Hey, guys. Welcome to Group Chat. We got a hot episode. You got all three of us. We got a lot to talk about.
Onens not happy with, you know, our last episode.
Shoot social. Yeah. We think it's a little truth.
We're negotiating a deal with Shoot Social. Yeah.
We got rave reviews. Rumbles have been reaching out and find people.
We'll find people on all sides and we're down to get to the platforms. Yeah.
But Onens back, and we got a lot of news to talk about. I mean,
I don't want to take too long. I think we should just get right into it. What do you guys think?
Let's do it. Let's go.
Um, guys, are we about to get crushed by a hurricane here or what's going on?
Hillary is coming.
Saw it. Currr up.
Different Hillary. Sorry, sorry, sorry. It's just an instinct.
It's a theme of your last episode, so it makes sense. What do you think?
Thought you guys were off the rails. Yeah. I think anything. I think the rails are quite on.
I think we've finally got back. We've fallen off the roller coaster. It's like one of those freaky
Twitter videos where the roller coaster just goes berserk and any high-lights you'd like to go now.
Sidshaw was like, great pod. He didn't refer to which one. I know which one he's talking about.
We know what people want to hear. They want to hear the truth.
They want to hear the true podcast called Caroup Chat.
Is there anything that you'd like to address or you just want to move past it?
I feel like a move past it. No need. If it comes up, if a if a topic comes up,
I'd like to congratulate myself. You guys said I follow the Taylor Swift tour around and watch
Barbie every time. Yeah. It's right. It's just greatness. Yeah. It's, I mean, Barbie just succeeded
the Dark Knight as the number one grossing Warner Brothers movie of all time.
He should. Dark Knight's one of the greatest movies of all time and they just beat it.
And Taylor is the greatest grossing concert of all time. So you must like my new guy who's number
one on Spotify since he's greatness. He came out of nowhere since you like white straight Oliver
Anthony music. Rich men north of Richmond. You like white power. I have no issue with the song.
It's fine. But it's just funny how the white guy is the victim now. It's pretty good. How
the right is really good at that. But everything you just described that is greatness is
white. Straight pretty white people. No, I don't see color with Barbie. Barbie has a lot of color
because there is no color. Barbie is one color. I don't see it. There's no color. It's white.
Nothing to see. It's just proving on and big into white supremacy.
Did you have any comments about the laser beams?
Maui's full of shit. That's what's happening in Maui. If you want to step back
on Maui, I want to talk about Maui. Yeah, it's an infrastructure problem. So it's easy to come
up with conspiracy theories. We've all been to why we've all been to multiple islands.
They just don't have the infrastructure when disasters happen. I watched the interview with
CBS News grilling, like the emergency guy that was in charge of the sirens. He has no background
in it. Absolutely none. He actually went through his resume and said he did. But he said, had he
alerted the sirens, people would have ran mountainside, which is where the fires were, and they
would have literally walked into death. So for example, I think yeah. No, I'm just saying
a white infrastructure problem to him. But don't you think people would be like, they're not like
rats. They're like mice. They're not just going to run into the fire and be like, oh, I'm sorry.
The larger point is just there's massive issues and just look, it's a resort island. It's not a
metropolitan area. They don't have the same services and things that we have in like a Los Angeles
and New York or Chicago or like one of these major cities. Like for example, I remember we
did our baby moon in Hawaii with our before mav was born and the doctor was like, look,
just make sure you do it really early because there's only like one hospital you can go to if you
go into labor and you're going to be stuck there prematurely for like months. And she's like I have
numerous patients from LA that are she used to work in like the Honolulu hospital and you have all
these couples that come for their baby moon maybe at like five or six months. They go into labor
prematurely and they're there for six months because there's literally only one hospital in this
only place you can go to. So from the bones of the island, it's a resort tourist destination. They
aren't built for these kind of catastrophes. Yeah, I think I think everyone understand that's
why it's easy to come up with this laser bullshit. Well, as opposed to just the underlying problem,
you have this like island that's beautiful and it's amazing, but when you have this 911 situation
where you need all these resources to actually solve the problem, they just don't exist. Yeah,
luckily Joe Biden came in and he's given everyone who lost their home 700 bucks. Is he? Is that
what he's doing? Yes. Oh man. 700 bucks. They better. I think this incident is so important politically
on how it's handled purely from a resource standpoint because it's obviously it's it's on American
soil. A lot of people are going to die. A lot of people do not have homes. And while this
is happening, if you keep sending money to Ukraine, you got to send money to Maui. You better send
a shitload of resources to Maui. I also think about politician. It's such an opportunity not to like
I don't want to be insensitive, but it's such an opportunity because it's such a like
people are taking it as an example between like the haves and the have-nots. Yeah, you know,
there's like the locals and there's always been a thing on Hawaii of, you know, the locals versus tourists
Yeah, of course. They don't like they don't like. Yeah, didn't you say when you guys used to film
fantasy factory in Hawaii, it was like security. We had to have locals and security and people
screamed at us at the gas stations. It was not it was a known thing like they don't they don't
fuck with it. So look, I think that obviously laser beams sent from Oprah and Zuck are ridiculous,
but I do think that is just showing you that people are seeing this as a haves and have-nots issue
and how each person gets treated. And look, yeah, maybe Oprah's house wasn't in the fire zone,
like I'm not saying anything, but it's just the optics of it. And I think if you're a politician,
it really is a moment to, you know, we stick up so hard for the people of Ukraine.
We sent tens of billions of dollars. So it just seems like an opportunity to like
really take care of these people and sort of give a win to
yeah, the common person. Yeah. Yeah. I agree. That's actually the right thing to do,
but unfortunately, there isn't political upside in doing it. I think there will be now.
Well, there's an election coming. I mean, no, but like the Republicans don't care about
Maui at all because they vote blue. Yeah, I don't think it's a Democrat. I think it's a chance
for Biden is what I think it is. Yeah. Playing in simple and nothing else. But I think $700
to be honest, you're better off doing nothing. Um, I saw
Bezos obviously pledged the hundred million. Have we seen any other billionaire?
