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Folks I feel pretty confident Vegas is really really looking down on the Auburn Tigers.
Breathing temperatures are likely for several hours inland and a few hours closer to the
coast.
Yes.
You are Lockdown Auburn, your daily podcast on the Auburn Tigers.
Part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day.
Yes.
Well come on in to Lockdown Auburn, your daily Auburn Tigers Podcast.
I'm your host Zach Blacker.
Me.
Thank you so much for making Lockdown Auburn your first list and every single day.
Little crossover actions we are joined by Chris Gordy, host of Lockdown SEC and Chris Gordy.
Our friends at FanDuel America's number one sports book, they have rolled out win totals
for all college football teams.
But we're going to look at the win totals they have for all of the teams in the SEC and
Gordy I may be biased here and that's why you're here.
You can call me out.
They have Auburn at six and a half wins in 2023.
And I think that is an easy over your thought.
My initial thought on Auburn is the floor should be six and six.
Even if things are horrendous and don't go great for Auburn this year or that you can't
go worse than six and six.
So yeah, my easy inclination there is when you look at your noncon includes New Mexico
State UMass Samford.
We know that's three wins right there.
So can you find me four more wins?
That's how I always like to do it.
I don't like to work backwards.
I like to go forwards with win totals.
So sure find me four more wins at Cal as we know is one that I think most Auburn fans
expect to win.
I know Cal is a decent program.
It's a road trip.
It's out west.
It's a different time zone.
All that stuff shouldn't matter.
You're Auburn.
You should be able to run.
You know, even if you don't go throw a pass run the ball for 400 yards and get out with
a win.
So yeah, I think that should be one.
So that's four.
Can you find me two SEC wins?
Well, miss to be state and Ole Miss at home.
I think at minimum you need to split those, right?
I think you'll win one of those.
And then really outside of that, you know, is there a road game you can win at Vandy seems
like the easiest one to chalk up as a W. So to me, I think I'm with you.
You know, I think I think Auburn is probably seven and five is most likely.
Yeah.
Whereas eight and four.
You know, I would put nine wins is really the ceiling for Auburn.
I don't think they could get to 10 even if everything went great.
But I think nine is the ceiling.
I think seven is the easy.
So I'm with you over on six and a half from our friends and FanDuel.
Yeah.
Yeah.
I mean, I feel pretty good about Vandy on the road.
It's those maybe games, right?
Of the two Mississippi games at home, the fact that they're both at home.
I'm with you.
I think you get one of those.
I think at A&M is interesting because that program, like I just don't know what I just
don't know.
I just don't know about the Aggies.
You know, how does Jimbo kind of get that squad going?
They've certainly got the talent as a result of inconsistent wins.
So you know, I think that's certainly one too.
But then at Arkansas, Arkansas team, I'm not very high on this year.
We'll see what Coach Pittman can do.
It seems like they've kind of turned it down a little bit over the last few seasons.
AJ Jefferson though, him back with Dan, he knows.
I think he knows he's going to be a shot in the arm.
Sure.
Used to the Kendall Brawls offense.
They got some pieces and the rocket Sanders is back to one of the SEC leading rutchers
from last year.
So if you're discounting Arkansas, I would stay maybe take a pause there.
But I would still say like right now, if you're asking me unbiased Auburn, Arkansas in
early November, it's a 50 50 game.
Yeah, certainly a maybe game.
There's a lot of those.
And I think if Auburn can split those, you're looking at 7 to 5, 8 and 4.
So we will see what that looks like moving forward.
You mentioned Arkansas.
Arkansas is also at six and a half courtesy of our friends at Fandall Sportsbook.
And I think this is right.
I think Auburn, I think Arkansas, I think Mississippi State, I think Missouri, all these
things are six and a half South Carolina and Kentucky.
They're all kind of in that same tier.
I think that's fair.
Gordy, if you had to pick one of these teams that would go up or down as far as like when
in total, switch one, which you kind of lean towards.
Yeah, the Arkansas one is interesting because they're non-conference.
They get Western Carolina Kent State and Florida International.
So that's three wins right there.
BYU is their fourth, you know, non-conference.
Now remember, they went to BYU last year.
