Nobody wins. Let's everybody win.
This is your climb.
We're in this game.
I'm going to break the puck back half.
Let it possible go.
These guys aren't good.
Staring good.
This crowd is going for the bananas.
As they say in hockey, let's do that hockey.
Hello everyone and welcome back to Line Change.
The NHL betting podcast from the Action Network presented to you by BetMGM.
My name is Michael Lee Buffen.
Still here, despite watching the Columbus Blue Jackets are underdog the other night.
For nothing lead to the Pittsburgh Penguins.
In what was a, you know, it was part of the course for how things are going for us lately.
But Nick, we're going to turn things around.
We're going to turn things around.
We're going to start on Thursday.
This is the episode for March 9th.
Pretty loaded slate.
And we're going to go right back to the well with an underdog to start as usual.
This one is not as depressing, let's say, as the blue jackets.
But I'll go first.
I like the Edmonton Oilers.
They are plus 155 in Boston taking on the Bruins who have won 100 games in a row.
They're 10, 10, oh and oh, and they're less than the Bruins are.
And it's weird because we're not really talking about it.
Usually when a team wins 10 games in a row.
The entire NHL world has its head turned and the narratives are all over the place.
But this is kind of just what the Bruins have done all season.
They have a plus 105 gold difference differential on the season.
Plus 103 when you take away the two shootout goals.
Outrageous.
But I like Edmonton here for a couple reasons.
One, this is, this bet is completely moot.
If Jack Campbell starts, I don't expect he will.
I'm pretty sure the Oilers are going to keep going back to Stuart Skinner as they're starting
goalie down the stretch here.
It's just, he's won the job fair and square and he's been solid for them.
Two, the Oilers are playing decent defensively despite the fact that Campbell and Skinner
went through a little bit of a rough patch there too.
But despite their goals allowed per 60, which is hovering around three, their expected
goals is up there with the best teams in the league when you look since the All-Star
Break.
Only Carolina has a better expected goals against per 60 minutes of five on five in
the NHL.
And we're looking at a relatively meaningful sample size.
Now we're on a month.
It's about 15 games for most teams between like 13 to 15.
And a high danger scoring chances.
Edmonton is third in the league.
Dallas is first.
And it's second.
Then it's Edmonton.
If your defense is playing that well, you get average goal tending and you have Connor
McDavid on your team and you're a plus 155 underdog, I'm going to take it.
Yeah.
And I thought Edmonton played them really well in the game in Edmonton.
It was a 3-2 loss.
But if it's going to be that kind of affair, I completely agree you're getting a really
good number.
Although with that said, I think I've been saying this a lot for Boston and it continues
to hold true when they play the elite teams.
It doesn't seem like they're blowing them out of the water.
I saw an interesting sheet put together on Twitter this week of Boston's analytical results
versus top sides.
And they were extremely modest.
And I know that's one of those things where it's like ultimately who really cares.
They have all mark.
They're finding ways to win them.
But that does make me think that I just can't bet on Boston to win these games when it just
and I think the eye test matches that where like when you watch them play like these other
elite sides, it doesn't seem like they're blowing them out of the water.
I know they kind of did to New York the other day.
But as much as I'd love to rip on the Rangers, that wasn't really the Rangers considering
the three and four spot and they didn't have two of their top defensive pairings together.
So I think it's been a lot of like super close games versus top teams.
And yeah, I like the price here with that said.
As long as Stuart Skinner starts.
100%.
You cannot do it with Campbell.
That is it.
What about you?
You have an underdog for us on Thursday?
Yes.
I like an actual team in this one.
Although the goal scores were doing okay because McCann came through for us and you
know, we're on ahead six shots on that and then we're in.
So anyways, quick grip on that.
But I like the senators.
They are going to have another really shaky goal-tending situation.
But I can live with it versus the Kraken who will have the same.
So they should be around plus 120.
I think it's a really good play with how they have looked over the last month.
They obviously had the massive hiccup and the five nothing loss to Chicago.
I think a ton of better has got burned on that game myself included because it just it seemed
like a great spot for them to keep rolling.
I think the surprise Cam Talbot start kind of threw them off in that or sorry, the surprise
scratch to Cam Talbot kind of threw them off in that game.
