90 Degrees | Episode #36 The Importance of 4th Quarter W% Over Expected, Betting Awards Markets & Super Bowl Favorites

On today's episode of 90 degrees, we take a look at how to approach betting certain awards markets in the NFL, a metric that provides opportunities betting alternative markets, and who's going to the Super Bowl? That and more on today's episode of 90 degrees. Welcome to the 90 degrees podcast where we take an inside look into the sports betting industry. I'm your host G. Stack George and I'm excited because we're talking my favorite sport today. NFL football. And I've got a very special guest, Cleve TA, plus EV better, creator for the Hammer betting network, and owner of Cleve Analytics.com. Cleve, thanks for joining me. Hey, George, how's it going? I was excited when I finally saw that your preview had come out last week and I got to dive into it. It's always a fascinating read. I always wonder, it's about 50 pages long. How long does it take you from start to finish to get this thing together? It took me a good month or so, and again, this isn't my full-time gig, so I've got a full-time job. I just welcome my second daughter to the world a couple months ago. So it has been pretty hectic and had to work a lot of nights and weekends and my wife was great. Let me do that. But I would have guessed it. It took me over, you know, I would say 100 plus hours at least. Is one of those things where you start working on each team and you get down a rabbit hole and it takes you somewhere else to another team and then I find some information or some stats or something interesting and then I start working on that team and it just, it kind of goes in so many different directions, so it was hard to keep focused, but I really enjoyed doing it and it was a labor of love, but something that I enjoyed putting together. Even the reason I put it together, just for some background, is last year, I had no intention of doing it. I was asked by somebody I knew who works with a really prominent NFL analyst, broadcaster and he was looking for a good NFL preview and asked me if I had heard of any at the time and it was like early June and I said, no, he said, well, why don't you put one together? I said, sure. So I just kind of scrambled and put that together pretty quickly and I got a lot of great feedback, released into the public and, you know, just everybody was asking me about it and thought it was a good resource and so I decided I kind of had to do it again, so that's kind of why I did it and at this point I think I'm kind of stuck doing it every year now, but it does help me at least personally, you know, on top of letting other people have that resource, you know, it's good for me personally and my personal betting. Now you say it took over a month, do you have days where you literally can crank out four or five good hours and knock out like six, seven teams and then days where you're like, I don't even want to write anything. Yeah, honestly, it was to the point where I mean, I could never do four or five, six teams in a day. It was literally one, maybe start a second per day and that's like working four or five hours, you know, like I said, it took me to different directions and it just, it was hard to really sit and just write one full team and get it all done pretty quickly. It was just a lot that I wanted to put in there and, you know, you can see it's, unfortunately, when you print it out, it's like the font is pretty small, it's a lot better when you look online and on your computer and you can increase the size of the font. I just needed, I had to cut stuff down like I would write and I realized, wow, I'm like 200 words over what can fit in here and so I would have to pair it down and so I got rid of a bunch of stuff too, unfortunately, but I just kind of had, I think the, the beauty of it that people really like is just having it in one page, it's not a, I wasn't looking to write a 500 page, you know, encyclopedia, I think they just kind of gets way overdone, it's just not necessary, you're just filling it with stuff. So just having it all concise in one page, I think it was really important. So that was really the reason for that and just, yeah, if I can get two in a day, I was lucky. Yeah, with those longer books, I found myself reading 40% of it just figuring, okay, this is the tidbits that I find valuable, whereas yours was one sheet, one team, a lot, a lot of an easier read, but you don't just cover teams, you also give like a league look perspective from like a bigger picture. One of the things I found interesting because we're anticipating a lot of first year rookie quarterback starting this year, you found out some interesting data about what it looks like with a first year starter. Can you share a little with us? Yeah, so I went back essentially 20 years of data and win totals and just, I just wanted to know for myself because I didn't really put it in context until I went back and looked at it. And I said, you know, let's look at the teams with first round quarterbacks and then specifically top five quarterbacks because all three of them this year are top five in the draft. What did those teams do? How did those quarterbacks perform? And so quarterbacks that started at least half the teams gains as a rookie, there was 41 of them since 02 and aggregate those quarterbacks run just over 41% of their starts and less than 50% went over their win totals. So, you know, against market expectations those quarterbacks typically go under, although when you look at the top five quarterbacks, 55% of those teams actually went over. So you get kind of the really bad teams and drags of the NFL. A lot of times those quarterbacks can push those teams over the win totals. I will say since 2014 though, only four of 11 top five quarterbacks have gone over and we've seen guys like Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson recently really struggle as rookies. So it's a mixed bag. But I mean, I wouldn't expect a lot of great success early on. I was actually stunned to see this one. I mean, two in 2020 is the only top five quarterback to win more than 50% of his starts since Andrew Luck and RG3 did it in 2012. So it's essentially been once in the last 10 years that we've seen a top five quarterback on a team and they won more than half their start. So in general, it's not likely that you're going to see a huge win total in their first year. You know, we have seen, I think of all the types of quarterbacks when you profile. Who's been the most successful amongst the rookies? It's really been the mobile quarterbacks. It's really been the guys who have able to use their legs as kind of giving them an increased floor from an EPA perspective. You look at the top three quarterbacks just in general, not even first round in EPA since 2002 were essentially all mobile quarterbacks, DAC, Russ Wilson, RG3. So that bodes well really a lot for a guy like Anthony Richardson. Not sure about CJ Stroud or Bryce Young just from that perspective, but it's usually the guys that can run who can make plays as your legs, they're the ones who can add value right away because even if they're not good in the pocket and the first reads, not there, they can always just take off with their legs. And I think that's something that definitely mobile quarterbacks have really helped increase some of the returns from these first year guys early on. But it's like I said, it's a mixed bag. I mean, we look at Carolina. They're a win total at seven. It's the highest for any first round or sorry, top five quarterback drafted in terms of a win total since the Jets and Mark Sanchez in 2009. So their expectations are pretty inflated compared to a typical top five team with a quarterback would look like. I will say obviously they traded up. So it's a little bit of a unique situation, but it's still one that people are very high on Carolina and Bryce Young and it's definitely reflected in the win total. I did just a quick Twitter poll today just for fun because I had mentioned that in the last 14 years or so, there's been at least one team with a win total where they're expected to be under 500 and they've made the playoffs and I said, well, which one of these teams this year is it going to be? And almost everybody picked Carolina. It was pretty stunning to see the intrigue and the interest in a team like Carolina with Bryce Young. It just kind of shows you how people just automatically assume that the number one picks are going to exceed expectations and it's not always the case. So, hey, I want to talk about pinnacle. Pinnacle is the world's sharpest sports book and available to betters and Ontario. Find out what professional betters have known for decades. Pinnacle is where the best betters play must be 19 plus an Ontario. Please play responsibly not available in the US now back to the show. Sure. And I've got a lot of thoughts of that division where they're very fortunate for who they're playing not only within the division, but also getting to play the weakest division on the AFC side, the other, the other South division. So it sounds like it's a bit of a mixed bag. You don't read too much into it, but the markets tend to, you know, at least be optimistic about these first year quarterbacks. You had a couple surprise teams in the AFC and the NFC on teams that you think are going to exceed expectations. Let's start off in the AFC. Who's the team that you're backing way ahead of market? Yeah. Well, still there's two different ways to look at this. I mean, I think if you're just looking for kind of super bowl level team that's maybe not expected to make the playoffs, I would say the Browns, just from that perspective, they're 22 to 1 to win the AFC and, you know, that's a team that's got, you know, elite quality players all over the field, added a bunch in the offseason, obviously, that Sean wants some question. But so there are a team that if you're just looking for a non-playoff team, you know, expected to make the playoffs to win the Super Bowl, that would be my top of the list in the AFC. But in general, just above market, I'm really in on the Colts this year. And it's funny because that was not one, that was not a team that I expected to like going into this preview, but the more work I did on them, you know, just evaluating again the background on, you