PFF likes Payton Thorne over Robby Ashford for Auburn Football's next starter
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I believe Peyton Thorne will be Auburn starter this season and when you look at PFF, the numbers
support it.
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Joining me today, special guest, Max Chadwick, college football analyst over at Pro Football
Focus.
Max, Auburn fans got some exciting news, I actually got in several waves of exciting news, but
of course the biggest being Peyton Thorne, Auburn's newest quarterback and Max, I believe
he will be the starter.
I know there's a lot of Auburn fans that love Robbie Ashford, but I think what Peyton Thorne
brings to a Hugh Freeze offense supports the fact that he will be the starter at Pro Football
Focus like Storm more than Ashford as of this one.
Yeah, 1000% Zach, thank you so much for having me on here.
Of course.
I would say Peyton Thorne should be the betting favorite right now to be the starter.
Now of course this will be a battle that we see throughout the summer, but I think week
one, Peyton Thorne is the guy that Hugh Freeze is going to roll with and I know he said a
lot of Auburn fans love Robbie Ashford.
I also love a lot of the flashes that Robbie Ashford has.
The ceiling that Robbie Ashford has is definitely higher than the ceiling that Peyton Thorne
has.
However, and the reason why Auburn wasn't able to make a bowl game last year, there is a
low floor there with Robbie Ashford.
Now of course players in college always improve and Robbie Ashford could very much take the
jump and become an elite college correct with those tools.
But if he doesn't, I think Peyton Thorne gives the high floor for Auburn and you know, he's
a quarterback of a winning team of course with Kenneth Walker at Michigan State when
they won double digit games.
He had a solid year last year, worse year for sure, but it's still a solid year for Michigan
State this past season.
I think he's the safe option for Auburn and for a team that's trying to get back to a
bowl game, I think that's the option that Hugh Freeze is going to roll with at least
to start the season.
And the pieces around him have gotten better, right?
I mean, the offensive line continues to be good.
It seems like every few days Hugh Freeze is adding another offensive lineman.
The last three cycles, Max, prior to Hugh Freeze getting here, Auburn had an eight offensive
lineman since Hugh Freeze has been here nine.
And so just kind of an emphasis on protecting the quarterback, right?
I mean, you need a good offensive line to do that.
And you saw an effective running game and a stat came out where when a running back has
150 yards next to Peyton Thorne, he's significantly better because of course, what quarterback
is it when you have a running game?
They didn't have a running game last year.
Like you said, they had it two years ago with Kenneth Walker.
You guys really liked our quest Hunter and your rankings.
And so how do you expect the running game to play into what Peyton Thorne can bring to
an offense?
I think the bread and butter of this Auburn offense could be the run game.
And it knows it sounds a little bit weird saying that when Tank Bigsby was just drafted
by the Jacksonville Jaguars, but you mentioned before, Dark West Hunter, I think is a star.
And I think he's a guy that has really been overshadowed, obviously, with Tank Bigsby
there.
And I'm really excited to see what he can do next year.
A lot like Robbie Ashford in some ways, not in terms of the low floor, but the ceiling
that you see with this guy is absurd.
He made some Georgia defenders look stupid on someplace.
So Dark West Hunter is a guy that I think could easily become one of the superstar running
back in college football and a guy that might be a sleeper right now for a lot of people.
But I think he's super talented running back.
And I think he's definitely going to help out Peyton Thorne in that run game.
I'm with you.
And then you mix that in with the scheme that Hugh Freeze brings and just kind of the success
that he'd have with quarterbacks.
It's going to be fun.
It's going to be fun to see whoever wins this quarterback battle is going to be in a good
situation.
So tell me when you guys look, when pro football focus comes out with all these numbers and
these advanced metrics, I mean, you guys do a fantastic job, a fantastic job.
When you look at Peyton Thorne's numbers, what stands out to you specifically about his
play?
So the first thing I would point out when comparing him to Robbie Ashford is that, you
know, they're similar in terms of like the good throws and that you'll see from them.
But the difference between two and ultimately why I think Peyton Thorne is ultimately going
to win the job is that he just doesn't commit as many turnover worthy plays that Robbie
Ashford does.
And the reason why he had over 20 points better passing grade than Robbie Ashford.
Ashford had a 50.1 passing grade this past season.
