Biggest Wild Card Teams + FRESH Portal Intel | Late Kick Live Ep. 386
So I'm reading one of the trade publications earlier today.
And that trade publication is talking about this concept, this new age evolving concept
that they think they've stumbled upon.
And that concept is there may be a year-round market for college football content.
And it just threw me against a wall.
It's like, maybe it will work.
Who knows?
Or put another way, welcome to the party we've been throwing for a long time.
You're all welcome.
You're just a little bit late, but welcome nonetheless.
It is Thursday.
It is May 11th, the year of our Lord 2023.
We're jam-packed.
High atop a much more tranquil downtown Nashville, Tennessee than it was the last time you and
I spoke.
Wildcard teams all over this great sport of ours.
And I've got to talk to you about several of them tonight.
We've still got portal intel to share.
We've still got guys that are floating out there in the portal.
And they've still got a land somewhere and a couple of them have.
So I got to get you up to date on that.
I started to take that fine-tooth comb that we own.
And we started to brush our way through these different conferences earlier today and started
to look at some of the biggest conference games.
Now this is normally the stuff that we would wait to talk about in July or August.
And I'm not promising you that this is the last time I'm going to talk schedule.
But I do want to at least start to broach the topic of which one of these conference
games is a little bit bigger than the others.
I got some to talk about in the SEC tonight.
I've also got the FSU Moo Tracker.
I've got a crushingly disappointing statement from producer Jesse in regard to that.
They're watching us in Melbourne, Florida.
Little Rock Arkansas, HOMA, Louisiana, and Flagstaff, Arizona.
It has been such a busy week for us.
And I cannot tell you hardly any of what we've been up to.
But it's okay because you'll find out in due time.
The biggest breaking news this week is I think my cough's gone.
I think the congestion is gone.
And if you hate the way I sound when I'm congested, it pales in comparison to how badly I hate
the way I sound when I'm congested.
Candidly, I wouldn't watch or listen to the show.
It's bad for business for me to tell you that, but I wouldn't watch or listen.
And yet you guys have.
Our numbers haven't dipped any.
And that fascinates me and I thank you so much for that.
So my present to you, I'm not wasting any more time.
We're diving into the show tonight.
I was looking around earlier today.
That's going to be a gift later, by the way.
I was looking around and I'm looking at the schedule for this year and I'm looking at
some of these teams and I'm looking at some of these over-unders that have come out.
We got some wild card teams out here.
We got some teams that Vegas and me and you and everyone else is kind of wondering, how
do we nail this team down?
And you know the first one's going to be because we have neglected them for the better
part of a month is Tennessee.
I walked in the building today.
I said, Jesse, we need to talk about Tennessee.
Let's do the Tennessee mood tracker.
And noted, Volhader, producer Jesse said, no, we already did that.
And I said, well, we're putting them in the show somehow.
So here they are.
Tennessee is a wild card team.
For obvious reasons, we watched what Hennen Hooker did last year.
We watched what that coaching staff was able to do.
We watched what Jalen Hyatt did even after Cedric Tillman goes down.
So you had a superstar wide receiver emerge.
You had a superstar quarterback emerge and neither one of them are there anymore.
And so the most, the most shallow casual preview magazine only sort of person out there would
say, well, they're gone.
That means Tennessee comes back to earth because it's not been that long ago, obviously
that we were living in a world where Tennessee was, well, they were, they were really, really
down to earth.
Then last year they weren't.
So you know, it's that whole, well, did they catch lightning in a bottle or are they going
to be a mainstay player?
Joe Milton looked a really good netball game and I'm not, I'm not going to rehash a lot
of this because you already know that.
What I'm doing is I'm trying to give you both sides of why they're a wild card.
You see, cause until you've sustained excellence, until you've sustained a run of well above
average play, there's a lot that can still go wrong.
There's a lot that's still unproven about you.
And that even takes into account from Memphis all the way to Knoxville and everywhere in
between how much confidence there is, just bubbling, emanating out of that program.
I've talked to you for a while about how I think they've recruited defensively a little
bit better that gets overshadowed, obviously because of the offensive production that they
have put up and they plan to still put up this year and in years moving forward, but
they don't have that element of surprise, which we've seen notably a few times in the
SEC.
We've seen it elsewhere like Michigan State did this couple of years ago.
They snuck up on everyone.
Well, what was their encore?
It was terrible.
I do not expect a Michigan State 2022 style drop off for Tennessee this year.
They get Bama and Georgia in the back half of the schedule.
So even if the worst were to happen and we watched them against Virginia, which is being
played here in Nashville, and they look a little shaky, a little rickety, it's okay,
because they've still got time and they've got Austin P and they go to Florida early and
they got UTSA, but they've got that bi-week before they play A&M and go to Bama and they've
got Georgia second to last week of the year.
So whatever they're going to be offensively, they will long since it figured it out by the
time they get to the back half.
That's a wild car team.
I will also tell you right now, they're over under when total is nine, according to Caesars
and the SEC Championship updated odds plus 1,400.
So there you go.
There's your up to the minute betting market numbers on Tennessee.
Let me go to the big 10 and let me talk about Penn State.
And let me tell you that there's perception, there's reality or what reality could be,
I guess.
So perception is the big 10 East is a two team race.
And there's a reason it's that perception because it has been that over the last few
years.
Jesse, what was it?
2015, I think when they won the big 10, 16, yeah, so almost, they have not gone to the
playoff, which brings in that whole have not done some, have not done something versus cannot
do something theory that we talk about on the show all the time.
They're going to have a pretty darn good defense this year.
The streets are saying it may be an elite defense.
We'll see.
But also you've got a new quarterback to break in there.
Now again, in the preview magazine world, that always means big question mark.
That always means potential drop off, especially when you have a multi year starter in Sir
Sean Clifford.
And then you're going to a not a true freshman, but still an unknown commodity, albeit a
very highly rated unknown commodity and Drew Oller.
Now we were up there a couple of weeks ago.
We talked to him at length.
We watched him practice.
I feel fine about him.
But I understand if there is some apprehension out there elsewhere.
The receiver core about to get CFS in there.
I think for the summer, it was a very incomplete picture of the receiver core in spring.
So we got to watch that.
That's on the more micro level on the macro level.
It's just collectively have they have they raised their level of play to match the Ohio
States to match the Michigan or to put a finer point on it.
Can you knock off one of them?
Because if they can, who knows how that playoff picture plays out?
Who knows how the division?
The picture plays out, but also, you know, I am not a believer in that whole two team
race theory, especially this year.
It'd be one thing if you had, you know, like a CJ Stroud returning a quarterback for Ohio
State, even though the Buckeyes didn't win the division last year, when you have that
caliber talent at the quarterback position for one of those big teams, that makes them
the definitive or odds on favor.
Well, this year you got McCarthy up at Michigan.
You don't know who's going to start at Ohio State.
And we know who's going to start at Penn State, but Drew Oller has yet to write his stories,
yet to cast his own mold of what we should expect from him.
And yet Vegas is a believer because the over underwind total for Penn State's nine and
a half.
