Hey, na, wie geht's dir?
Rät so, ich hab schon wieder Urlaub.
Oh nein, wie lang denn?
Zwei Wochen.
Komm, ey, das geht schneller vorbei als du denkst.
Ja, hoffentlich.
Du willst auch ein Job, den du liebst, dann kommt zur Lufthansa-Grupe.
Über 50 Ausbildungsberufe von IT über Technik bis zum Cockpit.
Fly Big auf Lufthansa-Grupe und Curious.
On this week's episode of Circles Off, it's a jam-packed episode.
Wir talken über die größte Misconceptions in Sport-Betting.
Wir haben einen New-Segment, Plus-EV, Minus-EV und Stay-Tune,
bis zum nächsten Show.
Die große Announcement hier, auf der Circles Off-Channel,
und du willst nicht mehr einen Miss-It-State-Tune.
Circles Off starts now.
Komm, let's go!
Welcome to Circles Off, episode number 106,
hier, part of the Hammer-Betting Network.
Ich bin Rob Azola, joined by Johnny from Betstaff.
Rob.
Number 6.
Who do we have?
Shay Weber.
There's a big LeBron.
LeBron is currently wearing number 6.
I'm pretty sure.
Like I...
Such a loser.
Yeah, I think he wore it with Miami,
but I'm pretty sure he wore 6 this year.
Did he?
Yeah, no.
He swapped back from 23 to 6.
Yeah.
Yeah, he wore 6.
He wore 6.
6 to me, like obviously I'm a huge NFL fan,
but what resonates to me is like,
if you wear 6 as a quarterback,
you're destined to fail.
6.
Nice example.
Jay Cutler.
Oh, he wasn't bad.
Okay, he had a long career, but he sucked.
Like, Jay Cutler,
I don't know if this is a fact or not,
I want to spew fake facts again,
like I did a few weeks ago,
but I'm pretty sure Jay Cutler,
over like,
of quarterbacks that have started like 50 games
or more in the NFL,
has by far the worst against the spread record.
Like, consistently underperformed market expectations,
more than any player,
any quarterback in the history of the NFL.
You got to fact check that one.
I'm almost certain Jay Cutler,
like horrible,
and I know from experience,
by the way, betting on Jay Cutler.
This is part of the reason why.
But in and around that same era,
Mark Sanchez,
War No. 6,
Baker Mayfield,
where is No. 6 now?
You wear No. 6 and get drafted high.
Okay, Cutler was way better than Mark Sanchez.
Completely agree with that.
Completely agree.
But Cutler,
like,
a massive contract sign,
where it was like,
every team wanted him.
Yes.
Or that, that,
like,
I'm pretty sure the Bears traded a shit ton to get him.
The thing with Cutler is that,
like,
he just looked like he never gave a shit.
He didn't.
Yeah, absolutely did not.
He literally did not give.
Like, some quarterbacks
throw a pick,
and you could see like,
they're angry with themselves
or whatever.
Cutler just like,
walked off the,
you wouldn't even have known something,
something bad happened in his life right there.
I know.
All right, so fine.
And do you know,
do you know who has the best?
ATS record?
Tom Brady.
Mahomes.
Teddy Bridgewater.
Oh, yeah.
Teddy Bridgewater.
42 and 20.
Yeah.
Teddy Bridgewater.
42 and 20 ATS.
I should have known that.
What's Mahomes?
33, 25 and 2.
Number two on this list here is Josh Allen.
And then number three is Tom Brady.
165, 108 and 9.
Brady,
I just thought Brady wouldn't be up there
because like,
the sheer number of games
it would be higher to get a top percentage.
No, I say this all the time,
when I'm doing forward progress,
during football season,
and talking about it,
anytime like the Patriots
or Brady comes up,
if I had just not
bet Tom Brady games
in my life,
like I don't actually
even want to think
about the monetary amount
that I've lost
betting against Tom Brady.
Yeah.
That they used to say.
They were like,
oh, you don't get rich,
betting against Brady and Belich.
You see, like,
you think just how
a lot of people
are conditioned to sports bet.
And I'm not saying
I do this, right?
But a lot of people are conditioned
to like,
be contrarian, right?
And oftentimes,
I do think that there is
something to this
in the NFL,
but like,
once a player gets
a little bit too much hype,
you know,
they're typically what happens
is like,
you want to,
I don't want to say you
necessary,
like this is not blind
or anything like that.
But everyone knew
how good the Patriots were
for so many years
with Brady, right?
And it wasn't just me,
like, the market
used to move against them
on game day,
like, every game.
And they would just
keep winning
and covering.
And there was, like,
something that was not
captured,
like, from a statistical
profile,
there was something
with that team
that we weren't capturing.
Like, I can't explain it.
But they just figured out,
like,
they always figured
out a way to cover.
They knew it will win.
Even when it was,
it looked like
they had no hope
of covering a game.
They would cover
a game.
They would cover
the games.
It was, uh,
highly depressing.
So, for today,
I know we have, uh,
a really cool episode.
We're obviously
going to kick it off.
What are we doing today?
I do.
So, oftentimes,
people reach out to us,
we get this,
circlesoff at betstand.app,
if you want to reach out
to us,
you can DM us on Twitter,
at circlesoff HQ,
you can DM me on Twitter
at Ropizola.
We get a lot of DMs
that are just, like,
oh, can you touch
on this topic?
Can you do this?
Can you touch on this?
And yes, we can.
But a lot of my responses
are like, we can't,
we can't do a,
a 45-minute episode
on this one topic.
This needs two minutes,
right?
And what we wanted to do
was revisit
one of the earliest
episodes of circlesoff
we had,
which was episode
number eight
of circlesoff,
where the latter half
of the episode
we talked about sports
betting myths.
And I haven't gone back
and listened to that episode.
It was literally
two years ago.
But what we do want to do
is go over some
sports betting misconceptions
in the space,
and put together a segment
that people can refer
back to all the time.
This isn't going to
resonate with everyone.
Some people out there
are super sharp
betters, and this is
not going to be new
information to them.
But there's a lot of people
who also want to get
their friends involved
in betting,
or frustrated,
when they have conversations
with their friends,
trying to explain things to them,
about the betting space.
This will serve
as a great segment
to send over,
to your buddies,
your family,
whoever you want to,
to say,
hey, hey.
Watch this for half an hour.
Listen to what these guys
are saying.
It's not just me.
There's other
betters out there
that are telling you the same thing.
So we're going to talk
a little bit about sports betting
misconceptions.
We're going to go back
and forth here.
But before we do,
I will remind you
that none of this is possible
without pinnacle sportsbook,
which is available
to betters in Ontario.
Find out what pro
betters have known for decades.
Pinnacle is where
the best betters play.
Please play responsibly.
You must be a 19-plus
excuse me in Ontario
and not available in the US.
And for those who know
and watch regularly,
we preach line-shopping
all the time.
It's extremely important,
very easy way
to win more
or lose less.
And you can do that
at pinnacle
with the low margins
that they have.
So solid sportsbook,
check them out.
But let's get into it.
Sports betting
misconceptions.
We'll kick it off
with you, Johnny.
So I'll start it off.
I think we're each
going to do four
that we handpicked here.
So if you
hear, if you already know
the stuff,
sorry.
If you don't,
I'm incredible.
If you have any questions
on anything that
Robert, I touch upon,
has Rob said,
send us a message.
But the main thing we want
to do here is send this
to your buddies
that you might hear say
these misconceptions.
And then hopefully we can,
you know,
change some opinions here
and everyone could win
a little bit more.
So number one.
Successful betters
always win at
55%.
Or more.
Right?
So this is for anyone
who says kind of things
like, oh, in order to be
professional,
even the best of betters,
they hit 60%.
They hit 55%.
They hit 54%.
If you're just even
a little bit good,
you can win money
in sports betting.
