Conference Champs & CFP Picks + USC & Notre Dame Takeaways | Late Kick Live Ep. 421

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You got the constitutional freedom to do what you want to spring in summer. But you're looking for a college football show and I promise you you just found it. Not saying stick exclusively to us, but you just found it. This is late kick live. It is Sunday night, August 27th. The year of our Lord 2023 jam packed high atop a revitalized downtown Nashville, Tennessee. Not just because Vandy squeaked to 1 and 0 last night. It is conference championship prediction night. It is college football playoff prediction night. It is national championship prediction night. I'm going to have all of it for you. Hand across my heart or chest or pack or whatever we call this before the end of this broadcast. I've got a bunch of coaches under pressure, some of it competitive, some of it job security. We're going to talk about that. Yeah, I watched USC. Yeah, I watched Notre Dame. Yes, I've got some thoughts and to be honest with you, I don't know if we saw the same thing in that USC game especially. So we'll do that. I've got a ton of announcements in tonight's show. Everything you've been asking me about over about the past two or three weeks about the show and about the season is going to get answered tonight. They're watching us in Meridian, Mississippi, Lagrange, Georgia where I'm told Nelly performed very admirably last night. Yes, that Nelly in that Lagrange, Georgia. Phoenix, Arizona is tuned in. Chesapeake, Virginia is tuned in as of this moment if you're watching live. We have 199,660 subscribers on this channel. Remember once upon a time, not once upon a Saturday, once upon a time we were live in LA like we were doing the show in Los Angeles and we hit 100,000 subs live. Producer Jesse and direct Colin and I believe we may just hit 200k live during this show. So if you're watching and you have not already subscribed and for whatever reason you've been holding out and you've been going Janet Jackson, let's wait a while tonight's the night. So a Rod Stewart song, whatever the 70s, 80s or 90s rhythm you want to go with tonight's the night, subscribe to the channel. Finish is what I'm trying to tell you finish strong. We can hit 200k live. I think we can. But boy, oh boy, what a loaded show. So let me tell you what we're going to do tonight. I'm going to predict every conference championship game. I'm going to give you the winners. We're going to end up culminating the show with national championship picks, playoff picks, but we're going to have all sorts of things woven into the show. Director Colin has a million buttons. He's going to have to press producer Jesse made like a million graphics. So if you are back to college footballs table, we got plenty of chairs for you and it's free. Go ahead and pull up. Big 10 championship time. I'm going to predict the picks here. I'm going to give you our conference winner. I think the East is a three team race, by the way. When I look at the big 10 this year, I don't think it's Ohio State Michigan and everyone else. I know why people say that. I don't see it that way. And you know, I don't like to look in the rear view mirror a lot. So when I'm looking at 2023, I really care about what I think is going to happen in 2023. I've got Ohio State Michigan and Penn State in my top eight. I think the AP does as well or at the very least they got them way up there. There's a lot of talk about gaps. And I think there is a gap. I just think it's behind those top three teams in the East. I look at the Ohio State Michigan view right now. And even within those two teams, folks are talking about a gap. There's Michigan and there's a gap. And I appreciate what people are trying to say when they traffic in that sort of thing. There was a gap between the two teams on the field last year when they played and the year before. In terms of program strength, there's not a gap between anyone in Ohio State in the big 10. You've just gotten the better of them two years in a row. Hey, I watched that same Buckeye team get to within a whisker of beating Georgia and going to the national championship where they would have won it last year. There's not a gap. You've just beaten them two years in a row, which is really all it's about. I don't know why we get involved in what I call the gap scheme. So frequently. But Penn State's there. That's the first thing I want to tell you. The second thing I want to tell you is what does the tier two in this conference look like? The entire big 10 West is just up for grabs. And this is the last year that we're going to have this thing. I have, I've just got to post it stuck to my index finger here. What we call a migrady special around the office. Ryan McGrady is our crack stats and info guru. He says every year since 2016, Iowa has held opponents under 20 points per game. And what have they had to show for it? A very limited result because they can't score to save their lives. Maybe that changes this year. And maybe PJ Fleck and Minnesota finally back up what they mean when they say it just takes a little something different to play here. Wisconsin's the preseason favorite in the West. And Wisconsin's got newness everywhere up to including OC and head coach and quarterback. I am totally fascinated with what Maryland can do. Maryland is a prisoner of a division for one more year. Otherwise, they probably rightly be viewed as a contender in the West. Also Michigan State loses Peyton Thorn. They lose Keon Coleman. And yet I'm sitting there across from Mel Tucker a month ago up in Indianapolis. And he looks me in my eye and tells me we've got the most talent we've ever had on this team since I've been here. What is that equate to? It equates to a complete jumbled mess in my estimation in the big 10 West. But we got to pick a winner, right? Yes, we'll do it in just second. What about sleepers in this conference? You know, I love Illinois. Illinois has got Luke Altmire quarterback now. They've got a top 10 preseason defense per the S and P plus. There is no Michigan on their schedule. There is no Ohio state on their schedule. They got three returning wide receivers. They like pretty good on the offensive line. Really good on the defensive line. I think they like the running backs enough. And I think that they got a taste last year. They're kind of like Kansas. They got a taste in that they charged out of the gate. They started what they started seven and one last year. And then they finished eight and five days didn't have enough gas in the tank. We see teams do that every year. It takes 12 weeks worth of gas. And if you got that tank half full, you get out into the desert. And then you're stranded in the desert. Illinois got stranded a little bit last year. Well, that means you got the best of both worlds. You got to experience the highs. But then you get to sell your team and motivate your team based on the lows at the end of the year. So I'd watch out for them. What does the conference championship picture look like in the big 10? Well, I've deliberated on this for like a month and a half. But I'll tell you where I'm going. It's where I thought I was going to go in the spring. I'm taking Ohio State over Iowa of all teams to win the big 10. So I like Ohio State to come out of the East full disclosure. I don't think any of those teams over there in the top three is losing more than one game. So it is Ohio State, but it's Ohio State by a thin margin. But Iowa over there like Iowa, if Cade McNamara is able to play and it looks like he was good to go as of this past weekend. I called in the guy over there's guys over there at our Iowa site seem to believe not nearly as big an issue as the injury situation has been made out to be. So it look if Iowa improves moderately to mildly offensively going to be a really tough team really tough out over there. But Ohio State to me is the combination of an elite roster without an elite quarterback that's known since the spring they have to play complimentary football to win. There's no CJ Stroud to lean on. I think a lot of people view that as a negative. I have viewed it and will continue to view it as a potential positive. The difference is they may not strike you with lightning here lightning there. It may look totally different. And that's fine because they got the players to play that way. Your team may not. Ohio State's got the players to play that way. And here's the sentence that I'm going to finish with that I have not said. I think to any point under Ryan Day's tenure there. Their defense may well be the MVP of this team this season. And if Ohio State wins the big 10. I think it'll be just as much because of Jim Knowles in the second year, not third second year as DC up there. And the way that defense plays, especially up front as anything that offense does. That's complimentary football. You know, once upon a time, that's the way they won games in this sport. And it could be that way again. You give me Ohio State over Iowa. That's how I see the big 10 this year. Their current over under in Vegas is 10 and a half wins. They are plus 165 odds on favorites to win the big 10. Now before we move on here, I want to tell you what I just said. Because when we put out the JP poll the other day and I had Ohio State above Michigan, people said that's crazy. That's crazy. And try to remind you all that is a power rating. So all the JP poll is is neutral field favorability. Who would I favor over who or who's what I favor over who's on a neutral field tomorrow. People said, well, there's no way that Michigan should be behind Ohio State. And guys, I need to remind you of something. Michigan gets Ohio State at home this year and they're still not favored to win the big 10. I know that doesn't mean anything to you because that's been the case the last two years and you thumped them. I know that you don't have to tell me that that's all I'm trying to do with my power ratings though. That's it. And so right now Ohio State is about a one to a one and a half point dog in that game, which implies neutral field that'd be favored. That's it. There's no there's no gap. There's no anything is razor fin. You can barely fit this piece of paper perceptionally between where those two teams stand. But that's the whole point. There is no big gap there. So I'm taking Ohio State over Iowa in the big 10. Consequential year in final year for divisions up in the big 10. I've got two chalai to give away here. I know a lot of you are new watching this particular show. A lot of you are new and listening to this show. So welcome back to college