And even with all the struggles they had, they beat a good BYU team there.
So I think getting them in Fayetteville this time around, I think they, Arkansas should
expect to win that one.
You know, the neutral field game with A&M is always close for some reason.
A&M always finds a way to eat it out, but it's always a close one.
And then Missouri at home, Mississippi State at home, those are games that if I'm Arkansas,
I should win those.
So you know, road trip, Alabama, road trip, at Florida, tough.
You know, you do get all, Auburn at home like we talked about.
So I think, I think it feels like Arkansas seven wins should feel pretty safe.
Yeah.
And then you look at a step above that with Texas A&M at seven and a half.
Once again, that's a team where I just don't know what to expect about this team.
Gordy, I have no idea.
Yeah, they just went five and seven and obviously, you know, rebounded at least a little bit
and got the huge monster win over LSU at the end of the year.
But they got to go to Miami this year.
I know Miami is not supposed to be, you know, great chicks or the favorite to win the ACC.
But that was a dogfight last year in college station as bad as both teams were.
Go Miami is going to be tough.
And then of course, you got to go to Tennessee.
Going to be brutal.
You got to go to Ole Miss.
You got to go to LSU.
Yeah, I don't know, man.
I would pump the brakes a little bit on A&M.
I would say if everything goes right for the Aggies this year, seven and five is probably
right where they are.
So I'd go the under on seven and a half on A&M.
I think I'm with you.
I'm absolutely with you.
Ole Miss in that same tier at seven and a half Gordy.
And once again, this is a team where like, you know, they're playing, you know, their
best consistency is in the history of that program based on what Lane Kiffin has been
able to do.
But that's another one where I'm like, oh, this whole thing that he's doing in regards
to rebuilding due to the transfer portal every time.
Like, I'm not positive for the talent is there for them to be listed at seven and a half.
Like, is this this a sure thing to be an eight and a 14?
What are your thoughts on that when you go to Alabama?
I think Ed Auburn is a little interesting.
You go to Georgia.
Like that's just not a good situation if you're if you're Ole Miss.
That's the two biggest is this this time around for Ole Miss.
They have to go to Bama to Georgia.
Don't discount week two at Tulane.
This is a team that just won the AAC.
Just beat USC in the Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams in the bowl game.
Granted, it was the cotton bowl and they were I mean, their fan base was fired up for that.
But you're pretty fired up for Ole Miss coming to New Orleans week two.
Michael Pratt, by the way, their stud quarterback is back.
So that's a danger spot to me.
If I was doing Ole Miss, the safe bet to me is that they go under this year.
That I think seven wins.
And look, if Pete Golden can't get that defense going, they look terrible in the spring game.
And I had people tell me, oh, they're running basic plays.
I'll make whatever excuses you want.
They don't have the dogs.
They don't have the horses on the defense right now.
They're going to get there.
They're recruiting well down the road.
But I think I would not be surprised if Lane bottoms out a little bit this year and they
go six and six if all hell breaks loose.
But to me, seven wins is not crazy to say for Ole Miss.
Well, and you know, Ole Miss as far as like talent acquisition goes, everybody's talking
about how good their transfer portal class is.
The two biggest names, the two biggest parts of that transfer portal class, like they're
both going to be back up quarterback.
So it doesn't really help your roster get better as far as translating that into more
wins.
I'm just, there's this weird thing going on between Ole Miss and Auburn right now.
I'm going to be honest with you.
But like still, I just, I'm not buying it this year.
I don't think Jackson Dardishem, I think Lane Kiffin is a solid, obviously a very, very
good offensive coach.
But as far as talent acquisition goes, like I don't love what Ole Miss has done.
And the schedule, I mean, I'm actually looking forward to them playing Georgia.
Just, I think it's going to be an interesting matchup with Lane's offensive mind versus
what Georgia does defensively.
I think that's going to be a lot of fun.
But yeah, I'm with you.
I think seven and a half is.
And it could be Spencer Sanders, the quarterback from Oklahoma State and he looked good in
the sports game and all that.
Quenchon Judkins, you know, the SEC leading rusher from a year ago, he's back as well.
But it just feels like when I start to talk myself into all that, I start to take us
back and go, wait a minute, something seems fishy here, something's not going to go right
here.
