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Hello everyone welcome back to Line Change, NHL betting podcast from the action I work
presented to you by BetMGM. My name is Michael Leebop joining me for this short episode.
It's my man Nick Martin, it's short because since we last spoke the Toronto Maple Leafs
have been eliminated. The Edmonton Oilers were just eliminated six or seven minutes ago
leaving us with five teams left. It's Florida and Carolina in the east and Vegas will host
either Seattle or Dallas for game one in the mid week out west just as we predicted.
The only game we have to talk about is Seattle and Dallas is eight o'clock eastern time Monday night
in Big D. The stars are minus 210, cracking plus 270. Seattle is now seven and six in the post
season 13 games. They've been an underdog in all 13 and for all road games they've closed I believe
plus 160 were higher. Yeah I think it's higher than that. Yeah because I thought I pulled the same
stat I think it was plus 165 for all of them. Incredible. They get no respect. I shouldn't say
that like like they're I think they get none. I wrote the article to back them in game five and
it was the classic thing like it lost and I heard a little bit of flak and it's like you know what
I think this is one of those cases where whether they finish the series or not there's one side
that held value in every single game. I would agree. Yeah so I'm standing by that here. Honestly
like where you're going obviously. Both both conference both Western Conference Semifinals
even have emitted and won this series like it was the same case right like the Oilers we kept saying
it. This team is completely overvalued and the hype trains outrageous. The Oilers would win a
game and everyone would be like oh my god they look incredible. They lose a game and they'd be like
this team can't lose two in a row. All right and that just completely screwed the prices up.
I got a little too swept up in that hype. I don't think I cashed in on Vegas enough.
It's been a challenging post season in that regard honestly.
It's been really challenging. I think it's been and I mean ultimately I think the biggest takeaway
you can have it's not fun to hear it. It's a classic Nick Martin take I think but the Variance
in Hockey is insane. I think that's the reality of it. Leon Drey said I'll just have one point in
the final four games. Like and we're talking about like who can play in the playoffs. What
like what do you mean nobody would have ever said that Drey said it was the problem four
games ago. It's just it's a comment on how it goes I think and how things really are.
Which works your point here because Vegas was doing a lot of things as well as the team.
I think that drives that a point also. So when you're previewing an entire playoffs and
you're previewing a series I make this point all the time. It's like okay we're looking at these
two teams. We're looking again to look at Florida and Carolina in the Eastern Conference.
We'll touch on it a little bit in this episode. We'll touch on it more when we reconvene
after Dallas and Seattle. But you can look at the two teams and the only way you can look at them
is as is. And then Leon Drey said I'll get slashed in the hand by Alex Petriangelo.
We're going to find out if it hurt him or not. I'm pretty sure it definitely messed with him a
little bit. You just you can't see those things coming. You can't see Eric Churnat going out
in the first you know whatever 30 minutes of a series. You can't see you know T
a fish eating everything else right. The officiating is like nobody wants to hear this drum beaten
but it's insane. Like I'm personally you know where I'm at on this. I haven't enjoyed the end of
the playoffs here because I think it is what it is. It's letting teams that I don't want to watch
win and and then people will complain about that. Everyone is cool. What the way it's wrapped.
Everyone's like this is playoff hockey. It is what it is. But then they're sad when Drey said
on McDavid are out and it's like. Keep going. It is. Yeah. But anyways it's it all adds up
it to this crazy. Dumb random tournament. Gold tending to we got to throw. Yeah right. Gold
tending is insane. We're going to see Aiden Hill versus is putting the Seattle Dallas
aside the three goalies in the final four are going to be Sergey Babrowski who everybody
coming into the playoffs. Like this guy's just his contracts and Albatross and it is like this.
I've said that. Yeah. So many times. Right. Like nobody's. All over the. He's probably the
the most unfancied commodity in hockey right. Like he was 100% I think you could are your hardest
contract to move in the last two. This probably would have been his. So it's going to be him.
Freddie Anderson who. Is the butt of every joke out there in terms of. Anytime his names brought
up or the hurricanes brought up. Aiden Hill. And either Jake Anger or Philip Grubauer who was by
goal saved above expected the worst goal in the league last season. So yeah I mean it's just.
