Nobody wins, let's everybody win.
This is your climb.
Purin' this game.
I'm gonna press the buck back.
That is possible goal.
These guys aren't good.
Scary, good.
And this crowd is going for the bananas.
As they say, a hockey, let's do that hockey.
Hello everyone, welcome back to Line Change.
The NHL betting podcast from The Action Network.
My name is Michael Leebuff joining me
are my co-hosts and friends.
Nick Martin and Tim Kahnowski
and together the three of us are going to break down.
The four games slate
that awaits us on Wednesday night
then we'll talk a little
big picture, you know, future stuff
at the very end of the show.
I should be pretty quick.
And we'll start with the flyers and canes.
This one in Carolina.
Plus 205 at the time of recording.
Carolina minus 250.
And over under six.
It does look like Carter Hart
is going to get the nod in goal for Philadelphia
after about with food poisoning.
And I guess as long as he's starting,
you'd have to be looking at the flyers here Nick.
Yeah, I think so.
I think Philly continues to be one of the more
under the radar good teams.
Like when I look at it,
I mean, what games have they really not been great?
They have a lot of sharks.
So you take me for them.
Kind of dummy them.
And then I mean, the Kings one.
But overall, like, I feel like I've watched a lot of flyers hockey this year.
And they look pretty good.
I'm a little scared just because we think that car line is kind of coming around.
But to me, it just feels like this is going to be.
Too big a number for how this game should go.
Philly's playing pretty legitimately good hockey.
I mean, they're.
Plus 205 is one of the bigger dogs out of the next two days right now.
You look at the way they've competed.
Their process looks strong.
They've gotten a league goal tender win heart actually plays.
So for me, this just looks a little long.
You know, Carolina sometimes has a tough time finishing too.
And they're goal tending situations a little shaky.
So yeah, I, I'm not interested at all in the.
Canes here might end up with a smaller play on the flyers.
Yeah, it looks like Carolina started to do what they do.
They're, they're just tilting the ice and firing.
Everything at the net.
But when you look at.
This is they're not really getting much separation at five on five just yet.
I will see as the season goes on if they start to tighten that up.
Uh, in front of their goalies.
But yeah, the goal tending disparity here is.
Uh, what I think is actionable.
If you're getting hard versus whoever's in goal for Carolina.
It just gives you a decent floor to work with with a plus two or five underdog.
So.
Yeah, as long as hard is going.
I think that this is a playable underdog Tim.
I tend to disagree.
I think that this travel is horrendous for Philadelphia.
They just went.
West Coast at San Jose at in a high at LA.
Now they come all the way back at Carolina.
I just think that is a tough team to run into on this type of travel.
And I know.
Put a ton of stock into things like that or whatnot, especially earlier in the year.
But I mean, if you're playing a plus two or five dog, I have to feel.
A little bit better about the spot.
I think that the reason the number so big has to do with that.
And so.
I would if I had to play it.
I play like a Carolina puck line because I just really don't want to mess with that spot at all.
Yeah, it should it should be noted that the hurricanes were fantastic at home last year and there for oh and oh.
You can rally again this year.
It just seems to be one of their one of their things under Brenda more.
So that is definitely a tick in your favor.
So a little bit of disagreement there.
A little bit more disagreement for this next one too with the Kraken against the oilers.
Seattle's plus 150.
Just got trounced by the oilers who were on a two game winning streak after beating the islanders or one in Chris.
Now blocks debut oilers right now minus 180 and total six and a half.
Nick, you're looking at the oilers here.
I like the oilers.
I really think that the majority of their game has been quite strong.
Like they've created chances at the level we all expect, which is one of the highest rates in the week.
It looks like McDavid and dry settle are going to start to click here.
I we've talked about it.
I think everyone knows they have a couple defenders that are not going to be great in their own zone.
Like CC Boo Shard.
But those are manageable flaws.
I mean, they've lived with those last couple years and at home, too.
I should notice been really bad.
But at the end of the day, like it's kind of getting overblown out of proportion.
They've clearly had some bad puck luck.
I think they're going to start filling the net pretty consistently.
I'm not really too worried on that front.
I just think if they're going to get livable goal tending, which they've gotten from Skinner recently,
even the sharks game.
He didn't give up any softies.
It's just what it was.
They didn't get anything going.
But I'm still kind of wanting to buy in the others.
I think they are going to get on a little upswing here and.
Awesome spot to take over for a new coach, I think, because they are probably like you're just going to walk in there.
And they're going to start winning games.
I think you'll probably get all the credit.
Like if you look at the underlying process of what was happening.
And some of the turnovers probably were a little worse than like some of the defensive analytics suggest.
But I still think they're playing a lot better than probably their record suggested, which was obvious to say.
And I just feel like I want to buy on Edmonton right now.
So yeah, I think I still like the way there's here.
Not a great price, but.
