Nobody wins. Let's everybody win.
This is your climb.
We're in this game.
I'm going to break the puck back.
Let it possible go.
These guys aren't good.
Staring good.
This crowd is going for the bananas.
As they say in hockey, let's do that hockey.
Hello everyone. Welcome back to line change.
The NHL betting podcast from the action network presented to you by BetMGM.
My name is Michael Eibach joining me.
Just a second.
It's my partner in crime on this podcast, Nick Martin and Nick.
As always, we start the show with as big a bang as possible, our favorite underdogs for
the following slate, which is Tuesday, March the 7th, 2023.
I'll go first.
I feel like I'm going back to the well team that I had no interest in betting for the
first four months of the season.
All of a sudden, I feel like I'm betting them every night.
The Columbus Blue Jackets are plus 250 against Pittsburgh.
I'm sorry to say teams come back down to Earth when they're the worst team of the NHL,
perhaps, but after their cute little 4, 2, and 2 run, they've lost two in a row, so they're
5, 4, and 2.
But this is more about Pittsburgh than anything.
They still are not playing strong defensively over their last 10 games.
They're bottom six in both expected goals against high danger chances allowed at 5 and
5.
Now, they are creating offense, but the margin for error is so thin when you're giving up
so many going the other way that if guys like Gensil Crosby, Malk and Latang have a
tough night at the office and the Jackets finishers, of which they have some.
Johnny Goudrone, Patrick Lyon, Ken Johnson, those kind of guys, if they have a decent
night at the office, there's a path here.
It's plus 250 now.
I'm assuming it's going to get a little bit bigger.
I don't see too many people rushing to bet the Jackets in a game where the Penguins need
to have it, but we've seen Columbus pull these kind of games not too far back.
They've already beaten Toronto, Edmonton, Winnipeg, the Sabres over their last 11 games
or so.
I'll go back to the Jackets here.
It's the price.
There frankly aren't many other underdogs on this schedule that are even remotely interesting,
so it's Columbus for me.
Yeah, I'm to, you know, there aren't many appealing dogs.
This won't even scare me a bit.
I hope Columbus won.
I'd love to see Pittsburgh play this game.
I'm going to go back to the anytime goalscore well as my underdog.
We cashed a good one last pod with Gary on off coming through at north of plus 500.
I think there's two fun ones on this slate that I like.
So the first one is going to be very, very dependent on what the price is.
I think Jacob Verona versus Arizona, he's going to play second line, no power play, which
makes it a little less of a dream, but it is a match up versus the Coyotes and we like
that.
So his last game with Detroit, it was at plus 380.
I think we'll probably see it be about that.
I'd be surprised if they adjusted it much for him getting a better role.
Like I think really when you talk about ice down the line up in the NHL, it doesn't really
matter.
So I'd play Verona at plus 380.
He's such a pure goalscore and it seems like one of the spots where it could work out for
him in his Blues debut.
So I like that.
And then the other one I'm looking to play at about plus 175 if it's there, Jared McCann
of the Kraken.
I thought he was tremendous versus Colorado.
He's been continuing to put a wealth of chances on the net.
He's quietly one of the leaders in the entire league in goals per 60.
So I like that Jared McCann versus the Ducks.
I think that's another fun anytime goalscore prop.
So I like those two on this slate thin of true underdog sides that look playable.
Yeah, usually you can follow our bets in the action network app at line change podcast,
but the app happened to go down on Thursday for a little while.
And that man, I had to log in the guriana bet or not via desktop and I just couldn't find
it on the desktop.
So that's why that one didn't get logged on that one of which I apologize technical difficulties,
but the money's still in your pocket.
So that's what really matters.
Let's look at the big board.
It is a busy night Tuesday to Carolina hurricanes and Montreal Canadians will start there.
And is minus 305 on the road, half plus 255.
The over under six Carolina coming off a drubbing of the Tampa Bay Lightning on Sunday.
I mean, maybe this is like a little bit of a letdown spot, but they need to win games
to keep New Jersey yet at bay in the race for the Metro division.
They're only up two points on the devils.
They do have a game in hand, but yeah, this is pretty easy pass for me.
Yeah, I agree.