So anyone who says that,
or some variation of that,
here is how, you know,
this is the real scoop,
is how it works.
So,
Rob and I,
anyone who bets,
they will know that
the win rate
is not an important metric.
You hit at 60%,
80%, 20%,
it's actually completely
irrelevant without
other information.
The other information
that you actually need
is what odds you are betting at.
So,
some bets I place
might be at minus 110.
Some might be
at plus 200.
Some are at minus 193.
Some are minus 500.
And some are
futures bets.
Maybe that might be,
that some people bet
might be at, you know,
plus 10,000.
So to say,
some those up
and just say,
hey, I hit 61%.
That doesn't actually
give you an indication
of how much you're winning
if you're winning better,
or honestly,
it's completely irrelevant.
The info that you need
is the win rate
that I have
above the win rate,
like the needed win rate
for that odds set.
So, if you're betting
at minus 110,
yes,
in order to be profitable
in the long term,
you need to hit
around 54%.
But that's if you're betting
every bet at minus 110.
If you're betting every bet
at plus 100,
then now,
if you're hitting
50.01%,
then you're up,
long term.
So the actual percentage,
in fact,
never matters.
And instead,
what I would urge anyone
to do wants to
have a better metric
to track success
of their bets,
is to track the ROI
of the wager.
And what that would be,
is you take the total amount bet
of all of your,
of all your wagers,
and then the total amount,
one or lost.
So, for example,
let's say you bet
10 bets,
whatever,
ranging in size
and that totals up to be
$10,000,
or let's say you bet
100 bets,
it totals up to be
$10,000.
And then,
you end up winning
on that $1,000.
On the average
of all your bets,
you won 1,000,
and your total stake,
total handle,
total risk amount,
was 10,000.
You just earned a 10% ROI.
10% ROI is phenomenal.
It's a great ROI.
So now,
to put this back
into perspective
we'll say,
oh, even the best professionals,
they'll only hit 60%.
Really,
the way it works,
and most professionals
will talk in terms of ROI.
Like, what is your turnover?
And then,
what is your ROI?
So, when you're looking at
the best professionals,
what do they hit?
I would say,
depending on the market,
something like
a 5% ROI,
would be very good.
Something like
a 1% ROI,
would still be enough
to keep the lights on
and make a ton of money
depending on the volume.
So, if someone says,
hey, I hit
25% ROI.
That's probably false,
and they don't really know
what they're talking about.
It's not really possible
to hit that much
over a long term.
You know,
maybe you might find
one segment or one thing
where you can get
achieved at ROI.
But overall,
the total betting portfolio
will be extremely hard.
And then, if someone says,
hey, I'm hitting
75% of my bets,
you really have to ask them,
like, okay,
are you betting all
minus 300?
Are you betting all
minus 1,000?
Because if you are betting
all minus 1,000,
you're down money.
Exactly.
So, that's the end of the rant.
I hope this clarifies some stuff.
As I mentioned,
any questions,
fire them in
and we'll be happy to expand more.
Yeah, it's all relative
to your average odds, basically.
You know, the people
can say exactly
like Johnny said, right?
I'm hitting 70%.
Okay, what are your average
odds?
Because, you know,
if you're hitting 70%,
this is not going to happen,
by the way.
But if you're hitting 70%,
on coin flips,
that, you know,
betting plus 100,
then, you know,
that's phenomenal.
But if you're hitting 70%,
your average bet
that's nothing.
So, it's all relative.
And this is like another one
where relativity is important.
So, for me,
one of the biggest pet peeves I see,
if you Google
sports betting information,
sports betting strategy,
you're going to see something
that very commonly comes up.
And it is true for a subsection
of bettors,
but it's not necessarily true
for everyone.
And the one thing
that drives me the craziest
is people who say
that too much volume
in sports betting
is bad,
or that you should
limit the amount of bets
that you place.
And in reality,
this is good advice
for a large portion
of the population.
Because if you don't have an edge,
and every single time you make a bet,
you're making a negative,
expected value wager.
You don't really have an edge.
The more bets you place,
the quicker you're going to run out of money.
Essentially,
the quicker you're going to lose your money.
But there are people
who do have edges.
In sports betting.
And not all of them
are capitalized.
And when I say that,
it's like,
there are people that bet.
They do well.
I'll use our producer,
Zach, as an example.
Zach's not betting
a thousand bucks a game.
Betting twenty bucks a game.
But he's winning.
He's capitalized.
He's under capitalized,
but he's winning.
Or not getting down,
like a life-changing amount
of money on every single bet.
But he does a good job.
And Zach plays a ton of volume.
And there's a reason
that if you have an edge,
you want to play more volume
because you're finding valuable bets.
And the more and more valuable bets
that you find,
the quicker you're going to be able
to build your bankroll.
Producers,
Zach started with $2 bets
over a year ago.
Literally $2 bets.
He is ten times his average bet size.
If not more than that right now,
purely by playing volume.
And when I say playing volume,
again,
this is a real edge,
a quantifiable edge.
He's betting a number
and the line is closing
at a better price than what he's betting.
He knows that.
He knows in the long run he's going to win.
So he's looking for as much volume as possible.
And generally as a rule of thumb,
if you do have an edge,
if you're tracking your closing line value,
you're beating the closing line 80% of the time,
90% of the time,
by wide margins,
you should be looking for more and more of that, right?
Because the more you can bet of that,
the quicker you're going to increase your bankroll.
And the exact opposite is true,
like I said before.
If you have no edge,
you're just a coinflipper,
you know,
you want to have some fun,
recreational betting,
that's when you probably want to limit what you're doing.
Because every single time you make that negative expected value bet,
there's negative expected value built into it.
It's more likely you're going to lose your bankroll quickly.
So don't just buy into like these preconceived,
you know, blanket statements.
Because yes, this applies to some people.
But if you're someone who has gone from a losing better
to a winning better,
or you're currently a winning better,
volume is actually your friend.
Find more winning bets.
I also see people a lot of times that are originators.
They do a bottom-up approach to sports betting.
They make a probability on the game,
and then they go shopbooks,
and they bet their edges.
But I see people say like,
oh, I only bet my top edges, right?
I only bet my biggest edge every single day.
Because they want to reduce risk.
Now, I'm not going to tell you how to bet your own money.
Everyone's own personal preferences apply here.
Some people are just risk averse, and that's fine.
But when you just start limiting yourself to betting your top edge,
or your top two edges,
you're actually leaving money on the table
if you actually do have an edge.
So let's say I ran my model one day,
and I had a 10% edge, a 9% edge,
an 8% edge, a 7% edge,
and I'm just throwing a random example,
all the way down to 1%.
Personally, if it were me,
I would bet every single one of those,
but I would adjust my bet size accordingly.
I would bet more on my biggest edge,
and less on my smaller.
Some people only bet the top ones,
and that's fine.
If that's their strategy, they want to avoid risk.
But in my opinion,
volume is good for you in that type of situation.
When you find edges, you want to play them.
It's no different than if somebody came to you,
and I'll put this into just like language
that every single person can understand.
But if I went to Johnny, and I had a coin,
and he knew it was a real coin,
and not a weighted,
forget about the weighted coin, stuff like that,
I actually just brought to him a nickel,
and said,
I'm going to give you plus 200 on every single coin flip.
How many times do you want to flip this?
He's going to say to me,
as many times as possible, right?
Because he's going to take plus 200 on a 50-50
as many times as possible.
He's not going to say,
I'm only going to flip this once.
And that's a known quantifiable edge.
It's a little bit different than sports betting.
But generally speaking,
if you have an edge,
if you're finding good bets,
there's proof of concept that the market is moving your way,
then don't worry about the volume.
Too much volume is not bad for you in that instance.
You're finding as many valuable bets as possible.
Yeah, I think also to add to Rob,
it also diversifies things a little bit more as well.
So you're going to actually have less overall losing days,
and more overall winning days.
