Nobody wins. Let's everybody win.
This is your climb.
We're in this game.
We're going to go back to the back of the back of the game.
That impossible goal.
These guys aren't good.
Staring good.
Your most proud is going by the bananas.
As they say in hockey, let's do that hockey.
Glory won and welcome back to LineChange, the NHL betting podcast from the action network presented to you by BetMGM.
My name is Michael Lee Buff joining me.
As always is Nick Martin and Nick.
We will be looking at Friday and Saturday in the National Hockey League Stanley Cup playoffs.
Round two.
Game five for Florida Toronto.
Game five for Edmonton Vegas.
And then on Saturday will be Seattle and Dallas game five.
Excuse me, game six.
As they're still playing right now as we're recording Dallas is up three to heading into the intermission.
So.
A lot to get to here.
I think Friday.
Round two.
No matter what, you know, hockey unless you you're you're a fan of one of the teams that is in it and especially to the Carolina Hurricanes fans think round two is kind of underwhelms compared to round one.
That's not a.
You know how to take it.
Everyone keeps saying that things kind of picked up today over time game between Carolina and New Jersey.
Seattle and Dallas.
It was three nothing Dallas and Seattle fought back but.
Bedding aside, I think Friday has the potential to be.
The best night of this round for sure.
And we'll start with Florida in Toronto.
Toronto comes back home after taking game four in a two one effort.
I thought that the game plan there was.
Was pretty evident from the start Toronto just.
Committing itself to really gumming up things in the middle of the ice.
I did a great job defensively.
That's a really well played game.
There were some quotes out there that that was their best game of the season.
Sure.
Maybe given the spot.
I think I do this stuff that you know those kinds of analysts love.
Then yes, I'd give it to them.
Probably their best offensive game of the year.
I think when you talk about the stakes and whatever and pressure.
Sure.
They want an elimination game.
That's true.
That's why I win against my Toronto takes because.
Kind of winning against my belief in this team just because of how hard of a spot.
I felt like it was to kind of turn the negativity and Florida is playing really well.
And yeah, no, you got Joseph Walverses Bobrovsky.
So.
So I actually haven't.
I didn't want to ask you this like just in our casual conversations that we have while we're watching the game.
Because as soon as that game ended.
My first thought was do they try to do this again.
Because I think that when you're when you have your back against the wall and you're going to have it against the wall for.
Every game for the rest of the series if no matter how long it goes.
There's a couple different ways you can approach it and one of them is to just do what the Leafs did.
Commit yourself to.
To forcing the other team to.
Power their way through you make yourself hard to beat.
But I don't think that's what we really associate Toronto with.
We were there more of a team that you think goes out and tries to beat their opponent.
Because they're usually got more talent and.
They'll just bet on that.
So.
My question is a.
Is that do we see the Leafs kind of.
Abandoned what worked for them in game four.
And play more into the.
Yeah, and they were good defensively during the regular season.
I'm not saying they weren't, but they weren't that.
They didn't play like that.
So do you think that they'll be they'll take their they'll put push the.
Pedal to the metal a little more.
Here in game five.
And is that the right thing to do?
I don't know.
I have no idea how they're going to approach this one and.
Or how they should.
Jen honestly.
Yeah, I think that's pretty much the way games are going to look the rest of the series.
Like that's quietly been the way Leafs elimination games have gone for like four years.
They won one and like they were the team that was really good defensively, but.
That's kind of been more or less the game script.
I don't know if.
I mean, you're you're asking to get the bounces and if you do that, right?
That's just I see your point.
Like you've got to win four in a row in like coin foot type games, but like.
Would it?
Are they going to change it?
Like it worked good.
It's probably still the best chance.
You know, Florida's going to be opportunistic.
You got to insulate Joseph Wall pretty well and I thought he's the.
He's probably not calling much and I mean to be fair, his numbers all year.
Great, like we are kind of picking on him in terms of like the idea that.
He's experienced.
