Nobody wins. Let's everybody win.
This is your time.
We're in this game.
I'm going to break the puck back half.
Let it possible go.
These guys aren't good.
Staring good.
This crowd is going for the bananas.
As they say in hockey, let's do that hockey.
Hello everyone.
Welcome back to LineChange, the NHL betting podcast from the Action Network presented to you by our sponsors, Ben.
My name is Michael Iboff, joining me tonight is Nick Martin.
This is your episode for Monday and Tuesday's Game 3 and 4.
We're recording Sunday night in the middle of Kraken and Dallas, but Seattle is running away
with this one for nothing.
Or excuse me, 4-1 now in a second.
We'll start with Vegas and Edmonton Game 3 on Monday night.
It's the only game the schedule starts to get less wonky after this one.
We'll have two games on Tuesday than two on Wednesday.
Go from there.
Quick little aside about this night's and Euler's game.
I keep talking about betting.
McDavid to score two plus goals.
And I bet it almost every game this playoffs.
The two I haven't bet it have been the two he scored.
Two goals in.
So I'll probably just go back to that one and guarantee he doesn't.
But for this game for Game 3, Edmonton is a pretty chunky favorite, minus 170 at home.
Vegas plus 145 over under seven.
Aside from McDavid to score two plus goals, Nick, anything you see here?
No, not really.
It looks like Edmonton's definitely favored enough for me, I think.
I agree.
Maybe McDavid.
And I think you could probably try and pick out some of your favorite nights.
I'll be interested in seeing where Marchesos shot line is that I really liked it the other
game.
And I honestly didn't, I mean, obviously it was kind of still a bad game script for the
nights and the fact that it was such a blow for so long heard it too.
So I think that could be a shot prop I'm interested in and a lot of the nights.
They've spent so much time.
I was diving into this the other day.
They've spent so much time leading this playoff that that does change.
Kind of where I think some of their best shooters numbers would be just because the game scripts.
So I think that's something to keep an eye on.
As a side, it feels like that's a pretty big price on the other side.
I mean, it was a very, very convincing game too, but I don't know if I want to go there or not.
It does feel like I think a better way to kind of when we talk last week, and I said,
we were talking about the zigzag theory in the NBA.
And I was kind of thinking what I said about how I'm having a hard time settling into,
you know, the back and forth and getting a read.
And I feel like a better way to say what I was saying would be that in previous years,
it's felt like there's so many series where there's one clear value side where like Montreal's
whole playoff run.
I was like, this team has value every single game pretty much.
And the Islanders too, just like, yeah, exactly.
The Islanders were an underdog every game and they play when they run to the Eastern Conference final.
Yeah, and if they go 500, you're really, really good.
And that's kind of, I think, a better way to say what I was kind of thinking in that.
That's a good point.
And this feels like one of those maybe were this series.
I'm not sure I have a feel for like who's really the side holding value at all.
It kind of feels like I'm just trying to, you know, pick off the spot more so.
Yeah.
One thing that's interesting about Edmonton and the price, right?
They are five and three in the playoffs.
And it feels like every win has just been like a huge statement win.
They the last one, like they blow out Vegas, they were up for nothing before the game started,
basically.
You go to those Kings games when they won three in a row to close it out.
They came back from three and then they just were just sensational in the clincher.
And it feels like that kind of stuff is happening every time they win.
Leon Dreyseidel is unplayable at the moment.
So I feel like every time they win, everyone kind of gets carried away a little bit.
And you'll see that seep into the market.
So I would be kind of closer to Vegas here.
I want to see where this number closes.
But I think I'm going to bet McDavidiscord 2 plus.
And one other thing I want to, because I just want to ask you basically is with the way the
series in Florida and Toronto is going, that means that Matthew could chuck.
And we talked about how when Florida was down 3-2 to the Bruins,
like just buy his consmites as a whatever.
And just in case that's the crazy stuff happens and so far it's looking like it might.
But now I'm really scared that Florida gets to the Stanley Cup, wins the Stanley Cup,
and Leon Dreyseidel.
Still does it.
Yeah.
And I'm going to say something that's crazy.
I'm going to say something that's crazy.
He might set some records before the end.
Like if they win this round and then go to the next round,
let's say next round they play Dallas and it goes 7.
Like he might have all the records done and they lose that series.
And I'm like, there's no way they could give it to someone who doesn't make the Stanley Cup
final, right?
But that's how good he's been.
Then I'm still thinking like.
That would be insanity.