I'm not feeding the Keynes right now.
You got me questioning my stance on not going back on them to win the cup for like the sixth
straight year at this time.
So yeah, that was a pretty scary performance for Tampa.
Yeah, there's much else and every and a lot of the games lately have looked like that.
So yeah, the Keynes look pretty good.
The Toronto Maple Leafs are dealing with a little bit of an injury crisis.
They're plus 110 in Jersey.
That was minus 130.
The over under here is six and a half.
The Santa Vares will be out with what they're calling an illness, maybe related to that hit
he took from Tyler Myers, but either way, they just said he's not feeling himself.
And then Ryan O'Reilly broke in finger.
So he's out for quite some time leaving the Leafs all of a sudden pretty thin down the
middle.
Sam Lafferty will be your second line center.
The devils meanwhile are kind of clicked it into gear.
They're coming home.
These teams are coming back east after spending some time at West.
Devils played a wild one at the Molot Arena.
The home yotes almost struck again.
But the devils ended up catching or taking care of business after coyotes came back from
four to down.
I think the devils are in range here for a bet.
I'll expand on it later, but this line looks a little sleepy almost, I would say.
And like they're, I think you and I were saying, they're pricing this one as if Toronto is
fully healthy and on the road.
Yes.
Well, yeah, I think it's a little closer if Toronto's healthy, but I do agree it's still
debt levels are nothing considering this spot.
I didn't really have a lot here.
I could see maybe Toronto playing a better game.
I like their defensive lineup more than what we've seen recently with Will Juggen back
in on the top here, but other than that, I didn't really have a lot of notes.
And I think the other one, Bunting could be an interesting player prop because he's kind
of gobbling up that spot on the top power play unit, which is significant when you look
at how incredibly good that unit is.
So I think if you're going to see some of his numbers, hang around where they have been,
Bunting could be an interesting prop target.
The Tampa Bay Lightning stopped me if you've heard this one before.
They are in a little bit of a rut.
They are struggling.
They don't, they look tired.
They look disinterested.
They look all those things that we say about them every year a couple of times of season.
So right now that's where they are.
Like I said, they got their doors blown off by Carolina and now host Philadelphia in what
looks like a get right spot for the bolts.
They're minus 295 flyers plus 245, the over under six and a half.
John Tortor, like John Tortorella teams, probably not the ones you want to target and
get right spots, but I think it's, you'll find your favorite Tampa bet here and let it rip.
Yeah, I agree.
I think, I mean, I think I've said this a couple of times on the five game win streak and also
said that Tampa is pretty tough to, or five game losing streak, that it's pretty tough
to call bolts games.
But this seems like the get right spot where it's just like even harder to see them letting
down.
And I could see, I know the list of player props we like is getting kind of long, but
I feel like this is a good spot to target Tampa stars to go off because I think like,
you know, they got called out in the savers game.
They sat the third.
Well, the next day they just got absolutely cleaned out by Carolina and that was kind of
a team wide thing.
They're, you know, you're going back to back versus a Keynes team that just allows nothing
and, and we've seen like a couple teams just get absolutely starched and their, their stars
can't get anything going.
So this could be the one where I see like point Kucharov, Stan Coase having a big night.
I think probably elaborate on later, but I think Kucharov shots is probably my favorite
one or maybe two points, but I think we'll see him in point have a really quality game
in this one.
The Buffalo Sabres, they're going to be on the second night of a back to back.
They're playing at home and against Edmonton Monday night, then they'll travel too long
island take on the buff, take on the Islanders.
Sabers are plus 140 Islanders are minus 165.
The over under six and a half.
I'll be in the building.
I think the number looks about right.
Craig Anderson looks the likely starter on Monday night.
So I'm guessing we'll see Eric Connery or UPL, look, peckle, look, look at the Islanders
and Elia Sorokin.
So a little bit of a goal-tending mismatch for the Islanders, a good rest spot as well.
They're playing pretty well too.
They are without Matt Barzell.
It looks like J.G.
Pajoe is back.
The two player props I've circled here are Pierre Engvall as an anytime goal score.
You should get a pretty good number on him considering his totals and the fact that he
was getting the third line minutes on the leaves.
