying to get ahead of like the bets that are going to come Like when I was at Caesars trying to explain To executives that don't book games like you can't quantify bets that don't come like when you make moves and you make good moves you stop You stop more bets from coming in and while some of these just looking at a spreadsheet isn't going to see that bet but You know these there's so many bets that you save by getting ahead of things throughout the year that makes so much of a difference to the bottom line that Like it's it's totally like a a lot of the stuff is just a race to information Sure you you notice that a lot of pphs and Illegal books they now tend to stake themselves to a sharp book and move while you guys move whether they take a better not um, do you think that's um A smart decision on their part or do you think that leaves you a little bit too exposed? Wow, it's it's hard say I mean I There's definitely a few places I see Like there's a couple places I put on my screen That During college basketball because they seem to get the first bets on college basketball totals like the good bets So they're on my screen, but I also know that Circa is definitely a big percentage of what they're using as a consensus line because like when when we move like a random event they move almost all the time so like It can hurt us at times because like if you want to get a bet sometimes you can't because you move and then everyone else like we joke in the office We call it circus team so like we can We can move a line and everywhere moves and we might not have taken a bet We just might be moving a line for the sake of it just to watch it happen like we've definitely done that before um You know like what if there are three people managing Uh the college football markets throughout the week and one person's been off for two days and then he comes in and he goes through the lines and He doesn't like seven of the where seven of the lines are so he moves them all we might not have taken a bet and Everywhere moves and they have no idea so we might have taken a bet somebody might have come in and made six bets And we might have reacted them, but we might not have so it's always like It's always a guessing game and these places can definitely get themselves hurt by doing that too So like there's pros and cons like it's just it's a running joke in the office somebody makes a bet We move the number and like the whole screen explodes and we know like but you know who's betting and you know like when certain people make bets The screen is gonna explode and then like somebody else makes a bet and the screen explodes you like this guy's not putting everywhere It's it's not funny sometimes You mentioned circa when do you get the call um say hey We're building this sportsbook. We want a catered at sharp bettors Who makes the phone call when do you get it? Well, I was still at Caesars um Matt McEff reached out to me I honestly don't remember when um, but I went down that I went downtown to meet like him And uh, I think actually I think I went to like meet him for a beer once just casually And then like maybe a month later while circa was still being built Like it was really just a big empty plot of land with some steel beams Um, I went down town. I like met Derek and like In a very informal fashion. There were like 15 or 20 people hanging out having drinks and like just kind of PS thing So it was like a cool it was a cool environment to meet him and like I knew I was on board and I knew I wanted to go but Given my You know, we'll call it situation at Caesars. I kind of needed to stay until Like the Caesars El Dorado company merger happened So pretty much as soon as that happened. I called Matt and I was like, yeah, I'll be I'm coming like I had to I gave Caesars like a month notice and then I got I started at circa Just before football of 2020 so like coming out of like the covid pause I guess if you want to call it that um, so yeah football of 2020. We'll say Now like did you have a relationship with Matt like or or was it he had just heard about you through someone else in the industry Um both myself and like Matt Lindeman worked for me and like he was trying to recruit people that he knew like knew what they were doing so we kind of both met you know we went together to meet him and just chat with him So like no, I had never met him before that but like once we had our first meeting it was probably Thought it was at least a year before I started working at circa um You know, we stayed in like We stayed in contact and would like randomly send a text or whatever like it wasn't like we were close friends at that point it was just uh it was just kind of like Him making him sure know that like I still was interested um But I was just kind of I had to stay where I was at for the time being just for Contractual purposes Sure So you you're aware of each other like you're within the seam uh You know atmosphere the same ecosystem. I come from news media and there's this awful awfully weird dynamic that when you're away from actual work And you're like out in the social circle everybody wants to talk about work I guess When you have certain jobs you identify as that job and it becomes a lot of your life Is that what your social life is outside of the sportsbook? Are you like always in sportsbook mentality Or do you completely want to drop it and separate like work and uh social life completely It depends like it