Yeah, so and I mean he was sharp in the game, but they did really, really good.
Like if you watch the real back, it was like giving up one goal is probably about what we'd see out of most goalies, I think.
And I'm sure like the team could probably, you know, get some confidence because he did look sharp early and that probably helped, but.
Who knows they're probably not going to defend a ton better than that.
So we'll see. And then we know as the series goes on, the whistles are going to go away.
I think kind of Florida's shown that they like working in that game environment a little more.
So that's maybe one interesting note.
When we talk about this game, I don't really see much betting value here.
I'm not back to wanting to get on the leaf yet like the minus one 75 in this game.
I feel like once that game ended and I saw that line post, I was just, I was cracking up because.
They were minus one 50. Right.
It was what we said for game three in Florida, then they go down to minus.
They went off minus one 15.
By the time the puck dropped and now they're back up to minus one 75 at home.
The swings.
In this playoffs and we've talked about the zigzag way becoming at the play in the hockey and.
And just the maybe momentum being it's always overrated and playoff series always.
In terms of betting value, but this one I was just like this.
I think Florida has shown that they're better than what we thought they were going to be before the series.
And this is kind of where these prices, you know, we're hanging around.
They're back up to plus one fifty five there.
I don't. I don't know if you're going to see the least dominate the way you want for a team at that.
And that's one of the things that you want to bet on these playoff games, but that's what I keep seeing with like, like I've faded the stars tonight, which probably isn't going to work out well.
But when I think about something like that, there's so many regular season games where teams minus 200 and I love them so much more than like Dallas tonight or Florida Toronto tomorrow minus one 75.
So they're playing teams like, you know, Detroit.
Yeah, and like you can you know, the if the games aren't as tight like skill shows through more sometimes.
It just feels like sometimes in the playoffs, it is harder on that front. And then this series has been like the like for me personally, it's been rough, but I don't think my takes them in that bad either.
Like the riding kneelander, he comes through a game for I was riding the Leafs, then I get sucked into Florida because it was plus 110 and the way the games have gone, felt like a good coin flip number.
That doesn't work out.
I think first glance like it just, it seems like a pretty tough one. I could be interested in going under on wall saves.
Again, I did put that in my same game parlay article for that for game four.
We'll see where it gets set at.
But I think that could potentially be a good look under 30.5 because I don't really think the script is going to change that much. I think it's just going to be another really tight game.
So that's maybe one I'm interested in. I still think me landers playing really, really well. One thing that I really think the Leafs should do as a team, I know the power place clicking, but it always clicks. So that doesn't really prove a lot.
Having Riley on the top power play unit for me, it doesn't make a lot of sense. The biggest issue when things don't go well is still gaining zone.
I think the final ender is excellent at gaining the zone with controlled entry. He's been one of the most prolific power play producers.
I don't think it makes a lot of sense. And then the other thing is you have all three of your centers on the ice for that. And the second it ends, you've got to sort this out.
You've got a massive line. So then there is doing some combination of the fourth line with new lander out there.
I think that doesn't make sense. That's one of those things. And I think there's a couple notes like this entering this game where they're not changing it because it's worked, but I don't think that means that it is the ideal way to do it.
So we'll see. That's something to watch. I think same thing with Nize. It sounds like he is close, but they're just going to not put him in because the lineup worked last game, which I guess is respectable. You don't want to get him in there and then lose his body, but it feels like that's Shelby's key.
Not going to change anything. Yeah, I know that not just that. I just think that it was a concussion and he's 20, whatever, you know, 21.
Yeah, I liked the take. I saw that him getting tackled and concussed proved that he wasn't ready because it's like saying that nobody else gets concussed.
I think would be kind of if you're saying that would be argument, but I just think that it'd be unfair to the two.
It'd be tough to rush him back in and it's such a bad look like you saw the frickin dolphins this year, how big of a shit show that was.
And, you know, you don't want to do that.