And now we'll be playing on the first line with Bohorbet and Anders Lee for the Islanders.
And then Kyle Palmeri, who the numbers aren't there yet, but it's quietly been really effective
since coming back from injury.
He's got ten goals on the season.
He just scored in their last game against the Red Wings.
And he's taking up Barzell's spot on the first power play.
So he's got four shots against the Red Wings.
He's got seven shots over his last three games, ten over his last four.
And those games were coming against decent defensive teams.
So if you look back at his totals, they might not look great, like the shot totals, but
he had five against the Bruins and then three against the Kings, two against the Jets, one
against the Wild and then four against the Red Wings.
It's when you consider the opposition how this team's trying to play.
They're not bad at all.
And he's playing with Brock Nelson and Zach Parisi on the Islander's second line.
Like I said, he's getting power play time and you're going to get a good number on him.
His number is always up there.
Sometimes north of three to one.
So Paul Marry or Angvall would be the ones I would like here.
Yeah, I like targeting any time goalscores versus Buffalo, especially back to back.
And without Samuelson in the mix, I know he's kind of a smaller name, but he's really important
for them defensively.
He's one of their best true defensive defenders.
If you look at when their season really stabilized dating back to, and obviously maybe some
guys have come a long way, Bryson maybe could do better now than he's done at times.
Owen Powers taking steps forwards, I would say since November.
But the game Samuelson came back on November 22nd was pretty much when the team's day
will last.
I know it's not all going to come down to that, but I'm just saying he is actually
really important player for them.
And it's already back to back.
Their goal 10 is not very good.
So yeah, I like it.
I could definitely see that.
Islanders putting up higher than traditional goal output for them.
So three.
I was going to say that, but I decided to let it go.
The Calgary Flaves are plus 120.
They're also on a back to back.
They're taking them in a so to wild minus 140 over under here is six.
It's not a great schedule spot for Calgary who, you know, if they want to keep their
season alive needs to basically sweep this back to back where they're doing the stars
nor stars two step.
They're in Dallas on Monday night, then they got to travel up to Minnesota.
Same price there plus 120 in Dallas and they're going to be plus 120 at the time or they
are plus 120 at the time of recording in Minnesota.
You and I had a conversation earlier about the flames just generally.
And I do think that there should be undervalued in a team that we said it a hundred times
on the show that we want to quit this team and we can't, but everybody's quit them now
every across the board.
So now that everyone else has done it, I'm like, okay, well, if everyone else is quitting
on them, I guess I'm back in.
Now comes the part where we throw heads back and laugh.
Ready?
Ready?
I'll see where this line ends up.
I'm assuming it's going to get bigger because I don't think that they're going to close
at the same price they were the night before.
It gets teams that are basically the same.
So if Calgary gets like that plus one 30 mark, I'll be interested even on the back to back.
Yeah, I agree.
I think it'll be flames or nothing again, but we'll see.
It'll probably get to be a pretty large number.
I could see myself playing a lot of the same flames props that I've been loving too.
Goose doffs and saves, it barely got there on Saturday.
I think the under could be interesting.
Those seem to be such good narratives in flames games right now, especially if Mark's
term is going to stabilize at all.
I think they're just going to trend towards playing such low scoring tight hard fog games.
And then obviously, we're talking about playing the wild who are just like the epitome of
that.
And you know, the while they're getting by Goose doffs and I think they kind of, Goose doffs
one's going to regress hard.
They've got 944 save percentage from their goalies over the last month.
That's not going to hold.
But at the same time, they've scored on about 5% of their shots for almost like a six week
at even strength, for like a six week span.
So I don't think the offense is going to be great, but maybe they're due for an uptick
there.
So I think that's kind of all I've got on that one.
I'd like to see how Calgary looks tonight too before I kind of get involved with that
when it could be one of those things where like, you know, if they lose like another
Calgary style game tonight, where they lose three or two.
They just don't even fly to Minnesota.
Yeah, like then I could see that I'm just getting crushed and it there's some things.
Like there's so many things that I will question about that team if it's helping them get better.
If it helps motivate the guys, I think a good instance is tonight Dylan Dubey going down
to the fourth line.
