Nobody wins. Let's everybody win.
This is your climb.
We're in this game.
I'm going to break the puck back.
Let it possible go.
These guys aren't good.
Staring good.
This crowd is going for the bananas.
As they say in hockey, let's do that hockey.
Hello everyone. Welcome back to Line Change,
the NHL betting podcast for the action network
presented to you by our friends at BetMGM.
My name is Michael Lee Buff joining me.
As always, we'll be my co-host and colleague and friend Nick
Martin, busy night coming our way on Tuesday in the NHL.
This is March 14th, 12 games on the docket,
but we will start with the headliner, the clear headliner.
We always start with our favorite underdogs,
and you're not keeping me up.
The Arizona Coyotes right now are plus 190 hosting
the Calgary Flames minus 225.
At the Mullah Arena, the over under 6 and 1-1-2.
Arizona is 17 and 14 at home this season.
If you bet $100 on them every time they played at home,
you'd be up a ridiculous $1,310 per action labs.
That is the best ROI in the NHL by a wide margin.
The historic Boston Bruins are second.
They would have won you $582 as an 18.2% ROI.
The Coyotes, 42.3% ROI at home this season.
And they're just playing hard.
They're making like miserable, and the Flames are a team
that because of their finishing talent,
or they should say their lack of finishing talent,
and their propensity for playing these coin flip games
makes it really dangerous against Carl Vijmalka
and the Arizona Coyotes.
Vijmalka, of course, would be the better starting option
for Arizona, should he go.
But I like it either way.
And I'm going to flip to you real quick for some trivia.
So it's Arizona's the best bet at home this season.
Boston's second.
Do you know who the third best team is by ROI?
I do know what.
You want to take a quick guess?
No one's really coming to mind.
I think this team would probably be,
so we've already eliminated two, Arizona and Boston.
This team would probably be 30th on year,
or maybe like 26th on the teams you'd guess.
It's got to be someone with some bizarre splits.
And admittedly, I'm someone who does not track this stuff
as part of my process.
But yes, who is it?
Montreal.
Oh, OK, yeah, that makes sense.
I feel like early on they were scrapping out
some wins at home.
Yeah.
But they're nowhere near our coyotes.
So for me, the underdog Arizona, their plus 190.
What about you?
I'll give an honorable shout out,
since I feel like we won't track back to this game,
that I'll keep an eye on Bezmalka's saves.
I was kind of mad because I always
just think the Flames opponent's goal tender save
problem is such a good bet, especially when, like you say,
it's a good chance that Arizona will hang around
and keep the game close.
So then the flames keep pressing.
We saw that last time they played in Arizona.
I think they had like 50 something shots.
So that's kind of the way I think this matchup goes a lot.
I was kicking myself.
I wrote an article on this Friday,
summarized by saying I wouldn't play Gibson save
past 33 and a half.
The odds maker surprised me, made it 35 and a half.
Didn't matter.
Still cash because that's just it seems like once it's
at a point where you're actually projecting for 45 saves,
they're not going to move in anywhere close to that.
So I think this is one I'll keep an eye on that play for.
Before I get into my underdog, which I really
like the Detroit Red Wings at Nashville,
I think that the number we're getting here is excellent.
These teams are not that far apart.
I think I can honestly say, if they were to play a seven game
series starting tomorrow, I might just rate my picks
straight up would probably just be Nash or Detroit
to win this game, especially with the bodies out of the lineup
for the Predators.
Detroit stabilized to an extent.
I think that a good weekend, obviously,
in those two Boston games, they've got more top guys playing
at a higher level.
I think the depth down the roster,
obviously, Nashville's depth's getting pretty thin with the trades
they made and with the guys that are out of the lineup.
So this is just not a game that I think
should be as widely priced as it is.
And I think it's almost like a square underdog,
but I'm like, who's batting the Predators at this price at home?
So I think it's a good play on Detroit.
