NHL Best Bets | Thur Feb 23

Nobody wins. Let's everybody win. This is your climb. We're in this game. I'm going to break the puck back half. Let it possible go. These guys aren't good. Staring good. This crowd is going for the bananas. As they say in hockey, let's do that hockey. Hello everyone, welcome back to Line Change. I'm Andy Cho betting podcast from the action I work presented to you by BetMGM. My name is Michael Liba. Joining me just a moment is action network NHL analyst Nick Martin. Nick, we always start with our favorite underdogs, and these are famous last words. But if you're someone who likes the pain that can only be found in an underdog round robin on our soccer podcast, Wonder goal at the end of every show we give out our three leg underdog round robin. We've hit one. It was 201 to one. I think that Thursday night in Wonder goals honor kind of feels like a good underdog round robin night. I'll kind of touch on the legs that I like throughout, but I'll pick out my favorite one for right now. That's the Seattle Kraken. This is a twofold play one. The Kraken are good team. We know that. We know that the goal tending is a bit of a mess. That's not good for any team, but they do have the score of four lines that they can roll. They have a deep D-core. They've already beaten the Bruins. They were the first team to beat them in regulation at home. But this is also a weird scheduling spot for Boston. They're traveling out to Seattle. Here's what they dealt with since the also break. They came back from the also break. They lost the capitals at home. Then they traveled to Dallas and Nashville. Then they came home for two games against the Islanders and Senators. They were really good in those four games. They beat Dallas, Boston, Nashville, Islanders and Senators. They're riding a four game win streak here, but now they're traveling back. West, they're going across the country to Seattle. It's just a lot, I think. You're going to try to beat the Bruins. You've got to look at spots like this. Seattle is a team that I think should punch up pretty well in the spot. I like that I have my own reasons why I'd love to see Seattle win. They're obviously going to make it a tough game. They've got the four lines rolling and they're going to make it tough for any team coming into there. I can see the logic with that. As I continue to say, we're seeing Boston play outside of the Nashville game and some of these games. We're seeing them play a lot closer games. Obviously that helps the argument for taking on the crack and a long number. It should get longer. I'd presume. I think the average take is going to be the price is a little close. Yeah, and the Bruins looked like World beaters against the Islanders. That game was three nothing within the first 10 minutes. It's over from then. I thought the Senators actually played a pretty decent game against Boston. I thought they played them quite well. I think that would be another one where it's probably not a two goal win on average. But at the same time at some point, it's like that's been a ton of Boston games and they have such good goal tenders. But there's been so many where I've been watching the game and getting sucked into some sort of a live play against the Bruins or whatever. And they just hang in there and give up nothing. Especially. Yes, they know what they're doing over there. Yeah, so that's me. I like to crack and as I said, it's a good round rob at night, I think, for underdog. So touch on the rest of them. Nick, what is your favorite underdog? As typically seems to happen. I have a lot less of a fun underdog, but I think it's going to be one of the best games on the slate. So for one, that makes it an exciting place to make a bet. And I think it's a solid one. So the Oilers are a slight underdog on the road in Pittsburgh. And I think that's a good time to go back to the Oilers. They came through for us with the spread cover versus Philly on Tuesday. It wasn't pretty. That was probably the Oilers worst game. I'd say, believe it or not, out of the recent ones. But I like a lot of what their lineup strengths can do to this penguins team right now. We've seen how bad the penguins are struggling with the rush and defensively. And I think it's just a good night for McDavid and Dry said on the lake to go off. Ideally, if you're someone, depending on what shop you're on, I think a parlay of over five and a half goals and the Oilers to win is another really reasonable look for a longer number. So I just think we should see the Oilers be able to generate a lot in this spot. I think McDavid gets up for these Crosby games. And yeah, it should be a really good game too. I'll say with my take on Oilers and penguins for the end of the show, Top Shelf Bets portion. With that, we'll look at the big board. Really interesting slate on Thursday night. We've got 10 games and most of that, like we're so accustomed now to seeing huge favorites in the NHL. I wrote about this on Action Network and this slate, there's only a few of them, which is kind of a refreshing. Slade of hockey games here. The Los Angeles Kings are on the road taking on the New Jersey Devils, a rematch of the 2012 Stanley Cup. Kings are plus one 25. The devil's minus one 45. The over under six and a half. I think that this price looks good. Los Angeles will be playing on a back to back here. They got the Islanders at UBS arena on Friday night and the Devils lose to Montreal ugly effort. I thought and we've talked about how it looked a little bit like they were stabilizing and shame on me for finally taking my foot off the pedal of fading the devils and waiting for them to have a result like this. When it came to the habs and missing out on that price, but I just think