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Geh auf Shopify.de schreit Strichpodcast23.
Auch 5週 deix mercury ausiniziilrire.
Baun an dieiche Volkklche ist der guckendeilений^^
avait uns sehen, sie bekommen Braggefesser.
Ein Mayer, der只是 am leveragingberuchsittagspreisverschieden mit besucht ist,
Physics zu 올 sein, killing von dem Mass advice kam.
Nürnou können wir von einem codedie Nürnou vorliegen!
Auch 8 Jahre alt!
Wirriziert uns auf!
Welcome to Circles Off, episode number 115,
right here on Circles Off YouTube channel,
in Audioform as well on Spotify and App of Podcast Part
of the Hammer-Betting Network on Rapposola.
Join by Johnny for Bedstamp.
How goes?
Pretty good.
Getting fired up for your college football.
I will say I am sick of having no football on.
As is everyone in the betting community,
let's go. It's about time.
I agree with you 100%.
I don't originate my own college football,
but I have access to some stuff,
and I bet college football.
I just like that football's back.
And by the way, no disrespect to the Canadian football league.
But there's only a limited amount of CFL games every week, right?
Even with the buy weeks, sometimes there's weeks or three games.
Like, I want to get into it now.
So, I'm excited for it.
But we got 115, though.
Yeah. To keep the tradition.
Ryan gets laugh.
Yeah, gets laugh.
Ryan gets laugh, by the way,
I'm in no position to talk about anyone's hair.
I will say, but Ryan gets laugh,
went from like full head of hair to like, you know, ball and messier.
He went mark messier in like in the span of maybe,
I've never seen a transformation that quick.
I don't know what it was.
Just genetics, probably.
Yeah, it is.
It is just a helmet of it.
It is what is patty my home's obviously.
We got my homes.
We got Brandon Marshall.
Brandon Marshall.
That's a good one.
Michael Krabtree back in the day.
Sorry.
I asked for a fever.
Yeah, sorry, I asked for a fever.
I loved seeing Patrick Mahomes on, on quarterbacks.
I love that show.
It's great.
I know some people are giving, like, to each their own.
You're entitled to your own opinion.
I'd like to behind the scenes stuff with quarterbacks.
What I've learned though is that 50% of what these guys do every week
is just like physio.
Just pure like pain management.
It's great.
You know, you see stuff in the games.
Kirk Cousins takes a big hit.
He's rolling around on the ground.
You don't really understand the extent of the hit.
And how that weighs on him for the entire season as it goes on.
But it's, it's pretty crazy.
And we can't move on without mentioning this guy.
Just because MVP, whatever.
Say what you want.
Nicola Yokic.
Also, I was going to say Vince Carter.
VC.
Oh my goodness.
We almost miss VC.
VC.
Holy.
It's all.
Thank you, Zach.
It's overlaid.
It's overlaid.
All right.
Speaking of MVP's pinnacle sportsbook.
Is the MVP of sportsbooks in Ontario?
You can now find them.
And you can find out what professional
betters have known for decades.
pinnacle is where the best betters play.
You must be 19 plus.
Please play responsibly not available to those in the US.
And obviously college football season approaching.
Be candid with the audience.
pinnacle going to have some of the best lines of any sportsbook in Ontario
in market.
If you're serious about getting better as a college football better,
you got a line shop plain and simple.
There's like no ifs ends or buts.
If you're betting with one sportsbook,
you're doing it wrong.
You want to select a bunch of them.
And make sure pinnacle is one of those sportsbooks
because you are often going to find the best line there.
Guaranteed, you need, you need, you need pinnacle
in your suite of sportsbooks for this college football season.
If you are in anywhere in the United States in Canada,
hit up www.betstamp.app slash circles off.
Go to that landing page.
You can sign up for any sportsbook there within the regulated space.
There's a ton of different bonus offers now that it's college football season.
In addition to that, you want to make sure you're line shopping as Rob,
mention get the best price.
But with like regardless of that,
it also does help support the show.
So please hit the like, subscribe button as we always do.
But if you're signing up for a new sportsbook,
if you're in Ontario, we couldn't recommend pinnacle more.
Go ahead and sign up at pinnacle if you're in Canada.
If you are in the United States,
betstamp.app slash circles off and pick a book that has good college football lines in your state.
With that being said, we got an amazing guest today.
We're going to talk some college football.
We're even going to potentially give out a pick,
which is not, which is not normal for circles on uncommon, uncommon.
But with that, here we go.
We're now joined by one of the sharpest college football betters on the planet.
You can follow them on Twitter or X, whatever you want to call it now,
at Brad Power 7.
He's part of the Bet the Board podcast with Todd Furman and Payne Insider.
You've seen him on covers before doing release shows.
And also part of the hammer betting network on hit the books with Joey Canish every Monday and
Friday throughout the college football season.
If you're not subscribed to hit the books, make sure you check them out on YouTube,
hit that subscribe button, check out their content.
Brad Power now joins us on circles off.
How's it going, Brad?
It's going well.
Thanks for having me, guys.
Look forward to this.
Yeah, no problem at all.
Obviously, college football coming up with week zero next week.
Wanted to have you on, give some insight into your process and how you've been so successful
as a college football better.
But before we get into that, let's get into the backstory a little bit.
I learn more and more about you every time I listen to hit the books,
or even when we have some off-air conversations.
I think last time I talked to you, you told me you grew up on a farm,
and you're up at five a.m. every single day.
But I'm very interested in your personal background and how guy growing up on the farm
living that type of life got involved in sports betting.
Yeah, so not a very usual track.
I mean, I've listened to your podcast several times and people are almost born into it.
I want to say that they're dad or an uncle or whatever, really in the gambling and whatnot,
and they just generally took interest.
Not the case with me.
I mean, I don't know anybody in my personal family.
Didn't even know barely any friends that were into the betting.
What we were into as a family was college football hardcore.
I mean, it was Notre Dame season tickets or a family vacation in Florida,
and we had to decide, and we voted Notre Dame football season tickets.
That's amazing.
It was mainly in my youth.
I mean, football, and it just generally progressed
to where the money is, and we know where the money is.
It's more the betting side, and just also to personally say,
it's also where I think the sharper people are.
I mean, you flip on ESPN or any of the networks,
or anybody just general football talk.
