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Hello everyone. Welcome back to Line Change, the NHL podcast from the Action Network presented to
you by our sponsors, BetMGM. My name is Michael Leiboff. Joining me here late Thursday night,
it's my co-host and colleague Nick Martin. Nick, we are once again meeting after a couple of games
or I should say after one game's gone final and we're in the middle of the late game between Dallas
and Seattle. Dallas looks to have it under control but you just never know. But we will look ahead
to the game twos coming our way Friday and Saturday and then the game threes over the weekend as well.
We'll start with Jersey and Carolina. I had a feeling that game one was going to go this way
with these two teams. I didn't think it was going to be as poor from Akira Schmeade. That wasn't
really what I was getting at but I just thought Carolina would be ready for what Jersey was going
to throw at them. It just takes a little bit of time to adjust to the way Carolina wants to play
and they played a really good game. I thought they got scoring from three defensemen, two defensemen.
Which has been a formula for their season but also tells you that if they don't get contributions
from unexpected sources, you just never know. This game I actually am very excited to talk about
because this is a punt you like and I've been waiting for this opportunity and I'm going to do it.
I like this 75 to one on this game to be 0 0 going into overtime on Friday night.
It's a lot of Spat and Hockey. I think this is the perfect one. I was so mad because I was watching
Stars and Kraken and it was scoreless after one and I've been waiting to talk about after that
game went final last night. The first thing I was like I can't wait to get on the podcast tomorrow
and talk about how I like game two of this series to go 0 0 because Carolina is going to do what it
does. We're going to get a better hopefully better performance out of Schmeade and I think
it's just going to take New Jersey a little bit of time to kind of wade into this thing and they'll
play a little bit more. We saw this in game three against the Rangers. They were just a little more
probing and kind of pragmatic with their approach and then once they saw how kind of figured it out
they took over the series. I'm expecting this one to obviously be pretty low event. I think it's
a great bet to go to overtime plus 3 40 but why not take the 75 to 1 on 0 0. Yeah I think you nailed
the first game called really accurately because even that game in particular is really clear
how badly I mean it was obvious that Carolina completely dumbied them early on and that they
were just not handling the four check not dealing with the Kane speed well. What I think was under
credited and this does show up in the analytics was that the devil's got some pretty good chances
late in the game. It was maybe a little out of reach but there was a period there where they could
have been within one easily and they actually just didn't finish some looks which is always always
always like that's playoff hockey is where those looks don't go in and then you hear all the
narratives and then you hear all the talk about it being a full game trouncing where
I thought you could see that they kind of found their game. It was too little too late and it
you know it's gonna be hard to generate on Carolina and it's still that's still gonna be the case but
I feel better about the devil's than I think the common take I guess would be where I'd say. I've heard
some people talk about how like they found it to me and that they could have found more goals
and then we'd be sitting here probably talking about it a little different so I think you were
being on I thought the devil's would win that game and they were not deserving of it at all
but in terms of this next one I think you can see where the strengths are still going to be there
and maybe you could make a case for them having a better showing but yeah I think the under's a
good look because the one thing we should expect is maybe that the devil's come out with a sharper
game early and manage the puck a little better. Yeah I think there was nothing in the series I
liked Carolina in game one and it was like a it was a handicapping thing more than anything like
I just thought that there's and maybe I was a little caught up in my own biases from watching
then play the Islanders but the way that going from what the Rangers showed you to
Carolina in like a high stakes game where not like in the regular season it's one thing where
you're like okay we played the Rangers now we're taking on the hurricanes like and then the next
night we're going to play Seattle or something right like you're not you're not going to change who you
are but when you're playing the same team over and over again you do need to adjust and that first
game is not you're not going to see those adjustments yet right so like now that the devil's got a
chance to kind of wade their way in they've dipped their toe in and I don't think I would argue
against anybody who says now is the time to bet New Jersey to win the series and you hope that
Lindy Ruff just goes right back to Schmeade I don't think he won't won't do that like I think
Lindy by not doing it after game six against the Rangers has shown that the leash on his rookie goal
he is longer than maybe we thought it would be so yeah and that was a pretty tough outing for him
it was bad like in terms of the chance quality too though like I think that's one work with what
he's shown so far you can go back from game two pretty easily and just see how it goes but yeah I
think you know if you want to have some fun on a Friday night bet to zero zero with me 75 to one
and when you know Paul Stashney scores from the corner two minutes in we can turn the game off and
grab a slice of pizza or something so and so the NHL schedule gets a little weird here so that's the
only game Friday night then there's only one I believe on Saturday as well and it's end of