know, the types of teams that are types of quarterbacks that do well, they're rookie year, like I talked about mobile quarterbacks, the head coaches that do well in their first seasons, all those sorts of things, and just kind of what happened last year to the Colts that, you know, kind of it wasn't needed to put in context in order to better understand what this year could be like, I just like them more and more. And it's also a combination of that plus fading a Jags team, which I think is a little bit overrated. You know, I think that they've got a ton of issues, especially on the offensive line. You know, not only you're going to lose Johan Taylor, it came to City, you're right tackle, your left tackle is Cam Robinson, who's going to miss the first four games. You know, their secondary is a mess. They played the easiest set of opposing pass offenses last year. So all those things, I think that you'll see a little bit of regression from Jacksonville and just the rest of the vision is great. But in terms of the Colts themselves, you know, mentioned, even if Anthony Richardson does not show the upside that, you know, he's got kind of under his umbrella, it's one of those things where at minimum, you'll start Gardner Minchue, who's won games in this league. He knows the Shane Steak in offense. You'll have a guy like Richardson in on short yardage situations. You know, he could be pretty deadly with him and Jonathan Taylor in the RPO game. I think he's going to be at worse, a guy that you have a package of plays for in the first half of the season. But then the upside is, you know, he's just all these physical traits that made him, you know, the best quarterback who's ever performed at the combine, you know, they've got that upside there. Otherwise, I think you look, you know, they still have pieces, you know, got Jonathan Taylor, you got, you know, pieces of a good offensive line. The receiving court is okay. You got Michael Pittman, you added Isaiah McKenzie, a receiver that I really liked in the draft, Josh Downes, I did North Carolina, who's got some explosiveness. And then defensively, they were a top 15-ish defense last year. And that was without their best player, Shaq Lenner, their linebacker. He was gone for all but three games. He was hurt. And so, you know, you look, they beat the chiefs last year. They had the eagles on the ropes, the Philly scored at the end to win that game. So they did perform pretty good against good teams. It was a matter of, I mean, Matt Ryan was just a walking turnover. I mean, they led the NFL with amount of EPA lost by turnovers on offense. Five picks, sixes or fumble recoveries for touchdowns, led the NFL. It was just a complete mess and you add the fact that the Jeff Saturday situation, and I just don't know anyone who, that situation is just not going to happen again. So you bring a guy and Shane Stuykin into the fold, comes in for obviously from a good pedigree with the Philadelphia background. He's going to bring, you know, plus EV situational decision making when it comes to four downs and two point conversions, you know, it's going to pass on, pass ahead, you know, to get ahead early in games and then run the ball, hopefully, to paddle lead. Like he knows those things, you know, inside and out from, from his days in Philly. So I think all of that combined, I just think that this is a team that has the ingredients to win, you know, eight, nine games and that can win this division. So for me, it's, you know, they'd have no shot at a wild card, but it would be, you know, to win the division. And so for me, like, I think the Colts have as much upside as any kind of bad team there is in the NFL. All right. I see all those points, the one in the NFC is one that I am in lockstep on because I think I've been tweeting about them for months and I like everything about their situation. Who's your surprise team in the NFC that you're higher on than market? I like the Packers and I think they're kind of a darling of a lot of the sharper community and it's, again, it's, it's kind of betting on that tail, the tail outcomes for Jordan Love. And it's really, look, I mean, Aaron Rodgers was kind of a shell of himself last year. He's 21st in EPA. He wasn't great. He wasn't pushing the ball down the field. And, you know, they still won enough games to compete for the playoffs and we're just under 500. And so you're essentially, if you can get a repeat performance of that, if you're, Jordan Love can, you know, get into the, you know, if he's the 20th best quarterback, you know, they're probably going to win nine games, eight, nine games that face a much easier schedule this year. They actually face, again, this is all, we know that year to year things change dramatically. But just, you know, just because it's interesting to look at, looking at EPA from last year, they will face the, he will face the easiest schedule of opposing past defenses. So, you know, he does get the benefit of facing the Bears toys and the Falcons and a bunch of other teams that, you know, shouldn't be great from a, from a past defense perspective. So hopefully that helps. He gets a full off season with Matt LaFlor. You know, they're going to install, you know, often specifically for him. He's got the pedigrees. He's got the first round pick. This isn't a guy, you know, we'll talk about Atlanta. This isn't Desmond Ritter. It was a third round pick and was passed up by a bunch of teams. Like he was still a first round pick. He's got, he only has a handful of dropbacks in his career, really has one start and that was on a short week when Aaron Rodgers at COVID in Kansas City. He didn't look good. Okay. So, there is a chance he's awful, right? But, you know, there's also a chance that he's just respectable. And I think that would be good enough in this NFC with a great, you know, great running game. He's got a chance of line and we know a top 10 pass defense. All they have to do is shore up the run defense, which was, you know, bottom five the last two years. And I think they're good enough to, at least, you know, get to 10 wins and win this division. So, and you never know what happened. And if he's like, let's say he's actually better than we all think. He's the 10th best or the 12th best quarterback. Then you've got a team that's really live to win the NFC. So, I'm with you. I've got plus 500 to win the North. And, you know, I think there is definitely versions of love and the packers that can get them to an NFC championship game. Yeah. There's a bunch of markets around the packers that I've been interested in. One of them will talk about in a bit. When you talk about markets, you break down like what historically goes into winning the awards, which I found really a very, you know, a good tidbit for people to have. When you were learning about the MVP market, what were like some of the prerequisites of like past winners and what it takes to win the MVP? Yeah. And I've, you know, I've tweeted about this for the last handful of years about, you know, it's, you know, and a lot of people have jumped on board. But, you know, a lot of these awards are pretty robotic when it comes to historical profiles of the types of players that can win. And you know, it's, at this point with MVP, it's definitely going to be a quarterback. It's just, that's 15 to the last 16 MVP's that have been quarterbacks, 10 straight. I mean, Adrian Peterson's the last one, it was a non-cord back in a, you know, passing league. It's just, it's impossible really to even make a claim otherwise. So it's going to be a quarterback in the last 15 seasons that the quarterback has won. Those teams have averaged just over 13 wins per season. None were on a team with less than 11. So, you know, you really, you don't have to just be good. You've got to be, you know, one of the elites of the NFL. So when you're looking at types of teams and quarterbacks that can get there, you know, you have to, you have to think about that. The average preseason win total for these teams has been double digits at 10. So, you know, we have seen some, I will say we've seen some quarterbacks on teams with win totals as low as eight and a half. That's kind of a magic number. Three of the last five years with the March accent, my homes and Aaron Rogers, there's two, those teams were all at eight and a half. So you can find those teams that maybe were a little bit under the radar that had quarterbacks that maybe weren't as proven yet. So, you know, it's, it's pretty easy just to filter out with the lightliest candidates or who they're going to be like Burrow, my homes, Hertz and Allen. You know, I put in the preview and someone I think is worth taking a shot on is Lamar Jackson at 15 to 1 With the Ravens. I think that makes a lot of sense. I like Baltimore a lot this year They've got a high win total. They easily can win 13-14 games With all those new weapons in the top-monger offense and so you know, and he's obviously won it before so he's got the pedigree I think he's definitely in play and but those are really you're not gonna find too many long long shots that are even gonna Have a shot. I mean, I put Derek Carr as a long long shot flyer at 45 to 1 only because the Saints have by far The easiest schedule in the NFL corner mind numbers And he doesn't have to be great for them to win, you know, 12-13 games I know it sounds crazy with the with the Saints team, but you know, it is a good really good defense He's playing with he's got some receivers and he's got a good offensive line It's not inconceivable that they win 13-14 games and in a bad NFC and he puts up good numbers So that's amongst the long long shots. He's the one guy that I would take a look at but in general It's it's usually the the upper quarterback elites I feel like it's becoming unbeatable market for myself like I think the word is out that it's a quarterback And people usually tend to bet the elite ones and they all have like suppressed odds So it's not one of my favorite award markets to buy into one of my favorites though is coach of the year and last year You nailed it. You gave out Brian Dable as coach of the year What's the criteria? Because there's a very specific criteria when it comes to the coach of the year award And a lot of people I feel don't understand that like Bill Balachick's what the greatest coach of our generation