that with the way Los Angeles plays a five on five, this number looks just about right. I actually lean devils here. I think we'll see them control a lot more of the game, but overall, not one that I was looking to make a pick on and and the lines look pretty sharp. How about these Detroit red wings. They continue to get results and are really. You know, at least making an interesting for red wings fans who have not seen them make the playoffs and quite some time they went on that was at 25 games, 25 season playoff streak or whatever they did. And now they haven't made in quite some time and. Yeah, Detroit is rolling and they roll into Madison Square Garden to take on the Rangers who are also rolling prices, Rangers, excuse me, the red wings are home here. The Rangers will be at Little Caesar's arena. The red Rangers are minus one sixty five on the road. The red wings plus one forty the over under six another one where it's just line looks sharp. I'm not interested either side. Yeah, I wasn't too into this one Detroit. There's kind of almost the same game I saw them play in person. Versus the flames that they had last night versus the caps. They just didn't make any mistakes. They were the better side. I thought it was pretty clear is funny. I was kind of saying that I thought Detroit might almost be a bit of a suckers bat yesterday. And they just did all the right things. They made the game tough. The caps couldn't generate anything. So I think it's it looks like a fair price. I mean, it's it's it's tough for me to accept where the red wings are at. I still don't fully buy that they're this good, but they're definitely doing a lot of things. Well, the Le Lons got them their defensive games cleaned up a lot compared to what we saw in December. So yeah, yeah, I think the number looks pretty sharp here. They're not generating a ton, but they're training that off by not giving up a ton. And so like the Isis, if you look at like underlying metrics like expected goals or high danger chances it's still. They're still in the red, but at the same time they're not giving up all that many chances against and they're just banking on themselves to to win these kind of low event games and to this point it's working. So. Yeah, it's tough on and we were so down on the team and they've now rattled off a bunch of wins on the spin outside of that Seattle law. So I tip your cap to the lawn and the red wings to tip your cap to the lawn for just like keeping them invested in the season. Syncing to one South pretty quickly. Let's talk about the Sabres there, plus 195 in Tampa, lightning or minus 230 over under seven. Sabers coming off a bad performance at home against the Leafs. The Sabres are one of the teams I kind of like to throw in the round robin I want to get a big price in there. It's a tough schedule spot though they just went out West and they come home get pasted another flying south. It's a little tough but I just think the upside with Buffalo is always going to be high enough that when you're getting two to one on them. They're always worth consideration so. The Sabres are the second team along with the Kraken in my little underdog round robin. Yeah I'm scared off the Sabres here. I thought the over there was a few places that opened at six and a half. I still think seven had a really long numbers playable. Because Buffalo's defensive play right now just is not good and their goal tending is a disaster and that's enough to scare me off here versus Tampa. I think this is a good spot for both to come through and score quite a few so I like what it'll be the square play with the over and probably makes in a few player props on this game as well. And one where it looks like we should see some action. Yeah and the Sabres have a huge game with the Panthers on Friday night as well so it's like I said tough schedule spot but of the kind of bigger priced underdogs the Sabres were the one. I like the most to chuck in the round robin. Let's move to game between the Minnesota wild minus 180 and the Columbus Blue Jackets were plus 155 the over under here is six. We talked about Columbus a little bit being a team that will generally play you hard of late but the price here in a game where the wild are desperate and trying my best not to get caught up on you know the must win narratives but the wild need to come out of this one with two points and even if Columbus is playing better they've still only got eight wins in their last 25 games so not big enough for me. Yeah I thought the one angle that I was interested in is if Gustavsson goes for Minnesota. I could be interested in seeing what the Columbus team total under two and a half is unfortunately we most most books don't have those prices out Wednesday so that's the one look I'd just be interested in seeing what the prices will be and if we get that Gustavsson confirmation. I understand they're defending super well it's the lack of an offensive punch they played really well versus the Kings and Gustavsson was was dialed which has been kind of consistent for him this season. So I think that's a really interesting look if depending on where the prices are at. Yeah you think the wild would be a team that doesn't profile too well is a big favorite they are in the red but not by much it's not like they're one of the worst teams in the spot. Because the lack of teeth offensively makes it kind of hard for them to get separation when they're laying this kind of price especially on the road. Hockey season is heating up so get in on the action with the King of Swartz books. 