You may say, oh, that's not high yet is friends.
Nine and a half is pretty high number.
Miami down in the ACC last year was a disaster.
Last year was a train wreck.
Oklahoma vibes from what they did last year.
Now with Oklahoma, same thing with Miami, pretty much everyone expects improvement this
year.
Question is not, are they going to improve?
The question is, are we going to see a quantum leap?
Are we going to see just a little hop in the skip forward?
You know, be happy to make a bowl game versus competing for a spot in the ACC championship
game.
Everyone expects improvement.
How much improvement from Miami Mario's been there one year, kind of one and a half
cycles now.
They have recruited classes ranked 16th and 7th respectively.
Their portal classes have been ranked 12th and 15th respectively.
They've got adequate talent.
They missed on their coordinator hires last year.
That's pretty obvious.
And Kevin Steele for different reasons than Josh Gaddis just really didn't work out down
there.
It's hard to blame him.
You know, it's hard to blame him because I'd be lying to you if I said I didn't think
that Josh Gaddis was a grand slam hire.
You just, you don't have to overthink the room there.
The guys at Michigan by way of Alabama, he wins the Broils award.
Mario hires him away and you, you wouldn't be crazy to think, wow, that's a big hire.
Perceptionally, it's a big hire.
Recruiting wise, it's a big hire.
Do just one, the Broils award, which goes to the top assistant coach in the country.
You would think he knows what he's doing and it never clicked.
It's like trying to light wet wood on fire.
Just never clicked.
And that set him back.
You know, cause there are other parts of that program right now.
There's a, there's pretty good vibe around the program.
There is a pretty good synergy within the program.
Recruiting like I said, it's going pretty well.
They've added some guys from the portal.
It's just that when you go 0 for 2 on your coordinator hires right out of the gate, that
is how you fall start as a program.
That's how you fall start as a new head coach.
That doesn't mean it's, it's terminal or anything.
It does mean that you could have a really bad first year and you could lose some folks
along the way.
You could lose some believers.
And that's okay.
If I were a head coach, if that happened at paid state, I would keep a smile on my face
and I'd punch the steering wheel when I got in my car every night, but I would keep a
smile on my face publicly and I would just take note of all these people who patted me
on the back and all these people who were abandoning me now.
Fortunately, we don't really have that problem at paid state because we control our schedule.
So, you know, we just win every week.
But Miami is a big wildcard team because as much as you guys, some of you judging my,
by my DMs wouldn't be surprised if they just cratered again this year.
There are other folks who expect a great big rebound this year.
And I think the, the healthy chunk of you expect something in the middle and maybe not
be surprised with either outcome.
That is the definition of a wildcard team.
I will tell you this.
There are different schools of thought out there about how close they were to losing
Tyler Van Dyke.
Even within the Alabama community and the Miami community.
There are different schools of thought about how close they were to losing Van Dyke irrelevant.
They didn't lose him.
He's there.
That over underwind total seven and a half.
Play ball game on.
And let's see if they make another move or two in the portal.
They've had a really good run of it last week.
Notre Dame.
Next up in the wildcard department.
Notre Dame.
Different than all the other teams because obviously this is not a team in a conference.
And if you're new to college football, that may be news to you.
I never take it for granted.
Excuse me.
I never take for granted that everyone listening to the show has just watched the sport for
20 some odd years.
And if you're new to the table, like let's just say you are an, an NBA fan and you watch
some NFL, but you're just not really familiar with college.
It may come as a shot to you that I'm talking about all these other teams in these conferences
and then I get to Notre Dame and say they're not in one and you say, what?
They're not in what?
This is college football and don't come down here knocking it because this is maybe not
the way all of us love it.
I don't have a problem with it, but it's at least the way we run things here.
It's not, it's not perfectly shaped.
It's not a perfect circle.
Some of the corners are rounded off and this, this compartment over here is a little heavier
than that compartment there.
The big 12 has 14 teams.
The big 10 has 14 teams.
The Pac 12 has like, I don't know how many they're going to have day to day.
Yeah, it's a little weird, little wonky.
That's the way it works in college football.
So Notre Dame is a wildcard team for a few reasons.
They're a wildcard team every year because of how many different conferences they touch.
They play Ohio State this year.
They could shake up that picture, not the big 10 picture per se, but they could shake
up the playoff picture for a big 10 team.
They play USC every year.
They play Clemson again this year and I think they go down there late in the year.
They play Louisville, dark horse team that we have featured prominently in the ACC.
They play NC State.
So, you know, they've got a lot of chances to affect pictures in a lot of different conferences.
Sam Hartman's the main other reason at quarterback in the transfer portal, why this is a wildcard
team.
They're playing a game in Ireland, whatever.
They closed strong last year.
Recruiting class, they finished number 12.
So, it was a really solid class.
I've told you I thought it was overlooked because they had a ton of four star guys and
no five star guys, which is what it is.
It's still a very, very solid class.
They're over under win totals eight and a half to win the national title plus 2,200
odds.
Very much a wildcard team.
The last wildcard team is probably the biggest wildcard team.
So you can tell I did not go in any order here.
But the last wildcard team, where do you think I'm going to go?
You're listening on podcast.
How do you not go Texas A&M?
Texas A&M has given birth to my usage of my favorite metaphor.
And I try and find a team to talk about this every single year.
And Texas A&M is absolutely that team.
What you got to look for to use my favorite metaphor is you got to find a team with a
head coach who specializes in one side of the ball, and then he's making a move and
he's bringing in a coordinator also normally on that side of the ball.
And he's, he's promising that he's delegating authority or play calling responsibility to
that new hire.
Well we got all those boxes checked because we got Bobby Petrino in here and he is the
coordinator now for Jimbo Fisher.
But it's Jimbo's offense, right?
Well maybe not this year or maybe it is or maybe it's Bobby Petrino calling Jimbo's offense.
And then my metaphor is always the dad in the passenger seat trying to let the sun dry
for the first time.
But then all of a sudden you leave the church parking lot where it's just easy to donut
your way to death.
And then all of a sudden you're out on the main road.
And here comes one of those logging trucks.
Do you reach over?
Do you grab the wheel?
Just make sure you get past the truck.
In other words, does Jimbo grab the wheel during that Miami game?
Does he grab the wheel during the Arkansas game?
Or does he, does he let it go?
Does he just kiss his hand, touch the roof and come what may?
I'm teaching this kid how to drive.
Is Jimbo come what may Bobby Petrino's my offensive coordinator or is he?
It's going to be a week to week sort of thing.
Big wild car team here.
Because I got a lot of Aggie friends who have a lot of strong opinions on this.
And I also think that this is one of those teams where what they do this year transcends
just the Texas A&M fan base because I think Jimbo has gotten his program to a point where
everyone's got an opinion on him.
You can go ask a New Mexico state fan.
You can go ask a UNLV fan.
Hey, Jimbo Fisher, Texas A&M thoughts.
Very few people at this point say I don't really think one way or the other about them.
A lot of folks have a firmly entrenched opinion, positive or negative.
Very few people are indifferent.
