Nobody wins. Let's everybody win.
This is your climb.
We're in this game.
I'm going to break the puck back.
Let it possible go.
These guys aren't good.
Staring good.
This crowd is going for the bananas.
As they say in hockey, let's do that hockey.
Hello everyone and welcome back to Line Change.
I'm the NHL betting podcast from the Action Network.
My name is Michael Leiboff joining me.
As always is my co-host Nick Martin.
And of course, a reminder that this show,
every line change episode, the season is sponsored by BetMGM.
That's where we'll look at some odds.
Nick, let's talk about these upcoming game fours and fives.
We will start on Wednesday with the first elimination game
of the round.
The Maple Leafs are minus 125 with their backs against the wall.
In Florida, Panthers plus 105, the over under 6.5.
We talked a little bit about this game because there was a two-day break
when we recorded on Sunday night.
And you were along with basically everybody,
a little stunned at the effort from the Leafs
and how that game played out, how the series obviously is landed.
Any new thoughts here?
First thing I'll say is, you know, we talked about it in the last episode.
I like the Panthers in this game.
I just think it's going to be a really hard spot for the Leafs to turn the tides.
It feels like at this point they're just playing not to lose.
I think they're so tight.
It's a lot of, it's very hard for them to play free, to be very creative.
I think it's just a lot of like, you know, you're just trying to get through the game
and say you gave it all you got, but it feels like nothing they're doing
is them expecting to win.
And then the one interesting note, we talked about it.
I really think they should have tried Matthews with Kneelander.
I thought that that made a lot of sense.
They tried, it's not like this is something crazy.
This season they tried it quite a bit and found pretty good results at times during the year.
So I would have tried shaking that up.
It doesn't look like they're going to.
It looks like they're going to stick with Matthews with Marner.
Kneelander with Tavares.
So I think that's kind of the one bit of info that we didn't have for the last EPP.
And we'll see maybe they go away from that pretty quickly into the game
if things go bad.
And either way, like Marner and Matthews should be able to perform together.
But I still just think at this point with what we've seen, you could probably have made that change.
But yeah, it just feels like such a tough spot for the Leafs to me.
Joseph Wall gets to start for Toronto.
They will, like you said, they didn't really, you know,
it's Yarn Crook with Matthews and Marner,
Kerfoot with Kneelander and Tavares.
That line has not really looked great when the three of those guys are together.
And then O'Reilly centering the third line.
I thought there was a chance maybe you'd see them go to that.
O'Reilly, Tavares, Kneelander, Lineman, and who knows, maybe they do throughout the game.
Mitch Marner is mad.
He's very upset.
He showed a lot of passion today in there post practice,
where he said that they don't even read social media or listen to the media at all.
So you think that they're going to be playing tight on Mitch Marner.
It's not.
Like we said, I think if you like Toronto in this game,
you should just play them to win the series or Stanley Cup, whatever.
But I don't see any betting value here at all on either side.
So I'll stay away.
You'll be on the Panthers and we'll move on.
Euler's and Knight's Edmonton minus 190 at home here coming off of a a drumming.
I got to I was listening to this coming home from softball and that's why I got to listen to Armin Jack.
Michael's out there in the near neck of the woods.
Alberta.
He was so mad at the Edmonton Euler's and he had every right to be from the sounds of it and from what I saw of the game.
So they're going to host Vegas who comes in plus 160 up to one in the series and the total set at seven.
I think it's a little bit of both things where the betting market has overrated Edmonton a little bit and they were good.
I mean, and they are good.
Perhaps the two best players in the world right now on their team and they were 18, two and one since getting at home.
They went into the playoffs on a nine game winning streak.
They looked great in a 4-2 win over Los Angeles.
Sure, they had some moments here and there, but they were buoyed by a power play that went 57% and the power plays been there for them against Vegas so far, but they didn't get any power plays in game three and the Knights were just better than them.
Five on five.
The Euler's had a ton of defensive breakdowns.
The Darnell nurse looked terrible.
Cody Cece looked terrible.
I mean, even Evan Bouchard, I thought was pretty bad.
So it was like a mix of that we've overrated Edmonton a tad and probably underrated Vegas with Mark Stone a little bit.
I don't know how you can lay minus 190 with Edmonton given their goaltending situation as well.
I know Aidan Hill's going for Vegas, but I don't really see much of a difference between Hill and Brossoir at all, especially that now that Hill's shaken the rust off and he did it impressively.
So it would be Vegas or nothing for me and I don't hate it at plus 160.
Yeah, I think you're definitely counting on, you know, the Euler's bouncing back, but it doesn't seem like they're going to have that edge at five on five you want.
Maybe if you're backing a team at this number with that said, yeah, that's a fair point to.
I'd probably just look towards Edmonton props.
It looks like a spot where they're really going to have a big offensive night and maybe you could consider a team total to.
And the one thing I do feel like there's I know we're trained to look so much at numbers and like that's ultimately what does matter.
I feel like there has been a lot of these playoff spots this year where maybe I passed on the team that I just thought was going to win because I didn't think I was getting the number.
I wonder if this could be another one of those, but this is getting into the extreme extremes when you're talking about backing a team that's kind of giving out play.
They're not playing Seattle, right?
And that's not to disrespect Seattle. I'm just saying like this, this is the team that won their division.
Yeah, and I think Vegas has a legitimately better decor that'll probably piss off some Euler fans, but I feel like if you look at it to a man, right now that's probably fair to say.
The Euler's have the ways to manage that and cover that and they're going to end up with more power placement.
The last game is probably going to be somewhat of a balance between the two, but the one note that is interesting and I think does hold a lot of relevance and a lot of different betting areas.
It's like, so up to game five.
Typically we see more power plays and then game six and seven when there's none.
So that's one thing to note for the Euler's is this season or series goes on.
Let me be interested to see how it looks in game four.
It does feel like these ones were that seeps into their F's mind.
What team probably got seemingly more of the breaks.
It's not in the island.
It almost feels like it matters.
I don't know.
If the island was going to have a few more.
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