depends on what time of year it is like now I have the ability to kind of shut it off because hockey's over college baseball's about to be over golf never ends but I'm only booking the golf Monday Tuesday Wednesday And once the golf tease off We have another guy in the office Sam Cooney who we hired like last fall's really sharp with the golf he works nights and doesn't all the He does all like the updated odds and the round matchups and things like that He'll send him to me like and I give him a once over and you know I might tinker with him a little bit But he's doing a lot of the heavy lifting so Once it's just golf I can kind of take a step back for you know six eight weeks here and relax and spend some more time with my wife and kid Which is enjoyable But no like once like during the season I can't really turn it off because like If I'm out to dinner with a buddy And you know there's a trade and hockey like it's on me to Send it you know get in touch with somebody at the office like hey move this future price move that move this this has to happen Um, it's on me. So I can't really Completely turn it off ever But you know during the summer when the sports that I manage aren't Like in full flight. I can kind of at least take a step back a little bit which is nice You get burned out because so I worked in news media and There was this dynamic where I'd go and watch a movie and there was always a panic coming out of the movie To quickly check to see Has the world blown up in those two hours that I was watching movie I could never shake this feeling like First thing I did when I woke up and last thing I did when I went to bed was check what's going on in the world Is is that and I describe in your situation at all and does it ever burn you out Burnt out's not the word I use um there are times when you get overwhelmed where Like worlds collide in your sports one example um The golf is absolutely like especially major weeks is absolutely insane how busy it is and because of The covid seasons the previous couple years it kind of changed the off season dates in the NHL and last year and if NHL free agency was the same day as the day before the british open And like the wednesday before majors is like Those are the four busiest days of the year for me So I actually couldn't Keep up with all of the NHL move so now I've got to like It was so overwhelming because now I have to go through every single move that was made and like Update all my you know update all my google docs and stuff with all my hockey stuff on it which If there's no golf that day I can just kind of Do it as the moves come and like it it kind of takes care of itself and then Once the major week got over it was like monday and I'm like oh my god. I have I have hours and hours and hours of stuff to do and I can't do any preseason hockey like Projections points any of this until I get all of these guys on their teams. I have no idea who went anywhere and like Situations like that are tough like a few weeks ago. You've got First round of the NHL playoffs region like getting into the college baseball regionals and like You get to the point where there's two weeks off in the college baseball season and you're managing college world series future And all these bubble teams like wins and losses matter so much to the future pricing and like It's just a lot to take in and it just it naturally happens a couple times a year And you just got to put your head down and grind through it Yeah For myself. I only bet NFL football combat sports and sometimes political events I don't get into any other sports and part of it is I understand the football markets and how they move Better but the other part is is quality of life I mean like there's only so much hours in your life and It's not always time to grind and Try to be making money. There's parts of life where you just want to relax reset your brain So you don't get burnt out in your fresh So much like you I have a really busy season and then I have a really slow offseason where I get to kind of decompress And enjoy the other aspects of life a bit Yeah, I I've actually eliminated All betting from my life outside of hockey golf and college baseball like I You know for the last couple of years I could just grind top-down You know NFL first half totals like college like that kind of stuff And I could just I could grind my way in a you know two three percent ROI without any thought really just knowing When places are off around key numbers and stuff but When I get home from work on a Saturday with you know college football going on And you've got a 14 game NHL board on booking I'm doing college football half times when I get home from work I don't want to put on Nevada Fresno college football game at 730 at night on CBS sports because I have under 63 I just don't want to do it and if I have a bet on it I know me I'm going to put it on the TV and I just I just decided that the couple of percent and the little extra money I could make You know Grinding top down just it wasn't worth it to quality of life So now it's just like the betting is full go from you know preseason hockey through Pretty much the end of the regular season and then some hockey series prices and college hockey like the college baseball rather Um, but you know from now until Like September like I'll make a few golf out right bets on the weekends, but for the most part like I just don't want to deal with that anymore And it's just