Maybe if you want to consider a team total or something too.
And I the other thing I thought there was notable look like make David had a little more jump versus the islanders as that game got going.
It seems like maybe he's getting a little healthier or I don't know if it was just.
You know, he's a little out of rhythm, but it feels like maybe him and dry settle about to really get home and.
Yeah, I think it's for me.
I would lean towards Seattle here.
I want to see if this number gets bigger because I think most people would agree with you.
And it is the consensus, at least among the betting community that the Oilers have played much better than their record suggests that the numbers bear that out.
And it's pretty clear that the gold tending and a couple of timely lapses and bad bounces is what did them in.
Through the slow start, but I thought the islanders made it really easy on Stuart Skinner.
And I guess that is also credit to the Oilers defense after they scored on their first shot and barely tested him.
I thought from from that point on a couple of couple of good saves, but nothing to alarming.
Yeah, and the Oilers looked really good against the crack and just a couple nights ago.
So that's a little scary for Seattle backers, but the crack and gold tending to him.
I'm like talking myself out of this here, but the cracking gold tending isn't great either. It's just I can't.
I just I'll need to see more from Skinner before I start laying these kind of prices with with Edmonton.
It's just way too scary.
And it feels a little like what we saw in the heritage classic.
They got that when people are like, okay, here comes the turnaround.
But if you don't get good gold tending and you have to outscore issues and McDavid and dry said or still working into their elite form.
Like the margin for error becomes way too thin.
I think for these kind of prices, but Tim, you're you're with Nick.
Yeah, so I'm not going to, you know, have to worry about the price as much because I would take.
I'm probably going to take maintain three way here.
And what where I get there is, yeah, I don't want to lay the in the minus 180 range.
But you guys all said it.
You listen to Canadian media and people cover this team on day to day basis.
Like they're going to rebound not just because of the new coach, but because they're due to rebound due to positive regression.
The way they've been pulling in the way the analytics have checked out for them.
Seattle is a team. I think we should start treating Edmonton like we treat the Maple Leafs and that they can to score their way out of problems.
And they're going to start to score their way out of problems because they just need.
They just need pedestrian goal tending.
And the cracking can't score.
That's like they have the crack and have a ton of problems.
I want to get in on the Edmonton train before leave off as you say I need to see more.
Well, if you need to wait to see more, we're not going to get any good.
Out of the steam.
That's how I feel.
I have to jump on the train in some way before it leaves the station and it's back to oilers minus 250 every single night.
So a 180 line here, which you could get.
I was just looking at a comparable line right now for, for instance, Pittsburgh and Columbus on a Tuesday night.
And you could get three way minus 105 on Pittsburgh.
So I think that like Edmonton could be in the 110 120 range of three way there.
So always shop around.
There's some road three ways out there a lot of times.
Chris and I block has been added to Jack Adams award markets at 25 to want on to the ducks and avalanche now.
Anaheim will be on a back to back.
It's John Gibson on Tuesday night.
So should be Lucas Dostol on Wednesday in Colorado.
Leo Carlson will likely sit on his pitch count his street, Steven Strasberg pitch count.
As you'd imagine, the ducks are a hefty underdog here plus 235 Colorado minus 290.
And a total six and a half.
I want to bet the duck.
It does look like Colorado, starting to get its act together.
And a lot of what they were going through, like they, they just had some wonky losses.
That's seven nil against the nights.
They ate two against the blues, but Georgie have just looked all out of sorts for a little while there.
And I think some of that comes from just playing in games that were.
Got completely out of hand in the goalie will just generally lose his focus and the numbers get kind of.
All out of whack from that.
So it.
There's another.
I think on a shorter slate.
Like I'd much rather bet the flyers than the ducks has a big dog here.
We'll talk about the last game in a bit.
So.
It's going to be a pass for me begrudgingly because I've talked all season about how I like this ducks team at these kind of prices.
But I'll be betting them Tuesday night.
So Nick, I'll just take a deep breath here and stay away from the altitude.
Yeah, I like the abs here.
Their pucklines minus one of six at the time recording.
I would play that to minus 120.
I think that.
This is just a brutal spot for a ducks team that I've not convinced of this much better defensively.
I know the abs have been a little uneven, but it looked like they stuck with a much better process in Seattle.
I think they're a really interesting team because you can just see how they.
It's almost like they get a little lack of daisicle and then they think they're just going to turn it on and do whatever they want.
These stars are going to dig their way out of the hole.
And that sort of thing.
And then, you know, when other teams do the right things, it just gets ugly when the games fall apart, right?
Like the blues game was the perfect example of that.
You could just see they thought they were going to kind of turn it on when it got bad.
And they were just not really doing anything well defensively.
But I like the way they bounce back in Seattle and stuck with a more thorough process, a better team game.
And I just think if they come out and they stick with that, they make it hard on the ducks here.