10 in Vegas and I think we can sort of apply the same conversation to this matchup as well
of course the complete opposite please do not bet the zero zero tie in this one uh the hurricanes
and nights perhaps played their best games of the series already I thought Vegas was really good
at five out five like yeah oh 100 yeah did we see there I don't know if I'm sold on that I think I'm
kind of coming around that they have some pretty good edges like these bottom
Oilers defense when compared to what Vegas has to offer yeah and it's like the day or
nayth situation needs to get solved yeah that's an obvious one but even even the rest of it
mirrors me in a couple for sure yeah no there's going but so but yeah I mean Edmonton side of
things not a good game clear yeah I say that I think that they uh they're fun they're I think
they're just a funny team uh Vegas they're they're they're I guess it's is it lazy just to say that
their floor is just really high like like this no I think and that's probably what the answer is
right like yeah and like I'm completely thinking the same thing where like maybe I got a little too
low on them very per bit maybe a little too into the idea that they look I mean their best player
was helpful yeah and I've runs too right so like and now they look deep like their bottom lines look
way better in Edmonton's and it's one game but it's kind of in the case like for a while now and
the one thing I was laughing about that I think is a scary thought for what other stands because the
problem is the way that the depth defenders played the way that the depth forwards played
people calling out Conor McDavid for that first game is the biggest joke I've ever seen in my life
like he might not be Leon and Drycidal or he might not have played like Drycidal and he had some
bubbles but like that's what happens when you're being asked to have a hundred zone entries yeah
he's taking guys on one on four plus yeah like the Yanmark injury the fact that he dressed 11 and
said it like if if David sits in this he had two primary assists he was a plus one which I don't
really whatever take that for what it is but that doesn't count him driving the bus on the power
play and I still think it's clear that like on the man advantage he's the one that makes it go
more than anyone like they're trying to press him so high he's opening up the one timers so
that was one where I was like you know he's gonna play better probably just because of who he is
but if that's gonna be argument about how they're gonna come back and win this series and not
the other issues then I think you're you've got a problem because I don't think he was bad
at all no he wasn't bad he was being asked to to carry the puck in one on four because I think
what ended up what the Yanmark going down kind of screwed the Oilers more than you think it would
just because they were dressed they dressed 11 and 7 so they go down to 10 and 7 and that means that
not only are McDavid and especially like especially on a night where some of the guys weren't going
well you do you know kids is yep you'd forget he had a hundred points real quick and he's usually a
good two-way player which is probably what's been more disappointing about the playoffs so far is
that he's seemingly taken a bit of a step back in that regard so I agree I think the Oilers are
gonna play better I don't know if I'm like jumping to back them just because they seem to have some
like legitimate concerns I still like would probably say my opinion is like well there's
or nothing but I don't know if I love it so I'm with you I think it's you you play the Oilers
or you pass I think you can there there's gonna be a lot of people at like plus 115 who are thinking
Oilers series money line which is fine but I also don't think now you need to like rush into this
one either because I don't think Edmonton is would be dead in the water if they lose and go down out
to think them and the Leafs are both kind of you know they're teams that can rattle off four wins
very easily and they they have the talent to just dominate a like blow or team out in a blink of an
eye so I'm I'm almost thinking about just sending this one out maybe I'll just keep going back to
the well and playing McDavid to score two plus because I just refuse to believe that Leon Drycidal
is just gonna continue to score two goals that one that David's got to get in on that that is
harder for McDavid though like he's getting the first layer and he's like really the one driving
it in and Dry is just so so good at finding those soft pockets which like credit to him and he's
dominating him but I'm not trying to hate on Dry I'm just I think that's partly why it's been a little
easier for him like it's insane to think that it's even a debate who's better in the playoffs and I'm
not saying because I disagree with it it's just insane that that's where Drycidal's level at is
has been at I still personally think if you like to me it just feels like a lot of it is dry does
get to take more advantage of like things being opened up for him and he's less he has to do
he has less he has to do on the heat which is finishing is so so hard so credit to him for that
like but I think people are kind of picking on McDavid a little bit here for like what he's really
being asked to take on and the fact that he's not even getting caved in defensively he's creating
that much and like he was fine defensively it had like a bad turnover on the game losing goal which
kind of stuck some people's head. Arshan said the game was gold the exclamation mark on
Michael's empty net but I don't know I thought that was funny I agree with you I think you could
target a really big McDavid game but sucks because the prices are still just yeah they're crazy
they're really hard to get yeah the time on that was the people who played that all the first 40
games of the year in about range I know yeah they're not listening to this podcast because they're
not listening to any podcast they're living on a on a beach somewhere and to heaty or something.
