Nobody wins. Let's everybody win.
This is your climb.
We're in this game.
I'm going to break the puck back.
Let it possible go.
These guys aren't good.
Staring good.
This crowd is going for the bananas.
As they say in hockey, let's do that hockey.
Hello everyone. Welcome back to Line Change.
The NHL betting podcast from the action network presented to you by BetMGM.
My name is Michael Lee-Boff joining me late on this Tuesday evening.
The first night of round two is my co-host and colleague friend Nick Martin.
Nick will take a look at Wednesday's game ones between New Jersey,
Carolina and Minton and Vegas and then ahead to Thursday's game two is between
Florida and Toronto, Seattle and Dallas full disclosure.
We are recording this late in the stars and cracking game.
Joe Povelsky is on pace for 11 goals in this game apparently.
But I think we've seen enough to have a pretty good idea of where the value lies.
I know that what happens in this game won't kind of deter me from what I'm thinking
for that game two in Dallas in a couple of nights.
But let's start with Wednesday night and let's start with the New Jersey Devils.
When we last recorded, we talked about the Devils and Rangers in game seven.
We talked about how before the game, you could make such a good argument for both sides.
But it really seemed like everybody was leaning towards what you were thinking with the Rangers,
the goaltending, the experience, etc.
Being the difference.
And now if you look back hindsight,
I'm almost like Jesus Christ, that Devils game, that Devils perform, it's hard to even
see past it and have given the Rangers a chance.
And I know that's recently by being a prisoner of what happened.
But it was an impressive game.
And a reason I bring that up is I think it's going to end up putting a little bit of betting
value on Carolina here in a game to game basis.
The Devils right now are plus 100 on the road in Carolina.
Hurricanes minus 120 over under five and a half.
I'll flip it to you right away because I have some thoughts here on why I think the
canes might be the right side for this curtain razor on Wednesday night.
Yeah, I was really mad at myself because I feel like I got sucked into a bunch of crap
that I had never rate in that game seven and I've loved the Devils all year.
So it was one of those ones once I got in that game.
It's hard to say that though.
I mean, you look at that goaltending matchup in a game seven.
That's the thing, but it didn't they got dominated.
But did you see that?
Did anyone see that?
Out of all of round one.
Like I don't think you could name no, that was the word gate where one team that clearly
pummeled them.
I would like I was I know and I kept reading for a bit of a pushback or like the opportunistic
goal didn't come.
There was that no point.
It was not that it was it was evident from the first shift like the hunt.
The punch wrapped and it just looked like the Rangers were like, Holy shit.
And then they got a couple power plays and I was like, okay, this is the time.
This is when the Rangers find a find a way they're going to steal it with this power
play.
No, they never had anything going whatsoever.
And yeah, I actually I like the Devils in this series.
I just feel like what they're playing right now, they have that like that speed that four
check and the attention to detail coming back up the ice that Carolina has.
And I think they're just doing it now with a lot of names that are more legitimate scoring
talent and like with respect to Carolina, that's due to the injuries.
But I just think it seems to me like there's more moving in the right direction if the
Devils are going to get goal tending than than what Carolina has offered.
And on top of that, like, I don't think that the I was tested Carolina's net mining situation
as anywhere near the level that New Jersey will.
And I think that could prove to be a concern.
So I actually am going to be targeting the Devils in this.
I was hoping like you said, the one the one flaw in that is the market is respecting the
Devils a lot, but I still think plus one of four plus 100 in this first game is a pretty
good number.
So I like those.
I was hoping to get them on a series price, but that didn't work out the way I'd hoped
where it was so wide.
And I think it's kind of the same with an Edmonton one Edmonton series where it's like, if you're
going to bet them, I wouldn't bet them pre series as a favorite.
I'd rather just bet them in game one as an underdog or or an Edmonton's case in price
evenly.
But yeah, like I don't see why you bet them at minus 150 before the series.
If you're not interested in them, game one at a much better price.
So same kind of case there.