I think you can make an argument
that when you look at the mushy middle,
I guess the standings might bear this out with these two teams
when they finish up the season that they might be the two teams
that are closest to each other when you take out
the extremes at the top and the bottom
and then find a median NHL team.
It could be like these two teams to me, just.
They're both heavily flawed.
They both, yeah, like you said, they're both heavily flawed,
but they have any really identical record.
The process looks similar.
Detroit's actual roster for this game is arguably better
with the guys out of the roster or on the lineup for Nashville.
So I was pretty surprised at how wide this one opened
and I think it's definitely a good bet.
So Red Wings and Coyotes.
And as our underdog, let's look at the big board now.
The Tambay Lightning are plus 110 in Jersey.
Take on the Devils.
New Jersey's minus 130, the over under six and a half.
The Devils have won three in a row.
They're tied on points with Carolina.
At the top of Metro, Carolina has a game in hand.
The Canes have lost two in a row.
So this is a real race.
Meanwhile, for the Lightning, you can, I mean,
they're four points back of Toronto,
but they played two more games and, you know,
like we've been saying, this whole last two or three months.
It's just, it's such a weird situation to be in
as a professional sports team where
you've known your playoff opponent for so long
and you've just been chocking for home ice
to prepare for that opponent.
But the Lightning have been, you know, pedestrian, I guess.
I thought their effort against Winnipeg was fine.
Probably a little unlucky not to tie that one up.
They hit up a couple posts, but still three, five
and two over the last 10.
I think they're kind of coming out of their slump.
They're, you know, annual malaise as they've,
they're 15 games away from the end of their regular season.
The Devils, of course, are the better team in this matchup,
top to bottom and a tier above.
I think the price is probably right in terms of the money line,
but you have a play on the total.
Yeah, I agree.
I think for me, the overs are very reasonable play
and I lean Devils because it's just,
Tampa's been struggling to defend for so long
that it's hard for me to see how this New Jersey attack
is not going to raise some serious issues for them.
So I think it could be one where they just could have
to try to outscore what is inevitably going to be
like a three or four spot from the Devils, I think.
So yeah, I've a strong leaving with the over for sure
and New Jersey as a side.
The Winnipeg Jets, two huge results in the Florida two step
to kind of buy themselves some big time breathing room
in the playoff race in the Western Conference.
I mean, perfect timing by me.
I was talking about how the flames,
if you're going to bet Calgary and you want it to bet them
to get into the playoffs, you might as well just take them
to win the Stanley Cup because if they do that,
they'd be in good form.
That means the goaltending price sorted itself out,
et cetera, et cetera.
And then Winnipeg kind of stomps those hopes out
with some gutsy performances.
There are five on five numbers.
Recently have been, they've been all right,
like above average, except they're just not scoring enough
and the goaltending has struggled a little bit.
Hellebuck seems to have stabilized
with a couple of dandy performances in Florida back to back.
I actually think that they are worth a bet here
against Carolina.
I know that the hurricanes continue to just pump a ton
of rubber and tilt the ice in the right direction,
but the goaltending situation for this matchup,
as long as it's Hellebuck, of course,
it's the type of situation we'll see
with Carolina over and over again,
where the goaltending disparity and Kachekov was fine,
I thought, in his first go-around,
and whether it's him or Anderson,
it just feels like the gap is wide enough.
Hellebuck's in good enough form
and the Jets are a competent team.
This isn't Carolina versus Montreal or something,
we're just like, okay, you just gotta pray
that Montembeau stands on his head and makes 57 saves.
This is probably a much more reasonable ask
with a team with Winnipeg scoring capability.
So they should be a clinical offense with their scores.
I'm banking on that at a long number.
So plus 170 on the road for the Jets,
who should be full of confidence wrapping up
the southeastern portion of their schedule.
Yeah, I'm a little scared.
I kind of in seeing it the other way.
I know Carolina cannot score right now,
they scored one goal in last three games.