Like you can talk about trying to motivate guys all you want, all this sort of stuff.
But at what point is it like you just need to play your best players.
Like you can't score goals and you're sitting the fifth leading score on the team for Nick
Richie, who just came from Arizona for free basically because he has a $250,000 salary
greater than his brothers.
Like that was pretty much why Arizona wanted to do that.
So like, I don't know, I think you could talk about what's going on in Calgary for a while,
but it's getting hard to read what's bad luck versus like, you know, everything else.
Well, well, well said.
The flames, the flames, the flames, the San Jose Sharks are plus 260 traveling to Colorado.
Take on the avalanche.
You were minus 315.
The over under for this one is also six and a half.
This is a feels like a another get right spot.
It feels like Tuesday night is full of these for Colorado.
I know that they got a point the other night and there's six, two and two in the last 10,
but before that, a couple losses for the avalanche and it looked like because it, the
reason I'm calling it that is because it looked like the avalanche were about to come alive
or they did, I guess, you know, they went on that crazy rip and then they had their little
stumble.
Then they blew a lead against the crack in right before that they gave up 14 goals and
two straight losses to devils and stars.
So they're going to course correct again and I'm sure that they'll get back to that team
that we saw before those three losses.
So this looks like a really bad night to be a San Jose shark.
So however you want to play into that, it's how I would do it.
Yeah, I agree.
I think you could very well play the abs puck line at this number and live with it.
But that said, I feel like I've kind of actually gone into cold swing on those, but like, I
just don't see how the outs are going to blow this game.
It's hard for me to imagine, especially I should double check who's going tonight.
That caps shark's name, like, oh my, it's something special if you make that caps offense
look that good right now and cackenin and the sharks managed.
Yes, rhyme or tonight.
So it would likely be cackenin and that's he has the last couple of times I've watched
him.
And I know he's now got the worst goals saved above expected in a league.
That's not surprising because he looks horrible.
He was awful versus Washington.
He might be the worst regular goalie still getting starts.
So I think that's could be a pretty good spot for Colorado to just blow them out and maybe
get on some abs goal scores if you want.
And that sort of thing.
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A real barn burner between the blues and the coyotes who are still playing really hard,
like I said, they gave the devils their money is worth.
On Sunday, St. Louis's minus 135 at Mulliterina, Coyotes plus 115 over under 6.5.
Ah, yeah, nothing here.
I know you touched on Veronica, but-
Veronica's all I got.
And you know what?
I think the overs of a look, which is in part, obviously, if you're taking any time goal
scores, you want to target games where you see a lot of action coming.
And I think there's a good chance that that's what we'll see here, but that's kind of all
I got.
And like with that said, they hung around with New Jersey.
They're still competing so hard.
And that's what you're going to see when you've got like 10 guys fighting to secure full-time
NHL spots and that sort of thing.
But at the same time, you look at the roster and it's like, oh boy, it's hard to get behind
Arizona winning many games.
So yeah, I like brought it a score and I think that's about it.
Hey, the Anaheim Ducks come into Tuesday night on a one game winning streak.
They will take on the Seattle Kraken.
The Ducks are plus two 50.
The Kraken, sorry, the Oilers.
The Kraken are minus 300 and the over under here is six and a half.
Once again, I'll say this, like the two underdogs for the top of the show, the two underdogs
that I was kind of deciding between where Anaheim and Columbus.
I like Columbus better.
I think that the Penguins just they've struggled so mightily defensively for a team that's
going to be priced where they are.
That that's why I went that direction.
But you can also make the argument with Seattle that they just might get eight 40 gold tending
and lose to anybody.
So I could see the logic behind a Ducks bet here.
They are playing hard four, four and two in their last 10.
But I'm going to I'm going to do my best to set this one out.
Yeah, that's kind of where I'm at.
I'm just going to be hoping to crack and keep it rolling.
They, you know, yes, like you said, if they get a gold tending performance like in that
overtime game in Detroit, that's always going to be pretty tough to overcome.
But I actually think their teams stabilized that avalanche game was really, really impressive.
Like I love the way there were some breakdowns both ways, but overall they stuck with it
really, really well put together a quality third push for a while.