I think it's low IQ, the highest IQ for the most part.
Obviously, our industry doesn't account for everybody,
but I would say when we're talking football and really dive in deep diving,
that the gambling space just intrigued me.
So, after college, I was doing radio in Toledo.
Wasn't much money.
I originally wanted to be a print journalist,
be a calmness or an editor.
That was dying at the time, 20 years ago.
You could see that going.
I didn't like TV because I thought the people were fake.
So I did radio for like six months, had my own show, sold my own ads.
Said, forget this, there's no money in this.
And got hired at PhilSteel Publications.
I just wanted, I thought I was working on a magazine.
I just thought I was generally just working on college football year-round,
and I got introduced to the betting side.
I found out what paid for that magazine and that being North Coast sports.
So, a way we went, learned how to handicap,
learn how to market, tout, sort of speak,
didn't learn betting until I moved here,
but that's what got me in the start of like 15 years ago working with PhilSteel.
So Brad, first off, thanks for coming on.
It's a pleasure to have you on.
Anyone that's listening to the Hit the Books channel,
or seeing on any other piece of media,
knows that you can talk your ass off about college football,
all day, any team, whatever it might be.
But obviously knowing college football as a fan
does not necessarily relate to being in it as a better,
right, which you have also been known to do.
So what we wanted to ask here, obviously,
is a gambling podcast.
You know, what sets you aside?
Is it just a football knowledge?
Is there anything else like, you know,
what sets you aside specifically as a pure better?
That's a great question.
I would say, I'm not this sharpest tool in the shed.
I'll put it that way,
but I obviously don't have the biggest bankroll.
But what allows me to get a lot of closing line value,
what allows me to power rate teams,
probably as good as anybody, I would say,
at least, you know, at all 133 plus the FCS.
I encompass everything.
I mean, I have my own model,
but it's not, I don't strictly go off my model.
I know all the players,
and I don't mean football players.
I'm talking about the market influencers.
When a line moves, 90% of the time,
I know why that line moved.
I know, you know, what, you know,
a right, if it's a right angle or somebody else,
I know who made that bet.
I know why that line moved.
If it's an injury, generally speaking,
I know why that moved.
So, and, you know, I know how much
a certain player is worth.
I know it's speaking in generalities,
but I think in college football,
it's not the NFL.
It's not like some, you know, relatively set number.
How much is Aaron Rodgers' worth?
I'm not sure that the market really understands
what the two-lane quarterback is worth on a game in
and game out and year in and year out basis.
So, the fact that I work on it year-round
and specialize in it also probably makes me a little unique.
I might jump from sport to sport for the most part.
Doesn't mean I'm not going to bet a little bit basketball.
Doesn't mean I'm not betting a little NFL,
but I mean, all 12 months out of the year,
there's not a day that goes by where I'm not looking
at something college football related.
So, in regards to, I think that's a really good question
in terms of what sets you apart
and where you think your edge comes from,
if you had to pick one of the two
that you think is a greater contributor to your edge,
would it be your commitment to following college football
and knowing all these players year-round
or is it your ability to apply maybe
to differentiate yourself from others
in the way that you can evaluate players?
Like, is it the commitment to the craft
and the amount of time and hours you actually put in
because we've had Eddie Wells on this podcast before
and he showed us binder upon binder
that he's just writing notes and offseason
and that's a time commitment.
Is it that or is it your ability to think differently
from people and just process things in a different way?
It's a really good question.
It's a time commitment.
What allows me to think differently
and on the fly when I'm betting,
making a ton of bets and just can,
you know, off top of my head come up with a power rating
and just know these teams,
no matter who's playing one another,
is the time commitment, the 12-month-a-year process
to die these teams year-round.
I mean, if I don't do that,
I can't do what I do on a day and a day
out basis during this season.
I'm just a simple Canadian boy here.
And months ago, I think you were attending
some like off-season college football games
that I didn't even know existed
and I'm like, holy jeez, who is this guy?
What a commitment to the craft to be able to do this.
Out of curiosity, Brad, you've been doing this
a long time now.
There's evolutions in the sports betting space.
I mention Eddie Wells because I highly respect him
and I think a lot of people highly respect him
but his process is pretty much all manual, right?
I mean, he admits to this himself, he'll tweet about it.
How much of your process is manual versus automated?
And is there a reason that it's one way or another,
like is there just a certain comfort in your routine now
that you wouldn't want to change that?
Yeah, another really good question.
I would say 70% manual still,
but just how I learn is by doing,
if I'm just scraping data,
I don't know the interest, you know, the ins and outs.
And you know, the sort of manual adjustments
that you have to make once the market gets liquid in October
and you really have to understand it.
I just, if I didn't do it manually,
I'm not sure that I'd have the same knowledge base.
I just don't.
Now I respect the people that can just, you know,
that they have their model, they trust their numbers,
that you know, just, you know, scrape the data
and away they go, but I just think,
I think you could have done that maybe 10 years ago
and been fine.
And I just think there's so many moving parts
now in college football.
I just say the roster.
I mean, yes, certainly it overturned 20%, 25%
over throughout much of college football history.
Now 35%, 40%.
And that's a conservative estimate.
You have 35% to 40% of an entirely different roster
than what you had just the year before.
So I think you still have to manually dive in
in these teams to really have a grasp on it,
to make 300 bets before July.
You got it, there's got to be some manual.
You're not scraping, you know, play by play that on that.
Are you betting any other sports seriously?
No, no, semi seriously, maybe the NFL,
but I mean, not offseason during the season, yeah,
but not offseason.
So yeah, I mean, it comes with, I better know my numbers
because it's my whole, I can't afford to have, you know,
oh, I had a losing college football season.
Well, that meant I had a losing freaking year.
So I mean, it puts added pressure that I got to win
every single year.
Yeah, that's what I was going to ask.
It's tough when you don't spread it around with other sports.
So you have basically, you know, a finite amount,
a few months where you got to grind it all out
and make a profit.
Can imagine that obviously might be stressful.
One thing was going to ask is, since you are considered
like an originator in the space,
are you ever worried that, you know, that edge may be eroded
and like you won't necessarily know that it's eroded
because you're, you're doing all this media stuff.
You're giving out picks.