They don't give them the cheap giveaways.
They're going to get their offense.
Like I think this one can definitely get a little out of hand with the ducks on a traveling back to back.
So I like it.
I think the number could be bigger.
And yeah, like you said, Carlson out that hurts the ducks all offensive upside.
The only thing.
Yeah, me like you said, maybe a little scary on the gold tending with the ass, but I think this is a good spot to lay it.
I think they can come out and just carry the play significantly.
And I kind of liked the fact that they just got called out and they just had this little bit of an ugly stretch where they should be pretty ready to go for this one at home.
Yeah, I'm not too worried about Georgie have long term either.
I just kind of chucked this one up to a blip in this team.
Does a pretty good job in front of him.
So I think he'll he'll sort it out to him anything here.
Abs and ducks.
Yeah, the abs have been talked with those losses.
They've been the definition of like we don't care if we lose seven, nothing or two, one.
It's still a loss who cares. Let's just get out of here and move on.
So they've been really hot and cold and kind of bipolar in that way of looking at it.
But.
I will probably check out what my boosts are.
If I was 30% 50% and a little SGP Colorado and over.
And in the spot.
So.
You guys said it ducks back to back.
I don't love it's a bad team on a back to back like that running into team.
That's a capability to be a complete buzz on Colorado.
So as much as we love our ducks, this ain't the spot.
Not a bad spot to back dose all like over 42 and a half saves.
There's some alternate save total either.
For this one.
Okay.
So we keep them.
Yeah.
Is their better gold tender.
Yeah, but Gibson's be good.
He's been good.
It's been amazing how long his height from when he was nasty is managed to drag on.
Yeah.
Yeah.
I still think it's a little.
You can't convince me.
Yeah, he's well for sure what the golden combination will be here.
But yeah, I don't think that's super relevant as you say with Gibson playing a little better.
I don't know if there's a position at sport.
Where your reputation follows you four years down the line.
Quite like gold tending in the NHL.
Can I just change his like year to year.
Yeah, exactly.
That's what's so hard to predict.
Yeah.
In England right now is looking at carefully though.
His numbers are crazy, but.
Yeah, there's so many of your.
This is the scariest, maybe the scariest segment of the podcast so far the season.
Because all three of us are in agreement here.
And we're all in agreement on the New York Islanders as a plus 130 underdog in Vancouver.
And a total of six.
I'm an Islanders fan.
So I'll let Nick get this conversation started.
So you don't think it's just some home or bias in me dragon these guys along.
Yeah.
I think the main thing here is that I want to start to try and fade the canucks.
And they have cleaned up their defensive play from when people were just labeling them like pure luck box at the start of the year.
But.
It's still just been like an anomaly.
How like just the level of gold.
And they're getting the pucks that aren't going in like eventually when you give up this me chance toward your net.
And I know people will point to like talk it limiting teams to exactly the chance as they want and that sort of thing.
But these are the things you always hear when teams get on these heaters right is people coming up with.
Other arguments when really so much of this just comes down to like bounces and that sort of thing anyways right and then people build arguments around that.
Like I think the canucks are playing quite well, but.
Plus 135 like there's some plus 140s out there that's a pretty long number I think just the summary of this is like it's a.
You know sell high by low spot really and down there's like it's been a little ugly but they've had some tough games right and they've still got one of the best goal tenders in the world.
This is a huge spot for them and I just and part of it to like I think you revert back to the roster strength on paper like I think to an extent at some point you got away that.
And that's a factor here for me so this just looks like one where it's a good spot to back the aisles like losing five in a row when I don't necessarily think they've been down rate horrific.
And the canucks have kind of been at the exact other end of things where everything's going right they've got the absolute maximum on a points they could have at this point this season with how they played.
So yeah I think the numbers really long I like the spot a lot I think the hours are going to find a way to make this closer to a coin flip type game.
So yeah I think it's just a great time to try to buy on the calendars and in it will hopefully be kind of just a coin flip type match up.
Well well well well okay.
I know where I know where Leibov probably stands on the matter and if Nick is on the islanders this seems like an ugly peer pressure situation for myself.
Look the the calendars are on a five game losing streak Vancouver's one six of seven and it's their first game back from an eastern Canada road trip.
Everything's going great for Vancouver things couldn't be going worse for the islanders so it's a matter of if all of those things are enough for me to buy low sell high in the situation.
And unfortunately when I stop speaking Leibov is just going to hammer at home and make me essentially no no no situation other than to bet the islanders but also to the island the Vancouver has a top top three power play in the league in terms of power play percentage.
They also the islanders are bottom 10 least penalized teams so they don't go to the box too too often I think that could be a factor in you know limiting one of Vancouver's best assets here and so Leibov drive at home as I open up my app here and bet the islanders yeah.
