Nobody wins. Let's everybody win.
This is your climb.
We're in this game.
I'm going to break the puck back.
Let it possible go.
These guys aren't good.
Staring good.
This crowd is going by the bananas.
As they say in hockey, let's do that hockey.
Hello everyone and welcome back to line change
the NHL betting podcast from the action network presented to you by BetMGM.
My name is Michael E. Buff joining me as always is my friend and co-host Nick Martin.
Nick, we will start as always with an underdog.
And I'm going with the biggest dog as of right now on the big board.
The Buffalo Sabres are plus 245 in Boston hosting the Bruins who won eight in a row.
The Bruins are coming back from a road trip, perfect road trip obviously out West.
This is a tough spot.
And it's just like, this is a great sell high spot I think at a huge number on the Bruins.
The Sabres just lost to the Blue Jackets in regulation that really dense their playoff
hopes when you look ahead at the rest of their schedule.
So they're going to need to find ways to win.
They will be without Raspous D'Alene.
They'll be without Alex talk.
That's not good.
But the Bruins just have not been playing all that well despite getting the wins.
So the Sabres team, I said it on our last episode when I was talking about how I liked
the Blue Jackets as a price against the Sabres.
They can score with anybody the Sabres can, but they can also give up goals with anybody.
So I'm hoping that we see the former and not the latter here at plus 245.
Yeah, I like it.
I can't believe that Boston won that game.
You'd think that they probably want to follow up with a better performance despite winning
because of how bad that got.
In another note, maybe they go to Swam in here.
I would be thinking let's try and manage Almark's minutes.
And obviously he just put in some work versus Calgary.
So I think that's reasonable.
And for my underdog, I'm not going to go with a side, but I for once think I should
have a longer number than you.
And if it's not, I wouldn't play this play.
So we're being a little presumptive here.
But I like Dennis Gurianov of the Montreal Canadiens now to score goal.
He's got a lot of goal scoring upside.
And I think it showed versus San Jose despite not scoring.
He had some good rushes.
He had a good one time off the side of the net that we've seen him finish if he's going
to set up there on the power play.
That's going to be really dangerous.
Hopefully this should remain north of plus 400.
It was plus 550 for yesterday's game and he didn't score.
So I'm hoping odds makers won't be entirely onto this because it was pretty clear that
he was maybe one of the most dangerous players on the ice.
He had 0.8 expected goals.
He had eight shot attempts, six on net.
He looked really good alongside Nick Suzuki.
So a matchup with Los Angeles isn't the dream because LA is so good defensively and they're
going to get tough matchups all night, the Montreal had won.
But with that said, I'll take the risks.
They still have middle and goal tending in LA.
So the chances of goal production are very reasonable.
So I think getting a really long number on Gurianov here is excellent.
And we've seen, I would have been very wrong because I never would have thought his career
went this badly in Dallas because he has a really good skill set.
Like his one timer is excellent.
He can skate.
I don't know how things got as bad as they did.
And I think a fresh start.
He's a player that I'd be pumped to have right now if that was my drill because you
don't know what you're going to get out of him in high upside kind of way.
Yeah, I'm with you.
I like that.
We've been seeing a lot of these narrative based kind of anytime goal scores like the one you
mentioned at the next year, the other day coming through.
Patrick came from the week before.
It stuff doesn't matter because it comes down to opportunity and getting shots on goal.
So this is, it looks like another one that will fit that bill.
All right, let's look at this slate.
It's a good one.
Ten games and only one of them features.
Two teams that aren't fighting for something.
That is the blues and sharks later on on Thursday night for March 2nd.
We'll start with the big one between the penguins plus 145 in Tampa.
It gets the lightning minus 170 over under six and a half.
Tampa's struggling a little bit.
This is one of those wobbles.
They do it all the time.
Pittsburgh starting to trend up in the right direction again with a couple of wins, including
Tuesday night comeback in the third period against the predators.
These two teams just met last weekend.
The bolts lost seven three.
So it's like a little bit of a, you know, a comeback spot.
I would say it's a lean towards Pittsburgh or nothing just with the way Tampa's trending
and the number, but probably be passing here.
Yeah, I'm going to pass.