Do so. Because Larry Ellison has the biggest island off of Maui. Yeah. And
so the big rumor, the big like conspiracy rumor land grab, the state's going to buy land,
investors are going to buy land. The governor came out yesterday last night and said that
blocking all any attempt to purchase any land at this time and saying that's not going to happen.
I think that's like a big concern that it's like, forget all the weird conspiracies that it's
like an opportunity for, you know, shit, if Blackstone could buy
beachfront property at did pennies on the dollar, Maui, they would do it. I mean, not just
everyone would do it. Yeah. It's also kind of scary just with climate change.
Had these instances are going to be more frequent than less frequent. So
Maui is a place that so many tourists from America go to from the mainland of United States. Like
it's this like desired destination. And half the island was effectively destroyed in a span of
like a few days. Like this is going to happen in Miami, given the rise in seawater and given the
climate in the that air part of the country. I mean, we got to go on the way. Yeah, it has a
hurricane, which is insane. Yeah. That's wild. It's going to start happening in cities that people
aren't used to. When it happened in Bangladesh and it happened in these places, people are like,
oh, I feel bad. But now it's happening in places where people from America frequent. Yeah.
And that's going to be the eye opening part of all of this because it's not slowing down. It's
going to increase in frequency. There's enormous opportunity and prove, you know, transportation
infrastructure and and response time. All of this stuff. Yeah. I mean, you know, I know how here
they always say that there's warnings and there's not proper like brush clearing and things like
that. Do we know if that sort of thing happened or I don't know because they're like preventive.
Yeah. I think there are. I know in California, that's a big thing. But you know, Hawaii is tropical.
Like there's always rain. I don't think there is dry brush like there is. Maybe there is and I
don't know. But California is dry, you know, 10 months of the year. And the goal of people. So I
searched on social media, just the Maui four seasons, just to see if people are posting. No one's
not posting. No, obviously people are pigs. Yeah. I mean, if you're at the Maui four seasons. Yeah.
It's just the other side of the island that was untouched. That's the probably treating it like a,
you know, like you can go do a drive by and check it out. Yeah, because the post, if you like,
search on TikTok or Instagram, anyone, everyone's like, oh my god, I'm at the white lotus hotel.
And it's like from two days ago. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. That's the way it goes. What about this Hawaiian
Hawaiian electric issue? Yeah. So this is the company that obviously was doing all the wiring for
power and electricity in Hawaii and Maui. And obviously that the infrastructure there led to
fires to start to be ablaze. And now, you know, they're getting, they're anticipating lawsuits
of stocks getting crumbled. And there's precedent in California, the electricity company here
went bankrupt in 2017 due to the fires. So everyone's like, look, the liability is going to be so
high that this company will end up having to either go bankrupt because of the liabilities. And I have,
this is not financial advice. And I'm going to continue now. The way companies have been
trading in the last few months when you hear these things, they become meme stocks immediately.
Yeah. So like yellow, the trucking company is going bankrupt and then popped like 400 percent
in the span of two days. Yeah. I think this is going to be a swing trade. Not to say Hawaii
electric is going to actually survive. Yeah, it's just people will just think in your terms. There's
like some Reddit board that's going on. Like, let's go back to Hawaii and they'll make it this
like rallying call. We're supporting Maui and the stocks going to fly. This is not financial advice.
Yeah, I like it. I like that. The thing that seems tricky here is like if they're the cause of it
that's, you know, I don't think it matters. Like meme stocks, like memes, these are all stupid.
Yeah. I mean, Goldman saying that the zero-day options
is fueling just the volatility in the market. Zero-day options is basically like
roulette, black or red. That's what people are doing. And what are they saying here? So many people
are trading options that it's messing up the stock market. Yeah. So if you think about peak pandemic
when we were all home and we thought that's when like the daily day trader and all that stuff
was going on, 30 percent of the option market was retail. So basically like me sitting and betting
on win stock in the office because I'm bored. What do you think that percent is today?
Five percent. Yeah, I would say seven. Twenty-seven percent. So it's totally tailed off.
That's the only thing that's still consistent from COVID. What the fuck?
So that means this is why yellow stock goes up four hundred percent. This is why my not financial
advice. You're going to see a near-term uptick in Hawaii electric. So you just have, I mean,
27 percent of the daily option volume is retail. That's like me and peak pandemic. Yeah.
Yeah. So I think, yeah, that makes sense. So are you saying that they said that for that day?
Today it was down. The day before it was down. You don't think there's actually a liquidity crisis
in the market that people are just kind of with bonds rallying. Oh, yeah. No, no, no. Those are
different things. My only point was just why these stocks that are absolutely insolvent start to pop.
Yeah, but just if you take a take a step back the last couple of weeks, the market has dipped a
little in the grand scheme of things, nothing, but a few percentage points. And a lot of particularly
the big tech companies like apples down 10 percent, which is crazy for Apple to be done.
And it feels like it's like some of the gas has been drowning out. And there's clearly now,
I mean, I don't know if you guys saw the recap of the Fed minutes that came out. Basically,
they said inflation is still here. Yeah. And it doesn't look like it's that what we thought
is really happening isn't happening. And inflation is quite sticky. And so that means in September,
they're going to raise again. Yeah. So the Fed had a meeting yesterday in the minutes came out and
they were pretty hawkish saying that they might need to keep raising. And it's just consistent with
what I've been saying for over two and a half years. They have zero credibility. They changed
they changed their opinion every month. Oh, we're having a soft landing now like inflation's too high.
Why don't we just look at the real economy if the real economy is working at these current
interest rates. And at these current inflation levels, which it is, what are we panicking and
just tanking the market? Yeah. Well, their argument is there they don't care about this stock market.
Forget stock where they real economy is working. Exactly. So then you know, you can raise more.
But what are you achieving just to get more pain? They're just trying to get that number down.
Like I think they still believe that people have jobs. I know they believe 2 percent,
but it's an arbitrary 2 percent. We're at 3. So why is 3 worse than 2? Talk to Jay.
Yeah. That's not my role. Not my role. Time to keep hiking.
Yeah. I mean, the 10 year yield was the highest I think in 20 plus years. It's 4.3 percent.
