NHL Best Bets | Conference Finals Game 3 Betting Preview

Nobody wins. Let's everybody win. This is your climb. We're in this game. We're going to go back to the back of the back of the game. That impossible goal. These guys aren't good. Staring good. Your most proud is going for the bananas. As they say in hockey, let's do that hockey. Hello everyone. Welcome back to Line Change, the NHL betting podcast from the Action Network presented to you by our foreign sponsors. BedmGM, my name is Michael Liboff. Joining me, as always, is my co-hosts and friend Nick Martin. Nick, we are halfway through or almost halfway through maybe. The conference finals, the Panthers up to nothing on the Hurricanes. Both wins in overtime. The Vegas goal the night's up to nothing over the Dallas Stars. Both wins in overtime. Let's just set up real quick what the series lines look like. The Vegas goal the night's are minus 400 to win the Western Conference. Dallas plus 300 to advance. The Hurricanes are a little longer plus 330. They lost both their games at home. That's probably why the Panthers team of Destiny minus 425. They're a respective series. So right off the bat, let's just ask, let me ask you this question. My answer is no. I have a different way I'd like to go about it. But do you see any value backing either of these teams on the series line to come back? Maybe the Hurricanes, but I don't know. I don't think I want to back either of them on the series lines right now. Especially because I'm actually thinking that I kind of like two teams in the game in the game. I think I like Carolina and we'll go into that in more than a bit. I think I like Dallas, but I think I'd rather just back them in those spots than compared to doing the series line in these situations. There's one long shot bet I like out there right now. It's a cons might bet. If it feels like we're betting everybody to win the cons might, maybe we are. But if you're just out there looking for something fun to bet, I think Jacob Slavin for the Hurricanes is interesting at 80 to one. The Hurricanes have spread out the scoring so much in this postseason. The favorite for them. Let's say they come back and win like right now the betting favorite for them to win the cons might is Sebastian ah, when he's 15 to one. He's been pretty quiet. Since the Islander series. It's got one goal in his last seven games. He's got two points in the series, but they lost the first two games after him. It's Freddy Anderson a 20 to one. He didn't even play game game two after the long overtime game game one. And then it's Brent Burns who I think you can make a case for being interesting as well at. I think it's a really good game. I think it's a really good game. I think it's a really good game. I think it's a really good game. I think it's a really good game. I think it's a really good game. I think it's a really good game. I think it's a really good game. I think it's a really good game. I think it's a really good game. Martin Nook was the leading scorer for them in round two. And if they come back, it could be someone from the clouds to do it in round three. Meanwhile, Slavin, you know, I know he had a rough giveaway or mistaken game in game one in the fourth overtime, but he was really good in rounds one and two. His reputation is really well known around the league as the shutdown guy. If the hurricanes come back and beat the Panthers, it'll likely be because he turns. He turns the faucet off on Matthew Kuchuck and like shuts down the Panthers kind of high-end guys. And he should get a lot of credit. He'll be playing a ton over these next few games. I would I'd imagine as the hurricanes try to get back in it so I could see a narrative started to build around Slavin. If Carolina fights its way back, which is unlikely already. So that's why it's a long number. That is if I won, if you were going to play the hurricanes, I would consider that Slavin here. Yeah, I agree. I I wrote this up and posted this pre series and I couldn't agree more. I think the reason the numbers dropped obvious is they're down two games, but I think in terms of the argument that he's there MVP, those are all still in place. So I definitely like this at 80 to one. Back the Keynes, it's a little scary needing the vote on a defenseman, but I do feel like the word is kind of out that everyone knows he's actually their most important piece. So we talked about it before. I think if you ask Brandon more, he'd probably say that'd be the last guy he'd want to get injured. And isn't that an incredible start to the series, but I agree. If they if they turn it around, he's kind of in the most consistent force. So I like the thought process here with Slavin. And I mean, even if Anderson gets hot, he's never really been asked to do that much. He had a really good game one, but I still just, I don't really think it'll be a thing where we're ever looking at it and saying Caroline is gold pender won them this top. So. And the last point on this one that I'll make is that. And any other team, I think in these playoffs, if Jacob Slavin was on those teams, he wouldn't get a he wouldn't have a chance of winning and getting the votes needed. Because his point totals are going to be muted compared to what we usually see for Khan Smith. And I think you got to go back to Scott Stevens, maybe for defensive defense men to win the Khan Smith. So yeah, it's a long shot for a reason, but that would be it. Let's jump