football. We do this show three times a week. We have we have certain things associated with this show. This is a chalice of supremacy. It says paid state chalice of supremacy on it. Pretty fancy, huh? You can't buy one. Don't worry about it. But you can win one and you win one by doing what? Various members of our gorilla marketing army have been doing lately. And that is just promoting the show publicly by any means necessary. So let me give you an example. Sean McMahon, possible relation to vents. He emails me. He says attached in this email is audio of me from August 25th on Cincinnati's ESPN 1530 with Chad Brendel. Bearcat journal of 24 seven sports network. By the way, I gave late kick a shout out on our airwaves doing my part to get the show to 200,000 subs. Go bear cats. Go freight. Sean McMahon. Sean chalice of supremacy is on its way to Cincinnati, Ohio. I appreciate you. Next up. Doug is checking in all the way from out in Hawaii. He says I work at a golf course in Hawaii. We get visitors from all over the world. There are a lot of ravines where people lose their golf balls. Most people only bring one box. There's a problem. There's 18 holes. Well, I've come up with a solution. He writes. I decided I'd write subscribe to late kick with Josh Payne on each ball. I tossed them in areas where I know golfers will look. If I see a golfer looking for a ball, I tell them I have a few, but it requires a subscription to the channel in order to get them for free. I hope this is worthy of a chalice. Great show. Keep up the great work. That looks like a screen saver. By the way, look to the right. If you're listening on a podcast, picture heaven. Basically, the way you would think that looks, not the bucket of golf balls with my name on it, but the other picture that is magnificent. I don't even think he edited that either. That's just that's just the way Hawaii looks. Some of us grew up in Forteson, Georgia and don't even believe that place exists, but it does. So chalice of supremacy on the way to Doug and on the way to Sean. Appreciate you guys. We've been getting submissions like that by the hundreds. I'm just trying to pick as many as I can. I said I'd give one per show out. We've been given two out. I got a brand new shipment of chalice on the way. So yeah, let's keep it going. Welcome aboard if you're watching live. We have we have not even started the show. But buddy, we need about 250 subs to get to 200 K. So let's keep those rolling. I watched USC yesterday. Better question. Did you watch USC yesterday? And if you watched USC, did you do it illegally? Do you don't have to admit it? Just nod your head. Yes or no? I'm not sure what you saw. Sure, you saw USC beat San Jose State 56 to 28. But judging by my Twitter feed and certainly judging by my DMs and maybe even some of the text I got from my non Trojan aligned friends on the I Josh, I don't think you saw what I saw. I get the feeling you saw USC get torched. I get the feeling you saw San Jose State put up over seven yards per carry. Certainly these are mathematic facts. But I looked at this and I remembered what I tried to preach to you guys when we were talking about the pack 12. Remember how to interpret USC schedule. So Lincoln Riley's not stupid. He knows that they are not going to face a single team. They don't overwhelm until week seven. And that includes God bless them San Jose State pretty good quarterback on that team, but still completely overmatched. So I watched it and I saw 22 different guys get in the defensive scoring sheet. I saw people rotating all throughout the game. And I looked at it and said, does this not feel like a scrimmage? Does this not feel like their second fall scrimmage? Does this not look like the spring game a little bit? And our guys over at USC football.com kind of said the same thing in their postgame rap. I think they just had a plan for how they wanted to manage the game. It wasn't going to be statistically friendly. And certainly if they found themselves in an unexpected dog fight, maybe they handled it differently, but that was never going to happen here. So USC ran it up on them. I think what most people took away is we're watching a third in 22 play if you're watching on YouTube. And it looks terrible. It's just it's playground quality defense. That's what it was. It's in other words, very reminiscent of what we saw from USC last year. As Mimal once famously said, USC could not slow down molasses in December. To me, I think they're much better defensively this year. But when I say they are, I'm speaking very much in the future tense, or I didn't, but I should have spoken in the future tense. I don't think what you saw yesterday is nearly the rotational plan they'll have. I don't think it's the depth chart plan they have. I think they'll settle on guys. Certainly they want to develop and be able to rotate more waves in there. They didn't have that last year. They still won't have it this year. They're not going to be very good defensively. I just need them to be kind of good. If Alex Grinch could get this defense to like just below average given what they have offensively, that's good enough to compete in every game. That's good enough to win every game theoretically. But you got to apply the proper filters to this team. Remember, their schedule, Colin, go in your easy bake oven and pull out the first half of their schedule. There it is. Check this out. Have you ever seen a pan of cupcakes like this? San Jose State, next up we got Nevada, then Stanford, then by week by is actually a better team than two or three of these folks that they play early on. They go to Arizona State. They go to Colorado. They got Arizona. Then it starts. Then we start finding stuff out. They go to Notre Dame. They got Utah. They got Washington at Oregon and UCLA to close out the year. I skipped over Cal because I think Cal's garbage this year. So it's very backloading. They will not face a team. They don't completely and totally drown talent wise until that Notre Dame game and that is kind of close to Halloween. Some people will long since have had their Halloween decorations out by that point. I don't necessarily get down with that but some people do and that's their right. Zachariah Branch is a freak. We talked about him about three weeks ago when we were talking about impact players and I remember it because we pointed him out true freshman five star true freshman receiver for USC. We pointed him out and some people came back and said, yeah, that kid's good but USC is pretty loaded at receiver. I know they are. They don't have players like him though. Bet you they don't have players like him. That's what I said and they don't. He doesn't even have his mouthpiece in guys. Imagine how good he'll be when he puts his mouthpiece in. I'm not going to do what some of you recklessly did yesterday and say, oh, he looks like a Reggie Bush. But he looks like very few players who have come through that program. So let me just put it that way. It's always just fascinating with these loaded teams or in USC's case loaded receiver rooms when a truly elite talent comes in from high school. He had four receptions for 58 yards in the touchdown. He returned to kick off yesterday. He did all kinds of things. When an elite talent comes in to a position room, it doesn't matter how loaded the position room is when a truly elite talent comes in, you can't keep them off the field. Zachariah Branch was never going to get kept off the field unless he got in trouble disciplinary wise and to hear the folks around USC tell it he has no clue how good he even is. So he's kind of one of those happy go lucky. Do his work. Then just kind of put football on the back burner sort of guys. He sounds like he's going to be really good out there. It looks like he's going to be really good. Let's just look. Let's take USC and their performance for what it was yesterday. They pulled away from a team. They were never going to be challenged by them. I think they knew it and I think they handled the game accordingly. That's all I have to say on the matter. It was a good weekend in Indianapolis, Indiana this week. And it was especially a good weekend for those in the Carmel, Indiana area. And that's because we opened up a brand new academy sports and outdoors there. Now, you know, as is custom area around here anytime we open a new academy sports and outdoors. We send you guys there. And we send you guys there on a mission. Just prove to me that you went there, prove to me that you made a purchase and you represented our show right there in the presence of our exclusive partner here on late kick. And I'm going to send you a childless of supremacy. Well, Kim did just that. Kim headed over there and Kim purchased a key chain of all things. I don't care. She was in the store and she made a purchase. And so Kim, you among others have child life supremacy coming your way. Now I'm going to give you guys until close of business today. This isn't a Chick-fil-A. We're open on Sundays here. I'm going to give you guys if you went until close of business today to prove to me in screenshot form. I'll take videos as well that you were there for the grand opening. And I will probably have about three or four more child life supremacy to send out to you. Academy sports and outdoors are exclusive partner. They make this show free to you and they do it very, very willingly. So we appreciate them. We got many, many more stores opening, but until then if you can't get to one in person academy.com. You don't just have to go when they're grand opening things. They've got all the stuff that you need for your outdoors, for your grilling, for your bike riding, for your fall, baseball, football, basketball league, etc. Yes, they carry, etc as well. Probably what will be the most contentious portion of this show is at hand now. And there's no easy way to do this. So I'm just going to tell you first off, thank you for watching. If you're watching live, got a big audience watching live. Like the video if you haven't already. It's time to predict the SEC this year. Who's winning this thing? Who are the sleeper teams? Who's our conference champ? What's the conference championship matchup? Well, courtesy of Ryan McGrady, got a little McGrady pop stat for you. The SEC has won the last four national championships, not a surprise. If you remove the Bama Georgia game where they literally played each other, the SEC has outscored the opposition 157 to 56 over the other three games. They've won six of the last nine. Nice. They've won 13 of the last 17. So before you accuse me of SEC bias, please just remember I happen to have