Nobody wins. Let's everybody win.
This is your climb.
We're in this game.
I'm going to break the puck back.
Let it possible go.
These guys aren't good.
Staring good.
This crowd is going for the bananas.
As they say in hockey, let's do that hockey.
Hello everyone. Welcome back to LineChge.
The NHL Bedding Podcast from the Action Network brought to you by our friends at BetMGEM.
My name is Michael Liboff.
Joining me is always my co-host Nick Martin and Nick.
The also break is in the rear view mirror.
It's time to head down the stretch.
Although I will say with the NHL scheduled buys, the slates coming up are very wonky,
including Tuesday night. It's only six games.
We did both manage to find an underdog.
As always, we kicked things off in that regard.
I'll go first.
The San Jose Sharks are plus 2.25 in Tampa Bay.
I'd like the spot more than anything.
I shouldn't say that actually.
San Jose, we've set it a bunch this season.
They've actually been all right in terms of their process this season.
It's just talent.
The poor goal tending has done them in.
That's what you'd expect out of a team that is expected to be in the lottery.
With some of the best odds in the lottery, they just traded away Eric Carlson's defense partner Jacob Magna.
This team is going to be stripped down pretty soon.
That said, Tampa is playing Florida Monday night.
It's not really the fatigue factor here because you're coming out of a break.
You can make the argument that it's better to have played the game the night before
and be coming off of this long break out of the off-star game.
But Tampa is playing Florida.
It's a big rivalry game on Monday night for them.
They get out of the break.
They come back with a bang and then they're playing an out-of-conference lottery-bound
team.
What we said about this Tampa Lightning team, and we'll say a lot about them.
The Leafs, the Rangers, may be coming down the stretch here is that there's going to be
nights where they're going to pace themselves.
You could catch them sleeping here.
Yeah, I think it's the Sharks are nothing just because of how competitive they have
been.
But I would also note, I think it'll be interesting to see how Tampa plays tonight.
Like if they played a stinker tonight, you'd have to think maybe that makes this a little
less enticing because if they bring their best effort, the Sharks probably aren't finding
away.
And to talk about that trade quickly, especially because we have such a small slate, I was
really surprised that that was the price because we've seen the overpayment on some of
these defensive defense men.
So I thought great for Seattle.
What are the chances that they're upset they made that deal to the point where like, and
it's a good indicator that they're going to go for it.
I want to see them go for it.
I think it's really fun.
So yeah, like he had been Carl since every day partner.
I know that's probably going to change with knee job coming back, but still, I thought
that was a bit underwhelming.
And yeah, so to go into my favorite underdog pick, I've got the more logical, obvious one.
I don't think it'll even be an underdog pick tomorrow, but with this slate, not a lot of
options.
I like the Colorado Avalanche at Pittsburgh.
We've seen Pittsburgh's process lately.
It has been ugly.
They've been having a really hard time defending, keeping the puck out of their net.
Over what has now become a pretty lengthy sample.
It seems like it's, it's past the point of this team just needing to try and turn it on
and figure it out.
It's gotten pretty ugly.
The abs are going to buy him back.
He was amazing for them last year.
Obviously he might not step in and make a difference in game one, but they're getting a
lot healthier and I think they're going to roll.
I still fully believe in the avalanche.
So I think that's just one where they shouldn't be minus 105 where they are right now.
They should be minus 120.
And I like the value with backing such a strong avalanche side versus a Penn's team that's
really struggled.
Yeah, save my thoughts on avalanche and penguins till the end.
A little spoiler there.
With that, we'll look at the remaining games on the board.
Like I said, it's only six games.
Let's talk about the, we'll talk about the Islanders and the crack.
It's a pick them.
It's at UBS Arena on Long Island.
It's both Horvets home debut for the Islanders.
It's the crackers first game back from the break.
The Islanders are playing on Monday night.
So the Rust versus Rest narrative goes into play there.
Simeon Varlamov is starting on Monday night in Philadelphia for the Islanders.
So it'll be Sorokin.
The Islanders should have a pretty big edge in goal.
And Matty Beniers has been hurt.
So we'll see what his status is coming out of the break as well.
The Islanders are in a funny spot for this game because they really need to win on Monday
night.
They'll fancy themselves in the playoff chase.
I don't think the gap between them and the penguins is insurmountable at all.
