NHL Best Bets | Conference Finals Game 1 Betting Preview

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Stop by one of their local stores for a free tire safety and pressure check and remember guys you get 30% shorter average weight times when you buy and book online at discount tire dot com. We're in this game. Hello everyone welcome back to Line Change, the NHL betting podcast from the Action Network presented to you by Bet MGM. My name is Michael Leiboff joining me once again. My co-host Nick Martin, Nick Final Four of the 2023 Stanley Cup playoffs is set. Carolina vs Florida in the East, Vegas vs Dallas in the West will start Carolina and Florida that series begins on Thursday night with Game 1 and Raleigh, series line, Keynes minus 135 right now, Katz coming back plus 115 and the game one line. As you'd expect is pretty much on the ball there too, same price as minus 135 plus 115 total set of five and a half right now. The over five and a half is juiced to minus 120 as it sits. Actually both game ones are set at five and a half which is kind of interesting considering where we've been at with totals this season. We talked a little bit on our podcast last night about Carolina and Florida but let's dive a little bit deeper here. I think the way I'm going to be betting this series is I'll be trying to play Florida from behind in the series whether they go down one nothing whether they go again again to one even three two I think that Florida will eventually be able to drag Carolina deep into this into the series like into the sixth the championship rounds game six and seven and and I just like them more in those situations than I would Carolina because I think Florida's it sounds simple to say but the goals should come easier for Florida right they can kind of rely on the skill and the being clinical in the finishing whereas Carolina these work pretty hard generally speaking not as much against the devils but generally speaking they need to work pretty hard to score so my overall view here in terms of just the series line will be Florida if they fall behind. Yeah I agree with that I think that a look I actually like for game one is the over at five and a half I don't I don't I think I could see this being a little bit like the last two series is of round two where I don't know I think over five and a half minus one twenty seems like something you just lock in now games are a little higher scoring at the starter series we've seen it the refs still call stuff I think there's some good angles about how this can break open I still don't think um Florida's really defended all that well we've talked about it a lot but Brodsky's been as good he's ever been in his entire career but obviously any stretch like that comes with some some favorable luck so I think we could see Carolina caused problems for Florida I'm still not entirely sure about Freddie Anderson if Florida can get some of their some quality looks going the other way so I just I think five and a half seems like a bit of a low mark I think probably almost everywhere will be at six by game time so I think that's a solid look to play in game one uh and before we'll dive a little deeper into like series props in a second but before I do that I should note that Carolina is your Stanley Cup favorite at the moment but I mean everybody's between two two to one and four to one hurricanes plus two hundred nights right behind them plus two 25 stars plus three 25 and Panthers they're the biggest long shot on the board uh plus three 75 and then Kant's mike Jack Eichl is your new Kant's my favorite at the moment Sebastian Ajo is right behind him Eichl's plus 550 Ajo six to one then our man Matt Kachuk we gave him out a few weeks ago is a good long shot when the Panthers are down three two to the Bruins but he's down to plus 750 Freddie Anderson rope a hints at nine to one mark stone 10 to one Bob Raski 10 to one Ottinger 14 Pivowski 16 uh Carter Verhagey Martin Eichl and Brent Burns are all between 16 and 22 to one uh as is much more to Martin Nook and Aiden Hill I'll stop there um I think there's one really good one there I think you might you're kind of talked about it uh out of the guys we've never I think we said he had a bit of an edge in round one I said at least that I wouldn't add Edinger I think you can play hints at plus 900 for sure he's got a pretty big lead on the on the that award I think of Dallas wins and you know I like I like the way Dallas played that series I think they deserve a lot of credit for game seven when I'm looking at this even if you ask me not considering odds who I thought I wouldn't would win out of these four teams I honestly barely have an answer which I think is pretty lame for looking analyst but I think it's true like I really don't know what to think I guess I mean Carolina but I think there's definitely enough of an edge to play hints there it seems like he's got a pretty good case on the Dallas front he just came through in the biggest game and he was the you know clear cut leader before that so he was probably 20 to one before game seven and and you'll be happy to know that uh myself the producer of our podcast Matt Mitchell and our buddy Steve Petrela threw in a three leg parlay hints to win the consplyph Yannick sinner to win the French Open and the Brisbane Lions to win uh the minor premiership in the Australian Football League which is uh the team that finishes with the best regular season record so like the president's trophy uh so that's how I played hints which is definitely gonna work out um but yeah I I agree with you I think at this point when you're when you're getting to this uh stage like the one team I think where it's up in the air is Carolina and that's kind of yeah and I mean it gets up in the air close like don't get me wrong there's a chance Edinger has yeah but I mean 35 playoff and scoring for sure I'm just I'm just making the point like I think you know I like I think you know you could he could the one thing I will say though is why I felt kind of safe playing hints at uh before game seven in that special way was uh if you look at like had Dallas drawn Edmonton in the conference final then on jr would have had to been a story but against Vegas it's it's not as much right like and same thing if they play Florida or Carolina it's not like they're taking on an offensive juggernaut um yeah and another note too like you look at that so Pavelsky's 15 to 1 that's giving us a better price on hints I think the gap there's pretty massive right now yeah uh you know Pavelsky just had the really good series but not only is