the facts on my side when I talk about this conference. I'm not going to overthink the top of the SEC East. That's what I'm not going to do. It is Georgia's party. And until further notice, everyone else is just getting to hang out, not inside, but out on the front lawn. Now Tennessee made some noise last year until they went to Athens. We were at that game. The only thing worse than going to a game that you expect to be good and it turns into a route is getting rained on. Because then you're kind of mad and you're kind of soggy as well. I don't like being soggy. And especially don't like going to a game that turns into a blowout. And despite what they tell you, that absolutely was a blowout. But then Georgia comes into this year. I don't care about last year. I'm trying to predict this year. What style of offense will they afford themselves the ability to play? So they've got Mike Bobo elevated as their OC. I don't worry about that. That's a non-issue for me. He'll be fine. With the running back situation, there are two schools of thought around this program. So they've been banged up. They lost a guy for the season the other day that they thought was rounding into feature back form. And there's a thought amongst people who just kind of follow recruiting, but they don't really get into the weeds of depth chart and roster that, oh, Georgia will just pump out another guy. Well, it's not as easy as that. Now, they've got players there. I think they've even got a couple of walk-ons that they believe could perform admirably. But you only national championships with admirable play. So will they afford themselves the opportunity to play offense the way they want to? And if they can't, you know, if they have to lean a little bit more on the pass, how does that wide receiver room perform? How does Carson Beck perform? I've got sky high expectations for that kid. Like, if I were to pick against Georgia this year, it wouldn't be because I doubt Carson Beck ironically enough. I know anyone else probably would say, I'm picking against Georgia because I got a new quarterback. That wouldn't be why I did it. It would be probably other facets of the team. But outside of Athens, you look at their schedule, hmm, that at Tennessee 1118 kind of catches one's eye all about Joe Milton with the balls. Again, the entire theme in the east is a who can compete with Georgia B. Don't overthink the room. It's about Joe Milton. I can talk about Tennessee's defensive recruiting. I can talk about the three offensive line positions up for grabs. It's all about the quarterback. That's all about that. Now, there are other teams over here. I'm going to get to them in just a second over in the west. I got in a little, I don't know what you call it when you go back and forth with people on the internet, but I got in in a type fight the other day with someone who was trying to degrade the good name of the SEC West. And their exact quote was don't tell me playing A&M at Ole Miss and at Auburn is hard. Well, it is actually it is hard immunity. It's really, really difficult because those are really good teams. The difference is when you play in a division that's pretty loaded. Folks got to lose for every one game that LSU wins. Someone had to lose. Ditto. Pam a win. Someone had to lose. So someone's going to be seven and five here and be one of the 25 best teams in the country, but you won't believe that because you believe one of the big lies in our sport, which is you are what your record says you are question to you, friend. If I put Arkansas or Auburn or Ole Miss in the big 10 West, what would you call them? Answer contenders. That's what you call them. Same team, same coach, same coach. Same colors, everything that be contenders all the sudden. So yeah, it is a tough stretch to play. Look, I could go Arkansas. I could go Mississippi State for that matter. I could go anyone in the West in that argument. Texas A&M. But look, Alabama has not missed the SEC championship game in back to back years since 2010 and 2011. And they went ahead and won the national title in 2011 anyway. So it is very rare when we see Bama out of the title picture back to back years. Well, they are not favored to win the SEC championship this year. They are a plus 155 to make the playoff. They are plus 600 to make the college football playoff championship game. You're going to see a radical, radical shift offensively there. I have continued to get the same kind of intel out of Tuscaloosa, Alabama for the entirety of fall camp. I'm going to share more of it with you in just a second. It is encouraging, but it's also scary because it's a very, very fine line. It's a very, very thin needle that has to be threaded. I think that's the right usage of the word. But if it is threaded, it's going to be pretty violent over there in the SEC West. LSU has a lot of good on their team that they need to transition to great last year. LSU should have gotten all the praise they got and they deserve it. And we gave it to him and everyone else should have as well. So they also got blown out by Tennessee. They also lost to Texas A&M. Again, cause the expectation was so low, I could bake that in. And it's still a really great year. We can't have that sort of thing this year. LSU is at the party now. LSU is not showing up as a stranger and everyone is trying to figure out who is this? Now LSU is there now. And so offensive line and defensive line is what they keep talking about down there. And I think defensively in their front seven, maybe the best in the conference. They've got depth, Mason Smith, in other words, being out for the FSU game. That's not the kind of thing where you look and say, what are we going to do now? Roll other guys in lean on other guys. Oh, by the way, outscore them. Like those are the sorts of things LSU can do. You want to know who the sleeper is in the SEC pretty much everybody. But when we talk sleepers in the SEC, I'm not necessarily talking about a sleeper contender to win the conference. You know, if I circle Kentucky, which I am Kentucky is one of the biggest sleepers in college football to me. I am not circling Kentucky and saying, you better watch out. Boy, if they get into Atlanta and face off against LSU or Alabama. Those folks got their work cut out for them. It's not that it's Kentucky could be better than whatever their preseason over under win total is. Did you know second migratory stat special for the SEC did you know eight of the top 10 strength of schedules in the country are in the SEC. Perbil Connolly of the S&P plus just so you don't think that's me throwing that out there. Six of the hardest six schedules in the country are in the SEC. Now, I know what the comments section will say. Well, that's just because if you blindly believe in the strength of the SEC, then strength of schedule is going to be very incestuous cause they all play each other blah, blah, blah. Well, I believe in it because I think it happens to be true. So Kentucky's a sleeper offensive line. I think's worked out Devon Liri's a phenomenal pick up the most underrated national pickup out of the portal that people are only just now starting to talk about good receiver talent there Liam Cohen back as the offensive coordinator Florida. Is the conundrum for me we're going to see them in person four days from now out in Salt Lake City will fly out there Wednesday for the once upon a Saturday tour kicking off on a Thursday ironically enough. Florida is going to go out there. They're going to play Utah. Graham Merch is going to start a quarterback for him. I talked to Billy Napier at SEC media days and one of the biggest things that I took away from what he said is I evaluated the quarterbacks all the same Merch was my guy. But Paul Christ giving us as a staff the feedback that he gave us about how they misused that kid at Wisconsin. That was valuable for us. That told us maybe there's more there. And if you think about it, think about pinnocks and nicks just on the West Coast producer Jesse made a good point today. He said, imagine two years ago telling people that bone nicks and Michael pinnocks are going to be right there in the thick of the Heisman trophy race two years later. Well, they are they just had to go to other programs to realize their potential. What I didn't just do is say look out for Graham Merch and the Heisman race this year. What I did do is pump the brakes a little bit on just selling someone down the river cause they didn't perform somewhere else, especially when that somewhere else was not a conducive passing environment. And the coaching staff flat out admitting, yeah, we kind of screwed up with that guy Mississippi state. I keep calling all these teams the biggest sleeper, but Mississippi states also one where every starter is going to be an upperclassman. 18 plus of their starters, maybe 19 or 20 of them will be seniors. They get LSU at home. They get Alabama at home. They've got a quarterback that people continue to doubt cause they think he's a system guy and I ask how many quarterbacks aren't system quarterbacks. Although I know what you mean your point is taken. I think that coaching staff understands what they have to. I don't think they're going to put him in a precarious situation this year. The one that will Rogers can't handle. It's like 29 years old too. So he knows how to handle himself. But those are sleepers. Okay, South Carolina. I could mention South Carolina just got a ridiculously tough schedule. I want to know what our conference championship matchup here is. And I don't think it's all that difficult when the dust settles. I'm taking Alabama out of the West. I'm taking Georgia out of the East. And I'm putting them in Atlanta. Hey, Colin, since we, since that happened, I'm just going to state it over again because we'll probably clip it. Yeah, thank you, sir. I'm taking Alabama out of the West. I'm taking Georgia out of the East. I think Alabama is going to win the SEC championship. I think the Alabama team you see early on will not resemble that very interesting year coming up. I actually think Georgia may look halfway wobbly out of the gate. So these two teams, there's a half decent chance you watch them early in the year. You know, they're loaded. They look like they can't get out of their own way. At least one of them is going to look like this. I can assure you. And I think you'll watch them or acasuals will watch them and say, oh, they've fallen off. Not realizing, well, it's middle Tennessee state. You know, it's any of a number of teams. Georgia plays early, kind of like USC yesterday. When they round into form, they will be the cream of the crop in