You're getting closing line value on the majority
of the bundle.
Is this ever where you at all?
Yeah, it certainly does.
I mean, and I've, it hasn't worn me until probably
the last couple of years.
I, you know, maybe, you know, I'm sure somebody
listen to this, always ratten on himself.
He, you know, he must not have been that sharp.
I didn't move markets that much to the last couple of years.
Now, I move markets and I wonder, hey, am I creating
my own CLV, not only because I'm betting it,
but my following is bigger.
People are reacting.
I mean, they're not waiting until waking up on game day
and betting my stuff.
They're betting it within five minutes.
Am I just creating this?
I mean, I have some a little bit more respect
in the marketplace.
You know, people maybe are a little cautious
to, you know, fate a guy like me now
where they didn't care who the hell I was
even a couple of years ago.
Yeah, I mean, I haven't been there yet
where it's affected the results yet, but who knows?
I mean, I'm not going to sit here blindly and say
that it's not going to get to the point
where I have to question, hey, I can get
to my numbers.
I can bet them, but I'm moving it so much
that my following just can't get to anything.
So then I have to question my whole company
to be honest with you.
Yeah, I want to hone in on you saying that, you know,
questioning whether or not there are times
where you're creating your own CLV.
Because I've gone through a very similar experience
in the past with betting hockey before,
where there's just not a lot of people
that are originating hockey.
And whenever I would send out a bet,
everyone would bet it.
And I would inevitably, like any sports better,
go on losing streaks, where my metrics look great.
I'm beating the closing line, you know, 95% of the time,
if not more, getting huge CLV, but I'm losing
for a prolonged stretch, whether that's a month
or a month and a half or two months.
And that personally really weighed on me
because I had no idea of knowing
whether my edge was gone or this was just like an unlucky period.
And I wonder how you deal with losing stretches
because I've actually seen you post a Twitter before X now,
whatever, in the past, where, you know,
you would have had a week with insane closing line value,
like numbers that are unheard of,
but you finished in the red.
Does that type of stuff weigh on you
and do you ever question yourself
when you do have one of those stretches?
It hasn't been a long enough period.
I've certainly had some bad weeks.
And let me profess by saying this,
like I haven't really been a sickened.
I would, you know, everyone uses professional better.
I cringed at it when I was labeled at it,
even three, four years ago.
I wouldn't consider myself a pro veteran
until last couple of years, where, you know,
if I didn't do anything else other than bet college football,
could I make a living?
That's how I identify it as and make a decent living.
Last two years, yes.
So I haven't had, it's a short sample size two years.
I haven't had like a six week period
where it just is gone completely haywire,
and I haven't won.
Certainly I've had some losing weeks,
so I'm not sure how I would handle that, Rob.
I can tell you personally, individual plays, bets, weeks.
I handle a lot better than what I did even three, four years ago.
I mean, I was kind of a hothead.
I used to, you know, get visibly frustrated, frustrated,
at certain results, but now I don't let it bother me as much.
I say that, but, you know, I did let my college basketball betting
affect me a little bit, wasn't a good month, was in the red,
where I budgeted to be in the black,
significantly in the black.
The CLV was all there.
I shouldn't be affecting a college basketball market.
I'm not known as a college basketball ball guy.
That affected me this past, you know, March, to say the least.
Well, we're all human.
I mean, it happens at the end of the day.
When you get into the state of being a pro better,
where the majority of your income is coming from actually betting
and not, you know, selling things on the side or whatever,
it's challenging whenever you lose.
I think people inherently just get frustrated and that's fair.
I mean, that's their livelihood that they're talking about, right?
So I think that people can get irrational in that moment,
but you talk about the college basketball stuff.
And I asked you earlier, you know, about your edge in college football
and admittedly you said a lot of it is just the amount of time
that you're spending and putting into it.
Do you think your approach to betting college football
only works for that particular sport?
Like let's say you grew up a college basketball fan
or an NBA fan or NFL fan instead of, you know,
Notre Dame football fan.
Do you think you could have the same level of success
doing what you're doing now if you had applied it to a different sport?
Yeah, I do particularly college basketball.
I think college basketball generally speaking is easier to be less liquid
than even college football.
So if I wanted to do the exact same process for college basketball,
I mean, I certainly think I would be successful doing that
because I mean, a lot of people just aren't doing that, you know,
and people ask me, well, what do you recommend?
I'm new to sports betting, what do you recommend that I do?
A lot of times I answer, hey, I mean, do you mind,
do you watch college basketball?
Well, okay, yeah, a little bit.
Just pick a few conferences in college basketball.
We got a small budget and bank rolls, not that big of a deal to you.
Pick a, you know, the Ohio Valley Conference in college basketball,
a few others, bet that.
I mean, if you're not looking to get down $2,000 a game,
if a hundred bucks or 200 bucks is a fair bet for you,
I think that's the easiest market to beat,
especially in November and December,
when everybody like you and myself are still focused on college football and the NFL.
Yeah, I agree with that because most people's argument
to why not to bet college basketball at the bigger levels is like,
oh, it's not that liquid.
Even if I do crush an edge there,
I'm not going to make that much money.
But as you mentioned there, Brad,
like if you're a hundred dollar better looking to originate,
like you're going to have no issues getting down,
even if you're betting, even if you're betting 2,000 a game,
you can still shop around enough books that they'll probably take action
that will sum to two grand a game.
But even 500, let's say, like you're crushing that market
and focusing on one specific conference, as you mentioned,
is probably quite smart because you can actually stay up to day
with all the news and injuries.
Yeah, it's specialization in a sense, right?
I mean, everyone wants to have access to 150 college basketball games
to bet on a Saturday college basketball slate.
But how many people are going to actually be in tune
with all those teams that are playing all those games?
I mean, sure, you can put out a number on them.
But I do think that there is something to specialization,
especially when you have all these teams just being able
to hone in on something.
And if you really understand those teams
or pick up on something, that somebody running a season-long model
is not going to pick up on.
I think that just gives you a big advantage there.
I think it's also easier because there's more games.
If you're betting and then just following a small market,
college football, even if you're following really small conferences
and teams that aren't as well-known info is on out there,
they're still only playing one time per week.
So you get info, great.
You just got a great bet.