not worth it. I'd rather just shut my brain off It's another thing with that is like When I do random podcasts or I talk to people or people on Twitter will ask me about in-game stuff I have no idea I don't bet in game my average annual in handle and in game is zero um When I I've made a bet I know what the price should be pregame I don't know what the price should be with six minutes left in the second quarter and it's 14 seven I have no idea because it's like a whole different world Of like learning like what the numbers should be at what point in the game based on the score is just too much Um, and I need to turn my brain off at some point. So yeah, I just in game while popular for many is just nothing that I think I could possibly be interested in doing Jeff you're like speaking my language. I preach it all the time on the podcast I just want to enjoy the game. I've already got my action in pre-flop. I'm happy with that I don't want to be the guy grinding in front of five different screens live and trying to get incremental edges And I don't know what what juice is appropriate and what the updated line should be and then the the only thing I'll do is If there's a major injury and I see it in game like a Monday night football game Kyler Murray blows out his knee in a second play of the game I know like my two slowest moving books and I'll pull them up and See if I can take a bite of the apple quickly But besides that I just there's a part of me that just wants to enjoy sports because I before I ever got into sports betting I was a sports fan so every other sport outside of football I watch it from a fan perspective and I'm not thinking about trying to grind out You know a two three percent ROI here Yeah, I can't like I can tell you with confidence that if I think a team should win 62% of the time pregame I'm pretty confident my number and if I can bet minus a dollar 45 pregame I'm gonna do it and But I I would rather I feel like if I was constantly with my head in the screen trying to figure out what life prices should be I wouldn't actually be watching the game and I feel like you can pick up tendencies about the way teams play by watching games that Yeah, they don't mean a ton to the number But if you see something happen in a team's game a few times in a row It like goes in the back of your mind and it can tinker with a rating you might have or Knowing how teams play and knowing that okay, this is my pregame line, but the way teammate plays should be able to It'll give him a bigger advantage against team B So maybe the number should be just a little bit higher like things like that if I was grinding live lines I wouldn't be able to pick up Widow nuances that happen in games that might make me make like a half a percent adjustment to a number or one percent adjustment to a number Hey the easiest way to improve as a sports better is use multiple sports books and always get the best odds We recommend using an odds comparison tool like bet stamp best stamp compares odds across every sportsbook for games Futures and player props save time and money by clicking bet stamp before you bet download the app today If you are looking to sign up for a new sports book account, please check out the offers available at bet stamp.app Forward slash circles off or hit the link in the description if you sign up through this page It helps support the show I want to talk about Twitter because I think Twitter has changed the world of sports betting forever information is instantaneous now beatwriters National newsbreakers they all tweeted out before they go on their own Companies and talk about it in detail Do you guys have a dedicated guide just looking at Twitter all like it feels like it'd be worth the salary to pay one Guide is sitting in front of the screen and monitor twitter all the time for any news that might be coming in Well pretty much anyone that sits in that office has a tweet deck open at all times and like we kind of each person Like a few of us are specialists where You know, I managed the hockey crisp and it manages the baseball like Everybody kind of has sports they manage and it's like on you To be following like what you need to follow and then there are some guys that like they might based on the schedule Like okay, they might have this sport today that sport tomorrow They're like they're responsible for whatever sport they're booking and like you kind of know Like especially like I don't do any NBA at all But I know like the back-to-back thing and you know these guys are going to be resting so if it's like Golden states on a back-to-back you're going to have a tweet deck Call them with Steph Curry in it like you're just going to have a tweet deck call him up quite Thompson in it and you just have to and you just like Because if you don't you just get run over and like you have to be first the information or you just take limit bet So that's just one example, but yeah Twitter is The value of to the information on Twitter is unbelievable and like that There was a period a few months ago where everybody would afraid that Ewan was going to pull the plug and it was It was like kind of a disaster You're like well, how am I going to know who's going to play gold like how am I going to know all these things like I can't even imagine what the sports betting world would be for like the 24-hour period right after like if Twitter just was gone 100% it's it's the biggest edges you'll ever have