And then you can consider like how game one looks if maybe they look good and lose, then
maybe you can get on the series price or something like that.
But yeah, that's that's kind of my thinking here is maybe threading the needle a little
bit and maybe it's getting a little too cute, but it's a playoff.
So why not?
The reason I like Carolina is one you touched on it.
The market is going to respect the Devils.
I still think that this number is going to the Devils are still going to take money.
We could see them.
This game close even closer to a pick them than it is.
The other thing I want to say is stylistically, this matchup is very strange, I think for a
New Jersey.
I know they had success against Carolina in the regular season, but the Rangers were more
of I guess like you'd say like a half court kind of offense team, you know, if you want
to use across sport parallel, Carolina just presses you and they're so good in chaos.
They're so good and 50 50 pucks and protecting against those 50 50 battles going awry.
What the Devils do so well and they did so well against the Rangers was not only winning
the 50 50 pucks, like if a pucks bouncing at the blue line, you'll just notice one of
the Devils forwards just takes off, right?
Like he's gone and he's he's betting if it's Jack Hughes or Jasper Brad, whoever it is,
that player is betting if this puck bounces over Adam Fox's stick, Andre Pilate is skating
onto it and we have a two on one.
Carolina is so good at managing those situations.
It's such a strange skill, but it's something I've said about this team for so long and
I've seen them do it to the Islanders in two different playoff series and I've seen them
just just handle teams and absorb pace really well.
I think it there's this game one.
The cliche is always game one is a feeling out process.
I think this one more than any of the four will be that.
I mean, we saw the Panthers and Leafs kind of just drop the puck and go for it.
I think we've seen the same thing out of Seattle and Dallas.
Of course, that first period was up to rails and we'll likely see that out of Edmonton
and Vegas, whereas New Jersey and Carolina, I just think it's going to be kind of a all
the people that watch New Jersey, the casual fans that were like, damn, this team is fun.
When they watch game seven against the Rangers, I just don't think that team's going to be
able to show up in game one.
It's just going to take some time to just to a completely different style.
I know the talent gap is huge, but this Carolina team still has his respectable.
So I think at home, if you can get them at this minus one 20, but I still think we'll
see money coming on New Jersey, it's interesting.
And then I think as a series goes on, that talent gap and the goal tending issues start
to show up and you can almost build yourself a little middle.
Yeah, I could actually see this one ending up being fairly high scoring too.
And like same thing with Carolina, it's a whole different look for them now facing off
against some of the devil's two way stars.
So could go both ways for some of the defensive puck movement looking a lot worse.
It's a little different way.
Those calendars can run a gun just like the devil's can.
Yeah, they got a couple of old wagons that can't quite skate like the devil's, but I guess
it's different sport.
It's different.
Completely different sport.
You know, I just play compared to New Jersey.
It's wild.
Yeah, I'm, I'm, I'm, I think, pretty keen to see other one shakes out because I just
think that everyone's going to be way too hyped on New Jersey.
And hell, they could come out here.
They could sweep this team and I wouldn't be shocked, but it's just, well, yeah, I'm
like, they're, they're offensive talent too.
Just look so much deeper right now.
And some of those guys, that was the crazy thing is like some of those guys and a lot
of the chances they got to were just certain play.
It's so, so well.
Yeah.
They could have been like, I could see it just being a thing where it's a go on show for
Carolina trying to get some of those saves.
And the one line I want to watch the he sure line because they weren't that productive
in that series, but they were really, really good.
And I think they could be due to really, really break out.
And that's one I kind of want to try to watch in the prop market because typically, you
know, the production does matter, like getting the chances does hurt their numbers, but the
actual production also affects the lines.
And I feel like if they had produced the way they could have, we might be looking at
drastically worse prices.
So that's one that I want to try to get on early in this series.
Yeah, I have a team of myer written down.
We'll see.
I think he'll play.
But he's been shooting, but he's got a.
Yeah, I think he's got a 28 shots, 28 shots on goal.
And one, none of them went in.
She's sturking.