And I was pumped when they got rewarded with the game time goal because I thought they
really deserve that.
I saw a lot of people completely writing them off before that game.
And I've yeah, they're they're playing a lot better again, which has me excited because
I love them as a team.
So I really hope that they win this game and keep it rolling.
All right.
Now on to Top Shelf.
That's our favorite bets for Tuesday, March 7th.
Top Shelf where Mama lines the cookies.
I'll go first.
I like the New Jersey Devils.
They're minus 130 right now against the Toronto Maple Leafs.
They're at home.
They're coming back from out west.
But New Jersey's catching a great spot with the Leafs right now.
Toronto's also coming traveling from the West Coast.
They're traveling from Vancouver.
They lost Ryan O'Reilly for four weeks or so with a broken finger.
And John Tavares will also be sending this one out.
So their center depth is in rough shape for this game against the Devils.
Their top six looks like a shell of itself.
And the Devils with the addition of Timo Meyer all of a sudden become a really scary team.
They should be able to at least tilt the ice in the right direction more often than
not against the Leafs.
I think 130 is a fine price when you're looking at this version of Toronto, especially with
the goal-tending matchup like with the Devils, Vanacek maybe is coming on done a little bit.
We're coming back down to earth a little bit.
But it's not a huge concern when you look at who he'll be going up against in Toronto.
So I'll take the Devils at minus 130 is my favourite bet.
Okay, and I'm going to go with, I'll kind of pick two again because I think this is going
to be a little annoying.
So I play Kucharov at open, just get four shots.
But I've seen how this is going to go.
He's going to open at around plus 104 and he's going to close at minus 125 minus 130.
So that if you're listening to this and you want to play that, I don't see any reason
why the number won't just move the way the Kucharov's number has moved like five straight
times.
And then second one, I don't think we touched on the game much, did we?
I'm going to go with the over in the Golden Knights Panthers game, which I think is going
to be a really strong play.
I know that Vegas, they're going to be looking at this wanting to play really structured,
sharp contest and that could point towards the under.
But I still just think Florida's offense is turning towards being one of the very best
in the lead.
We're talking about Aiden Hill having to keep them in check.
So that scares me.
That makes me think that Florida could definitely surprise and hit four here, even though the
Knights have had a really strong stretch defensively.
So I like that.
And then I also think just seeing the Panthers keep what's kind of become a hot Vegas offense
and check seems unlikely.
So this is just one for me where it's easier to see both teams getting the three and having
a really competitive higher scoring game.
So I like the over there as well.
Yeah, I think I'm with you there.
I think it's it's it's a type of game that feels like it's the.
It feels like Vegas versus Miami, like in terms of the cities, right?
It should just like be a fun back and forth game where you just at the end of it, you're
just like, how did you know, how did we get to this point?
Yeah.
And like, you know, that's one of the main reasons I like it is like, I think we should
see both sides score, which is the thing with like some of these overs.
I mean, this is kind of an obvious point, but you see them miss because the game's four
or two and one team didn't contribute.
But I think that's less likely in this ball.
I don't really see either side getting shut down.
I don't really trust Florida ever to win like three one or four one.
And then while we're kind of on the subject, because I think this is becoming a hot topic,
like I'm seeing a lot of people saying like, quick, it's going to stick it to the Kings
in round one when that's the matchup.
And depending on, you know, especially if they surprise and go with quick here or if
we don't get to it in time, I'm looking at it, they put a lightning Thursday.
So hopefully we'll get to cover this then.
I think that fading quick in Vegas is going to be such a good play.
I tried to do it on Sunday and it didn't work mainly because Vegas just absolutely dominated
Montreal.
So, but with that said, quick, give up a whole goal above expected and I wasn't factoring
in that half men hit the post with a minute left and that would have blown a three nothing
lead to a horrible team as a massive favorite.
So that makes me think if we're going to sit on this play and try and find some good chances
where the numbers are close because obviously Vegas is such a good team.
I don't really have faith that quick is going to turn it around at his age just because
he's on a new side.
And to go further down that road, it can be tough for goal tenors to adjust to life on
a new team.
Like there are some interest, like some little intricacies that matter about who you're playing
in front of different teams, like they're going to like to play different situations,
different ways and that matters to goal tenors.