is getting a piece of information and hitting a book before they adjust to the information and I literally part of like I'm obviously watching the screens and the markets when I'm also on Twitter It's like multiple screens set up because I've got to I've got to get all that information just and sometimes it's 12 hours watching a screen for 10 minutes of action and that 10 minutes of action makes your whole day worth it Yeah, the Saturday like the Tuesday Thursday Saturday NHL cards that have like 12 to 15 games My morning is spent like we have we have six monitors that are at our desk one of them is tweet deck You know just watching the morning skate stuff and then trying a time like if I have to pee like Okay, this coach just spoke about You know whatever happened in morning skate the next morning see like okay, I have 10 minutes and then you like you kind of get to learn the The timing of each teams and when they do things and how the beat writers report it and Yeah, it's If you you're nothing without Twitter in this industry. I hate to say it, but it's just the truth I have a funny story where one bathroom break Killed one of the biggest pieces of news that it was out there. I was it was do you remember the week In football where Josh Allen was questionable with the elbow We didn't know what what the address was and Gates Minnesota the line was like leaking from seven and a half down to like three and a half and it was and was still total unknown It's an injury that no one's familiar with so you can't even make an educated guess at that point In in that three-minute window where I went to the bathroom and to grab a drink from the fridge That the news breaks at that moment of course now I'm always like resourceful. I'm like, okay, I've lost it But then you start looking at books that have next week's lines Port ahead because the Buffalo line against Cleveland was mislined It was aligned with that uncertainty of Josh Allen So I was able to move on that But I missed the boat because the biggest piece of injury information Everybody was waiting for for four days and I get caught in the bathroom at that one moment Yeah, it happens all the time. I mean you just missed stuff. I mean You know in this in this job like When it's busy. I just sit at my desk and like sometimes you're hungry sometimes you go to the bathroom Sometimes you need a water and you got to get up and you try to time it The best of your ability, but you really never know When somebody's going to pick that time to bet 14 make cut yes knows like all at the same time so like You never really know what's a good to you can have an educated guess as to what's a good time to take a five-minute break But you never really know No, I want to talk about the sharp book model um how long does it take for you guys to identify a sharp better Like do you know fairly quickly? Do you wait for a decent enough sample size to determine it? Some people are easy some people are harder um The best customer you can have is somebody that wins and doesn't move the screen um Those people generally take a little bit longer to realize that they're sharp because the market's not reacting when they play And a lot of that I would just assume as like Every sharp better at one point had no money or very little money for the most part They have made their money. So like if the guy's betting you in nickel That might be is that might be what his bankroll with stands at that current time That doesn't mean like you should just disregard every bet that's like $200 at $300. They might have just Begin their you know journey into sports betting so to speak To where they can win because that person might be betting 800 next year 1200 It's just like just judging somebody by their you know How much they're betting just isn't the correct move. So having somebody like that is a is a dream and Finding those people are are great and we we do a lot of like We're always looking at player stuff But then you have somebody that just shows up. You've never seen him before in the first three bets The hold on best screen turns orange like okay, this person knows what they're doing It doesn't take very long to realize so like yeah, no two people are the same, but Some people take longer than others the other challenging part is when you have somebody that like Shows up and they're betting something obscure like XFL w and b8 totals A more niche market and let's say they get hot early You might think they're sharp and then four months later you're like how did this person win all this money? And it just turns into a heater so you've got to be like You have to be mindful of people for a while and then eventually like after a few months you can really form an opinion But anything like really Anything is possible and you you hear at all the time about You know the Sharp guys flipping whales at any point some big better could the stuff could become sharp You never really know what's going on because there's always people trying to get an edge as best they can so I mean you got to kind of take a case by case some people are easier to figure out than others Well, we always hear about you know markets moving on sharp action What let's talk about head fakes How often do you think head fakes come in and Is it has it become easier to spot or do you sometimes still get blindsided by a head fake? um Depends on the sport honestly um on a Saturday college basketball I would expect there are like 