Which is amazing if you're an investor because you're getting risk free. Yeah, risk free. I mean,
you could probably risk free at 7 percent at this point. Yeah, probably. Like what is corporate debt
being issued at now? 10, 12 percent. You probably get grade A debt. Yeah, promo. I don't know
of what like Google debt is, but yeah. Okay, take one step down. A company that's not going to go
insolvent. Yeah. Hawaii and electric. Their debt's probably paid to 540 percent. Go ahead. Make
your bet on it. Yeah. So I mean, the Fed just consistently has no idea what they're doing.
And I've been consistent with that. And I know a lot of people think the Fed has been
genius in this whole thing, but they change their tune every month. So how do you
have like anything? It reminds me of like buyers or like, you know, we had this like when we were
doing TV. Like people have to act like experts because it's their job and you're in that role.
But you really don't know until week over week, you see the selling or you see the ratings.
And so like you can have this whole spiel for the whole week or in the Fed's case a month
about why this is what it is and this is where it's going. And then you just don't know until you
see those numbers and your whole tune will change instantly. And those minutes change like in
the tunes of trillions of dollars. Yeah. Yeah. Like that, the minutes that released yesterday
had the mortgage rates hike to the highest they've been in 20 plus year. The treasury rate went up
and stock and stock work. It went down. Yeah. And it just seems irresponsible
because they're going to come out next month and say something different. And then everything
will come down. The treasury rate will come down. The Fed will, uh, I mean, I don't know. It's just
this a time to buy. Not financial advice. But one would say, okay, then we're on sale.
Yeah. I think the, uh, the thing that like the Fed, like I would love to know, take your,
don't take Citadel as the hedge fund. Take your B grade hedge fund. The data that they have
access to versus the Fed who has 120 PhDs and all these people working there. I think 400 PhDs.
Okay. 400 PhDs. 400 people that don't know what they're doing.
So I, well, my, my, my, we know hedge funds. So like, for example, if, if you don't know,
Kathy's, I don't know hedge funds, particularly on retail consumer stocks, they can tell you
with fucking insane position, how much business every retail in America does on a daily basis.
One day later, two days later. So for example, that, that's honestly the, so what you're referring
to is every hedge fund, every venture fund, every private equity fund, they purchase credit card
data. So your private company, we're not really strangers. I bet you a venture fund or private
equity could probably pinpoint your sales within three percent. Yeah. And your private, your data
is not public. Yeah. Like that, the sophistication of their ability to access data is, yeah,
gotten some phone calls that I would imagine were inspired by that. Like they seem a little, you
know, right? They're just like, you know, you did, you did. By the way, so like how hard is it
to predict, predict target or Walmart? Yeah. If they can predict, well, not really strangers,
no fence, you're not target. You're, you're just a private company with not, with no data.
Sure. That's publicly available. Yep. And they're able to predict your, your, your revenue. Yeah.
I mean, we know, we know that the data hedge funds have to get consumer data so accurate.
If you turn that into that data fed, well, I'm just saying, yeah, like bring it, you didn't close
the loop. The loop is, is if the Fed has that data, inflation is clearly represented in that
credit card data. You should be able to look at the average cost of fucking eggs, a t-shirt,
and compare it to last years of the same data set and show me if there's inflation or not.
That's it. The problem is the Fed is hiring the Fed is using PhD their academics. So there's
looking at charts, they're looking at dated economic theory, when 27% of option traded, option volume
is retail throughout all the economic books that we've all read in the last 50 years. Because
that's irrelevant. That's not what's moving the market. Yeah. But so there was an interesting
TikTok that went viral of this guy breaking down how CPI is calculated. And if you guys saw it,
and he basically said that there's, there's language in there where you can, they've instilled
to adjust inflation where they can substitute an item. So he used an example of stake. Let's say the
cost of this particular five ounces of stake a year ago is $20 and today that stake is $25.
So technically that's 25% inflation on that item. What they do instead sometimes is they say,
they'll find another stake that's five ounces from a different tier of grade or different brand.
And that might only be $21. It's not the same exact skew a year later. And so if they're using
substitution as the measuring index, that's not very accurate. And so you can manipulate the data
to say whatever you want it to. Of course. And so that's, I mean, when you start, this is what
drives people nuts for conspiracy. So the entire basket for this CPI should be fucking published
front page of the USA today in Wall Street Journal. And just we should all be tracking it together.
But it should be daily like a stalker. Yes. Exactly. And I think the fact that we don't even know
what's clearly in that basket that's creating these policy changes is the scary. Why people think
everything has a conspiracy? Why won't you fucking share it publicly to build trust? We have such a
trust issue right now. American government has a trust issue. Well, I think the, for example,
I'll give example, but do you know Russia released all this information saying that
United States is working on the next pandemic, right? Propaganda. It could be propaganda, right?
They've all this data is going on. If you read the comments, make sense, make sense. We're now
believing Russian propaganda that we're going to create because you weren't even allowed to say
it looks like it makes sense. It came out of a lab in Wuhan. You weren't even allowed to say it.
That was a crazy conspiracy that was anti Asian. But what makes it so fascinating is the
the sophisticated people are the ones that going to make out. So the average person can't move
right now, right? So it's 7.1% mortgage rates. You can't move if you are at a 2% mortgage rate.
So, you know, your hands are tight. But all the sophisticated investors know which way to play
this. They, I mean, so Chimath, who I give a lot of credit to since November of 2021 is publicly
stated on Twitter and his podcast where he sees the rate cycle going. He's pretty much nailed
everything. And he wrote like this long tweet yesterday, I think, talking about the mortgage rates.
And what the cascading effect is basically no one could move. So how about Uncle Warren?
Do you see what his biggest increase in positions were? Homebuilders. The last quarter.
There's new homes. That's the only supply. Yeah. Because he can't see. And all the homebuilders
stocks are up like 20, 30%. This guy doesn't mind. Yeah. This guy doesn't miss. What's interesting
on CNBC, the toll brother CEO was on there. And he was like, oh, business is booming. You guys,
you can't buy an existing home. Right. So then what to finish the point on which Chimath's
tweet storm was that with the Fed hiking rates again, we're probably going to see
some sort of softer growth in the next two quarters. We're going to see real cracks in the economy.
We've already buried commercial real estate office. This is zero. Regional banks are zero.