One point that kind of relates to what my general kind of question about this game is that the home games for the Leafs, they're able to get the matchups they want, which I think is a pretty big deal when the other team has Mark Stahl.
One of the defense pairing that fourth line for Florida struggled on the road. They're better. I thought they were fine in sunrise, but that's, I think, going to help Toronto a little bit.
And that's why I'm wondering if this thing's going to open up a little bit more than what we saw. And I think kind of plays into your Joseph Wall thing, which is, I see the Leafs really just this looking like game one and two actually.
And that might be sound simple because it's in Toronto, but with the way that they should be able to get matchups and control play, they should.
This is your famous last words, they should come out with their hair on fire at home. Like it does feel like it's going to be a weather, the storm kind of game for Florida. It's almost almost like Florida.
Their best chance of this game is to just copy what Toronto did in game.
Great. And I think that's been the recipe for teams for Underdogs beating Toronto in all these NOCO games for years. And just because the way they want to play in the offensive zone and attack and hold the puck.
I think you just want to be safe. And that ties into my next thought. I could see, I think if Florida is holding like a 2-1 lead midway through the second or something like that, I think the live under could be a really good play.
Because that seems to be the way that these Leafs elimination games go. I know that doesn't mean it has to be a rule, but I get the feeling that a lot of the reasons that it's gone that way historically are still kind of in place.
Last year versus Tampa, I went on the Leafs live team total under because it just felt like, you know, one of those perfect looks. And I could see this kind of being that way. So I feel like it's going to be a tight game.
I think there could be some potential for some good live plays on that as well.
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So that's 7 o'clock Eastern time, 10 o'clock Eastern time is Edmonton.
Vegas Oilers tie it up to 2.
The Oilers are just patterning out their playoffs here for us.
I mean, it looks like the stars might be as well.
Just go drop 2 of the first 3 and come back and take over the series from there.
That said, it's still 2-2. We're going to Vegas.
Edmonton is a road favourite, minus 130.
That's about where they've been for the first two games of the series as well in Vegas.
Over under 7, 3 of the 4 games have gone under the total here, but you know, they've been some laughers involved.
The series has been very... It's not been fun to watch as a neutral, I don't think at all.
Yeah, I agree.
I mean, it hasn't been like many compelling back and forth games.
Game 1 was good. Probably was good to be good, but the... I mean, the Oilers made it competitive, so it was watchable,
but that hasn't really been a consistent trend in the series.
And it's been Herky Jerky. The team that loses just doesn't show up.
And then they take a bunch of dumb panel, and it just gets out of hand.
Half the reason people thought the last game was exciting was there was new A's at the end and stuff,
which I guess is interesting if you're still watching the game, but it's been pretty painful.
Yeah, I just woke up and was like, all right, and I saw the Petriangelo slash and him get smoked by Kane.
And I'm like, well, that's what I missed. But yeah, I guess we should just note that.
Darnell, that suspension is absolutely a joke.
That being one and one is a joke. I know that Vegas has some valid arguments that Petriangelo had been cross-checked.
That should have been one.
But that's not the guy who did it.
That like, Petriangelo getting one, I think was a, it was a horrific call.
I think every single person that I've talked to has said that they were like expecting two.
I mean, and that low key, I knew that it was going to be one.
Like I was so sorry to me.
Of course, and you have to kill somebody in the jail.
That or accidentally clip their head. If you clip their head, they'll give you five, which I, I'm not even arguing that that's wrong.
I just, my point is that if there's a play like this where it's so unnecessary, the entire point of it has nothing to do with playing the game.
You can just come down and be like, you, like, you know what I mean?
Like if you said a higher standard, you're not going to have to be happy.
Like, like if you're Zach Dowpey of the Florida Panthers and you're looking five, one tomorrow, why wouldn't you just two hand Austin Matthews and there is.
There's no reason.
Right.
Your team would love you. They'd probably, you know, you'd be having a set of.