I mean, if he didn't mean a case last year, but not this kind of case.
So one other thing though to talk about Dreyseidel's gold scoring,
and it's an interesting note because everyone's going to bet it tomorrow.
Like Dreyseidel to score in two goals will be the most popular bets,
which is reasonable.
He's going bananas.
But at what point two, like, I don't think anyone really wants to say it,
but the puck luck is pretty insane.
Look at how many of these, how often he's smart.
Like he's going to a lot of good areas.
He's but how many do you see?
How often do you ever see any NHL player ever just find themselves in a situation
where they're just tapping them in like this?
For even as good as Dreyseidel's ban, if you watch how many of them are just like,
like both game, both goals last game.
The one hit shin pads drops on a stick, gets it in, which is great.
He's out front of the net, obviously, but like a lot of good goals scores do that.
Right? And it doesn't just find them like this.
And then the second goal is pretty nice play.
And he had a really good sequence where Yamamoto missed the net,
goes behind the net, passes out front to dry, and the goal is down because of Hyman.
And he puts it in.
So I think he's been insane, but it's also kind of interesting from a note of like,
it has been a pretty ridiculous run of like, like, you just don't see guys find goals this
easy. So I think it's a bit of both where like he is completely dominating,
but at some point, I feel like you think it's not going to be this casual,
but who knows? And then last note, I'm not hypothetical.
Not that it really matters, but I think a healthy Edmonton is a horrible match over Florida.
I was pretty wrong on this Toronto series, obviously, but I feel like even more so it's hard for me to
see the transition game of the weather. It's not really getting those Panthers, but who knows?
Yeah. Well, we'll see. And the other thing I'll just note on that kind of situation, if we do,
before we move on is let's say Edmonton gets eliminated in the conference final.
Do you think that is the time to maybe put a punt in a dry cycle?
Because like, I wonder why I'd be interested in seeing like how many convincing cases are left.
Yeah, exactly. Like, so like if it's Carolina,
look, what if it's Carolina or Seattle, right? Like,
and even New Jersey, like I'm happy we preached Hughes. He's definitely their leader, but
he's not like making an insane case. So just something to keep in mind.
Anyways, so that's Monday night one game. That Tuesday, we got a pair. Like I said,
we're recording during Dallas and Seattle at the moment. It looks like Seattle will go into that
game with a two one lead and it will be played in the Pacific Northwest, but we'll start with
Carolina and New Jersey. Boy, did I feel good about my zero zero bet in game three? Almost got there.
Only only the 12 goals. We said play the first period under to position some profits. So
won't lap. You know, back. Yeah, but is what it is. But yeah, it feels kind of like
what we saw at a Carolina in round one. It feels kind of like we saw out of the
devil's in round one where Carolina's best, our first like true poor performance in the series
came after they go up to nothing and leave Raleigh. The devil's their best performance comes,
or their first good performance comes after going down O2. It feels kind of simple to just say,
like, is this what we expect out of these teams? Now you got to wonder about Carolina's goals
in a technique situation, but I also don't think it's that big a deal. Like, I truly don't care
who's in goal for Carolina. I would almost say that if I would, if I would have had like a
Carolina to win the Stanley Cup ticket, I'd probably want to go check Kevin at this point.
Oh, for sure. Yeah. And like, I thought three oh down today, you just put Kutcha
Kevin and see because I think part of the problem is they don't want to put him in without playing
exactly forever. So I thought today was like, you go down three, first intermission, try him. I don't
know if they were able to completely shaking Anderson's confidence or what it was, but I feel like
that was just one or was like, this is a good spot to get him in a game and see how he looks and
give ourselves kind of a chance to consider that option more. So I thought that was really
interesting. Mine is 150. I kind of like the devil's here. I've had a pretty bad field for the series.
But I feel like I like what the devil showed. It seems like it is kind of what you thought
where they're figuring it out as they go. The one thing that I love, he had some really,
really good moments today. I feel like you know where I'm going with this. Luke Hughes,
I talked about it. I said, if they put him in, there's no chance he's going to do worse than some
of these bottom defenders. He's just too good. Like we've seen this from all the NCAA guys.