Peyton Thorne's 70.7 and Peyton Thorne regressed this past year too.
So you could see him even improved to what he was showing in 2021.
But you look at the turnover worthy plays.
Robbie Ashford, 4.4% of his dropbacks ended up in a turnover worthy play, which is a pretty
high percentage.
Peyton Thorne only 3% at that rate.
So I think he's a guy that is just not going to commit as a turnover worthy plays as Robbie
Ashford is not going to put the ball in harm's way as much.
And he might not have the pure arm talent that Robbie Ashford does, but I still think
Peyton Thorne has really, really good touch on his throws.
And Robbie Ashford has sub-50% completion percentage and Peyton Thorne I think is more
accurate than that for sure.
So that's why I think he's definitely got the higher floor than Robbie Ashford and really
good touch on his throws too for one of us.
Yeah, even in an off year and a crummy offense, 60% completion percentage.
And Auburn fans are like dying for that with the defense that I think Auburn's could have
this season paired with a running game that we've already touched on.
You kind of want a guy that you just can trust that's not going to turn the ball over.
And that's going to complete 60% of his passes.
If you do that, if you told me like you can take that right now, I think Auburn has a
chance to win eight games all of a sudden because I think the fact that you're raising
the floor a little bit gives you a chance to win an extra game and a half to two games
potentially the season.
Exactly.
And you know, if you told me Peyton Thorne is going to have to carry the load of this
offense, which he was kind of asked to do last year at Michigan State, I would say,
you know, I don't know if Auburn is going to maybe make that bowl game.
Maybe they'll be right around the five, six win mark next year.
But the fact that you mentioned before, like they improved the offensive line Gunner Britain,
the Western Kentucky transfer.
I'm a huge fan of love.
I think it's a really, really good tackle for you guys now.
So offensive lines improving.
Obviously, like I said, Dark West Hunter should be the lead guy in that offense.
And like we mentioned before, Peyton Thorne was a very successful quarterback when he had,
you know, when he wasn't the guy on the offense.
Well, Kenneth Walker the third was the guy.
And I'm not saying that Tark West Wonder will be as good as KW three, but I am saying
that Peyton Thorne, the fact that he doesn't need to be the guy, that makes me more confident
in this Auburn team going forward.
Whereas if you said, Hey, the quarterback needs to be the guy, then maybe I would say,
Okay, let's roll the dice on Robbie Ashford because I do think the ceiling is much higher,
but it is a role of the dice with Robbie Ashford for sure.
If you're rolling him as a starter, but the fact that you're not relying on paint or
to be the guy, that's when you want the high floor quarterback.
And like you mentioned, the defense has a lot of pieces, even though they've lost some
guys to the draft, like Derek Hall, I still am a huge fan of DJ James, the corner for
you guys.
I think he's a stud.
So yeah, I think that with the defense and the run game, you just want safe at quarterback.
And Robbie Ashford, as from what we've seen, isn't a safe quarterback.
Peyton Thorne is more of a safe quarterback that I think you freeze will opt for at least
early in the season.
Yeah, Auburn has a few PFF darling that I want to ask you about and a few that transferred
in.
But yeah, you mentioned going to Britain, like left tackle Lester Kentucky, right tackle
now for Auburn, then the guy that's playing left tackle now, Dylan Wade, I think he scores
pretty highly based on what he did at Tulsa.
I always actually say to Lane and people give me a heck for it.
So I want to make sure I said that right.
He played it Tulsa last year.
But but seriously, both of those guys should allow whoever is at quarterback to excel a
little bit more.
But Max, I want to ask you, I want to ask you, it's a small sample size.
It's growing more and more every year.
It's with this new era of college football.
But can you use the grades that you guys have at pre FF to kind of project what they can
do when their total setting has changed?
I mean, you're talking about a guy going from Michigan State to the heart of SEC.
I want to touch on that in just a moment right here on lockdown.
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So Max, you look at it and patent thorn in the 70s and his two years as a starter for
Michigan State, you take that information, a system that wasn't super great, especially
last year, you put it in a new system with you freeze that we think is going to be very
quarterback friendly on the planes this year.
What type of success have we seen with quarterbacks that maybe scored that with you guys and then
move to a different setting?
I mean, we saw BONIX do it.