It's insane and I think what ended up happening was last couple post seasons. Things never truly
got off the rails. No and credit to the. Like especially not. Like Colorado just worked teams
as they were kind of expected in price to do the Eastern Conference. You know Tampa Tampa Bay went
to their third straight Stanley Cup and the like the Metro was kind of viewed as a toss up with
the Rangers as like the upstart. Then the hurricanes had. Bruins as you know just solid teams and
Pittsburgh is kind of you know in that same. With the same tier as Boston Carolina but.
There was nothing. Insane about it really. And then. I think that threw a lot of people off the
scent like that most of the time in these post seasons like. Things just go completely.
Completely off script and that's where we're at. And that's why I like Seattle because I think
people are still expecting tomorrow to show up and these two teams show up and everyone say okay
well Dallas has the. On paper better goalie Jake Andrews and bed form first of all.
And Dallas is the better team in terms of regular season. They were the favorite in the series.
It's game seven. It's at home. Like they have all this stuff pointing towards them.
They're minus two 10. Do you know how many people just see that number and then be intimidated to
bet against it a lot. And it's game seven like it's Seattle's already made it to a game seven.
They've already turned. Yeah like they're going to play the same. Yeah exactly. Same kind of game
versus Colorado. If they can play a game anywhere like that you don't want a Dallas ticket here.
And the one thing to. Just to even go even more to where it's been like so like everyone
knows goal 10 is hard to project. One of the wildest things is that it's the teams that their
goalies are going or not going have been so random. Everybody would have said that adding
jurors the best goalie left by a mile and he could end up being a big part of the reason they're out.
I don't think he's necessarily been bad. I think the cracking about some pretty good looks.
They've got really good shooters like that continues to. I think you could say like group hour. Yeah
or series as a whole right like he has him in a star like the reality of his doesn't mean to
star if he was close to what he was versus Calgary last year they're probably walking through this
series. So it's just stuff like that is where it just gets to the point and this year is just like
an all-time low for it but it's just it's been so wild and I think this is a big thing that's
interesting when we look at all like the hindsight 2020 takes when we see tomorrow that weather's
talking about what's wrong about how maybe they shouldn't have thought that Skinner could do it.
It's like what were they supposed to do that much different though nobody thought these were flaws
that would be critical entering the postseason and how many goalies are you really like what
what goalies could they have where the things would have worked out better you know like it's
one of those things where I think when people analyze like what went wrong and stuff like that
they make it sound like 10 teams won the cup every season and and then on top of that old that old
Brian Burke's cliche last time I checked only one team wins the Stanley Cup yeah and then on top of
that like you know a lot of the flaws are hard to cover and then so much of it is just random too
random like but T.S. at home put a puck on the stick of Riley Smith in the slot tonight 20 seconds
into the game yeah breaking down a hockey when you break it down a hockey game you're not saying
well the Oilers were if you're betting on the Oilers you got to be ready for Matisse at
com to you know serve a pizza Riley Smith in another good one too like at com at com takes the dumb
penalty that probably is a huge reason they're done playing now because that puts it four on three
power play four on three power plays are significantly more dangerous and I was already thinking about
how the Oilers were getting in power play then that sequence and he takes up and then the goals
pretty few like bounces up and feet and the air drops on the goal line gets slammed in like
it's it's just been absolutely wild and yeah it's crazy yeah and and I think this kind of like
it's funny that we have this you're having this conversation and you're wondering is this about
betting and the answer is yes it is because what we're saying here is don't expect it to stop
like it's not just because Dallas and is gonna step on the ice tomorrow is a significant favorite
doesn't mean that you should just expect them to get every bounce and weird things to not happen
like sure they could they tomorrow could be a completely on script game Dallas can win at 4-1
and who knows but I tell you right now that I would be I don't know in what world I would be