50 or 60 head fakes a day maybe more um And it's not even so much a head fake as it is People don't want because they know like what we talked about earlier with pph's air moving on our moves so like if we're on an island Uh on a college basketball total number and somebody somewhere doesn't want everybody else to go to our number They'll bet us the wrong way to keep like to try to keep the market where they want it um that definitely happens Yeah, that it I mean they can come from anywhere they can come from any account like it just It again, I mean, it's just like anything The sharp guys know how the market works and they know how the market reacts and a lot of the times They're just trying to get us or maybe a few other sharp books like If they bet us and bet online and Chris or whatever and we all move everybody else is gonna move So it might only cost them one bet at each place to get 30 bets everywhere else um So yeah, you just have to be mindful of it and It's hard to you don't want to overreact to any one bet, but you don't want to You don't want to ignore it either. Just the more bets you get The more you can put the pieces together as to like okay this this side is right or this is the number or whatever the case may be Yeah, they're very very frequent in uh Like the smaller markets that maybe uh, you know props things like that Do you ever move on square action if there's enough volume? I mean, there's always a number right um A lot of the times it's not show which moving on square action. This is moving on unknown action like if you're a bookmaker and Let's say it's an MBA game the numbers painted six. It's the middle of the day. There's no It's there's no injury questions. It's not a back-to-back situation and some guy you don't know comes in and you give him like a double and With that on minus six Like if you don't know you could leave it because the number seems right But would you rather move it to six and a half and write a betback plus six and a half an earn and then like Worst case scenario you write a bet on both sides with earn or would you rather just sit there and then Three hours later somebody sharp comes in and bet you the same number and the number closes seven and a half You feel like a moron So like a lot of the times it's better to air on the side of caution You have no idea of that bet sharper square. You just don't know so like Like don't get killed is the first rule of bookmaking um So like if somebody comes in a bet you 50,000 minus six and your limit is say 20 You go to six and a half somebody bet you 20 plus six and have you go back to six like they lay in one ten both sides like It's perfect. It's great um And you don't feel bad like if the number closes five you don't feel bad about going to six and a half because you've like You've made some earn on those two bets. You just have to be quick enough To realize when it's going down not to take too much going down um But yeah, like moving on Like moving on square action like you have to ask yourself at all times If I go from this number to that number I can always take a limit bet at any number Would I rather have Like if I'm deciding between do I want to be at six or do I want to be at six and a half Would I rather take a what limit bet minus six or o limit bet plus six and a half if I had to pick one What would I choose and that's kind of how you make that decision So it sounds like sportsbooks often take a position But there's that false idea out there that sportsbooks are always looking for balance and just happy to take the juice Is there ever a case though where that is true like say a Super Bowl where the money is huge way bigger than your normal risk appetite Is there an attempt for balance and some Super Bowl offerings just because of how large the volume is Like yeah, you're the overall general idea of the casinos just trying to balance is like utter nonsense Because it's not possible first of all But like if you have like back to your square action moving on square action Let's say you're you know, you're it's an NFL side. It's game day limits 100,000 If you're at 150,000 and squift the numbers painted four across the world and you have you take 150,000 in like a cruel of recreational action on minus four If I go to four and a half and I insta write a hundred thousand plus four and a half from someone with a brain Like is that good bookmaking? I mean you've earned to it, but would you rather Just book the whole Lot at a correct number like probably um It's very case-by-case like if you can balance the the game easily as a bookmaker It's probably not a decision you should be making because you probably have the right side if you can get rid of the other like if you can dump it so Every every game is is is of its own Ilk like yeah big Super Bowl if there's no real sharp money on either side and you don't really know Sometimes it's like really not worth taking a huge gamble Not really gambling you're gambling with the best of it because everybody's laying a dollar 10 or like betting into a 20 cents split but I mean do you want an eight hundred thousand dollar decision or a Million and a half decision or whatever the number is Like with no real information as to what side is good or if there's a side sometimes not really like It's hard. It's it's so case-by-case like Certain people bet certain side and you're like okay players A B and C are on this side players D E and F are on this side Do we