the SEC. The team Alabama becomes will be the best in the SEC. I don't think they'll look like the best team in the SEC to start the year. They've won seven of the eight SEC titles that Sabin has won with a first year starter at quarterback. It's not foreign territory for him. It just looks radically different than it has over the past few years. Here's the difference with them. They've known it's coming. And they've known they hadn't had an elite quarterback on that roster. And they know they still don't. And that hasn't snuck up on them. And that's why everything ideologically in that program shifted the moment that Kansas State game ended last year. You saw coaches hit the door. You saw players hit the door. And you saw an entire inversion in many cases from strength and conditioning to nutrition to overall philosophy. They've known what they're going to have to do this year for quite a while. And they're equipped to do it. I am telling you guys one more time. And then we'll just get to watch it and that's upcoming Saturday. You have not seen an offensive line in Tuscaloosa Alabama play like the one you'll see this year in a long time. And that is the key behind everything this prediction revolves around style is going to make you doubt them early. I think it'll ultimately make you believe in them late. And I think the one the SEC championship. Did you know that it was a big week around here. It was a big week for us because the paid state store open back up. paidstatematerial.com is open. And your boy here fumbled things fantastically the other night because I told you the website on the live show Sunday night. I said as paidstatematerial.com but don't go there because it's not open. Well some of you were smart enough to go there anyway. And it just so happens that we had soft launched during the show unbeknownst to me. I wish I could say that was planned but it wasn't. But hey man we got we got a very limited selection for you right now that once upon a Saturday shirt is so sweet because it is styled after the rumors album by Fleetwood Mac. We we didn't use the same font just in case Warner Brothers is listening but we used similar font but that paid state my state handshake series there. Some of you are asking where's the South Carolina. Where's the Clums and stuff. Where's the Arkansas stuff. It's all coming guys. It's all coming. This is the first wave of many many many waves that we have ahead so I didn't want to crash the site because those of you who are real ones who were around last year remember. We can only keep that show that store open for like 10 minutes at the time and you kept crashing it so. We've eased ourselves in we had a really really good weekend of traffic and so it's open now. And we are going to be adding things so keep checking it out paid state material dot com I'm not going to use the show to promote it plaster it all over the place. You know where to find it if you are so inclined. And I we got so many ideas for that but I'm not going to bore you with those right now just paid state material dot com the stores open enjoy Notre Dame beat Navy yesterday 42 to 3 everybody everybody has an opinion on Notre Dame so I figured I talk about this for just a second. I'm going to ask you slash implore you no matter what your opinion is here be better than the lane changing casual amongst us you've seen the lane changing casual. He slash she I'm fortunate to say they they exist all over the place they were out in full force watching this Notre Dame game yesterday. The lane change casual has had a field day with Notre Dame so here's what it sounded like you probably heard it just like I did. It sounded like this in the pre game give me Navy plus 20 and a half you know what sprinkled a couple of dollars on the money line this is going to be a lot closer than anyone thinks it is fast forward to the end of the game well of course they won 42 to 3 big deal is just Navy. Same person same person said both things you can't do this you can't do this if some of you found yourself slipping a little bit. It's okay it's preseason for all of us don't be a lane changing casual have a mentality and if you are wrong about something say you're wrong about it if you're right about something by all means say you're right about it but don't call something have it fall flat and then just switch and say well of course it happened that way. Well I didn't what the tune you were singing four and a half hours ago sir ma'am so 42 to 3 yeah it was just Navy this was dominance I know Navy attempted like three passes yeah it's Navy this was dominance quote from earlier this month we dug in the archives quote on this show how about this Notre Dame goes as far as those true freshman wide receivers can take them. Well Jaden great house watch the show at least because he had three catches for 68 yards and a couple of scores yesterday I was looking at Tim Prister's final thoughts on this game over on Irish illustrated dot com he made a great point when is the last time you watch the Notre Dame football game. And a tight end wasn't even targeted forget a reception they didn't even target the tight end position and nine different guys caught passes so either that means Notre Dame has ripped the tight end pass out of the playbook unlikely or they didn't really even open the offense up a whole heck of a lot yesterday I would lean towards the ladder rather than the former we got a padlock stat so many things coming back on the show yes the padlock status back. Sam Hartman led Notre Dame to touchdown drives on the first five possessions that is the first time that has happened for Notre Dame since 2011. Translation we back baby we back so much could have looked ugly in this game and it didn't so you know on this show it doesn't matter if you're favored by 10 or 50 if you do what you're supposed to do in a world where so many people shirk their responsibilities on a weekend week out basis we will give you credit I'm not going to give you flowers because that statement's already very played out but I will give you credit and Notre Dame did above and beyond what they were supposed to do they open the season 17th in the JP poll. The AP poll had him higher maybe we had Notre Dame underrated I'm not jumping onto the playoff bandwagon I'm not doing any of that I'm just saying Marcus Freeman had his team ready to play and remember they had very late off the game. Very late offensive coordinator turnover in this program so Tommy Reese was there then Sabin went and got him so they elevated Rod Parker or draw yeah I always struggle with his name they elevated tight ends coach look really good yesterday one game sample size you know who they play this week Tennessee state Tennessee state is rolling in the South Bend this week Tennessee state is playing a game on national television and Tennessee states right by the YMCA I work out at so it's good news for everyone. It's good news for everyone around here congrats to Marcus Freeman though it's it's not easy it's not easy to have a football team look that prepared in week one sometimes even if you play against air they don't look that prepared half these teams suck during warm ups and those are just drills so congrats to Marcus Freeman one and oh one and oh that's what that means they're watching us in Tokyo Japan by way of mobile Alabama. Hoops amongst us has another that phrase a time or two they're watching us in top sham Maine and Florence Alabama thank you guys so much it looks like a landfill in front of me Colin look at this I got post it's all over the place. I haven't even taken a sip from the chalice and that's because we still got I'm trying to pace myself this is a very very very heavy packet of paper still in front of me. Alright let's continue to roll on it is prediction night we have we have trained for this we've geared ourselves up for this. I heard heard by the way on the street that a number of people are starting to inquire as to what the mysterious liquid is in the chalice of supremacy some of you think it's alcohol it the rest of you know me better than that. But I have not revealed what this drink is and I'm going to tell you why it's very simple the company that manufactures this liquid does not sponsor this show this is not Academy sports and outdoors juice in other words and so until they do. It's just some mysterious liquid chalice of choice liquid that's what we call it for now let's go to the big 12. Big 12 picks who is playing for the conference title who's winning this conference the identity of this conference I can't stress this enough is different than it was. Last year last year really the last few years it's been very competitively balanced it's looked like the pack 12 looks this year that is not it. I am telling you there is a slam dunk favorite in this conference in its Texas there is a slam dunk number two and that's Oklahoma that means nothing once they kick it off. But there is a separation in my mind there's a separation of tier one and it may just be Texas alone into your one but Oklahoma's up there too. So like I said that guarantees nothing especially in this conference I know that I know that I know that how competitive is tier two though or am I even right about tier one or will it all just be one giant tier two. You know what the hidden story is in the big 12 the depth of coaching talent is insane here. All the good coaches aren't just in two conferences guys go past Sark and Brent Vennibles frankly we got more questions about those guys than we have about half a dozen other coaches in the conference. Chris Climent at Kansas State is excellent. Think about what life holds doing at Kansas and it's going to have the most returning production in the country this year let's see what he does with it. Dave Aranda is just hanging out at Baylor Matt Campbell's that I was state and all the sudden this programs falling off the lead pack a little bit and everyone's forgotten about him. Mike Gandhi is still at Oklahoma state Joey McGuire is doing and is in the process of continuing to do great things at Texas tech could really flash on the national radar this year. Gus Malzahn is now a big 12 head coach and you may be thinking yourself okay but that's it right like surely he's not just going to keep naming names guys I didn't even list the dude who just took his team of the national title last year. Sonny Dykes is at TCU we just got to the eighth name I listed and oh by the way this guy played for a national title last year they're really deep they're really deep and talented at the coaching position and while those guys don't take the field they impact things in a