Las Vegas, what do they think?
Over under wind total.
Year after not making a bowl game, what do you think?
Six and a half, seven, absolutely not.
Right back up there at eight and a half.
Why?
Because the talent roster is too good.
They can't afford to hang a number lower than that because they know how mildly A&M under
achieved last year.
Now from an odds makers perspective, you acknowledge last year, but you're trying to
set a number for this year.
And so this year, they know that eight and a half is a very fair number for that talent
roster.
And they also know that last year happened because of certain reasons and those reasons
seemingly have been addressed with the hiring of a new offensive coordinator, right?
Year odds making community has no way of knowing whether Jimbo is going to follow through
on his stated reasons for hiring that coordinator.
So they got to put that eight and a half out there.
And that concludes my top five wildcard teams.
I don't think that's an exhaustive list because I, we had to shave several teams out of there.
So it's a, it's a, it's a healthy amount of summertime that we still have coming up,
not to be confused with all season that we can talk about that.
But I do want to zero in on one team here and I want to welcome you to the show, by the
way, if you're watching.
Um, I guess it's been a while.
I haven't explained the format.
We do the show live Sunday night and Thursday night this time of year, eight Eastern seven
central, but we also format the show to where if you want to listen to it on podcast, that's
fine.
You don't lose anything.
It's pretty graphics, a little spinny logo in the background, but you really don't lose
anything.
So you can just take it, listen to it the next day at work.
Instead of doing actual work, we encourage that sort of behavior and also you can find
the full link shows on the YouTube channel anytime you want.
And if you want to go through individual videos, clip from the main show, those are also there,
plus a few shorts and random videos from the late kick extra podcast, which otherwise
is just an audio only feature.
So a lot going on.
Okay.
This, this whole concept of vacation, that stuff, normal people do.
We don't, we don't really do that.
Ohio State is changing.
There are some changes being made in Columbus, Ohio, a little refresher here on what the
streets are saying.
It's crazy how much this is upended over the last 24 months because 24 short months ago,
give or take on the math, the going theory was Michigan would never beat Ohio State again.
There was just a stranglehold.
Urban had seamlessly transitioned to Ryan Day and Ryan Day was humming along recruiting,
and maybe ticking a bit up from the days of urban Meyer.
And certainly there was going to be the same intensity and the same focus and the same
razor sharp execution and the quarterbacks were still going to come through there and
and it was the way it was for a little while until it wasn't.
Memo's famous saying things are always the way they are until they are not sage wisdom
from me.
And so I went from listening to certain people tell me that that team in Columbus was going
to dominate forever to the same people telling me 24 months later, Ohio State can't beat Michigan,
can't, like cannot beat them, get their best effort and they still can't beat Michigan.
That is a little foolish to me.
Maybe they will not, I guess, is something I can pick up if that's what you're putting
down, but cannot.
This is a really good team.
Plus I presented the science to you the other day that for the past six years running, the
team with the most first round draft picks the following April was the team that just
won the national championship and the mock draft community is telling us resoundingly Ohio
State projects to have the most first rounders next spring, which means scientifically, not
according to me scientifically means Ohio State should win the title.
It's a little tongue in cheek there, but not really because I think it's going to be a
really good team.
But anyway, the changes I'm talking about are changes that once upon a time people did
not think would happen.
But what do we, what do we always focus on here?
I've already said it once in this show tonight.
I always take the sledgehammer this time of year and I pound on the idea that there is
a difference guys between saying something cannot happen and something just has not happened.
There is a lot in this sport that hasn't happened that is dressed up as cannot happen.
And let me give you an example.
Stop me if you've heard this or stop yourself if you said this.
Ryan Day can't win a national championship.
Well Ryan Day has not won a national championship.
That's true.
Cannot can't win a national title.
I call BS on it.
I listened to it about Kirby for a long time.
Like what five, four, five years or something like that.
And then all of a sudden he ran off two in a row and obviously no one says that anymore.
And you can't find anyone to admit that they used to traffic in that nonsense.
I believe one day we'll live in a world where Ryan Day will have won a title, maybe more.
And no one will admit that they're saying what a lot of people are saying right now.
And that is he can't win.
No, he hasn't.
He hasn't won one.
He's gotten close.
Hasn't won one.
That's different than can't win one.
But what are these changes?
Well, these changes are because of failure and not failure in the classical sense because
he's got about as good a winning percentage as any coaches had over the last several
years, but it's not good enough.
And I'm not here to suggest otherwise.
And it's not good enough at Ohio State because in consecutive years they have lost to Michigan.
In consecutive years, they have failed to win the Big Ten Championship or even play for
one and they wasted the CJ Stroud era in doing so.
That is not good enough for them.
The standard is that high.
Failure is a really great motivator though.
Failure is a really great incentivizer.
And so Chris Hummer has got a really good feature over on 24 seven sports.com right now
about some of the changes that are happening there, namely in the transfer portal.
But I told you at the end of last season when they lost the Michigan game, then they got
a reprieve and they played Georgia and out of Kirby smart's own mouth.
He said they probably should have beaten us.
Well, they didn't.
And you go into a very, very long dark winter and you're forced to look in the mirror and
question everything.
You just tear it all down.
Now, you may build it back and it looks exactly the same, but you leave no stone unturned
when you do QCRs, when you do quality control reports, when you do self scouting, when you
internally review yourself, you got to go top to bottom and nothing is off the table.
You got to make sure that razor sharp efficiency in every corner of your program is prioritized.
Well, I'll tell you one area where we've seen Ohio State evolve a little bit.
And this was in Chris Hummer's feature.
So I got two quotes for you.
One of them is from a year ago.
This was Ryan Day talking about the transfer portal.
Now listen to how different it's going to sound compared to what I'm about to read you.
This is Ryan Day about a year ago.
Note, we really haven't spent a lot of time focusing on the portal because I think if
you want to sustain the program for a long period of time, I think recruits and their
families when you recruit them and talk to them about the plan for them to develop in
your program, they want to see that happen.
And they really don't want to see a transfer come up and jump somebody in line.
Reasonable?
Well, then last year happened and then we fast forward and this is Ryan Day from earlier
this month, according to our friends at Buckknots.
Quote, as you guys know, we've been very careful to add pieces here, but we know it's a necessary
thing.
And so we have to sit down at the end of spring and identify what positions do we feel good
about?
Where do we have depth?
Where do we feel strong?
Because we know we're going to lose guys along the way and guys are going to have to
step up.
They have added triple the amount of three and four star caliber talent this portal cycle
as they did last cycle.
And a couple of them are going to be plug and play type guys, Jaha Carter, the kid from
Syracuse, I believe four star defensive back.
They got a kid from Ole Miss same way, Taiwan Malone, since you and I last spoke, they added
that big defensive lineman out of Ole Miss and even if he doesn't start, they're loaded
there that just adds more depth.
They've added some big time pieces and last year, Eli Ricks, it's a player that ended
up going to Alabama out of LSU.
Ohio State, I don't know if they were in a position to where if they snapped their fingers,
they get Eli Ricks.