betting this number on Dallas like yeah I agree it's I hope it works out where the crack and win
I want to see them win I think they're valuable it goes my mind really like the other thing that I
think is interesting it's not just it's game they didn't just get this series the game seven and
it just beat the defending Stanley Cup champions in game seven last round they also made the playoffs
very comfortably playing good the only thing that you might not really it was through about
hours was bad right that's really and and he's not and and like he's been okay like he's been
good yeah and then the other thing is they were getting emolished in the starts where Jones came
in so now Jones isn't getting in so if they had a better backup they probably have a better
record coming into the playoffs and then they're getting more credit so that's interesting too
the one take that I've seen what are respectable people on I thought it was a decent bet last game
there's a there's a total of a flat six out there today I'll probably end up putting some on the
under like it's game seven everyone thought this series was just gonna be printing on the under
this was actually one of my good takes that I thought early on it had the ability to be more
high scoring but now I think this is the time to capitalize on that I thought that last game was
you could go off the rails but I still feel like six between these two teams in a game seven is just
the time role to our guy Stucky he's always on the game seven under his train like it's a thing it is
a good strategy and I think like this total easily could have ended up being five and a half if this
series didn't happen to break open a lot more often people think and then that's another thing
where people count on trends like that being a lock where they say you know every game has gone
over how can you go in the under here that's not how betting works right you're trying to understand
what's more likely to happen in the next game based off what we've seen and based off how the
teams match up so yeah that looks really dumb when you go on the over and every game's gone over and
it misses in the next one but that's not sustainable betting information if it was you could just ride
every team that's winning you could ride every trend like that and you'd be sitting here rich
right the idea is you don't know when those trends are going to end it's like you know so that
that's just kind of the reality of that and I think that's kind of what's been hard with the
playoffs this seems like there's just been kind of nothing sustainable and logical feel a lot of
stuff yeah the only like I'm trying to think of like the only constants because because you know
we talked two episodes ago about Leon Dreyseld winning the Const Mite then we were tongue-in-cheek
about it even if the Oilers got eliminated next round and then he goes away right like there's been
no you think about like the teams that have been consistent you could say Carolina probably
the most they've been great I think they've been the best top to bottom team where they deserve it
they've played really well as a team like I think what Carolina's done has been really really
impressive and then the number two team is Vegas and it sounds simple to say because they're they're
too for sure actually yeah I'm not a throw Vegas in that book yeah and if you had told us you know
pre if we had a third person as a co-host on this podcast and that person you know or they guessed
it they guessed it in an episode and they said oh I like Carolina and I like Vegas to make deep
rounds I think the two of us would just be like you know I don't really know what I wouldn't have
argued them I would have just stuck with my playoff guns you know yes like I think that no I don't
think we wouldn't like wouldn't have proven it they've been great yeah we just wouldn't have
agreed with that and especially at the numbers that were being offered on those two teams as well
right like and to talk like the dry side old thing to tie in a kind of our trend note and I
I can't really like talk much shit about this because not like I capitalized I actually bet on
dry settled a score tonight but we did say and I did say how it was simply unlikely how many pucks
he was just slamming in on every nets for like a four game sample there and how you don't see any
goal score do that and when it happens everyone's like oh he's going to good spots he's doing this
and that and it's like he is but that still doesn't mean the puck ends up when those spots as easy
as it was for him for a couple games there so just kind of a little tie in on that trends don't
have to continue there if they're not a not a really logical um all right so that's it's kind of
funny just to break out break down this crack in stars game like like that basically just saying
there's just no reason for this number to be this high at all.
