NHL Best Bets | Stanley Cup Finals Game 5 Betting Preview
Nobody wins, let's everybody win.
This is your climb.
Purin' this game.
I'm going crazy, I'm going crazy, buck, buck, buck.
That is impossible, goal.
These guys aren't good, scary, good.
And this crowd is going for the bananas.
As they say, a hockey, let's do that hockey.
Hello, everyone.
Welcome back to Line Change, the NHL Benning Podcast
from the Action Network.
My name's Michael Leebuff.
Joining me, as always, is my friend and colleague, Nick Martin
and Nick.
We've got the Stanley Cup in the building in Vegas on Tuesday night
for Game 5.
We're going to take a look at how we're betting.
What could be the last NHL game for six months?
And of course, we'll be using the odds from our sponsors,
Ben MGM.
Thank you once again for sponsoring Line Change.
Vegas minus 175 to win Game 5.
Florida plus 145 over under six.
This is a major adjustment from what we saw in Game 2.
The last game, these two teams played in Vegas.
Florida was around, excuse me, Vegas was around like minus 130,
minus 135.
Maybe there was a minus 140 out there.
But the most books had them in that minus 130, minus 135 range.
Now there's a 40 cent uptick.
I think the way to make sense of it is a couple things.
First of all, Matthew could chuck his clearly hurt.
And that's a pretty big deal for Florida.
They barely played towards the end of Game 4.
They saved him for the last few minutes.
It didn't seem like he could pass or shoot with any sort of gusto.
His shoulders clearly hurt.
From the hit by Keegan Kolasar in Game 3.
The second reason Vegas has been better.
The better team for the majority of the series.
So that's pretty simple.
And the last reason is.
I think everybody, the momentum of the series,
the fact that this is a clinching game.
All that stuff kind of gets baked into a line.
So it's almost like a clinching tax.
I think the adjustments probably a little too much.
I don't mind a bit of Florida here plus 145.
Yeah, I think it's about right, to be honest.
It is a big adjustment.
I posted the series number saying prior to Game 4.
And it was plus 250.
And in my right up, I said that I thought this was a rare time
where it could end up holding value because of the fact that.
Vegas could end up being a bigger favor than I think they're expecting.
If they had a solid game for, which was the case.
And that shows that like I was expecting to maybe be like minus 145.
So I agree with you.
I think it's Florida or nothing.
But to me, Vegas is the better team.
They've looked a better team in this series.
They're the better team this playoffs.
Like I just think the magic's kind of run out for the Panthers.
I'm not overly interested in betting any team.
Like I had a number like this though when we know the likelihood.
It's probably still a close game.
Like chances are if you wait, you could still end up with a better number on Vegas.
And that maybe that's the way to do it.
Like even the in-play lines once they take away the in-play juice,
it would still be a smaller number if it's tied after two periods.
So that does is a comment on like how big of a favorite they really are here.
I think that, you know, there's it's hard for me to see an angle either way.
I would lean towards Florida too, but seems kind of sharp.
The one angle that I'm interested in.
And I think what I would say is my top ranked play again.
I like Aiden Hill to come under his saves prop again.
We won this one by the hook in game four,
but it just seems to me like a lot of this is going into first off game one of the series.
I think those tend to be higher than theirs.
I think that's been kind of consistent a lot of cup finals.
And that was the one game where Florida really had a high total of shots.
And then the fact that they had like so many shots on go all year.
I wonder if that's still being baked into the numbers here a bit.
So I think 28.5 is just a touch too high where I'm expecting kind of like a lower event game.
Like we know Vegas isn't going to come out probably and make too many mistakes in the spot.
I think they're just going to want to make sure they give it an honest effort.
Just play really good lockdown kind of game.
You know, I think that's kind of the angle to look for here.
So for me, I think that number is probably just a little too high.
And the other thing that I think is important to note is with with these hailsaves coming in under.
All series long Vegas has spent the majority of the time playing out in front.
So even in like hurting game scripts, these this place still going under.
So I think that's a good note here where like unless they get way up.