have a side we like here? can we Make a logical move to write something to put ourselves in a better position where we're not scalping or something Everything is Every game is alone in terms of like making a decision There's no way to like group them together where you can say okay. This is what we should do Now is this an internal dialogue or is there two three of you huddling together and saying hey this game You know the volume starting to come in what side do we like here? What side do we want to be on a a lot of the times like Like in sports where there's a specialist They might have they might say like This number on this game is way too high. I really like the dog in this range of numbers um You know if we write a bet on the dog be more aggressive so we can write a bet back on the favorite because It's 17 and a half and I really think it should be 12 um And you can book accordingly or you get there at Sunday you've written a bunch of bets. It's an NFL game Like you might ask somebody else Hey, you know, we're two and a half limit bets high on this game, but it came from person A B and C Do we want to write a bet back or do we want to gamble and you can talk it out? um Figure out where the numbers way where the money is where you'd have to go to write a bet and then you're like You just figure out like figure out the best course of action from all of the information that's been presented to you Like in the form of bets throughout the week Sure, I have two scenarios for you the first one is no matter what side comes out you've made money And then the second scenario is no matter what side comes out you lose money How often does the first one happen and how often does the second one happen The first one can happen in like smaller limit niche sports like You know, I booked the college baseball. Let's say there's uh You know, you put up the Friday night regular season lines and you see a couple numbers out in the world that just They're just not good so I'll hang a number that writes a scalp on the side I want to bet on And then you move it because you don't really want to take eight or not you don't want to take a bunch You just kind of want to like I always say is like a bookmaker your like your opinion is worth one limit bet It's really not worth more than that like maybe once in a great while it could be worth two But it's really not worth more than one So You put in you take that bet you move it and then inevitably some sharp guy bet you the bet you the right side And then you move his bet more aggressively the market is caught up and then no one bets it again and you know You make 50 100 bucks on each side and they bet you a time or two like that happens pretty that's a pretty common place On a bigger event Where the limits are five figures It's just a lot harder for that to happen solely because one limit bet can change your position so much and You know in NFL Sunday you're like okay, we you know, we only need to side for You know a quarter of a limit bet and then it 101 and 32nd somebody bet you a limit bet then you move it and then you don't have enough time to write something back So like that happens so that The smaller the limits the more likely that is to happen And that would be the same It's kind of the same answer for the other one where you lose on both sides um Just because once you've written enough volume the juice of crews and it's like really hard to like Continue to scalp yourself over a series of limit bets um Because once you get later in the week the line really can only move so much so if you want to you want to earn you can um It would be kind of like a reverse scenario of what I just said where You know, there's some niche market where a sharp guy makes you a bet and You you work confident in the price so maybe you make a bigger move than normal um To write something on the other side to wear like Somebody bet you a dime plus a dollar 40, but you really have no confidence in the number at all And maybe you go to minus 130 to write a bet on the other side because you think Losing a hundred dollars on one side and breaking even than the other is better than losing the thousand Like more often than not um Like sometimes caution is the better part of valor when you have no confidence in the number like it all comes back to don't get killed um So yeah, it happens, but really only in like smaller limit niche sports where there are nearly as many number of bets What about like see an information Changer like You know denver newer leans a few years ago in covid the news that the whole cubie room has covid and they can't play and Maybe you get but a bunch of people clicking for the limit On newer leans and then when you reopen it you don't know where the hell you are And maybe they say no you've you've gone way too far and they hit you the other way Is there scenarios like that where you're just like damn that we just it is what it is there's nothing we can do about that Yeah, I mean that stuff you can't do you kind of like all the bets that have come in before like a surprise news You almost have to like forget they're there you got to just throw it out new game start over It is what it is the bet has been made But one that I can think of that's best example of that a couple years ago It was unsure if tiger was going to play in the masters like right up until like the day before and We thought it was a good idea for marketing Let's put up this will tiger woods