or maybe it's Andy Reed and they have what for Coach of the year awards between them between them It they don't hand it out to the best coach of the year oftentimes It's the guy who exceeds the the biggest expectation right Yeah, that's and I was actually having this conversation with someone last week because they liked Mike McCarthy and I was like, you know It sounds great If they almost have to go undefeated to win that because it's not who's the best coach or who's the best team It cuz yeah, then Bellachick would have won it every year It's who has kind of come out of nowhere and who's exceeded the market expectations the most so when he look at the last 14 I mean 14 straight winners of this award have been on a team that has won at least nine games But their average preseason win total is just over seven No winner in the last 15 years came into the season on a team with a win total above nine and a half So if you're expecting to be a double digit playoff caliber team, you're just not gonna win this award So it's really those those guys that are in that kind of you know six to six to nine category Kind of in the in the sweet spot of Of win totals and it's you know about 50 percent almost half of the last 15 winners also have been first year had coaches So again, it's a lot of the kind of what's new what's flashy and we saw it in a brine dayball checked every box going in the last year It's why you know he was on my list at the top But that's that's really what you want to look for and you might find You know certain situations like a a matma floor or You know even a Dennis Allen on on teams that You know just disappointed last year But obviously there's a narrative with a guy like Laflora right without Aaron Rogers You know, there's a possibility that if they win 12 13 games that he's gonna get consideration. So You know there are situations like that But you're looking at guys like Demiko Ryan's Matt Eber Flues Arthur Smith I put Sean Peyton in there Dennis Allen Frank Wright like those are probably at the top and I ended up going with Again back to my colds theme if I'm right on the colds and they can get the nine wins or even 10 and win division I think Shane Stuykin would probably win it pretty easily And he's definitely five to one so it kind of all goes hands and hand and hand there and he's a guy that I think You know can make Anthony Richardson look good and gonna kind of all go together and that that's a guy that I think just for the value Probably has the best out there, but you know, there's plenty of guys at fit, but it don't look to Any of these teams that are expected to do well like that's just not gonna solve your air. So I I often look at like Ron Rivera winning it twice and Matt Nagy winning it once As examples of this is what the award really is versus like Bella chicks two wins They went undefeated and 14 and two like he had to go Off the charts good just for them to consider him for the award. He's not even like a nominee in the final is in the final three Along with your theme when I talked about wanting to bet on Jordan loves like absolute right tail Scenario to me Matt Laflore was the market. I wanted to attack right there's obviously division Which is something I got interested in but I think the narrative will be so strong if with Aaron Rogers gone green bay improves and Jordan love looks really good It's gonna be very hard not to give Matt Laflore serious consideration if he gets the 10 or 11 wins in wins the division Yeah, no, I agree. I think he's deaf and he's I haven't checked In the last couple days, but he was high up on the list, right? I mean, he's like 10 to 1 So there there's a lot of value that's kind of been sucked out of it He was he was he was higher like earlier in the offseason because around the time when I was tweeting about green bay like North of like plus 2800 once upon a time's coach of the year, right? And I'm like all right if I truly believe what I believe with the packers This is a market that makes a ton of sense. Yeah, no, that's a great number And so if they do get to 11 12 wins, he'll definitely have a big case there But I will say You know, I guess it depends on Jordan love like what if what if love is just average But they there's a dominant in the run game the defense cream budget turnovers You know does he get that kind of narrative credit? You know, it might not, you know, it might only be tied to Jordan love because if Jordan love plays really well Then it's like oh the floor of the softness of genius and again a lot of this is just narrative base, right? And that's just how these awards are I mean these are these are voters that are humans and they love narrative You know the stories to get them to these awards. So that would be my only thing is it's almost as more tied to Jordan Love than it is to the team, but yeah, I mean they're they're definitely in play and you can just You know, if you got him over 20 to one, I think it's a great number now if it's 10 to 1 or 11 to 1 You know a lot of the values sucked out of it, but he's clearly I know up there from Coach of the year perspective for sure If you asked me last year it'd be a lot more certain of the answer, but Honestly, I know Brian Dable you got him across the line But I really was surprised that Kyle Shanahan wasn't the Coach of the year considering they got to 13 wins And he did it with like the narrative of three different starting quarterbacks I thought especially the last one being the very last pick in the draft But I guess big New York media Even though they were rejected at seven seven and a half wins. So it wasn't Way over expectation. I guess like the New York media love was really strong with Brian Dable there Yeah, but it's also I mean the average better does or the average voter doesn't look at betting preseason markets I know that's the way we think of it as like here's what expectations are But we don't realize that's the voters not thinking from a betting market perspective exactly They're just looking at what the prior the prior wind total was or what would they have for wins the prior year whatever it was So it was a pretty big jump from there But yeah, and it's just but when I so and I say the preseason win total It's only because that's kind of a proxy for how the general public will look at how these teams should be But in terms of the pure the raw number. It's you know the voters won't look at it that way You know, so um, but yeah, I mean, I think it's interesting And that's my kind of my point all along is you know the Niners were in the NFC title game the year prior So those voters have that in the back of their well, they're just loaded everywhere else So he doesn't really get credit even though it was multiple quarterbacks this team is so loaded They're supposed to do well So in some voters minds they'd rather go with The team that kind of came out of nowhere. So that's why I guy like Dave all would get it in a lot of those cases Hey, the easiest way to improve as a sports better is use multiple sports books and always get the best odds We recommend using an odds comparison tool like bet stamp bet stamp compares odds across every sportsbook for games futures and player props Save time and money by checking bet stamp before you bet download the app today If you're looking to sign up for a new sportsbook account, please check out the offers available at bet stamp dot app forward slash circles off Or hit the link in the description if you sign up through this page it helps support the show Now back to the rest of the episode All right, forgive me if I'm wrong here, but other than like true injury information where you can beat a market before it moves Oftentimes some of our bigger edges in the season come from teams that are way better Then their record says based on their underlying metrics and then oftentimes they're not as good as their As their underlying metrics say Would you think that's an accurate description? Yeah, I mean, I you look at last year jax ago was a perfect case where You know if you find if you see a team that's really getting unlucky early in the season you know That's and the general general market. Maybe it's down on them That's where it's an opportunity to to back them, but you know I think that at this point like people are sharp sharp enough to be aware of you know those certain Those teams that are over you know underperforming or over performing expectations There's a reason why like Dallas was famous remember Dallas was favored in Minnesota That that famous game where Everybody was like you know the general media couldn't believe That the Vikings that were they might have had one loss at the time Were underdogs to a team that you know had multiple losses and it's because again Minnesota was just winning all these close games late. They just were getting lucky From whatever point differential perspective and underlying metrics and the same thing on the other side I mean jaxville was one in six To start the season and You know, they were really struggling from once one-score game perspectives and they turned things around Sorry, there were three in seven And there were one in six and in one-score games But we knew you know if you were paying attention they were they were just on the cusp But they just weren't getting the job done and failing late and then if you back them in the second half of the year You know you were rewarded a lot. So you know, I think that's it's it's definitely A way to take a look. I mean in season a little different. I think from season to season you get a little better Sense of you know these teams that might regress, but in season I think it's at least you know one of the one of the pieces of the puzzle To to trying to find those those teams maybe those diamond in the rough, but it's it's always It's always difficult because you don't know when the turn is gonna come you know Their teams are just unlucky all year long right and our teams like Minnesota that were just Exceeding and winning every close game all year long and it's just hard to know exactly when that The bubble's gonna burst so you just kind of have to ride your way with much as you can For me it was the tight ends like for two years. I'm like Oh, they're just not that good look at their metrics and like Unstable 90% touchdown rate in the red zone. I'm like