Then if individual homes can't move because no one can move to the next, he's like, I think we
could see a rate cut in the first quarter of 2024, which is very bold prediction because no one's
predicting that. We're talking about a rate height next month. Yeah. So if he hits this again,
it's pretty impressive. Yeah. I mean, I think he macro, he understands. Like his PhDs are better.
Yeah. I don't think their PhDs are just really smart people. Yeah. I don't think you can learn
economics through academics anymore because it's not changed too much. It's also the difference of
when you need to, you need to be right to survive versus the Fed. It doesn't matter if you're right
or not really. Like if Jay Powell messes up and overdoes interest rates and the economy collapses
and people lose jobs and blah, blah, blah. He doesn't lose his pay. He doesn't lose his, there's no
stakes for Chimoth. He, I'm not saying Chimoth is going to go broke, but for Chimoth to make as much
money as he wants to make and do well and hire and continue to grow, he has to do well. And I just
think like there's so many of these systems that are just built around, they're just like hoarding
control. The reason they don't release more data or do day-to-day is because that's just,
that's a little bit less control they have to kind of fudge the numbers. Who knows? Inflation
might be one and a half percent. It also might be five percent. We have no idea what it really is,
but they just bottle up all the control and there's really no stakes for them to get it right.
What's it matter? Yeah, I think it has to be specifically when it comes to like policy
on interest rates and things of that nature, which affects so many people, the data needs to be
so transparent. And maybe it is getting published, but like it should be literally, the fed should
take a fucking ad on CNBC and be like, okay, you want to talk about the haves and have not.
Citadel knows where the rates are going to go in the next six months. Blackstone knows,
we just don't know. Yeah. Yeah, it's pretty wild. Warren knows. Warren knows. That's why he's
buying. That is the good thing is at least you can follow their trades. There was a guy that's
been tracking Larry Fink, the CEO of Blackstone's trade. And every time he sold, the market has
dipped double digit and he just sold a bunch of personal holdings and it's down five percent.
So he's like, okay, we're probably have another five, ten percent paying left. This guy,
it's so obvious. You follow all of these people like Warren Buffett's apple trade is the most
public, most duh. You could have been a year late and made a fortune. It's so true. You just
follow Pelosi's husband. You'll get it right every time. You're better than Warren.
But the Warren stuff is like really easy than just anyone can do it. This is a little more
sophisticated. Yeah. Oh, true. Okay. How about this? There's this sort of thing. There's,
I mean, I want to like make sure I encapsulate like I feel like there is a massive change
happening in the country in the
undercurrent or what people are, you know, maybe the culture wars, whatever you want to call it.
So we everyone knows we just went through a huge period and maybe we're still in it,
maybe we're coming out of it. I don't know where everything can get you canceled.
You can't dare to maybe say something or a joke or something about, you know, a marginalized
group. You can't even, you know, kind of be adjacent to that. You have to respect everyone's
pronouns and write to this and you can't dead name and you can't, you know, just felt like a
lot of landmines and a lot of people are getting canceled. There's this thing happening. It's
no secret. That's a different wave. You know, I think the biggest thing that we've seen of it
is Bud Light. Everyone knows what happened there. I think then we saw another really interesting
thing with this Jason Aldin small town, try that in a small town song. And it's just happening.
And we actually have a couple topics around this topic and I think they kind of belong together.
So I will say the first one is there's a new song that everyone is rallying behind. And
let me click on it. This gentleman's name is Oliver Anthony. He is a red-haired bearded fella.
Got a catchy little jingle called Rich Men North of Richmond. Yeah.
Blowing up on YouTube. I listened to it right before we listened. Catchy little jingle.
I mean, unknown, completely unknown. So this guy's in the woods. I would guess, you know, south of
Richmond. Like he's doing a concert like at a circus. And this thing has just went nuts. Now
this is a thing, like I'm saying, this wouldn't have went nuts a year ago. It's just there's a moment
happening. And this guy is involved in that wave. Yeah. I mean, what do you guys think? Like,
what do you think about the? Well, yeah. So I think the interesting thing is target CEO
addressed it in their earnings that they had a negative impact on sales and traffic because of
their pride related incidents that, you know, that became a national issue, which is really
surprising because most times they, you know, corporations don't address negative things. They
just kind of brushed it under the rug. So it must have been pretty significant that he had to
address it publicly because like, I don't think Bob Eiger is going to address it. If he thought
it affected Disney in any way. And if you haven't seen it, follow the young woman who's portraying
Snow White. And I mean, there's zero chance that movie is going to get put out. I'll say the
problem with her is she's condescending. What is it? What's the? So she, she's the star Snow White.
And she's been doing, she did interview a lot of interviews. For the movie not coming out yet,
she's doing interviews. Basically saying like the original Snow White was like, not the way life
should be. And we fixed it. We're lucky. We even kept the prints in something like that. And
honestly, like the message is not really the problem as opposed to the way it was delivered.
She's very arrogant. That's a problem. As our local, woke guy, I was even like, you can't talk
like this. Is it this Rachel Zegler? Is that who this is? Oh my god. She's just so condescending.
Yeah. And it's been so it's turned off. I mean, a lot of people and it has nothing to do with what
her point is fine. And like you can make your point differently. Well, that was the genius of Barbie.
Yeah. That was a gene. They didn't lead with that. Yeah. You at the end of the day, you are in
the entertainment business. Focus on entertaining. If you in your entertainment can give a positive
message, you win. That's why Barbie won because they wanted to just make you laugh. You can't lead off
like this. The original promises movie was awful. Yeah. So we had to switch it up.
Like you can't do that. Don't be. Don't be snow white then. Yeah. If Barbies, if Barbies ad campaign
was the end of the patriarchy, that was the theme of it. We've got zero. Yeah. It wouldn't have worked.
100%. They led with what Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling laughing and having a good time. That
is what entertainment is supposed to be. You could still get your message across. Like if I'm Disney,
you got to just tell it. I mean, I don't think this movie even ever fucking comes out.