tee off in the masters yes, no Take a dime take two dimes whatever we took um But because it's it's like almost like booking a draft in that It's what I like to call a no variance event like if you bet the chiefs minus 10 and then You know pat my homes breaks his leg fallen down the stairs like leaving his house on Sunday morning and the game goes to pick him You can still win your bet Like in these in these drafts or in these there's no what's going to happen happens so Like if somebody with a brain bets you Minus two dollars the move is like minus eight dollars not minus 240 because They might know they might have the answer already and you have no idea so booking those is It's not fun at all Because you think Note you get no recreational action and you have to assume every single bet is a winner Um, so you're going from like $2 to $8 to $5 to $3 to $9 like so you're just going to get killed like because They're just you're giving away so much earn every time but You're kind of locking up an 80 or a $10,000 loss so you don't lose 80,000 Um, and what you get in publicity for it like it pays for like what you lose to it Um, but yeah that kind of event You kind of have to disregard the logic of bookmaking the things that are so information driven like booking drafts is It's so bad Yeah, I know It's so good on my end as of course like as it's all information and like We're talking about this in the office the other day like we haven't booked the NBA draft in a couple years But if we were going to book it the NBA draft you need to have three people That all they do all week is the NBA draft and they don't look at anything and One of them has to be awakened on Twitter at all times And then when you see news you have to move it and you have to be people and it can't matter where the bets were You just have to be right and you're like okay This player that maybe wasn't thought that he was going to get drafted here is now very likely So he goes from like plus 140 to minus four dollars And you just have to move it and write the bets on the other side and hope you're right It's just a race to information and as a bookmaker like it kind of sucks, but You know NFL draft is a necessary evil like as the bookmaker. It's just too popular in that book But something like the NBA draft like Sometimes it's just best like What do you gain from booking it as the bookmaker? I have two more questions for you before I let you go and you've been so generous with your time There's often the idea that You know Locals love to bet the local team and it doesn't matter if they're getting the worst price in market They're always going to bet their local teams. So I always joke. I have Some people I know who book in here in Toronto. They're very happy that Toronto is a losing sports city and then you think of like the bookies in Boston who the last 20 years have been booking Like patriots The Celtics the Bruins the Red Sox basically everybody's won a championship Vegas just won the Stanley Cup Is it the same sentiment of locals love their local team and and was it like you know what we we took a little bit of a hit here Yeah, I mean it was and like there's two examples of that so The first year they were here. It was very widely noted how bad of shape the books were in I worked at Caesars at the time Caesars had very little local presence at that point like they just got mobile betting Like there was nowhere to sign up off the strips of the only local action you got was like Either sharp stuff or maybe you got somebody that worked at the casino next door that would walk in and sign up for an app So they could bet but there was no there really wasn't a lot of local stuff So while everybody else was buried We actually only lost like a really small amount of that at Caesars because We had so much tour stuff and people wanted to come in and bet their teams like all the tourists that were there to visit So they were actually if we actually wanted them quite a bit during that year, but this year Yes spot on Going into the Stanley Cup playoffs. We only lost to two teams and that was one of them Plus and it's not only the futures you lose every night Now you can write a bet like in a market like that if you want to write a betback It's pretty easy to write a betback So if you don't if you get uncomfortable with your wrist position You can always move the number a few pennies and write a limit bet and so Anybody who cries about How much money they lose to the individual games like You're just not doing your job good enough now you can make the decision that sit and say This is all recreational money. I want to gamble to this because it's like your educated decision as a bookmaker that You know, they're betting a market number the number hasn't moved We should book this but again, there's always a wrist number with what you're tolerant of But then you take a look at Circa. I mean Circa sports book is an incredible place in the Circa casino is an incredible place So even though we're losing money in the sports book You know pretty much every night that Vegas played during the playoffs plus You know the futures The sports book is absolutely jam-packed with fans and it's great for business and it's great for the casino And while yes, we lost some money It really wasn't all that bad given the return of You know the casino is full for every single one of these games. All right one last question Jeff We talked about the art of bookmaking