So that's, call me pessimistic on Ole Miss right now.
Yeah.
Before we talk about some of these top teams in the SEC, is there a team that you're looking
at on this and you're like, this is way too low.
When you look at the numbers, the win totals that are fandal friends have put up there,
is there any team you're like, this, this doesn't look right?
It's the two at the bottom.
Vandy at three and a half look, understand it's Vanderbilt and expectations are not
high, but they exceeded expectations a year ago.
They, and nearly, you know, barring a miracle against Tennessee, almost got to a bowl game.
They beat Florida and they beat Kentucky last year.
I look at Vandy's non-conference and I think like they should go at minimum three and one.
And let's be real, going two-way forest, we just lost Sam Hartman.
If Vandy can do enough on offense, they could probably win that game.
Win at UNLV, beat Hawaii, beat Alabama A&M, that gets you to the over three and a half
before you even play an SEC games act.
And really at minimum, if you go three and one in non-con, you're looking for one SEC
win.
Can I get one SEC win?
And I'm looking at versus Missouri on, on September 30th.
That's the one if I'm Vandy, then I can win.
So I like the Vandy over and I like the Florida over.
I have wins for Florida.
Look, if you tell me right now, the Billy Napier in year two at Florida cannot win six
games, then go and fire him right now.
He shouldn't be coaching in the SEC.
Like I understand year one was the transition.
It didn't go great.
They went six and six.
The defense was god awful.
Anthony Richardson was good, but look, you're going to take a step back offensively because
you're going to go to Graham Mertz.
He's not Anthony Richardson, but I think he can be okay.
But I think that defense at Florida is going to be light years better.
Austin Armstrong, I thought, was a huge hire.
We saw in the spring game, the defense started to look better.
I think Florida, like if Florida's number is really five and a half wins, dude, again,
just go and fire Billy Napier right now.
If you think he can't at worst get to six and six, this is Florida, a program of excellence.
Like you win national titles at Florida.
I understand it's going to take some time for Napier to get to where, you know, to that
standard, but dude, a bad year at Florida is seven and five, not five wins.
Come on.
Yeah.
And you can only Florida people can only wave the whole, you know, the Dan Mullen left
this roster in shambles thing for so long with the current state of college football with
the portal.
Like, okay, coach Napier.
Like this is it.
Like this is, this is when you kind of need to start putting it all together.
Gordy looking at Georgia, Alabama, LSU and Tennessee, the cream of the crop in the SEC
entering the 2023 season.
We'll look at those totals next.
And also Gordy, I got to pick your brain.
Where does Peyton Thorne stand among SEC quarterbacks when you look at the tier list ahead?
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feed.
Gordy, looking at the top teams in the SEC per our friends and Fandall and per I guess
common sense, you look at Georgia at 11 and a half wins, Alabama at 10 and a half wins,
LSU and Tennessee both at 9 and a half wins.
I got a feeling a lot of people Gordy are going to say Bama's too high.
I don't know if I'm really ready to get there quite yet.
Yeah, it's tough man because not having the quarterback is what's really, really hard
to get a read on Alabama right now.
They've looked like they've kind of reloaded on defense.
It looked like at least what we saw in the spring game, Kevin Steele's going to get back
to that blitzing like crazy corner blitzes, safety blitzes, linebackers, like they're going
to get after it.
So I'm confident that the defense is going to be okay.
I think they're going to get back to the ground and pound dominant run game.
I love what they've got in the backfield right now.
The biggest question they have is who's going to be your quarterback and unfortunately the
spring game, we saw a ton of interceptions, Ty Simpson, Jalen Milro, we saw some good but
a lot of bad and it was just a mixed back.
So they go and get Tyler Buckner, the transfer from Notre Dame.
I still don't think he's the answer.
I mean, again, maybe they're just trying to add competition, but that's the hardest part
for me, Zach.
Look at Alabama, you know, you're getting punched in the mouth in week two with Texas
and Quinn Ewer's coming to town.
Keep in mind before Quinn Ewer's got hurt in that Bama game last year, he was thrown
it all over Bama.
So the Texas game in week two scares the hell out of me if I'm Bama and then road trips
at A&M.