big way. The sleeper team in this conference I think is Texas tech and unlike the SEC in the big 12 if you're a sleeper team you could legitimately win the conference. Like Texas techs unranked in the AP right now. Couldn't be us and the J people we got him in the top 25 if you're looking for a team that could bottle that sort of TCU energy from last year I think it could be Texas tech even more than TCU this year. There is a thought floating around the college football sphere. False I might add but it's floating nonetheless that I don't like TCU which is insane I'll address it in a second but Texas tech that over under seven and a half wins. Man if they get off to a hot start at that organ game in week two is so underrated because it's the same day Texas plays Bama Utah goes to bailer that day wild day wild day in the big 12 but don't overlook that game out there and love it. How many kids in Eugene organ you think have ever been to Lubbock Texas how many how many do's on the coaching staff have ever been to Lubbock Texas I would love I would love to sit that coaching staff down. No guide no Google take this pin and point to Lubbock Texas on this map of the state of Texas. Some folks would get exposed some folks would get exposed anyway. So all those coaches plus Sarkin Venables but the sleeper team aside from Texas tech in the big 12 I think Kansas and we were kind of going back and forth will should we mention Kansas will of course shame on you Jesse of course we should mention Kansas. Because Jesse was the one standing in the way not me number one in returning production this is a very controversial stat it's it's like returning production is the new returning starters stat. So there are people who care about returning starters and there are people like me who couldn't care less about it well the people who couldn't care less about returning starters. We lean on things like returning production and then the stat nerd crowd looks down on us and says there's so many more important things. I didn't say it was the end all be all I'm not going miss Cleo on you and claiming that this stat and this stat alone tells me everything I need to know. I just think it's noteworthy that's all I don't see a lot of randos when in conference titles so I like to know a few names on the backs of the jerseys. They experienced everything last year at Kansas they started hot just like Illinois then they cooled off and lost their quarterback in the process. That is big 12 preseason player of the year Jalen Daniels at quarterback by the way. So watch Kansas and TCU okay so everyone claims I hate TCU now because I made the grave mistake of saying I don't think they'll finish top four in the conference. Well I got news for you I didn't predict them to go to the national title last year either and they did that so hoops really cares but I don't think they're going to finish top four only because they have to hit on all these portal moves. That's what happens when you lose what they lost player wise and coach wise maybe they just completely shot the moon maybe they did. I I am in the skeptical have to see it to believe it camp but Chandler Moore still there quarterback still there they start off with Colorado they're going to be on national TV they're going to win that game spoiler alert and so we'll see they got a they got a tough little treacherous month of November at Texas tech Texas baler at OU so those are sleepers but look we're here to talk about conference championships and conference winners are we not. Before I reveal it I want to tell you do not give up on teams in this conference when they lose again do not give up on teams in this conference when they lose two games Ryan McGrady special here from stats and info the last three big 12 champs. Have all had to or more conference losses not even out of conference guys there winning conferences out there with two losses in league play. So it's in some ways only just getting good once team start losing. Conference championship I'm taking Texas but I'm taking them over Oklahoma state a team I think is going to come out of nowhere and surprise people this year after they fell off a cliff last year when we first start with cowboys so my gun is really good it might know what he's doing and it looks like his roster got gutted by the transfer portal I think it's one of the bigger illusions right now in the big 12 I think they added some good pieces to extremely underrated on the defensive line. I would implore them to figure out the quarterback position but I think they will and I think there's a level of play that I'll get at the quarterback position out of them that's going to have them right in the thick of things and the other thing you need to keep in mind is their schedule is insanely workable. I want you to think about the sentence that's about to come out of my mouth Oklahoma state plays in the big 12. They play one team in the state of Texas the entire year and it's Houston. They don't play Baylor they don't play TCU they don't play Texas they don't play Texas tech how is this possible I don't know. But if they find their footing and they've got time to cause their first conference games Iowa state and then they got a buy week they could do this but eventually if they make it to the conference title game I got Texas wait in there and Texas will win that game and I think Texas will win the big 12 championship they've got everything I need and then some they extend beyond just a big 12 favorite in my mind however to new territory for them if they get a chance. How many losses do they have if they get their big difference between an 11 and one or 12 and one in that case big 12 champ and like an 11 and two or I don't know I mean if they could even theoretically get there with just 10 wins if you got that that's the peak of the mountain for you this year still be really good still a really good year but if they're a playoff contender this will be a formality if Texas is good enough to make the playoff they will stand far and above the table. Now what I didn't do is focus on Oklahoma a lot it's almost like I think Oklahoma is going to be pretty good so I don't have them as a sleeper I also don't see them peaking to the degree that they're in the conference championship game. Therefore in a conference prediction and a conference championship prediction I didn't really have much to say about them I've covered Oklahoma a lot the spring and summer I didn't have a lot to say about them there so I got Texas over Oklahoma state. And I'm either going to be really really right or really really wrong there it's a very very tough conference to predict hey do me a favor by the way as I just peak over here. We are less than 180 subs away from 200,000 subs on the channel so this confirms mathematically that we can do this by the end of the show because well over 400 not 400,000 that would be a record well over 4,000 of you are watching live so just go ahead and make it happen. Hey if you're an Oklahoma state fan in here you really better make it happen no one else is going to do for you what I just did for you I promise and I'm not above rescinding a pick. We have a very very good cause that we're doing on the show we have an auction that we're partnering with CBS to participate in I've always gone on the record is saying never pay money to talk to me never never never never terrible idea whoever advises you to do that kick him out of your social circle. However we partner with Saint Jude a few times a year for cancer research for children and we auction off a private zoom call with me and on that zoom call if you win this bid we we go anywhere you want to. And it's always very interesting conversation most of you want to know behind the scene stuff most of you want to know about your favorite coach most of you want to know about the stories that I can't tell on air some of you have asked me to put Colin or Jesse on but no one's paid enough money for that yet candidly. But this is always really fun it's for a great cause the link for this is in the show description right now so you can you can click on it right now if you want to the bidding is going to go through Tuesday night so Tuesday I think about 6 p.m. It's when this cuts off right before our Tuesday night show actually so that's that's out on the socials but it's also right here in the show description if you're listening on podcast come over to YouTube it's okay over here no one's going to bite you subscribe while you're here and you can find the link there. But that's a really good cause and we have a really really good time I have never had a bad conversation with one of you. Oh it's ACC picks time this was this was the toughest one this was my holdout the ACC was my holdout I settled on all the rest of these picks a little while ago not the ACC though. Okay I'll tell you where I want to start here okay in the ACC I have waited for this moment for so long borderline Phil Collins lyrics here I've waited for this moment all of my life competition for Clemson they've won the ACC seven of the last eight years no one has stepped up consistently FSU and Miami have been utter failures the state of Virginia is nowhere to be found and until recently with FSU it didn't look like it was changing North Carolina maybe every now and then pit maybe every now and then well all of a sudden it looks different now doesn't it in fact I got Florida state one spot ahead of Clemson the preseason JP pole and we all know how how big that factor that is four months down the road. So we got that we've got an internal shake up staff wise period at Clemson I wonder how that affects them just the knowledge that there's another contender in the room to me it's pretty clear where this conference is going at the end of the year but Miami and North Carolina along with pit those are the teams that I think could have something to say about that. So North Carolina very very weak defensively last year I I got to be honest with you I have not bought some of the rumblings that they're going to be significantly improved on that side of the ball and if they're not that means they wasted the career of a really good quarterback and Drake may cause they they will have not gotten anything more than just flashes as a team out of him. Miami is going to have a turnaround this year Miami will be a better football team this year Miami's got two new coordinators and Miami's still got a lot to get back on track they're going to have to rely on true freshmen and transfer portal guys how big is the turnaround. You guys happy with eight wins down there that's where I had you at but if they go over