But what I do know and what Hummer talked about is they didn't actively pursue him.
And Bama did.
We can't help but go back to think about the Michigan game or the BAM or the Georgia game.
What difference does one player, one talented player make back there?
There's no way to know.
So it's a futile attempt at rewriting history, but players in those games, it's not units
all the time.
Individual players can change the course of seasons, can change championship courses and
can change careers, especially when you're operating on the tightrope that head coach
at Ohio State operates on.
So Ohio State's got seven portal commits right now.
Josh Simmons, by the way, is the offensive tackle they got out of San Diego State.
He's going to start.
I mean, they got him in there to start immediately.
That was one of their most glaring needs, offensive tackle.
So here's my final point right now on Ohio State.
That would be fooled by thinking the book is written on a guy.
So it used to be with head coaches that you coached a couple of different places out of
the spotlight before you got a shot at a big time program.
So you had gone through the trial and error phase.
You had learned lessons.
You had tried out things and found out what does work, what doesn't work.
And by the time you get an Ohio State caliber job, you've got like 15 years under your belt.
And that's not to mention all the time you spent cutting your teeth as a grad assistant
or a position coach or a coordinator.
It's not the way it is anymore all the time.
And therefore Ryan Day is at his first head coaching job and it's Ohio State.
Thing about it is you can't change the way progress works.
You can't change the way professional maturation works.
You still got to learn the lessons.
You still got a trial and error.
You still got to find out what works, what doesn't work.
You still got to make mistakes.
No one's immune from it.
It's just that nowadays you do it with millions of eyes on you because people are willing to
make their job your first shot as a head coach.
It would be very foolish to sit here three or four or in this case five years into a
guy's head coaching career and think you know him because the reality is the Ryan Day of
2023 is probably not the one we saw in 2020.
The Ryan Day of 2027 may have evolved another 15% of his core philosophy from the one we're
going to see this year.
Guys aren't robots.
AI hasn't come that far.
They don't just exist in a vacuum.
They see things.
They experience things.
They hire people.
New ideas come through their building.
They observe new ideas.
They get their tail kicked by people and have to look begrudgingly and say, what are they
doing better than us?
At Hertz, it's a bitter pill to swallow, but anyone who's ever succeeded at the highest
level had to go through that and probably will again at some point.
When I hear about what Ryan Day cannot do, I always laugh at it.
Same way I did with Smart back in the day.
When you talk about him in definitive terms, here's who he is as a coach.
As if it can ever change.
Here's a thing about him as if it can ever change.
It's garbage.
Not just with him, but because they've lost two very high profile games at the end of
years in rivalry fashion, just people are saying that a lot more about him.
It's foolish for lack of a stronger term because I know the kiddos are listening.
It's foolish.
So Ohio State this year has the second best odds to win the Big Ten.
It's been a while since I said that to you.
Michigan's got the best odds to win the Big Ten.
Michigan's killed it in the portal too, and they didn't need to.
When I say killed it, I don't mean like Colorado.
I mean, they have bought themselves the ability to cherry pick and sprinkle all over the roster.
Will Ohio State sort of done the same thing?
And those Big Ten championship odds for the first time in a while, you got Michigan,
you got Ohio State.
Now I think I would surprise you in telling you Wisconsin is the third favorite that has
everything to do with the division and the imbalance up there, and then Penn State's their
fourth at plus 700.
So fun times ahead in the Big Ten conference.
Interesting that the choice liquid that is in the chalice tonight is the same flavor it
always is.
It just tastes a little bit sweeter.
I don't mean that as euphemism.
I just really literally mean it tastes a little bit sweeter.
I don't know what we did.
Um, oh man, I didn't put my usual piece of paper here.
Jesse, I'm glad I remembered.
Academy Sports and Outdoors was in the, was in the mainstream conversation on the Twitters
the other day.
So someone back in 2020 did a comparative analysis.
They did one of those either or it might as well have been a poll question.
And they said, you can only choose one place to shop for the rest of your life.
Is it Academy Sports and Outdoors or is it one of their competitors that we shant mention
by name?
And I found it the other day.
I don't care if it's three years old.
That's a war that I'm happy to fight digitally, of course.
And um, a lot of you, and I'm proud of this, a lot of you came to Academy's defense as
if they need it.
I mean, it's a slam dunk clear option.
Give me Academy or give me death.
That's what I said.
And a lot of you echoed the sentiment in much stronger terms because a lot of you who have
been around this show for a while, you number one, you appreciate that it's free.
Cause let's be real, who in the world is going to pay to listen to me.
So you appreciate that it's free.
I appreciate that we can make it free, but listen, Jesse and Colin and I don't walk in
here as the great grandchildren of like Cornelius Vanderbilt or anything like that.
We don't have pockets deep enough to provide this show to you for free.
But when we partner with a friend like Academy Sports and Outdoors, all of a sudden a lot
of these bills get paid the, uh, the old fashioned way and the old fashioned way means go find
the best outdoor sporting goods company in America and partner with them and voila,
there it is.
So you guys have come to appreciate that and therefore because they roll with us, you
roll with them.
And I thank you for that.
And it was never more apparent than the other day.
They took notice.
They hit me up.
They took notice and I'm trying to tell you, thank you through them.
So if you've got needs, I don't care if you need a baseball bat or just some big league
chugum or you need a new tent or you need a bike or you need, I don't have a fishing
gear.
Academy Sports and Outdoors has got you.
And if you don't feel like going in person or you can't go in person, academy.com.
I got emailed to me today, a list of the new locations they're opening up and it is lengthy
immunity.
We move on transfer portal.
People just churning away.
I know the window closed last week, but yes, we still have big names in here and we got
some names that have landed since the last time we talked.
So with a stack of the paper there, let me get you some of the latest transfer portal
whispers and Intel tray Amos, you know that name?
Probably not.
Maybe some of you Sunbelt fans do multi year starter for Louisiana.
I played in 34 games for them.
A couple of years under his belt, he transferred to Alabama.
So this was a coveted player and I thought Bama was the early leader.
Then I heard some other teams had emerged and Alabama ended up pulling him.
So Alabama at corners interesting because I think Kool-Aid McKistry is one of the best
in the country.
I think Terry and Arnold can be one of the best in the country.
They don't have a lot of depth behind those front two.
Nick Saban's been vocal about that.
They got some names from prior recruiting cycles, but they don't have proven depth.
Trey Amos provides them some proven depth, 61, 197, LSU was in this thing, A&M, Penn State,
Miami.
I mean, he's a multi year starter at corner.
So pretty much everyone, even if they didn't need corner help, they at least, at least
call them up and say, Hey, Trey, just keep us in mind.
And Nick Saban ended up landing him.
So this is a big get for them and that's even without the risk of injury this year, they
needed it.
But especially if one of those guys went down for Alabama, that would end up being a glaring
hole on another wise championship contending team.
I've also got to talk to you about some, some Colorado odds and ends, but this time it involves
a player leaving Colorado and that is Jordan Tyson.
We talked about him for a while.
That is a former four star receiver there.