Which is crazy because Disney is catching L after L after L. Yes. I mean, Bob Eiger, we talked
about how he was a hero for leaving right before the pandemic. He better call Margot Robbie and
make her the next time. We were like crazy. He left, I think February of 2020 and we're like,
oh, he saw the data in China with the parks. Yeah. He messed up. He's gonna be disaster and
he should have stayed there. Yeah. And then now he's trying to come back and play hero ball and
I mean, the more I think about the ESPN pen gaming, it's a terrible deal. Like it's just like
what are you doing? Yeah. The deal between ESPN and pen, you mean? Yeah. Like you, you basically
forfeited your ability to partner with DraftKings, FanDuel and now you're tied up for 10 years
with maybe pens the best option. Maybe they're not. Yeah. All for two billion, a billion and a half
and then 500 million and warrants. Yeah. And the grand scheme of Disney, that's not a lot of money.
No, it's not money. Over 10 years. He better go find the widest snow white he can find.
Oh my gosh. He better have Jason Aldin in address. He better have Jason Aldin as the prince and
I don't know who he get for snow white. Yeah. Yeah. It's just man, it's so interesting. I
think at a certain point he's going to have to address it. Like I think that's my point is that
I think like target addressed it and yeah, they had a bad quarter, but the reason why they had a
bad quarter when they're and I think this is just generic opinion of analysts who follow
Targan and Walmart is Walmart is much heavier and grocery and discretionary spending has been
hurt, right? Whether people like it or not, there are recessionary feelings across discretionary
spend. Target is more discretionary spend than it is grocery. But target has spent the last 15
years trying to expand their grocery. They just might not have been able to do it as quickly as Walmart.
No. And then yeah, I think Walmart is essentials. Whereas like target does allow for,
target has done a great job of being like better products, better brands and the consumers
a little tight because the flip side is TJ Maxx and Walmart reported incredible quarters and
TJ Maxx is just an example of the consumer trading down to get more value. They want their brands.
They just want a better deal. That's all it is. But think about how much things have changed. Like
Bud Light and Target two years ago, no one even like this does not change shopping.
Isn't it interesting that both things exist currently? So if you think of the biggest movie
at Barbie, the biggest concert Taylor Swift, Taylor Swift, the audience embraces all the things
that the Bud Light crowd and what the anti-target people and the Barbie crowd. That's so different.
It's different. Taylor Swift is not screaming anything, but it's music.
One of our original fan bases was the LGBTQ community. I know, but I know what you're missing here
is the nuance. Like I think these people are a little smarter than we're giving them credit for,
meaning like they specifically have a problem with Bud Light. I think because it's someone talking
to kids, then whose fan base is a lot of kids. I think that with Target, it was specifically
because it was kids like swimsuits that were, you know, it's kids. It's like stop preaching to our
kids these issues that are ahead of their time. Whereas Taylor Swift, yes, of course she welcomes
all those people. These people, I don't take them as like hateful. Like if you like gay people,
we don't like you. It's not that. It's much more nuance. And even though Taylor welcomes everyone
at the end of the day, she makes just great music and puts on a great show.
The era's tour, like marketing, isn't the gayest tour ever made? Like it's just not. Do you know how
what percentage of the staff that built this stage is blah, blah, blah, like it's just
yeah, no, it's great work. And then she looks out for the right people.
Have you listened to Rogan at all the last couple of weeks?
He's half probably. Yeah. So he brings it up all the time. How he thinks it's ridiculous that
there's backlash to Barbie. He's like, what do you expect the movie to be about? He thinks it's
ridiculous to point drinking Bud Light. He's like, if you like Bud Light, drink Bud Light. If you
don't, don't drink Bud Light on the show the other day. And he probably drank, I mean, post
Malumbria 25 Bud Lights. Yeah. Yeah. That guy's a, they're stamina. I watched the over a course of
a week, the full four hours of post Malumbria on Rogan. He smokes cigarettes the entire time.
Rockstar was drinking Bud Light the entire time. Yeah.
That's why I was in a pack and a half of cigarettes. I would guess.
Speaking of rock stars, this is going to be my content recommendation.
I love Johnny Manzel. I love Johnny football. That guy, 18, 19, getting hammered and scoring
six, seven touchdowns at a football game. That was a great, that was a great documentary.
I love him. I love him even more now. He was such an athlete. He was a freak. He was a freak.
Yeah. The fact that he didn't know any of the plays didn't practice. Yeah.
You see all the young and reckless in there? No, I didn't see it. What?
I didn't see it either. I watched it on my phone. Oh my gosh. There was a shot of him wearing a
young and reckless shirt and then another one of his boy wearing one like front and center logo T.
I remember we used to give it to him, but yeah, I don't know. Man, I loved Johnny Manzel in college
and I loved him as a pro. Obviously, the ending is sad, but it seems like he's very happy with it.
He's like, he's living in Scottsdale with his boys. Yeah, and he's like, I love being Johnny
football. It's a great, it's so great. Yeah, maybe like him a lot more. Not that I didn't like him.
And like we would always see him out and stuff. He was always so nice and cool and mellow.
And the nicest. He was so friendly to everyone around him. Yeah, I love him.
But now I like him even more after watching that. But yeah, look, I think it's just interesting
just to put a button on that last part that look, I'm sure Target will be fine. It doesn't seem
at least like I can anything I can see that they're getting a bunch of backlash. You know,
I think the problem with Bud Light is when they sort of stop supporting Dylan Mulvaney,
then it was like, Oh, now you don't support us. And then Dylan Mulvaney made another video about how
she would have rather them just not work with her at all as opposed to working with her and then
backing out. That doesn't seem to be the case with Target. I'm sure everything will be fine there.
But it's just interesting. It used to be that if you did something like this, there is no
world where your sales suffer. And you get a little bit of goodwill. You know, you did the right
thing. And so I'm sure every big business and every brand had something in the pipeline to just
kind of check that like did the right thing box. And now I just wonder what happens because
these little moments that these brands thought were just doing the right thing have caused like
very real issues. I wonder if they'll be a shift and not just corporations, but celebrities,
just being like going kind of back to where they were in the past is like, you know, Charles
Barkley, obviously says, I'm not a role model. I'm just an athlete. That's your problem if you think
I'm special. I think like, you know, I'm not advocating for them to do anything bad in public,
whether it be companies or people, but maybe not do anything. Just run your business,
you know, make money. I would guess celebrities are going to be less likely to be vocal about their
personal opinions on things. Yeah. Yeah, it's also just like, hey, how about you just run your
business and do the right thing? Like hire, you know, equally, make sure pay is equal within your
company. Just quietly do the right thing. Yeah, like I think I think where companies go wrong is
that they have to make everything so public about what the changes they're making internally.