But if you have, if you can compound this basically
where you're playing every couple of days in college basketball,
it's a lot easier as well to win.
It's a pretty simple size.
Yep, totally agree with that.
Brad, as one of the foremost college football betting authorities
out there right now, curious.
I mean, you're obviously very confident in what you do.
But are there times where you don't necessarily
trust your numbers or your intuition?
So I'll give you an example.
But let's say, I don't know, you're high on a team in market.
And you're continuously betting them for two or three weeks,
but you're noticing that there is market resistance.
And the number always gets played back at you.
How confident are you enough in what you are doing
where you can ignore that?
Or do you take note of that and be like,
hey, maybe I'm missing something here.
I'm going to dig deeper into this team.
How do you proceed with a situation like that?
Now, they're really good question.
So Brad's been saying that after every question.
I'll call him out, man.
I asked the first one, and then Brad was like,
I know I do a lot of media, and I don't,
I mean, anybody can ask questions,
but everyone's focused on the now.
They're focused on the picks and not the process.
I asked the first one, and then Brad's like,
really good question.
And I was like, wow, I was on top of the world.
I felt like a million bucks.
And then he's been saying after every single one,
I'm like, all right.
So I just got, I got got.
But you had me feeling good for a second, Brad.
Well, he does work with me.
Well, I'm here to tell you that I don't say that
in most shows that I do.
OK, good.
That's what I was going to say.
He works at Joey Connish on a weekly basis.
He's not good to working, you know,
used to working with good media personnel.
He's got to deal with the dredges of,
I'm not getting that work uncle.
All right, started to cut you off, Brad,
but you did have me on a high there for a bit.
Yeah, so it's obviously case by case basis.
So it depends on what time in the season is.
Obviously, I'm going to be more alert at this time in the year,
because I mean, even a guy like myself that
it felt like he's, you know, as much time as anybody.
Maybe somebody knows something I don't at this point.
I am, it's nobody seen it.
I mean, you can ask coaches, they don't,
you can ask them, well, I don't really fully 100% know until,
I see how these guys perform actually on the field.
Specific to gambling depends on who is coming from.
Where's the resistance coming from?
That's why I like knowing the players,
the market influencers.
I mean, obviously, I'm going to respect
a right-angle sports because of their long-term winning.
If they're releasing opposite of me
and on a consistent basis, then I got a question myself.
I mean, what's going on here?
If it's, you know, I mean, let's be honest.
I mean, you know, unlike five, six years ago,
Barney at the bar and the guys that come in and bet on game day
can influence a market even in college football.
So is it moving against me on game day?
And I perceive it to be, hey, that's the, you know,
the two or three most popular public sort of plays
for that particular day, then I'm not going to respect it as much.
But I can tell you, I don't,
on an individual game, weak basis, whatever.
I mean, I'll go with my number.
When it lines up, weak after, weak, hey,
I am missing something with this team,
whether it's my power rating.
I'm not getting closing line value like I should.
That if it happens two weeks in a row,
then I'm taking no.
And I'm, you know, not as likely to bet
on that team for the future week until I understand
why this money is going against me.
In terms of, you know, you mentioning a couple times now,
you know, potentially right-angle sports
is on the opposite side of you or whoever.
When the screen moves or you see a number move,
how do you personally know who's betting it?
Is this, you know, are you subscribed to services
that move numbers?
Is the information being fed to you specifically
by people within other groups?
Do you do any cross betting with other groups?
I'm just curious because a lot of people, you know,
they're trying, they're staring at an odd screen all day.
They're trying to figure out whether this is a real move,
a fake move, but they don't really have any intuition
or understanding of who's betting what.
Where do you get that understanding from?
Yeah.
So it's all the above, you know,
depends on my personal relationship with,
or lack thereof with that particular service or whatnot.
A lot of times I exchange info.
They like my info.
I like their info.
We exchange.
Sometimes I buy their service.
Yeah, I'm not opposed to if you respect this person,
you had the bank role to do it.
It's not impacting your bank role whatsoever.
I want the information.
I want to know why certain stuff's moving.
So I'll actually physically buy some people out there.
Few and far between, but they're certainly out there.
And then, you know, I'm betting, you know,
that somebody will give me a tip, you know, on the side.
And, hey, we'll go at a certain time
and we just bet together.
We act like our own little mini-send-a-kit on certain stuff.
But mainly, it's mainly, I would say, Rob,
just exchanging info.
I'll get, you know, you get my info and picks,
and I get yours.
I know, that's how we just move.
So with access to this information,
I want to talk just a little bit about bet timing as well.
And how much of your, let's say, weekly process,
or let's say like each individual bet you make,
are you actually considering the timing of the bet
all that much, or is it more so, okay,
this is now in range, I'm going to bet it.
Do you ever have conversations with yourself of like,
okay, this is now in range, but I think X, Y, and Z
actually might push this number out even further.
I might wait on it to get a better number down the road.
How much of the timing of the bet goes
into your actual consideration for making that bet?
Yeah, I mean, it goes in a lot.
I mean, I got to think about that when I'm betting
on these circuit openers.
Do I fire right now?
Is that going to be the best number I'm going to see all week?
And a lot of my bets, you know,
I'm just being perfectly frank.
Maybe I don't have that big of a power rating's difference.
Maybe it's a half point.
But if I anticipate that, you know,
if it's around a key number, 3, 7, and what you name it,
it's a popular team that I just know I'm not going to see it.
Do I think I have that big of an edge?
No, but I think it's going to,
I'm 90 plus percent certain it's going to move.
And I just fire immediately about, you know,
it is what it is.
Now, for the course of the week,
I mean, I can, I wouldn't say I talk myself into it,
but it really depends on the number.
And again, I know people don't,
it's a less liquid market than the NFL,
but I mean, getting that seven and a half,
when you have 20-something outs,
and you know, hey, that's not going to last.
I mean, there's just some intuition there that,
when you follow the mark as long as I have,
I mean, I don't know how to break it down.
Like, most of my betting is Sunday,
Monday, Tuesday, less bets at the end of the week,
but I'm betting, I'm making bets every day of the week
during football.
So let's get into that.
Yeah, what does a regular week look like during CFP?
I would say the most important part of my process
is probably start Saturday night,
box score identification.
I just go through every single day on box score.