I think this is kind of the epitome of what we said about the Panthers Tampa game where
it's like, it just feels like hard to take a side.
Like Tampa's been showing some real defensive flaws, which scares me off them enough.
But with that said, like, do we want to count on them kind of staying true to that trend
or maybe turning it around and playing a better defensive contest?
We know they're better than they've been playing recently, but it's also a question,
how good are they going to be right now?
So yeah, it just doesn't look like one right now that I want to get involved with and especially
with the bolts as a fairly large favorite.
The Seattle Kraken and Detroit Red Wings.
This one's a pick in Detroit.
The over under six and a half Detroit just got snuffed by the Ottawa senators back to
back nights in Ottawa, allowed Ottawa put themselves back in the playoff mix while really
denting Detroit's playoff hopes as their schedule gets tougher from that point on as
well.
Seattle is this will be the front end of a back to back for them.
It's just, you know, with the gold tending that Seattle throws out there every night,
barring a trade between now and 7 p.m. Eastern time or whatever this one's kicking off.
It's not one I really want to think about.
And I'll just be rooting for the Kraken to beat the wings to help my Islanders out.
Yeah, that's exactly all I see it.
I need the Kraken myself for some futures purposes.
And I like pick them just looked bang on to me here.
I didn't really go into the number twice.
It just seemed seemed sharp.
So I didn't really have any thoughts there.
The Dallas Stars and Chicago Blackhawks will meet again on Thursday.
Dallas is minus 245 in Chicago.
The Hawks plus 205 the over under six the first game for Chicago in Chicago since the
Patrick Kane trade was official.
They've obviously been playing out without him for a bit here.
This was one that is a little complicated because I think you could see this the Blackhawks holding
a lot of guys out the night before the deadline.
They still have some few players like Don't Me Nothing to see you who they'll look to trade
and maybe some even depth players.
So this number might get even bigger on Dallas.
I'm going to be passing.
Yeah, I'm going to pass as well.
I think I'm not touching the Hawks because even the guys who just went out make them a
lot worse.
And that showed versus Arizona, I thought.
So I don't want to touch really either of these teams right now.
So I think it's a good spot to pass.
The Leafs and Flames are a pick them in Calgary to over under six and a half Toronto second
night of a back to back for this one.
I think it's Calgary.
Let me say that again because without laughing because it's hard not to but I think it's
Calgary or nothing like they just keep doing the same thing over and over again and keep
sucking me in.
And then I said, Oh man, we had the conversation about a betting blacklist at Calgary.
We're like, we got to put them on.
But they're getting the Leafs after a game in Edmonton.
They've been playing so well five and five tilting the ice in the right direction and
the goaltending matchup shouldn't be terrible.
Yes, I agree on everything you just said.
And like at some point it's going to get better.
I thought the Boston game was really interesting because they had some really good chances
coming through the box.
They had some really good looks.
They had breakaways with their best players.
That sort of thing like I thought it was more than just the flames shot quality being overrated
in that game.
That was the largest shot differential Boston's hat in their entire history.
And I know Calgary was catching them in a good spot, but it's like that I thought was
clearly just bad luck and every little thing like I think even the whole narrative of the
game swings if codaries over time shot off the knob goes in.
If it's an inch over, which and then we're probably talking about them not choking them
finding way, I actually thought that they even played better in three on three than usual
until the full on breakdown.
So it feels like they're still knocking on the door.
I don't know.
I might end up betting it.
We'll see.
Or maybe I could see the flames in the over being interesting too because I think in this
spot, obviously Toronto is quite good defensively, but going to have backup in and you know,
Calgary's impregnate and we saw they showed a Boston.
It's not a fun matchup on a back-to-back spot when they're going to put pressure all
over the ice like that.
So I agree.
I think it's flames are nothing, but I wouldn't be shocked to see Toronto just score like
four power wiggles and five shots and just, you know, find a way or something.
But yeah.
It's tough.
And I know some of this just comes down to that fact that Calgary was pretty trendy,
Stanley Cup bet, but the fact that they're still hanging out at like 25 to one despite
being six, five or six points of drift of a playoff spot.
Everyone tells you how much money did come in on Calgary before the season that they
aren't at a bigger number.