hints producing at the highest level I think his play looks the most dynamic he's doing a lot both ways he's on the penalty kill causing like just a raucous everywhere so yeah he's got the hair he looks sweet everything about this is great yeah so I think he's got a good case yeah so the reason I wanted to bring these odds up while we're still talking Carolina Florida is I think that you can feel pretty confident in uh if you if you did bet matt kachuk along with me like uh a couple weeks ago that if the panthers do win the Stanley Cup it's either him or Pavrosky and it's like yeah I was gonna say that one's getting close yeah but like you said the other day like it's really hard to imagine but browsky keeping up so I feel all right with kachuk but it could be a good series for him to get his stats done that's true too because it's seen how Carolina plays and kachuk really tailed off production wise at the end of that but he still was the story it was hilarious how everybody was just not sure of him um but pretty much too more experience there yeah Carolina to me is pretty interesting from in this market uh because ajo was pretty quiet in the devil series uh I don't think either one of us expects Jordan Martinuk to uh play it the pace we saw from from him in the last series and if you look at their playoff stats right now ajo still leading them he's just underpoint per game at with 10 points and it's Martinuk that it's just for fast uh at eight sets yarvis has eight points so does bern so to stall like this team just spreads it all out so you could get like like I don't even see his his name on the board um but you could get a huge series from someone like Stefan nason for example right and I think slave it and slave it on the board uh he's definitely interesting too so he's he's 50 to 1 uh at that mgm so like if you see one of these guys in that that range like if you just kind of sort Carolina's uh scoring in the playoffs and you look in that six to eight point range of which there's like 10 guys I think you can cross off some guys like peche and use just kind of use logic because like Jordan stall to me could be an interesting one too given like the way people talk about his two-way game if he shuts down kachok uh but yeah I I'm I'm saying all this without giving you a recommend a recommended bet but more strategy where like you said slavin a guy like that that you want to that you want to you know hit your wagon too if you want some Carolina futures I think is totally fine because I don't think ajo should he should be the favorite on this team but he shouldn't be so much shorter than everybody else yeah I think that's a fair way of looking at it slave ins one where you you're probably not getting the guys to give the votes but if you were to think about it on a true basis of if you took him away from the team how hurt are they he might be probably one of the last picks if you asked Rod Brendan more I bet he'd be probably inside the first two he'd say he'd never want to lose but um and then in terms of just series props we talked I talked about going back to Nick Cousins in the market for most goals in the series he's 151 out there now he was 201 that leave off money you know the bookmakers are they showing that price real quick when they saw me coming uh anything for you uh on this one yeah I've got two I like Nick Hiss uh to lead from Carolina he's been I mean he's their second mess goal score on the regular season he looked really good versus New Jersey I think that this series can set up well for him for some of the same reasons it set up well versus New Jersey some of the reasons that I think it's set up well versus kneelander in the Toronto series in terms of the match ups he'll get and his ability to skate and create off the wall end in transition so I think Nick Hiss and I like Seth Jarvis those would be my two that are Carolina's third and fourth favorites I think but regardless 10 to 1 12 to 1 for each of them I think those are both very playable I think they're yeah you can get natures in a chance you can get natures and Jarvis at Betem GM both of them at 12 to 1 um I don't hate those at all we we talked about cock and yemi on the last one kind of being on our short list and uh his number is just too short at 22 um I think if you're looking for like a more reasonable long shot on florida my answer would probably be like Anthony de claire at 30 to 1 Sam Bennett I wish wish was a little bit longer but he's only 14 um but yeah I think uh Carolina natures Jarvis are are fine uh at their number and we'll see hockey betting season is here so get it on the action with the king of sports books sign up with Betem GM using bonus code action and get up to one thousand dollars paid back and bonus bets if your first bet doesn't win visit Betem GM.com for terms and conditions Arizona Colorado Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Louisiana Michigan Mississippi Nevada New Jersey New York Ohio Pennsylvania Puerto Rico Tennessee Virginia Washington DC West Virginia Wyoming or Ontario only must be 21 or older to wager 19 or older in Ontario new customer offer all promotions are subject to qualification and eligibility requirements rewards issued as non-withdrawable free bets or site credit free bets expire seven days from issuance excludes Michigan disassociated persons please gamble responsibly gambling problem call 1-800-NEX-STEP in Arizona 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200,000 people all right on to uh Vegas and Dallas Vegas is the home team for game one uh this series price is minus 130 uh the nights are slight favorite so both of these series pretty close to coin flips uh and then game one Vegas is a minus 135 favorite Dallas coming back plus 115 over under like I said is five and a half a series props are gonna start populating pretty soon but we'll have a pretty good idea of like a short list here and uh i'll flip it to you on what you have i'm not i would say i like Dallas i wish the numbers a little longer just because of the goaltending edge but uh yeah i think that's in similarly speaking to like in a similar way like i think you can probably wait till later in the series uh to get Dallas at like a better price if it's to one or something like that yeah i agree i think the goaltending edge is significant um and this could be the type of series where that really shows through but Vegas played really really well versus um the others they deserve a lot of credit i really didn't have much as a side when i looked at this it could be a sneaky good series for as much as people and myself are