You lost the last time you went there at Auburn again, Iron Bowl, you throw the records out,
even during Auburn's awful missed the last couple of years that game has had moments.
Auburn with the first year of a coaching tenure usually goes pretty well for them.
Yeah.
And then the Tennessee game is, you know, I know you get them in until school this year,
but they're obviously good.
LSU is going to be a danger spot.
So I just look at it at it, Zach, and I go, it would not surprise me.
It's very unsay but like, but it would be, it would not shock me to say that Bama were
to win or lose two games again this year.
I'll be a close, right?
I mean, last year they lose on the last second field goal of Tennessee and they lose on a
two-point conversion and overtime at LSU, you know, but the loss is a loss.
And so again, safe money.
I think a lot of the veterans are going to go, oh, it's saving.
He had two losses.
He always bounces back.
That's true.
But he's always had a dynamic stud quarterback and he doesn't have that right now.
Georgia at 11 and a half wins is probably the most confident I've ever been going over
an 11 and a half win situation.
It's stupid.
I mean, they're, they're scheduled and I get what it is.
They had Oklahoma originally scheduled and they had to drop them because, you know, the
SEC comes in and goes, oh, you in Tennessee get Oklahoma over your schedule.
You're playing each other, which is weird because they didn't do that with Bama in Texas.
Like Bama's still going to be like, this year.
But, you know, it's just kind of interesting.
But you go look at that schedule.
Georgia's going undefeated.
I mean, I, I put a future Heisman bet on a, on Carson back.
He was plus 3000.
If you can get that value on Carson back right now, because think of it this way.
Georgia's going to go undefeated.
They go running back by committee.
So no running backs going to stand out from the other.
There's no receiver.
I mean, maybe Brock Bowers, but like a tight end for Heisman seems like a long shot.
To me at the end of the day, I think they'll look back and go.
He has the best, the cleanest stats.
He's the best player on the best team.
And I think Carson Beck's going to get that invite to, to New York.
So yeah, we'll take that is a juicy take, Gordy.
Georgia's going undefeated in regular season 12 and O.
They play Alabama or LSU in, in, in Atlanta.
We'll see.
Uh, but yeah, I would say the 11 and a half, the over on Georgia seems pretty, uh, pretty
safe.
All right.
Looking at the number two teams and, and both divisions, he got LSU and Tennessee at nine
and a half wins.
I'll talk with the buddy earlier this week.
Like, I feel really good about Tennessee.
LSU to me is like, for some reason, I'm not confident about it, but there's no reason to
think that they should be taking a step back from a year ago.
Right.
See, I'm, I'm the opposite of you.
I think, I think it's LSU is more likely to go 10 and two than Tennessee is.
And it's just because I just, I like Joe Milton.
He's not heading hooker.
I like their receivers, Burmakoy, Romel Keaton.
I like these guys.
They're not Jalen High and Cedric Tillman.
So I just feel like, and Tennessee's going to run the football.
Don't, don't, don't discount that.
Like when you look at Tennessee, they got to go to Bama, they got to go to Kentucky,
they get Georgia at home, they got to go to Florida, which is never easy.
So I just see there's more pitfalls to me for Tennessee for LSU.
Look, they get Florida State Week one, but man, LSU finally, like they put that crap
for half, finally woke up in the second half and then missed the extra point as time expires.
If that game, if they make that go to overtime, I feel like LSU was going to win that game.
Like they put it.
It felt like they were the better team in Florida State.
They just shot themselves in the foot of Thun.
I feel like LSU is going to go in that game way more focused this year.
And here's the crazy things that they were trying to figure everything out.
It's so many new transfer pieces through the portal, new quarterback and Jane Daniels,
new head coach and Brian Kelly, new OC and Mike Dembrock, all these things they're trying
to figure out.
Guess what?
All those guys are back.
Continuity.
Jane Daniels is sitting there going, I know this offense.
I ran it all out of sheer, won the SEC West.
Mike Dembrock's, boy, Jane.
I know you can handle this.
So they're the lead receiver, Malik neighbors is back.
They lose Kae Sean Booty, but neighbors was their best receiver last year.