I don't even know if the penguins are the team.
They're going to be competing with at the end if they're in it.
It could be Florida or Buffalo or whoever.
But it all starts on Monday night against the Flyers.
And a dud on Monday night, then coming home to a crowd that will probably be deflated,
could be a tricky spot against a very polished crack in team.
I'm interested to see where this line goes because the market has plenty of love for Seattle
and the line.
Man, I got to go back one day and check to see how often the line has moved 20 cents
or more against the Islanders this season.
And obviously, Horbette could change that calculus a little bit because he does.
The Islanders, you know, funny kind of wrinkle to their story this season.
They are one of the better teams in terms of five on five gold differential.
They just have the worst power play in the league.
And they just don't that five on five gold differential comes down to their goal tending
being elite.
So Horbette gives them a little bit more margin for Aaron, both of those regards.
And how much of an impact that has is what's going to determine how far they go.
I think if the Islanders end up as a dog, I'll bet them.
Once again, just depending on how they look on Monday night, but right now it's a wait
and see.
Yeah, I agree.
I think it's a wait and see.
Nothing really caught my eye on this matchup.
I will be in the building though.
So just once again, adjust to your numbers accordingly there.
Vegas is a even money underdog on the road in Nashville.
Preds are minus one 20.
The over under here is six.
I actually, I thought about this game a lot.
Of all the games that came out and the ones that I didn't have like a pretty quick, I'm
going to be betting this team thought on Vegas.
The more I thought about the more I started to like Vegas here, I know that they're banged
up and I know that they're, you know, they'll be without Mark Stone.
But that is the team probably of all playoff contenders, teams chasing a spot that needed
the break the most.
I think that that team should come out of the break a little bit better than they went
in, whether that's enough to keep pace in the Pacific Division.
I don't think it's going to be the case.
I think that they're going to be in a more of a playoff race and a divisional race.
But this predator's team to me just still is not good enough and they're so reliant
on the goalie and he's a great goalie.
Of course, you sorrows.
I think the more and more I think about the more and more I like Vegas in the spot.
Yeah, I think it's a really, really interesting one in terms of just being a fan of the game,
seeing where this playoff race is going to go because Nashville are kind of just hanging
around.
If they win this one in regulation, they're right there.
And Vegas, the injury situation is actually better than it has been, which I think is
a pretty big note to defend them with.
Stone being out like for a long period, it's drawing a ton of headlines.
But I think people are forgetting that in December and early January, the situation was
like comical.
If there's five, six regular NHLers out that were really useful, like Shathiad or Patrangelo,
a lot of key guys coupled with that.
So it's actually better than it has been.
I'm just really excited to see if they can start to turn it around.
They looked so good as a unit early on.
So I think it's one like kind of coming out of the all-star break.
It just seems like a bit of a guessing game to start to try to think about like where Vegas
is about to go.
So it just seems like one that's going to be really interesting to see and kind of possibly
an indicator of like if they're going to turn it around, if they're going to figure it out,
where that playoff race is going.
And if the preds are going to sneak in there, I'm hoping they don't.
I have some futures in on them missing that are, I thought, were once going to be a cakewalk.
And now they're just making it close enough that it's interesting.
So yeah, I think it's going to be a really good game and a fun spot to watch, but I didn't
really see a lot of betting value.
We'll talk about the Knights next game on our next podcast from Wednesday into Thursday,
but they play Nashville and the Minnesota are their first teams, first two games out of
the break.
I think like you said, it is a guessing game, but I think if you guess right here, you could
get paid off on Vegas a little bit.
There'll be a decent dog against Minnesota.
Then they host a couple of also rans and then it's the Tampa Bay.
So if you do think this is a goodbye low opportunity on Vegas and you read into that like getting
they are healthier and they should turn it around and play closer to at least closer
to the team we saw in the beginning, you could get paid off.
So I think I might take that stand here on Vegas as we come out of the break.
The ducks and hawks will be the last one we talked about before we get to our top shelf
bets, our favorite bets for Tuesday, February 7th.
I got nothing here.
Ducks are plus one 10 on the road.
The hawks are minus 130 at home.
The total is at six and a half.
I think if you're going to the game and you're just like, I need to have action.
I would just bet whatever team's the underdog.
Yeah, that's probably fair.
Maybe the ducks playing tonight helps in this spot.