And that you built for yourself outside of Florida, live arena or something. Yeah.
And that's the problem is I think they'd let the envelope get pushed too far over and over in this series.
I don't, and I mean to be fair to them, I think some of this stuff was really tough.
Like I don't think you could really give a playoff game for it, but it just felt like they, this series slowly got a little too off the rails.
I don't know if we'll see that in this next game unless someone, unless there's another blow out, but exactly.
And then it's score dependent, I think, to talk, you know, batting wise, we've talked about during the playoffs.
Odds makers have been sharper and smarter, which they were here because I was sitting there waiting to see if I could find anything at home or Shay theater related, especially because it kind of coincides with the fact that I think offensively Shay theaters do for a little better.
And that he has had an abnormal amount of shots blocked for someone who's usually actually pretty decent at getting them through.
I think that I'll probably still end up on over two and a half shots. I was just hoping to get the exact same number as I got in game four when I lost on this bet.
So I was watching all day for that. They had it suspended all day. It's back up now. I think it's around plus 125, which is playable.
And then the other one, I think that comes really interesting because even more so than Theodore, I think the Oilers are going to be so forced to play him huge minutes without nurse being the other top left defender.
And he will draw into the second power play, which doesn't mean a lot because that's probably a 20 seconds power play time every power play.
But still, I think I can't the very reasonable look. I think he has six shots in the last two games anyways.
So yeah, he's a guy that I'm going to keep my eye on for this one.
The, I think the over is in play here at seven plus one 15 and it comes out of the goal 10. We might see Jonathan quick.
Yeah, that's, I mean, I like the others in the over two if we're talking. Yeah.
Besides, I think those will be the square takes, but like with. Yeah.
It's a golden. It's a golden situation.
Also.
I don't know who I would.
Yeah, that's it. I'm seeing people being like, how is quick not come in? Have a look at quick numbers. I think he's near the absolute bottom.
Isn't played in a month. Isn't played in a month. And there's kind of a reason. Like, right.
So you want to put in.
I'm seeing a lot of ex players commenting. Yeah, I mean, it's kind of like saying.
If you're an ex player, go out and jump in an NHL game right now and see how you do. Like, I feel like that's kind of what it is because you're rating so much on what quick did in 2014.
And how like he could come out and stand on his head.
But for sure.
I would say, so here's how I had view this. If Jonathan quick isn't goal for Vegas tomorrow, I would love every bit of Edmonton. I would love.
You know, minus two and a half said love.
You know, whatever same game parlays with the over.
Gold score, Palooza.
Like, whatever you want to do, go go have yourself a night back in the Oilers.
Yeah, so quick.
Sorry, just to cut. So quick.
So, you know, minus 17.2 goal saved above expected rating is the fifth worst in the league this season. His save percentage was 882. So.
And I mean, when he was with the case, that's what you're going to say. The Kings were a good defensive team too. Like, they're not a team.
We're looking at those numbers and being like, he was getting sued more than these analytics or suggesting, which is something I would say about like goalies from Columbus and teams like that.
I don't think that was happening.
So, who knows like he had a couple of good games right when he got to Vegas. I mean, goal 10 is hard to.
But he's he's the type of goalie that let's see if I can get this out and make it make sense.
Like, there's there's probably a better chance that Jonathan quick outright steals the game than Aidan Hill, but there's a better chance that Aidan Hill just gives you the solid NHL goal tending you need to win five four.
Like, like if you if you have Jonathan quick in and and Hill wasn't good in the first period in game four and and the nights were never able to get back from that but if you're if you're looking at these two goal is you're like, who who has, who's given me the better chance.
Like if if I was to bet Edmonton right now, I would feel so much better if they tapped quick.
Then Hill and that's what I'll be waiting for because if it is, if it is quick, like I think you can have, you have yourself a really fun time with some some oil or stuff.
So that's what I think there's definitely some good narratives for the over to where this game could get really off the rails where if you wanted to put like some old stuff or if you're someone.