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all right so let's flip it to sunday so yeah like this leafs panther series is going to be
spaced out like the NBA so they played yeah this one feels painful that it's on sunday
I mean if everyone wants to watch a game on Saturday but yeah I who knows what it is what's
going on in the arena that night that but it's uh yeah so they played Tuesday Thursday Sunday
Wednesday so they're gonna play uh one game in six days uh which is exactly how you want to
you know spice up these series and and I'm sure that the Toronto media machine won't go
deep dive into whoever the rest of the all the stories that we're gonna get the the refs were
you know find out who they're related to or whatever um on that note West McCauley's he played
he played college hockey with rad Brenda Moore uh so no wonder he was
giving them the the good whistle against the islanders I'm happy to throw Zach Parisi
and North Dakota alumni into the penalty box with a terrible calling game in game four
anyways leaves are minus 125 in game three cats plus 105 the over-under is six and a half
story for this series so far has been Sergei Bobrowski uh he he was so much fun I mean I know
you're at least back or so not not to the rep salt in the room but he was just so much fun to
watch tonight because yeah I mean my man I don't know if he was ever squared to a shooter tonight
no that's the thing is I don't even think he's looking that good I mean the leaves hit five posts
so like five so I mean he's been incredible it's I had the Leafs in the over-end new lander
score tonight and I've honestly never been as tilted as I was watching that game when new
lander should have scored numerous goals and the Leafs would have been right behind him yeah
um I mean it's John Tavares celebrated a goal that hit someone in the face behind in it
I think maybe he was just celebrating an injury so let's look into that I think maybe John was
was happy to see Josh Mahara they want Mahara on the ass yeah they did it might win so yeah um
it yeah this is one like I think this is the ultimate kind of example I mean the Leafs are
the perfect example of how like random hockey really is this year because everyone knew they
got a little lucky versus Tampa we talked about it I talked about it that they it was clear they
got some breaks for once considering what Florida did to Boston and like the way they controlled
play in that series I think what Toronto's done is actually really impressive I wouldn't bet on
them in game three because it just feels like one of those ones where I mean first up their
mind is 25 one to 25 they haven't won a game in the series Samsonov looks terrible they're not
going to control more of the play than they did tonight so I think that's a case there and it
feels like this is like one of those ones where this is probably the hardest one to get now they
are down 2-0 and it's so much pressure season on the line like for a team like Toronto that's not
really appealing to me I was hoping to come on here and make a case for what was one of my favorite
bets I've ever won because it was on the caps when they were down 2-0 to Columbus and what I
thought was a really similar first two looking games the caps were 15 to 1 to come back and when
that series in game six and I bet it I thought that this would be at least 10 to 1 that Toronto
would win this in six and it's only 8 plus 850 so I don't even really think there's value there but
I think the games could have gone a lot better I think that ultimately like we're seeing people
talking about the breakdowns that the Leafs had in the turnovers look at the other team
look at how many breakdowns and turnovers are on the other team they just haven't gone in the net
like it's I think it's reimagining a lot of things like Florida's a good team you're not going to
sit here look what they did to Boston you're not going to sit here and do much more than you've done
you could argue like you know some of the breakdowns like especially in game one the break ways and
when they came that sort of thing they could clean that up but I think when you're playing a good a
team as legitimately good as the Panthers are they've kind of done what you're going to do
like you're not really going to play a lot better than that if Florida goes two rounds
deeper than this I don't think we'll see many games where they allow that many chances as they
didn't be in two so I feel like those are just a lot of musings on the series but as it always
goes with the Leafs you know people are getting roasted and then the classic one too the one bet
that I'll say I have on this game I'm definitely going to go back on kneelander to score if it's
plus 175 again because I mean the case was pretty obvious if you watch the game tonight he was
quiet in the first and then he completely came alive he hit two clean posts he generated some
really really good chances I think multi-point game is another option on him as well so he was
kind of the perfect summary of the Leafs for me tonight where everyone gets so results orientated
they complain he had the one bad turnover on the one goal but he also could have had three points
he set up to bars on that really nice look in front like oh I could just go on and on but