that nine wins ten wins they could be a factor in this Virginia and Virginia tech are so disappointing to me I should be talking about them every year and the good thing is that they're going to have a great time. The coaching staffs are not high enough caliber there I'm not just talking about head coaches the staffs there are not good enough right now they do not measure up they don't compare they got to get better there's no excuse for football at the college level in the state of Virginia to be bad for an extended period of time no excuse for that. The sleepers in this conference Louisville obviously partly because of the pieces partly because of schedule but we've talked about them a lot I feel like on the show. So let's just keep an eye on them it could be a product of both but I think that they could be in this thing just because of schedule alone but pit there's some crazy stuff going on with pit right now. Pit just continues to climb up the odds board so there is there is a lot of wildness happening in the betting markets with pit. It reeks almost like of politics where someone knows something about a candidate is Narduzi running in 2024 I don't know but he keep his team keeps on creeping up the odds board and so filled your covid in case you didn't know of Boston college fame starting quarter back there they're confident in their system and the roster they're always putting guys in the NFL they're never in the top 10 and recruiting they just they know how to do things at pit Duke here's my question well. What if I gave Duke Louisville's schedule because Duke's got Riley Leonard quarterback they have got they have done a great job there Mike Okos done a great job they've gotten the 19th highest level of returning production in college football but they play six of the top six teams in the ACC plus Notre Dame they can't win with that schedule I mean they can't they can't make legitimate noise in the conference with that schedule and so with that in mind who's playing for a conference championship over here. I think it's pretty obvious I mean something will have to really really change drastically but I got Florida state over Clemson in the ACC championship game and you know what I think and this is just a feel here there's no skill in predicting this to me I think Clemson will get him the first time around if I had to bet right now I'd lean Clemson in that first game but I don't think there's going to be much separation in those teams and I think Florida state's going to be good enough to punch a ticket to a rematch in Charlotte and I think the team Florida state may be if they're able to stay healthy by December could be a better version than the one Clemson plays that Saturday evening in death Valley I think Florida states can end up winning the thing and same question as I had with Texas if they win it is it a two-loss team is it a one-loss team what kind of team are we looking at is it more than just a conference champ because you know right now to me the ACC is right there in line with like the big 12 the pack 12 in wondering will their champ be high caliber enough to be included in the college football playoff and I still struggle going back and forth on that but yeah I didn't know I was doing that as of like two days ago and I'm taking Florida state slight slight number two in the odds market right now behind Clemson to win the conference I'm taking Florida state to win the conference so there you go Brian McFadden you tried to talk me into it seven months ago and I'm there for you now oh boy you know what's become tradition around here I forgot about this I've put chap stick on about once a show for the past three weeks and it served me very well don't have chap lips kids we're entering that time of year humidity is only about 80 degree dew point around here right now is getting kind of crisp the once upon a Saturday tour is headed to Salt Lake City Utah I'm flying there this Wednesday it's a Thursday game do I care no I do not the once upon a Saturday tour will be in a town we will be at a game of our choice every Saturday this fall if you're new to this show here's what's up let me break it down for you we were the most blessed people on the face of the earth number one because a major company pays me to do nothing but talk college football all year and then they let me pick whichever game I want to go to and just stand on the sideline and added bonus this Thursday we will do our show live from Utah I think inside the stadium I believe before the game so so our Thursday edition of late kick live is going to be really early in the day the tentative plan is three o'clock eastern one o'clock mountain time so I'll I'll send out final word on that but anyway yeah it's going to be a load of fun I've never been to a game at Utah and there is a very strong rumor very strong that we're also going to show up at a Saturday game but we just haven't announced which one it is because I won't be alone because a couple of the fine gentlemen who are just in this room over here to my right are going to accompany me which means I'm going alone because a lot of you think they don't exist but yeah we'll probably see some of you guys Saturday but on the record first stop in the once upon a Saturday tour is eight thirty one twenty three and that is out in Salt Lake City Utah and we're looking extra forward to that because like I said we've never been to a game there and so we will announce our next destination on the tour every Sunday night so our week two destination we will announce next Sunday night and so on and so forth hey I had a question on Twitter today I wanted to fit this in the show remember we've got national championship predictions still coming up make sure you're subscribed to the channel if you haven't already let's just get a little updated count here we still need about 150 150 subs and I know good and well about forty seven percent of you are not subscribed to the channel and I know that you have it in your heart to do what's right me maw would want it this way yours not mine you already know how mine feels your me maw would want it this way you can let me maw down tonight on the lords day you can let me maw down I don't think so subscribe to the channel please Jamari hit us up from Spartanburg South Carolina and he asked which coaches would I say are feeling the most pressure this year Jimbo Fisher is a slam dunk number one Jimbo's feeling a ton of pressure the rule on our show is there two kinds of pressure you've got competitive pressure which means you're just in a high stakes environment which to some degree everyone feels some more than others but competitive pressure doesn't mean your jobs on the line the other kind of pressure is job security pressure full disclosure I'm not sure which one Jimbo's feeling maybe a little bit of both but man this is a place where every other box is checked I told you guys a little while ago I'll tell you once more because a lot of you have come back to the channel for the fall there is a widely held school of thought that A&M's got everything else they need now they may have the head coach they need too but there is a school of thought that if they don't get it done this year they are more likely than you think to pull the trigger out there because they know else where they've got everything there's nothing they lack in that scenario where they win six games this year there's nothing they lack other than the right head coach so Jimbo is definitely feeling that pressure I think Neil Brown at West Virginia is feeling the most preseason pressure for his job of any power five head coach in the country and I mean look I I know some folks around that program thought they were going to move on him after last year and they didn't okay so are we going to find ourselves watching Neil Brown finish the season this year are they going to have a good year and make it a moot point or is it going to be one of those deals like it in Nebraska last year or like it Wisconsin where they get four games into the season five games into the season and then they hit the dump button and it makes you say well why did you even start the year with them which is a valid question I think Lincoln Riley at USC is feeling pressure competitive pressure not job security pressure I go back 24 hours where a lot of you guys were watching them struggle statistically on defense against San Jose state I think that'll get cleaned up to a degree but what if it doesn't what if they're just not good not good again this year well I'll tell you what'll happen there'll be some really really tough decisions little have to be made because I'm you can't maintain that defensive staff and and continue to think that you're going to be involved in like postseason consideration they're going to the big 10 next year like you think that there are about to be subpar defensively in that league of course they're not they can't afford to be that in the pack 12 much less the big 10 so I think that Lincoln Riley's feeling that kind of pressure the bad part for him is it's kind of in a given season it's out of his control now it's in his control to hire his DC but he doesn't have anything to do with defense so there's that I think Billy Napier is feeling a lot of pressure at Florida at crazy you know it's a good idea it's a good time for us to bring our friend the alien back to the broadcast we do this occasionally from time to time when we need an outside opinion some of you use research firms focus groups we just have a hypothetical alien that we bring on in the show and he comes down is it hey alien how how have you been long time no talk there's a guy that's had a grand total of one season at a program that was pretty much a tire fire when he took it over and the alien would probably say something like oh okay well give him a few years right and we say not so fast alien lie these people want it in a microwave at which point you explain to the alien what a microwave is and I think the alien or any outsider for that perspective would look and say all we are saying is give Billy a chance and those who are in the Florida fan base look back and say we don't feel like taking time to do this he's got the portal he's got everything in his disposal he needs to be a lot better this year now you may think that's irrational but it's reality and so there look here's the good thing for him they're over under five and a half in the wind column or the wind total so if they go seven and five this year we can legitimately say he over achieved I think they're going over five and a half wins by the way I've got him top 25 and the J people so means