there's no way they can play at this level and I and like through 10 games I'm like oh my god like I'm just never gonna be right on the tight ends and then eventually the shoe finally dropped on them um I said this asked this question to set up you added something really uh fascinating You it's something called fourth quarter win percentage over expected What exactly is that? Yeah, so it's really just another take on uh, you know point differential and pathagorean win expectation Which again takes takes uh, it's got a formula that's you know pretty pretty well known out there football outsiders uses it a lot That takes into count point differential and kind of where you should be from a win total perspective versus actual wins And whenever you know historically you could have really made a lot of money in in the past Whenever there's a big gap between the expected wins and actual wins You know, you can find really good values from from season to season You know, and so when I was looking at my preview last year and I was digging in and I was using a lot of the Pythag and You know a lot of the close you know one score game, you know metrics There are a lot of times I was looking at some of these games like that really I mean even though it ended as a seven point game that really wasn't a one-score game the true kind of The spirit of why it's you know And necessarily look at those things is if you continually getting lucky and in kind of coin flip situations Or unlucky then you would think that you know that should regress to at least you know close to 50-50 the next season because It's really hard to control that The the bounce of the ball at the end of these games so often And so you know, I was looking with my analyst and I said look I actually think that you know eliminating some of these You know lucky, you know, these uh kind of backdoor situations where teams are scoring late to In the end of two years ago who always scored late and backdoored and made it look like they lost a lot of close games that they weren't in two years ago Right exactly and and also the other way too where team could be up three touchdowns late and they've got essentially a 100% win probability and a team You know you play prevent a team scores two touchdowns late to you know To pad their stats or whatever. It's like that's not really the they were getting blown out like that That's not a seven-point game and you know team that's up three touchdowns and scores two touchdowns late with on a pick six and a you know Special teams, you know fumble recovery or whatever you know, whatever it could be like there's just so many fluky things that happens in the last five minutes They're so of a game so what I wanted to look at all right who were really um that the what were the win probabilities? You know through the kind of halfway point of the fourth quarter That really I think it does a better job of measuring the true kind of essence of the game There weren't any crazy fluky outcomes It was a lot of things you can't control late in these games and there's a lot of um, you know Just when when motivation changes all those sorts of things once you get late in the game I don't look at kind of us uh an earlier look at what the uh win probabilities are so you know My analyst did did some work and he backtested some of this and said you know really The the mode a little bit more predictive measure of next years win totals really is Measuring early kind of the fourth quarter early fourth quarter win probability and so we came up with kind of a blended number In terms of win win probabilities throughout the fourth quarter and you kind of come up with one number That makes sense and that one was the most predictive, you know Going back over 20 years of data and it's just you know It's slightly more predictive than Pythagorean it's not not a ton But just enough to at least examine it and really where we found was Looking at um, not just win totals, but really the alternative markets and to make the playoff markets So really the the find the the biggest outliers both from an uh exceeding expectations and underperforming expectations and Betting those uh kind of alts um, you know picking up an extra win or an extra loss on the downside or from from an all-perspective and getting You know essentially plus 190 uh, you know on those and then to make the playoffs and to miss the playoffs And really kind of getting those tail outcomes that we see every year And if we can find those teams that really underperform or overperform the most, you know, what does that look like and you know It's been pretty successful Going back you know 20 years you're talking about you know 25% ROI on The teams that it's you know we're overperforming so you kind of faded those teams and then you know about a 10% ROI and the teams that we're Underperforming expectations you can find some some good gems and last year we did really well was a first year We kind of rolled this out in the summer and we hit on teams like Seattle on the upside and Minnesota You know, we had the Rams to miss the playoffs and they're under alts like we had a lot of really you know Good hits so you know again It's it's just another it's a different way of looking at things. I personally like to see I think looking at win probabilities is a much better way of you know visioning Um did the team really get lucky here or were they kind of down the entire Game and then just just backdoored it so it's just a bet it's just up for me and a better visually A way of looking at close games and what happens at the end of these games Yeah, I loved it and when you really back tested and showed hey here's how you would have done betting these alternate win totals Like that's one of my favorite parts in the preview Um, okay, let's give people a little taster but not give away the whole recipe can you give us one or two teams that Were much luck the much luckier as far as uh fourth quarter one percentage and two teams that were unlucky Yo, well the luckiest is easy. We've already talked about them in a soda like after it's people are sick of talking about them But I need to go 11 and 0 in you know One-score games is pretty Is definitely unheard of um Yeah, I mean, I just that's my it was mind boggling all season and to happen You know when you look back it's pretty ridiculous Some of the times that they won I mean, they're the only team to win more than one game when they were when they held less than a 10 percent win probability using my Fourth quarter metrics and you know those those are pretty easy to remember That's that Buffalo game with the Justin Jefferson catch and then Josh Allen Fumbling in his own end zone and then it was that Saturday I think it was Saturday Christmas game yeah What's that like inch in didn't have for sure Rolling yeah, that was uh Yeah 3936 and so those are I mean again you looking just looking at we knew that those were big Comebacks, but then when you look at win probability it makes it you know look even more improbable So I mean not only if if you look at point differential too um, you know, they exceeded expectations by four and a half games which is just incredible I mean from either metric whatever you want to use they had the highest Kind of all uh You know exceeding Expectations on the upside the highest rate the NFL has seen in the last 22 years And that's how far back my data goes and I go past Earlier than 2000. It's by far. It's not even close like there's nobody even in the ballpark So and look the markets understand then that's why they're They're winded all those eight and a half after winning 13 games last year And I think the one thing that you know, I try to do is you know me and you understand that But I think that the average Joe maybe does a better lot or doesn't doesn't do this for for living or is it's not It's not something that they really study a lot They'll just look at the win total and say oh how are the Vikings eight and a half that's an easy over And then it's like when you put this in context as to why The win total is where it is and the market already reflects you know a lot of that regression You know, that's that's why I think you know valuable for for people that don't follow this stuff So again me and you know this it's not we're not breaking any any news here But it's just interesting to take a look. I mean when you go back to 2000 There's been 35 teams that had a win kind of a win percentage differential As large as the Vikings And they won just under three games less than next season. So it's not really a shock Only 34% of these teams went over their win total again the market is much smarter now So that's probably factor in in might have might have gone the other way might have gone too far right I was about to say that there's often whenever there's a runaway narrative The pendulum sometimes like Take Cincinnati for example last year The narrative was this wasn't a Super Bowl team the one that went to the Super Bowl They got lucky throughout the playoffs And then I said yeah, I buy that they weren't as good as a team that should have been in the Super Bowl when they played the Rams But I said they actually had a quietly really good off season where you know They're keep adding smart defensive pieces. They were they fixed the O line And you also have to attribute Joe burrow and Jamar chase and all these guys taking a step forward So oftentimes there's a balance of yeah, that once the narrative gets running one way Sometimes you question has it gone just a little bit too far. Yeah, and that's that's where it gets difficult And you know for me I have no plan the Vikings either way I will say You know, they were also very healthy there were the fifth lowest adjusted games lost to injury Cousins Jefferson, Thielin, Delvin, Cook all played 18 games all 18 games. So you know that's zero Yeah, all line two was like to intact the entire season I think well Darry's style is the only one who missed a couple of games and he is their best one So that is that is one guy who you know, they definitely You'll lost that they need it But otherwise all their skill guys were we're healthy all year So you know for me and then you just look at the Vikings in terms of You know, if you're looking at their win total like you know, I talk about it in the in the preview Just look at what