But in this spot, three game losing streak,
they've been so dominant at home,
there should be a full string outside of Svechnikov,
their decores, so much better, one through six.
I think it's one where I'm not willing
to take a shot with the Jets.
Just, I think Carolina, it could be an interesting spot
to go over to the Hellebuck Save prop too,
because I think this is gonna be a really strong game
from the Keynes.
I've had Devil's game, it's in breakdowns,
but it could have looked better, I think.
I'm not necessarily worried that Carolina's about
to go on a legitimate ride.
No, not at all.
I just think the number is long enough on a solid team
with a great goalie, and gets a team that just does this,
with these scoring woes.
I guess better now for Carolina than in a couple weeks in April.
Let's talk about the Knights and Flyers next.
Vegas is minus 190 on the road.
Philly plus 160 at home, the over under six.
The Flyers off the ice,
making all the headlines in the NHL
with some general manager news, Danny Brier,
is in Chuck Fletcher's out,
and I guess you can look at it as a lot of players
will be playing starting now for their jobs,
and they'll play hard,
and they've been out of the playoff picture for so long,
and it's John Tortorella, coach team.
But I think the big thing here is just Vegas's
goal-tending situation is just such a mess.
Jonathan Quick, by the way, we ragged on him.
We got to give him a little credit.
He's been pretty good for Vegas.
He had a great week since the last time we made that.
So I'll happily wear that.
Yeah, but still.
Yeah, I agree.
And I...
For sure, and he might not even play this one.
Yeah, and I think it's a pretty reasonable spot to back Philly.
We'll see. I'm hoping money pours in on Vegas.
They were lucky. I had them cover the puck line Sunday,
actually, which is a pretty outrageous cover.
So I'll take that,
but I didn't think it was their best game by any means.
It seems like a bit of a sell-high spot for me,
especially if money comes pouring in on them.
If it's hard versus either of those goalies,
that's such a mismatch.
Philly probably will find a way to make it competitive.
So I actually think it could be a really interesting spot
to consider a fliers, but...
Yeah, I don't hate it at all.
It's...
The Knights are going to be hilarious to bet down the stretch.
It's...
There's such a high ceiling, low floor team.
So many different outcomes, I think.
You can win anytime they step on the ice.
And...
Minus 190 is just too much with the state of the roster right now.
Montreal is in Pittsburgh.
The Penguins are 7-1-1 in their last nine,
but they've had a couple ugly losses.
The two losses were really ugly.
So I think that's why so much focus on the losses,
rather than the win.
Of course, two of the wins just came this weekend
since we last talked to.
So that skews things a little bit.
But I still just don't think that Pittsburgh is a team
you can lay, no matter who it is,
this kind of juice with minus 340,
hosting Montreal who will give you the honest effort.
They...
If Sam...
I mean, even Alan, the two goalies are good enough
that with the way Tristan Jari has been...
Kind of just all his performances has been all over the map.
Since returning from injury, it's just way too dangerous.
So the Habs are interesting, I think, at the price,
but I like a couple other underdog's on the slate more.
So I'll just pass.
Yeah, I think it...
For me, it pens or nothing,
but the pricing is beginning a little too wide.
And they've cleaned up their game to extend.
Like, without the Rangers performance,
they were catching the Rangers in a good spot,
but they only give up one odd man rush,
which I thought was pretty interesting,
and has been kind of one of their greatest flaws.
Like, it looked really sharp,
and it's such a big game for them to Montreal
in such a good spot with them playing tonight
versus Colorado.
So...
Right.
Yeah, I feel like I'd expect them to win this game.
Yeah, and I really am interested to see how these last,
you know, 17 games for Pittsburgh Go,
because so much has been made about their defensive lapses
that they could just maybe follow,
like the Islanders lead a little bit
and just revert back to playing a very neutral zone,
trappy kind of style and low event
and just isolate the goalie,
especially Ken in that situation.
But...
Right.
And like to be fair to them,
because last year,
like under Sullivan,
even the last couple of years,
they've actually been pretty good defensively.