And I know he's still going to be out, but it kind of just seemed like one of those things
is a game where every single thing went wrong.
I think you could watch that first period and say it could have easily been one nothing.
Ottawa and then it just kind of just compounded from there and everything wasn't going their
way which happens.
But I still think this is actually going to be a really close game.
I expect 50-50.
I think we should see a lot of offense and this number is just a little too long for me
with how good Ottawa has been playing.
So I think it's a good spot to get on the senators here.
Yeah, I'll be with you there.
Like Ottawa, that game against Chicago I think is one of those situations where we'll kind
of just draw a line through it.
Not really too much.
You can't really glean much.
They should have been up two or three nothing in that first period and the game should have
been over.
But Alex Dailock outduled Med SoGuard by quite a margin and then things went off the rails.
So the senators are...
And so it's been respectable.
I know it's your job to be ready no matter what he was not ready.
It didn't seem like and it was just one of those things like a comedy of errors for the
senators in that game.
But I think I can trust him versus Seattle and it's not like he's going to give them that
much of a deficit compared to what Seattle has in goal.
So I think considering how I expect the gameplay to look, this is a pretty solid bet.
All right, let's look at the big board now.
Desides, of course, from BetMGM, Rangers, Midas.
They're in Montreal taking on Le Havitance.
Montreal is plus 225 over under is six and a half.
There ever was a get right spot for the Rangers.
This would be it.
It feels like Sisipatra Kane trade went down.
There's the media hype and then kind of the reality sunk in of where...
This is a very specific kind of player for a team that it was kind of like a vanity thing
more than anything and now they got to figure out a way to fit him.
Putting that on the fly against good opposition is one thing.
And then you get a couple of days off to practice.
Go to Montreal, get some bodies back, some important bodies back.
I mean, they had to play short handed because of the Kane situation.
It just feels like this is your classic Rangers blowout.
Everybody's back on.
Maybe Kane scores a couple.
I actually wouldn't hate an anytime goal score look on him, but I'm assuming he's going
to be really short because they're playing one of the worst teams in the league.
But yeah, it'll likely be a pass for me, but I can't look anywhere else but the Rangers
if I had to.
Yeah, I agree.
Like I'm not going to dunk on the Rangers at all as someone who like isn't really sure
how it's going to go with Kane.
I'm not going to act like that take is at all correct yet because I don't think those
first couple games mean anything.
Like he said he didn't even have a morning skate with a group.
So, and actually I thought he was better than like minus four and whatever it ended up being
suggested like I thought you could see used, you know, creating some some plays.
I kind of agree.
I think a good team prop.
I think maybe power play point depending on where it opens could be good.
Montreal's penalty kills really bad.
And I know that was probably a point they sat and dialed in with their two practices this
week trying to figure out how the power play was going to look and so on.
And then the other one, maybe if some of the books don't adjust laffron years on the top
power play now, which from a logic standpoint, I don't really think taking zibina jat off
P one makes any sense because he's got such a good one timer and I just don't see how
you're having him on P two on that team.
But with that said, if laffron year like sometimes the power play point prices are crazy, you
might see like might be able to find him around plus 500 plus five 50.
So I think that could be a good look in Kane as well.
But yeah, that's kind of if God's still probably a little too wide to play the Rangers in this
spot.
Right.
He just can't trust.
I mean, because like we're kind of considering the narrative angles of a get right spot and
whatever, but at the same time, you know, they have kind of been searching for it a
little bit and then throwing this wrench in the system doesn't help.
And the goal tending has been shaky for them over the past few months.
Gratby.
Yeah.
That's a kind of one thing like, I mean, Allen's been home.
It's on to both been great.
Yes.
Yeah.
A huge game in Pittsburgh between the Islanders and penguins right now, the Islanders are
up one point on Pittsburgh for wild card one.
The Florida Panthers are four points back of the Islanders, three points back of the
penguins.
So both of these teams will be desperate for to, or at least one, the Islanders plus 115
on the road, penguins minus 135 at home, the over under six.
These two teams are both kind of playing.
They're playing very different styles of hockey, but they're playing the way they need to play
to get points.
The Islanders are playing that suffocating clog up the neutral zone, turn every second
of every game into a rock fight style that we saw under Barry trots in their salad days.
