NHL Best Bets | Conference Finals Game 4 Betting Preview

Nobody wins. Let's everybody win. This is your climb. We're in this game. I'm going to drag the buck. Backhand is won! That impossible goal! These guys aren't good. Scary good. Your most proud is going for the bananas! As they say in hockey, let's do that hockey. Hello everyone. Welcome back to LineChange, the NHL betting podcast from the Action Network presented to you by BetMGM. My name is Michael Liba. Joining me for another episode is my co-host Nick Martin. Nick, we are staring down the barrel of what has been perhaps the most pedestrian playoff round in Stanley Cup history. Very strange to see both the NBA and NHL walk down this path simultaneously, but that's what we got. The Carolina Hurricanes are in an 0-3 hole against the Florida Panthers, and the Dallas Stars are in one against the Vegas Golden Knights. We'll start with Carolina and Florida. Hurricanes are even money on the road. Game 4 against Florida. Over under 5.5. The line is plus 850 to come back, and when the series, that number is nowhere near good enough. I don't think to get involved. I would say that if you are interested in the Hurricanes, once again, I would look towards the consmythmarket and find your guy. If you're right about a team coming back from an 0-3 hole, becoming the 15 in NHL history to do it, God, you better be getting that better than 9-1, I think. For Game 4, I was kind of leaning towards the over, it's plus money, 5.5. I could see a couple different ways this game opens up wide, but I'll pass it off to you first before I dig in. Yeah, so I'll just talk quick, too, from a handicapping thing on the 3-0 leads, because I fully agree with you. The numbers will prove that you're right really quick, and this is the exact same thing our NBA podcast has been telling people this week. Because I think the thing with these 3-0 leads and the sports books, I think there's a lot of people are going to sit out here and bet on a team to finish off a 3-0 series. I don't think they're going to get a lot of the large wagers you would need to make anything off that. So I think it's just one of those things you have to keep in mind that they kind of can just post a number that's probably not exactly fair, and then also a lot of people hurry won't really calculate it, and then it's a fun bet. I think I know in the NBA the Celtics are probably going to get some money poured on here if they close this off. So I don't know. I agree. I think I actually like to be under again in this Carolina game, just because I think it's one of those things like, I don't know if they're going to drastically change their philosophy. I don't think they're going to sit here and try to open it up. I feel like it's one of those things you kind of just have to stick with what you're doing and hope you come out on the right end of the spectrum. I think Florida's really settled into a rhythm where I almost think defensively game three was maybe their best game. Again, like they had the two posts and maybe some favorable luck, but it seems like they're kind of settling into a rhythm that they know they don't want to open it up and that you're not going to score any middling goals whatsoever on Bovrowski right now. Not even strength. So I think that's there. I know there's been this weird trend where elimination games are oddly high scoring while game sevens aren't, but I think I kind of I liked it under. I could see the first period under being good again. Those were my thoughts there. And then the one thing that did work out in that last game, I was on Kachuk under on shots. I don't know if I'll go to specifically Kachuk, but I think there could be a good spot to back some panther shooters to go under their total. I think there's just the the Keynes are just they're not giving up much in the way of shots at all. Like if they're going to give up 20 shots, 21 shots, whatever. The Florida shot totals need to be drastically different than usual. And I think we are going to see them play like a super urgent tight lockdown game here. I don't know if I want to say like as a fact they'll get a better whistle, but you'd think some of those penalties aren't getting called again would probably be a fair way of putting it. I was pretty shocked with some of them, especially with how we know any child plow. Raffing seems to usually go where like once a team's at like three one or four one and calls. Typically that means they have to murder someone with the next call and that wasn't really the case in game three. So. I don't know. And I mean, if we're going to talk aside, I'm not betting either side really. I continue to think that Florida, I mean that that was probably the best game when they're doing some things really well, but like it still seems like they're just on the favorable end of winning every single one goal game when you could clearly point out that one or two more pucks could have gone in their net. And they're just finding a way to make it work over and over. So. I'm not willing to like flip my stance towards Florida being bedible at all here. I