I don't really think it's going to matter.
Like if it's too one the way it's been like for so much of the last two games,
then we're still ideally fine.
So I think this is still it's one save lower than it was last game.
But I still am going to play it.
I think it's a solid look.
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I like a couple goalscores here.
We had Tim Callinowski on after game two, and he was talking about kind of,
you know, going out with a bang if these are going to be our last few bets for the NHL season.
So I'm going to lean it to that a little bit.
I have three guys circled.
You can play them individually if you want, if you can ignore them, if you want,
or you can wrap them in a in a parlay around Robin, maybe with Florida or Vegas,
or however, but the three I like are Alex Petrangelo.
He's plus 700 to score.
That's the highest number I saw out there.
He is leading Vegas in time and ice.
He's up there in shots, shot attempts.
He's got no points.
We know Vegas is generating a ton of chances from their defense, three defense.
We have goals already in the series.
I think Petrangelo has been great.
You know he's going to be a horse in this and be heavily leaned on.
He gets some power play time as well.
So I like Petro at 7-1.
Another night I like is Michael Amadio, who is near the top for Vegas in terms of high danger chances
in the series at 5-5.
He's playing with Riley Smith and William Carlson.
That's a great spot for a player like him, because you know that bookmakers aren't really going to be too fussed
about Michael Amadio's any time goal score odds.
So they'll drift a little bit and he's four plus four 50.
And the other one, a Panther I like is Anton Lundell.
He's in that five to one range.
I think he's arguably been their best player in the series.
He's him and Montor have been fantastic.
Lundell should see an uptick in time and opportunity with Kachukhurt.
He's getting shots off.
I think he's got six through four.
He's not like a huge volume shooter as is, but he's had a couple of good games.
He's generated chances and with Kachukh at the very least playing a limited role.
I think Lundell can kind of take advantage of that, or you can take advantage of that by bending a player like Lundell.
I think if you wrap the three of them together, their true odds are around 300 to one.
Of course, you know, with these same game parlays, usually the book slash numbers like that a little bit, but that's what I'm going to be doing.
I'm going to wrap those three together.
Maybe I'll find like a tennis tennis play I like in Stuttgart or something to complete the round rob.
And I know Nick Curios is back.
And he's a big favorite against Ebing Wu.
This is his first tennis match in eight months for Curios.
And he's like minus 475.
I know he's great on grass, but that seems a little rich.
Maybe maybe it'll be a Curios in there for a fun little round robin.
I love it.
Yeah, you got to bet into that Curios volatility.
And yeah, the Kachukhurt.
It's definitely far from just speculation like his shoulder for sure came out.
And the books literally have his player props down right now.
Because I was thinking if you wanted to try and see if you could use one of the sites where you can do an all unders look.
That could be an option.
And he's obviously so tough.
And he found a way to get four shots on goal last game, which actually blew up my the same game parlay piece I rate with action.
It lost by one Kachukhurt.
So it's not like that's just a lock to have.
But it does just seem like he's really fighting through it.
And now they're not doing that get it at five on five.
And yeah, I like when they'll even great.
They call him any bark off on the team apparently and can definitely see why.
So I like that.
Yeah, I'll probably looking for some in play in play bets, considering this is the last game of the year.
And you know, maybe something similar to when the caps pulled it off in Vegas and game five.
Where they, you know, went down and just had to find a way.
So I'll give a shout out to my voice because that was like my favorite hockey game ever.
Yeah, that was I remember watching that game in the action network offices in New York and Midtown stayed late and watched it.
Didn't know you at the time, but.
And I didn't know that Barry Trots will end up becoming an Islander coach just a few weeks later either.
So special moment for everybody involved.
All right. Well, I guess that will wrap it here.
We'll see you again on the other side of this game at some point, whether it's to kind of wrap up the season.
Look ahead to the next season, the early odds talk about the NHL draft odds as well.
Or maybe Florida wins and we're talking about a game six and sunrise.
Either way for Dick Martin, Michael Leebuff. Thank you to our sponsors, but MGM.
Thank you for listening to line change.
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