I think and he was pretty good I think the Leafs were pretty good in that yeah we'll see where it
goes in the next two games I guess yeah I went on uh on green dot daily today and
to preview Leafs and Panthers and kind of continue to drive home the thing that we've been saying
about the series which is the uh kind of it's a good every game is going to be great for
people who like to play same game parlays and try to get lucky with a you know three or four leg
anytime goal score uh and the two games have played out that way it's just it's not worked out there's
11 different goal scorers in the series including my guy Nick Cousins who I had a 300 to one to lead
the series in scoring and he's got an 11-way tie with one and what's funny here is what what I
said about that bet was you need a lot of things to happen here and one of the things was a short
basically a short panther series went for nothing for one and we could get it but the other thing
I was saying was that I was not I did not account for the scoring to be the spread out I did never
mention that but that I think is actually fine um you know if Cousins finds a way to get a two goal
game in one of these next two and the Panthers can close it out that ticket's live so I'm gonna
keep my eye on uh knee lander most goals too yeah I mean you couldn't that's the thing like it's a
you should look at it like a clean slate in this market right like let's yes because because
especially if you're looking and now like you got a pretty good chance of a six game series yeah
exactly so getting the six because that'd be like a strong win two or next three that's probably
still a fairly likely result I think that this series is obviously far from far from done and
I said like I said about the Oilers like the same thing with the Leafs like these are the two teams
that are most capable in this bunch of just rattling off a bunch of wins in a row the devils I've
already shown it so maybe it's disrespectful to say that and not include them but uh yeah the least
I think if you go to that market the most goal score market and dip back in and you're looking for
a leaf you should just treat it like nobody has any goals in the series because that's basically
what it is right it's just you got you got your guy has a score too and the old son and he's in
the lead so yeah I think it's actually a good a good bet to like just revisit here is find someone
that uh that you like and you might get a like a knee lander's odd should drift a little bit
you'd think uh kachok like his odd should drift the should have drift a little bit he hasn't scored yet
but it's been uh it's been a series that no matter who like what the matchup was if when
games play out like this it's just always going to be better for the underdog where uh that the
favor is pushing play and just not finishing chances so the uh yeah and this I mean I just that
happens but I thought last night or tonight's game was pretty extreme even game one I thought
Toronto was like legitimately hard done by where like it's a tough game one though like the more
I thought about it was they were but they were also that so much of what they put up in terms of
like their expected goals came really late like 4-2 it was very 4-2 and they were pushing in
I mean far even still like before that you can argue I could still think of like numerous legitimate
chances yeah but I thought Florida had some too like I think that game was not maybe like my whole
that game actually the game state came into it a lot more than tonight tonight the Leafs like
yeah they they tilted the ice for even that game though 59 minutes chances still like realistically
Toronto would have been ahead on average I think the only real concern for Toronto is just that
they're getting way better gold-tending than you are and you're that's probably not going to get
stalled but even still I think they go like another level beyond just the gold-tending they've had
they've been snake bitten by like posts and guys not finishing chances that they're going to finish
so I don't know like here I'm not really trying to say for sure Toronto's gonna come back I think
Florida's a good team but it's one of those things when I see all this stuff like Toronto's
heartless and Toronto's this and that it's like no that's not what's happening like it's the it's
the NHL playoffs like when you when you play that good and you don't get rewarded with any luck
chances are you're gonna lose like that's the reality of it it happens so we'll see what kind
of answer they have but like I don't know like I think it's just yeah we're this is like almost
how I started to get behind backing this Leafs team and believing them in a little bit because
it's just so annoying listening to people like what the takes they have on this team and just like
revisioning everything so you just gotta use you gotta use the mute button I know Twitter
that's it that's all you know that's another one tonight two periods in tonight's game I'm seeing
half the analyst ripping on new lander I'm like the guy could have three points like even if that
the tip in the high slot late in the second goes in the game's tied he's got a goal ever in
sitting your time on how sick he is and it doesn't it needed to be an inch further over so