Just do it because it's the right thing to do. Yeah. Like why do you have to make it so that you
turn people against your company? That's what I think waste it, you know, to do it in a much
softer way that doesn't piss off people. And just to reiterate, that's what I think Barbie did so
well is the movie, like you said on it, I haven't still haven't seen it, but was incredibly diverse,
was incredibly, but that wasn't the advertising. It was just advertised as a great movie. And then
they did the right thing, you know, within the movie. And I just think, whatever we'll see it, but
you wonder what's crazy is the right has never, I mean, maybe back when country was like the biggest
thing in the world, but like the right has never really owned music, you know, and like to see the
right have an impact on music. That's pretty wild. I'm waiting for a right wing rapper, you know,
I mean, it's just a matter of time. I mean, drama, if you had listened to me when we start this
podcast five years ago, you'd probably be a billionaire because now it's like not, now it's like
kind of, yeah, mundane to be a right wing. You're right. I had a five year window. Yeah.
You'd be, but look at me. We all that's all of it. There's nothing like also two right wing
Indians. Well, it would be timely too, right? You have an Indian politician. That's right. Yeah,
it's just, yeah, I mean, it's, this is actually a good way for us to go. We went right wing. Yeah,
we look like white guy and two brown guys all right. Right. Oh, it actually works because like
UK Prime Minister's Indian is right. Oh, it could have been called one white all right.
One white all right. Yeah, that describes all, you know, it's one white, but we're all right.
Damn it. We messed up. Okay. So you mentioned Walmart. How about this?
Kava and sweet green, just talking about more things that are going on in the market. Kava and
sweet green are seeing delivery orders fall because people are coming in to pick up their own
food. We've talked about this for a while. Do you actually mention that you do this in your
neighborhood? You kind of made a shift a while ago six months ago to doing that because you just
started to realize once you start paying attention to costs and stuff like that, you realize that
you're spending a lot of extra money on things like that. It seems like that might be a growing trend.
Yeah, so Kava and sweet green reported that they are seeing a significant uptick in consumers
picking up their own food. A signal that diners are growing thrift year. I mean, when you really look
at just the conveniences of delivery and ride sharing, then you start doing the math of how all
these things add up. When you look at your like in New York City when I take an Uber versus a taxi,
the Uber is substantially more expensive. When you order something like delivery to me,
unless it's a group of people ordering food, there's no financial way it makes sense to order
food for one person delivery. It's absolutely absurd when it comes to the cost. I think consumers
given the macro issues are just realizing like, I'm very conscious of it. When I'm driving or I'm
walking somewhere, I'll find the Starbucks or the restaurant I want to pick up food from. I'm
just a little more thoughtful on it because it's just like, it's too expensive. When you look at
the Delta, if there was a calculator out there saying, if you had picked up your own food this year,
you would have saved this much money. I think people would lose their shit. Yeah. I mean, when you
just look at your like monthly or quarterly postmates bill, it's very depressing. And you know,
that's like 30% fat. Yeah, 30% meaning you could cut if you just went to the store. Yeah,
or the restaurant between tip, you know, and the fees they add. It's like 30% for a driver fees.
Yeah. And then the postman door dash, they don't have to pay the, yeah. Just the good days are over.
Man, think about it. Like we didn't know when I had to go to work. You roll around in your sweat
pants. You get food for people to work still. No, they're not as much. But I mean, you know,
that's ending a little bit. Just think though in the glory days, it was like, don't got to go to work,
don't got to go see anybody. People just bring food to my door. I uber all I'm driven around
by chauffeurs. It's like everyone lived like a, you know, multi-millionaire. Wild.
What's this Dow's tomato sauce that just got bought for $2.7 billion? Rows, Rows. Rows.
Rows. Rows. Rows is their restaurant in New York City. They have a tomato sauce business
and Campbell Soup just paid $2.7 billion for this company. So it was start. So first,
it was a restaurant. Still is. It's still a restaurant. There's actually one right near you.
You can see if we walk there, but you can walk there. Shocking needs in a bad area.
But that's just amazing. Like they, I mean, because what are the restaurants worth? Like, you know,
whatever that number is, then you go make your tomato sauce. And that's $2.7 billion.
To be fair, they do have now frozen pizzas on trays, soups, pastas.
But it's still based off the more of the original restaurant. Yeah, and it's really based off
the tomato sauce. I'm bet you that's like their hero item of what they are really selling
the most of. I mean, we buy that tomato sauce at least once a month. We're buying
that sauce. Really? Yeah. Wow. It's a good, it's a good, like, basic, easy tomato sauce.
The revenue of the company was $800 million last year.
And it just exploded. In 2019, it did less than $400 million. So it's doubled in the last
couple of years. But sustained the COVID bump. Yeah. No ones at home cooking pasta. Yeah.
What a great. It's just so great. I mean, like, if you had to completely guess what those two
restaurants do, they're probably in New York City. It's probably a $10 million, $10 million
restaurant and LA $2 million. I mean, I don't think it rags in Hollywood.
Plus, I think about hard. Those are to run. Think about what the margins are. And then you do
$400 million, $800 million on frickin' your sauce and your frozen pizzas. It's so great.
What a great way to leverage a brand, you know? Yeah. It definitely, like, it's an amazing story.
Yeah. Yeah. It's kind of a good sign for our podcast guests from two weeks ago,
Tway and Rehuse and the concept DD, because they talked about CPG goods as part of their. Yeah.
There's so much. When you walk up and down the grocery aisle, there's so much room for disruption,
still with heritage brands. You just have to have, like, a name.
Like, nothing hotter than my bad business. Prime. The drink. Logan. Yeah.
Is that Logan, Jake, beef, real, or is that all for TikTok?
They have beef. They just always see your clips of them fighting on podcasts.
I've heard that they really have, like, a weird relationship, like that they really do.