Two big questions to the LSU is who's going to be there to start running back and the
cornerbacks.
They brought in more transfer portal guys.
How quickly do they get that figured out?
But to me, I look at LSU and if they can beat Florida State in week one, avoid a pitfall
at Ole Miss.
I think they'll beat Auburn just because Auburn outside of that one bow next year never win
in Baton Rouge.
Stice, yeah.
I think LSU is undefeated going to that Bama game on November 4th.
And even if you lose it, okay, you still are going to hit the over on the nine and a half
wins.
That's true.
That's certainly true.
All right, Gordy, I want to get your thoughts.
The newest SEC quarterback, Peyton Thorne coming to Auburn by way of Michigan State.
Where does he stand among the rest of the conference?
That next right here, unlocked on Auburn and locked on SEC.
Gordy, of course, Auburn fans, they want Peyton Thorne to come in and be just, you know,
an all SEC type guy.
I'm not expecting that.
But I do think with the current state of, you know, Hugh Fries is scheme and what he's
done to the roster as far as flipping.
And I think as much as you possibly can in a six month period, I think all Auburn needs
is an above average quarterback and they're going to be over on the wind total we talked
about earlier in the show.
Yeah, it's tough, right?
Because I can say, I could say all this, Zach, they say Auburn is in a better spot roster
wise right now than they were two weeks ago.
Sure.
I could say I love everything.
Hugh Fries has done this off season.
I feel like he's in still confidence.
He did a great job with recruiting, with the transfer portal, all this.
But I could still come back and say Auburn's not there yet.
Right?
I mean, it's to me, this season for Auburn is about building the foundation.
You want to see pieces, you want to see, you know, start to improve.
You want to see basically like, in my mind, like no blowout losses.
Like if you lose in, it's because man, we were in that one till the end, we just ran
out of gas or we missed a field goal late.
We got to fix that.
You know, things like that, where you feel good about the direction of this program where
it's headed.
Sure.
But that said, like, it's funny, Zach, I've been running through the quarterbacks.
And this is the toughest part.
Carson Beck, I think is going to have a monster here, George.
I know he's unproven.
But I just feel like all the weapons around there.
He'll be among the top five quarterbacks in the SEC.
Will Rogers at Mississippi State, Mike Leach is gone, but I still think they're going
to throw it a good bit.
Will Rogers been among the leaders the last couple of years of college football and passing?
He's going to be up there.
Sure.
Daniel's at LSU.
I think he's not going to get worse.
He's either going to stay the same or get better.
KJ Jefferson, same thing in Arkansas, either going to get better or stay the same.
Devin Leary is an intriguing one from NC State.
He was actually there.
He's at Kentucky now.
I got him ahead.
So that's five guys right there that I think are clearly ahead of Peyton Thorpe.
Where do you come down with Spencer Radler?
Well, my opinion on Spencer Radler was very different for the first half of last season
than the second half.
Second half, you look like a world beater.
So I think I slight Spencer Radler in ahead.
Jackson Dart, if he's the guy at Ole Miss, again, a guy who looked like a stud the first six,
seven weeks of the season, not so much in the back stretch of the season.
Is he a cop to Peyton Thorpe?
Or is he better than Peyton Thorpe?
I'd probably put him in the same kind of category.
Yeah.
Like limited sample size on Milton, but man, didn't he look good beating Clemson in the
Orange Bowl?
So that's where I would kind of like at highest for Peyton Thorpe.
And I would say maybe he's seventh or eighth in the SEC.
Yeah.
We're not even taking into consideration whoever Alabama's guy is going to be.
Good point.
Connor Wegman at A&M, Graham Mertz at Florida.
So dude, it's tough.
I mean, you could say Auburn got an upgrade and Peyton Thorpe isn't upgrade.
He is playing a lot of games.
He's playing hostile environments of the Big Ten.
But do we, is he that quick, a top seven quarterback in the SEC?
I would say maybe no, not yet.
Yeah.
You, you explained that really well.
And now all of a sudden I might, that's, yeah, I think that's interesting because until
he does it, I don't know if there's an argument that you can make where that is the case.
I guess if you looked at his 2021 numbers at Michigan State, you know, he'd have one
of the best, most decorated seasons that an Auburn quarterback has had from a stat standpoint.