Yeah, that's...
At least the offensive core,
the last two months has been like a bottom point
for like what we've seen for so long.
And even in like last year,
if you remember, they were gaining like a little traction
as like a team that could maybe do something in the playoffs
and that people thought was pretty legitimate.
And then they go into the series with New York
and play what was a pretty damn good seven game loss.
Like I think that'd be,
I don't like the penguins.
I hate the penguins.
They've ruined the caps.
Like I might have watched three cup victories without them,
but they were pretty damn unlucky to lose that series.
And especially when you consider who they had playing in goal,
I think it would be a pretty valid point
to say that they were probably the better team.
I think most neutral observers would agree,
the analytics agreed by a mile.
That was one of the biggest gaps ever by expected goals
for a team to lose in the playoffs.
So my point here is kind of just that a lot of the roster
is still there and it was almost surprising
how bad they were defensively.
I still think the bottom six is gonna be bad
compared to any top teams in the East.
Like I don't see,
you know how that's not gonna be a concern
and maybe kind of puts a ceiling on them.
But yeah, I think that's like a fair note
to say that even though it had been bad for so long,
this decores, I guess, proven that maybe
that could be a bottom point.
Yeah, and I think that's why it's been so surprising
why we keep talking about the defensive issues is like,
this team was so, you can like set your clock to them
being just like a solid five on five defensive team
under Sullivan for the past couple of seasons
and all of a sudden it just disappeared.
And the only difference is what, you know, John Marino
and Mathis and left, Petrie comes in
and it just didn't look right.
It didn't look, they didn't look themselves
for a long part of the season.
They did have that hot streak in November and December.
Then they went on another cold streak.
So who knows how this thing ends up,
but it does feel a little bit like last season too
because that last season followed a very similar pattern
with Pittsburgh where they sluggish, got hot.
Like I think they went like 17, three and three
in that run as well.
And it was almost like identical to the one
they went through through the holidays this year.
Then they had their little malaise
and there was no pressure on them from behind.
And then got their act together before the playoffs
and like you said, they were the better team
and just about everything that could go wrong.
I went wrong for them in that series against the Rangers
when Louis Dominguez playing six games of seven.
That's a big problem.
But yeah, so I guess I just have them circled, I think still
because they, so they play the Canadians,
then they play the Rangers twice, two more times.
So they're playing the Rangers three times in seven days.
If the Penguins do take care of business against Montreal
and then sweep the Rangers and regulation over these next
two games and what the way the two teams are trending,
like that's not outside the realm of possibilities here.
Like all of a sudden the race for third of the Metro
comes alive.
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The Boston Bruins played two games against Detroit Red Wings.
This weekend they won one, they lost one,
they were behind in both,
which constitutes a crisis with the way the things are going
with the Bruins this season,
and they came up that lost two Edmonton as well.
So there in a, maybe a get right spot,
despite the fact that there,
one and two in their last three,
in Chicago, minus four, 10, the Bruins are,
the Blackhawks plus three, 30, and the over under is six.
Maybe some goal score props or something.
I think the two of us are way for Tyler Bertuzzi
to find his footing a little bit in terms of production
with the Bruins, so is that where you're looking?
I know, I'm gonna go.
I lost on that twice on the weekend,
and I actually thought the second game,
he was kind of invisible, so I'm like, screw that.
I don't even think he's that great to begin with.
So I think, even though I'll say this,
he'll actually do something,
but I feel like this is what we talked about
with like not just slamming in props,
waiting for them to hit.
If he doesn't show enough, like, whatever,
I can love with it if he doesn't do anything.
That second line of Chicago,
I'll give him a shout out, is unreal right now.
Like they're just killing it.
The radish unit, Gutman is playing really good hockey.
So.
Like, he's hurt, though, right?
Gutman just, yeah.
That's what happened.
Okay, I saw that pop up today,
like, and I was like, oh, cause I was kind of excited
about him, and then I saw it.