I mean, because skin has skinners been all over the place too. Like, yeah, and these dry up a series where long, however, you have to know that the refs are the one who are refs this game tomorrow is being told by the league like, call it tight.
Don't let any show so on first from take just one minutes. Yeah, first 10 minutes will be like I think it'll be a power place.
Yeah, and this had so many anyways, like I've kind of been waiting on the cool off but I think tomorrow we'll see it called tight early on. So, and you know what I should slide into I actually think the other prop I like is why Newsy and Hopkins over two and a half.
He got back with McDavid last year.
I had the goal. Yeah, so I think that one, that numbers not moved enough from where he was playing like he's been really quiet he's not generating much on his own but now he gets played with McDavid. So easy case there.
Okay, devils and hurricanes are wrapped Carolina hurricanes are through to the Eastern Conference final. They'll have at least a few, you know, like a week off. I think, unless they start one without the other which the NHL never does.
So, you tip your cap to Carolina. And that brings us to Seattle and Dallas. Like I said, they're still going right now for a game five Dallas up three to.
I'm not I'm not too concerned with how this rest of this game plays out because the thing is the same kind of this this series more than the others I'm just like.
I'm just going into my sled and riding it downhill until I get to the bottom of the hill with and which is like the crack and are just going to be undervalued the stars are going to be a little overvalued and if you want to just, you know, if you want to zigzag or you want to back back momentum like go right ahead but
that's stick with Seattle and we'll see how I was in your boat tonight. I was really thought the crack and her value side. I played bad, you know, I just Dallas that everything up the real group.
Yeah, and those were like five minutes. Yeah, it's just most things they happen. You know, they broke down. You know what he was making one out of the what he's making one of those saves in the games that they've been winning.
Yeah, but and who knows it's 32 to 32 Seattle's pushing maybe we I'm hoping this gets to our time. I've made a promise to someone that if the crack and win this game in overtime, I will buy one of the teal Adam Larson third jerseys.
So I will hold my for you or for that person for me and I never were non caps jerseys but if they do that, I will be excited enough to do that.
So you'll be seeing me online change sometime soon in that if that's the case. Yeah, when they're when they're playing the hurricanes and the Stanley Cup final maybe. Yeah, I'll give a shout out to the hurricanes.
I think you could say they're playing the best team hockey of any team right now doing what they're doing. And they were so lucky to be the Islanders.
Yeah, yeah.
The Islanders, by the way, we still haven't heard from the general manager nor the head coach. And we're now almost two weeks from from their locker room breakdown so nobody knows what's going on there.
I reached out to a couple friends of the programs who work for sports net and they're like, I got no idea either. So who knows there. But yeah, the hurricanes.
They are, I think I had it right with them going into the devil's series like there's just such a stylistic nightmare for some teams.
And they will be completely exposed against a select few teams I think, depending on like what the matchup is.
And I guess the devil's just couldn't really figure it out. I thought Carolina was just swarming and so good at, I mean, the devil should have won that game. I think they had to.
I mean, Carolina had a couple good chances, but it was close. It was super close. Yeah, it was. But I think that just the timing of the devil's chances.
But anyways, you have to be your cat to Carolina. They just they're they're a tough team to go against because they play so such a like different.
Yeah, you have to think arrested Carolina would be a really bad matchup for Florida in particular. I think I kind of, I think both you'd have to like their chances, but I feel like if Florida wins in like seven and Carolina's just sitting there waiting for that being D core.
And I want to actually I did want to actually bring up Carolina will sign off with this is we haven't really talked much about their cons Mike market at all because who might know where you're going with this.
Who the hell those? Freddy Anderson. He was like 11. I can't get I can't pull up the number now because there's a game going on, but he was so short and I couldn't believe it.
And then I started to think about it. And I'm like, then he's got the narrative. He came in. He won the series when it clincher against the Islanders and he played really well against the devil's firing one game.