So it's like to his nickel example.
Yeah, I'd rather flip it as many times as I can,
but if he came to me and said,
all right, you get one flip and settle up after that,
or you get 1,000 flips and we take the average,
and I'll pay you an average.
I would rather take the 1,000 flips and take out the average
because I know on average,
we're going to go 50-50 on that,
and I'm going to get the plus 200.
So I'd rather have something like that
as opposed to just like a one flip.
But that is truly what the value is,
and betting a little bit more.
But again, as Rob said,
this is only if you have an edge.
Betting more just to bet more in chasing losses
and just throwing dunkin' money on random stuff
is obviously not good.
Number three.
So number three is pretty much
if anybody mentions Vegas in any betting-related tweet
or post or anything,
or if they say the word Vegas,
it's typically wrong.
Vegas knows, you know, yeah.
If they say, hey, I went to Las Vegas,
then yeah, ignore that.
But and if they say, hey,
I placed this wager at circus sports in Las Vegas.
Yes, those I'm not complaining about.
But pretty much outside of those two scenarios.
Anyone that mentions Vegas in anything,
it's a complete falsification of what's going on,
like they don't understand.
So if you say, for example,
wow, Vegas had this at minus two
and the game landed on two.
Like, what are the odds?
That's crazy.
Vegas knows better than you.
Or if you say, wow,
Vegas had this game at this
and they ended up closing it at this.
So what a, like, they're so sharp.
Vegas knew the spread.
Vegas called the game.
How does Vegas do it?
How does Vegas do it?
Like, anything in regards to Vegas is usually wrong.
So in order to kind of explain this,
what I'll say is,
the whole Vegas misconception,
people think that the odds for betting is Vegas.
I don't understand how it's being said,
but it's just like,
oh, also, what are the odds?
Oh, what is it in Vegas?
That's what people say.
What's it in Vegas?
What does it do in Vegas?
They assume that, like,
there's just like these people in Vegas
or the whole place Vegas just makes odds
and they're just the exact odds for the game.
Okay, so I'll explain a little bit about how it really works,
which is someone who owns a bookmaking operation
or one of these sites
or something like that
will make the numbers for the game.
They will be like,
all right, the J's are playing the Astros.
I think it's going to be J's minus 147.
And they will open the lineup
and let people bet at it, bet at it,
at a very small limit.
Let's say it $100 for simplicity.
So they're like, all right,
I'm going to let anyone bet this at $100.
The shops that typically do this are not in Vegas.
In fact, they're not in Vegas.
Not typically, they're just not in Vegas.
The people who open the lines first are not in Vegas.
Now, circus sports we've had on Chris Bennett,
Jeff Benson, a few of our friends,
they're the closest to it.
And I think for some very few markets,
they do open first,
but for simplicity,
those shops are not in Vegas.
They're actually located offshore in the islands.
They're not in America,
they're not in Canada,
they're not in the UK,
they're not in Vegas.
Where they are is somewhere offshore.
And they will open up these bets
and they'll say, all right,
this is what we're going to have.
Here you go.
They'll let people bet at them.
And when people actually bet at those lines,
they will adjust the odds
in accordance to where they bet
and in accordance to how
call it sharp the people are who bet them.
So if there's one better,
who's really, really sharp
and he constantly beats the hockey lines.
And they open it up
and they see that this guy is betting this side,
this side, this side, this side, this side.
They will move those lines
to make sure that they are now,
quote unquote, on the same side
as that pro-better,
who is historically one on hockey,
and has a proven track record of winning on hockey.
So now, what happens is,
during this process,
the sports book,
who opened the lines,
they've now only taken like a few hundred dollar bets
or five hundred dollar bets,
whatever it is, depending on the sport.
So they're like,
okay, that's not that bad.
I know that this guy's going to win,
but he's only going to win
five hundred, a thousand,
two thousand, ten thousand max.
All of the rest of the sports books
that you see,
the majority of them,
will then copy those lines
and then they will basically
grab the same odds from that.
And then now,
some of them will do their own trading
based on who plays there
and then others will just leave them
and then copy them.
Whatever, the look online,
like, oh, this guy has this.
All right, perfect.
I'm going to move this to 150 now.
That's how it works.
So what's really happening
is when you say,
oh, Vegas nailed this spread.
Some guy in Costa Rica,
or girl,
some person in Costa Rica
made a number for one minus one 47.
The best baseball bettors in the world
continued to bet that
and if they bet it the one way,
it is going to move up to 175,
minus 175.
And then what happens is
the game gets played
and the number that is the closing number,
meaning where it was bettto,
is always sharper on the long run
than the opening number,
meaning Vegas itself
did not make any of those prices
and even the closing line when you say,
oh, this game opened at minus three
and it closed at minus six
and it landed on six.
They won the dolphins won by exactly six.
What are the odds?
It wasn't Vegas.
It was the pro bettors
that moved that number
into the range that it was.
So the bettors make the number.
Yes.
The sportsbooks just post the initial
and then move based on the information
that the bettors get.
Of all the info I just gave,
if you're a superstar better,
you're going to be able to poke holes
in a slight bit of things.
That's only because
this is for a beginner
and I don't want to get into everything.
But roughly that is how it works.
99.9% of there,
what you said there is,
like, of course.
We talked about this a lot.
I can't rant on this for like,
I can't rant on this for like 30 minutes.
We talk about every baseline possible
with every single thing.
But that's the crux of it.
And again,
if you're an Ontario
and use pinnacle as an example,
right, you can use this,
you can actually see this first hand
with anything that you do.
Anything that you bet right now.
But let's say for example
in an NFL season,
pinnacle is going to put out
the lines for next week
on Sunday night.
And the one difference
between pinnacle
and a lot of the regulated books
is that you can see exactly
what your max bet amount is on anything.
And you'll notice
when, let's say,
week one is just over in the NFL.
It's Sunday night,
pinnacles putting out numbers for week two.
You can go and bet those
and you'll see that you can typically bet
something like 500 bucks,
700 bucks, 1,000 bucks.
And then midweek,
that week,
you can bet 5,000 bucks.
You can bet 10,000 bucks.
And then guess what?
On an NFL Sunday,
you can bet 100,000,
200,000,
leading up to game time.
And ask yourself,
why a sportsbook
would let you bet way more,
right, when the game is about to go off,
than when they just open up the game.
And it's because
they've used all this information
from the betting market,
all the bets that have come in
to be able to accurately
price the game at that point.
That's how the market works.
They've used the information
from other bettors.
It's the bettors that determine the market.
And the sportsbook
just moves based off of that information.
If no one placed a bet,
it would just stay there forever.
They have no information to move it.
It would just stick there.
No one placed a bet,
no one got injured,
then the line would be what it was
when they opened it up
because there's no other information.
But they have the ability to process this.
And it's not just the actual limit.
It's how much they will move off the hit, as well.
So if you bet a $500 max bet,
it's minus 130.
That might move to minus 144,
which is a significant move.
Yep.
If you bet a game that's minus 130,
that's a 100k limit,
it's probably moving to minus 132,
which is less of a significant move.
So that's just another thing there
for the pros,
so you don't get it complete.
So you get some new info.
Yep.
You always got to wonder how Vegas knows this stuff.
I don't know how they know,
and it's like,
how is Vegas so sharp on the closing line?
How does it make sense?
How are they so much sharper than everyone else?
All right, Pizzola.
The only spot with betting in the world, obviously.
The fourth misconception.
All right.
So this one drives me crazy, too,
because I think this will very much,
if you're a recreational better,
obviously we don't discriminate
against any type of better.
If you want a bet for entertainment,
you do what you want to do with your money.
We just try to educate as best as we can.
But there's this huge,
there's this notion of hot record
in like the recreational community, right?
You win 10 bets in a row,
you're running hot.
You lose a bunch in a row,
you're ice cold.