And I mean, he had one really bad turn around the power play, but that was kind of a team wide thing
considering it came up for short-handed goals. And I thought he was excellent. And one of the things
that I think is really interesting is, so I think the common cliches when you're playing like a
Carolina that comes at you so fast and so hard on the four check is you want guys that constantly
make this safe play. And I think sometimes people underthink that where, and it's not that Hughes
was making such risky plays, but he would hold the puck and be slightly more passive or beat the
first check and find a play. I thought there's some really good examples of that. And that's exactly
what you want to see where you're going to keep the puck and beat it that way. And as opposed to
always trying glass and out, and then you're just eating them because then they're so good
coming back in the neutral zone too. So I thought he was excellent. I think he's going to give them
a ton of upside moving forward. And that's like something to be really excited about. I'm just happy
you got into because I really wanted to watch him play this postseason. So I think that's definitely
a fun note. I don't know if there's same kind of thing. It seems like value on this game is, you know,
the label, but I think Luke Hughes anytime goal score. It's crazy to for as dead as the
devil's looked after two games, which they got smoked. I did not think game two would look like
that. I thought they were going to find a way to hang around. But they could win the east. Like
they can beat Florida, I think. Or Toronto love their chances. Yeah, I mean, maybe.
So that Hughes point is interesting because it's something that the Islanders almost preached
right was when they played Caroline, how they wanted to basically flip the almost alley-oop as
many times as they could out of their own zone because they don't they didn't have the puck movers
that the devils have. And what their thoughts was, all right, you know, you flip 20 pucks out of
from your own red line of game, maybe two of them get misplayed and you can get an amen rush.
And like they were. And I think it's reading it too. Right. Yeah. Because it's literally
anything to do with hockey. But but if you break because if you can break that first,
that first player against Carolina, you catch them like you will catch them. For sure. And with
the devils forwards, right? Exactly. So you're going to break out clean, then you're going to
get some damage. Yeah, the devil's I think the devils are definitely so live. I want to even
like count them out down three, one. The other thing like I'll touch on quick. So
first off, we talked about how the home teams are probably going to stabilize now after beating
this drum just not because I really I just think it's 50 50. So he's been in my case that it's
closer to teams just being able to play on the road or at home, basically bringing the same game.
What's going on with Carolina is kind of getting a little insane for like four
postseason in a row of like they can't play on the road and they're insane at home.
Except against the Islanders. I can't decide if it's impressive or ridiculous because I'm like,
can they really just not prepare to play on the road or is the environment that crazy at home?
Like what is the combination here? They've got Rod. You think he's the type of guy that
supposedly gets them prepared for these moments on the road. And they just I wonder if it's like a
Matt like is it like just match up? I don't know. That's true too. Yeah.
Like is it because they have like that stall line is so effective when and he gets them out
against the top dogs every chance he gets at home. It's absurd how many times that
to one is slaving parent to exactly right. So like that tilt that that that just completely
negates your best players more often than not. And unfortunately that I think what is it that
Carolina they have four wins on the road in the postseason since 2009 and they made it every year
and all four of them become against the Islanders I believe. So that's there you go. It is insane
though. But I will see the Islanders they get one down there which was which was nice although
they had to survive it. But okay. So yeah I think I think that Devil's kind of big picture is the
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promotional offers not available in Nevada and New York okay uh onto the other game Tuesday
night which is going to be Seattle and Dallas Seattle's at 5 1 going into the third so we can
pretty safely assume that we will see uh the cracking with a 2 1 lead and
Mio Hayskin in his hurt for Dallas he took a puck to the face who knows right like with
when I'm they're down 5 1 they're not going to bring him back out for this game I'd assume so
it's likely we'll see Seattle close as a a little shorter than what they went off at today
Dallas was a road favorite we keep talking about the Seattle team is always going to be live as an
underdog at what point like assuming Hayskin is in at like what point does Seattle just become
completely unappealing to you uh for for this this match it because plus 120 I thought was a
great number on Seattle tonight and you know I don't it's not going to be there I don't think
yeah I agree I think that'll be one to watch Hayskin and status is huge for them I love the
cracking we haven't hit it hidden it all year that said I'm already kicking myself or passing
on them tonight it felt like Dallas really just took over and figured it out in game two and
who knows I I don't know if I'll end up with a side on this one but I agree it's probably leaning
towards cracking with the numbers it'll come out um and then prop wise I think car chain keep
your eye on him goal for goal and then I think if hints is still minus 110 for three shots that's
just you just keep playing that it has to be played he's he's killing it right now I feel like
he should be getting the raw Robertson lines right now for shots yeah when it's uh when it's Jason