But I do think that the blow up potential is there for Freddy like and I think that the injury potential is there for Freddy and I think that it's like 50 50, even if Carolina wins the Stanley Cup that we see at least one game of anti ranta again.
Maybe two. Yeah, like I don't think so. If it's if it's if that's if that's where you thought I was going.
But but my point using that is I got no like I guess it's ajo right now. Like he.
Yeah, I'm kind of coming around on burns if you're going to take a little punt. But the interesting thing there is like, I don't even think he's more valuable to them than slavin.
But he's he's getting more points. And he's 38 year old with the beard and everybody loves it.
That's true. I wonder if he's got a bit of an edge. Who knows though. There's a Jordan Martin up in there. That would be insane.
I I need it. I forgot to. I feel like he's got a slowdown in terms of his production. I mean, this is a guy.
It's an amazing story. I think they feel like earlier in the year and now he's the best scorer in the house.
Right.
But it's pretty wild.
You got to love it though. Someone had to step up for them.
I'm going to be kicking myself because this is the one year I've decided no Carolina.
Yeah. So we're talking about matchups, but I think for them almost bar except for Seattle.
I just don't think that they match up well with the West. I'm going to go get there when we get there.
I I'd like the way they match up with Dallas really well. I think I think that I'm I texted you this today. I'm just accepting that I should put an exact on Carolina to beat Dallas in the final. Not that I hate either of the teams,
but they're the ones that I find the least interesting and that I've kind of not clip. We'll just have Noah or Matt clip together. The 37 times this season we said, not sold on Dallas.
I know. And that's the thing is like they're the two coming into the playoffs. So many people had.
Yeah. Carolina might beat the Islanders, but then they're going to run into either New Jersey or the Rangers in round two and get stomped because they can't score.
Good takes. So yeah, enjoy the games Friday night. I think both of us are in agreement on basically passing. I'll continue to one of these. I keep thinking one of these Toronto, Florida games is going to go off the rails.
And even though this one is this the series is trending the opposite way I'm going to continue. I keep getting one or two of the D. any time goal scores in my lottery ticket, right? I had kneelander again, but I didn't single him.
Of course, I just, you know, just playing these lot of tickets like an idiot. So, but I think generally that that games have passed for us.
Oilers, some overs. If Jonathan quick is starting, run, don't walk. And then Seattle Kraken.
Yeah, John, then quick starting and like could be a game strip where the refs call a lot of penalties. That sounds not not like a good recipe.
If you want to bet some of the other power play props, I think, but otherwise not a lot. Yeah, you know, I'm getting excited about the potential of the leads coming back from three oh down.
It would be the only way that they could ever snap out of this absurd absurd run. I watched four days in October, the 30 for 30.
Yeah, it sucks. Yeah. Someone got my gums all up again. Yeah, I mean, I've, I've, I've, like I said to you, Barry, we both were coached by Barry Trotts and he would always tell us that the fourth is the hardest to win.
And he's right. And yeah, I, I, my gut tells me this thing's going seven. So we'll see.
Anyways, I know it's funny because if it goes seven, the one team that could come all the way back and lose is the leaves. Yeah. I'd be curious to hear is anyone come back from three oh down and lost in game seven. Yeah, black cocks against the Canucks.
Okay, Alex Burrows. Right. Okay, that was from Chris Campoli former Islander turn turns a puck over.
Find this way to Alex Burrows and he beat Corey Crawford, I believe, or is it in the end, whoever was in go for the Hawks at the time, but Corey Schneider got in that series, I believe it was a weird one.
But yeah, on that note, we will see you again. We were court against Sunday night, which means we could be previewing a game seven for for Lisa Panthers.
Hopefully some more series is than that. Yeah, we'll see. I hope the crack in game six, you know, give us something. Yeah, or they could all be over.
I think so. Oh, what around that would be a predict mark. I'm Michael Eboff. Thanks again for listening to line change and we'll see you again in a couple of days.
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