And that was, it wasn't Pittsburgh didn't ever like go to that extreme, but they were
always a solid defensive team under Mike Sullivan.
They've thrown that script out the window because they're not getting the gold tending.
They're not getting the defensive form to play that style.
So they're just betting on themselves in these, these kind of back and forth seesaw battles.
They just came back from four, nothing down against Columbus in the game.
I mentioned at the top one in an overtime.
You can't trust the defense.
You can't trust the gold tending.
The Islanders are the kind of the opposite where you just can't trust the offense to
keep up with Pittsburgh.
If this turns into a track meet, even though they beat him a couple of times, this will
be the first time the Islanders swept Pittsburgh in the regular season ever, 49 seasons before
this one.
This is the Islanders 50th season.
They're 50th where they played Pittsburgh in the regular season.
No matter how many times they played, they've never swept them in the regular season.
It's Islanders for me.
I think plus 115 is fine.
It's the way that these two teams are going.
They're trending.
The Islanders are playing a very committed, they're committed to the bit.
They're playing safe and they're just relying on Ilya Sorokin or Varlamov.
I think this is pretty certain to be Sorokin to make the saves when he's called upon.
And with Pittsburgh leaking, like the Islanders are still getting looks.
They're just playing much more counter-tacking style.
And Pittsburgh is susceptible to that with the way that they're kind of going.
Yeah, I actually completely agree.
I would never play the Penguins in this spot.
I haven't really seen anything I've liked out of them.
And I kind of, yeah, I just think it's Ales or nothing.
I don't even know if Grant Denlin's going to play in this one, but I don't think he
moves the needle.
He doesn't sort out.
I know so far he's actually the bottom six has been doing better.
But their bottom six is horrible this year.
And I don't see that turning around, which makes you think they're not even going to tilt
the ice in some of these shifts versus the Ales.
And behind that, they're going to try to cover up a massive goal-tending mismatch.
I think looking forward to go the way the last meeting in Pittsburgh went is kind of fair.
And yeah, I just don't see much value with the Pins.
On a side note too, if this is a three-point game, I might just have to bet on it being
a three-point game because it will.
It'll be a tie somehow.
I can totally see it.
And I just, I think a lot of fans are maybe in my boat where I don't really want these
to be the two wild card teams.
I feel like I've seen it.
I think it'd be fun to see something fresh.
So I'll be happy for you if the Ales get in.
They didn't make it last year.
Yes, that's true.
But I've seen what this core of Islanders is about in playoffs.
And you know what?
They could maybe give a better series than any of the other wild card teams I think.
But I'm hoping to see a nice fresh team in there.
Give me like the Senators or the Sabres or something fun.
Yeah, I think most casual fans would agree with you.
I of course disagreeing with us.
I mean, hey, do you want to go kick the Penguins out?
By all means, Ottawa or Buffalo or Florida, go get them.
And to that end, I still think Pittsburgh is a bet to miss the playoffs.
The floor is so low with this team.
If Crosby, Malkin, Latang, Gensil, any off night for one of them, one out of the four,
they're in trouble.
They don't have the depth to make up for it.
The goaltending has been erratic.
I mean, Casey to Smith has been better than Jari.
And people are pointing to this blue jackets game.
Like it's a turnaround place, like a turnaround spot.
They were down four nothing to the blue jackets.
And I know Tristan Jari gave up four on 12, but like still, you can't.
Well, that's part of the problem though, is that you can't really trust either goaltender.
So yeah, I know and they do have so coming up.
And I don't know why the NHL has so many of these scheduling oddities.
They play the Rangers three out of four next week.
And if the Rangers are kind of clicking at that point where they're like starting to
kind of hum like everyone's expecting, maybe that goes really bad, then they have the senators
in the abs and then the stars.
So that kind of does work towards your point that that's such as kind of going to determine
where they go.
To make the playoffs right now, the Islanders are pick them.
They were a three to one at the All-Star break.
So the play is a bad bet.
But here's where Pittsburgh is.
They're minus 450 to make it plus 340 to miss.
You just laid out their schedule.
Let's say the Islanders do win.
Even if the Islanders lose tomorrow, like they go one, one and three in their next five,
including that Islander game with three against the Rangers, the stars, like the door just
completely opens up for Florida or Ottawa.