And two, it's a statement to the ceiling of the team in three, how wide open the West
is, but yeah, it'd be fun if they were to adjust it to like 40 to one, right?
Probably make a case, but the problem is now when you have to factor in that there's
like only a whatever 60% chance that they get in the postseason at this point, maybe
arguably less than that depending on where you're at on thinking of some of the teams
that might that they'd have to surpass.
Yep.
Yeah.
So I think that that kind of makes the case that there's not much of a not much value
there.
No, not at all.
It would have to get to like double the price, which it won't.
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The Minnesota Wild Vancouver Canucks.
Wild minus 165 in Vancouver plus 140, the Overunder 6U.
For once quoted as someone saying that you've never gotten a Rick Tockett coach-connects
game right, but you got something here.
I think it's a decent spot to bet the Canucks, especially if you could get confirmation.
I don't know if they'll want to do it yet, but maybe Mark Andrei Flurry game.
And I think the Wild have quietly become, I was so pumped on betting a tie in the end
with them, and you actually kind of pushed the idea to me versus you're on.
They kind of remind me of the Islanders west a little bit right now, getting this disc
goaltending from Goose Doughson, not to diss your guys, but their offense just looks so
stale and they're just kind of trying to hang around.
And I think it could be a spot where the amount of guys moving the needle offensively
for Vancouver is, you know, it's greater.
Demco looked respectable versus Dallas, I thought, in that win.
So for me, it's kind of Vancouver nothing.
I think Vancouver is pretty playable here, especially if you can get the numbers.
There's Pulse 1.40s today.
If you can get that with confirmation that Flurry's in net, I think that's a pretty good
play.
Yeah, I'll be on the Canucks too.
I think it comes, it also just comes down to the way Minnesota is trying to play right
now.
It's just the margins for error so thin.
And when you switch out Gustafson, who has been awesome for Flurry, just those margins
get obliterated.
So yeah, Canucks for me, real quick, Blues plus 100 against the Sharks, minus 120 in
home, over under 6.5.
No, I'm just going to stay away from this one.
Yes, I don't think there's a lot here.
I thought it was interesting.
Zetterlin and Jonson had pretty good games last night for the Sharks.
The return for Meyer that was a little disappointing.
I think if you're a DFS guy, they maybe have some merit here playing the Blues and I think
potentially you could consider some of their props or single game parlays stacking that
line of some sort, I think are fun options.
But other than that, I didn't really see much on this game.
All right, with that, we move on to Top Shelf Bets, our favorite bets.
Thursday, March 2nd.
Top Shelf where Mama lines the cookies.
You got to do it.
Ottawa Senators.
They're plus 150 playing the Rangers in New York.
The Rangers are minus 175, the over under 6.5.
A couple of different angles here.
One, the Rangers aren't getting great gold tending right now, which really does change
the makeup of this team, right?
If you're not, think about what they do, how they play.
The puck just goes back and forth and back and forth and sure, they have more skill than
most teams so they can bet on themselves to bury the chances that they create.
But if they're giving them up and they're not getting superb gold tending from Igor
Shastirkin or Yara Halak, that's a problem.
Two, the Senators, not only did they just win two in a row against Detroit Monday and
Tuesday and really throw some juice back into their season, they're 10, three and one in
their last time with a plus 20 gold differential.
Sure, a lot of that comes from the two shellacings of Detroit.
But it does kind of speak to a point we've been mentioning throughout the season on the
Senators that they've been playing much better than their record implies.
They have more talent than their record implies and they're in this thing, man.
As a young team, they just wanted to be applying important games at this point in the season.
And here is one.
Lastly, the Rangers are getting Patrick Kane.
This is his debut.
I'm expecting that we'll see some casual money coming in on the Rangers.
The excitement, the hype, and it's going to take some time for them to adjust to a player like that.
This is not a plug and play thing when you get someone like your man Lars Eller.
You kind of know what this guy's going to do for the Colorado Avalanche and have some
sense of, yeah, he's just like a role-playing role-player hockey player.
Whereas Patrick Kane outside of Panerran who hasn't played with him in years, it's going
to take some time.
So I think there's just a lot of market factors here that's going to inflict a lot of money.