nothing he's still got to follow through on it it would be very good it would be very very good for him to get that first win at Utah by any means necessary this Thursday Ryan Day is the one feeling the most competitive pressure because Ryan Day contrary to popular belief out there runs no risk of losing his job this year if he loses to Michigan for a third time in a row I don't believe that I think it's insanity and I I respect I respect the tradition up there I get I get why you would say that no no no now this is a this is a program that makes very sound decisions when it comes to coaching then I get rid of a guy if he goes eleven and one and loses to Michigan 30 to 24 in the big house that's not happening but but and one day I'll tell you I probably won't because it was it was off the record I had a little talk of Ryan Day about that last month he gets it man he gets it he doesn't shy away from it he he knows what time it is and so if any of you had started to think about feeling sorry for him don't he doesn't need you to he doesn't no one up there does shout out Jerry Emig there getting some face time just barely I think still though knowing the unique dynamic of that rivalry Ohio State Michigan and knowing how much they out resource everyone else up there it's so weird if the alien was still here he already flew back home if the alien was still here I would try to explain to him it doesn't matter if you win all of them if you lose that Michigan game up there in this sport it's considered a failure gasp yeah that's pressure it's real pressure can you imagine how uncomfortable life is if you lose consecutive games to Michigan much less three in a row which hasn't happened in that series this millennium that's pressure he's not going to lose his job but that's pressure and Steve Sarkieson at Texas you got everybody with a live microphone in their face from coast to coast me included telling you that this team's going to be really good this year and it's easy because we don't have to coach and we don't have to play so I can I can confidently tell you it's been easy for me to say what that about them I don't have to back it up they do and they're the ones who get hated on if it goes sideways not me I'll just blame the model I'll throw the model under the bus in a second I just want the credit I have no interest in the blame but Steve Sarkieson can't duck the blame he's got to take the blame and so if they don't win 10 games if they don't win the big 12 it's a failure for them this year I think they know it I think Steve Sarkieson believes the same thing and I think he's fully in the belief that he's got the team to get it done and I believe he does too that's why I predicted him to get the job done but whether it's Jimbo or Billy Napier Sark Ryan Day Lincoln Riley Neal Brown all those guys are feeling some kind of pressure this year and I could go through the rest of the list of coaches in America those are just the ones that stand out in my mind we say a couple more things to get to and there was there was a thought in the in the studio that the show may take two hours tonight so at least we're going to come in under that 116 subs away from 200,000 what if I went on a hunger strike I'm not going on a hunger strike because I'm really hungry so I got to go eat right after the show but maybe for 300,000 I'll go on a hunger strike all right here's what we're going to do catch you up where we are I got to give you pack 12 predictions I've got to make a very special betting related announcement to to and then we're picking the playoff I'm going to flat out tell you who I think is going to win the national championship all that's coming up right now like the video if you haven't already and subscribe to the pod and channel if you haven't already in the pack 12 it's anybody's ball game there are six teams out here there's a six pack of teams and the odds say that pretty much any of them could win the title this conference has college football playoff contenders but I know a lot of you don't believe that that's okay it's important for me to be right here it's important for one or two of them to elevate we can't just have bumper cars out there I've got to have one or two of them elevate who plays defense I think in a conference full of quarterbacks will determine who wins this last year listen to what stats and info came up with paper pop last year the pack 12 had five of the top 10 scoring offenses in the country yeah pretty good not surprising right well defensively things weren't nearly as pretty out there Utah as of this moment is the only team with a projected top 30 defense according to S&P plus and they've got big time health questions at quarterback now for the record I disagree with the S&P plus projection bill commonly pretty much invented math but I do think that there's going to be at least one other time out there that lands inside the top 30 and total defense but anyway sleepers in the pack 12 I don't think we have anywhere to go out here I don't think there's a team outside of that top six that's going to make legitimate noise in the in the conference championship picture so the top six in case you haven't been paying attention southern cow Oregon Washington Utah Oregon State and UCLA JP poll is very high on both teams from Oregon just let me spoil the ending for you there do you do you really think that cow it either of the Arizona teams Stanford Washington state or Colorado are going to be a factor there I don't I just don't if you disagree more power to you hopefully you're right it's going to be very fun to watch Jaden Rashada start at quarterback for Arizona state it's going to be very fun to watch Travis Hunter play both ways probably at a really high level for Colorado but I don't think those teams are going to make noise but here's where I differ from the AP poll if you're asking me for the tiers of teams in the pack 12 I think it's Oregon and USC and tier one and that's it and then I go tier two and I got Oregon State and Utah and UCLA and Washington but I wonder is tier one bigger than that is it smaller than that is there no tier one is it just a bunch of above average teams in tier two well that's what we get to conference championship predictions for right so the conference championship picture in the pack 12 I'm it may not emerge until later in the year especially with USC not even entering the meat of their schedule until mid October but you know where I'm going with this I think Oregon's the most underrated team in the pack 12 AP versus JP poll I'm putting Oregon in the pack 12 championship game I'm putting UCLA in the pack 12 championship game more on that in a second and I think Oregon and Dan Lanning will take it over Chip Kelly and the UCLA Bruins when the dust settles out there in Las Vegas UCLA is going to raise some eyebrows here a couple of things they keep getting better they've got their quarterback situation situation worked out and that doesn't mean that the guy who starts week one is going to be starting in week nine it could be the opposite that's the point they've got all the insurance they need with garbage and I think you'll probably start at the beginning of the year and if he goes wire to wire that means he played well enough and he does if he doesn't it means that Dante Moore had what it took to overtake QB1 which is all the better for them they have fortified their lines of scrimmage they went and got really really good high level help in the portal at the running back position they unlike some of these teams in the top tier only play I think three of the other top five teams in the top half of the league all the rest of them play either four of them or all five of them and I think that by the end of the year you're going to look at UCLA and say hmm a lot better than I thought they'd be but I think Oregon's a lot better than you think they'll be on both lines of scrimmage including the offensive line where preview magazine syndrome or PMS would lead you to believe that's going to be weakness for them offensive lines not going to be a weakness for Oregon defensive line and defensive personnel and versatility is going to allow them to be a lot more multiple on that side of the ball than they were last year and bonix is still there and so I think they're going to not only win the league I think they're also going to be in playoff contention I think is going to be a really really good year for Oregon in their last year in the pack 12 I have got two things to tell you I've got an eyelash in my eye okay we took care of that just that easy you know what's back the Ramanoodle Express is back this year felt so good to say it's been bottled up so many people asked questions about it the Ramanoodle Express is back starting 48 hours from now I will have picks for week one in 48 hours the Ramanoodle Express killed it we put kids through college two years ago and then last year we treaded water and we finished just above 500 and you know what it's no way to live and so I punish myself I'm that kind of kid who gives his own self a spanking I don't need my parents to do it it's always been a policy of mine and so we're back I want you to put the word out that we're back the Ramanoodle Express is back and you know what else double paper pop Friday night lines is back so if you're not already following on Instagram at late kick Josh for two reasons number one there is so much valuable behind the scenes content at these games we go to in that Instagram story frankly there's a lot of stuff in that Instagram story that pure appeals back the layers and the curtain to the degree that I don't on the show so you're missing out big time if you're not following on Instagram at late kick Josh but also on Friday night very laid back sort of off the record sort of an inside club sort of thing not like a country club like management part of but sort of just an inside club we get together you and I on Instagram live and I put out the call about an hour before we do it and it's just us it's not even like a CBS production it's just us and I have the model pulled up normally I'm in a hotel room on the road somewhere while everyone else is out getting in trouble I'm in my hotel and I'm grinding away but on a computer model and you guys toss me games and I tell you what the model thinks sometimes I hand out late bets at the very least I give you my opinion on the board the next day it fun is had by all and we are we're full steam ahead so Ramanoodle expresses back Friday night lines is back make sure you're following at late kick Josh if you haven't already I have got one more thing on the docket here Jesse did you