Florida's got a relatively easy schedule.
They've got it back to back with Chicago and Winnipeg before a bunch of days off.
I think this Pittsburgh team models are still kind of like high on their chances.
The betting market is, and I think just a lot of that is kind of just pedigree more than
anything.
Well, at least the betting market because it's been 16 years in a row that this team has
just earned the benefit of the doubt of, oh, they'll get in eventually, I think.
But I think out of, it sounds weird to say, but between the Islanders, Penguins, Panthers,
Senators and Sabres, I think it's between Pittsburgh and Buffalo, between the team with
the lowest floor, the Senators goal-tening situation might maybe throw them in that mix.
But this team is there five and five over the last 10.
And it's been basically like that.
It's been that form for since Christmas.
Like it's, they went on that one stretch.
To be fair, to like the Penguins schedule, it does get softer after that stretch.
But I'm just kind of using that to make the note like, I think if you're going to do
the to make playoffs, do it now.
And then, you know, take the risk that they get destroyed over that stretch.
And they were lying on, they were lying.
So like Crosby, Malkin have basically played, I think that Crosby hasn't missed a game
and Malkin's played most of the tanks had some health stuff here and there.
But that, the margin of error is so thin for them.
One injury to the top of the roster and Woof.
So yeah, that's where I'm at with Pittsburgh and the Islanders.
That's where we're at the Penguins generally.
We can talk about the Stars and Sabres now.
So Buffalo loses to the Islanders in regulation and a hard fought game at UBS Arena.
Once again, I was in the building, maybe I tilted it for the Islanders.
The Islanders, I thought were really good in the game.
I didn't think Buffalo, they, of course you have a gripe when the call, a 50-50 call,
like that goes against you with the kick, kicking motion.
But in terms of the way the game actually played out, the Islanders, it was an Islanders game,
wasn't a Sabres game by any means.
And I thought Ukepeka looking in in the post really kind of turned that from a possible
6-2 to 3-2.
Tough to trust the Sabres when they're playing games like this.
By that I mean when you're playing a team like Dallas, who's defensive form is really
good right now because Buffalo's margin for error.
Like you trust them in a game where they're trading chances.
But in a game where the offense is going to be tough to come by, you just don't because
they'll make more mistakes in the Stars.
So minus 1-50 on Dallas is maybe a little long on the road, I'm assuming a little short
on the road.
But like if you wanted to play like a Stars and an Under, like same game parlay, I could
see it because I think those two things would correlate well.
But I'll be passing.
Yeah, I'm a little more lean Sabres in this game, but I'm pretty much passing too.
They've done super well against the East.
They won in Dallas earlier in the year and I think they can give them a competitive game.
And the Stars are kind of fighting it a little bit.
It's been a pretty good, I know they had the Unreal performance versus Colorado.
But I thought overall, overall they took a pretty deserving loss to Calgary and hasn't
been overly impressive for me.
So I'm kind of still a little bit on like the Fade Dallas train right now.
And I do, like I think Dad and Avon don't me help.
I don't think they help as much as people think.
It seems like every deadline for the last like six years, Max Domi's been the pick up for
some team that supposedly puts him over the edge.
And I know last year he came up big in Game 7 versus Boston.
I think it was Game 7 versus Boston with Carolina, right?
He had two goals.
And like, you know, maybe if they go deeper, that changes things.
But I just, I don't really see him as the guy who puts you over the top still.
Maybe with them he helps more because their depth scoring is so bad.
But I think he's one of those guys that like you have to consider the role he was in in
Chicago when he was racking up those points and like that sort of thing.
And I know it's hard to play on Chicago, but he's still getting top top.
Everything now he's got to drive his own line over there.
So we'll see.
I'm a little, I'll have to wait and see what I think about Dad and Avon and Domi putting
their secondary scoring into a good place because I feel like it's kind of still going
to be pretty mid compared to a lot of these top teams.
Dad and Av for some reason is one of my favorite players with no connections to the Islanders.
Like he just, I loved him.
Like when he came over from the KHL to Florida and he was really good.
And then that kind of weird trip through Vegas where they tried to trade him, then he vetoed
it to Anaheim and then ends up in Montreal.
