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Staring good.
This crowd is going for the bananas.
As they say in hockey, let's do that hockey.
Hello everyone. Welcome back to line change.
The NHL betting podcast from the action network presented to you by our friends at BetMGM.
My name is Michael Liboff.
Joining me is always is my co-host.
NHL betting expert Nick Martin.
Nick, it's busy in the NHL right now.
Trade's flying all over the place.
If any dad enough is a Dallas star, can you believe it?
Some other big names flying all over too.
But we're going to talk about the games coming up on Tuesday.
We'll sprinkle some deadline chatter in and out, I'm sure, as we break these things down.
But if you want to hear a more robust kind of big picture view of what's going on at
the NHL from a betting lens with the trade deadline looming on Friday, I'll be sure to
listen to our episode on the action network podcast feed.
We're recording that one right after this.
But for now, we will start where we always do that's with an underdog and we're going
to go dumpster diving here.
The Columbus blue jackets are plus 170 against the Buffalo Sabres on Tuesday night.
Sabers are minus 210 over under 6.5.
I think this number is only going to head in one direction too.
The reason I like the jackets and like I said, I think you can probably wait for a better
number is the Buffalo Sabres as much as they can score and Alex talk is out so that things
in a bit.
But as much as they can score, they also leak goals.
They're goal tending when it's not Craig Anderson who's 41 years old and God bless them.
And goal like they're struggling to keep the puck out of the net.
It makes them a good underdog, right?
A team that can score with the more talented teams, but a pretty vulnerable favorite because
they can also let in goals and keep teams like Columbus in the game.
Buffalo's four and four in their eight games as a favorite of minus 180 or higher this
season.
I think that is a pretty good even in an eight game sample, pretty good reflection of what
you can expect when this team gets to these prices.
And meanwhile, Columbus is still playing competitive hockey.
They haven't lost by more than two goals since February 10th when they lost three nil to
the Leafs, four, two and two in their last eight shoot out loss to the wild the other
day in which they blew a two nothing lead.
So they're feisty.
They've just beat the Oilers as well.
Like this is and they showed some gumption in that game, right?
They blew the four nothing lead and still ended up winning.
Yeah, I think the price is going to be good enough here and Columbus take a shot against
a team that is in a must win spot, right?
So it's that must win narrative seeping into the market.
And when you bet against that, you're likely going to get some good value.
Yeah, I like it.
Columbus have been really scrappy.
I think this will be one ideally, maybe even you see better prices with the blue jackets
closer to the game.
Buffalo kind of showed me on the weekend because I thought Dali moved the needle out.
It went him out and tuck.
I thought it moved the needle enough that the caps were playable.
The caps were just absolute garbage in that game.
I didn't really think I rated anything from Buffalo that impressive there.
And I think a lot of the flaws are there and that eventually the loss of Dali will be really
massive because if you look at Buffalo's third pairing, it is getting caved in.
So when they have to elevate these guys into bigger roles, I think it is really reasonable
to say that they could struggle.
And yeah, so I think the logic there is pretty strong.
I know the Sabres are everyone's favorite team right now.
They're really, really fun to watch.
So hopefully the price will grow.
Yeah.
And you have a, I guess we can't call it an underdog, but a good number that you want
to throw out there on a player prop.
Yeah.
So I think Andreas, it's not going to see you.
I'm excited to watch how it goes tonight versus Anaheim on these props.
If you're hearing this before tonight's game, I think it's a good one as well.
Has the potential to go off over these next two games.
Playing on the top line top power play, it's a he's the kind of guy.
This is a bit of like, maybe just personal take.
But if you're going to give him space and let him fly down the wings and do his thing
as Arizona and the Ducks probably will, there's the potential that this is a bit of a smash
spot.
And I do think there's an outside chance he still gets traded and wants out of there.
So it's a good show me time like we saw with Patrick Kane.
So I don't have any dogs right now, but I think Athanas CEO is a pretty interesting
take for the week.
With that said, we've talked about it.
I've been, I've been in shambles in terms of my whole career with action.
This has been like my worst week.
I think you'll like this story.
So on the weekend and at my men's league game, a guy skated by me, obviously knew who I was.
And he just says, nice fucking pics lately.
I had no more bottle.
I literally just like got on the bench and was like, all right, bro, good for you.
And just so anyways, I bet you know what, I think things are due to get better or else
I'm going to have to like, you know, shake my head or something.
So they're going to come around.
It's the old adage.
I like to say when people ask me, how, what do I do when I'm on a hot streak?
It's I live in in constant fear of regression.
And what do I do when I'm on a cold streak?
I just convinced myself that I'll never turn it around.
And on that positive note, let's dive into the rest of the big board 10 games on Tuesday
night.