I know it's a lot of work, but it's not work to me.
Where did I learn, you know, not the betting side,
but the handicapping, power rating side,
you know, what did I, you know, learn to look for
in a box score?
I'll feel still taught me some stuff to look at.
So Saturday night, early Sunday morning,
I just go through every box score, look for injuries.
You know, if I see two quarterbacks played,
maybe I didn't catch the game.
Why did two quarterbacks play was a blowout
or this guy get hurt?
And do I anticipate a circuit opener
or, you know, even a Monday opener?
Will they have that information readily available to them?
I mean, but just going through that
and to be on, you know, my entire process,
I like writing down a side and total off the top of my head.
I'll give myself 20 seconds, 30 seconds.
I'll go through the whole card.
This is what I make the number, side or total.
And then I go to my, you know, power ratings,
my model sort of speak.
And then what does that spit out?
The number should be, so I compare the two.
And I know you guys are betting NFL
or focused on everything there.
I, my Sunday morning is, you know, college football still.
I mean, I have my NFL bets in.
If something late breaking thing
that I have to get off of something,
certainly I'll take part in a few NFL bets,
but it's mainly just getting ready for,
you know, what circuit does on Sunday morning here in Vegas
at 11 a.m., Pacific time.
Then at that point is just, you know,
collecting more and more information throughout the week.
I mean, I have my 40, 50 bets right off the top there.
And then a way we go, I mean, I bet, you know,
right angle releases on Monday.
Other people I respect throughout the week
where I know I'm going to get closing line value off of that.
I'm betting their stuff, moving their stuff,
trying to get off of stuff that I perceive to be not so good.
I mean, that's, it's, you know,
a lot of people like what we do and it sounds grand,
but it's mainly sitting in front of a damn freaking screen.
For all day, seven days a week, that's all it is.
Or reading a Twitter, a Twitter, you know,
to do, I don't even know what they call it now,
you know, when you have your list and whatnot.
So it's just reading that and reading an odd screen.
That's mainly what I do.
Yep, on top of that, I mean,
how much actual college football
are you watching over the course of the week?
And when I say watching, you know,
there's different levels of watching, right?
Like they're sitting down on the coach
and watching a game start to finish
and really breaking it down.
There's being at your computer
and having a couple games up on the screen in the background
where a big play happens and you look up
and you kind of, what's your actual watching
like over the course of the week?
And I mean, if you are watching a ton of college football,
do you think that actually helps you
or aids you in what you're doing?
It's a really good question.
And I know there's, you know, people say,
you don't have to watch anything,
you don't have to know any players.
I'm kind of in between on that.
Sometimes I think that there's,
you got to watch yourself.
There's paralysis by overanalysis.
You know, during a college football Saturday,
certainly I have my five TVs up.
I'm looking for injuries.
If there's, look, I'm a college football fan too.
If there's a freaking Alabama's playing Texas,
I'm watching Alabama Texas game.
If, you know, a lot of times I'm looking
for the next week.
Okay, I think I want to bet this team
for the upcoming week number dependent, obviously.
But, you know, I'll get a quick look
at this week's game.
You know, what's going on with this team?
So a lot of times I don't like watching
my biggest bets of the week's sort of speak
because I just want to remove all the emotional aspect
out of it.
Don't care, out of sight, out of mind.
So I would say, you know,
tunely watched games like really paying attention
play by play.
Three, four games on Saturday probably
and probably a game or two each day.
I like the cut ups.
I'm not saying I'm sitting there
to the three and a half hour TV broadcast.
I like when the commercials are cut.
I like what big 10 network,
pack 12 network.
Yeah, I mean, you go watch the whole game in 42 minutes.
They just go play, play, play.
A lot of times I'll jump into the highlights, Rob.
You know, what, what the hell happened with this game?
You know, was there a turning point?
A significant penalty changed.
I mean, college football is a little bit different
in the NFL.
There's a lot more emotional to it or meaning like,
I mean, one play and just I watch college football
enough throughout my life.
One play before the half,
whether it's a penalty, a touchdown called back,
you know, an interception or turnover.
I just, I've seen momentum swings in college football,
impact that game so much more than the NFL.
So I want to identify that.
What the hell happened?
I'm with you on that one.
I can't even tell you how many conversations I've had
with other people before where I bring up
just a random play that happened in a football game
where I'm like, if this didn't happen,
like the bet is completely different.
Whether it's, I mean, listen, it balances out over,
I firmly believe this stuff balances out over time, right?
Variants and sports is always going to exist.
But there'll be a time where like,
a ref misses a blatant call on a, on a third down
or something and that impacts everything after the fact.
Like the entire game would have been different.
And I'm with you on that one in terms of, you know,
picking up on that stuff and watching games.
A lot of that's never going to be reflected
in a box score.
You can just say, so and so got a,
got a raw deal this game.
Like they played way better, deserved to win.
But there was some fluky things working against them.
Which, you know, you can track luck in sports and whatever.
But there's just certain things that I think you gain
from watching sports that, you know, the numbers guys,
and I consider myself a numbers guy as well,
are just going to miss sometimes
because they don't have that, that, you know,
that level of understanding of it.
But people go crazy on Twitter and then like in anything,
saying like, oh, you can't win if you watch the games.
But you actually can.
Like I've even changed my stance on this over the years.
You could win at betting just from watching the games.
You just have to watch for the right things
and watch the right games.
So like to say you can win and then the game you're watching
is like you're mentioning Alabama, Texas.
Like that's going to be extremely difficult.
But you got to look like I was shocked to learn the viewership,
like nationwide viewership on some of these college games
that might be on like ESPN plus or whatever.
It's like, it's shockingly low for what I thought,
for what I thought how many people would be watching
those live.
And there's books are still offering live bets on them.
So it's almost actually beneficial to be like, okay,
what are the lowest market teams
that are going to get the least amount of watches?
Go watch those ones and live better.
Yeah, and a lot of this too, like this,
I love spankies, a friend of mine,
I had to blast that bet bash,
but a lot of this stems from different betting styles as well.
Like this kind of originated with spanky saying,
I don't watch any games, right?
I can't even...
His style, you don't need to watch things.
Of course, if you're betting the way that he bets,
you don't need to know who the quarterbacks in the NFL are.