He led Colorado in receptions last year or receiving yards.
He had him in touchdowns last year.
It's pretty good player.
He had five touchdowns as a freshman.
He's going to play for Kenny Dillingham.
He's going to play for Arizona State.
So we're staying out West.
He's six, two, one 80, got three years remaining.
And there were several big time players in this one too.
Oklahoma was there, A&M was there, Auburn, TCU.
And so this is a big get for Dillingham.
Remember now they also made some noise and landing Jaden Rashada.
There's no guarantee he's starting for them at quarterback this year, but for those of
you who are getting your names confused, Rashada was that quarterback that had the big dust
up in NIL fashion with Florida.
Well, Rashada landed at Arizona State.
And so now you got to get players for him to throw to if he is their starter this year.
Whoever's starting out there, Jordan Tyson will probably be an integral part of their
passing game.
Now as for a guy who has not landed yet, and this is a big name.
I don't care how late it is in the cycle.
You got to stay locked in on names like this.
Keon Coleman still don't know.
Keon Coleman is a top 25 player, regardless of position in the portal.
He was Michigan State's leading receiver last year.
Big body guys, six four proven commodity here.
Got about 60 offers so far can go pretty much wherever he wants to.
He visited FSU last weekend.
By all accounts, things went very well.
He just wrapped up a visit to Ole Miss.
I have not gotten any feedback on how that visit went.
It sounds like he's about to visit Texas A&M as well.
So let's hold off on that.
And I think that what he's trying to do is I don't think he is visiting until he finds
a place he wants to go.
I think he has a few places he wants to visit.
And then I think he's got to date in his mind, maybe like next week or something like that,
where he'll end up committing.
Keon Coleman, six four two fifteen is going to be a difference maker in whichever receiver
room he lands in.
And also I haven't talked to you a lot about running backs.
Logan Diggs and Alton McCaskill, those are the top two running backs available in the
portal right now.
Diggs is out of Notre Dame.
Two team race.
At least that's what it looks like right now.
LSU in South Carolina and LSU ever in need of additional help at tailback looks to be
the crystal ball favorite at the moment.
And as for McCaskill, he's out of Houston because pretty much, well, I'm not going to
hate on Houston.
I'm just saying they've lost a lot of players to the portal.
He's one of them.
This is a Florida Colorado battle.
As it seems right now, he is crystal ball to Colorado.
So Colorado is not done adding guys and Alton McCaskill could just be the latest.
Those are a couple of tailbacks there.
So that's the latest word.
You may have thought to yourself, oh, he'll he'll list a couple of names and it'll be
over.
No, Tress for portal is still really that lit up.
And even if you're not paying attention to any of those other names, Keon Coleman, stay
checked in on him.
Like a Florida state lance him talked about how many other big bodies they have in their
receiver room.
If A&M lands him, think about how versatile that makes their receiver room.
If Ole Miss lands him, it would be a really big deal because Ole Miss had Shane hooks and
then lost him and they landed Chris Marshall, the former five star from A&M, but he's already
been dismissed from school.
So there are two guys who big names now that it looked like we'd have it Ole Miss that
all of a sudden we don't have.
So they need receiver help and Keon Coleman would be a really big get and they've been
very aggressive in the NIL front knowing all that to try and get him.
So let's just stay tuned.
Portal never sleeps.
Wall Street never sleeps.
And as it turns out, neither does the portal.
And because of the sips of the caffeine induced liquid I'm taking out of the chalice, I may
never sleep either.
But that's okay because we have a lot of show to go.
So the other night, Colin, this is not your end point.
The other night we talked about the ACC at some length and a certain portion of our viewership
took that to be my ACC season preview.
And let me just go on a record as saying I will never preview the season in May ever.
And so you can rest assured if I'm talking about something in May, that's all I'm doing.
I'm talking about it and it's May.
And I say that because we mentioned several teams like the whole segment was just me hopping
around the ACC post spring.
Here's what we're hearing.
Here are the updated odds.
Here's what we're thinking.
And of course I didn't mention every team in the conference.
And so fan bases came at me predictably and said, how could you do an ACC preview and not
talk about NC State?
Well, the way I could do that is it wasn't an ACC preview and I didn't have anything to
say about NC State.
So that's how that happened.
I say that because tonight, and here's your end point, it's time to talk about the big
12 post spring.
We've got to hop all around this conference and we're going to talk about where things
stand, a snapshot, if you will, of the big 12.
Very entertaining conference last year.
Think it'll be an equally entertaining conference this year.
Everybody wants to start with OU in Texas, but I'm not going to do that.
We got to practice because this time next year, they'll be gone.
If it's not Oklahoma winning this conference, if it's not Texas, they're the two odds on
favorites.
If it's not one of them, what will have happened?
Well, you're looking at the odds.
If you're watching on YouTube, if you're not, Kansas State has the third best odds to
win the conference.
Texas Tech all the way up there at four.
TCU is five and Baylor is six.
Iowa State for the record has plus 2,500 odds to win the conference.
That's up from plus 6,000.
And I promise that's not just my money.
Although there's a sizable chunk of my wallet riding on Iowa State this year.
And that is purely my heart betting, by the way.
So don't take that as a prediction either.
But outside of that, like how would this happen?
It doesn't even matter.
The odds have hardly ever mattered recently when it comes to the big 12.
Baylor, like Baylor lost four offensive linemen.
They're just going to make a run anyway.
We'll see.
So if it's not OU or Texas, here are some thoughts I have.
Kansas State.
Yeah, it could be them.
They're only returning 52% of their defensive production.
And that matters because as much attention as that quarterback situation got last year,
they were tied for 16th in points per game allowed last year defensively.
They were really good.
I mean, I was up there and I saw them blank Oklahoma State, just body bag, Oklahoma State.
And they ended up winning the big 12, which people kind of forget because they just, all
you think about is TCU National Title Game, which means they must have won the country
conference.
No, they did not.
Chris Kliman just got his contract extension.
So there's that.
Well, what about TCU?
TCU went to the title game last year.
Do they fall back to earth this year?
Well, they could fall back to earth and go like 10 and two, but they have one stat that's
going to stand out a lot and you're not hearing it right now because it's May, but you will
start to hear it more and more.
And that is the number 118.
They're 118th in returning production this year.
So when you've got a team that went to the national title game and you don't return much
at all of it, it's a new team.
Doesn't mean they still can't be good, but they got to be good for different reasons.
They are also playing six aside from themselves.
The other six of the best odds teams in the big 12, they play all of them.
So it is not a soft schedule by big 12 standards.
Texas Tech way out there in Lubbock, Texas, Texas Tech.
Just you hear the drum beat and it's going to get louder and louder.
And I hate that I already know how this is going to go.
People are going to come to the table in August and they're just going to need a sleeper and
they're going to pick Texas Tech and it doesn't matter that you and I were several months
ahead of everyone else all the sudden there they will be sitting at the table with us.
And we had the seats first, but whatever.
If Tyler Shuck is their quarterback one, I need to remind you that he is eight and
oh, well, he's five and oh, or he's eight and oh in his starts in 2022 when he was healthy
last year.