see the surgeon subs there we are we're less than 80 away I mean we got like 5,000 people watching live hey 80 of you really quick subscribe to the channel and so so that we can not have to worry about this when I drive home tonight I just want to drive home in peace it's that time of year it's time we have got to do college football playoff picks and we got a crown a national champion and this is as real as it gets on a show that doesn't focus on the playoff a lot this is just about the last time you'll hear me talk about the playoff until November let's do one thing Colin there it is right on cue let's remember our conference championship winners I'm taking Bama over Georgia in the SEC doesn't mean anything both of them could make the playoff I'm taking Ohio State over Iowa in the big 10 the big 12 give me Texas over a surprise Oklahoma State team I like Florida State over Clemson in the ACC and I take Oregon over UCLA in the pack 12 championship game I had to go back and forth several times on how I think this playoff is going to shake out and as I posted on Twitter earlier today at WrestleMania 17 Vince McMahon told Michael Cole you want shocking tonight you'll get shocking then what did he say Jesse I guarantee it I don't like following the crowd and it's not just because I want to dress differently although obviously I do I just don't think the crowd's right very often me mom used to tell me all the time you see the crowd headed somewhere you find the fork in the road and you take the deviant path don't be a deviant child take the deviant path cause the deviant children are all hanging out together I gotta be real that wasn't a meanwhile code I just made that up so here's what we're gonna do we're gonna have Ohio State win the big 10 and we're gonna have them lock up the number one overall seat Ohio State in the playoff I got Bama win in the SEC I've got Bama probably losing a game in the regular season and therefore I think Alabama is going to lock up the number two seed on the strength of being the SEC champ here's where it gets a little muddy I'm really high on Oregon and so not only do I think the Oregon ducks are going to win the pack 12 I think Oregon is going to be a team that surges I think Bonix is gonna have a tremendous year not just because of the poster in New York City I think Oregon's gonna make the playoff and I think they're gonna be the three seed and that's because the four seed is actually coming from the big 10 and it's not Michigan I think Penn State is going to find a way to lose one game and no more and they may not play in the big 10 championship game but that one loss non-conference champ team that so many people will think is either Bama or Georgia or it's Ohio State or Michigan I think is Penn State you give me Ohio State you give me Bama as the one and two I've got Oregon three and I got Penn State four there are obviously glaring omissions there so let me address Georgia my thought on Georgia is I think they're going to lose a regular season game and I've got them losing in Atlanta and a two lost Georgia team's not going to the playoff it's kind of sacrilegged say right now it's really not guys it's just hard to do it's very hard to pull this off there is stuff always working against you in this sport but when you're trying to walk a tightrope 100 floors above the road it's really really hard to pull off I don't obviously love them losing Branson Robinson and that's before the season it's not that they don't have capable guys in the backfield I don't know that they've got like game changing difference makers back there and if I also don't know that they've got the kind of pass rush they've had in years past and I'm looking at Carson Beck as highly as I think of him and asking him to do with that receiver room what no one's done in a long time and that's find a thousand yard receiver somewhere in there I just think the margins are a lot thinner than the rest of America does now it sounds kind of hypocritical because I got Georgia power rated as the number one team in the country right now and if they played the playoffs today I'd pick him to win the national championship I think the course of the season is going to bear out that some teams are going to get better and I don't necessarily know that that Georgia surge that we've seen is going to happen this year so I got them losing a regular season game I don't know which one because that's not how I choose regular season records and I think they're going to lose Atlanta so Georgia out of the playoffs shocking though that may be and I got Michigan out of the playoffs too which was very simple but also very difficult so what I think is going to happen is I think they're going to Penn State and I've got them losing that game and I also favor Ohio State over them at the end of the year and so that would that would mean Michigan's not in the big 10 title game and Michigan certainly Michigan doesn't have probably the strength to schedule to even lose one game and make the playoffs unless some other stuff goes right but I certainly don't have them in there if they lose two games so we got Bama Oregon in the two three slot we got Ohio State versus Penn State in a rematch in the one four spot I think Alabama is going to be in the national championship game I think Ohio State is going to be in the national championship game in a rematch of that 2020 COVID year I don't think that Ohio State will employ the same guys at linebacker to cover Alabama's best receiver as they did that particular game I think Alabama is going to be the Ohio State for the national championship so that's obviously a phenomenal year for Ryan Day in the Buckeyes it is a phenomenal year for Nick Sabin in Alabama they are going to look so radically different both of them are going to look so radically different this prediction will sound ludicrous when you watch how shaky they look at times early in the year I'm telling you and I'm telling myself because it's my prediction I'm telling you you're going to have to give them time and hopefully they don't drop a couple of games and remove themselves from contention you give Bama time they're going to round into the best team in the country you give Ohio Ohio State time they're going to round into being right up there with being the best team in the country the reason I'm going with Alabama is because I don't ever think the ability to win a championship playing the style they're going to play this year left the room it's just that the team that was the best at doing it Alabama voluntarily decided to change their formula and they did it very effectively they're going to look so radically different this year but I'm going to tell you one more time and I've probably not been this blunt as I will right now because there's nothing left to hide the seasons here I've never heard folks talk about an offensive line there like they've talked about in Tuscaloosa the ones who have been there and I am specifically telling you I look I think they will annihilate people on the offensive line this year like you haven't seen them doing several years I think they go about seven eight with guys they fully trust to play the style of ball they're going to play it is not going to be high flying it's not going to overly impress you it's not like watching a cheetah chase down its prey it's a boa constrictor and you keep sitting there and you watch him and he gets tighter and tighter and tighter and you're like is something going to happen no he's just going to crush him to death bam is just going to crush teams of death or in this case they're going to grind him to death and it's not going to be fun they call it murder ball for a reason but murder balls back this year and I think Alabama is going to win a national championship because of it and you may be bored to tears in the process but that's the direction I'm going if I'm wrong I'm wrong side note if they're playing that style of ball Jalen Milrose the quarterback form pretty much think it's been that way all fall but I think Milrose the guy form so with that in mind not that I was wrong on any of that but with the outside possibility that I'm wrong on a couple of things I will welcome in the comment section the sorry that my computer went dead for a second the areas where you think that I am wrong so as I said last when was it Colin last summer we were at elite eleven I think it was last summer yeah yeah so so quick story and then we'll wrap the show up so last summer we're out in Los Angeles I'm on a football field doing the show and I lost all track of what was going on and we hit a hundred thousand subs on the show live and they let me know like in my ear this little thing right here they let me know that we hit it and I didn't even know what to do I was taking a back by it so I thanked everyone and management was there and we went off the air and that was that well tonight we kind of knew we had a shot and so I'm happy to announce right here at eight twenty two central time in the year of our lure two thousand twenty three on August 27th we have hit two hundred thousand subs live on air again who's to the thunk it well I would have Jesse would have Bradley Colin you guys management probably punch an air behind a gate somewhere down it can you imagine the anger in the country club down there bad night to be a rich man South of Franklin probably a new song that will emerge on the charts this week rich men doing pretty good how about rich men South of Franklin where management resides the right people believed and we made it so with that in mind we can start the college football season I appreciate you guys so much for doing this I know there are thousands there will be tens of thousands of new people over the next couple of days who watch or listen to this show because this is the week everyone searches college football podcast college football show and so you'll find us for the first time we're not the only one out there we try and be the best one out there I would encourage you to check out a bunch of them but I don't think anyone's going to work harder to give you what you want than this group of people so we appreciate you giving us your time subscribe to the channel subscribe to the podcast that's literally all we ask cause the rest of it's going to be free and if you are tired of what they don't give you elsewhere that they used to you'll find it here and if you don't find it let me know and I'll provide it for you so for direct to Colin for producer Jesse for Bradley the associate I'm Josh fate welcome to the 200k club we'll see you same time Tuesday night until then take care and God bless