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This is hilarious this game I think the Vancouver Canucks are plus 105 against the St. Louis blues minus 125 the over under seven. I jotted down I think this is a fun live betting game because if a team goes down two goals here early I would just lash of live bet on on the other team because it's just going to go back and forth. It's a meaningless game neither one of these teams play defense neither one of them get goal pending but they both can score. They both have some high end offensive players. So yeah I think it's just that's how I would do it if you're if this is a game that you're going to be at or watching and I would just look to live bet. However the kind of rhythm of the game plays out because this should you know watch it be one nothing now but it feels like a game that's just going to go back and forth and we're going to see like defensive laps is all over the place. Yeah for sure there's this streak of Vancouver games going over is is getting outrageous and I actually mean Vancouver here like I still but with that said we talked last game and what how I don't think I've correctly bet a pocket game. While I said that my lean in the national game was Vancouver I didn't go there but if I had done that it would have been wrong. Yeah barely barely in a state that barely yet but I have no feel for this team it does seem like one is just destined to be a gong show like I can just see someone getting up for two in the game breaking open so I like that I feel really great could see the live betting angle. And probably a pretty good one from a player prop side of things like I could see Kyrie being pretty interesting it seems like when he gets in these good matchups where he gets some space he's still really dangerous so I think they'll be placed to be made on this game but yeah nothing nothing today. Another team I like to throw in I'll be throwing in the round robin would be the Calgary Flames there plus 135 in Vegas taking on the nights Vegas is minus 155 the over under is six and a half. Oh my goodness that's these flames man it's just like. You know the opposite it's that godfather saying you know when I thought I was out they pull me back in it's the opposite it's like when I was in like they keep pushing me back out with this team and they find a way to step all over themselves. But this in this situation it's like they're the underdog the nights are without Logan Thompson. And they're they're playing our right Vegas but they're kind of capturing. Some hype I guess let's call it in the in the media again they had a nice winning streak there then they lost an overtime to the black Hawks of you know so. Some cold water there but they've gotten points and they're back atop the Pacific Division so I feel like people are thinking the nights course corrected here. But like when you look at these two teams on paper you look at the numbers outside of just a weirdness of Calgary the poorly timed like goals that they give up that the suspect will tending from Markstrom. If you just look at it the two rosters it's really not much of a difference in fact you could probably say the Calgary's is the stronger one or should be. So yeah I'll be I'll be on the flames here in the round Robin and we'll see how they blow it. Yeah the flames keep sucking me in as well and I agree I think that is still going to be the right side in this game like I expected to be close the scary thing is like. So it looks like but I was going to go today I would rather I've been more interested if the Dar started that game would have really had me hype because it just seems like Markstrom is so prone to giving up these soft goals at the worst times I know that's kind of like. You know just a bit of just a it just seems like he's can't make it save when it matters every game they find a weighty to whatever team they're playing hangs around but that's where I like this as an underdog. And it's tough because it's like it's it continues to be hard to accept that Markstrom is this bad and I know you don't just want entirely pin it on that but it does seem like recently when you really look at it. The rest of the process has been pretty good more or less the Detroit game was pretty hideous but overall I still think this is a better team than their record but. So yeah I think if the number gets a lot better I'll definitely be on the flames here because it might be viewed as kind of a smash spot for Vegas. But if not I definitely have not one right get behind Vegas. And the other thing I know a lot of people have probably heard we both pitched the the Oilers to win the division. I think if you have big positions on that you definitely would want to keep that in mind when you're considering the spot where if Calgary wins and rag that helps you so much already. It's true. Oh man the flames yeah they're in there in Arizona once they night so it could be one of those back to backs where hopefully they can get it could go one of two ways right they'll either blow it and lose Arizona you know yotes at home we know that there's that magic at Molot Arena and then come out of this come into this one like storming mad or great and they go with a that's exactly what happened they lost that home to Chicago and what was one of the worst games here and then they played one of their best games here the next night versus Seattle when it's 5 to in Seattle and what was a pretty huge game for them at the time. All right I will finish this section with another team that I like in the round robin so so far we've got the sabers we've got the crack and we've got the flames and we will also throw the San Jose Sharks there plus 120 hosting Nashville the predators minus 140 the over under here is six James rhymer will start for San Jose I mean the goaltending has been bad for San Jose throughout the year but you trust rhymer more than capo cackenin at this point and to