Because apparently I watched a little bit of their documentary on Netflix, maybe 15 minutes of it.
They definitely have moments where they hate each other. Yeah. It's a weird thing.
They're like competitive against each other. They're like, at one point, Logan slept with Jake's
girlfriend on purpose. You know, like, it's pretty, they've had some pretty brutal moments, I think,
and then they have this weird, like, yeah, but we're brothers.
Yeah, because the story that I keep, the keeps popping up in my TikTok is,
Logan yelling at Jake because Jake wouldn't let Prime drink in the last fight,
and Jake said he'd be arrested on site if he showed up with theć´ž drink.
I love it. You got to do it.
All right. Let's wrap it up with our winners and losers' content
to sail us off into the week. And Dee, who's your biggest winner of the week?
My biggest winner of the week is Walmart. Walmart continues to absolutely crush.
Their earnings came out, and their e-commerce business grew 24%. It's still substantially
smaller than Amazon. But the mere fact that in this climate, they're still
growing at that pace is just unbelievable. They did an incredible job shifting really to groceries
and necessities of Americans. And, you know, like, their sales grew 6% over the last 12 months
compared to last year, which is off a high comp growth. And it's amazing. You know, we always
talk about how amazing Big Tech is, Google, you know, Amazon and Microsoft. But like, Walmart,
to me, fits in that category of like, at the sheer size, they are still growing. It's unbelievable.
I agree. Yeah. I agree. And it just seems like when you look at how much smaller they are on
e-commerce, then Amazon, it just feels like so much opportunity still.
Yeah, they did $8 billion of net income last quarter up from 5.1.
Wow. Great. Okay. Love it.
Onend. Who's your winner?
Two from the same sport. Namar, just signed with the Saudi League for
$300, I think, $50 million. Some odd.
Plus like a private jet and a private jet, a mansion, staff, every time he posts
pro-Saudi content, he gets $500,000. And he's 31. So he's going to clear, you know,
$370 million or whatever the number is tax-free. Yeah. Man, if I was him, my whole fee would be
Saturday. I post two two times a day, nick of a million dollars. Yeah, I just post you
in your girlfriend and like, PS loves Saudi Arabia. I mean, how can you turn that down?
Because he's not living what you would think life in Saudi Arabia is.
Yeah, I think the more interesting thing is is, and every time he wins, he gets a bonus.
Yeah. He's going to win every game. And my other winner was Messi. This guy is making the MLS
look like a joke. Yeah. He's played six cameos, nine goals. Like no one can stop this guy.
I mean, this is like, it's great, but it's good for this sport. We want to see him score goals.
Of course, but it's kind of just sad this 35 year old. Obviously, he's the greatest. Yeah,
just comes in whoops, everyone's ass. It's good. It's good for this board. I think it creates,
it will help the competition too. It'll improve over time. Yeah. I also think I really like
Saudi Arabia game plan is very much a China game plan when it comes to like chess. Saudi
knows which China didn't embrace properly, which is American culture or just culture in general.
China didn't embrace. Intentionally. Yeah. They didn't want it. Does they want to control
their population? Saudi is like, we need to embrace culture. And they went like the golf thing
unbelievable. Now they got Neymar and they got so many other alliances. They're going to shift
the, the perception of the Middle East in a way 20, they're like our kids perception in the
Middle East will be like, that's the coolest place to go. I promise you when they grow up,
that'll be their Las Vegas. That'll be their meek of nose. That'll be the shift will happen
so fast where you're going to be like, oh, this modern cool city with every hot restaurant
nightclub in the world. Why would he want to go there? Yeah. And what's interesting is the NBA
players who've had the best highest most guaranteed contracts of any sport. They're all getting
jealous of this Saudi stuff. LeBron posted, uh, this is like three weeks ago after the
mess you offer. I think the mess you have for whatever. Like me running to Saudi
in his forest camp running to Saudi. Like I'll take the money. Yeah. And then Yannis tweeted
yesterday, the best Saudi duo in the league him and Neymar, like they're like, look, if I can catch
a guaranteed 500 million to do effectively nothing, they'll do it. They're gonna, they're gonna
snatch an NBA guy. I just don't know who will go first. Maybe it's James Harden. I don't know
if such a once in a lifetime opportunity, like if you have anything right now that the Saudis would
want to buy or invest in companies, you're an athlete, you know, like it's such a window.
And it's a short window. What does Neymar have to do two years, three hundred and seventy million?
You're not asking them to live their the rest of his life. No. And he's the private jet to go
wherever he wants on the off days. Good for him. Great deal. That's a great deal.
My winner, I'm sure you guys must have talked about it in one of the ones we, one of the ones I
miss. But Dave Portnoy, I mean, just the more that comes out about, you know, him essentially,
like almost using his, whatever you want to call it, what's the word? Like a polarizing,
you know, the fact that ESPN didn't want to be affiliated with him is really what got him that
deal and was able to buy back his company for a dollar. And look, when that's your like company
that you started from scratch, and I'm sure he has a lot of emotional attachment to it. And now,
really, he has so much money. Doesn't matter if they become the biggest thing in the world.
I mean, it's just such a win. Yeah. Yeah. It's a big one. Yeah.
Which up, Davey day trader, it's really funny because I don't know whether like,
I don't know how to say this. He seems like a very smart guy. But he doesn't see, I mean, he just,
he's got a lot of impressive wins under his belt.
I think he's got incredible instincts. Yeah. He's a gut guy.
Even it comes to like finding, you know, the call her daddy crew and like, there's just,
he's made really great picks. Yeah. Yep. Interesting. Okay. Do you, who's your loser?
My loser is the stock market. I think it's kind of, you know, the last couple days, it's lost
a lot of momentum. And you need catalyst in order to similar to anything in life. Stock
markets very much about momentum and confidence. And the stock market needs something to give it
to catalyst. And if inflation is still here, now oil prices and commodity prices are rising again.