It's just his story is hilarious.
And now he's in Dallas.
And like you said, on the action network podcast, I believe he's just such a stars trade deadline
pickup.
He's like these kind of good journey men.
Like journey men usually is a slight head of professional hockey player or athlete, but
they're solid there in the upper tier of journey men.
Yeah.
And like to be fair to doubt, like I think it was a good way to try to do something without
overpaying because their core moving forward looks so good.
They have those top four locked up to such team friendly deals that I think it's kind
of like they should be looking almost like longer window and trying to avoid like going
all in this year.
But at the same time they did enough that in the West, they can probably say they have
an honest chance.
So, so yeah, I like it overall.
I'm just a little skeptic about where it like puts them when they're facing teams, top
teams in the East, not that I suppose Buffalo is one of those, but I think they'd they'd
look a lot better in the West as we've kind of talked about a lot.
The betting season is here, so get in on the action with the King of Sportsbooks.
Sign up with BetMGM using bonus code action and get up to $1,000 paid back in bonus bets
if your first bet doesn't win.
Visit BetMGM.com for terms and conditions.
Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Nevada,
New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Tennessee, Virginia, Washington, DC,
West Virginia, Wyoming, or Ontario only.
Must be 21 or older to wager, 19 or older in Ontario.
New customer offer.
All promotions are subject to qualification and eligibility requirements.
Rewards issued as non-withdrawable free bets or site credit.
Free bets expire seven days from issuance.
Excludes Michigan disassociated persons.
Please gamble responsibly.
Gambling problem?
Call 1-800-NEX-STEP in Arizona, 1-800-522-4700 in Colorado, DC, Kansas, Louisiana, Nevada,
Wyoming, or Virginia.
1-800-270-7117 for confidential help in Michigan, 1-800-Gambler in Indiana, Maryland, New Jersey,
or West Virginia, 1-800-Bets-Off in Iowa, 1-800-981-0023 in Puerto Rico, call 8-7-7-8-HOPE-NY or
text HOPE-NY in New York.
Call or text the Tennessee Red Line at 8-0-0-8-9-9-7-8-9 or call 1-888-7-7-7-9-6-9-6 in
Mississippi.
In Ontario, if you have questions or concerns about York gambling or someone close to you,
please contact Connex Ontario at 1-866-531-2600 to speak to an advisor free of charge.
Sports betting is void in Georgia, Hawaii, and Utah, or any other states where prohibited.
The Vegas Golden Knights are finishing off their Florida two-step.
They played in sunrise, lost to the Panthers.
On Tuesday, they now travel to Tampa Bay as plus 135 underdogs.
The Boltz minus 155.
They did take care of business finally against the Flyers to end their skid.
Tony DeAngelo then cup-checked Corey Perry.
Hey, maybe that's a galvanizing moment for this team.
The Boltz minus 155.
Out of the over under six, we spoke about this on Tuesday's show.
If Jonathan Quick starts here, I would make a play on Tampa on an alternate like Puckline.
Tampa to win by two or three or four going up against Vasilewski, that's a monumental
goaltending mismatch.
We're not talking about if they were playing the Predators and going up against Usaros.
He's not only going up against one of the best goalies in the league, but one of the
top five teams in the league as well.
Keep an eye out there.
Once Jonathan Quick, if he does get confirmed, he didn't start on Tuesday and it was eight
in Hill.
I do think that they're going to sprinkle in five or six starts first quick to see where
he's at and give him some reps behind this defense before the playoffs just in case.
This could be one spot where he does get the nod.
Yeah, I think you've got to give him reps here and there if you're going to get a new
goal in, try to play them because they got to adjust.
But yeah, I agree.
I think either way, probably lightning or nothing for me, but it is a little sketchy
still back in these lightning games just because you don't truly know what to expect.
I still think with the rosters that are going tomorrow, you could argue the edge should be
with the lightning at this price.
I don't know if I'll play it though.
I think if you're a follower who has some of these Oilers divisions or crackin' divisions,
make sure you're always keeping that in mind with not trying to expose yourself with needing
a lightning result already.
Flyers, the wheels came off the Philadelphia Flyers a while ago, but they feel like they're
coming off.
More coming off, the wheels are coming off again.