And there's this notion,
and I hear it from my friends all the time,
that you should adjust your betting strategies
based off of whether you're hot or cold.
And I'm sure people are watching this,
and it's either like,
I've done this before,
or I know people who do this,
but it's like,
I'm hot, I'm gonna press.
I'm seeing the board clearly,
I'm pressing,
I'm getting more money down,
I'm putting down,
I'm cold,
I'm gonna take a few days off,
I'm gonna step back,
and listen,
there's like,
there's a mental component to betting as well.
If you're cold,
and you're like,
you're struggling with it,
you're losing money,
you want to take a few days off.
Go for that.
But hot and cold streaks,
and like seeing the board clearly
and not seeing the board clearly,
for 99% of people,
this is just a figment of your imagination.
Because there is a lot of randomness in sports.
There's a lot of variance in sports.
Go back to the example of flipping a coin.
But if you flip a coin 10 times,
it's not always gonna come up five heads and five tails.
Even though we know the probability of both sides is 50%,
there's gonna be times where you get 10 heads
in that coin flip.
It's not because you're seeing the coin flip clearly,
calling 10 coin flips properly or anything like that.
It's just random variance.
So with hot streaks and cold streaks,
when people say that they're hot,
they're searing the board clearly,
ask yourself,
ask your friends,
what are you doing differently right now
than when you were losing bets before?
When people say I'm on a hot streak,
I'm see, I'm reading the board so well,
what are you doing differently?
Then when you were on a cold streak.
And most people say nothing.
You're not doing anything differently.
It's just the variance of the actual bets.
So do not get caught up in this stuff
because sometimes you can make bad bets that win.
Sometimes you can make good bets that loose.
This happens all the time.
It will happen for the rest of your life
for every single type of better.
So forget about whether you're hot or cold.
Try not to vary your bet amounts too much
based off of whether you're hot or cold.
Obviously there's like standard bankroll management principles
that come into place.
If you're constantly losing,
yeah, maybe you want to reduce your bet size
because of like your bankrolls going down in general.
Same as if you're winning a lot.
Okay, you might increase a bit
because your bankrolls going up.
But do not press three times on a bet
because you've just won four in a row.
I mean, you can take two weeks off
because you lost a bunch of bets in a row
just because you can't stomach betting.
That's completely fine.
I'll never discourage that.
But the whole notion of adjusting your betting
based off of hot and cold
is just based off of luck.
It's based off of randomness for the most part.
Unless you are actually doing something completely different.
Like say you were just picking teams
based off of their mascot
and now all of a sudden
you're running some sort of sophisticated model.
This is going to apply to a nobody by the way.
If you're doing that,
then obviously that's something different.
But like if you're doing the same thing
you've done for the last seven months
and you won 12 games in a row,
it's probably just luck if that's the case.
So be aware of that.
And honestly, just like general rule of thumb
is just understanding that there is a
portion of luck that's involved in sports betting.
And it's always going to be like that.
So hot streaks, cold streaks.
Yeah, technically they exist.
Technically if you win 14 games in a row,
you're running hot.
But you haven't done anything differently
that led to that 14 game winning streak.
So don't feel like you need to
bet a bunch more money all of a sudden
because you just are on the right side of variance.
Yeah, agree with Rob completely.
There's a reason why if you've ever been to a casino
and you see the roulette wheel,
they put up a little board there
that shows like all the historical numbers.
Okay?
Now quite obviously it doesn't matter.
If it's come up 38 times red in a row,
the casino doesn't adjust the odds.
They never will, they never have.
What they put that up for is for people
who are believing in fictitious stuff.
Like, oh, I'm superstitious.
And like it came up red.
It can't be bad for the casino.
It's crazy.
It's like all 30 in a row red.
Like it's going to be red again.
I got to go or someone will be like,
no, it's due for a black.
Of course.
It just incentivizes more betting entices you to that.
No matter what, there's going to be someone
who says red is hot.
I need to press red.
And some guy that stands there and says,
oh, red is like the due factor on black.
Like we're betting.
Like no matter what,
it's just encouraging.
Just encouraging betting.
And I think Rob did cut,
he did touch on the one thing
that actually is important
within winning more or losing more is
you should have a bankroll
that's just for sports betting.
You should never be betting
with like your life's money
or money that you might double for rent
or anything like that.
So if you just have your sports betting bankroll
and that's a thousand bucks,
your average bet size
shouldn't be a hundred.
It should be closer to ten.
Right?
But if you just doubled that bankroll
because you went on a massive hot streak,
now you have 2000.
In theory, you can now be betting 20, 25.
Right?
So you can bet more based on your bankroll
if it grows and you should bet less
if you now cut that thousand
and now you're down to a hundred,
then your ten dollar unit size is too much.
So anyways, great observation.
And that's one that I think I see a lot.
It's like I'm hot
and then you always see when people are hot,
more people tell them.
And then they're just like,
for what?
In my inner group of friends,
this is the most common one by far.
Like, you know, like we get together,
we watch an NFL Sunday at one o'clock.
One guy goes like seven and one against a spread
because he bets every game all the time.
And then I'm like, what's he back for the four o'clock?
He's taking all of his profit
and he's going to press it on the four o'clock games.
And it's like, you know,
it's just not ideal.
Especially in like an eight game sample.
He goes seven and one on eight NFL games,
which are very close to coin flips.
I mean, they are coin flips if you're betting two minutes
before the game like he is anyways.
So he's done nothing
other than just win seven coin flips.
Yeah.
And he thinks that because of that,
that like nine tenths and 11th coin flips
are more likely to work in his favor.
That's just not the case.
All right.
Misconception number five.
Sportsbooks move the odds.
This is a continuation of the last one.
Sportsbooks move the odds
so that they can get an equal amount on each side
and then they just profit the juice,
the vague that they charge.
So this one is,
it's funny because people who think who like say this
are typically people who think they know
more about sports betting than like the average person.
They're like, no, you don't get how it works.
Like the sportsbook moves it.
So they're even like aware of the odds movement, right?
Which is a little bit even more frustrating.
So this is completely false.
100 million percent false.
There are going to be some situations
where sportsbook will move to manage a position.
But the goal of trading sports betting
is absolutely not to balance the action
on either side and just make the juice.
This would also be impossible.
The reason it's impossible is because the most commonly bet
wager types are spread bets or total bets.
And on a spread or a total,
let's say the game is at Miami Dolphins,
at home to the Jets,
it'd be minus three.
If I'm taking a lot of bets on minus three,
I can either move the juice to minus 45,
minus 55, minus 75, which nobody does,
or I can move the game to minus three and a half.
As soon as I move that to minus three and a half,
good luck now with your balance action.
It can't you how are you going to balance your position.
You might take wagers on now the Jets at plus three and a half,
and you have the Dolphins at minus three.
If it lands three, you just got middle.
You just middleed yourself, scalped.
So basically the way it works is what I explained
in the previous misconception.
The better it comes in, the better moves it,
based on how sharp he or she is,
based on the profile of the account,
based on the amount of the wager,
and the time of the day,
and the amount of the betting limits.
If you move it heavy in one way,
the sportsbook could move that
and entice action on the other side,
but they would be doing so at a complete dog-shit price
that doesn't make sense,
and therefore would actually be losing more money.
So the real sportsbooks that are actually
booking bets legit and trying to make money
are always going to have positions
on one side of a game.
It'll be extremely rare.
I've talked to some people who manage
the largest sportsbooks in the world.
They will say every day,
let's say a slate of MLB games.
You have money line, you have side, you have total.
Forget about first half.
Forget about every player prop.
Forget about every parlay.
By the way, it's another thing.
How do you manage position with parlayers?
Because you might have the Miami Heat
and then you might also have the Miami Heat
parlayed with the Boston Bruins.
Good luck.
What if that Bruins won,
they both had seven o'clock start?