Questy the GM who came from Cleveland. So I know him pretty well Just look at some of the moves he's made he they're not trying to win this year. So You know normally I might say all right this this thing is gone kind of it's the pendulum is swung too much on the negative But I don't think they're really trying to compete necessarily this year He's smart enough to know that that was a complete outlier last year And that's not gonna happen again So he didn't he cut a lot of their older guys. Obviously we saw Dalvin cook and Thielin and they traded Zedarius Smith Like they're not really trying to go for it this year, which is smart I mean, it's really refreshing because you never see a GM do that But from a win total perspective It's probably not something that I'm interested in so you know, they're probably the by far the luckiest team I mean, there are some others Well, I would say we got lucky a different aspects. I think of luck is important It's not you don't have to necessarily be lucky in every category But I mean you look at it from a health perspective. I mean the jets Again, doing the preview. I think some of these things come to light which Were things I didn't realize to I dug in you know the entire jets secondary was injury free as good as that defense was last year And Robert Salas defense with sauce gardener etc. DJ read like they didn't miss a single game Their top three corners didn't miss a single game, which is very rare their entire defense was pretty healthy So when you look from year to year to expect that they're just gonna come back the next year and add Aaron Rodgers And they're gonna have the best defense the NFL. It's like well, maybe maybe But how can you possibly expect them to be fully healthy again? And would they have been so dominant on defense if they had kind of a normal injury rate and we don't know so Looking at things like that look at the the Falcons offensive line You know a lot of people are talking about how they're gonna be grinders and and Arthur Smith's offense And they're gonna run the ball down your throat and their offensive line was top five in the lead last year And a lot of the metrics well for their five they're for their five best linemen played all 17 games again The most probably the most physically draining position group in the NFL to get your four best linemen to play all 17 Is this not gonna happen again? So you got a count for that So it's though looking at those kind of specific data points and you know can teams overcome that if they do get the injury bug or You know, you know if I have opposing field goal percentage, you know made against them if a team kind of has a One way or another if it regresses back to the mean is how much does that affect them in close games like those sorts of things I think are pretty valuable from an unlucky standpoint I've got the Titans and it's funny because like you said they were kind of the luckiest teams for a couple years at a row exceeding expectations So maybe this is just completely, you know the pendulum completely swinging and maybe it won't go back the other way next season, but you know They lost five games where they led or the game was tied with less than three minutes remaining They had two games Where they were they had over an 80% win probability Midway through the fourth quarter and lost if remember that opener with the giants that was one of my Biggest bets of the season early on was with that giants team. They scored late Tennessee came all the way down and had a very makeable with 43 yard field goal that Was either blocked or missed so they had a couple of those situations where they held a big win probability and just couldn't hold the lead late Which was very opposite of what they saw in prior years, you know They were the second biggest underachiever from the fourth quarter win probability standpoint over expected You know, they should have won more like nine and a half games than the The seven that they won last year So typically it seems like that that underperformed to that extent Improve their win totals the next season by close to two games So you should see some sort of level of improvement But you know that offense could be so bad that it may not matter They're they only recovered this they recovered the second lowest percentage of fumbles in the league and their opponent made the six Lowest field will percentage against them. So it kind of went both ways And then you know the injury bug hit them especially on defense. You know Yeah, everybody on defense got hurt. They were the they suffer the most Adjusted games lost using the football outsiders metric on defense in the NFL So they were banged up a ton and they were still number one in the NFL against the run So, you know, there are reasons to like them actually going forward But but you know, they were definitely one of the unlucky teams All right, let's look at Let's talk about wide Range of outcomes for teams because you know, we could sit there and and do it one hour podcasts about the chiefs and the bangles And talk about their upside and downside and let's be real There's not much daylight between it whereas I like to talk about the teams where like their season could be really good or really bad And oftentimes if you guess right you can have some big opportunities going against market Let's start off with the Washington commanders Washington was a team that we backed a lot last year This year though, I think their wide range of outcomes is tied to a complete unknown in Sam. How Are you high or low on Washington? I'm lower and it's not necessarily Because I don't think they've got talent on the roster. They definitely have they have a good defense I think it's probably the most underrated defense you know from an EPA perspective. They were You know, they're fifth in the NFL, but They for a while They were kind of middle of pack, but the only reason was because you know, turnovers are so Our factors so highly when it comes to EPA that the first handful of games that I think they created a single turnover for the first like four or five games They did it was maybe one and so their their EPA numbers are actually You know way lower than they should have been But their success rate was top five in the NFL. So I remember they they were going going up against the Bears I think that was a pick-up game and I was on Washington and I didn't understand because I knew that the underlying metrics like their defense a lot more Then you know the EPA and some other things and they're putting their offense in some bad spots So I think from a defensive perspective. They're really good. They get back chase young They are young in the secondary. They added a couple a couple of highly drafted rookies Manual Forbes is going to play corner for them who's you know One of the biggest playmakers from Mississippi state in the draft So you know the upside is there for the defense to continue on being really good I just I'm not a Sam Howell fan. I had them actually in week 18 against Dallas and you know They ended up winning that game pretty easily and you know you hit a couple of big plays, but he didn't really show me much You know Jacobi presets there again. I'm from Cleveland I know how well he played last year, but he needed you know He needed very specific surroundings for him to succeed. He needed very good offensive line a really good run game and enough weapons to To compete and a good offensive coach and you don't really get that in Washington Their offensive line is pretty jumbled up. It wasn't great last year They they lost a couple pieces didn't really add much From that perspective and so I'm not sure the offensive lines there I mean, I don't think Brian Robinson's a really good running back. He was kind of a stuck in mud last year a little bit He's just okay They have really good weapons outside, but you know just if you can't get protected and he can't use the run game In play action, etc. Like he's not a presets really not the guy to to lead that team So I do have questions there their schedules brutal for a team that's not looked to be highly rated So when amongst my lower power rated teams they have the toughest schedule them and the Raiders in the NFL They're the only ones who have one of the top 10 toughest schedules amongst the bad teams. So they got Some some unfair breaks there. So I just I can never back a team that I just don't have faith with the quarterback And I have so many holes along the offensive line So I'm more on the negative. I look if they won eight games nine games it wouldn't shock me But this is not a team that I'm you know just dying to batch because there's just too many holes there and I just think that the schedule is just way way too hard All right, you alluded to the Jets and there's a Of people there's a group of people who say you know what this team is super well ready We've we've seen me hold a veteran quarterback comes into a ready-made situation a few years ago with Tampa Bay And Tom Brady the Rams a couple years ago with Stafford and then last year Russell Wilson with Denver When you look at Aaron Rogers on the Jets are you higher Are you as high as the rest of the market in thinking that they could be Super Bowl contenders? Are you lower or are you in weight and C mode? Yeah, I'm right. I'm in kind of the neutral spot I think that the number nine and a half is perfect for them. I think they're right in that range But I do think that there are cases to be made that if things fall you know the right way if everybody if everybody's best case in the league occurred They would be one of the top contenders for the Super Bowl no doubt about it So you know if Aaron Rogers if last year was just an anomaly that you know his receivers dropped too many balls That is I mean his PFF grade compared to his EPA was a lot better And that he had one of the highest drop rates in the NFL amongst his receivers And he didn't have many good receivers there if if it's you know, simple as that He becomes you know another He's back to being a top 10 quarterback And the defense again stays healthy and they don't suffer the the typical kind of volatile Year-to-year change we see with a lot of these good defenses Then there's plenty of reasons to like them. I mean, I will say on defense, you know, they did not force It's one thing when you you really