Right.
We saw BONIX go to Oregon and be great.
Are there other tendencies that kind of pointed this being a possibility, that big jump coming?
Yeah, I think a jump could be expected, especially since he graded better at least in 2021 with
a 77.6 grade, which is pretty good, honestly.
And 71.8 this past season, like we mentioned before.
But yeah, it always is different when you're transitioning from a different conference.
Now, I will say he is going from the big 10 to the SEC, which is still a jump.
I'm not denying that, but it is around the same competition level.
Then you talk about guys like like a metropolitan way and Gunnar Britain, they're going from
a group of five conference to the best conference in America.
That's when you, and especially offensive line too, they're not facing the dudes on defense
that they are in the SEC.
So that's when you're maybe expecting them to take a little bit of a step back.
But Gunnar Britain's another guy that I'm still really high on for next year.
But yeah, I think Peyton Thorne, you could expect a jump for sure, especially like I
mentioned before, I think the situation at Auburn next year is going to be more favorable
to him than the situation at Michigan State this past season.
You know, when he had a favorable situation, like he mentioned, he was really good.
It was very solid, I should say, at quarterback.
And he was still solid this past year too, even in unfavorable situation.
So yeah, I would expect his jump, especially as a college kid going into another year as
a starter.
Yeah, I would expect Peyton Thorne to take a jump, not only in his play, but it's great
as well.
Max, when you look at Peyton Thorne and you put him hypothetically against other quarterbacks
in the SEC, where do you think Peyton Thorne will rank at the end of the season among SEC
quarterbacks, assuming he's a starter?
I just asked you an impossible question.
We never going to come back on the show again because I'm asking you these questions.
But yeah, I mean, if you had to guess, just shooting from the hip, where would you say?
So that'd be interesting.
I definitely there are some SEC quarterbacks.
I'm a huge fan of next season.
And guys like Jaden Daniels, obviously the LSU quarterback coming back.
Sure.
You can make the argument will be a top half of the SEC quarterback next year.
And I do think that there are a lot of quarterbacks in SEC that are gone.
Obviously, talking about Anthony Richardson, Bryce Young, Will Levis, Stetson Bennett.
So there is an opportunity there for Peyton Thorne to emerge in that SEC.
But I would still say there are some guys really good quarterbacks coming back, like
I said, Jaden Daniels, KJ Jefferson, the Arkansas quarterback coming back.
Would you say KJ Jefferson's a really good quarterback?
I would say so.
I'm a fan of KJ Jefferson.
I think I like his rushing ability.
I think that's ultimately what pushes him up for me.
Yeah, I think as a pastor, there's still some warts there to clean up.
But I like KJ Jefferson enough.
And I like a lot.
Who's that?
I just guess.
I like Joe Milton a lot, the Tennessee quarterback.
I think he's got a big arm.
He's obviously had some issues from his time at Michigan.
And also when he was the Tennessee starter before Hennen Hooker took over.
But I think arm talent wise, if that offense does to him what it did to Hennen Hooker,
I think he could be a superstar.
Yeah, that's a great system for him to play in too.
Oh, 1000%.
All the vertical throws that they have in that offense.
Spencer Radler is who knows what is up with that guy.
He didn't have a great year this past season.
But I know South Carolina fans are all over him.
So yeah, I think expecting Peyton Thorne to be in that top half of the SEC, especially
with so many guys being gone.
Hennen Hooker, of course, gone to and sets the Bennett.
Yeah, that's I think a top half of the SEC quarterback is I think fair to expect from
Peyton.
I think Auburn people would take that at this point.
If you were given a top half of the SEC, because I think that means other things went right.
I think it means your offensive line took a step forward.
I think you're running games at least stayed where it was at.
If not improved, it kind of helps set things up.
And I think a receiver or two has to step up in order for Peyton Thorne to be a top half
quarterback in the SEC.
Can guys other than Ken and Brown step up?
And it sounds like Auburn's close with some other transfer receivers.
I mean, does it all click on offense?
That's certainly something to look at.
All right.
So there's some PFF darlings still on this roster that we haven't talked about.
You guys really liked our quest, Hunter.
I thought you liked tomorrow, Austin more, but I just looked it up while you were talking
and he's like a mid 60s player.
I thought he was higher than that.