I don't know.
It's just, yeah, I'm not really interested in that one and no prices jumped out.
All right.
Actually, before we get to our best bets, let's talk Wednesday.
There are two games.
Vancouver is in Manhattan.
They're playing the Rangers who are playing on Monday night as well.
So not a back-to-back for the Rangers, but they'll have a game under their belt.
The wild and stars that will be there, both their first games back from the break.
So it's tight.
Just, excuse me, Dallas actually played Monday night.
Both of those teams will actually play Monday night.
So there's no scheduled spot.
I got nothing here.
I can't, maybe you get like a crazy effort from Vancouver because of the trade.
They got shaken up a little bit, but they're playing Horvath the next night.
It's pretty ugly on Wednesday night.
Yeah, New York have been playing quite well.
We know, I don't know.
It's one of those ones you know the price is going to be insane.
It's probably minus 260.
So I don't even know how to cap it.
I look at it.
They're going to get Shastirkin.
Shastirkin's playing, Halak's playing, and then they're going to go with the things Shastirkin
on Wednesday night.
Right.
Yeah, and it was definitely disappointing looking at that slate after seeing the start
this week.
It feels like it's a bit of momentum lost for the NHL to come out of the All-Star break
and coupled with these slates.
Yeah.
It's definitely not really enticing.
Yeah, their decision to put the buy and the All-Star break, like mesh them together.
I don't think it's going to pay off here.
Yes.
You would think that would come during football season, but I don't know.
Yeah.
They wouldn't think about that.
No, they don't.
All right.
So, you know, with that enthusiastic endorsement of Wednesday's two games late, let's just
talk about our favorite bets on Tuesday night.
Top shelf where Mama lines the cookies.
I said it in the beginning.
It kind of tees a little bit.
I like the avalanche.
I think that they will end up as the favorite against Pittsburgh, and I don't mind it as
high as minus 125.
Colorado is coming.
Like they are getting healthy.
They're playing well.
He just comes back.
Like you said, bone by arms back.
They sprinkled in some depth with Matt Nieto up front.
I think he's actually a good beast for them just to kind of buy time until the rest of
the bodies get there.
And they were playing so well going down into the All-Star break.
Whereas this Penguins team, they went on that 15, 3 and 3 rip.
If they started slow, they went on their annual holiday time run where they put their
themselves in a comfortable spot.
And since then, they've been bad.
So they've had two really poor stretches.
They've had one really good stretch.
I think that this team is closer to mediocre than good.
And their goal tending right now is a huge concern.
And I think one to kind of talk about the implications of this Bo Horvett trade, the
Islanders make that move.
And Pete Jensen, who we co-host a Monday show with on NHL.com with one of the co-hosts,
asks about if Horvett gives the Islanders any value to make the playoffs.
And they're like around three to one.
And I think the reason I actually liked the Yes bet is that it's more a bet against the
Penguins I think than anything else.
That I think that this team shouldn't be odds on to make the playoffs right now.
It should be closer to a coin flip or whatever.
I just don't think that they're good enough to absorb the adversity of losing Tristan
Jari and having Casey to Smith this form go completely out the window.
Their depth up front is not great.
So this is a team that I'm happy to bet against.
And they're getting too much respect because they are the Pittsburgh Penguins.
So I think that this team is a fade until further notice.
And the one thing about that trade as well is like the Penguins have a big need up front.
They need to get deeper scoring wise and just their forward ranks need to get deeper.
Losing Jari means that they now also have to trade for goalie basically.
They need to get a goalie in to save them.
They can't do what they did last year.
Imagine the Penguins going into the playoffs and Dustin Tokarski would be getting minutes.
You can't do that after what happened last year.
So they're going to have to spend their capital which they don't have much on on a goalie
rather than a forward now.
So it's just like this team.
There's a lot that could go wrong for this team.
I could see it being really ugly for Pittsburgh the second half and coming out of the gates,
playing the Colorado Avalanche is not what I think they wanted to have.
Yeah, I like the no on the Penguins.
I didn't like the yes on the Islanders.
I'm sure you will let me know about that if I'm wrong because I just think it's too competitive
with the other teams.
I can get in.
I still think Florida will make it really close.
Buffalo are in there despite the tough schedule.
I would love to not see the capitals drop out.
But that's definitely a possibility.