Maybe they put on some replacement tires and those are flying off with the way that the
fans kind of ripped it to the management staff for handling of the deadline and the Tony
D'Angelo stuff.
Things just aren't good.
They're plus 290 in Carolina.
It's just incredible stuff.
You hate to let that stuff seep into how you're going to play something, but I almost
would be interested in Philly here, but that stuff kind of scares me off because they're
plus 290.
They're taking on the hurricanes.
Hurricanes are flying right now.
But the Flyers are going to give an honest effort that they're likely going to get the
gold tending of Carter Hart's.
We could see Pietro Piork, Kachekov, start his first NHL game in a while with anti-Ranta
hurt.
If you're going to start him and you want to ease him back into an NHL workload, the
Flyers are a good spot to do it.
It's what I'm thinking.
Not that I don't think he's a good goalie, but he has shown some kind of glimpses of being
like undisciplined in how he plays, so it could be your classic, you know, Carolina
once every 10 games outshoots a team, four to one and loses and the price is big enough
up Philly to almost justify it.
So we'll see, but it's just so hard to get behind them right now because of the circus.
Yeah, I think I guess this kind of works against your outshooting point a little bit, but I
could definitely be interested in Hart's saves prop again.
Over the last 10 playing the Carolina's opponents gold tender to go over his saves prop has
been money because they're sitting at like 31.5 32.5 around that.
And that's like crazy enough, but that's not moving the needle enough from where it would
be versus a normal team because Carolina's putting up like 40 shots a game when they
play Tampa, they're putting up like 40 shots a game.
So it's an angle I've been liking that's actually been working out lately.
And I think it's kind of a strong spot for to continue, but it's always line dependent
with those and those lines go up super late.
But it just seems like it's like hard for the odds makers to move the needle enough.
Most boys are at 20 and a half 29.5 30.5.
And it's like if you're playing the Keynes, I honestly think like those should be sitting
at 34.5 consistently.
Myers now on to the San Jose sharks and St. Louis blues sharks plus 120 St. Louis minus
140 over under 60 have nothing for me.
Do you want to go back to the Jacob for on a prop?
I mean, if Kat can ins in maybe I could you talk about teams completely falling apart
San Jose has the lower points percentage than Chicago now, which is amazing.
If we lose those futures on team to finish dead last because of this outrageous collapse
from San Jose, I don't even know what the hell is going on over there.
But they really quietly trended down to being like a complete joke.
I think if Cacken is I don't think he will be unless they're like, I hate to say like
a bit of a tank move, but like, why would he play after rhyme or just absolutely dominated
Winnipeg and then the next night, Cackenin just gets absolutely blown out of the water
yet again.
So yeah, you know, I think I'll probably go to Verana if Cackenin is in that should
help some of those actually go in.
And then I'm intrigued to see if like St. Louis shakes up the power play units because
I know I'd mentioned to you off the air, but I don't really see.
Oh, they did.
Okay.
So it looks like they're going to put Ron on power play too, which is interesting because
yeah, I don't really see how he doesn't get a spot on one of the units with the bodies
that are getting spots on some of them.
We talked about how they were skating Logan Brown and one of the power play rules.
So yeah, I think Verana could be a good look again.
Go back to the well on that one.
And we've talked about how many times this year painfully so it's been like a decent
take on like an anytime goal score where they're fairly noticeable.
And then I'll kind of like get off it or something and then and then they score the next game.
It is.
And then that's the other thing.
You don't want to end up just slamming a guy 20 games in a row.
Yeah, exactly.
So it's like a bit of a balance of trying to like, you know, weigh like if it actually
should be still happening at a, you know, look at each game as an individual one off
of like, is this guy still likely to score in this game more than whatever the price
they're offering suggests as opposed to just thinking like he's due because I do think
on goals, sometimes that is hard.
We're like, you know, you don't want to miss like the game that he does it if you've been
playing it.
Yeah, it's the, I like to call it Tommy Fleetwood syndrome.
I will basically bet Tommy would every tournament when he's, you know, 50, 60, 70 to one, like
he is this week for the players.
But I know that the week that I don't do it, Tommy Fleetwood will lift the trophy for sure.
And that's such a thing.
And like, I think golf out rates, everyone's like that.