Yeah, I know that.
And I was thinking about it.
And on my timeline, his name popped up with an injury.
Like, literally, as I was thinking about him.
It's one of those weird moments in life.
Yes, never thought I got an injury would be wrong.
Exactly.
But that line's been unreal.
So it's like, it's fair to say.
Yeah, I don't, it's the Black Hawks, man.
I think by the end of the season,
they're gonna like, I saw a lineup with a forward group
of less than like 300 NHL games.
Well, I need them to finish Dead Last, so.
You might get it, you might get it in a runaway, I think.
Maybe close.
It's a good fight for Dead Last right now.
Yeah.
All right, let's talk Dallas and Canucks now.
Stars are minus 140 on the road.
Vancouver plus 120 and they're playing good hockey.
The over under is six.
I don't know where this line would be like two weeks ago.
I think you might have seen like stars
minus like 165 or something,
but the Canucks are in good form.
I'm gonna probably pass here,
but you were thinking about it.
I'm thinking about the Canucks.
I was kind of embarrassed.
I thought the sins were gonna take Saturday
pretty much with my take being that like,
how is this game priced this evenly?
And then Vancouver just kind of slapped them.
So, and they've been really good.
Like I actually respect the middle of bed
or anything when we talk about like the price change.
One of the biggest differences,
Damco was a top five goalie last year.
So he was part of the reason they had that whole turn around
under, I shouldn't even say parties,
pretty much the main reason they turned it around
under Bruce and went on that tear.
And now Damco's playing so good again.
And it's not like this is just some guy
playing really good.
Like this was an elite goaltender
who struggled at the beginning of the year
through what everyone knew was an injury.
He kind of pinned his struggles entirely on that
in some interviews.
And he's kind of backing that talk up
because now he's playing really good again.
So I think that does change the way you have to like
view Vancouver when they go from being like a team
that was getting some of the least worst net mining this year.
And like now they're getting some of the best
goaltending in the entire league.
And maybe that could actually continue moving forward.
And I know like their defensive environment is horrible.
It's tough to be a goaltender on that team.
But yeah, it does seem like for me,
it's honestly the Canucks are nothing
that the stars are playing tonight in Seattle.
They will probably be going with Edinger in that game.
Yeah, he's confirmed now.
Okay, so they'll be going with Matt Murray in this game.
And Murray's been respectable.
Good AHL numbers looked solid in his small NHL sample,
but I still think it's just a spot
where you're going with the Canucks or nothing,
especially, and I think that's a good note, especially
because I think the stars will be the public,
the popular public play and kind of the luck
where a lot of people are like,
why would this not be just a smash bot for Dallas?
The blue jackets and sharks last place in the East
against last place in the West,
somehow San Jose has found its way
all the way to the bottom here.
The jackets are plus 135.
The San Jose sharks right now.
In their current form are a minus 155 favorite.
That's crazy, I think.
The over under six and a half, it's an easy pass,
but a lot of times when I say either on this show
or one or go, which the soccer show I host for action at,
where like I want to meet the person
who's betting San Jose sharks minus 155 right now.
I don't mean that as a slight.
I actually do.
I want to hear it out and because, you know,
there's going to be someone out there
who's maybe a professional gambler
and who has an edge on San Jose.
And like I just would like to hear it, right?
Or meet that person.
So that's my take on the game.
It's just nothing for me.
What about you?
Yeah, I think this is a good spot
to maybe go with some goalscores, odds.
Oh, and I mean, it's easy to make the case
for any of them considering it's Elvis for Columbus
with that defense and could be Capo Kakin.
And he rested Saturday in favor of Rimer
who didn't have such a great night.
And the two that I'm kind of eyeing
are Eckland or Zetterland with San Jose.
They're on the top line now, top power play unit.
This is all very price dependent.
So those are kind of the two I have my eye on looking
for hopefully around plus 350 on either.
That's going to be a wild game.