But DJ James is a guy that I think he's the second highest graded SEC corner that's returning.
I think only Kool-Aid McInstery is higher.
I love DJ James.
I mean, I think he's the best corner in the SEC.
And I think he has to do a little bit more than some of these other top corners in the
SEC because I think Auburn's past rush isn't quite as good as what Kool-Aid McInstery has
in front of him at Bama or what he's had in front of him at Bama.
But yeah, what do you see when you look at the grades that DJ James gets?
Yeah, with that, I mean, he is one of the highest graded cornerbacks.
Like you mentioned, returning and this past season, he earned almost an 86 coverage grade,
which is very, very good.
Obviously, a little bit of an older corner, a little bit skinnier too.
He's got good height and good length at 6 foot 1, but 174, he's a little bit skinnier.
But I am a huge fan of like you mentioned, DJ James.
He's a really good off coverage corner.
Doesn't really do a lot of press coverage where they get smart with his frame.
I wish you did more max.
I wish you did more.
I so do I.
When I was watching his tape, actually, a few days ago, I really wish he did more too.
But yeah, he allowed about a 40% completion percentage, which is excellent this past season
and nine fours and completions as well.
So yeah, he's a guy.
I love the mentality that DJ James has too.
And when I was watching all of his targets this past season, yeah, he is definitely, I
don't know if I'm willing to say he's better than cool in the chemistry, who I think is
the best corner, not only the SEC, but in the country.
But I think DJ James is certainly a top probably 15 or 20 corner in the country.
And I think he has a chance to really emerge next year as one of the premier corners in
the SEC.
He's really good.
Another guy that you guys really, really like is Brian Batty, the USF transfer.
And I think that's something that surprised me a little bit.
But what do you see when you look at Brian Batty's great so far?
I mean, very good in special teams.
And then we'll see what kind of role he plays in the offense as well.
Yeah, of course.
And I think Brian Batty is another guy who we were talking before, you know, making to
transition from going from the American Athletic Conference, the SEC is going to be a jump.
Do not expect him to be the guy in that Auburn conference as good as Dark West Hunter is.
So yeah, I think Brian Batty, though, is a really good number two back.
And he grated out pretty well, like you mentioned before, not a great receiver, but he's a really,
really good runner.
Yeah, I don't know if I expect him to be too much more than a nice complimentary back
to Dark West Hunter.
He's a very small back, like very, very small.
He's five, eight, one, sixty five.
So he's kind of more of like a scat back in that aspect.
But yeah, Brian Batty, I think, is a guy that Auburn fans can expect some electricity when
he's on the field, you know, taking some carries from, from Dark West Hunter, where he goes
to silence to get a little gatory break.
But yeah, I think Brian Batty's really good.
And I think he's a guy that can break some tackles as well.
And yeah, he's smaller, but he's still an electric back to.
So I'm a fan of Brian Batty, for sure.
So what did he do to test and grade so well within, you know, however you guys do all
of this?
Because his offensive grade was an 87 and a half and his run grade was a 91.6.
I mean, that's pretty, that's pretty, I mean, that's not much different than what Tank
Green allowed at.
No, not at all.
And again, I think the most important thing I think to whenever I do any of these pockets,
I try to say is like the grades are not the end all be all as I'm sure a lot of people
like to make them out to be.
Like there are some guys who grade out really well that I'm like, I don't think he's better
than this guy or whatever.
But I think Brian Batty for sure is a guy that really I mentioned before breaks tackles
that are really good rate, which is really good to see for a guy who's only 165 pounds.
You expect to go easy, go down easy on contact.
He broke a tackle on like more than 30% of his carries this past year, which is a very,
very good rate.
And also like as a smaller back, he's still, you expect to be a faster back and he is exactly
that.
You know, he had 20 carries his past season, at least 15 yards.
So he's a guy that I would expect, you know, to make some big plays for that Auburn back
field, whatever he does get the ball.
I don't think he'll ever be a full time starter for the Tigers, but I do think it'll be a
really good explosive complimentary back for Auburn.
Max Chadwick, thank you so much for your time.
How could people check out everything you've got going on, man?
Of course.
Yeah.
So all my articles are at PFF.com.
You can check out my Twitter, TikTok at Chad or Squirt.