Like there's guys that, you know, everyone, I know, always picks in their pools.
Like I know they'll be in there when they mix them in.
Like if they put like a couple dollars down on the masters, they've got their guys that
are getting played.
And I'm the same way, especially because for the whole.
You know what it is?
It's Carolina hurricane syndrome in the NHL.
There's so many people I know of, I like you who bet the hurricanes to win the Stanley
Cup.
10 years in a row and a bunch of them did not do it this year because they were 11 to one
and folks were rightfully sick of them doing what they do in the playoffs at West now,
Los Angeles and Colorado.
This is in Denver.
The Kings are plus 140 abs minus 165.
The over under six and a half.
I'm not, I don't have a bet here, but Los Angeles is five on five numbers.
I think every once in a while just should be noted once again, like since the also break,
their top five in expected goals, their top five in high danger, chance percentage, their
second and high danger, chance percentage.
That's a really, really strong five on five team that if you once I'll just keep kind
of noting this point, if you don't have any futures in for like a Stanley Cup better,
anything like that, I still think Los Angeles at 30 to one is fine considering the conference
that the Penguins are 30 to one.
So if you just want one price, I mean, you could talk me into Calgary, but I think it'd
be Los Angeles.
Nothing for me in this game though.
Yeah, I actually kind of like the abs here, but just the lean towards the abs are past.
I think they're trending towards just, you know, they're going to make a big push to
the playoffs.
I think get into elite form and, you know, with my car back in the mix, they actually
kind of have pretty close to their top roster.
So I kind of like the abs here.
I might go back to McKinnon over four and a half shots to kind of a dumb loss.
I mean, it was my fault in part because I was really thinking neck game could be a blow
versus San Jose and then I played the McKinnon shop prop and he had four and 15 minutes
because I didn't need to use them because San Jose didn't give them any kind of a game.
So I think maybe going back to that and we'll hopefully be a closer game.
But I kind of just lean abs are past.
All right.
And with that, we move to top shelf bets.
Our favorite bets for Thursday, March 9th in the NHL.
Top shelf where mama lines the cookies.
Let you go first with an East Coast start.
Yes, I'm going to go with the New Jersey Devils to win in regulation over the Washington
capitals.
Just like I said, on Monday versus the Kings, I don't get how this price is as close as
it is at all.
This like that is such I don't understand what the marker respect for the caps is coming
from.
So she because that time is this year when actually that they're better than they were
when they had more of the roster, they were getting undervalued.
I don't know if it's like a lack of understanding like what's actually going for this team,
even if Nick Jensen plays, I think the price should be like minus 155 minus 160.
I think if he doesn't play, should be a lot wider than that.
The caps have a second pairing of Matt Irwin and Gabriel Carlson.
I said it before the Kings game that this team is significantly worse than they are and
they got absolutely caved in.
They shouldn't have hung around in that game.
They got the five on three goal.
And I think it's just a lot of, you know, I, and then like obviously to talk more sort
of towards the Devils, that team is so good.
I don't really think that Toronto game scares me away here.
I think of anything that makes me like the spot a little more because that was a pretty
frustrating loss.
And I think they're, you know, they still have a lot to play for and push towards the
playoffs.
This was when when I saw this number, I did a double take and like checked the Devil's
roster because I thought it was going to say that like Man of Check or Hamilton or someone
pretty crucial was out.
And I think this is the kind of game where like if the caps win, which is still going
to happen like 35% of the time or whatever, like that's the reality of it.
We're going to see so many people say like trap game, like blah, blah, blah and all
those, all those things.
And I think that realistically the reality of it is just like, I know both these rosters.
I know where these teams are at.
This price is a little surprisingly close, which I think is all we're ultimately trying
to look for when we're, you know, gambling and trying to find an edge is just like what
should the number be?
I don't think this number is right.
And I think it's kind of the exact same as the Kings game where I said the same thing
as a caps fan rush.
Just like, I know this team I've watched LA.
Like what are we doing here?
Why are they minus 135 anywhere?
And yeah, so that's kind of my rant on that.
I think it's a pretty great spot to get a legitimately good devil's team versus a caps
team that's very stale offense ability right now.
And like to go further on that, like I just don't see what guys are going to move the
needle offensively for the caps at this moment.