A lot of market factors here that's going to inflate the Senators.
And this price right now plus one 50 is great.
I would play them a little bit further down than this plus one 40 or so.
So give me Ottawa.
Yeah, I like the merit with this.
And I'm going to take a shot on Philly tonight versus New York.
And I think one of the points that you did not mention that's really relevant because
he's been so good is Miller's going to be suspended again for that or being suspended for the game.
So that obviously hurts the back end a lot.
He's been excellent.
Lindgren, it seems like he's probably going to play one of the games that are probably
played by tomorrow, but who knows?
If he's out to that shakes up both their top two deep hearings that has been a massive
strength.
Like I actually think that's more being swept under the rug compared to their top six.
I don't think that with Kane in the mix, their top six is better than, I think there's
four teams in the East that I'm not just being a hater saying have like a better top six.
So it seems like the hype is going a little wild in that regard, like, especially if you want to talk like that.
That second line is going to be really, really potent offensively.
And I know I made this point, but you're talking about a lot of guys who are gettable
defensively.
And if they're going to match up with some of these other opponents, I think that's
potentially a concern.
So yeah, it seems like one where maybe the hype is running off the rails, especially if people are in the
factoring in like if their whole top four is different, which is like in one of their greatest
strengths, that's really notable.
So I like that.
And we've talked about how the sends have more upside than they've shown.
I think the greatest area where it was like surprising how much they struggled was scoring at five on five.
And we've seen them trend up a lot in that aspect, which really isn't that surprising because they have more talent than they've shown all year at five on five to score.
So it doesn't surprise me that they're stabilizing to some extent on that.
And then they also have one of league's best power play units.
So yeah, I like it.
I think it's a decent shot on the sends, especially if, like you say, it seems like the Rangers hype is running absolutely wild right now.
So hopefully that probably gets a little crazy.
And then we'll wrap up with your best bet, which comes to us in Nashville.
They're plus one forty against the Florida Panthers, the cats are minus one sixty five and the over under is six and a half.
Yes, we're going to go back with it.
I thought we got is a little lucky almost to get the regulation win for Nashville, but that's kind of like the best I see them playing right now.
And I really like where Florida is at.
They're looking extremely dangerous.
I know they actually just took a tough loss in Nashville a couple weeks ago, but I don't think that's going to be the way this game goes on average.
So I think it's really good match match up for Florida cause the cause a lot of problems for Nashville's back end.
And I like Tyson Barry, but I think his strengths are going to be minimized on Nashville and then the loss of at home starts to hurt.
So I think it's a good shot and I like the Panthers to win in regulation in this spot.
One of the surprise if Barry gets scratched for this is for trade related reasons.
Maybe they try to flip them.
We'll see.
I'll be not.
I don't have a play in that game.
I'm rooting for the preds.
I will just wrap up with this real quick.
Penguins risk lightning senators, risk Rangers, predators versus Panthers, Kraken versus Red Wings, Sabers, risk Bruins.
That's five games in the Eastern Conference wild card race.
There are seven teams if you want to throw the capitals in there as well, which I think you should just by merit of the points.
Five out of the seven teams are in action and none of them are playing each other.
So, you know what before you wrap to I'm going to slide in since I've just realized that we're not going to get people before.
Friday.
Oh, yeah.
I think it's a gary on a misses tomorrow night.
You play him the next night versus Anaheim.
This has happened so many times this year.
Jack Quinn to me on Sunday.
Where I, you know, a guy gets a new role a guy like.
And I, you know, we just, it ends up being a podcast a day late or something like that or an article that's the game before a guy has his big breakthrough at like five to one to score goal.
So, I think if Gary on up misses, I like the way they looked at even strength.
I think even if they have a bit of a bad night together versus LA, he's going to stay with Suzuki.
And then I think you just go right back on the next night plan versus the ducks in what is the dream match up for everyone.
Like it.
I'll be back on the blue jackets on Friday.
I think they're hosting the crack in.
So, yeah, definitely going to be on the jackets there.
Yeah, and that I mean, it's a great night of hockey Thursday.
I think that's the NHL schedule finally gets it right for Dick Martin.
Michael Lee Buff, another episode of line changer the books.
We'll see you next week.
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