How are you doing that?
The goal of the bookmaker,
and sorry, to finish up my last thought,
was on the whole slate of MLB,
let's say 15 games on the day.
You have spread, you have total, you have money line.
So 15 times three bet types per game.
You have 45 different things that you will have a bet on.
There might be maybe one
on the full day where the bookmaker
will win regardless of the outcome.
And where it's balanced and they don't carry about the outcome.
Every other game,
they will need one side to win
and one side to lose in order to be profitable.
They have incredible prices because of the juice
and because of the big.
Exactly.
They're able to win on the total portfolio.
But there's just no practical way to balance action
in today's sports betting environment.
And it absolutely doesn't work like that.
Nor is it smart to actually balance action.
It's better to have plus EV positions as a bookmaker
and flow those through your entire sheet.
So you want like, okay, top.
Game one, I have all these great positions.
Game two, I have all these good positions.
Game three.
And then yeah, it's very, very common
for a bookmaker to lose on one day on one sport.
Like, ah, we lost on MLB today.
We may have lost on MLB this weekend.
But on the season, we're up.
Totally agree with everything said.
And for those that don't know,
I made it very clear on past episodes as well.
Johnny has never worked for a sportsbook.
I actually have consulted for several sportsbooks before.
So people might say, ah, who are you guys
to say that whether this is true or not?
Well, I've seen it firsthand
with my own personal experience.
If you still don't believe that,
episode 61 of Circles Off, Chris Bennett,
we interview that we reference this interview a lot.
The director of risk at the time for circus sports,
since been promoted.
Congratulations, Chris, by the way, on that.
But listen to that episode if you do not understand
anything about how bookmaking works.
Because you're getting it directly from someone
who is the, at that time, director of risk
for a massive vetting operation, Circa Las Vegas.
So just, if you don't believe us, listen to him,
but definitely check out that episode.
I'm going to reach into my pocket here for the next exam.
Hold up.
Send this to, so if you have buddies that have said
these in the past in group chats, whatever it might be,
hey, sportsbooks set the odds or balance action.
Or like, ah, Vegas knows the spread.
What is this guy doing with his fake money?
Fake Canadian.
I actually want it.
I need, I want real money for the video for the next exam.
Okay.
But send this to your buddy.
So Zach is clipping these up where there'll be time stamp
for each example.
If there's an example, what you can do on YouTube is
you can share the video at that exact placement.
So go to it.
Click share.
Your buddy will open it up.
Soon as he clicks it, he's right on that example.
Do it.
Send it out to at least one person today.
And there's also a reason that that's one
of our most highly viewed interviews of all time.
There's a lot of great nuggets in there.
Also, if you ever want to check out Matthew Trinhale
from Pinnacle Sports, who we had on,
who's the head of growth trading there as well.
Another great interview to get into the mind of what
a sportsbook operation is like.
Yeah.
And how it doesn't actually work, like most people say.
All right.
Rob's got his...
That's some Canadian dollars.
He's got some Canadian...
Honestly, I...
This is not planned.
Like, 100%.
I would admit if it was planned.
But for the listeners on audio, Rob has its about...
210 bucks.
Which is honestly the perfect amount to illustrate the next exam.
All right.
Let's see.
Anyways.
Fading the public.
I want to talk about this.
People ask me all the time.
So the most common one I get.
Fading the public.
Is it a viable strategy?
Is it not?
I'm going to explain to you why fading the public.
And what people think fading the public is.
Isn't really the exact same thing that they think it is.
So I'm going to give Johnny a hundred bucks here.
In 20s.
Green 20s.
I'm going to keep 110.
I'm going to keep 110.
By the way, I do like Canadian money better than Americans.
It's a little bit easier for me.
See the colors and stuff.
It's a little more plastic.
I think it is plastic.
But it's just a little more plastic.
You can...
You don't like it?
You know what fans ask?
It's durable.
Durable.
Yeah.
It goes through the washing machine, all kinds.
It comes back like this.
You can like maple syrup.
You can throw in the dev levers.
All right.
So Rob just gave me a hundred bucks in 20s.
Okay.
So when I go to place a bet on an NFL spread.
Right?
Generally speaking.
This is the perfect amount of money.
I can't believe it.
I actually could not believe it.
I was looking for 110.
But then I'm like, I have 210.
Exactly.
Go ahead.
Go ahead.
Yeah.
I don't want to do 11 and 10 and show people what loonies are in the US.
That was said people with the orbit.
But if I'm going to place a bet on NFL and I'm betting a spread on a game.
Generally speaking, at most books, you're paying ten cents.
So if I want to win 100 bucks, I'm betting 110 to win 100.
So let's just say Johnny's got his bookmakers license for a second here and he wants to take my bet.
I'm risking 110 to win 100 from him.
We don't really need the money for this example.
But I do like the visual anyways.
Okay.
So you're paying the 110 to win 100.
If Rob wins, I pay him his 110 back plus his 100.
So let's say I'm the public side.
Okay.
I'm on the side.
You went to some website and you saw that 69% of the bets are on the Falcons this week.
And you don't want to be on the other side because you want to fade the public.
If you're fading Rob, you want to be on the side of Johnny.
Johnny's the book, right?
Well, guess what?
You're not going to be on the exact same side as Johnny because Johnny has a bet right now of $100 to win 110.
His bet is 100 to win 110.
You want to be on the same side as Johnny?
You got to put down 110 to win 100.
It's not apples to apples.
It's not the exact same thing.
The luxury that the sportsbook has and why the public generally loses is because there's a VIG on the bets.
It's this extra 10 bucks is the VIG right here on the bet where this is the built-in-edge.
If you go to a casino, you play casino games, there's built-in-edge.
This is the built-in-edge in sports betting.
And now in order for you to fade the public, you want to be on the same side as the book,
you're paying 110 to win 100.
You're not paying 100 to win 110.
There's about a 5% difference in the win rate that is needed for you to win your bet.
So this whole strategy is not apples to apples.
There's no blind strategies that you can just go out and copy them word-for-word,
like implement them where you're just going to win money.
These are betting markets.
This is not the way it works.
If all of a sudden only underdogs were winning, everyone knew that.
The market would adjust to that.
If it was all the anti-public sides that were winning every single week,
the market would adjust to that.
Over enough time, the market catches up to that.
So use this as an example.
Think about this every single time.
If you want to be on the side of the book, you want to be on the side of Johnny's favorite, Vegas,
or whatever, offshore book, regulated book, you're not getting the same price
and price is the most important thing with betting.
So just be very, very cognizant of that.
And this is why people think I have this vendetta against the Fade the public people.
They don't really understand what they're preaching.
They really don't.
The whole premise is built on a go-look at the Vegas strip.
You see all the buildings there?
How did those get built?
Well, mostly from Casino money, not sports betting money, first and foremost.
But this is the whole premise that...
But Casino is the same.
It's the same shit.
It's the same shit.
This is the whole premise that this was built on.
And people get fall into this trap all the time.
You can't, you know, forget about, like, this is just purely a mathematical...
I can go on for days about how the numbers you're looking at in terms of the public bet percentages are meaningless
because they're mostly coming from sportsbooks who limit sharp action anyways.
There's more and more to this.
But this principle is very understandable, right?
It's not the same bet.
You're never getting the same bet as the sportsbook.
If you could, then sure.
But like, those are...
That would be an off-market price.
Those don't exist.
So remember, every time you bet, you pay a big.
You're paying extra money to be on the same side as the sportsbook.
And Johnny's going to give me my 100 bucks back as well.
But for example, throw this in the middle.
I'm pinnacle right now and Rob's the better, okay?
He just threw in 110.
I throw in 100.
Whoever wins their bet, which is 50-50, takes it.
Who's side he want to be on?
Exactly.
So it's fine to bet that 110 if you feel that you're not 50-50.