Like a Vatican has his moments.
Just raspous and Dean.
He's the only one.
Yeah.
And even then like look at the collection of points he's got.
It's it.
It reminds me of Gus Dustin earlier in the year where I was like, okay, yeah, he's doing
some things well, but he's also running incredibly good.
He's tapping pucks in the five hole that are going six miles an hour.
So you know, it is what it is.
Who's net self's in horrible form?
Like I just don't think they have the kind of guys that are going to like drive the play
and control play versus a really good devil's team.
So yeah, I like the cap or sorry, I like the devils.
I think we've got a pretty good spot for them here.
My favorite bet.
Yotes at home, baby.
Coyotes.
They are plus one 45 taking on the national predators at the mullet and the coyotes looked
really.
I mean, they played the blues, but they look great the other night in a 6 to win.
Let's update the people on the coyotes at home theory.
They're 15 and 14 at Arizona State.
If you had bet $100 on every coyotes game, $998, you would have returned into your pocket
34.4% ROI.
They are still by a wide margin the best bet in the NHL at home.
The only team that's close to them are the historically good Boston Bruins who their
ROI would be 22.1% and $728 return to $100 better if you bet the Bruins blindly every
game.
After that, it's like it's staggering the difference between Arizona and then like, you
know, draw a line to the Bruins because they are historically good.
Then it seems like Winnipeg Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay's 24 and nine, the ROI is around 11%.
I get it like there's only a couple, there's a couple of big wins here that are big prices
that are playing into this.
I think that a 29 game sample when you're only going to get out of 41 is pretty meaningful
that this narrative is probably legitimate for and it's not just, you know, there's,
I said there's going to be like a little bit of like a mini Vegas flu situation.
I think that's part of it.
I also think like these are NHL players coming to a college rink and for some they might
think it's cool, but then like you got guys from like Sweden and Russia coming in like,
what is Arizona State like playing in this college rink?
There's no like nostalgic value to them.
Like this, it could just catch, you know, guys just not taking it seriously.
And I know that the predators are, you know, doing a little dead cat, dead cat bounce where
they think that they're still in this thing and they're going to be playing hard, but
they just came off of a tough loss the other night against Vancouver and a game that they
really, really needed to have two points if they wanted to keep the charade up.
So the gold tending, you know, it's probably going to be Sorrows and Vameleka big edge
to Sorrows, but the number, the situation and the way that the coyotes play.
And I like that they have a little bit of a chip on their shoulder.
I mean, they were just absolutely dragged for the way that the trade deadline was handled
for good reason.
Like they are becoming a money laundering scheme of the NHL, but the that's not the
players fault.
And I think that they kind of, you know, live off of that kind of stuff and you can.
I can baby point to like three or four instances where I've watched a coyotes game out of and
I've watched too many of them this year where you can question the effort.
So this team is going to play hard.
They're good at home.
They're taking out a predator's team that traded some really important pieces and is
not very good.
So I like the coyotes here.
Yeah, I like the coyotes.
I actually they played, they hosted Nashville like two weeks ago and I thought it was like
the same thing, such a good play and they lost six to so that I think I had enough on
that one.
It's crazy to think too.
Like the coyotes have the best line in this game.
And like the better true offensive stars.
They don't have Yossi, but like that Keller, Hayden inch, mult's line is really good.
And that could be another angle to target is just like picking some of those guys, your
favorite props because they're playing really, really well right now.
So I like that.
And also the top four is hanging in a little more because Valamak is.
Valamak, he's been around his own pair.
Moses, okay.
He's kind of a player.
I like to, but that bottom six up front right now is really, really awful, which scares
me, but I like that they're all, you know, they're all playing for contracts and they
all don't usually get NHL minutes.
So you know, there's that argument for them.
So I like it.
I agree.
I think it's the coyotes or nothing, but I'm a little scared to go back to the.
Yeah, this is this is how we end the streak.
Coyotes at home going against your capitals.
And then the underdogs off the top.
The sends and the Oilers against the historically good Bruins.
And that is my change for this week.
Prinik Mar and Michael Lee Buff, we will see you again Monday night or Thursday morning.
Action Network reminds you, please gamble responsibly.
If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 24 seven at 1-800