say that like it's it's a decent gap is funny because rhymer has been very good but the players are basically done they've had a rough week I know that they ended up getting the two points against Calgary but that ended up coming in a shootout they've they've really done everything they could to play themselves out of out of the race in the in the West there seven points a drift of a playoff spot that the GM has kind of come out and said that they're definitely not going to be buying at the deadline and they're dealing with an injury now couple injuries key ones to their top six so San Jose they they are also dealing with the team of Myers been day to day so that's a big one but there's a lot of players on the shark team that know that this is probably the end of their sharks tenure coming these next few days. I think that you're going to get a good motivated effort from from San Jose in a winnable game and we've talked and nauseam about how the sharks generally push play in the right direction there underlying metrics are much much better better than you'd expect from a team this far down the standing so yeah the sharks would be the final piece of this round robin disaster. Okay I like it and I had a play that I really like on this game. I like the under with there's just so many things working in this favor I like the way the actual sets up without Johansson and force rewind up that leaves him with a pretty serious lack of offensive punch and we've seen the sharks be pretty respectable when they get acceptable goal tending which hopefully they will from rhymer. I think that Santa Jose can can avoid allowing four or five and then with that said the sharks have very little offensive punch, especially with my route they're going to be ideally going against sorrows so I think it's it's sorrows versus rhymer in this matchup I like a play on the under. With that we move on to top shelf bets our favorite bets for Thursday February 23. Top shelf where mama lines are cooking. I'll keep this one short because we already talked you already made a point about this match for this game at the top the Oilers are minus 105 in Pittsburgh I like Edmonton to minus 105 I think that we could see Edmonton close as a slight favorite on the road the penguins are a mess defensively if you look over the last 25 games so it's not even that small of a sample anymore they they're one of the worst teams that preventing quality scoring chances over the last 10 they're fourth worst in the league they're worse than you know some some pretty bad teams like the other way but if you're going to trade chances with any team in the NHL probably the one of the bottom of that list would be the Edmonton Oilers you don't want to give up breakaways all night to kind of like David and Lee and dry side. So yeah I think this is a good match spot with the Oilers I know they're coming east they're traveling east so the travel spots not great this is a must win game for the penguins to stop the bleeding after losing three in a row to the Islanders twice in the Devils and they had that you know those two islander games were games that they gave away leads late but it's just a terrible matchup spot and the gold tending yet Tristan Jari is back but could take him a little while to shake off the rust he did not look comfortable against the Islanders so I think this is a great great spot for Edmonton to get two points in the room. Yeah I like it. Yeah you spoke about it so we can just flip to yours for sure you can talk a little bit about your beloved beleaguered watching the Capitals. Yes so I like the Ducks team total to go under two and a half pending the number I'll read just quickly but again that sharks under is my other look and it'll kind of come down to what prices you can get tomorrow that on what I would suggest but what I've seen from the Capitals right now. I don't think they're going to completely nail it in this spot sounds like they're gonna have a vegkin back hopefully that's a bit of a boost to the kind of morale around the team. I don't think the scoring punches there for me to want to take on this price even against Anaheim I know Anaheim can make anyone look competent offensively. The guy who perhaps can do in this spot is play a lockdown tight defensive game, which makes me lean towards thinking keeping Anaheim under two and a half goals is a really sharp play. I still think campers looked pretty good they've been pretty terrible in front of him the last bit. And this is just kind of all about the narrative and the spot for me and who they're playing I still think they're going to be a competent defensive team. That's kind of going to be this stressed right now where the offensive punch just looks not good. So yeah I think that's something I like from the caps here in a spot where they hopefully will bounce back but I'd rather bet on them keeping the game close and hanging around and bet on them winning at this number. All right that does it for another episode of line change off the top are underdogs Oilers and cracking best bets. I like the Oilers on the money line. You will take either the Ducks team total under or the Sharks preds under depending on what prices better. Be sure to check those out in the action network app you can follow us at line change podcast you can follow Nick and myself as well in the app. And we'll see you again next week and a reminder that we will actually do a action trade deadline kind of mid season hockey preview on the action network podcast feed so you can look up for that sometime early next week as well. Until then that's a look with all your bets. If you're a good action network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem help is available 24 7 at 1 800 gambler.