rank highly because you Force ton of turnovers high-level situations. They didn't really do that like they were good without Creating impactful turnovers, which I think is very it boasts very well for them So yeah, there's clearly reasons to like them. It's always difficult. You find these these you know High highly touted quarterbacks that switch teams, you know, Tom Brady's really the only one recently that It's really worked. I mean Russell Wilson. We saw it didn't work Matt Ryan he might have been just a couple of you wash, but that didn't work Stafford as well, but it's true Oddly enough the Rams and Tampa didn't enter the playoffs as like no top three seeds and look like I think Tampa was a wildcard team And the Rams were the fourth place division winner and and It didn't matter in the end they they they ended up building enough momentum in like a three game sample size when it mattered most in the playoffs I will say the other problem too is they start off their schedules brutal right off the bat You know get yeah, I mean look at Tom Brady when he that rookie that first season with with Tampa First few games. He was awful people were talking about. Oh, I mean he's washed. He's done He need a bellicic, right? And then they started bigger things out towards the halfway towards the season They're by week and they really started to explode and you know, it's gonna be it could be a similar case like that So you might get to me the best way to play the jets is You know you get me look up you get Buffalo you get Dallas, New England, Kansas City Denver and Philly the start just an absolutely Uh an absolute gauntlet to start the season Yeah, you know if they go three and three in the first six games They're they have a real shot and so maybe it's worth just waiting out the first month of the year See where they stand because the odds of them being five and one or something or six and dollars is really low So if you can maybe get a better price on them I think that's where you'd want to look is let's wait a few games Let's assume that they're going to essentially go 500 early on and then you know, that's where you pound And you maybe get a little bit more value And you just you just risk you know that the jets are not going to come out that hot and you know Just blow everybody away right away. So that that's the way I would play but I I clearly think that there's Ways for the jets to exceed expectations and and to make it to the Super Bowl It's not it's definitely not impossible All right, let's talk about this team because it feels like everywhere I look all the smart guys are bear are bullish on them and they You know for a friend sharp Clark is was talking about the Falcons for the division and then I heard Rapazola and summa and Eric Eger and Steve Fesick everybody's talking about love for the Falcons and you know the Will Smith meme Where in Fresh Prince of Bel Air when he's in the empty living room and he's wondering if he's alone with with his With with himself and I'm like I'm not I'm not buying this Falcons team And I was wondering if I would have an ally and then I finally saw your preview and I said I've got an ally Here's somebody else who also doesn't believe in all the steam on the Falcons What's the reason that's holding you back Well, look, I think I projected them to win eight games or so. So I'm right on the market. It's not like You know, I think they're gonna win five games or anything like that But I just so let's step back And you know, why do people like them? Because you can poke holes through all of these narratives and obviously you can go the other way But you know for my agency Yeah, the first thing is is scheduled a division right? Yeah, the division's not great I clearly think the saints are much better, but okay They say oh well, they're gonna face look at all these easy these bad quarterbacks they face Well, then I'll say well look at your quarterback. They're all saying the same thing about Desmond Ritter Who was like 40th in EPA last year? Like he wasn't good He faced all backups literally every quarterback he faced was a backup Tyler Huntley and Andy Dalton David Blau He faced Kyle Trask and Blaine Gabbert in the finale against a Tampa team that sat everybody in the second half because it was a meaningless game for them Face Arizona who was essentially their only plane because it's JJ Watts farewell like they nobody Baltimore at Tyler Huntley like it was And he faced the easiest set of I guess Besides the Ravens defense like it was as easy as you can get for a situation to come in late So like I won't say if you look at a schedule like where is Desmond Ritter head and shoulders above any of the other starting quarterbacks are facing Like the only ones that I would say all right, you I'll take Ritter over this guy um Would probably be Sam Howell now, but if Jacobi percent starting I probably take percent and the only other one would be Baker Mayfield and even then that's that's a debate Baker mayfield's actually one games in the NFL So from that perspective, I don't buy it that just because they face an easy set of a quarterbacks Well, your quarterbacks things too and then the other you know what people will say is oh look at the they were in all these games last year They weren't expected to I think they went what five and nine or five and eight in quote-unquote one-score game games Which I think is you know complete nonsense if you actually dig in again That's where the win probability stuff comes into play because there's a handful of games And I remember because I bet them all um where you know They were getting blown out early in the fourth quarter and then all of a sudden they get a couple of fluke plays late And the game ends up as a one-score game They were not in most of those games against the Rams. They were down the 21-3 at halftime Against Tampa. It was like 21-nothing until they scored a couple late touchdowns Like a lot of these games that they were never really in that they get credit for So I don't really buy that there's any sort of regression from that standpoint. They were exactly where they should have been And then you look at you know, this is a run first offense They're gonna just you know Arthur Smith and his his offensive line is this gonna with Bijan Robinson They're gonna run right through these teams and it's like well since when is running the football a good thing as your number one Key to success on offense. I I don't know why all of a sudden people are just turning their Um, you know deciding to to go back on passing the football on a sudden running the football such a great thing Yeah, that's a good idea if you can stay in these games because if you're down early You can't use the run to come back So it's only in games where they get a lead where the run games really going to be sustainable I mean Tyler Elgear Was one of the top 10 running backs in NFL last year by every metric So as good as Bijan and Cordell Patterson ran for over five yards per carry like even if Bijan Robinson is really good How much better can he be than those guys? I don't think it's really that additive Uh, it felt redundant actually let them to add Bijan Robinson considering they had a lot of big holes everywhere else Yeah, and then you again the offensive line great. They were awesome last year For like I said four of the five linemen their best ones played all 17 games That's probably not going to happen again And they're probably not going to play at that same exact level again So you know automatically going to see a little bit of a drop off and then the defensively They were the worst past defense in the NFL based on my metrics when you adjust for for opponent Which they faced literally the highest percentage of Cubes that were either backups or ranked 30th or worse in EPA like they were really bad So they raised a really easy schedule. You're going to face an easy one again But it may not be anywhere near you know as bad as that one And all these free agent additions like let's go through them jesse bates really good safety Safety doesn't move the needle like there's no if if jesse bates plays or gets hurt Like that the point spreads not going to move at all It's it's you know, it's a nice player to have but that really isn't going to to solve the the issues in the secondary They added Jeffrey Okuda and Mike Hughes to be your number two endorse yeah Yeah, nothing spectacular there. Yeah, and then defensively the bud or on the past rush bud Dupree But Dupree has been washed for three years. He was a mediocre past rusher in Tennessee With the best maybe the best defense of front outside of Philly That he had in Tennessee and he can only muster what six acts and Kind of league average or below average pressure rates like he's not gonna He's not gonna all of a sudden come into Atlanta and be some superstar So like and they've got you know couple other nice players Kate and Alice David on Yamada I mean Kalea's Campbell's gonna be 37 years old. He can't play a full op in a snap So the defense will be improved, but like how much better can that defense be? I'm not really sure so long story short Yeah, are there scenarios where this team can win 10 games where you know, Desmond Ritter improves is maybe a lead You know the 20th ranked quarterback sure there's absolutely scenarios, but uh that where that can happen But why is it automatic like what's the upside? He's a third around pick He was awful last year in limited duty against bad competition Um like where is where is this pedigree coming from that all sudden we're supposed to give him the benefit of the doubt that he's got the the possibility of being a top You know a top half of the NFL quarterback. I'm not sure Where that's kind of automatic and and way more downward scenarios here Um, then there are upwards and I just don't think I'm I don't agree with backing A team with a quarterback who just to me has very little shot of being um, you know above average. So Like anyway, I just I'm always wary of these teams that get all the pub in the offseason That surprised the prior year. I just you can't just use schedule Um to to to be a reason why and that be the only reason why you know, you're gonna win the division or you know in the NFC But that's just me. I also don't like the fact that when people talk about their offensive weapons