And I also, I have a new show now called Preferred Walk On where I'm interviewing a ton of big
time players.
Caleb Williams, I've interviewed Jordan Travis, Ola Fisciano, Joel, a ton of other guys to
Braylon Allen.
So yeah, we're doing a lot of interviews in that channel.
So go check it out.
Preferred Walk On.
Coming up, our friend, Jay Stevens, host of Locked On Buckeyes joins us to tell us about
Auburn's newest receiver.
Stay tuned.
This is Locked On Auburn.
And joining us now here on Locked On Auburn for the first time, Locked On crossover, Locked
On Buckeyes host Jay Stevens hanging out with us.
Yeah, we were joking.
Auburn and Ohio State don't cross paths too often, but great to have you on the show,
buddy.
So tell us about new Auburn wide receiver, former Buckeye, Caleb Burton.
Really good high school receiver.
A guy that when it got to Ohio State, there was some thought that down the road, he would
be a receiver that Ohio State could ride or lean on during crucial moments.
But as you know, Zach, Ohio State recruits elite receivers every single year.
And when you have a couple guys in, I believe, Noah Rogers and Carnotate, who catch touchdown
passes during the spring game, it's going to kind of set you back if you're an older
guy who didn't get playing time a year ago, probably will get playing time.
Now, this Brandon, and it's another freshman who's probably going to be talked about or
thought about as a guy who might be in a backup role on the two D is kind of one of
those things was like, if I'm Caleb Burton, should I stand Ohio State or should I go?
And he decided to leave.
I think he's going to be a really good player for Auburn.
And honestly, if you get him for two, three, four years, whatever it is, you might be looking
back and saying, man, getting him when we did at that point in his career was a great
move for the Auburn Tigers.
Yeah, it's a weird situation because he was so highly touted coming out of high school,
you know, a Texas native that always kind of gives you a little bit of a plus an edge.
And then the fact that you're a receiver and Ohio State wanted you, Jay.
I mean, that's kind of, that's kind of the Auburn perspective on this.
Well, it's like, well, if Ohio State wanted to play receiver, possibly down the line,
like, great, sure, sign me up.
But yeah, it's tough to evaluate because he didn't play last year, red shirt season.
But so I guess my question to you is when would he have played?
Would he have ever played?
Or would this been a thing where, you know, by the time he's a junior, Ohio State and
his coaching staff, they're fired up on these other four and five stars that are coming
in and, you know, maybe the ship is sailed.
But do you think he ever would have played at Ohio State?
Probably let's say it was a little bit of true sophomore year.
If you would have stayed at Ohio State, assuming last year, what's the view of the show he
had the rest of the year, rest of the freshmen, correct, rest of the freshmen.
So probably two years.
I mean, realistically, but that's the thing.
Realistically, you're looking at two more years before you get on the field.
And I'm not just saying like, start Zach.
I mean, literally just get on the field as a receiver.
Yeah.
You kind of got to utilize the portal and use it to your favor.
Because if you don't, you give you a guy that's looking at not playing college football,
not because you were injured two or three times during your career, could you stay that
a school and you were never going to play it?
I do believe when it comes to the future, just had the NFL draft, what was it, a couple
of weeks ago, you're a guy that thinks, hey, I'm, I can be good enough at some point to
be in the NFL to get drafted.
Maybe staying at Ohio State's thing at school you committed to originally is not the best
move for you.
Maybe the best move is going somewhere else.
Now, Zach, I will say all burden better, get a good quarterback.
Painthorn's good.
I like painthorn.
Don't get me wrong.
Sure.
I'll help a guy like Kayla Burton be all it to be on the football field because if you
do that, not only will Kayla Burton get drafted, but also that quarterback will as well.
Yeah.
And hopefully that's the case.
And that's what Hugh Freeze is working on.
Walker White, of course, appears to be the quarterback of the future for the Tigers.
We'll see if he and Burton connect down the road.
That's a fun thing to think about, Jay.
So what do you expect Burton's game to be?
I know it's kind of limited.
We're basing this off of what he did in high school and then kind of practice reports,
right, from what he did at Ohio State.
He's built like a wide receiver, a slot guy.
Is that kind of what his role was as far as you can tell at Ohio State?
Yeah.
