Overrated & Underrated Teams + 2023 Tour Reveal | Late Kick Live Ep. 417

Oh, America's college football show Jam Pack tonight, as Uncle Jimmy would say, done in line with Alabama. If you start at quarterback for the University of Alabama, your word is gold. Greg McElroy started for quarterback for Alabama, his word sounds like this. If you're covering the sport the right way, like Josh Payt does, I'm going to listen your show. I'm going to support you and, hey, what's good for the goose is good for the gander. We want the sport to be covered the right way. So we're going to play a game that Josh Payt's played for the last six, seven months. That's what if? Thank you, Gregory. We're Jam Packed. Hi, atop an excited downtown Nashville, Tennessee. And why are we excited? Yes, we have college football on the horizon, but we're also excited around here tonight because it is time for us to reveal not only the name of the 2023 tour, but week one destination also on tap tonight. We'll do that at some point in the show. Overrated teams, underrated teams, I'm debuting the JP poll Sunday night, but I'm going to give you a little sneak peek. We have leaks happening on the show tonight. I'm going to give you eight teams, four of them I think are overrated, four of my think are underrated. And I'm going to tell you exactly what the JP poll slash model thinks about it. Believe it or not, it's not going to be on the show tonight. The model is lower on Texas than the AP poll is. You will not see a bigger upset this year. I got camp intel. I mean, I got a loaded batch of camp intel for you. The Bama quarterback situation warrants its own segment tonight. There are some rumors. There are some things floating around out there. They got to be scrimmaged this weekend. This is legitimately a national championship caliber team and they have no clue who's going to start at quarterback. I'm going to try and make some sense of that. As I said, it is so jam packed tonight. I'm happy to have you with us. Wax a hatchy Texas is tuned in and it's not even Chris Hummer. So we got at least more than one viewer there. Milton, Florida, Louisville, Kentucky Salt Lake City, Utah. We appreciate you guys so much. Just a little heads up and then I got to get moving because we got a lot to get to some time in the next seven days. The paid state store is opening and I'm not announcing it. It'll just happen and it'll be there and I'll probably send you a little heads up on the socials. We got some good stuff in there, some limited supply stuff, but some good stuff in there. I would just encourage you guys to be watching the live show Sunday night. That's all I'll say right now. Camp intel everywhere. Stuff is starting to happen. Roster moves, depth chart moves are starting to be made. I got to start at Penn State. So getting a good batch of intel from State College, hearing really good things about their tight end room. It wouldn't be the first time they've had a good tight end room up there, but they lost Brandon or Brenton Strange to the NFL. So a lot of times in preview magazine season, everyone's about who you lost. And there may be some names like Theo Johnson, for example, people have watched Theo Johnson there before and make no mistake. They expect big things from Theo Johnson this year. However, Tyler Warren is the name I want you paying attention to. If you're watching Big 10 play this year, if you're watching Penn State, West Virginia, week one, there are people close to the Penn State program who think Tyler Warren is probably the best kept secret there. He played last year, but he played with, I think it was an undisclosed injury. He's full go. He is a mismatch. Theo Johnson and Tyler Warren both make up a really, really good and probably underrated Penn State tight end room. Keep an eye. I believe number 44 there, Tyler Warren. Keep an eye on him. We're already really high on Penn State this year. I have not given out our Big 10 predictions quite yet, but he's one of many reasons why. What's happening at Kentucky? I caught some grief today. I caught some flak because I said out of all the teams, I mean, every one of them guys out of all the teams that I've gotten intel on in college football. There is no program where it sounds like things are going better than expected behind the scenes than Kentucky, hearing a lot of good things out of Lexington. So you know Devin Leary's coming in and he's starting at quarterback for them and he's replacing Will Levis. Now again, preview magazine culture would lead you to believe that a program like Kentucky, quote unquote, cannot lose a guy the caliber of Will Levis and just keep on ticking. Well, I'm going to do you one better and I'm not alone in this, by the way. There are people really informed around that program and feel the same way. I'm going to suggest to you they could lose Will Levis and improve at quarterback. Now it doesn't just have to do with Devin Leary. I'm going to get to him in a second, but bringing Liam Cohen back as your offensive coordinator also has a lot to do with this. But let me talk to you about Devin Leary. So Leary comes in from NC State. He started like a million games. He looked good in the spring, but he was kind of like a quiet sort of leader in the spring. He's really a merged man like fall camp could not have gone better. It's probably been a better than best case scenario as it relates to what Kentucky thought they were getting in Devin Leary and what they have gotten in him. They haven't played a game yet. I know they're ONO. I get everything that you're saying to me in the replies. I can predict what the comments are going to say already. They hit a grand slam. Can you imagine if Devin Leary was in Tuscaloosa, Alabama