wouldn't really want to do that. But brovsky we talked about a little to when the cons might is really trended down all day long today I think a ton of people put together that it's not really good chuck right now and that I think some of the reason people were on that so heavy too is that. If you look at them versus Vegas, I think there's a really realistic world where Bobrovsky wins this cons might with them being the loser in the series. I think that's really realistic, especially because I actually think that Vegas is going to cave them in pretty heavy. Like it could be as bad as it's been in the last two series. So those are kind of all my thoughts on the series right now and kind of everything I guess. Yeah, the reason I'm looking towards the over if anything here is just I simply can't fathom. But brovsky playing at this level and I do think that you feel pretty comfortable Florida will get to ish against Anderson or and he's playing well he let up one goal last game and I think what three three goals and seven periods when you count the over times or whatever. But the breakdowns are there you you were the first one to kind of point out that if you need your goalie to be playing as well as Bobrovsky is playing the means that the breakdowns are there. Sebastian ahoh should have scored at least two. I think that was Florida's best defensive game. Yeah, like that's the crazy thing it seems like more people are kind of coming around on it now but like that might have been their best offensive game since like game three versus Toronto and maybe specifically just game three versus Toronto. I think one one one guy I am thinking about in props is Jack Drury. He was around it in game three playing with natures and stall looked like it was working for a little bit if that lines together if he's still in like the top six. I think he's he's an interesting shout for an eight angle score and that like five to one six to one range. He had like a couple chances where one puck hop over stick another where he was like the late guy in the slot and they just couldn't get him to puck so he's he's a guy I'll be targeting there but it would be the over some jury stuff or nothing for me in this one. It's the last kind of play that I think I'll like to I went on. Anderson under on saves the other night that could be another way to kind of target what I was saying earlier or depending on where it opens you could go the opposite and go with. I'm going to go with the bubble off ski over on saves, but it just feels like that's almost a safer way to tap into like the way it's going to go when like Florida just. I've lost a lot on this team this postseason run just tapping the idea there do for worse but those probably would have been really safe plays in a lot of these games because they just keep winning in that game script over and over and over. Okay folks summer is nearly here so let's talk about shady raise friends of the action podcast family shady raise is an independent company offering world class polarized sunglasses just as good as any expensive pair you've worn and like our unshakable gambling spirits their frames are incredibly durable. Plus shady raise offers the most insane protection in all of I aware every pair of their sunglasses is backed by lost and broken replacements. That means if you lose your shades or break them even a minute after they arrive shady raise will send you a brand new pair no questions asked. Plus if you don't love them that's fine nobody gets mad just exchange them for a new pair or even return them for free within 30 days. There's no risk when you shop with shady raise their team always has your back. It's not like betting the devil's or the next for example. So exclusively for our podcast listeners shady raise is giving out their best deal go to shady raise calm and use code action for 50% off two or more pairs of polarized sunglasses. Try for yourself the shades rated five stars by over 200,000 people. Hockey betting season is here so get in on the action with the king of sports books sign up with bedm jam using bonus code action and get up to $1000 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet doesn't win. Visit bedm jam.com for terms and conditions. Arizona Colorado Illinois, Indiana Iowa Kansas Louisiana, Michigan Mississippi Nevada New Jersey New York, Ohio Pennsylvania Puerto Rico Tennessee Virginia Washington DC West Virginia Wyoming or Ontario only must be 21 older to wager 19 older in Ontario. New customer offer all promotions are subject to qualification and eligibility requirements. Rewards issued as non-withdrawable free bets or site credit free bets expire seven days from issuance excludes Michigan disassociated persons please gamble responsibly gambling problem call 1-800 next step in Arizona 1-800-522-4700 in Colorado DC Kansas Louisiana Nevada, Wyoming or Virginia 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help in Michigan 1-800-Gambler in Indiana, Maryland, New Jersey or West Virginia 1-800-Bets off in Iowa 1-800-981-0023 in Puerto Rico call 877-8-HOPE NY or text HOPE NY in New York call