But to just say, oh, I want to be on the side of the book, he like,
if I win that bet, I just grab 210 now.
For my 100, if Rob wins the bet, he grabs 100.
It's very, very black and white here.
You cannot just say, I want to be on the side of the bookmaker.
You should want to be on the side of the bookmaker at the price of the bookmaker.
I generally think, and we can, again,
we can do like a very, very big episode on this at some point or another.
Generally speaking, I think that thinking contrarian,
not only in sports betting, but in life, is a good habit to have.
I believe that.
Some people may disagree, this is just pure opinion.
But I think being contrarian, thinking outside the box,
more so than just like fading everything that everybody's going to do.
But just thinking outside the box, I think that's a good quality to have.
But this is just like sheep to the slaughter type of stuff,
with the fade the public stuff, because it's not the same thing.
And you have to understand that it's not the same thing.
All right, so my fourth and final example,
number seven, sports betting myths is,
and this one, it's a myth,
and we'll explain exactly why it's a myth here,
is parlays are sucker bets, okay?
So generally speaking, when you hear someone bet a parlay,
like this guy's a massive square,
or you might say, hey, this guy is a massive winner,
he won this big parlay.
And a lot of people, when someone posts like a parlay,
a 5x parlay, they'll be like, oh, this guy,
he can't be a winner, he's betting parlay.
So all I want to do is explain what an actual parlay is for everybody.
All you are doing is just pre-placing all of the next bets,
with the same amount of money.
So if I want to place a $10 parlay,
and I now do two games, plus a hundred on each game,
the payout on that is going to be $10 for $30,
three to one on the assuming plus a hundred
and you're getting fair parlay odds.
So you'll be betting $10 for $30, okay?
This is just the exact same.
As me placing, let's say my parlay is the perfect example.
Jays are playing a double header, first the white socks.
Game one, they're plus a hundred,
and this is a one PM Eastern start.
Game two is a seven PM Eastern start,
and they're also plus a hundred in both games.
So if I place a bet on the Jays in game one,
$10 wins, returns another 10, so wins 20.
Returns 20 wins 10.
So now I place $10 bet on the Jays.
I got an extra 10 back because they won that game.
Now I have 20.
I roll over that 20, place it on the Jays for the night game.
I win that bet, they give me another 20.
I staked up my initial 10.
I've doubled up, then I've doubled up again.
I now have $40 in my possession, okay?
So I bet the Jays, and then I rolled it over and bet the Jays again.
This is the exact equivalent,
as if I just bet the Jays parlayed with the Jays.
Double header, day night, plus a hundred, plus a hundred.
I'm gonna risk my 10, I'm gonna get 30.
So in total, in both scenarios, I have the exact same amount of money.
I won the exact same amount of money.
In the first scenario, if I bet on the Jays game one,
and they lose, and I don't re up on game two,
which is the same as the parlay, I'm out $10.
If I bet on the Jays in game one, they win, they lose game two.
I had doubled up, I'm down $10.
So in both scenarios, all you're actually doing
is just rolling your money over.
A parlay is not some trick.
It's not some like, oh, this is crazy.
Like this thing is for suckers,
they're taking so much like different stuff here that's taking more big.
It's not how it works.
All you're doing is rolling more over.
The reason why parlayes are generally bad,
is because people just say,
I'm gonna risk a dollar, I'm gonna try to win 10,000 on that dollar.
And they put in a bunch of positions,
and each of those positions in general are negative EV positions.
And when you have all negative EV positions in a parlay,
you're even more likely to lose,
because you just compounded your edge,
and most of the time you're playing super general long shots
that are usually not gonna hit.
So people think, ah, if he's betting parlayes, it's guy sucks.
But, and it's mostly true.
And if you see someone betting parlayes on Twitter
and they're posting five team parlayes
of all these player props in same game parlayes, yeah,
he probably sucks.
I'll say it as it is.
Most likely is not a winning better.
But, just to educate on what a parlay actually is,
I think it's super important for people to realize,
is that the parlay itself is not the bad part.
The bad part is that you're just dunking a bunch of money.
It's the same as just betting 100 straight bets.
And having them all be negative EV positions,
you're gonna lose the same amount.
Yep.
And there's one thing I will add to that.
Actually, it's a very good explanation.
So, like, just understanding what a parlay is,
is very important before any bet type,
before you wanna dunk on a bet type,
you should understand it in complete completion.
Another thing with parlayes are suckers bets.
Talk to any pro about ways to work around
getting limited on an account as well.
I'm not saying this like, listen,
I don't have the insights to every single sports book
and how to avoid getting limited.
But generally speaking, if you are a winning better,
often times you might wanna use a parlay
as a tool to avoid detection.
It's not foolproof.
Some books profile very differently from others.
Again, I have some experience in this,
having consulted for sports books before.
But there's way more to parlayes than just their suckers bet.
For a lot of people, they will be a suckers bet.
Like Johnny said, some people,
as he said, which I enjoyed,
some people suck.
They just suck at betting.
And it is what it is.
Like, that's just the reality of the situation.
But for a lot of people, they can be useful
and understanding how they work.
You can use that to your advantage.
And just so we're clear here,
I'm not recommending playing parlayes.
In fact, I would strongly recommend you don't play parlayes
and only play straight bets.
But with that being said,
I did wanna take the time to actually explain what it is.
But yes, for a general rule of thumb,
if you're starting out,
if you're someone who your buddy sent you this episode,
you're trying to learn some misconceptions.
And you are playing parlayes right now.
99.9% of the time,
you should just cut those out completely and not play them.
And that's what I would recommend for that newer type of better
or existing better who might be experienced
and trying to look at ways to win a little bit more.
Final one for me.
This one drives me nuts.
Sportsbooks.
Try to bait you with odds boosts.
This one's like the Galaxy Brain meme, you know, all the time.
And I've talked about this recently for more of the recent viewers.
Odds boosts are just a promotional tool for the sportsbook.
Johnny's already talked about how betting markets work.
Things of that nature.
There's no baiting happening.
All of this began
when I believe I could be wrong,
but I believe it was drafting this year
that offered an odds boost on Justin Herbert
to throw a touchdown pass.
One plus touchdown pass, odds boost.
And in that game Justin Herbert did not throw a touchdown pass.
And immediately the conspiracy theory started first and foremost
when you're looking at a range of a quarterbacks outcomes
of throwing a touchdown pass,
zero is a possibility.
It's always going to be a possibility for any quarterback.
There could be injury in the game.
There's just lots of games where they don't throw a touchdown passes.
So it's going to happen.
But that bet on that night happened to be a very good bet that didn't win.
And there's no baiting that's happening here.
This is again just a marketing tool.
If there was baiting into this,
ask yourself why most sportsbooks are limiting you to 50 bucks on an odds boost.
If they actually knew the outcome of the game
and were baiting you into betting something,
that was a horrible bet, predetermined.
Why would they only let you bet 50 bucks into your account?
Just think about that from a logical perspective.
For all the conspiracy theories,
the sports are fixed, predetermined,
the sportsbooks, Vegas knew, whoever else knew.
Why would you not just be able to bet whatever you wanted on an odds boost?
People are literally saying now, if a book boosts it,
I'm betting the other side on purpose at the regular odds instead of the boosts it odds.
Use odds boosts to your advantage, honestly.
Now, I'm not saying go and bet every single odds boost on the planet,
because not every single one is a good bet.
But the beauty of odds boosts is you can almost always price out this bet at every other sportsbook.
Or you can even take four or five other sportsbooks, right?
Let's say something is boosted to plus 200,
and now you go to five other sportsbooks,
and you take a look at what the price is,
oh, pinnacle has this at plus 100.
You know, other sportsbook has this at minus 110,
and you're getting plus 200, guess what?
That's a good bet, and you should make that bet.
Now, oftentimes, there's odds boosts that just aren't very good.