And now we got to talk about the Islanders
on a West Coast swing through California here.
Usually the Islanders in my lifetime,
they go out West through California early in the year.
I can distinctly remember them losing opening night
against Arizona Coyotes or then Phoenix Coyotes
and to kick off the 0607 season.
And they started that year, oh, and three,
because then they got shut up by getting a back off
and then they lost the Kings 4-2 before
getting their first win of the season
against the eventual Stanley Cup champion Ducks.
But now they're going through the California swing
in what is, you know, must win spots for them.
I mean, not every game individually,
but you got to come out ahead on the trip,
the three game trip, two against the Sharks and Ducks.
But first it's the Kings in Los Angeles as minus 145.
The Ials are plus 125 in the over under five and a half.
The Islanders have just completely changed how they play.
I don't think people realized how open the Islanders
were playing through the first 45 to 55 games of the season.
They were giving up a ton, they were creating a lot
of chances the other way and it was just back and forth.
And that is God now and we're starting to hear
the boring Islanders talk again, which is fine, go for it.
But it is an absolutely seismic shift
when you consider where their numbers were
to where they are now.
Like they're allowing over their last,
I think since the 11 games or so,
it's 1.96 expected goals per 60,
which is best in the league
and their high danger chances against are right up there too.
I think it's them in Carolina basically been trading
the number one spot over the past fortnight or so.
That's just not how they were playing.
I know the reputation is that the Islanders
have been playing this like rigid defensive style
for years, but under the first 45 games under Lambert,
it wasn't that way.
And it's working for them.
Obviously they're still without Matt Barzell.
I think J.G. Peggio will suit up,
which actually does matter here.
Another penalty killer, it kind of takes the burden off
of Horvat, who's been killing penalties instead.
And they'll have Sorokin in goal almost certainly.
So I think it would be Islanders are nothing at the price.
I know Los Angeles has been playing well,
but I think the goaltending edge,
don't think we're gonna be seeing Kevin Fiala,
who's dealing with an injury as well.
So should be a tight, I mean, this one screams to one.
So I don't know.
What do you think?
Yeah, my thoughts were, I kind of just thought pass.
I didn't really see much here to get involved with.
So yeah, that's kind of all I had on that.
I think you kind of summarized down
and just take pretty well and Fiala is a massive loss.
He's been basically generating the most chances,
getting the most shots, creating the most points,
whatever you want to look at.
He's a huge driver for the Kings.
So that is kind of a meaningful loss for Christians.
It's kind of a giant loss.
All right, Top Shelf Betts now,
our favorite Betts for Tuesday, March 14th.
Top Shelf where Mama lines the cookies.
We'll start with you.
We have a slight disagreement on yours.
So we'll go there first.
Caps are plus 145 at Madison Square Garden
and play the Rangers who are minus 170.
The over under six and a half.
Take it away.
Yeah, so it's a bit of an ugly one
considering how favorite the Rangers are.
But my case here kind of revolves around the spot.
I think it's a really good time for New York
to figure it out a little bit.
They've been winning, but I think even Rangers fans would say
it's been pretty ugly.
The process has not looked good.
So that's a bit of a soft sell here.
But they've been completely embarrassed
by the caps twice this season.
There's four nothing in MSG.
And then I think it was six one last month, five one,
whatever it was, it wasn't close.
New York completely just handed them the game.
I don't think that's gonna happen here.
They still should be a spot for Shastirkin.
He's been shining lately.
He's getting back into form.
They have so much more offensive talent.
They've got a power play that should be elite,
whether they, we talked about how I'm not sure.
Like, you know, it's gonna go with taking
Zabinajat off that top unit.
It seems like a waste of like one of the better
power play players in the league.
But still they have so much more talent.
They have a lot of guys moving the needle
in the right direction.
So I could just see this being a game where
maybe it doesn't look like New York.
Completely dominates the game.
But I think the goal tending ability to finish,
I think those are things that are gonna shine through
in this game.