Like that's not a factor that's needed.
But if you are originating and you're betting bottom up
and you're creating numbers on teams
and you're competing against other people in market,
I do think that there's an inherent advantage
in watching and picking up on stuff
or just being able to dig deeper into something.
I'm sure there's be originators like Rufus,
for example, that would disagree with that.
But personally, Brad, I've always felt like there's just
something there where if you're looking for the right things,
like Johnny said, there's like a little edge to be gained
that over other people.
But it is definitely like a declining diminishing returns,
principle, in the sense that you're not going to be able to do this
or mean to the same extent next year
and the year after in five and 10 and 20 years.
So like, I'm not saying that this is like a strategy
that I would recommend to people moving forward.
It's definitely not, but like I've changed my sense,
I've come around on this, like there is absolutely ways
to beat even major market sports from watching the games,
but the difficulty is high.
But on the lower, lower end, like it's actually not
even that difficult at this exact point in time.
Could change in a few years.
It's a slippery slope because most recreational bettors
will think that they can beat sports
because they watch the games.
And they're like, ah, I watch a ton of NBA.
I know the players inside and out,
but that does not translate into being able to form a number
on an NBA game and doesn't translate into understanding
the betting market.
So I'm not suggesting that anyone out there
can just watch games all of a sudden
they're going to be Billy Walters.
Like that's not going to happen.
But if you already have a grasp of how betting markets work
and you already have an ability to come up
with a number on a game, I think that this just gives you
a little bit of an extra advantage, so to speak.
When they say they're watching games,
the games they're watching is like USU talk
and like the main games that are on for the Thursday night NBA.
That no one actually, everyone's watching those games.
You got to be like, you got to be watching,
I will even say this, like you got to be watching like
Bowling Green, but even Bowling Green is actually pretty good.
Like that's even a little bit too much.
Like you got to go.
Yeah, people are watching the Men's Week match games.
Yeah, you got to go, you got to go way lower than that.
I think another thing and sorry to derail here,
but this is a passionate subject for me.
But I think a lot of people often conflate fantasy as well
with, you know, betting.
And somebody's a great fantasy player for them in the NFL or NBA,
but it's not necessarily worth that up much
from a betting perspective, right?
Like a running back.
How many times do you watch NFL countdown on Sunday morning
and a running back is like a late scratch?
And you're going to hear the entire panel talk
about how this is like a massive loss for the team
and the betting market doesn't move, right?
It's that type of stuff.
So not everyone can just watch and be able to bet.
But I think they're talking about Tony Pollard being out,
having a big loss for the Cowboys two years ago
and he's getting like, was averaging eight touches a game.
Max, exactly, right?
All right, Brad, we'll get back into it here.
But obviously you have a huge commitment to your craft.
I'm wondering if you're ever able to shut it off at all.
So we were at bet bash last week.
I was expecting to see my buddy Hitman there, not there.
Message them up.
He's like, Rob, I literally can't get away from my desk
during NFL preseason because this is a massive edge
for me.
There's people that I know that literally
just will not take time off over the course of the year.
And it's like, I'm working hard for the next five years
of my life because that's going to lead me
to take time off down the road.
I'm curious where you stand.
Is this a year round process for you,
like when the national championship game is over,
do you sit back and relax or is it already on to next year
already started to grind?
Yeah, it's already on to the next.
It's just who I am as a human being, though.
I'm not going to sit here and say, oh, it's a grind and stuff.
I mean, it is a certain extent, but I like it.
I enjoy it.
I like looking.
I mean, college football is almost like European soccer.
I mean, if you're fanatical in some aspects
when it comes to college football,
and I guess that's where I get it from.
It's from my youth where, man, I'm already looking forward to it.
I mean, the way that it's scheduled now,
I mean, you know this in the NFL.
It's year round.
I mean, you got year round discussions.
I mean, college football right after the season's over,
you're talking recruiting.
And when recruiting's over, spring practice is starting.
I'm a big spring practice guy.
I mean, people say they're worthless.
I'm just, I'm just looking at players.
I'm not, you know, looking, oh, mama changed my, you know,
power rating on a team four points
because I watched your spring game.
I'm just looking who can play and not always, you know,
necessarily looking for this upcoming season.
I'm looking for a couple of seasons down the road.
How good these players are, particularly quarterbacks.
So that April and May, well, guess what's in May?
They open up win totals for every team.
I'm not talking Alabama, Ohio State.
We're in the past, you know, you get 20 win totals
in the fourth of July weekend and some game in the years.
I'm talking every team's available in May to bet on game,
you know, individual games, week one season win totals.
You name it.
I got to be ready.
So the only way to be ready in May is to start this baby
up, you know, in February.
I don't take, there's no vacations here.
If you're kind of vacation, believe it or not,
it's actually probably July.
This is then the markets get a little bit more liquid.
There's not much new stuff for releasing.
That's the time to break away for a couple of weeks.
There you go.
So Brad, I want to put you on the spot a little bit here.
Bring it, man.
I was thought for those who don't know anything grillies,
nothing like that.
Okay, so for those who don't know,
Brad is a part of the hammer betting network.
I need Rob's help here with the schedule,
but you do host, hit the books during the college football season.
What days are you looking at here?
Monday and Friday, 5 p.m. Eastern time.
Monday and Friday, 5 p.m. on the nose.
Everybody's teaming.
Well, not on the nose because somebody's
got to get Joey Konish, like a cloth or something.
He's got to get his Diet Coke and his coffee.
Yeah, I joke about all the time.
Joey Konish thinks he's like Jim Roman is prime basically now.
And everyone's got to wait around for him.
Poor Brad had to wait, you know, 15 minutes
for filming a couple of weeks back.
But yeah, so as close to 5 p.m. Eastern time as possible,
and if it starts a little bit late,
it's because you know who it was.
So Brad, on that show, you and Uncle Kay,
you do actually give out, you give the picks.
You give the goods, you actually give out the picks
that people can bet on a weekly basis, right?
Those picks right there, we're gonna tease those.
You can go find those during the season,
those for the regular games.
What I want right now and put on the spot,
give us a sure fire, lock of the week, undeniable,
can't lose parlay.
Now, give us a futures bet that is undeniable right now.
What's your best value bet we got right now?