He was five and oh in those starts.
They brought in the big 12s number four recruiting class.
They have a lot going for him out there.
They got the right head coaches, what they did, enjoy McGuire.
So everybody's in love with him.
Good vibes all around out there.
And unlike the previous team I talked about TCU, unlike them, Texas Tech, they got a good
schedule draw.
They play five of the seven bottom teams in terms of odds in the big 12.
So let's just keep an eye on them.
Also their defense allowed 34 plus in four of their five losses last year.
That's where they have to improve and they get that new offensive coordinator in there
from Western Kentucky.
They're going to run a ton of plays, man.
He was Zach Kitley is the kids or the guys name.
He's 14th in plays per game run last year.
So I love them.
They open at Wyoming, but they get Oregon in there in week two and that's going to be
a really underrated game because it's that it's that date I've been telling you about
where like everyone in Texas minus Houston, they go play rice.
Salute Houston.
Everyone else plays a big out of conference game in the state that day.
So Kansas remember Kansas made a little noise last year and then fell off.
They return 85% of their production this year.
That's second in FBS.
They are one of three teams though that face OUN Texas.
So a little bit of good, a little bit of bad there.
Then you just have the who in the world knows crowd and by that, I mean West Virginia.
Just, I wrote three question marks on this piece of paper.
I don't know.
We didn't know if Neil Brown was going to still be the head coach there.
They've got a tough non conference.
They play Penn State.
They play pit.
They go to TCU to Oklahoma to Baylor and I don't know.
I just don't know.
But if it is Texas in Oklahoma, so that that's the whole crowd of if it's not them.
If it is Texas and OU, the last time that one of those two was not the preseason favorite
to win the big 12.
How far back do you think you have to go?
You got to go all the way back to 2015.
And yet Texas has not won this conference since 2009, which even for the people who know they've
struggled has to be stunning.
That is a punch to the chest.
Do you know 2009?
That was the year they played Bama in the title game.
That's the last time that Texas won the big 12 championship.
That's a long time ago.
And that's a conference that's been more than winnable in several years.
Texas is going to be in good position.
If I had to pick the conference right now, I'd pick Texas to win it, which means absolutely
nothing, but I just have to warn you.
Last year, remember the model, which I hold in my hand right now, the model was drunk
on Texas and it may very well be this year.
But unlike last year, maybe I'll ride with the model when it comes to Texas this year.
They're over under win totals, nine and a half heavily juice towards the over.
It does not surprise me that they're taking a lot of over-bet right now on Texas.
OU in the meantime needs the major bounce back.
Texas has been trending in the right direction.
Granted, they're two years in under start.
They're only one year in under Brenton Venables, but Vegas hung a nine and a half on Oklahoma,
too.
So they're looking at both of them saying same win total and slightly better odds for
Texas to win the conference.
Texas is plus 110.
OU is plus 325.
But Oklahoma didn't have quarterback depth last year.
They've got it now.
Dylan Gabriel's there, but they got Jackson Arnold in there as a true freshman.
Won the Elite 11 when we were out there last year.
They play six of the bottom seven teams in the Big 12 in terms of preseason odds.
And of course they get Texas in Dallas and Hooms to knows.
Maybe I'll be at that game again this year.
Big turnaround needed some kind of turnaround expected.
You also need to remember they have those four newcomers this year.
Takes a lot of getting used to.
I know you got Brigham Young, you got Central Florida, you got Houston, you got Cincinnati,
but where do they fit in?
It's one thing to know what conference they're in, but this is always interesting.
Like from the odds makers perspective, how good are they compared to the rest of the
conference?
Where are they slotting them in?
Well, I'll tell you.
Right now, Central Florida has the seventh best odds to win the conference.
They're tied for the seventh best odds to win the conference.
They are tied with Iowa State.
So this is not scientific, but just to give you an idea of what Vegas thinks, they view
Central Florida about equal with Iowa State.
They view Brigham Young at 11.
They put Sensi at what tied for 12 and Houston, the worst team in terms of odds in the conference
to start the year.
So most of these newcomers come in at the bottom of the conference, Central Florida,
viewed to be around the middle part of the conference.
Central Florida, back to back nine win seasons.
They replace four offensive linemen.
Like that's the big question for them.
Brigham Young, one of three teams in the conference to play OU in Texas.
Tennessee is one 24 in returning production this year.
So they got gutted pretty thoroughly.
Houston got ravaged by the portal.
So it does not surprise me that those are the numbers Vegas put next to them.
But nonetheless, that is where the new kids on the block there in the big 12 are slotted.
And again, you've got three teams with over-under-win totals of eight or more.
And that's Texas, OU, and Kansas State.
Come on in the big 12.
Just a snapshot people.
It's not an actual prediction.
It's not an overarching preview, just a little snapshot.
I had a little fun today looking at the schedules.
You know, this is the time of year, as I told you the other day, I think where I start to
try and figure out the yet to be named tour and the destinations on that tour for this
coming fall.
There are some weeks where I'm so sure of where we're going to be.
Which means it'll just go up in smoke.
It'll just catastrophe will strike my plans that I write in pencil for a reason after week
one.
But I was looking over and I said, Jesse, you know, we can start doing it.
It's not too early.
We can start talking about some of the biggest games in these conferences.
And since this show has been void of a lot of SEC talks so far, let's just open the book.
Let's look at the SEC schedule this year.
Let's talk about some of the biggest conference games, not out of conference games.
Tennessee at Bama is where it starts for me.
That's in week eight, like last year, Director Colin was there.
So everyone was there in Neelon Stadium when Tennessee took down Bama for the first time
in a decade and a half.
Used to be a huge rivalry and it can be again.
But hey, if you were college age, you didn't know because you've just known Bama domination.
And then all of a sudden you saw what that rivalry actually meant because you saw the
other team win it.
And I had been talking to you guys all week about if Tennessee wins it, you're going to
see something like you've never seen before.
Well, Tennessee won it.
And you saw a scene like you've never seen before, the scene in Neelon Stadium after they
beat Alabama, topped any scene I've ever seen in a national championship game, which makes
no sense to anyone in any other sport.
But that's college football.
Saturday's in the fall.
That's college football.
The third Saturday in October in particular is the name of this rivalry.
And they played in Tuscaloosa this year.
I've been to many a Tennessee Alabama game, both venues, but it's been a long time since
I've been to a Tennessee Bama game where the Bama crowd actually feared losing.
They'll feel that this year, which adds the juice to the rivalry that quite frankly it
had lacked over the past few years.
That alone is reason enough for me to put this game as one of, if not the biggest circles
on the SEC schedule of games I'm looking forward to.
I'm going to go with a really random game next and it's the week before Bama plays Tennessee.
Week seven, little off the radar here, Florida at South Carolina.
I told you it's a little off the radar, but you got to think about what I care about.
Okay.
So you may value different things.
You may, you may just load it up with a bunch of Bama and Georgia, which is fine.
I care about this game because I know the boat that both of those staffs are in.