into the games. So game three for Caroline and Florida's tomorrow night. That's Monday eight o'clock Eastern time. It's basically looking like a pick up with the way that this is going to set up. It's the Panthers are right as 115 Carolina slight slight slight on the dog. We had as 105 the totals five and a half. We might see a lot of people back in the draw at plus three 10. We'll see. But I'm with you here. I think that if there's a time to bet Carolina, it's now it's in game three. They've. You know, it's not too dissimilar from what we saw in the leaf series with Panthers. Like, think you can make an argument. Florida, whatever turned game one into a coin flipping a pretty effective manner and. I still think you're saying like coin flip at best though. Yeah, exactly. Yeah, but I can't say you can't say they stole it. Like that's not like an hour. No, and they played really good. No, we're time. Yeah, eventually was half the game game to they still like game game to was. Once I saw Caroline and was only up one nothing after the first is like they're in trouble. Like they that this is what we talk about with the hurricanes. Like, so it is following that same script, basically. And then Florida is an opportunistic bunch. They're very confident bunch. They came home against the Leafs. They took advantage of game three. The team of destiny narrative is now running rampant and we might even just see it take over and sleep into the betting market here. But I think that Carolina is absolutely worth a bet even if it's like minus one 10 minus one 10. Yeah, I agree. Like Florida has been so opportunistic. They're doing so many things well. They play a great playoff style. All of that. But I still think at the end of the day the biggest like causation of their success. And I think and I mean, obviously playoffs are different animal than the radio season. But I don't think that they've drastically turned things around, you know, like, like they should be winning nine out of 10 games versus playoff teams, which is exactly what they've done. They're winning every single one goal game, Bob's at like a plus 15 goal saved above expected, which is. Historic sample for a 10 game run, basically. So. I just think at some point their defensive play is going to come to roost a little bit. I don't think this combination of just scoring it exactly the right times and finishing off like such a high amount of your chances. Well, nothing goes in your net. It just doesn't seem very sustainable to me. So they might be able to close up the series. But I think right now we definitely still have a good enough number to take a chance with Carolina here and what's pretty much a do or die spot. Yeah, the Panthers are. You know, it's funny the credit that they're I feel like they're getting credit in the wrong places. They're getting. It's one of those things that we talk about. There's so much parody in league and there's so much varinant variance. And those factors are real. Like we're talking about a team that would have not been in the playoffs if Pittsburgh had beaten Chicago as minus 450 favorites. And they wouldn't have played a Bruins in the first round to like John Tavares and it scored that overtime winner. Sure. Like, and I mean, at that point it was out of their control. Like everyone talks about like all the stuff that they've turned around. But yeah, we'd be talking about a failure if Pittsburgh doesn't choke, which I mean credit to them. They've gone to playoffs and they are playing great, but it's just really interesting. He could chuck. He could check. Called them out for being soft. And I think there are something like 16 two and one since that. Or something like 16 five and one including the playoffs, whatever it was. But yeah, I think the hurricanes are the way to go. You tip your cap if if the Panthers beat you here. Pretty surprised that Matthew could chuck is still the favorite over surrogate. But I agree. I agree. This is the real. Just getting a little scary. Yeah, it's kind of a hot topic too. Because you always like I was seeing a lot of posts where one person would say like, you know, after like the overtime winners, I think you sell a lot of accounts being like, give him the consmith now. And then there's a lot of people commenting, well, Bob's done this and this. I'm in favor. I actually think Bob. I'm pretty early in the run. But I actually think he's cooled off. Like he was going to really drag them into the fight. I mean, he's got the two overtime winners. So it's hard to say that. But I was like, I'm way more than a point for me. I mean, the numbers look good. But but since mid Toronto series, he's been a lot less dominant. It's just they're still winning games. And you know what? You know what? You know what you're going to see if he does win that consmith. The highlight everyone's going to point to is him. Back checking on that two on one, making like the diving poke check in the right. And I mean, everyone's doing like there's the McDavid did that on whatever that night's breakaway was. I'd go ahead like four of those in the last two games like the icos been ridiculous. I mean, yeah, those things are great. I just I think every star on every team that's going to win a cup is doing that. It's kind of the reality of it, which I mean, he's the only one. You just won't see John Tavares do that. It's good. Okay, folks, summer is nearly here. So let's talk about Shady Ray's Friends of the Action podcast family. Shady Ray's is an independent company offering a world class polarized sunglasses. Just as good as any expensive pair you've worn. And like our unshakeable gambling spirits, their frames are incredibly durable. Plus Shady Ray's offers the most insane protection in all of Iowa. Every pair of their sunglasses is backed by lost and broken replacements. 