February 28 and only two of them feature only two of them are like completely meaningless.
They feature teams that are out of the two teams that are out of the play off mix.
So we'll start with Florida and Tampa battle the sunshine state Florida's plus 135 in Tampa
bolts minus 160 over under here seven.
One of these wobbles from Tampa Bay that we've grown accustomed to kind of just ignoring
that they were outplayed by Detroit, but Vasaleski stood on his head in a outstanding shutout
performance.
And then they got walloped by Pittsburgh.
I think it was a football score seven three by the end of it.
But Florida will be at without on bar cob again, they'll be without Sam Bennett.
So not too much for me to get involved here.
I think the number with those guys that looks right.
Yeah, this feels like a game where whatever pick I make would just go wrong.
But I like to think that I feel like Campbell will bounce back, but I don't know if the
numbers here to really get into that.
Yeah, the Red Wings are and senators.
This is the second game of back to back with both games taking place in Ottawa.
They're playing on Monday night and then they're playing again on Tuesday night prices basically
the same right now on Monday night there minus 125.
The senators are at home.
And for Tuesday as we look ahead, it's minus 130.
Magnus Helberg is getting the nod for the Red Wings on Monday night, which we'll see
who so in goal for them on Tuesday in all likelihood.
And it looks like Cam Talbot will get to start on Monday night and he's rumored to be traded.
So this could be his last start.
And then we'll see the backup for Ottawa on Tuesday night unless they want to just keep
riding him until they trade him.
I got nothing here either.
I think you got to watch Monday night.
It's a weird spot for the senators.
And because when you look at the way that this playoff race is breaking down in the east,
the Islanders right now have the first wild card spot 69 points, but they've played 63
games.
Then it's Pittsburgh 67 points from 59 Buffalo 66 points from 58 Detroit 64 from 58 Florida
Washington both on 64 from 61 to 62 games played.
But Ottawa can still convince themselves that they're in this race.
There's seven points behind Pittsburgh and nine behind the Islanders, but they have five
games in hand on the Islanders.
They have a game in hand on Pittsburgh and two wins over Detroit for Ottawa.
And all of a sudden we're talking about the senators and kind of the same fashion.
We're talking about Buffalo Detroit Panthers and not the caps for as much anymore as they've
kind of waved the way flag.
So this is a huge game Monday night and then you try not to get into the narratives, but
like a regulation loss from the senators, I think does actually matter a little bit in
how you bet this thing on Tuesday night.
So I'll be passing regardless.
But it is.
I mean, who would have thought senators red wings February 27th and 28th would probably
be the most interesting game on the slate?
Yeah.
I think that the under if it's set at six and a half is another interesting look.
You've seen that Detroit, it's really clear, I think based upon the eye test, if you're
watching what they're trying to do right now, they're looking to keep the games low event,
hang around, make less mistakes than the opponent and turn them into a coin flip and
hang around and just find a way to win.
And I think that's what the eye test says.
And I dove into the analytics of Detroit's recent run today.
And that's exactly what they say.
They're playing some of the most low event hockey in the league.
They're not allowing, they're generating less than they're allowing, but both marks are
really low and now with the goaltending stabilizing.
So I think of it six and a half again, I'll probably, I could see a lot of merit with
backing the under.
Senator, can you find that same way too?
Yeah, like the and the sense obviously they have a little more scoring punch.
It's been surprising how bad they've been at five on five, but they're not like a team
that I think is high event enough that they should be dragging this total to six and a
half.
Right now I see Detroit as just a dead under team barring like match ups, which are going
to, you know what I mean?
Just outside of horrible match ups.
I think this is a team that's just looking to win low scoring tight games right now.
And it seems like pretty much the lawn would happily tell you as much.
Yeah.
And it's one of those that a bet on it to go past regulation kind of makes a little bit
of sense to with the way that you expect it to play out.
The goal tending of course is the wrinkle here as senators without Forresburg.
If it's so guard, he's been in a small sample livable, which is enough to entice me for
the sense because it's not like they're used to getting crazy goal tending.
Winnipeg Jets are in a little bit of a skid now.
They're minus one 45 at home to the Kings who are plus one 25.
The over under six.
This has been a long road trip for Los Angeles.
They're coming back from the Rangers.
The trip through the New York area gets the Rangers devils and Islanders.
So it would be a lean towards Los Angeles at this price.
But the goal tending gap is pretty tough to swallow.
Yeah, I find that hard to handicap sometimes.
We've talked about it a lot with the Kings that Copley is just hard to live with.
And I still think it's true.
I mean, I, yeah, the price just looks sharp altogether.
But I didn't really see much here.