right now, for example, Kentucky got him. There's a world where Kentucky gets the best quarterback playing the SEC this year and I'm talking about pound for pound, all things considered. There's a world where that happens. So that means there's a world where Kentucky is really good. I think their offensive line has come along probably as good or better than they thought it would. Again, getting Liam Cohen back at offense coordinator means a lot here. But Aaron Gerson has given us a lot of really good feedback over at KatzPause.com. That's our Kentucky site for those interested in the 24-7 sports network. Keeping all of your eligible alive is always really good feedback. You get on the offensive side, like when you're trying to compliment a quarterback and you're looking at him in fall camp and he hasn't ever played for you before, when when offensive minded people say things like he keeps all of his eligible's alive. It just means he keeps his options alive. He's really good about progressions. He's really good about checking down. He's really good about spreading the ball around, doesn't get too fixated on one target. They got a really good quarterback at Kentucky this year. They're over under win total seven and a half. That's why I had some of you come at me and say, well, it was the Texas thing except insert Kentucky. Well, we do this every year. We do whatever year. Well, we hype up Kentucky. I don't. Well, some people do and they never deliver. They've got two 10 win seasons in the past five years there. Before that last time they did it was the late 70s. The last time Kentucky won double digit games before this recent stretch was the year rumors came out by Fleetwood Mac. This is the second show in a row. I've been able to reference rumors. What are you talking about? They've been great. It's Kentucky just because they're not getting Alabama and Georgia results, doesn't mean they've underachieved. They've massively overachieved. It's Kentucky. That's the whole point. So I hear really good things out of the bluegrass state. Now I'm not going to spend a ton of time on Texas because we talked about them last show, but I wanted to switch over to the other side. Everyone's talking about the bright shiny objects. Everyone's talking about Texas and wide receiver room as are we and running back room and quarterback as are we. But our guy, Chip Brown, over at Horns 24-7, I saw he put out his position group confidence meter, which is almost a good enough idea where I think we should steal it, by the way. But you know what's crazy is out of all of the position groups on that team. A guy that covers the team as close as anyone thinks defensive line is the most confident position for Texas right now. Now would you just think that on the surface? I would have thought wide out. That's number two, by the way. So Texas, when you think about them in your mind over the past few years, what do you think about? Because I think about them not being able to stand up for four quarters defensively. I think about them getting thrown on a lot. And yet what have we been talking about on this show at least? We've talked a fair amount about the offense, but I told you, and I'll tell you again, because it's the feedback I keep getting. It has not been easy to run the ball in those Texas practices. And I don't think it's caused their offensive line as terrible. I don't think it's caused that running back stable as terrible. I really think they've improved massively. The kind of bodies they have on the lines of scrimmage specifically on the defensive front and starting to develop depth there as well. They haven't had that. Folks can casually tell you all they want to. Oh, Texas has always had talent. We've gone over that. No, they haven't. Not like this they haven't. So offensive line, I think offensive line is going to be okay for them. I think they're facing a really, really overwhelming unit at times in practice. And so the feedback we get right now is it is not easy going, trying to run between the tackles against that Texas front. Let's keep an eye on it. Let's keep an eye. What about West Virginia? Michael Casaza runs Ears Sports and Ears Sports is the place you can go if you want a lot more on West Virginia. But there's a lot of hot seat talking around Neil Brown. We don't do a whole lot of the hot seat stuff on this show. I reference it. It's reality. There's a lot of pressure on Neil Brown to win this year. He's on his third offense, a coordinator in three years. He will call plays this year. They haven't been a great portal team. The reality is West Virginia is probably going to have to be a great portal team. They haven't been maybe until now, and I'm skeptical, maybe until now. They feel like they probably hit better in this past cycle than they did the past few cycles. Kevin Carter was a guy they got from the portal, who will probably be number one receiver for them, or at least an integral part of their passing offense. He was the number 72 ranked transfer who was the number 15 wide receiver. He came from NC State, so he headed out when a lot of the other guys headed out. They got a couple of DB's, Anthony Wilson, Bini Bishop, Bini Bishop, really good name. Possible all-name candidate there. If West Virginia hit on those guys, it's no guarantee. It's not like all of a sudden you sound the upset horn against Penn State in week one, but those kind of guys could be the difference in five wins versus eight wins and Neil Brown being there next year versus him not. That's something to keep an eye on. At Ole Miss, I didn't want to get past this before mentioning, Michael Trigg was there number one tied in last year, and Trigg's running with the twos, or at least he has