And I like this as a big spot for the Rangers
to kind of make a statement and pull it together
a little bit.
If Ryan Lindgren's out, this team looks very different.
It's really strange because like I think he's a solid
defenseman, but it feels like Adam Fox's game
is so reliant on him.
And I don't know what it is.
In fact, they played so much together for so long now.
Right. The Meca was not working.
Right. Exactly.
I wonder we'll see if that's a definite concern.
I still just look at the town, these games,
what the Rangers are supposed to be,
what the caps current roster is.
And I'm like, are they gonna exploit that?
Well, the caps exploit, they're kind of the flaws
we've seen out of them in the last couple of games.
I don't think so.
I think it's gonna be like a good spot for the Rangers
to kind of get right and have a comfortable win.
The total here is six and a half.
The overs plus money.
So maybe it close at six, but these two teams
have been playing pretty poor defensively
with that Capital's Islanders game non withstanding
where I thought they were really good.
Giving up a lot of chances both ways.
And that makes sense when you consider
what happened to both the rosters at the trade deadline
with the Rangers, it was subtraction by addition
defensively and with the capitals,
it was subtraction by subtraction.
So I think this one could actually go off the rails.
I'm really interested to see Shostarkin,
as I know people are saying he's back.
He played a good solid kind of end to that game
in Montreal and then was really good against Pittsburgh,
or excuse me, against Buffalo in his last start.
So yeah, I would lean towards Washington here,
but I'll probably stay away.
I think the Rangers just four, four and one
in their last nine since they've had to throw things
into flocks to make room for Kane.
They're four, four and one and only one of those wins
has come in regulation.
So I just don't know if they figured things out
and I think the coaching has left a little bit
to be desired as well, just forcing things.
Everything was working well and then I know
that the move blew it up a little bit,
but you could have kept the things
that were really, really working for two years now together
and they haven't done that.
So weird spot.
I mean, they're definitely acclimating.
It's a bit of weird spot, but I do think like the price
is like, there's a realistic possibility
that 10 games from now, we're viewing this
as like a game where it could be like a minus 230.
So I think like we're getting a bit of a number
to try to like, and like the caps right now,
they have no forwards who are, you know,
just gonna drive play and generate like elite looks.
No, they don't need them.
They got Sandeep.
They don't need anybody else.
Yeah, and that's like, I think it's like a,
it's hard to say a sell high spot on the caps
who no one thinks are good, but I almost think
that's what it is where it's like, even the Islanders game,
I think their expected goals was like 2.26
and it didn't seem like that much better of a game
than that realistically.
So I just don't think there's enough guys
that are really just driving play in the right direction.
There's a lot of solid guys,
but I don't think there's enough star power
because that's of an OV really,
you're not looking good in 5 on 5 play.
Power plays, middling.
So there's just not a lot of stuff
that I'm like excited about to do with the team right now.
I think it's the game of the night too,
because you know, Washington can,
whether it's just a hallucination or not,
like play themselves, quote unquote,
back into the playoff mix with the win.
And if the Rangers don't get a point in that game
and then their next two were coming against Pittsburgh,
some alarm bells go off.
So there's, I think in terms of what's at stake
for both teams, it's the game of the night.
Cause I mean, you can say like all lightning devils
or Chet's hurricanes when you,
two really good teams playing each other.
Those are the game of the nights,
but considering both teams have so much at stake here,
I think it's caps and Rangers.
And look at that, the NHL got it right for once.
They are the national televised game on Tuesday night.
New York States.
Yeah, that would, it would be insane.
I don't really know if I think it would happen,
but pens are six back of New York.
I think Pittsburgh wins tomorrow.
Like I said, I think New York wins tomorrow,
but I mean, we can pretty much be shocking
if Pittsburgh didn't win.
And then if New York did lose this,
the pens win those two games later in the week
look pretty interesting.
And you, I mean, I guess you're avoiding,
if you finish third, you're playing Carolina.