We know the consumer is soft. China is like damn near and floating. I think Evergrande just filed
bankruptcy. Yeah. That was my loser. Yeah. So if it, I don't care what anyone says,
we need to make sure China does not implode. It is not good for us. Like we got to make sure
that we're aligned with them and making sure we save their companies. I think they'll do it on
their own. Yeah. So the government will do it on their own. So the reason why, to why I think
the stock market is just a blip. I think China is a perfect example. And the rest of the world
is effectively uninvestable at scale. Yeah. If you have to put hundreds of billions dollars,
where's the safest place? It's the US stock market. Yeah. No longer China. Europe hasn't been an
option for 20 years. Yeah. You're not going to India. You're not going to people going to India.
But not you're not putting 500 billion away. Yeah. You're putting five billion. Yeah. Yeah.
And I'm talking about just institutional funds that have to manage public equities because that's
where most people's money is. And you can't go to South America. It's too risky and you can't
do it at scale. You can do it small. The US stock market's the only option.
Yeah. Over a long period of time. Yeah. Yeah. But the bond market's a great option right now.
US bonds. Sure. I'm talking 10, 15 years. Yeah. Not two years. Yeah. But my loser was around the
next three to six months. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Fair. So yours was China. Yeah.
The country's economically imploding. They talk about deflation. Their
Evergrande is the biggest property builder in the country. 340 billion of debt. They
file for bankruptcy. Home sales are down. Which is what the fascinating part to me is not that all
those data points are there because they should be there because their domestic economy hasn't
improved since COVID is that the data is actually leaking. That is bad. Yeah. That's a really
scary part. Yeah. Yeah. Because normally they control the narrative. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Well,
you know what? That's good. I mean, I listen. I feel like the China conversation got a little scary
there for a long time. And this this feels a little I know that there's chain reaction and ripple
effects. And we don't want them to completely fail. But you know, feels good to know that
it's not all rosy and world domination over there. Yeah. No. I know. I'm wondering if they're
purposely doing this. I think we're I think we're a year into the Zohan podcast. So they have
nine years left, right? Yeah. I mean, this is bad year to kick it off. Yeah. You're right. He might
have been too long. It was my loser. Oh, my loser is the, you know, the real life family that was
portrayed in the blind side. You know, Michael or the football player who was the movie was about
has come out and said that that was not a great relationship. And the family sort of secret
secretively, you know, without kind of beyond his realm of understanding had him in a conservatorship.
They took advantage. They made some money. They did some stuff that he didn't feel was right. And
you know, it just sort of such a sweet, sweet tale that was told in that movie and
they kind of popped the bubble, you know, and now Twitter is demanding Sandra Bullock be stripped
of her Oscar, which is ridiculous. But yeah, you know, things aren't always what they seem on
the big screen. Yeah, look, it's similar to I was reading this article about like the Flaming
Hot Cheetah movie that came out. Apparently, that's all fake too. Yeah.
Nothing is real. What's the Flaming Hot Cheetah? There's a movie about, you know,
the story that his janitor created at the janitor, Frito Layer, Cheetos created something like
Flavor. I forgot what it was. Flavor. And someone came out and said, we just, we ran with it
because it was just good marketing. But it's all bullshit. Yeah. Yeah.
Seems like most things. That's why the lasers don't sound too crazy. Yeah, you're right. Hey,
you never know. We might find out in a few years. No, a decade. A decade. Duck gets caught with a
laser in his garage. Yeah. I mean, like if you think about just, oh yeah, we have like a confidence
credibility issue right now in the world to the fullest. Yeah. Um, okay. Content recommendations,
D. The mind is the Johnny Manzell. Like if you like sports, I don't even think you have to like
sports. No, like I watch it with my wife too. She loved it. Um, she was entertained. She was
obviously the ending was a bit sad. She felt like, but I was like, this kid's 30 years old. He's
going to have an incredible back half of his life. He seemed relieved of the burden of, uh, yeah,
he didn't want to, he didn't want that life. Give him a podcast on bar. So he'll be fine. Oh, yeah.
When I lose, we lose with, with, with fuck it. Yeah. Yeah. Um, on Netflix, by the way, um,
on it. Yeah. A movie from over 20 years ago, I started watching last night. Some of all fears
with Ben Affleck and I'm believable. Never seen it. From the Tom Clancy novels. It's like the Jack
Ryan agreement. Yeah. Morgan Freeman. Yeah. I mean, it was like, you should watch this. You would,
you've never seen it? No, I have, but it's been so long. It's from 2002. Yeah. It's great. You
love it. No, it's awesome. It's so good. Love it. Okay. Uh, mine. I'm going to go fighting again.
UFC 292 Sean O'Malley. And 292 matches. Those are just the paper views. I think. Yeah, I think
they're just the paper views. And they have like fight nights, which is a different thing,
which is like on ESPN. Uh, Al Jermaine Sterling. Sugar Sean O'Malley.
Uh, yep. Should we go in Boston? Who's supposed to win? I think the favorite is Al Jermaine
Sterling, but sugar Sean, if you saw a photo of him, you'd know him. He's like friends with all
the full-send guys and always with Logan Paul. So you basically can never have a Saturday night.
There's a fight every weekend. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. You guys want to go to dinner? Call me on Friday.
Okay. Okay. That's it. We got a shout out. Yeah. We have one shout out.
From Helen Joel, she works with me a ghost. So shout out to Helen to her friend Kate Boggs.
Congrats on closing your Amazon deal and you're welcome for turning you on to group chat.
And she had a special request. What's special? She wanted me to say that she's my favorite ghost
employee. Oh, okay. Wow. Wow. But I said, there's a character looks technically kind of work
ago. An Eric and Jordan. That's a lot of favorite employees. A lot of favorites. A lot of favorites.
Yes. Okay. Well, shout out to Kate and shout out to Helen for putting people on the group chat.
You know, yeah, she's out here pushing us. I like it. The people in my gym started listening
to group chat. So now when I go in there to work out, they're like, oh, yeah, you know, the
dog market, you know, like, they're like just picking up. That's awesome. What about the conversation we had?
So yeah, you just put Jay Powell as your pie bag. You just fucking beat the shit out of them.
That'd be a good content. That'd be good for the group chat page. Yeah, that would go pretty viral,
like on thin talk. And people might show up in my door. I feel like you're threatening our
beloved Jay pal. All right. That's all we got. We'll be back on Sunday. Are we all here Sunday?
Yeah, we'll all be together. Everyone have a great rest of your week.
We'll see you later. Peace.