The Seattle Kraken are minus one 50 in St. Louis against the Blues.
Another team that's waved the white flag.
Ivan Barbershev has joined Lionel Riley in Tarasenko and Noel Chari and Nico Mikula as
players who have been traded from the St. Louis roster since the beginning of season.
The over under here is six.
I think the over is maybe worth a look.
Maybe not as high as it would be because Bennington just is coming off a pretty solid
performance against the Penguins.
But that would be the only way I'd look for a Kraken in Blues.
Yes, I'm hoping I could see there some arguments for a play on the Kraken here.
Like I don't think they've been as bad.
They've played some tough teams.
I thought they played Boston pretty well.
Not so good last night versus Toronto.
But I think they're still competing and this is such a big game for them.
There's so much deeper than the Blues now that, yeah, I think I can say that I can get
behind a Seattle lean on some of the early numbers Monday.
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The New York Islanders look out 18-wheeler, coming through the NHL right now.
They're plus 115.
In Minnesota, it gets a wild.
The wilder minus 135.
The over-under, we're seeing a 5.5.
How about that in this one?
I think from a price perspective, I would maybe play the Islanders if it gets a little
longer.
But I do want to say that sometimes the odds tell a story, and I think that's the case
here.
The Islanders are missing Matt Barzell and they're missing J.G.
Pajoe.
They're playing some, you know, AHL level players in the lineup, and this is the number.
Nash tells you that their form has been pretty good, and it has been defensively, especially.
And of course, the goal tending was Sarokin set to start, and this one after getting the
day off on Sunday.
He makes them alive under dog at any price.
So it would be Islanders are nothing for me here.
Yeah, I think I still like the under.
Obviously the match-ups being baked into it when we see a rare 5.5, but that's been a
lot of Islanders games recently have been a juiced six or a 5.5, and they're still trending
below that.
So I think I see some merit there.
The wild have no scoring punch.
They pretty much capers offs been half the offense for a reasonably large sample now,
and Gustavsson starting to dominate.
So I think there's some good logic there to look towards the under, and that would be
my lean on this one.
Okay.
The Boston Bruins, they're in Edmonton on Monday night, then they do the Alberta Two-Step
Two Calgary on Tuesday.
Boston's minus 120 flames in even money home underdog, the over under six.
If Boston, the next two points they collect, they go over their team season point total,
which was 96.5 points.
We've probably seen over-unders go over at an earlier part in the season, but those were
probably like 70.5s on teams that just completely shocked the league, right?
Not 97, getting to 97 points.
So Jesus.
The Bruins, man.
And they, of course, made a huge trade over the weekend, getting to meet your or a lob
and garnered half away from your capitals and only got better.
I got nothing here.
I mean, when we talk about betting blacklists, you're usually talking about teams like the
Anaheim Ducks or the Blue Jackets, the teams at the very bottom of the league that you
just were like, you know what, just done with them.
The flames are just impossible, man.
They are just impossible.
So I'm staying away.
Yeah, I agree.
It's a spot where I'm not willing to back Boston at this number, but I've been burned
on the flames so many times it's ridiculous.
And the Vegas one obviously was just another lot.
The Vegas collapse was just another awful loss on the flames.
I'm not a fan of the term like betting lists, like band and stuff like that.
Guys saying like this player is banned and so on.
But Calgary is like making me reevaluate that stance because of how gone before.
Like every spot seems presentable to me and then they just find a way to lose.
So and then they suck me in because I'm like, well, they're really going to do it again.
And then they do.
They do.
I said on a Thursday episode that it felt like a pretty good round robin episode and
it teetered on being pretty close.
A couple of underdog's won then the flames blew a three one lead that changed the night.
But I kind of feel like if you wanted to do a dumpster diving round robin or parlay.
Tuesday night is interesting because the Montreal Canadiens are plus one thirty five
in San Jose against the sharks who just traded Timo Meyer.
San Jose's minus one fifty five the over under six and a half San Jose's goal tending is
so poor and they should tilt the ice in the right direction as they against a team like
Montreal and they still have pieces.
But they've traded away Timo Meyer.
They might be sitting players out as we get closer to the deadline like Nick Benino and
other depth players.
And you know the effort you're going to get from Montreal every night from this young
team.
I just don't think that San Jose should be minus one fifty five in this spot considering
the goaltender and what what they just traded away.
So yeah, I'm going to be on the habs here.
It's ugly, but I can't see.
I would love to be introduced to the people that are going to lay it with the sharks in
the spot.
Yeah, I like it.
I would definitely agree habs there nothing.
And to pull it up, I'm sure without looking I'm just glancing.
The splits between the East and the West are really prominent here.
Yeah, Montreal is just one game below five hundred versus the West.