starts starts and call stars and cracking like I said that the stars are in control there for
one now this is probably gonna go back to Seattle one one I don't think we'll see where this line
opens but like if to crack an earth I'm assuming it's gonna look similar to what the
Leafs and Panthers looks like you know maybe Dallas is minus 120 cracking or plus you know even
money or plus 110 or something and I think if that's the case I'll probably be passing here
but another one where like a low event you know zero like I said before if this one was zero
was heading towards that zero zero after one I was getting a little nervous but you know unders
and bets correlated to the under I think are are interested at some point Jason Robertson's
gonna break out of his slump it seems like too but if you want to go to that market too
yeah I think that Robertson looked that dynamic I feel like I just kind of like riding rope
if you're gonna stick in the prop market he's been pretty money and they slowly move the number but
I think if he's gonna be minus 110 or minus 115 for three shots again you can just play that
it's hard to make a case for the cracking with how tonight's gone but maybe we'll see if they
can respond at home it seems like there's been a few more of these kind of like I know this is
a huge thing in the NBA betting the back and forth like the zigzag thing yeah I but I kind of
blame John Cooper for this in the NHL honestly typically I find the NHL doesn't zigzag like this
it's hurting me because I've liked a lot of these like just watch the game and be like oh this
this guy looks here like it doesn't seem like there's been it seems to be been more adjustment
games and more where a team has like a huge risk yeah I'm a thing unless of like just a we got to
tap our our man Evan Abrams to look into this because I really do think that in 2021 I would say
I think it was the year after the bubble whatever it was I think it's hard to become a thing more
where coaches and teams kind of planned for the series in a more big picture sense than just like
a game by game and I mean we saw it with Tampa two years in a row they just completely were like
all right we're just not gonna show up to game one last year they didn't and then they're like
we're just gonna dominate game two and then they did yeah and then this year they did that
the opposite did they even I swear to god for game two this year it gets to leave so they wouldn't
game one and then they had some injuries like I like it's almost like Cooper told them like I just
don't even like it seems like there's more of these ones where it just feels like teams can punt it
like I feel like it's just what this fucking did tonight or if I was just this much a game of
like effort and desperation where exactly it's like like just think about the panthers and
leaps like I wanted to say this and I'm kicking myself I didn't that florida is the type of team
that because they've been playing these must win games and playing like playoff hockey you know
that cliche for two months like they're not just gonna rest on their laurels after winning game one
like they just came back from three games right like this was this if you would put Carolina
against Toronto tonight I think you could maybe have seen like a more of a muted kind of desperation
and I know florida wasn't great but they they worked really very good though yeah but like
just bad going out front but you get the point like it like florida I think florida is like an
outlier in the kind of zigzag theory yeah but I kind of think that's giving them a lot of credit
for a game where they just I I can't get behind giving them the credit they're getting from media
like I'm seeing people just talking about like first game was impressive I guess they hung in
tonight but to me it just felt like they didn't do that much and like ultimately it swung on
bark off like if that goal that bark off scored a gun in on Samsung off tonight people would have
been like what in the hell just happened or sorry they go the bark off scored it that had gone in
on Bob Ross D tonight I would have been like what the hell just happened and since it goes in on
Samian the Leafs everyone's like oh the Leafs give up too so quick they're not defending and blah blah
blah and I just think that that wasn't the case and yeah Samian's not not not like a great option
like I don't think I've ever tried to argue that we feel great about him to me that's just the
concern for Toronto is like I think they're playing more or less fine you're gonna have lapses you're
gonna give up chances that's literally every single team in the playoffs it's more just like if you're
gonna see soft goals go in like that and you're not gonna finish yourself then I don't think you're
gonna you know you're not gonna go very far all right that wraps it up I'll see everybody on the
zero zero tie Friday night crack excuse me devil's and probably could make a case for the first period
under two I guess there if you want to have a yeah I know just something fun to go with it
anchor some profits hopefully yeah we'll see how it goes anyways for Nick Martin I'm Michael
I believe we'll see you on the other side of the weekend good luck uh it's all your best
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