Are you being serious?
Yeah, that's what I'm saying.
I'm putting you on the spot, you said bring it.
Oh, I thought it was gonna be like, you know,
white tout and stuff like that.
That's coming next.
I'm gonna get to that.
No, I don't care about that.
Give me a pick.
It's pretty liquid at this point.
I mean, shit's moved to be perfecting honest with you.
We just taped the SEC preview.
And just to put in perspective,
we got like five win total.
I still thought we're holding it to some value
of their positive EV.
But you're laying like minus 150.
So I mean, Mississippi State, under season went total,
under minus one six, under six and a half, minus 160.
That was my favorite SEC bet that we taped
and recorded yesterday.
Mississippi.
That locked, though.
Yeah, you know, just to put in perspective,
you know, Rob asked me earlier, do you ever get frustrated?
I had what you talked about closing line value.
I had won a game in the year with 24 and a half points last year.
I bet LSU plus 14 and a half against Texas A&M.
It was a week 12 game, but I bet it obviously in July.
They closed the 10 point favorite.
I got 24 and a half points in my pocket.
I'm obviously, extremely, should be a winner there.
Comes down to some reason.
They're getting blown out, LSU 3817.
Getting crushed.
They score a touchdown.
They go for two and they don't get it.
They lose by 15 freaking points as a 10 point favorite.
I got plus 14 and a half in my pocket.
So when people tell me, and I know you guys are joking,
there's some sarcasm here.
But when people tell me that there's a lot,
there are no freaking line.
And there's just not.
I mean, 24 and a half points, fog and loser.
Sorry, excuse my French.
No, I obviously, I'm joking when I say that.
I like to play on the satire of a lot of the people
in the space who actually do believe like they talk like that.
You know what I mean?
Like give me a stone cold lock, but we can't lose.
No miss money back guarantee.
I was told when I was younger that every lock has a key.
And it's stuck with me forever.
And you know, it's, I do like to make the jokes,
but we should clarify to the audience
who hasn't been with us forever.
A lot of times it is just sarcasm here
in terms of like the lock of the week discussion.
It's not a real thing.
Nice, okay.
So we're going to go ahead and pencil that pick in.
We haven't given out many picks on this show to be honest.
We're going to have to create a circles off bet stamp account
for all the things that we have.
There may be like 10 picks in the history of this show.
Max, yeah.
Probably honestly even less.
Well, we did the one super bowl spett.
Yeah, no, if you, if you don't, yeah, if you don't include that,
then this is probably one of three picks maybe.
Yeah, that's probably what it is.
So we're going to close off here soon.
Brad by no rob wanted to ask you about the touting stuff.
So we'll let him fire that in.
It's important.
It's not going to be for me.
Listen, I can't let Brad off the hook
because he's part of the hammer.
It's important for us to ask the questions
that people want to hear.
And I think one of the criticisms of you
from anyone who would criticize is that you're a pickseller.
And there's obviously a lot of stuff out there
about if Brad is so good at betting games
and why is he selling picks.
Can you walk us through your decision
to continue selling picks even though you're a successful better?
And on top of that, does it bother you at all
that there's a segment of the population
that will always think less of you
because of that decision?
Yeah.
So I first start off wise.
I did it at the start.
I mean, call it naive.
I didn't know that there's such a negative connotation.
Keep in mind, my first job in the industry.
I mean, if you ask, this is how I didn't,
this is bottom level knowledge of the industry
I had when I started with Phil Steele.
If you asked me what 110 was, I wouldn't have known.
If you asked me what the big was, the bigger ish,
I would have thought it was a salad dressing.
I had no idea.
I mean, I basically started when they gave me the information.
I thought that's how, you know,
that's what are you doing in this industry, you know,
in your market, you give out, you know,
you do your handicap and you have your picks,
you have your bets, you give them out the clients.
That's just how it works.
I didn't know there was a lot of negativity towards it
until I started working for RJ Bell
at pregame here in Vegas and then I was like, holy shit.
I mean, wow, I didn't know people like me
where that thought of negatively.
So why originally started it out on my own?
Didn't have the bank role.
Didn't want to work a nine to five.
Thought I could help people, if not just the picks,
but I mean, thought at least that the, you know,
I can concise some data into a nice little newsletter weekly
that, you know, maybe can at least at the very,
you know, save some people some time.
I got all the data collected there right in front of you
on a nice, neatly organized manner.
Why do I continue?
It's a really good question.
I don't, I can't pinpoint it how much I will continue,
especially if I believe that my customers can't get the place.
I'm starting to see that this year.
Stuff's moving within 30 to 60 seconds.
Ideally, if you, other than those very few people
that attack it and multiple outs and can really get down,
I mean, obviously we know I don't care how sharp I am.
If they're getting a point and a half horse,
the number, you can't win long term that way.
I mean, obviously winning percentage goes down greatly
in that regard.
I'll have to see, I mean, obviously I'll take some steps.
Maybe only let 50, 75 people have it.
I've always believed in this.
I mean, there's certain levels of touting.
I mean, going back to the boiler room.
I've never been about that.
I'm not saying that I'm a good guy.
I'm freaking mother Teresa, but anybody can free roll me.
I think that makes me different.
If I go 55, 60% in the season, somebody says,
hey, I didn't like your service.
I want to refund.
I just give him a full refund.
I mean, whatever.
He's getting all we didn't like.
We should cut it out.
We should cut it out.
Cut it out before Brad gets the refund request.
Yeah, that's fine.
I mean, if everybody calls me up and wants to refund it
then it is.
I mean, wouldn't hurt.
Yeah, but I mean, people do it.
Obviously they do it in the losing seasons.
You wouldn't believe what they do even in the winning seasons.
I don't know if you have one bad week.
Might just set them off.
I don't know what people's personal bank rules are.
To continue to do it, I like having a diverse portfolio.
And I see a lot of people I respect.
And maybe they're not pixel and they're not town.
But I see them diversifying their portfolio in this space
compared to what it used to be.
Hey, there's some money, maybe affiliates.
There's some money, you know, doing content.
Whether it's the old school content on TV,
social media, you name it podcast.
There's a lot of ways to monetize in this industry.
And I'm just not going to, you know,
get after anybody that wants to have a diverse portfolio.