But there's enough teams in the mix that it scares me.
But that works towards the Penguins point for sure.
So yeah, I like that look as well.
And your best bet we're going back to our new favorite team, a team that we've completely
turned the tables on here.
I think it has more to do with their opponent than anything else though.
Yes.
And this one I'll give an asterisk because the lines have already moved so much.
So I like the Edmonton Oilers to win in regulation.
It's going to be such a chalky play.
I bet the standard Moneyline gets to even minus 180 by tomorrow.
But their process has looked so much better.
They had the second best expected goals against per 60 in January.
This is a team that traditionally has fought through fairly shaky defense to play and still
gotten by.
I know the Campbell situation is still a little concerning in goal, not really compared to
what Detroit has.
But everything looks a lot better.
Like I'm starting to think I actually posted a futures article with action on them winning
the Western Conference at 8 to 1, which I think is a really solid look right now, just
because the West looks so bad that the path is going to be excellent.
And I actually think now, despite the fact that I've always kind of talked shit about
them being flawed, there are less flawed than most of the other sides.
And then they're going to be playing McDavid and dry settled crazy minutes like they did
last year and just riding their coattails.
So they'll still be an underdog if they get into a series with a healthy avalanche team.
But I think the price is there to back them.
Because I think their chances of getting to that West final are so high.
You could say they're probably right there with any team in the league in terms of getting
to the final four, just because of what the path is going to be and the fact that they
now actually look pretty well rounded.
So it's a bit of a scary spot coming out of the break.
But I still like it.
It's just I have some of you guys informed that can take advantage of Detroit and they're
looking so much sharper in all areas of the ice.
So I like a play backing them to win this one in regulation.
Yeah, I'm with you.
I think they make a good parlay piece too on Tuesday night.
If you just want to back back the money line.
One thing I think is worth noting about kind of that bigger picture outlook on the Oilers,
one thing that's going to help them.
I think that they're going to win the division.
I would actually make them favorite in the Pacific.
For sure.
But that was the other half of it.
Yeah.
And the thing that I think is going to help them is Colorado catching on here and not
finishing in that wild card spot.
So like you're not going to have a situation where Edmonton wins Pacific division and has
to deal with Colorado and round one.
Or even finishes second and the Pacific.
Finish the second.
That's the thing that's going to be interesting about that race is there's such a solid chance
that finishing second is perfectly fine.
Yeah.
That's probably not going to mean any kind of actually like mailing it in.
Like I am not saying teams are going to look at that and be like, okay, let's lose tonight.
But it's just an interesting note.
If you're talking about like letting guys sit with lingering injuries and that sort of
thing because if you're Edmonton and they have such a soft schedule coming up, they have
two weeks of like they realistically should win five of the next six or it's like somewhat
of a disappointment.
So yeah, if you're like, this is a great time to get some separation and start trying to
play dry side on like David less minutes, letting guys rest when they need it and that
sort of thing heading into the stretch of what will hopefully be a big run.
I'm starting to believe in it a little bit.
Yeah, I am too.
And they're also a team that we talked about their improvement on defense.
They should only get better because they should be acquiring some help at least.
That trades, yeah, would have looked pretty good for them.
Yeah, it's to get another body.
Yeah, it's the I think I mean, not to get off the rails here on a Jacob Magnatrade and
we barely talked about the Bohor Batch rate.
So it would be funny if we spent all this time on Magnat, but I do wonder if the fourth
round pick, they just did that's all they wanted because he's got a second year and
the injury concerns.
But yeah, crazy low price for a very effective player who makes them better and would have
definitely helped.
Edmonton, I wonder if it just means that they're looking at a bigger fish, maybe like
Jacob Chick-Rin or something to bolster that blue line.
All right, that does it for this truncated episode and truncated slate of hockey online
change, the NHL betting podcast brought to you by BetMGM, our underdogs, the sharks and
avalanche, although as Nick noted, the avalanche will likely be the favorite by the time.
You listen to this on Tuesday morning.
My favorite bet is the avalanche.
I don't mind them as a favorite on the road in Pittsburgh.
Nick is backing Edmonton in regulation.
We will be back on Wednesday night to preview Thursday's slight until then.
Pridik Martin, Michael Eboff, best of luck with all your best.
Action Network reminds you, please gamble responsibly.
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