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florida carolina carolina slight minus one 30 favorite i'm gonna stick to what i said about the
devils which is it just takes i think it's just gonna take some time to adjust to carolina for
for florida but i do think florida's you know clinical kind of opportunistic offense and
their physicality their for checking ability they're kind of halfway between the islanders and devils
which could set up okay so i would be i'm interested in florida not right now but i think you know a
game won loss in carolina is certainly reasonable to expect and i think if they do fall in game one
no matter how they look i'll put back the panthers i think to to make a comeback in the series so
that's what i'm thinking here um other than that i really got nothing i think i'll probably bet a
long shot uh goal scorer leading goal scorer for the series and honestly might be Nick cousins again
at least two hundred and one i saw uh this the series who who the hell knows like
awesome at these jon'ta bears had zero goals last series like it's two bars might not have played
yeah or shouldn't might as well not have played yeah it's just like you think but but you take a
long shot as well i'm saying i think jordan martin nook ended up leading that series in points
who knows what you could have got him at to do that so whatever um the one thing to i think you're
good and i see some games in here where the like i could see carolina finding some stupid shot
totals in the series i think that's really realistic yeah i i maintain that i truly don't think florida
defend did overly well at all um that was the best five games span of uh surrogate's career
by goal save about expected so the point is when they come into carolina who play even faster even
more aggressive i do think that their defense is gettable i agree i don't know what i want to bet on
as a side in this game i don't really know how the series might look but i do think there could be
one where if you're someone who likes playing these game stacks with like carolina shots and
bobrowski saves i think that's a really reasonable look i was kind of trying to figure out my favorite
carolina shots based off price uh price tonight and they didn't have them up yet they have for
mosa series um the night before which has been nice but not in this one so i don't know look at the
usual guys see whose prices don't seem overly juiced but i think there's a good chance carolina
hits a really high shot total in this game yeah so that game i guess has been they didn't officially
announce when it was starting until uh i guess i haven't even done it yet so i'm expecting it to
be tuesday night uh could be wednesday yeah you would that's true actually i didn't realize that
yeah because you know when ads of habodies like sports oh you know what it's just because
they clumped it up yeah yeah they just put up like to you know whatever like a random yeah
shout out to the nhl for the ten o'clock eastern start today i love that people were so bad about
i was like i just don't even care uh well i'm a mountain standard yeah that's what i say the
game was still like mountain time and still was by thursday and uh whatever um and i know that
there's something with baseball or something uh yeah so that's that's really it um prackin
will kind of firm up our thoughts on florida and carolina uh we'll we'll reconvene after uh
ciadon dallas maybe right after the game tomorrow night or uh if there's an off day we'll do it then
but i we'll be back soon enough um but yeah keep an eye on on those prices for carolina and florida
most goals in the series because you're going to see some really short numbers next to
pachok and aho and for hagi natures like those guys should make sure this is the sixth favorite
i think that's playable it's playable yeah i thought he was pretty clearly carolina's
well maybe not pretty clear i thought he's carolina's most dynamic forward so like
so like antony do claire would be interesting to me if he's like long i think he i saw him at like
30 but natures and darvis are down there i think those are both solid i like those two i thought
they're kind of clearly carolina's drivers looking good man still can't get you on the
nichcosin strain after he almost he almost did it for us at three hundred one yeah no i could get
on that if he was that long i'm not seeing him here i'm just looking at it i'm i see him around out
at two hundred okay they're like running it where i'm looking natures as the one that jumps out to
me as being like he's the sixth guy i think carolina probably i lean winning and scoring
more goals so i want one of their guys and i think he's he's their second best goal score in the regular
season i thought he looked like the one who deserved most goals last series so that's kind of my
taste there i'm just going to read you some names that are above nichcosins by quite a bit
paul stassen he's 55 eric stahl's 80 brady shay's 35 jessie pull your rv what's called kanyami 130
he's short man i wish i was he he was actually one he was in my mind as someone i was like if i
can get like a 35 i i'm kanyami i would take it he's 19 to one i think that's a little yeah sus
anyways uh yeah nichcosins what a guy uh okay that is the toronto one three how
how many goals yeah he had two but he should have had he he very close to three he possibly could
have had four and i think he had a post and and he should have had two and so did they all tie who
won the series for heggy for heggy with four okay so he's he finished two back but i mean it was a
decent sweat he scored the first and last goal of the series it was incredible yeah he came through
big so anyways that would be a fun bet last goal of the series and we should have had brady also
he's behind like 2020 but it's just like same thing you talked about the bells yeah i know
that's true and now he's like minus 7500 and we've got series and rules all right well we'll see
and we'll be on the crack in tomorrow tonight for you listening actually tonight for me recording
because it's well past midnight but uh for nichmarn i'm michael lee but this has been
line change thank you for listening and thank you to our sponsor bet mgm good luck in game 7 amar
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