like Drake London and Kyle pits and then The three running backs. I'm like that's not a dangerous defense to defend offense to defend against because there's no like There's no threat of a deepball at all and if if teams can crouch down and play you in a box It isn't that's not exactly a dangerous team that you've got to worry about on offense You pointed to all their defensive metrics like there are 30th and defensive DVOA last year I don't see a big improvement from that standpoint. So again, like I'm not I'm not I have the fucking says like my 25th power rated team that's gonna get to about seven and a half eight wins just because Of this schedule, but I'm not I don't think I'm buying the The absolute tail outcome for them and what about the fact that okay Drake London. Yeah good prospect Who's behind him they've got Mac Collins and Scotty Miller as their number two and three receivers So one injury or you know a poor season out of out of London and you've got nothing behind him. So again, it's it's a very flimsy roster and I think that you know spending a lot in free agency has never been you know really the You know you don't necessarily see all the fruits of those labors You know in year one, but I don't know. I think that This is they're just getting a little bit too much hype for me and I just just give me a little better quarterback If you had Derek Carr there, I'd feel a lot better honestly You know that I just doesn't read or just didn't do it for me last year. He dropped in the draft He was picked behind a lot of bad quarterbacks I mean, this is the one of the worst quarterback drafts that we've seen and he went in the third round He didn't do anything last year's show and he showed me that he deserves the respect to be to be bet on to win the division Like that's just crazy to me You know, there's nothing a lead about the rest of this roster at least offensively That I would say I like he's gonna have a great run game a great defense So he just needs to not make mistakes. There's just nothing about that defense that would ever get me there So I don't know how you can back a guy who You know hasn't proven anything and and doesn't have again doesn't have the pedigree So isn't Jordan love was a first round pick who's played way less snaps and then does me ridder This is a guy who's a third round pick and was and struggle last year and in kind of a the easiest final four games You can have so yeah Account me as as someone who's not high on the Falcons, although I'm not gonna fade them All right One more team and then we'll get into your Super Bowl pick Uh, this team has gotten some love in the offseason. It's the Chicago Bears Um, what are you looking at when you look at the Bears in their wide range of outcomes? Yeah, I'm again. I'm an Ohio State guy. So, uh, you know, I trust me I want Justin Fields to be really good. I just I don't think that he's a pocket quarterback He's even when guys are open. There's plenty of data out there that says even when guys are open. He's not hitting them Um, he's not accurate and he holds on to the ball a lot I just look he was awesome. He was electric last year. I bet on uh, there are overs a lot at the end of the year They were really they're really um, you know, fun to watch But it's just not sustainable. I mean the amount of uh, pounding he's gonna take we already saw you got hurt last year I just he's not Lamar Jackson. We're Lamar like sidesteps and runs out of balance Justin Fields will take you on and that is and he's not that big of a guy. He's not Cam Newton So I just I think that's just so risky the second that he gets hurt This team is a complete they're the worst team in the NFL Potentially so you know, I just it's hard for me to really love them You know to win a bunch of games. Yeah, they're from a regression standpoint that they were unlucky and a lot of metrics You know, they did face You know, one of the tougher schedules in the NFL There were one in seven in one score games. You know, they got unlucky late So you know for just that alone. It's already factored in the the win told. I mean seven and a half from where they were last year It's a four and a half win jump Year of year and you know, I looked at that They're one of six teams Since 2000 with it with a win total jump of at least four and a half wins from the prior year Obviously, I'm only looking at you know, if you got at least win three games I'm not looking at the teams that went over because that's automatic The over is hit in two of those cases, but most of those Big gaps and win totals was because you know, a star quarterback went down and the season was was lost for that team So it was just a matter of getting that quarterback back It was it is a very rare case of a team getting so much love and inflation in the marketplace And they didn't spend wisely on defense first of all This is the Now and defensively once they traded well quantum Smith This was the worst def this might have been the worst defense The NFL is seen in a long time like they were not last in EPA. They were like they left the field An EPA in the second half of the season. It was just atrocious and they didn't really do anything in the secondary It's very young secondary Um, you know guys like you know Jalen Johnson's fine, but Tyrick Stevenson the rookie out of Miami Is starting got Kyler Gordon another young guy they've a ton of young players in the secondary didn't play well last year They added their past rush was a mess after they traded well quantum Smith and Robert Quinn and they didn't add anything to it They added to Marcus Walker was the best guy that they added they'd spent all their money on linebackers TJ Edwards is a fine player that actually was a good contract. I mean signing Tremaine Edwin Edmonds for as much money as they did just didn't make any sense to me when they had such a need at past rush So I just didn't think they used they allocated their capital well their front seven is still you know very poor And I just you can't to me. I would not back a team with the defense. It's probably bottom five again. It's just I miss your quarterback spadrick my homes I'm not taking you to go 500 if you know, you've got one of the worst defenses in the NFL So I don't know. I don't yeah, there'll be the the win some games the win some games they showed in and I think this line is reflecting that you know that this is probably They're probably in that range of six seven wins You know, maybe they get to eight if they're lucky, but They're not they're not a team that I'm really considering to be a sleeper playoff team No, I was talking with Tase Seth about the bears and I said like spending 18 million dollars on Tremaine Edmonds when every other good linebacker in the freed and she went for five to six million Is ridiculous like triple the next range of guys Don't go out and spend big money on a past rusher. I didn't love their draft like I wasn't a fan of either of the defensive tackles that they took and Honestly, I was a little offended that the bears had a lower odds To win the division than the packers like to me. There was a clear disconnect in the bears were the team That was being steamed early and I'm like I think you guys are missing the mark here, man. I get it There's a young flashy quarterback, but The defense was atrocious like you could almost blindly bet their overs towards the end of the season Because the games were going to be shootouts everything was going to be in the thirties Yeah, I mean, so I will say the reason that they I know why they spent the money on Tremaine Edmonds is because You know, you look at Maddie refluse at Indianapolis. He had Shaq Leonard like he needs that that Limebacker to kind of control the defense. He loves linebackers in his scheme But still it's just it's a waste of money in my opinion I knew they had money to spend, but it just they didn't need to do that And so when you even look again part of my preview one thing I started I wanted to depict it with these one These single page previews is you see the bottom left hand side I looked at kind of you can talk about you know, what's your overall EPA offense defense But I want to know on a game-to-game basis how consistently were you You know Holding your opponents for example to an EPA below their their season average and you can see I've got kind of a bar chart with a line You can see what the opponents were expected to produce and how much they actually did produce and you see a lot of negatives From the defensive side on kind of a negative performance week to week starting in week eight like they didn't hold any offense Below their expected EPA I think except for one time in week 15 so but that's just another way to take a look at that But you know the consistency level was just so poor. They just got they got thrashed by everybody And so you know that I don't know if it's gonna be that much better this year All right, I said we'll talk about your Super Bowl pick Who do you like coming out of the AFC and who do you like coming out of the NFC So I copped out and I took the the chiefs again But how am I gonna how am I gonna fade a team that or Patrick Mahon just made the AFC title game at every single one of his seasons Who's gonna fade that like I just I could have gone with Baltimore I think that they I had them. I think as a number one seed I really think they're gonna they're gonna do well I think Lamar's gonna really shine in that Todd Monk in system I think those added weapons will be will be positive They're a team that underperformed even though they won 10 games last year, which was a rarity They're a team that blew a lot of leads. It could have been a lot better And obviously if he stays healthy the good you know, they're gonna be really good this year I just went with old reliable so I'll go with the chiefs and I and I have Dallas in the NFC Which it maybe is a little more controversial. I'm not sure But I just think they're really really well-rounded Um, I love the pickups of Brandon cooks and Stefan Gilmore on each side of the ball like those were Like they already had top 10 level offense and defense and those are just like cherry on top because it's exactly what they needed on each side of the ball Uh, they needed a down the field threat that they weren't getting really with with anybody else on the roster And Michael