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Call or text the Tennessee Red Line at 8-0-0-8-9-7-8-9 or call 1-800-7-7-7-9-6-9-6-9-6-In-Nississippi. In Ontario, if you have questions or concerns about York gambling or someone close to you, please contact Connex Ontario at 1-866-531-2600 to speak to an advisor free of charge. Sports betting is void in Georgia, Hawaii, and Utah, or any other states where prohibited. The states and stars game three. Dallas, yeah, that was a tough way to lose. So they blow out late lead and quickly into overtime. Chandler Stevenson scores to give Vegas a 2-0 lead going back to Dallas. Stars are minus 135, nights plus 115, and the over under is 5-1-1-2. It's funny with these two matchups, both series being 2-0. I feel like you have a pretty good idea of just what the Hurricanes Panthers, like the first 15 minutes is going to look like. Just like the Hurricanes just stepping on the gas and trying their best to just throw everything they can towards the Panthers and on. I really don't know how the stars are going to approach this one at all. I think they've played a really good game game too, just didn't get the rub of the luck, end up losing it overtime. Here we are. Good news for them. It's Jason Robertson starting to find the back of the net. Bad news is, of course, they're giving up goals at very in-opportun time and having some defensive breakdowns. So, what do you think? I like the stars. I think maybe you're not thrilled to bet them at minus 135 when the games have been close, but it's one of those ones where I'm just happy to put the money in on the stars and see if Vegas can actually take a 3-0 hold on a series that's been super competitive. And Edinger's probably got a little more in the tank. I think that Vegas has a more well-rounded defensive court. It's kind of showing. I think they have less guys you'd see do it. Sootered it on that game-tying goal. But I think they showed enough that I'm willing to back them at home in this huge game-through spot. So, I like that. And, yeah, that game too. I think one of my issues with the playoffs is, and I haven't even been that into seeing the stars win. I've kind of been a little less on their train than I think most analysts have been. And even that, I just feel like I want to see the team that controls play for 55 minutes win sometimes. It feels to me that there's almost been too many of those, and this is where I think some people who aren't into hockey as much, what their beef kind of is, is that it's a lot of the time you can't control it enough. It feels to the luck-orientated. And that's kind of what I felt about game two, where I was just like, I just watched this whole thing and Dallas played so good. And then they just kind of choked it with two minutes left. And, yeah, but, yeah, and then that's the other thing. Like, Hill's been solid. He's done just enough. He hasn't given up any softies, which is all that Vegas really needs with how they're playing right now. Yeah, that's the thing here. So, if you were to ask, like I said, I don't really think either team is worth a bet on the series. But the reason I think Dallas is like tempting in other ways is just, I don't know if Aidan Hill's going to keep this up. It's weird. Like, it's, I mean, we're fully aware of how random goal-tending can be. And maybe the one thing, like I keep banking on adding dirt to steal some games. He hasn't really been doing that at all. So, who knows? But it's insane. Like, do we even know if adding dirt is actually going to be one of these goalies who's actually good for like five straight seasons? It's still possible that even that might not be true. So, yep, it feels like right now it's just very hard to predict these sorts of things. But I'm kind of comfortable that I think Dallas are going to control more of the play and bring a similar effort to great game two. And if they did that, I'd still be happy to bet them at minus 130 or minus 135. All right. So, that's it. Just those two games. We'll be back Tuesday night after stars and nights to talk about the game fours and maybe by that time. We'll have some series go on. I hope so. I really hope we don't have two three-oh series. The Hurricanes games have been pretty entertaining. I would say, or both games have been pretty decent games. It's way for how this interested some people have been. There's a lot going on. There's a lot going on in Toronto that's distracting everybody. That's the problem. Really, it's everybody's distracting the label offs. Yeah. I'm caught up in the Calgary news. Big news around here. And we still haven't heard from Lululee Marillo yet. His end of season address. We'll keep waiting. But we'll see everybody in a couple of days. Good luck in your game. Three bets. Maybe Jacob Slavin. But the next time we talk is scored a hat trick and all of a sudden he's a favorite. For Nick Martin, I'm Michael Eiboff. This has been Line Change. Thank you for listening. Action Network reminds you, please, Gambler responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 24-7 at 1-800-Gambler.