I do think hearing someone else say it makes we feel better about thinking that I do think that the islanders have played better than their record shows especially a blade I think that in a weird way maybe they're paying back some wins that they shouldn't have got earlier in the season when they weren't looking as as crisp and now it's just catching up to them in some sort of karmic cosmic karmic way.
That said I I think that a lot of what the islanders are doing wrong is just one or two mental mistakes and in crucial times that happening it's the wild they blew a lead and gave the wild a couple of eight power plays they won they played pretty well gets the oilers for the first 45 minutes took a penalty took another penalty the oil is squirm full power plays that games over this has been kind of a running theme with them during this losing streak and Tim you mentioned the the islanders.
Not going to the box often but they also get a power place either they're they're they're less than a league and again in terms of power play opportunities I do like the islanders I think everybody's kind of nailed it this is a classic by low sell high I also think it's worth looking at two player props here it's bohor bats game first game pack and in Vancouver.
Look he has come through on that the Vancouver narrative to he scored against them when they visited the island last year sort of at Boville you scored the game winner for for Vancouver so he's another one to keep in mind and also Matt Barzel like Matt Barzel is a showman before an athlete and this is his hometown is going to be tons of friends of family in town and he's he's just a type of guy we talk about the profile of a player you like to look for in these narratives he's he's definitely somebody to keep in mind there.
So I do like the islanders I'll be looking maybe a whore that two plus goals or something along those lines as a little bit of a longer play into that narrative.
Yeah I like the point you make about the 40 minutes with the connox or with the oilers to the coffee so you got to hang in there and find a way but like three of their last and they've played some tough teams to right and that's been pretty consistent because the wild game same thing process looked good.
The Bruins game I actually same like two pretty good periods and then it just gets ugly and they took a penalty.
Yeah well and then yeah the the oilers game if they can play two periods how they play in that game like I'll I'll love the price we're getting here so hopefully they can find a way to you know put together a more complete effort and just put it all together and and yeah I think Vancouver is going to start to be a little overvalued and some of these numbers are pretty long as of today so and they should be out there so I think this is a good one for
the listeners.
That's to ride.
Leibov tell me if I'm wrong I feel like the Islanders have been a lot of teams scheduled to wins also as well they've been like on the other side of some tough spots.
I think was Colorado maybe one of those spots Edmonton obviously the other night so they've been there's some tough luck.
Yeah they've walked into some some weird situations the oilers one now they're walking to another one with Horbett's return.
They caught a break with the wash the capitals but I think that was rock bottom for them.
They had a really bad schedule spot against the Sabers earlier in the year so there's been some stuff but I'll put the conspiracy.
They're getting screwed.
They're getting the conspiracy theory stuff aside for now I can't I can't I can't pull that out on November 14th.
I'll wait till after Christmas.
All right real quick two minutes to just to wrap up the show Nick we kind of talked about it on yesterday's episode.
Some some more awards talk some players you want to circle.
Floor is yours.
Yeah I was just I actually don't have too many more than we went on I think that Crosby won and then the the best in that.
Kind of got caved I was going to say I think Demko's good that those numbers got really crushed so.
I'm actually taking the floor with not that much to say here unfortunately.
Well done Nicky.
I'll bring up this.
I'll bring up this big a little harder.
The the oilers if you shop around I see minus 200 to make the playoffs I see minus 166 to make the playoffs so.
Oilers it's for an interesting situation here.
Yeah if you said it these books don't adjust.
I mean maybe they are adjusting I don't know it's like is this right what do we kind of think of that.
Okay I'll throw an interesting one out to close here since I didn't really have anything but the ducks are plus 625 to make the playoffs.
That's pretty crazy the oats are plus or 25.
I feel like if you're low on some of these West teams those are pretty interesting numbers.
Yeah I would suggest they are in the the correlation of like at this point that the Jack Adams award numbers are gone I'm on both those guys.
Like I said Chris now black is 25 to one at same price as J Woodcroft at the book I'm looking at so if you think that J Woodcroft is maybe going to coach the Islanders in a couple days to the playoffs maybe get it on that but that's it.
All right coach of coach of the year in you 18.
Yeah the only coach of the year number that I still think is playable right now is his car berry at 40 to one.
I think it has been.
Yeah I agree and people thought the cops were so bad but the kind of one you can probably sit and see like if they collect two or three more wins in a row here it'll probably still sit at the same number.
Yeah I'd agree.
Okay that wraps up this episode only four games to talk about we'll be back again for Thursday nine games on that one and then next week there's a weird schedule because of American Thanksgiving the NHL go stark on both Tuesday and Thursday.
So it looks like we'll probably do episodes for Monday and Wednesday next week.
But stay tuned there is we just confirm the logistics for Tim Kalan asking Nick Martin I'm like leave off thank you for listening to line change please rate review subscribe.
All that good stuff and good luck with all your bets on Wednesday.
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