So Shane Beamer is over achieved two years in a row.
Billy Napier badly needs something to sell to his fan base this year.
South Carolina will have already played a pretty meaty schedule.
They will have already played North Carolina.
They will have already gone to Georgia and to Tennessee, but they'll be coming off a
bye week here, Florida will not.
And so whatever the best version, the most battle tested, best version of South Carolina
is will probably get it here and they get to host Florida in this game too.
Florida on the other hand, for all the consternation around this program and for all the lack
of hope around this team this year, they don't have a murderer's row of a schedule to start
out guys.
They go to Utah to start week one, but then they also have McNeese.
They got Charlotte.
They got Kentucky and Vandy early in the year.
They do have Tennessee there, but there's a chance, especially if they pull one upset.
There's a chance that Florida either is just, they could just be better than we thought.
They could also be a little inflated.
So there are a couple of different scenarios.
Now third is they could just have imploded already.
But there's this first and second scenario that makes this game all of a sudden really,
really attractive.
And look, either way, man, if Billy Napier wins that game or he loses that game, if he
wins the game, he goes into the by happy and then they've got the Georgia game and all
of a sudden we get a little hype behind that one.
But if they lose it, yeah, you got the South Carolina storyline, but also it would be very
sour in Gainesville very quickly.
Georgia at Tennessee.
I cannot get too far down this list before I talk about this game.
It's in week 12.
I got a stat for you.
I put it on Twitter earlier today.
Just even within conferences to show you some of the scheduling, not scheduling imbalance,
the division imbalance.
This is no fault of Georgia, by the way.
Georgia plays one team all year with a preseason win total of over seven and that's Tennessee.
Bama, conversely, plays four of the top 13 teams in the country in terms of title odds.
They play in the same conference.
It's just crazy what side of the Chattahoochee River and which division you play in and how
different that makes things for you.
So this game is Georgia's season.
They get to build up to it all year.
It should be, should be, the only time that they're threatened by an opponent that could
beat them if they play their B plus game.
Any other team that beats Georgia will need Georgia's help.
Tennessee, there is a path, especially in New Zealand Stadium where Georgia brings it and
Tennessee still finds a way to win the game.
Think the Bama game last year with Tennessee.
Can you replicate that?
Is this that game this year where Tennessee bottles up what we saw against Bama last year?
Home field plus Georgia starting a new quarterback, presumably Carson Beck could be fun.
We were at this game last year and I know the final was 27 to 13.
Not nearly that close.
Just the style that Georgia played, not nearly that close.
What about LSU at Alabama?
Have you heard that LSU beat Bama last year?
You guys heard that?
I heard they did and then I confirmed it.
Yeah, they did.
These, these both, they're always rested.
So they always have a bye week before this game.
Brian Kelly versus Nick Saban is, is rapidly increasing in terms of the profile on that
match up as it should and also outside of just the SEC.
These are two of the top five teams in the country in terms of preseason title odds.
So what that game was for a long time and then it got lost for a couple of minutes and
then all of a sudden last year, you see the upset happen.
Maybe we get the classical LSU Bama feel back to that rivalry again this year again to win
the SEC this year.
The odds go Georgia Bama LSU.
Texas A&M still has better odds than Tennessee by the way.
I know that stuns a lot of you.
I just had a really violent hiccup.
So that's, that's, that's another one.
I got another random one to throw at you.
So I thought Florida, South Carolina was pretty random.
Also in week eight, that's when Ole Miss goes to Auburn.
And for those of you who just showed up, lest we forget, Ole Miss's head coach Lane Kiffin
that took the Auburn job.
He probably decided to and then back to way last minute.
Now they've got Hugh Freeze there, Oswald at Inzwell, but that's one reason to watch
this.
The other reason it's a critical division game.
Auburn's offense in week one, who's who's to say what it looks like.
But this is week eight.
So by week eight, we'll know on both sides really, we'll know what those offenses look
like and also these two teams each had top 10 transfer portal classes.
And Auburn has continued to rack up.
I think they're top five at this point.
So this is that time of year where it gets really dangerous because you started to formulate
your opinions and your predictions.
And the reality is there are a lot of players you've never seen play for these teams that
are going to be big time contributors and they will ultimately decide how good these
teams are this fall.
But Ole Miss at Auburn, the whole Kiffin versus Hugh Freeze thing, Hugh Freeze, his former team
in Ole Miss, that'll be really good.
And a couple more, really just one.
I have to always go to this one.
Texas A&M and Arkansas or Texas A&M versus Arkansas.
So when my, when my picture this game in my head, I always picture that neither of them
has played anyone.
I always picture it as the first big game, but that's never true.
I don't know why my mind works that way.
So this year, for example, it's week five when the game happens.
Arkansas will have already played Brigham Young and at LSU.
A&M will have already played at Miami and versus Auburn.
So they could be undefeated and rolling.
Both of them could have a loss, both of them could have two losses, could be some mixed,
a mixed bag of that mismatch of that, I guess what I'm trying to say.
Um, but here's the other thing.
Until further notice, just assume every A&M game is going to be close.
Like this one was last year.
This is the one I think where we had the bounce off the upright and Arkansas loses and then
their season goes into a tailspin.
But as much attention as will be paid on A&M, let's also remember, hey, Arkansas didn't
have things go the way they wanted to either last year.
And we've, we've got to look at the portal editions.
They've made welcome to town of our keys, gums for the second time.
KJ Jefferson did not go anywhere.
He stole the quarterback there.
They've made some solid additions portal wise on their defense.
Always an entertaining game.
They call it the Southwest classic for a reason.
I'm not crazy about the venue, but it is what it is.
So those are some of the spotlight games I have my eye on in the SEC this year.
Okay, a quick favor.
Show's not over, but just a quick favor.
There's this button.
It looks like this.
It's a thumbs up.
I need you to click it.
And that's it.
It's kind of it.
Also, I was looking through our numbers today.
58% of our viewers are unsubscribed.
I don't know what your reason is.
I would just humbly ask that you consider subscribing to the channel mainly because it's
free.
There are no strings attached and it greatly helps us.
It would be a big favor to us if you would just do that.
So thank you.
Okay, it's mood tracker season.
We all know that.
And it's time for the Florida State mood tracker tonight.
Some people are saying that Florida State is the favorite to win the ACC this year.
And let me take it a step further because I've got my ear to the ground so you don't
have to.
Some other people are saying they may be a sneaky playoff contender.
And then there's this other group that looks at that group and says, why are you calling
them sneaky?
No, they're just a flat out playoff contender.
And meanwhile, I'm over here saying, yeah, get them because it's time to do the mood tracker.
The mood tracker is when we take the temperature of the fan base.
And I was over on Knowles 24 seven today on the unconquered board, which is the, like
to me, this is my opinion, that is the value proposition of having a subscription to 24
seven sports is number one, you get access to every single team site.
And number two, like if you're an FSU fan, having access to that message board is worth
its weight and gold.
You got great riders over there.
But on on any one of these boards.
There are like half a dozen to a dozen people who are close to the program who can post anonymously.