But that doesn't make him like a better SEC quarterback.
You know, can he do that again?
And you know, he didn't do it a year ago for various reasons.
So it also doesn't help him.
Like there's a lot of questions about Auburn's wide receiver room.
You know, I think the running game is going to be really solid.
I think the offensive line is significantly better than it was six months ago when the
season ended last year.
But is that enough?
And you, you know, you pair that with Hugh Fries and Phillip Montgomery's style of offense.
Like I think it helps them.
But you're right.
I mean, all of those guys right now, you have a much stronger case to put ahead of them because
with Peyton Thorn right now, I guess you're just kind of rolling the dice and projecting.
Now I think you have to do some of that.
I think that's partially our jobs to do that.
But yeah, it's hard to argue against anything you just said.
I'll tell you this.
I mean, I put him ahead of Brady Cook at Missouri and AJ Swan at Vanderbilt.
So he's better than those guys.
You know, it's going to be fascinating, Zach.
What if what if Buckner wins the Alabama job?
I think going into week one of this season, we can make the case that Auburn has a better
starting quarterback on day one than Alabama does with Peyton Thorn over Tyler Buckner.
That's just my opinion.
And we'll see as the season plays itself out.
Is there anybody that could win the job at Alabama that you would say they're better
than Peyton Thorn?
I just like Simpson and Millro.
The flashes we've seen, the potential they have and I love Millro's running ability.
Jalen Millro is if he's the guy and he can cut down the turnovers, I think he could be
really special for Alabama.
But I think we're picking what's the word, choosing hairs, whatever it is.
Like it's.
Splitting hairs.
It's like there's so much unknown.
We don't know.
Graham Mertz was good and bad at Wisconsin.
He could get the Florida and be a stud.
We don't know until we get in there.
But again, I can only go with what I've seen.
And again, I'm taking a huge game while Carson Beck.
He hasn't started a game for Georgia, but I just look at those pieces and go, my God.
But we know right now it's a Will Rogers, Jay Daniels, KJ Jefferson, Devin Leary, maybe
Radler and Dark, wherever you have them, I would have a head of Thorne.
Yeah, I think all that makes sense, Gordy.
If folks want more SEC conference-wide coverage, where do they go, bud?
Yeah, just come over to lockdown, SEC.
We've been talking a lot of, we've been talking very glowingly about Auburn recently.
So you probably would love our show these last couple of weeks.
But yeah, we've recapping it all or getting ready for the season.
We'll be talking more football.
We'll have more guests stop by along the way.
We had TJ Finley on a couple of weeks ago.
So check us out.
Lockdown SEC.
Yeah.
Yeah, he kind of gave you a tip of the hat.
He's like, yeah, I'm really thinking about transferring.
And then of course he entered the portal.
So that's pretty cool.
Yeah.
For Lockdown SEC listeners, you can find my show, Lockdown Auburn available wherever you
get your podcasts and on YouTube.
And we will see you on Monday.
This has been Lockdown Auburn and Lockdown SEC.
The Denver Nuggets are one step closer to reaching the NBA Finals after sending the Phoenix Suns
packing on Thursday night.
On a long enough timeline, Nicole Yolka wins over everyone.
The Chicago Blackhawks won the NHL draft lottery and with it the opportunity to add Connor Bredar
to their roster.
I do think the Blackhawks fans are absolutely deserving of a generational talent, like Connor
Bredar to be the face of this city moving forward.
And the 2023 NFL season is officially set to kick off in Kansas City where the Chiefs
will host the Detroit Lions on September 7th.
This could be a prime chance for the Lions to make their claim.
For more on all these stories, make sure to check out the newest episodes of Locked
On Nuggets, Locked On Blackhawks and Locked On NFL.
Then check out Lockdown's newest series, Paving the Way.
Each episode will highlight a different voice from across the network, a Locked On Host
whose journey in the industry has helped pave the way toward creating a more inclusive
and diverse media landscape that's Paving the Way presented by State Farm available now
on the Lockdown Presents podcast feed.
A prime member, you can listen to this Locked On podcast add free on Amazon Music.
Download the Amazon Music app today!
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