I mean, I'll be perfectly honest with you.
I like having a certain income that's on the books sort of speak.
So when I'm making big purchases,
big brother governments not, you know, looking into my books.
So, hey, this is the money I made from touting, selling picks.
I can prove it.
Here's all this sales.
Here's what I'm going to pay taxes-wise.
I do it for that.
I mean, also as well, I'm just being honest.
Fair enough.
I think that was a very honest answer.
Yeah, I mean, listen, there's nothing more I can really add
to that or nitpick at that.
Everyone has their own incentives for doing what they want to do.
I think that that was well articulated, Brad.
You know, I will say one other thing, Rob.
I mean, because obviously I'm a very college football niche.
I'm not jumping from a sport to sport.
So I, it's, I mean, if somebody shows me proof
that if I can only bet college football,
I make this certain amount that I want to make,
then I, you know, by all means, I'll quit selling picks,
but you had Ed Golden from Razz on a few months ago.
And he didn't come out and, you know, say it,
but he kind of hinted towards it.
Even a group that's as successful as Razz
has as many out as a team.
You got to evaluate, you know, how much money I can make,
content, pick selling versus how much I can make
if I'm just solely betting.
And I got to tell you in today's day and age,
that's not a for sure answer.
Of course, you can make more money betting.
I don't, there's a lot of money to be had, you know,
in content and pick selling.
There just is.
I mean, we're not talking 50 grand of a year,
50 grand of year type stuff.
I mean, this is significant money.
And I'm not being, you know, that Sleesball
that's marketing a Pac-12 game of the week,
game of the year, Mountain West game of the year.
I'm not even doing hardly any marketing at this point.
And it's still a very profitable industry.
Does that make me a Sleesball?
That's your definition.
If it does, it does.
I don't, it's a dancer, your follow-up, I don't care.
You know, if he asked me two years ago, Rob,
that you know, I know who these people are on Twitter.
I wanted some adulation, I wanted some respect.
At this point in my life, I could care less
what these people think of me.
If you think I'm a Sleesball, then that's your prerogative.
Honestly, yeah, I would, it is what it is.
Don't hate the answer at all.
We get it all the time.
We've experienced this space.
I mean, you mentioned the RJ Bell situation, right?
I think back in 2013 or 2014,
I was a recreational better, wasn't winning.
I made a tweet about like RJ Bell putting out
some good information for NFL every week.
And I don't think I've ever gotten
more negative feedback on a tweet than I did in that time.
And you know, it was eye-opening for me.
And I learned some things from that situation.
But you know, even content we, you know,
we put out on a weekly basis, right?
It's hard to separate the good from the bad.
I think a lot of times people that are,
have a negative opinion of you
are just going to be way more vocal than anyone else.
And I've gotten to the same way.
That's life, that's life.
But this is circles off.
We started circles off as a bedding education type of channel.
It's evolved a little bit,
but we still preach bedding education at our core.
So before we get into our final questions here, Brad,
I'll just ask you for a general piece of advice
that you would give to an aspiring college football
better that's looking to improve their bedding.
I think I kind of hinted at it
when I was talking about college basketball,
specialized.
If you don't have that big a bankroll,
most starting off people don't.
They're not starting off with $250,000 as a bankroll.
I didn't, obviously.
I think a couple conferences study it around.
I think I would prefer you pick not the SEC in the big 10.
Pick, I would say conference USA.
Some bell, go after them.
Specializing them, follow those teams you're around.
I mean, you don't have to be Elon Musk sort of speaker Einstein
to get an edge in those markets.
All good.
So in addition to that,
we've been asking our guests recently for the last couple episodes
to give out a positive EV and a negative EV play of the week
or choose one or the other.
So with that being said,
this is not bedding related.
It could be, it could not be.
Brad, Brad Lee,
give us your positive or negative EV play of the week.
I think the most positive EV thing in my life right now
is morning walks,
preferably in parks or nature.
As I get older,
I just like, it helps me think.
It helps me get away from things.
That's the best thing that I do personally.
Or I think it helps me professionally to be honest with you.
What old morning walk?
What does a morning walk look like in Vegas?
Got it like a hundred Fahrenheit right now?
What has it got to be nuts?
You have to be honest with you.
You have to walk in like five a.m. in the morning here
because it's still 88 degrees in five a.m. in the morning.
So yeah, there's construction.
It's tough finding a quiet place.
It's not like a walk in other parts of the country,
but it's still, I don't know.
I'm a nature guy.
I mean, and I have OCD.
I count the lizards I see.
I count the number of rabbits, coyotes.
I'm like a little kid.
I mean, it just takes me back to simpler times.
All right, Brad, in our closing question,
if you could go back five years,
just a measly five years time,
what is one piece of advice
that you would give your previous self?
I'll be very specific.
And maybe this opens a can of worms.
We were going back to 2018.
I would tell myself, quit pre-game.
You're not going to have a fun 2019.
It's going to be really bad for you.
Personally, professionally, spiritually, emotionally.
Quit pre-game ASAP.
Move to New Jersey.
Take advantage of Bet as much as possible.
Don't be scared to bet as much as you can.
Because you have an edge.
And don't listen to other people saying,
you're going to only bet five, ten games a week.
Bet the board, man.
You have an edge.
You know this sport.
Don't be scared.
Yeah, I think that's a good advice.
And I think if you talk to a lot of bettors,
they would echo that in the sense that you hear a lot of,
if I only had bet bigger at that time,
or cashed in on that edge more than I did.
So honestly, if you do have an edge, go for it.
Obviously, play responsibly bet within your limits.
But if you're confident in what you're doing,
I think you got to capitalize on it.
Because there's very limited opportunities in life
that come by.
His name is Brad Powers.
You can follow him on Twitter or X or whatever
at Brad Powers.
Seven, check them out throughout the year
with Todd Furman and Payne Insider
on the Bet the board podcast.
And of course, head over to hit the books right now.
You're on YouTube, or if you're listening
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where Brad is live, Mondays and Fridays
throughout the college football season.
With Uncle K. Joey Konish, Brad,
thank you very much for doing this best of luck
this upcoming college football season.
Thanks for having me, guys.
This has been Circles Off.
Episode number 115 is part of the Hammer Betting Network.
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We'll catch everyone next week.