I think that slot role is where he's best suited, especially when you're weighing in,
what is he, 511, 169 at Ohio State?
Very, very, very, very slender frame.
So even if he's going to be playing slot, you want him to beef up a little bit, gain at
least at minimum 10 pounds to kind of be able to withstand the hits from the linebackers
and over the catches he makes over the middle.
Because if not, he could get broken in half because those hits are going to be pretty brutal.
But no, I think he's right.
It's going to be a slot guy.
One thing I love when I watch him play is that is how good he is at high pointing the
ball, catching the ball in traffic and using two hands to bring the ball down.
And I do believe that at 169, if he wasn't able to do that, he probably would have gone
to Ohio State, just being honest with you.
Because if you're small like that, you have to have some really good exceptional traits.
That's one of the ones that he has in his back there.
But no, he's just a slot guy.
I mean, if he gains enough weight, he could be outside.
I don't think it's going to happen.
Probably a slot guy going forward, but probably a really good one in a couple of years.
Yeah.
Yeah.
I guess my next question is, do you think he can play right away in the SEC?
I mean, the level, the big 10 level of the SEC, I think it's closer than some SEC people
would like to admit, Jay.
But I mean, is this a guy where maybe if he wasn't at Ohio State, maybe if he was at
an Iowa or if he was at an Nebraska or now, of course, you know, Auburn, a team that is
used to being in the top half of the SEC and he frees to certainly try to get him back to
that positioning.
Is he ready to play right away or do you think he still needs some seasoning in this league?
I would say seasoning, Zach, big 10 people or house that people will not like what I
about to say.
The SEC is headed and showed us above every conference in the country.
And so I'll try to be respectful, Jay.
I was trying to be respectful.
That's all it is.
No, let's be honest.
No, Zach, no, the SEC is different.
No, I do think it'll be some seasoning because, granny, you're going, you're practicing, but
you're doing a lot of scout team reps.
You're not even practicing like the true playbook.
You learn something quickly, helping the offense, excuse me, helping the defense get ready for
the next week.
You kind of got to fine tune yourself.
Now, granny, in those moments, you're still fine tuning your craft, your route running,
your blocking, all those things.
But maybe he doesn't understand the playbook.
Maybe he didn't get enough time to understand the playbook and wrap his hand around it because
he wasn't doing it on the field.
Maybe he could talk it out, but in actual practice, maybe it was different.
See, these are things that I don't know.
He didn't play.
And so if you play, you can pour those practice reports and things like that.
But for more seasoning, I really do think that.
But honestly, one year down in Auburn, I think it can be a really good player for the Tigers
next year.
I just don't think right away it's the right decision to make to make him a big piece of
the offense in year one down in Auburn.
Yeah.
You love his traits and I'm with you.
I think he'll turn into a pretty solid wide receiver in this league.
But how quickly he can get there is the biggest question.
And so it seems like there's a little bit of urgency with Hugh Freeze and the guys that
he's bringing in because receiver is certainly a position of deed for the Tigers.
I mean, it seems like there's one, two, maybe three guys that I think they feel comfortable
with.
I think there's a big drop off.
And so he's going to have opportunity, Jay.
I think he's going to have opportunity to play early in his time on the planes.
You mentioned his name earlier.
You're a big 10 guy.
Just your general thoughts when Ohio State played Peyton Ford.
I think it was a beat down every time they played.
So it's not really the best way to analyze a quarterback.
I think he's good.
I think he's a good quarterback.
I just think that no, Tucker might be trying to go a different direction out there and
he's Lansing.
I think he's a good quarterback, a solid guy.
He's a power by starter.
So like I keep saying like solid, good, like really adverse type of words.
I think he has a power five starter.
I just think that near something maybe special being created down in Auburn.
He said, Hey, how about I go for Michigan State down to the SEC and also I'll go back
to it again, mention the SEC and how good the football is.
I mentioned the NFL draft.
If he wants to get drafted higher, if he does good things down and down in the SEC,
that does a lot for NFL teams and NFL scouts.
So I don't know if this was a move for the future being making more money in the draft.
But if it is, Zach, it makes sense to me.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Hugh Freeze has got a pretty good track record with quarterbacks too.
So we'll see if we'll see if Peyton Thorne is the next player to benefit from all of that.
Jay, thank you so much for your time.
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