So that could work towards the idea that these teams are closer.
I know we bank on that angle a lot, but I think it is meaningful when you talk about
two teams that are apparently being viewed as drastically differently, especially Meyer
was so good.
Like he moves the needle all over the ice.
So I think once you factor out that loss, that's probably like four percent and that
price just does look looks long.
So yeah, I like it.
All right.
And that wraps up the big board.
Now we can look at our top shelf bets.
Our favorite bets Tuesday, February 28th.
Top shelf where Mama lines the cookies.
We'll start with Pittsburgh and Nashville.
The Penguins are minus one forty on the road.
Predators plus one twenty over under six and a half a lot going on in Nashville.
David Poyle, who has been their only general manager, the team came into the NHL in 1998
and he's been in charge since he's stepping aside for Barry Trotz, a former coach of your
Washington capitals and former coach of my New York Islanders.
And of course, former head coach for the national predators.
He will take over for Poyle.
The predators have traded away.
You know, we need a rider.
They traded away.
Champ Tanner, you know, more players will be traded from Nashville.
It seems the Penguins, meanwhile, things were not looking good.
Then they stabilized with a win in St. Louis, which was a good effort.
Shouldn't price you and I've got even close to overtime.
And they went it there and then they they trounced the lightning against Brian Elliott.
But Pittsburgh does look like they maybe have stabilized a little bit.
However, the defense is just tough for me to handle laying it here.
So I'm going to pass.
What do you have?
Yeah, I like the pens and regulation.
I think it's a great play.
I still don't think the predators are close to the Penguins, even with respect to what
their flaws are.
And I don't think the Preds are a good team to expose what Pittsburgh's flaws have been
recently, defending the rush and defending in general.
I still think the Preds are going to struggle a lot at five on five.
I know they've had a couple big performances versus Florida and Arizona lately.
I don't think that's going to be going right.
And I still think the difference between the top talents on these teams is massive.
So with Jari back, hopefully stabilizing them, the Penguins in goal.
I think there's a pretty wide gap between these teams and I'm willing to play Pittsburgh
here to win in regulation.
For me, it sounds like sacrilege given my coyotes at home stance, but the Hawks are
plus one 50 against Arizona.
Arizona's minus one 75.
I'm doing that kind of cartoon thing when they like wipe their eyes.
It's just hard to see minus one 75 next to the coyotes.
And I know the Hawks are bad and they traded away Kane, but they're playing all right.
And I'm a cave.
Don't forget McCabe.
Yeah, McCabe and Lafferty.
Yeah.
Yeah.
They, they, I just don't know, like for a team like and Jack Johnson, like for a team like
this, it's well, that's anti.
Yeah.
That one surprised me because I know he was there.
I know he won with Colorado.
He seems like the best dude in the world, but like he literally looks like one of the worst
players in the whole league.
So that, yeah.
But it's, it's in terms of this game.
It's, I just can't get my mind around the coyotes being a minus one 75 favorite against
anybody.
So look, if you're going to give me plus one 50 to go against Arizona, even if it's
at the magical mullet arena, I'm going to take it and just hope that the gap between
these two teams, it doesn't look that large.
And when you take these guys off and we should have some, some spirited efforts from players
like you said, F and a say you, you max, dummy, Connor Murphy, like players that will want
to get traded from Chicago.
So I'll take the black Hawks in Arizona.
I like it.
I'll be rooting against you because I need the Hawks to start losing.
I need them to lose this game.
I need them to finish dead last.
So please win Arizona.
Come on out and do it.
And the one, there's a couple of player props.
I think Barrett Hayden is going to remain really interesting.
He's been really good lately with Keller and Schmaltz on the top line there.
That line's been absolutely dominant.
So if Barrett and Hayden point is still around plus 100 minus 110, which is what it was versus
the preds, I guess it should, you'd think it would drop to about minus 120.
But anyways, I think that's a strong play.
And if you're on a site, maybe with some single game parlay options for points, I think parlaying
parts of that line is a fun option as well.
It's a good way to end it.
Chicago Blackhawks.
And like I said, if you wanted to dump their dive with a round robinar parlay, it would
be Habs Hawks.
Maybe a look at, well, the Columbus Blue Jackets, and then maybe the aisles or the kings, if
you want to keep it as a plus money thing, the lightning, if you want to anchor it with
a favorite, that would be my suggestion.
Anyways, with that for Nick Martin, I'm Michael Lee Buff.
Thank you for listening to another episode of Line Change.
Be sure to check us out on the Action Network pod as we break down the trade deadline.
Look ahead to some futures as we head down the stretch.
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That's us until Thursday.
Until then, best of luck with all your bets.
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