kind of ragging on it i bet this will actually pretty entertaining but and then the one uh i'll probably be watching to see where some of the goals scores from that night's second line goes i think they've put uh nikwah with William Carls and Riley Smith and they looked really really good i thought they were a good target in game six versus Edmonton and they did pay off on that front so i'll probably be watching for hopefully a really good number on Carls and or the other one i think if nikwah is a super big long shot i don't even know what he has one goal in the playoffs get one goal for one goal four points but he's great for them in that one playoff run he's got some good finish he spent a lot of time on the fourth line and the scary thing is they you know their lines are pretty interchangeable they got a lot of guys they could move all over the place and that how it ends Stevenson unit wasn't really working at the end of the last series so we'll see but was one where like if he's crazy long i think you can take a reasonable punt on that and then we don't really talk about Vegas in the cons mites conversation but theirs is pretty all over the place too yeah i wouldn't think i think i think it's the favorite i think so you know what the reason i don't think i it's as wide open right now is because i close coming off a series where he out outplayed Conor McDavid you know he beat Conor McDavid yeah but i mean marcha so yeah but i just think that's why so there's so much hype around i close performance because they were one verse one and two in the draft and wow i go you know he's going through and and have the better numbers that McDavid and whatever so there's so much talk about him right now but i would i guess like the general point is it's not crazy to think that he just has a quiet series he does that you know he'll just kind of disappear from yeah like i don't think he has he has a big enough edge on like a couple guys and on a very competitive team for that right now where like you can bet him at that it's kind of yeah yeah it's not the situation where you say like if you're gonna bet Vegas to win the Stanley Cup you might as well just bet Eichol i would not uh i would not agree with that but yeah he is he is your account my favorite at the moment the then it's stone and then after that i mean the next the next night uh on the list is eight and hill uh at 22 to one so i know the first like two Angelo then that and then obviously marcha so i mean i'm marchers i was sitting at 30 petri-angel out 66 uh Stevenson 40 uh yeah Stevenson i like we'll see where the numbers open if Stevenson is in that you know 22 like cock and yummy range which i don't think he will be uh i would play that even though he's what like shooting something like 40 percent yeah and that line kind of fell apart a little but um small sample size yeah and that's going to be one of the really interesting battles of the series is like whose depth guys kind of keep keep it going and how does that look yes Michael Amadio still going to be the best player in the NHL for the series yes and i do think one through six baguettes have is considerably better defense core but i mean it's close they're both really good uh one other thing i wanted to note was for this one is i will be looking to play some Jason Robertson props at some point the guy can't go yeah but you're getting the the now i know i know i'm score a zillion gold i'm talking like i'm talking like two score two plus he was he was like 40 to one to score hatrick tonight and i bit on that and he almost did i mean what he hit a post he had that back hander like on another night he did but i mean rope he was still longer to score tonight it's crazy isn't that not flying so i i think it's yeah like if you're gonna target that line the way i keep looking at it is i like that line they're playing good and and you you know Robertson's gonna score soon but it's also like you're really betting into the he's due narrative i think when you're like looking at it uh the other two or longer goal score prices what i mean if i were to do i'd almost say play this series play the series leader on goals because yeah it's hot yeah that's kind of the original one so actually there's a couple of players that perhaps you can make an argument because i think the scoring in the series will be more spread out than just like hints pivolsky Robertson and then you know the ico line so we could we could see you know someone kind of come from nowhere like you said nikwah i think is interesting and if you're gonna bet like a long shot like that i would not tell my nose that you know max domi who i think has been really good whether or not he can you know you would need it to be a short series dallas win um white johnston uh and dad and of as well i think those three guys for dallas would be the ones i'd be looking at at long prices uh yeah the thing that scares me on that is the freaking nights penalty kill giving too big of an edge to the yeah to the other yeah and that's hard to hide that's where the because vegas was really really sharp about five on five okay i think that's reality of it game six they gave up a lot of shots but there wasn't that much quality um i mean when you think about inhales performance yes it was really good down the stretch of that game but the first goal we can't talk about first goal saw second goal is made like i mean i don't know it's not like he was brilliant so we'll see i'm not entirely buying the hype yet but it'll be quite something of biggest really does get it done with uh eight inhale in the net yeah probably a fair counterbalance to their hundred and fifteen million dollar salary though but anyways uh all right that'll do it so yeah for game ones you like the over in cats and canes i actually think i'll join you on that one like you're betting on babrowski at this point to just continue to be outrageously good and i think it i think that's a good look um stars for me in terms of just series stuff and i'm gonna wait it out and i would lean towards dallas in game one as well i just think that aunt and jubris's hill will show so mostly dallas any final thoughts for you before we wrap no we have a few days that's it there we go uh yeah make sure to get those nick cousins bets in before the number shortens even even further and for nick martin and michael lee buff thanks for listening to line change thanks to our sponsors bet mgm we will see you uh in a few days action network reminds you please gambler responsibly if you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 24-7 at 1-800-Gambler.