And they give you all sorts of little tidbits and morsels and quite frankly, some of the
stuff that the team site guys can't report because they can't have certain people be
mad at them.
Hey, posters on the board can post whatever they want to within reason.
That's my opinion on where the value is for like nine or 10 bucks a month.
I mean, that's well worth it because you're always ahead of the game.
You find out that your more casual friends are talking about stuff that you've known
about for a week because you got access just to the board, not even to mention all the
other great things that come there anyway.
So I'm over on that board today.
And I said, I need your help.
I'm doing the FSU mood tracker tonight.
It would be greatly appreciated if you would tell me how you're feeling.
And in typical unconkered board fashion, there was a sizable portion of the reaction that
was just a little bit sexual in nature.
So I have sanitized it.
They mean excited.
A lot of them are just excited and understandably so.
But I wanted to be creative with the mood.
So I took all of their ideas or like seven pages deep over there now.
And I appreciate that.
I think the mood around the FSU program right now is what I like to call blow, blow Seminole
Wind, which of course is a lyric taken from the 1992 country classic by John Anderson.
I presented it to producer Jesse today and Jesse said, John Anderson, the sports center
anchor.
And it's just for all the good that Jesse does.
There is no one who delivers more crushingly disappointing statements to me on the regular
then Jesse when it comes to music, when it comes to TV, when it comes to culture, when
it, I don't know.
But anyway, I played the song for him.
So he's at least been cultured somewhat today.
John Anderson is performing at the rhyme in like two weeks.
He's typing in the prompter right now.
Be a professional.
Go watch the Celtics game.
So anyway, blow, blow Seminole Wind is a great lyric from a country song, but it can also
apply to the mood around the Florida State fan base right now.
Because if you would to if you were to think just a couple of years ago or even last year
about what a lot of people were saying about Mike Norville, they disappeared.
So they're all ghosts now.
But what were they saying because it didn't take off like a rocket immediately?
What were they saying?
Oh, another swing and a miss.
Another another team took a chance on a G5 coach swinging a mess.
No, you're wrong.
You were always wrong.
It was just going to take a little while.
Why did it take a little while?
Because they didn't take shortcuts.
They built it the right way.
And to his credit to Mike Norville's credit, he never lied to anyone.
He never led them to believe otherwise.
He didn't walk in there and he could have on the speaking circuit talking to boosters
saying, we're going to get this thing turned around immediately.
We're going to give you a product you can be proud of in 2021.
He told him he was really upfront.
Here's the rebuild.
Here's what we got to do.
Here's what I inherited.
Here's what you do and don't know.
And here's how long it's going to take.
They backed away.
They gave him time and more so and more so last you started to feel that wind blow a
little bit more and then you cap it in in fantastic fashion.
And now lo and behold, you're a favorite or a co-fravant when the ACC, you're in the
playoff conversation and that winds blowing.
Here's the thing about the wind that's blowing down there.
It's not just a quick breeze.
It's a little bit more than that because they built it the right way.
And because of that, you got Florida State fans who for the first time in a while are
feeling the kind of energy and enthusiasm that you feel when you know you've got a sustainable
contender on your hands.
Some of us in our youth knew Florida State to be that.
In fact, the national championship picture for a long time felt incomplete without Florida
State's name in there.
If you're in your late twenties, certainly 30s or 40s or 50s, you know what I'm talking
about.
But if you're in your early twenties or your late teens, you don't know that.
You know, they had a year back in 2013 where they won a title.
But by and large, you know, other than that, it started to trend downward and that was
more like a blip than anything in your mind when it comes to them as a national title
contender.
Don't let people fool you, whether you're a Florida State fan or not, they have lied
to you for a while.
They've lied to you and they've told you that the playoff has built this model where
a few teams benefit and they pull away from the rest of the sport and try as you might.
You can't do anything about it.
It's a lie.
It's always been a lie like LSU and 2019.
Did it hold them back?
No, why did it hold them back?
Because they had players who were good enough to win.
The end.
Michigan has it held them back?
No, because they develop, they put their guys in position to succeed and they've been good
enough to win.
Florida State, the sport hadn't held them back.
They've held themselves back.
And now they are putting together pieces to get back on track.
Wins blow a little bit harder and all of a sudden Florida State's right smack dab back
in the middle of national championship conversations and they may validate that this year.
And yet again, you'll see another brand resurrected.
They're back at the party and yet again, you'll look around and say, well, these people lied
to me.
They told me that if you weren't already at the table in the playoff era, you couldn't
make your way over there.
Yes, you can.
Yet you just got to take care of your business.
Yes, you can.
It's always been an excuse to suggest otherwise Tennessee has been terrible for a long time.
They've been bad for a long time.
All of a sudden, they're not anymore.
Did the playoff era hold them back or did Tennessee hold them back?
Same thing with Florida State.
So this year is a pivotal year.
Week one's a pivotal week one, not a must win.
Saw somebody talking about the Jets today in the New York market, week one of an NFL
season, week one's a must win.
Like the Jets can lose 42 to three and week one would be fine.
But even in college football, it's not a must win in week one, but for all the expectation,
sure would be nice to knock off LSU again, wouldn't it?
Because then we just look at the ACC schedule and the next thing on your mind, if you're
an FSU fan or just a national fan is they're playing at Clemson in week four, aren't they?
And let me just paint you a picture, okay?
As you're looking at the schedule on the screen right now, or if you're not, if you're
listening on podcast, the LSU game and the Clemson game, they're both in September.
After that, there is not another game on that schedule that you'll look at and view Florida
State as anything other than a favorite.
I don't know how the season will actually pan out, but when I start running off Vatek,
Qs, Duke, Wake, Pitt, Miami, North Alabama, at Florida at the end of the year, if they've
beaten FSU or LSU, if they've beaten Clemson, especially if they've beaten both of them,
you don't expect them to lose again.
So if you're out there and you're wondering where all this hype's coming from and you're
wondering where these playoff whispers are coming from, that's where they're coming from
because that's feasible.
And even if they drop one of those games, they win the rest of them.
They're right there in the conversation.
It's feasible.
Jordan Travis is back this year.
Verse defensively came back this year.
They got another good transfer portal haul.
So there's no division in this conference this year either.
You know, so it's not going to be one of those cases where just because they happen to be
on the wrong side of the fence, if they drop the game to Clemson, they're locked out of
the title game.
No, not anymore.
It's not the way it works.
The ACC had the good sense to do what the big 10 should have done yesterday.
And that is get rid of the division format like the pack that the pack 12 did put the
two best teams in the conference title game.
Is Florida State going to be one of those two best teams preseason?
It sure looks like it.
It's a whole season.
Wouldn't shock me if it looks the same way.
But yeah, they're excited down there.
And unlike some of you out there who have false excitement, they should be excited.
I'm excited because the show's over.
So we get to go play ping pong now.
Thank you guys so much.
We'll be back here Sunday night for a direct column for producer Jesse for Bradley the Associate.
I'm Josh Pate.
Take care.
Have a great rest of your evening and God bless.
Thank you.
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