or text the Tennessee Red Line at 800-889-9789 or call 1-888-777-9696 in Mississippi If you have questions or concerns about your gambling or someone close to you please contact CONNEX Ontario at 1-866-531-2600 to speak to an advisor free of charge. Sports betting is void in Georgia, Hawaii and Utah or any other states where prohibited. Promotional offer is not available in Nevada and New York. On to Dallas and Vegas. The stars seem to be the sharp side in game 3. I was both wearing an agreement with that and then they gave up a quick goal. Jamie Ben tries to take Mark Stone's head off and the game is completely out of hand by the 8 minutes into the first period. So that's that. Now, Dallas, I'm assuming since we are recording this at the business end of game 3 for them, I'm assuming will be will not be as short as they were in game 3 and we could see them at like minus 130 minus 125. Who knows maybe even a smaller price than that. It is hard, very hard to get behind the stars again. I just, I don't know if I could do it. It, Aiden Hill looks great. Jake Ottinger looks lost. The stars are, it's not disinterested, but you know, they're just not playing as well as Vegas right now, I guess. And it didn't play as well as the, as Vegas in game 3. And I think a lot of it was the Ben thing throws them off and dad and I'll get hurt and. And then that backhand that really put it away was a good month. Exactly. So. And you think, okay, they put in Wedgewood to get the Mojo going, you know, maybe try to snap it back and there was really no pushback. So it's hard. Yeah, Vegas is playing Unreal. I thought we made it like the case of that game 2. Dallas could have fared better tonight was the worst possible running of this game where it was just everything blew up on them. And now, yeah, I'm not really, I mean Dallas is probably a way to make this game competitive. It'll probably be one where it's hard to reach and find bets. I think I could see myself, I went on I call under on shots today. I think it maybe go there, but I think that maybe the one that could end up being quite inflated in game 4 is March or so shots. I might end up going under on his. I think these unders are starting to get somewhere. They're scoring it so tight. And I think not many people are transitioning this yet, but these two series has been quite low event. So. And especially even for as awful as, and I know it's a little different because they get up 3 early, but even for as awful as Dallas was tonight. Vegas really didn't put up that many shots and they had a zillion power plays too. So I think you could probably make the argument that it's going to be a similar thing. We're like in game 4 Vegas, maybe they win, but they might only put up like 20 shots on goal and that that betting another under could be something worth looking at. Especially in a game where it's like, I mean, I'm not going to sit here and say this is going to have probably many fun handicapping angles. I don't think it will. No, yeah. I think the other one, like the hurricanes panthers because of the way that these like the stylistic approach between the two teams kind of sets up for, you know, could be a best of 11 series and it could be 5 nothing Florida wears and you'll still find a decent angle on it just because of like the philosophies of these teams kind of lead to just chances for you to put together, whether it's like a lottery ticket, same game, parlay or just play or props. Whereas this one, it's just a little, it's not, it's just not the same. So. Yeah. And then the other one I might keep an eye on to is why Johnson over on shots. It was plus one 35 in today's game. I actually thought that was pretty surprising and playable. Even if I think probably four of his shots in series have been like dump ins from the blue line are kind of pointless, but it does seem like he's cruising over pretty easily for just still be plus one 35. All right. And that wraps up those games. Let's quickly talk about something that is near and dear to your heart and that's the world championships, which are going on right now in Finland. I'll let you take it away because frankly I haven't been watching it at all. I've been watching the IPL. I've kind of really. I'm really. Create it. And it wasn't the dream to come on here and talk about this in the middle of the third round, but I think when we're looking at the third round being what it is, it's interesting talking about it. It's interesting to go. And I think for all our American listeners, they have a really fun team there right now. That's kind of coming together. A lot of young guys playing good. So they play Czech Republic. I think if you can get plus 100 for them to win in three or in regulation, that's probably a decent look in the next game. And then when I'm watching Canada, Finland, that same day to see where the total is going to be. I think the under could be a decent look in those games and what's shaping up to be kind of a fun tournament. And then you're keeping an eye on the NHL draft odds. I think it's interesting to what's going on with Leo Carlson. Right now