Right.
It's not like the baitable,
what is like that much more of an disaster, but.
It's, and they're the Islanders,
if you know, the Islanders, I guess could, you know,
if things really went off the rails at the Rangers,
like make things interesting and throw them
into the wild card spot.
But psychologically, just like falling out of a spot
where you've been in for the entire season.
Yeah. And like it's kind of debatable what is even best
because the New Jersey and Carolina are tied
right now in points.
Yeah. It's the same.
There's really no, I don't think there's a discernible
difference between three and four in the Metro.
There's nothing you're thinking at all.
That's for sure.
I was just saying, none of those options are one
where you're like, this is a slam dunk compared to.
Right. Yeah.
This is not the old Southeast Division
when the Rangers finished six,
then they got to play the Thrashers in the first round
because the Thrashers finished as maybe the worst
number three team in any sports history.
All right. We'll close up with my best bet.
I like the Senators and other big dog.
They're plus one 80 plus 185 in Edmonton.
The Oilers around minus two 15.
The over-under here seven boy,
the goaltending is really scary in this one.
For the Senators, it could be Kevin Band, at least
it could be Matt Sogard, either option, not great.
Sogard has had a couple duds in the past six or seven days
when the Senators really looked like they could be making
a charge and then fell on their face with losses in Chicago
and Vancouver.
This is a tricky spot for Edmonton as well.
They're coming off of a couple of huge games, right?
Like they played in Buffalo, they got the win.
Then they go to Boston, an emotional three, two win
where they gave the Bruins, I think their first loss
in which the Bruins blew a third period lead all season.
Then they lost in Toronto and the McDavid Matthews,
Hockey Night Canada showdown.
A little bit of a letdown spot.
They're also coming home after a long road trip.
Spot wise, not great.
The Senators are team that should have the talent
to punch up well.
The defense should steadily improve as Chikrin
gets integrated and got Sanderson gets more time
under his belt as well.
The offensive firepower there, especially if Jack Campbell
starts, doesn't look that way, but we can cross our fingers
and hope, could give the Oilers some issues.
I think it's just a good price on the Senators
and I'm happy to take it.
Yeah, I agree.
I think it's a really good price with the Sens
to try and exploit some of the Oilers weaknesses.
I think it could be an interesting one too if you want
to take a super long shot on the Sens
parlayed with the over.
If they win, I think it's like 5-3.
So that could be a fun look to get some extra juice.
I mean, if you want to think Kevin Mandelisi's
going to shut out Conor McDavid?
Yeah, exactly.
Or if you want to play some of the Sens props
for their team total, I think those are really good looks
as well.
It should be a really fun game.
So yeah, I think there's just enough concerns with Edmonton
that when you see them facing a really elite offense,
the Sens have been really, really good offensively.
Whereas this trip has started horribly.
Vancouver game was bad.
The Flames game the next night was awful.
But that's kind of been the nut low from what we've seen
from Ottawa for the whole second half of the year.
And even the start, they're consistently
among the leaders for chances generated.
And they just had such a hard time
finishing at the beginning of the year.
But we've made the case a lot.
A lot of people have.
That was pretty shocking considering the names on the board
with Jerusalem, Batherson, Kachuk.
They've got guys that are going to finish.
So if you're going to generate at an elite level,
it's not like that's going to be.
I don't think it's been surprising
that they've started to finish a lot of chances.
It's probably still more of the opposite
that the offense is where it is overall.
And they've got an elite power play too.
So there's a lot of arguments that
suggest they can hang in here.
All right.
I'll do it for this episode of Line Change,
presented by BetemGM.
At the top, we gave our underdogs, pesky Arizona
coyotes, the Detroit Red Wings in Nashville,
and then our best bets, Ottawa Senators in Edmonton
and the New York Rangers against the capitals.
For Nick Martin, I'm like a lead buff.
We will see you again on Wednesday night or Thursday morning.
♪♪
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