Robertson gonna start getting going here he is he's the difference between uh me uh being in a
great spot in a in a playoff pool and not so we'd like it going but anyways uh yeah I think like
if it's if it's where it closed again tonight like plus 120 plus 115 is fine that's the
out of it anything lower than that I think it's a little much um we will we're gonna re we're
gonna record again on Tuesday night so we'll just quickly touch on Wednesday there will be two
games on Wednesday Vegas and Edmonton and then we'll play after Toronto Florida the Panthers
went up three nothing in the series with an overtime win over Toronto on Sunday night they were
the Leafs took a ton of money throughout the day before game three and I'm kicking myself for
for not just being like we we why at this point like like I got I get that Toronto's a better team but
that the number was stabilized then all of a sudden shot up to like plus 135 on Florida and I
I didn't play it um instead like a like a true genius I went after the William
Melander stuff again um oh don't even get me started on that stuff I had someone comment and be like
how the hell are we back on the lender again I think if you put a clip together of all his touches
today he played the best quiet game you ever will he set up that that second goal was no one
gave him any service whatsoever he had so many like solid little delays and the defender were
just fire muffins into the crest I think if anyone helped him whatsoever the one thing I was really
like I know that Matthews and Marner really weren't going that was painfully obvious I thought
it would have made a lot of sense to try and the knee nut knee liner with Matthews like after the
first I thought that was really clear and see if maybe that got something going because I I really
thought he went under look like he had his legs I thought he had some good touches I just think
that that second goal when I made those bets I didn't count on Toronto getting dummy that was
what it came down to like I thought he would have some help and he was the only one going
at all over the big guys so yeah you're not going to win many games when you're when you're
deciding between your best forwards David Camp Sam Lafferty or William Melander um anyway let's just
quickly talk we'll go more in depth about this game on our Tuesday episode panthers plus 105
plus 110 right now is what it looks at looks like and you're you're opening thought here first of
all like you'll you're Samson off we don't know that doesn't sound good you got hurt uh I don't
think there's too much of a difference I know that's insane to say him and Joseph wall but like
molded fine yeah he was good and uh he's been good and like yeah sure you're at least fan ideally
you'd want you'll be a Samson off in goal but at the same time you're down three nothing so
maybe like this is what you know you just needed a jolt or something but uh I have a feeling you're
gonna say what I was thinking which is like if you're you want to play the panthers there's so much
logic behind it and but if you want to play the Leafs on this line like just go big
better winning the Leafs as a single in this game at my minus 130 I don't I don't know what
the hell you're looking at bet them to win the Stanley Cup if you're gonna bet them to do anything
honestly like what like they're gonna be reposted at at some pretty big numbers here so you're
gonna get the biggest number you'll see on turn you've seen at Toronto all the past three years
basically to win the Stanley Cup so yeah and I yeah I honestly think plus one pen is such a good
number here there's just one to one to one this is such a hard game to win like to me and especially
because Florida outplayed them tonight is the main reason like those first two games I was still
pumping up my Leafs because I was like okay I mean I think anyone fair can make the case that at
worst they should have had a split like they were painfully unlucky and then tonight as it were
long they just had no juice Florida had them figured out and the top guys weren't going
um I mean it's one of those things where I'm sitting here just in horror being one of the only
people who thought the Leafs would do something this year it's it's an awful thing. I have a good
friend who just went through a breakup and he went on like a 10 day vacation in Mexico just like
chilling and golfing and working out and stuff and I honestly feel like that's where I'm at
with being someone who thought this Leafs team would win this year I just want to curl up in a
hole and just you know quit making content and and call it a year so it's not over uh yeah I mean
fourth one you and I were both had our teams both coached by Barry Trost and Barry Trost would
remind both of us right now that the fourth one is the hardest one to win it is and I agreed like
if I was gonna be positive that's where I'd say like but that's why you would never bet Toronto
was a single right as a favor in this game you just wouldn't because it's the hardest one to
like this one's hard to understand and there's no understanding cup and that is not playable no
I know but it's like if you're gonna play anything I just would do that it's not I don't think the
like the the true odds are higher than that but I don't even know what the hell to say about them
that was the most I've been disappointed where it was just like what the what are you doing
it was so the final two periods I was just disgusted perfect note to end this one on uh all
right we'll be back Tuesday night to go deeper into that we'll give you a chance to breathe maybe
you'll be in Mexico uh you know golf and I'm working out and doing this and then uh we'll figure out
some more bets but uh for now that's all we got so best of luck with all your bets on Monday and
Tuesday we'll see you again Wednesday morning uh for Nick Martin I'm Michael Lipa thank you to
our sponsors bet MGM this has been line change
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