he's having a really, really good tournament. There were some sharper scouts saying that it was more of a possibility. He goes second and people think based off what was basically the fifth best dressed draft eligible season in the history of the SHL. So he's having a great tournament. I think that's something really fun to keep an eye on. Maybe he ends up sneaking in there. At second, I'm kind of watching the prices to see what I can get or maybe considering what I can get on him to go third. Just because it's starting to seem really hard to conceive that a team is going to reach and take Mitch Koff. Even though I do think it would be really reasonable and probably set them up well to have a chance to actually run towards the cup. So that's kind of my musings on that. And I think maybe we'll keep an eye on that and see if there's any interest to have a little more talk as the tournament gets into the final stages. And one more market that you've seen pop up that's. Oh, yes. Huge mark that we got to talk about. I am a little disappointed that the NHL draft kind of looks so chalky because gaming out last year ended up paying off really well for me with with Nemichko in second. But one market that may not be chalky and this is a totally new one. I totally knew one. I don't remember seeing this at all last year even on some worldwide markets, let's say. So after the Stanley Cup gets awarded, it goes to the captain of the winning team. So looking like it'll either be Mark Stone or Sasha Barkoff or the Panthers, if it's those guys. Looks pretty likely that it will be. And then that player hands it off to someone else and so begins the little victory lap. And it's always a fun kind of thing to discuss. We on my Islanders podcast, we always just talk about what it would be like to see Josh Bailey get handed the Stanley Cup and just how I wouldn't be able to handle it as a person emotionally. It looks like some bookmakers out there may be offering in kind of like a spirit of the Gatorade color market that you see at Super Bowls who will be the who will the captain of the winning team handed off to. And you've circled a guy and I think a light bulb went off when you when you mentioned his name. I think it's a brilliant brilliant bet. Yeah, so I think that it's really likely that if Florida wins Barkoff will hand the cup off to Mark Stull. He's been in the game so long. He's a playoff warrior. Everyone knows that he's been battling since way back with the Rangers with a thousand blocks and going through hell. Everyone on the team knows that. I think Palmer reases the type to respect them more than anyone. I don't know if that would specifically mean him telling Barkoff to do it, but it is something where I'm happy to punt on this at plus 1200 and just live with it. And maybe it's Bob Bovarski gets it second. They've got him as the favorite and that's very reasonable. But I think that it's probably Bob or him and this is a long enough number where we can take a chance. So I think for starters, that's a fun look. If you can get something in on that, that's a fun way to try to, you know, bet on Florida and you'll get some really exciting moment when the cup gets handed off. So I think that's a good bet and something fun. And then we'll see. I was kind of thinking about the Vegas guys. I actually didn't see the odds. They suspended them during tonight's game. It's pretty neat. Maybe one of the misfits with a letter. Yeah, it would probably be. I was going to guess it would be Marsha. So, right? Like, I think March or so. Maybe. I think you're shortlist is correct. It'll be one of the misfits Smith Carlson. Marshall. So, I mean, you go down that roster and it just wouldn't make sense almost for it to be. Anybody else is dressing. Oh, I guess he would want to. He's won a couple times. Yeah. Yeah. I like. I like the misfits. I want to read. Yeah. Yeah. I like the misfits. I want to read. Yeah. And we'll see. We'll see what that post because I could see them make Jack. I call like the favorite just because he's the biggest thing, you know, right? Like, true. Yeah. I know because I just get a quick look and stall is on it really jumped out at me is like, it basically should be Boroski and then him close. I did. And then no one else on Florida is probably. Yeah. I'm really good at nothing. All right. Well, that does it for this episode of line change. We'll see how these games will be bad. Yeah. We'll be covering some game. You know, if there's a game to talk about on the other side of Thursday, we will record Thursday night. If not, we'll see what the NHL throws at us in terms of their Stanley Cup schedule. It's going to be hilarious. Just absolutely hilarious. If the NBA and NHL both have like a seven day break and the NHL decides just to not take advantage of the fact that the NBA finals, like they could get completely away from it and get ahead of it. But we'll see. Until then, enjoy these two at least two games. And we'll see you in a couple of days. Action Network reminds you, please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 24 7 at 1 800 gambler.