You can go in price shop, you can compare to other sportsbooks,
and be like, oh, this isn't actually a great price.
I can get a better price if I go bet it over here,
but the notion of being baited with the odds boosts,
I can't even, and again, this is from experience.
In my lifetime, I've experienced this.
The amount of effort that goes into picking an odds boost
is equivalent to somebody throwing a dart at a wall,
and it just lands on a rent.
There are literally times where someone will just...
Hold up, just so people know.
We're a sports betting affiliate at Betstamp here.
A lot of sportsbooks will just come,
and we have a rep with them, and they'll say, hey,
we want to pick a Betstamp odds boost for today,
and we just send them in whatever we want.
They literally let us pick it before.
We were picking the odds boosts for other books,
for multiple, not like we still do.
So it is absolutely just a random thing.
Like, it's not like they're crazy picking it for us.
And I can assure you that we don't sit in some boardroom
together as a Betstamp team, and be like, oh,
what can we bait the people into betting?
We bet the odds boosts that we pick ourselves,
because they're bets that we want to have.
I don't know where this started.
I don't know how it's still going.
Honestly, I don't like blanket rules of thumb on anything,
but I'll give a blanket rule of thumb here.
If someone preaches to you,
that sportsbooks are trying to bait you with odds boosts,
and to not bet these, and even further, like Johnny said,
to actually go out and bet the opposite sides,
at like horrible prices,
their opinion on sports betting should be dismissed entirely.
Like, this is non-negotiable.
There is nothing to this,
and I cannot preach that enough from personal experience,
multiple times in life.
Okay, a lot of times now, sportsbooks will put up 25 odds boosts,
and half of them are not like...
The vast majority are not actually good bets,
and they're just a little bit better than they were.
But they're not trying to...
It's crazy.
The ones that are actual true promo bets,
like that Justin Herbert bet,
people were acting as if...
When that lost, people were reacting as if the bet was just in Herbert
to attempt one pass,
which is that one would be nearly a travesty if he lost.
But this one's had a very...
You can bet how many passes will Justin Herbert,
how many passes will he have?
Zero, one, two, three, plus.
And the zero is not like...
It's probably...
It's definitely not even like...
It's not 20 to 1.
It's under that.
It's within the realm of possibilities.
Look at some of the odds boosts for the Super Bowl every year.
Okay?
There are legitimately odds boosts that cannot lose.
Sportsbooks will offer...
Will there be a point in the game at plus 100?
It is basically a free $50 for you if you bet that.
Like, there's no fix.
The game isn't getting canceled.
There's not gonna be like a bomb threat that calls the game off,
and everyone's gonna lose their $50.
Super Bowl is getting played every year.
Like, they did each team to score a point.
Now, is that a guarantee?
Technically no.
You couldn't get shadow.
Exactly.
But like, at plus 100, that's just a promo.
You take it.
Anyways, we got a new segment as well.
We do.
To close off.
I'm a little short on time, so I'm only gonna give one this week.
Unacceptable.
I will give...
So what's the segment?
Okay.
Queue it up.
So, plus EV minus EV.
Every week that we don't have a guest on here,
we're gonna talk about...
It doesn't have to be related to sports.
Sometimes we'll try to keep it to it.
But each of us, myself, Johnny and Zach,
give out a piece of life advice or sports advice or whatever.
Just anything that we think is positive expected value
and a piece that is negative expected value.
So, Johnny will kick it off.
He's gonna give out one for this week.
Alright, so this week I'll give out a negative EV play.
This is all opinion-based, by the way.
I'm not saying I'm right.
I'm not saying I'm wrong.
This is my opinion on all of these.
And I'll try to keep them not that obvious ones.
Okay.
So, massive negative EV play.
Buying anybody a card to accompany a gift.
Or ask their gift, which is even more negative EV.
So, rational behind this, okay.
This is for everything.
Birthday, wedding, anything.
We just went to a wedding this past weekend.
You didn't buy a card.
Like, what do you put the money in?
You got to put it in a card.
I had somebody else take care of it for me.
Would you do like a crypto transfer?
I had a buddy's fiance.
I had a grab a card and I said,
like, just loop me in on this and here's the cash.
So, like, that was just the solution around it.
That was more in regards to me just not, like,
being on a tight for time on that day
and not every time they go actually physically grab a card.
Yep.
But, in general, cards now, inflation, way up.
You're going to go buy a buddy, a birthday card.
You're looking at $7.
You're looking at, honestly, between $6 and $10.
It's actually a joke.
For the envelope and the card, okay.
When you're looking at giving them a gift,
let's say you're giving your buddy or you're giving your nephew.
You're giving your nephew who's seven years old.
$100 for his birthday.
And you're paying seven percent tax to put that in a card
that he's never going to use ever.
Never even going to probably may not even be able to read the card,
depending on the age.
They're young enough.
Can't even read the card.
Completely useless.
Throwing straight in the garbage.
You're buying your nephew a card.
Take that money.
Give him, hand him $107 and say, hey, I didn't get you a card.
But this is life.
You don't need this card.
This $7, you're going to invest it.
Compound this.
When you're 30 years old, you're going to thank me.
Because I'm giving you so much more than everyone else has given you a hundred in the card.
Massive negative EV.
Buy in a card.
I actually strongly agree with you.
I went, so we had a wedding this past weekend.
I'll show a picture.
You probably won't be able to see it on here.
But this is a shoppers drug mart wedding card aisle right now.
Completely sold out of wedding cards.
I even asked someone.
Do you have more in the back?
Completely sold out.
So this business is thriving right now.
But yeah, I just called home to my wife, Diana.
I said, do we have any like random cards lying around the house?
She's like, yeah, there's one here that says thinking of you.
I said, boom, that's our wedding card.
Cash in the envelope.
Put a little sticky note.
Hey, it's a joke, man.
Someone a card?
Are you?
I'm not cheap.
But like these things, you still go to the dollar store and pay a dollar for it.
You literally throw that out.
And listen.
This is just another play here.
And anyone who listen to this podcast, you know the same me.
But bad for the environment as well.
Save that environmental stuff.
That's good, man.
Save your coming around.
Save your recycle by the way.
No, I do recycle where applicable.
But here's what I'm also saying.
You're also just buying that.
And that's literally going straight into trash.
Like if you keep cards, you're a cycle path.
If you keep all the cards you ever got for your life, you're a cycle path.
You throw those out.
Anyways, immediately.
What is the point?
Anyways, Rob.
So that's my negative EVV play of the week.
All right.
Zach, let's hit.
Let's hit you plus EV and minus EV.
All right.
So first and foremost, I got to the positive EVV play here is Phil Mikkelsen going to live.
All right.
Here's the bag, gambling debts gone.
That's it.
And yeah, it looked bad in the moment.
But at the end of the day, like, this guy changed the face of golf here.
All these PGA guys, they're going to be getting paid.
He's kind of becoming back to the PGA.
Like that whole little legacy period.
It's kind of, it's going to be at some point.
People are just going to look past it.
They're not going to care.
And he's walking away with an absolute bag.
So basically what I'm going to say here is if someone offers you that much money, take it.
Like if the Saudi betting network hits me up, Rob.
No, I'm gone, dude.
Nobody can recruit Zach away from the hammer.
We're very reliant on Zach right now.
There's a message to people out there.
But yeah, I agree on the Mikkelsen stuff.
Like, in the moment, he looked like a bit of a scumbag.
Listen, like Michael Vick ran like a dog fighting.
Like back in broadcasting now.
People get over this shit.
So like when you're offered life changing money, I'm not saying you do whatever you want it.
You make your own decisions as a person.
And there's like a humanitarian side of things.
And I'm not saying like, Saudis have done some bad things.
Like, I'm not supporting that.
But like, he's now in the situation where he's just, he's having a good laugh at everything that's happened.
Yeah.
You know, it's having a good laugh.