And to be fair, he takes some horrible shots.
Yeah.
Yeah, they're so much team.
He's one of those ones you love to bet as a like shop prop better because you never get
teased when the pucks on his stick.
He'll just, it's just like fling it from the wall.
It's on the net.
Because some of these guys like they'll have the puck half the game and they'll be delaying
and trying to find passes and all this stuff.
And then, you know, maybe they'll fling it up the net last second or something or they'll
take shots if they're really there.
Yeah, but he's a.
He's the guy that I'm looking at as a game to game.
I think plus six fifties too short to bet him to lead this series and goals.
If I'm looking for a long shot, you mentioned him, I think before the Islander series.
I find nascent as a long shot around 31.
What's burns too.
Yeah, yeah, because I think it's still interesting.
He's firing.
Just need to get tipped in watching tonight.
Just a quick little aside, especially when things are going a little tough.
I wrote an article I was big on paths to be the leading goal score last series comes back
four goals in the first game.
Didn't bet it.
Didn't even think about betting it.
I mean, in your defense, he was questionable.
Good game one.
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All right, so that's Devil's Carolina, Edmonton, and Vegas we touched on in our last episode,
but we can kind of put a bow on it here.
Oilers minus 120 now for game one, even money for the Knights plus 6 and I, absolutely over
under 6 and a half.
The Oilers are a decent favorite to win the series, even though they don't have home ice,
but I think game one is the way to go.
And then if they fall behind, no matter how they fall behind in the series, even if they
lose these first two, I believe in this team to have the potential to just rattle off
for wins in a row like that.
So I'll be on Edmonton here for game one.
I don't think there's much value in the prop market because you're going to have to try
to beat McDavid or Drycidal in terms of most goal scores or anything like that.
So I'll just look away from those and just wave the white flag and stick with the team
bet of Oilers in game one.
Yeah, I think that's really solid.
I like the Oilers here and I think they will find a way to get it done.
All right, Florida and Toronto.
Florida took game one.
I think it was a pretty impressive effort from the Panthers, just a well deserved win.
One thing I think I noticed with the Panthers compared to the main beliefs is, I'm excuse
the Panthers compared to the lightning is Tampa Bay didn't really push back.
Like when the Leafs would start to really sink their teeth into the game against the
lightning, it felt like Tampa's way, they would just try to weather the storm rather
than trying to produce one themselves.
Florida is doing the opposite.
They're going to try to go toe to toe here and it worked tonight.
Sir, get Nebraska is really good.
I know you were on the over that game probably goes over eight out of 10 times with the way
it played out.
I think that's pretty hard.
I think that goes over 95% of the time.
I'm very fair when I make a bad bet.
That wasn't a bad bet.
That was an absurd beat.
Not just the fact that the ending got a little like the four or two held for so long through
and empty net and all those leaks chances early on that first period.
I was like, how in God's name is this one nothing?
It could have been three three three.
I actually disagree with my take with that take on the game though.
I thought that the main thing was just the least not finishing like sure Florida had
a lot of good chances, but I'm looking at Florida.
Toronto had 5.8 expected goals.
I think that's very fair.
I thought there was a ton of chances that it were just not finished like the knee lander
one coming across late.
I thought there were so many examples of looks like that you got an Austin Matthews breakaway
50 seconds in like there were so many ones where it was just the breakdown was made and
the only thing that didn't happen was the puck going in the net.
Like I'm not discrediting that Florida generated a lot, but at the end of the day, I think in
my opinion, it was just one of those games where the decisive factor was just that the
Leafs didn't finish at the same level.
And like obviously we're talking about Florida here as an underdog.
So you got to keep that in mind when you're talking about like betting and all of the
stuff who control more of the play.
But I actually feel like that was a pretty positive result for Toronto.
Yeah, but I think it was one where both teams probably come out and say if you've just
flipped this goal, no matter how that game ends with one team winning, like don't take
anybody would be too mixed.
Florida did generate.
I thought the goal heading was just hilarious, honestly.