Gallup wasn't doing it. So Brandon cooks was perfect on the outside for them Um, yeah, you know, you know, cd cd lambs gonna move all over the field He can be used as a chess piece in the slot, etc Um, can it really create some tough mismatches and then defensively Gilmore was still really good This is back-to-back years. He was a top 20 graded cornerback by pff And he's you know him and digs is a really nice combo there Uh, so I think it fits perfectly for you know, what they need on each side of the ball And otherwise they're a really complete team I mean, I mean, you can see a lot more Explosiveness with with more carries and more touches from Tony Pollard versus what we saw with Zeke You know holding him back last year. You're not gonna have that elbow trust there So I think that's additive. I mean the one area concerned the only area concerned. I have with them is The coaching staff. I mean, I think it's just I'm not a huge Mike McCarthy fan Um, and I mean Brian shot in Heimer. I could not believe that's who they they decided to replace Kellen Moore You know, I just I don't understand that one but You know, and maybe it's just gonna be really McCarthy running running the show and in shot in Heimer's just just the figurehead, right So I feel a little bit better about that But that's the one area that's a little bit scary for me They just have so much talent that I'm just kind of betting on the talent more than Then the coaching and then defensively they were really good Dan Quinn's back Did a really good job last year. I have no qualms about that defense the only time last year that they struggled There's a late stretch about a four-week stretch where they struggled towards the end of the year Defending the past and that was really when Anthony Brown went down. He was a dumb to corner They had nobody else to really replace them. So now with Gilmore in there. I mean you got our really it's a big upgrade From a value perspective and so as again as long as they are You know, they don't get too banged up I think that's just a quality quality defense and offense got Michael Parsons wrecking havoc like there's no weakness Find me the weakness on this on both sides of the ball. It's very very tough So I'm just going with the team that I think Is the most talented and you know, I think Philly as good as they they've been you know, they face such a cake schedule last year And obviously we saw in this and if you title game you get Essentially not playing against a quarterback like they had every break in the book as much as I love them You know, there is that disease of me out there. It happens a lot even to the best of them So I still think they make the playoffs. I just don't think they're gonna get to the Super Bowl again And I think Dallas is just a better overall team this year Yeah, I was talking to Rob Pizzola. I'm like Dallas I thought their offseason was very surgical They didn't build in a million things. They just said we want to impact players and they go in to get cooks and go more At two positions where they need a depth The Kansas City thing you said like you know, it's hard to go against Patrick Mahomes I have had a 20 year beef with Tom Brady fans because I am adamant to this day that at his peak Peyton Manning was a far better quarterback Than Tom Brady and I believe also Aaron Rogers Just just from a thrower of the ball perspective because he breaks every chart I said Tom Brady's greatness though comes from what he did post age 37 in his longevity And obviously you can't take away his accolades. So that's what makes him the greatest So I'm fighting back Cleveland after after conceding that Tom Brady was the goat I now troll everybody and restart the argument and my line is always Patrick Mahomes is everything you guys have pretended Tom Brady is Because he's got the Peyton Manning. I'm going to win five MVPs and be the best player Of my generation, but he's also racking up accolades at the rate that Tom Brady did and Patrick Mahomes is my revenge tour on everybody who I had the Peyton Manning and Tom Brady argument with and had to concede I cannot wait for the day that Patrick Mahomes has surpassed Tom in in front of everybody's minds I mean, it's just incredible and you see these articles are I mean, I think PFF had I know what was it that Brady wasn't or Mahomes He wasn't like top five in certain graded throws or something. It was just something ridiculous Like it's like every people are just dying to unsee them and I get it like this Just people get sick of of dominance But he is by far the best quarterback in the NFL and could end up being the best of all time And I mean look, if you weren't going to get him last year like when are you going to get him they had a completely revamped My receiving court They had he got hurt in the playoffs The walk is really even able to walk and he still wins a Super Bowl Like what else I mean if he's if you're not going to fade him then and he's not going to drop then When is that going to happen? So I'm not going to be the one to do that So I'm just going to write him as long as I can like I said I mean Baltimore would be a team that I really like As another option But I'm just going to go with go with the chiefs and again your bangles Which you've done a nice job backing them the last couple of years You know look they've they've you know They've avoided the injury bug until the pro season right like they got hit with offensive line bug and you know In fact of them late, but in general they've been fairly healthy and but they they are almost blow out proof I mean that I have the stat in there. I don't think they've lost by more than a fuel goal with Jamar chasing a lineup Since like five games into his rookie season. It's been some insane number Of consecutive games that they just when they lose and he's in the lineup It's you know, they barely lose and otherwise they win. So you know, they're going to be right there, but I just I don't It's hard. I think they lost enough talent defensively I think that you know, we don't know what's going to happen with mixin and You know there's you T Higgins is going to want some money soon like we're starting to there could be a couple cracks there I'm not I'm not going to take them. They're the most popular pick to go to the Super Bowl And I'm just not there right now, but in the division stuff too So I I've gotten flak for saying I think every team is a top 12 power rated team in the division And I loved it because you went out and made every team with a winning record in that division I'm like all right I'm not alone in this understanding that everyone's good But no the Cleveland's a team I want to buy the absolute right tail if Dishon Watson looks anything like he did in Houston top five receiver And Cleveland finally fixed the D line after what seems like five years since Miles Garrett got there They're finally well-rounded multiple past rushers Fixed the interior D line and as long as like the top six linebackers don't get hurt again this year I like Cleveland events a lot this year Yeah, and that's and you had the Jim Schwartz factor is they they have not had a consistent past rush out opposite miles Garrett I mean cloud. He's been okay at times, but you know He's in and I'll line up. He doesn't even want to play half the time to get not just to do is Smith But open what wrong quote from from Houston love no one yet and only nerds like us and pf Follow and realize that guy has been he's exceeded expectations last couple of years I mean his pressure rate is is one amongst the the better ones in the league. They have three top 20 pressure rate Edge rushers You know in the lineup, which is I don't know if anybody else can can say that They've never had that they they Signed Delvin Thomelson To help shore off the middle middle the run defense one Thornhill and Rodney McLeod two good safeties They signed they've got three good cornerbacks like they've got everything you need Jim Schwartz is proven to always put quality Defenses out there is an attacking style like this is a really good roster offensively you got a top 10 offensive line You got potentially top 10 quarterback maybe the best running back in the NFL like This is it like this is the prove it you're Kevin Safansky will not make it past this year if they don't you know At least win nine or ten games in my opinion because the talent's too good So yeah, I agree with you from a non the teams that are not favored to make the playoffs there by far in my opinion The best kind of longer shot to get there. So we'll see I'm a Cleveland fan and we always get disappointed. So I'm just bracing for that, but the I agree with you All right, I want to I want to thank you cleave TA you've been so generous with your time man No, I appreciate it, you know, I'd love to come on another time. So thanks and appreciate all your hard work here Where can people get the preview where where can they find it? Yeah, well you can either go on my twitter Profile at cleave TA or just go to cleaveanalytics.com and there's a NFL preview tab there So in the NFL content page. So yeah, I said it's free. Hopefully people enjoy it and You know, you get some sort of nugget out of it and If not then at least there's some pretty colors on the on the page, but I hope I hope everyone gets something out of it perfect What we're going to link that into the description on the youtube page That was cleave T cleave TA plus CV better creator for the hammer betting network and owner of cleaveanalytics.com I'm g stack George and this was 90 degrees That's it for me another edition of 90 degrees is in the books I want to thank my guest cleave TA plus CV better creator for the hammer betting network and owner of cleave analytics I also want to thank the sponsors of this show pinnacle and bet stamp and my producer Jason Cooper Thanks for listening do me a favor before you go like the content subscribe share and comment And I want you to do me one extra favor check out our forward progress youtube channel We're doing a fantastic job for breaking down previews of every team and every division and what to look forward to going into the season Anyways, we'll be back next week with another guest on the 90 degrees podcast where we give an insight look into the sports betting industry that's it for me hope you enjoyed until next time