and taking bets and moving your positions I saved it for the end because I'm not sure if you'll give me the secret sauce here, but How do you guys set your initial lines? I know with pro-betters. They'll have models and they'll create what they believe is a fair line Do you guys do the same? Do you guys have modelers and create your own line because Circa is off in the first to line line of sport I remember with the XFL you guys were like 15 18 hours before anybody else with a pulse showed up How do you guys set your lines? I think it differs sport by sport like you look at it's clear we're making our own numbers in a college football because we're first to the screen on Sunday mornings at 10 a.m. Every you know every week with sides and totals, so it's clear um The best thing is is I You never really know like one year the first year I was there. I tried to open hockey first and then like Bet online and like I think I want to say like bar stool was like going they started going like two days in advance I'm like well, this is stupid So I stopped doing that and like sometimes like Let's say the hockey I'm choosing what we hang every day and sometimes some places are up sometimes more than others But nobody's gonna know if I'm in the office that day. So like Somebody might hang a number and it might have nothing to do with anything it might just be what they put in so like Is there like a secret sauce? No, it's better. It varies by day. It varies by sport um Sometimes like The hockey's a real grind because it's every single day for you know eight months nine months Some days I'm just You know, I got to do something with my wife and kid. I've taken him to dinner. I'm going out with the innoil whatever it is I don't have time to go through tomorrow's overnight and look and see like okay This teams on the back-to-back this goal is probably gonna play this guy miss last game Sometimes I just don't have time and I'll just be like just hang what you see um Somebody has an opinion throw it in like and then I wake up in the morning. I figure it out and maybe I put the numbers Where I want them maybe they already are where they want them. So there's really no It's different. I mean you people might think it's like oh where the sharpest sports book in the world half the time We're just winging it on the on the openers like we the closures are pretty good. I would think but like The openers don't matter when you're taking three two three times to the openers and 20 30 50 times to the closures the openers. It's just like they matter, but they don't matter Yeah In fact, you don't mind if a sharp better comes in for cheap and gives you some of his information and says Here's what the line should be and you're like thank you price discovery. We'll get to where we need to be for cheap Yeah, and like yeah, you got to be careful like That's when the fakes come a lot of the times because they want you to Especially the fakes come when you're the only person on the screen or like maybe there's only one or two books on the screen because they know Everybody just copies what one person has and that's why like It's why the college baseball is so good because one place that really doesn't know what they're doing will be first and then everyone copies and it's like Like last night's I don't know how much college baseball you follow but last night's college baseball total opener Was in the discussion for worst opener in any sport in any total like outside of maybe the circus sports WMBA Olympic team total I mean and then everyone copies like they've the same two teams face the ninth before and it closed like 9.25 And then last night the two best pitchers in the country were facing each other the win was blowing in and somebody hung 11 and then everyone copied And it's just like if you have a pulse that you can't possibly have hung at any higher than it closed the night before So it closed like eight under which you know made sense, but it's it's It's not just in that sport. It's in any sport It's like somebody hangs a number and then everyone copies and you just a lot of the times You get lucky with a bad number that gets copied What was that game in mexico or The they opened it like 12 or 13 and it ended up closing like 16 17 and still wasn't enough They ended up scoring like 30 combined runs and then the next day is a Audrey's game like a couple of months ago. Yeah, it closed like 20 and it opened like 12 and a half 13 Yeah, it was yeah, yeah, it's insane. Yeah, you just you know Sometimes you hang a bad number nobody's immune. I can't tell you how many times I've hung a hockey number and gone Oh, no, they played this is their third game of four nights and I didn't realize and then you just You throw away a bet because you don't realize and it's like 15 20 cents off No, like it happens all the time Perfect Jeff you've been so gracious with your time. I want to thank you for joining me You're welcome. I'm happy to All right, that's it for me another edition of 90 degrees is in the books I want to thank my guest Jeff Davis assistant sports book manager at circus sports and my producer Jason Cooper Who's like my right-hand man around here? Thanks for listening do me a favor before you go like the content subscribe share and comment We'll be back next week with another guest on the 90 degrees podcast where we give an inside look into the sports betting industry That's it for me. Hope you enjoyed until next time