The save on the lander, I know they were already at 4-2 really late in that one, but that was
there are some crazy sequences.
Like I thought there was just there is a lot.
I honestly feel pretty good about where Toronto's game was at.
If they can just clean it up a little bit, I feel like they're really going to get to
some of these some of these Panthers, D-Men.
So we'll see.
I like them in the over in game two.
I think that that's a solid play, something like a five, three Leafs win.
I still think this is going to be such a good series on the prop market too.
Yeah.
Because it's just it's going to be so high event that typically those things don't get
adjusted quickly enough.
Yeah, I was close with it.
And like yeah, I agree.
The breakdowns were there both ways.
I just I think that overall there was enough that it would be fair to say on average if
you reran those chances that the Leafs had done enough, but who knows?
I mean, and realistically, it's not insane to say that Bob should actually be better
than Sammy too.
Kind of crazy to think, but he is such a like Enigma Babrowski.
I really wonder what his reputation would be if his if his contract and we won't really
get into this because this is a betting show, but what his reputation would be if his contract
was five and a half million, you know, like it would just be yes, you know, completely
different.
The Kraken and Knights now, like I said, these two teams are going edit.
They're going to head to overtime.
And this one closed Seattle plus 175 for game one Dallas minus 210 and a total five and
a half.
I'm happy that I sat out game one to watch this.
And if this number closes around there again, I'll be on the cracking.
That was I couldn't agree more.
I think that this is we've seen this so much from the Dallas and this is why I just never
have been that high on this team.
It's one game.
I thought they had moments like this in round one, too, though, where I'd even strength.
I don't think their play looks that sharp.
I thought the Kraken had some really, really good moments and they could have been up five
to a lot of the time in this game.
Who knows though?
I said this in around one and then Dallas just elevating their play the whole time, but
it did it felt like the Kraken kind of deserved to hang on and they just couldn't do it and
yeah, the group hours thing is a little scary.
Yeah, and no little scary.
The third goal was bad.
Yes.
Yeah.
And that was, you know, you're up four and two.
It's tough too though.
Like it's just what are you going to do?
It's yeah, no, but it's just it, you know, you just hope that if you are betting the
Kraken that he didn't just empty the tank against Colorado.
Yeah, and like especially because the other one who's the guy in the other net, right?
Like Anjur, he probably just played his worst game of the series already.
Yeah.
And but Seattle's generating some really good chances too.
I feel you agree though, I think like based off what we're seeing from the start of game
one, kind of my beliefs on the two teams, it's never going to be fun backing your bow
versus adding to your, but my thoughts are chances are that Seattle will be the side
holding more value in game two.
Yeah.
And I actually think that should Dallas win this game one, the Kraken are still live.
Like this is sort of like the Panthers in game one and sort of like, you know, Seattle
in game two.
In round one too, I should say like, I just don't see these teams getting completely
outclassed.
Like they'll just hang around.
So I, yeah, I'm starting to to really come around at Seattle here in the series, which
I didn't think I was going to do.
And I know it's just one game, but we're only going to have the max seven to judge off
of.
So yeah, and like to be fair, that's not like you're reaching to judge this one game.
They played pretty well.
Yeah, it's Colorado.
Yeah, it's a great season.
Yeah.
And that's the thing back half of the season, the Kraken were unreal.
I mean, really, they just had that little lull in the middle and otherwise they had pretty
damn good team play throughout and really respectable, like looked good, pretty solid
analytics.
I think the only thing was that you were worried about the goal tending and that's still a fair
concern, but I, yeah, I think, you know, it's easy to make the case for the Kraken as
an underdog right now.
All right.
That does it for this episode of line change.
We will be back together Thursday night.
The schedules get weird.
Like the Leafs and Panthers are getting like a couple extra days off because of whatever.
And, but we'll, we'll be back on Thursday night to preview as much as we can Friday and into
the weekend and set you up with all your bets then.
But until then, I'm Michael Eboe.
He's like Martin, we will see you in a couple of days.
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