Like if we look historically, a lot of the ones who've been traded haven't succeeded
very well mid season or there's at worst been some adjustment period.
So I think this is like an angle where like if you can look for some chances to have quick
at a longer number, I think it's going to be a really good play.
Yeah, I'm with you.
And it feels a little bit like the West Coast version of the Patrick Kane situation where
the media hype around the trade is just so overblown compared to the actual like positive
impact that the player will have on the ice.
I think Kane will definitely have a better, bigger impact on the Rangers and quick will
have on the nights because I think quick's impact.
Like you said, will probably be negative.
And since there is not much run, not that much runway left in season, I think the nights
are going to want to see what they can do with him in game situations and tap into playoff
hero Jonathan quick rather than throw eight in Hill or Lauren Bausuah in game one, if
if Logan Thompson is not healthy.
And even if he is like, how much time is he going to have back as well?
So of their four goalies, you look at the names and it becomes an interesting conversation
for for that coaching staff to go with, you know, meteor mediocre starting goalie number
one mediocre, mediocre starting goalie number two or bad starting goalie number three, who
has the playoff caliber or the playoff pedigree.
But yeah, I'm with you.
I think that going against quick, I don't know, we I can look it up real quick in the
next time the nights play the Kings, but if I'm assuming quick, we'll get that start.
It's not until April 6th.
And it's in Vegas, but it's a little different, but that would be a spot to as well.
But yeah, I'm with you.
Yeah.
Anytime you see quick, get the start, I think it's an auto bet against the night.
Right.
And you think like I think about spots like this.
So it sucks to be the guy preaching like, you know, this legendary players going to
get let up consistently.
Everybody wants that.
And that's the kind of take you have and people are tagging you and freezing cold takes when
it goes wrong.
But I think this is just like, this is what's more likely, I would say it's not a slight
against quick or anything.
And I think like it's another one of these things where people have confirmation bias
when we talk about players turning it around in this sort of thing.
When we talk about like if King goes to New York, you all it can always seems that people
will remember the times that it worked out great.
And they're going to comment on those.
No one's going to sit and list all the times that things like that failed.
And I think that's like an important note, handicapping wise because I think people do
get a lot of like confirmation bias when these things work.
And then they're like, Oh, of course it went that way.
And you know, we've kind of touched on this a little bit on the show, but something like
Jersey retirement nights where people say, Oh, this team will never lose like last year.
I'm sure, you know, the Rangers lost on long this night till like a pretty average Minnesota
team.
And everyone thought the best friend scored the game winner.
Yeah.
The kind of angles where it's like, you know, keeping the line that kind of concept.
So yeah.
And it's the difference between, you know, betting and being a fan, like if you're a Vegas golden
night fan and you're excited that Jonathan quick is a golden night and like the spite
that comes with it and the shade and Freud by all means go ahead and run with that.
Like that's awesome.
That's what being a fan is all about those emotions.
But as a better, you just got to look at it like this guy's been bad this year.
He was good last year, but he was terrible the year before.
Like he's not going to give you in all likelihood.
Right.
And like that kind of goes into like, because I'm almost going to sound a little hypocritical
here when I say this.
And then I say like bet Jacob, Veronica to score, but the difference here and like there's
always going to be these little, you know, differences between these kinds of arguments.
But the difference I think with something like that is like, I still think Veronica
is going to be a good score in the NHL, whether or not that happens right away with some of
those issues, who knows, but I still think if he gets himself right, he's going to be
a good scorer in the NHL where like my take on quick is now that this is someone who's
passed his prime, who obviously was incredibly good.
Right.
Yeah.
Yeah.
The big difference there is just where they are at there in their careers.
So yeah.
So be on the lookout for those fade Jonathan, quick spots that will wrap up this episode
at the top.
We talked about Jacob Vrana, any time goal scorer, Jared McCann, any time goal scorer
and the Columbus Blue Jackets is our favorite plus money underdog plays.
And then our best bets, the New Jersey devil's minus 130 and the over in cats and golden
nights on Tuesday for Nick Barton.
I'm Michael Lee buff.
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We'll see you again Wednesday night or Thursday morning.
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