I just, I like the Harold Varner move more than Mikkelsen.
Because Harold Varner went to live.
And everybody's getting asked at like why are you going to live?
Good golf and this and that.
And Varner just came out and straight up said, he's like, bro, he's like the next, you know, 20 generations of Varners don't have to work a day in their life.
Like, I would be an idiot not to do that.
And like anyone who's saying otherwise, that I respected a lot.
But I agree with you Zach.
Minus EV for you Zach.
Okay.
Minus EV.
We're having a deal with this right now where I guess I am at this point.
We just moved the office downtown and it's just driving downtown.
It is fucking hell.
Like, there's no other way around it.
I haven't moved down here yet.
It's a rough goal.
Driving down here today to record this.
It's raining.
I haven't really dealt with driving downtown when it was raining like bad weather or anything like that.
Now, not necessarily to say it was horrible weather, but it's just, it's, it's hell.
Yeah.
A commute is negative.
A commute sucks.
No one's going to argue that.
A commute to a major city.
It sucks.
Commuting anywhere is negative.
No one's going to argue that ever.
So basically, sometimes I like, sometimes I like to go for like a bike ride or something.
Go bike around your house around the block.
And then you at least don't half, that's like people saying, oh, I wanted to get a spot.
That was a 35 minute away from walk away from work because then I get to walk 35 minutes into work every day.
Okay, buddy, get a spot one minute away from work and walk around the block for 35 minutes.
It's not the same.
Well, it's not the same because.
Listen, I agree with you.
The minute it actually is the same.
It is the same.
No, it's different.
I want to walk 30 minutes to work.
Okay, great.
Go walk 50 minutes one way, then walk back a different way and walk 30 minutes to work.
You can always walk longer to work.
You can walk.
Okay.
No, no, no, no.
No, no, no, no.
You walk by the dog park or whatever.
You can make your work.
So let's say you walk, let's say you live a minute away from work.
You can make your walk to work as long as you fucking walk.
Of course you could.
You want to walk three hours to work?
Go walk three hours to work.
You can do whatever you want.
You can never make a 30 minute walk, a one minute walk.
You can make a one minute walk, a 30 minute walk.
There's what you're saying.
I would rather be 30 away because I like to walk and work every day.
Well, you can do that anyways.
Okay.
You could literally live in the same building as you were.
You could sit in a different path and walk 30 minutes.
You could walk 30 minutes to work.
At that fair point, I did not think of that.
For me, plus EV, it's funny because probably if you asked me this five years ago,
I would have said this is minus EV, but my whole perspective has changed.
Plus EV, attending live sporting events.
There was a part in my life where I was like,
why would I want to go to this game when I could sit at home on the couch,
be comfortable, eat whatever I want, blah, blah.
This last week in Toronto, we had the RBC Canadian Open.
Fantastic event.
I was able to get out there.
Go see live golf in person.
It's so fun.
It's amazing.
And like, these people are amazing.
Like, you see professional athletes up to that close, especially if you golf yourself
and you're like, oh my god, like, the way that these guys hit the ball,
absurdly good.
On top of that, I took my godson to his first Blue Jays game on the weekend,
on Sunday, 76 Jays come back against the twins with a couple home runs.
Kid had a blast.
I had a blast.
Forgot how fun it was going out to live sporting events.
So do it as often as possible.
It's easy to just like get sucked into like nowadays and like we're lazy or at home.
We have everything we could want on our couch.
Get out there.
You just don't have those feels if you're sitting at home on your couch.
Minus EV.
This is a betting-related one.
See this a lot.
And I saw it this week.
Again, positive rob.
I've turned a new leaf.
I'm not going to roast anyone or anything like that.
Or I'll say be a hypocrite within one way.
With that being said, he's about to roast someone.
No, someone's going to know, but I want to, this is a larger.
This is not a personal attack.
It's not at those shitty points.
But don't please let's not get into this like that again.
Let's not pretend we didn't work for points bet.
Let's not pretend that this didn't happen.
Okay.
Like come on people.
I know who people are out there.
You don't have to pretend like.
Anyways.
Minus EV.
I don't care if the above points bet by the way.
It's the hypocrisy of like thinking you're changing like everything.
The betting community for like.
Anyways.
Anyways.
And now half people don't even understand what you're talking about.
I look like a complete like a old man, you know, and yells at cloud type of moment.
I'm done with that.
Minus EV.
Do not reference the pre game betting line.
When you say that your live bet was a good bet.
Okay.
You cannot say, oh, my live bet was, you know, my live bet of plus 14 was good.
Because the pre game line was plus eight.
Stuff happened in the game that is changing the lot.
This is why we have live lines.
There's things that happen in the game.
There's injuries.
There's whatever team could be shooting poorly or whatever.
You cannot say, oh, I would make that bet 100 times out of 100 at plus eight plus 14
because the pre game closes plus eight.
It's not how this works.
You have to adapt to new information.
So please, first of all, don't do that.
If you're just doing that as a betting strategy, it's not a good one.
I've just been like, oh, pre game closed here.
I'm going to just try to get everything like around that pre game number.
Not the greatest, especially with the amount of vigor in the live line.
But on top of that, do not use this as like a way to pat yourself on the back.
It's like a closing line value argument that doesn't exist.
It's not the same information.
So that's it.
Plus EV minus EV.
One announcement before we're out this week.
90 degrees here on the circles off channel YouTube and podcast form.
We'll continue.
But without Kevin Davis.
We had Kevin Davis on a couple of weeks ago.
Big life change for Kevin.
He's the best.
Still love Kevin.
Talk to him all the time.
He cannot do the show anymore.
Cannot do 90 degrees.
Don't want to get into the reasons why.
Like no falling out.
No firing.
Nothing like that.
It's all good.
Everything is good.
But Kevin Davis will no longer be the host of night.
He took another job in the industry that prohibits him from now doing the pot.
I think that's fair to say.
And it's a perfectly acceptable and we're super happy for him.
100%.
He's the best.
So we were scouring for hosts.
And it's just common.
There's a lot of guys out there that love this guy.
There's egg Pete.
There's a shipper.
The shipper.
Spots better.
Points better.
All those guys.
I heard that the fanatics as the fanatics.
They are huge fans.
Oh, there's like real Frank Kastanza too.
There's a bunch of them out there that are huge fans of G-Stack.
George Cifalitis, who will be taking over as the head coach.
As the host of 90 degrees starting next week.
George Cifalitis will be in the chair.
We welcome him to the hammer betting network.
Not only in the co-host role for 90 degrees, but also for some stuff on forward progress.
If you're not subscribed to forward progress on YouTube or in podcast form.
That's the NFL content division of the hammer.
I'd highly suggest you do so.
But G-Stack, George Cifalitis.
You can watch Kevin Davis.
By the way, none of this was planned by the way.
I cannot believe how this worked out.
You can watch Kevin Davis' last interview with George Cifalitis.
Somehow this worked out right here.
You can listen to it in audio form as well.
We had Kevin on here.
Kevin had George on and then we did an alto transition.
It's honestly though.
We really wanted to...
I love Kevin a lot.
And I wanted him to get his shining moment and learn more about his story.
We got a lot of good feedback from people who like get to see the side of Kevin's personality
that a lot of people don't know about.
But leave it to me.
Like this is my luck in life as a person.
That we would do like a show with Kevin to promo 90 degrees.
And within two weeks he has to leave.
But we wish him the best.
George Cifalitis.
Tune in for him next week.
Well, let's have a good week everyone.
It's going to be a sick week.
Let's sign up for everyone.
Sign up for one new sportsbook.
If you don't have it, grab a bonus.
MLB.
Got some UFC.
We got a bunch of different stuff.
Sign up for a new book.
www.betstamp.app.
Slashcircles off.
Link in description.
QR code on screen.
Sign up for a new book.
See you guys all next week.
Peace.
Copyright WDR 2021