been the last few practices, and that's because Caden Prescorn is running with the ones. I say that name very delicately, Caden Prescorn. He comes there by way of Memphis and had 602 receiving yards, seven touchdowns for Memphis last year, depth at the very least, being provided at the tight end position. They have a defense at Ole Miss, made up almost entirely of transfers. Listen to this. So, I think it was yesterday or maybe today, just recently in practice. If you look at the starting 11 on defense, eight of the 11 transferred there within the last two cycles. When we were at SEC Media Days, someone asked Lane Kiffin, do you know the names of all the players on your roster? And Kiffin was honest and said, I probably couldn't pass that test right now. And look, that's not really that big a deal in the transfer portal era when you're as active as they are. If most guys were honest with you, the ones who have to be active, several of them would say that. And he was talking about the spring, by the way. He was saying, in the spring, we were on the practice field and would be watching post-practice film and would be calling guys by numbers because we literally couldn't remember their names, just boom, boom off the top of our head. Franklin, by the way, is, so I'm looking at Zachary Franklin not practicing because I remember back in the spring, this is still Ole Miss. I remember back in the spring, they had to dismiss Chris Marshall and they were needing help out of the portal at wide receiver. And so they got Franklin and he figured to possibly be a number one for him. He hasn't practiced. So it's not like an immediate crisis right now, but you got, you know, you got chemistry to build. Hopefully you got Jackson Darts still running with the ones at quarterback for those not keeping track. So there are a lot of things in a state of flux right now as it relates to Ole Miss. That's what, again, as Mimal said, that's what got invented fall camp for. We need to give away a childless right quick. This has been going great. This has been going wonderfully. So a childless of supremacy is earned when you support the show in a very, very public manner and when you promote the show in a very, very public manner. Maybe we should send McElroy one, by the way. But tonight, tonight we're sending a childless to our buddy Nathan. What has Nathan been up to lately in his life? Well, he's been moving from somewhere in Indiana to somewhere in Utah. He provided the GPS screenshot as evidence. He said, I'm moving cross country and I put subscribe to late kick all over my car. Is this chalice worthy? Well, Nathan, paper pop, chalice on the way, my friend, DM me, you're shipping info and Jesse slash new Meredith, whoever gets here first, we'll get on that and we'll get a chalice sent you away. Thank you guys so much. The August of chalice giveaway continues on the Sunday night show and I appreciate it. I've seen a lot of you. I can't give one to everyone. I've seen a lot of you and I sincerely appreciate it. Make sure you like the video, by the way, if you're watching live here, a growing audience as we speak. Let's do some what-ifs here. What-ifs have hit chapter 27 and they're getting more and more creative as evidenced by this first what-if tonight. Not quite sure what level of boldness this would be, but Dylan said, what if a team not named LSU or Alabama or Texas A&M wins the SEC West? Well it would be an earthquake in the SEC. It would be an earthquake in the college football playoff picture. We are of course left with either Ole Miss, Auburn, Arkansas or Mississippi State winning the division. That means one of those teams play in Atlanta. Auburn's played there recently, obviously none of the others have been there recently. So number one, I think about who's waiting for them in Atlanta, probably Georgia and you would probably suggest that that means someone's being served up to them. Again, that's all probably because that's what August is about. Who would you think it is though? Just for fun, would you think it's Auburn? Would you think Ole Miss just struck lightning in a bottle or found lightning in a bottle over there in Oxford? You know my proclivity for loving Arkansas. Love them. But I felt a little Mississippi State energy on this. Mississippi State is the one that gets LSU and Bama at home. They don't play Georgia in the regular season. They get Ole Miss at home at the end of the year and really nothing is known about them, which is ridiculous because you should know everything you need to know about them. I'm speaking as the future college football commissioner who tries to know all about every team. I'm saying the public is out to lunch on Mississippi State. One of the most underrated teams in the country, I'm going to talk to you about them later in the show, no one knows anything about them. And like 18 or 19 of their returning starters are going to be seniors this year. It's wild. Also you got like a 15 million yard career pastor who's returning at quarterback and people are like, oh Mississippi State, kind of in a magic. Don't know much about them. They'd probably be the one that pulled this off if someone pulled this off. It's a stretch. I'll grant you that. But if someone did it, maybe it's Zach Arnett. Oh, by the way, that's the story of the year. Zach Arnett takes them to Atlanta, you know, we saw Brian Kelly do it out of nowhere last year. Maybe it's, maybe it's Arnett's term. Next up, this one gets a little, this one gets a little spicy. Braden said, what if Florida State trounces both Miami and Florida in November? Points spread alert. We got them for you. FSU is minus 15 at home against Miami. That's in week 11. So over a two touch down favorite. In week 13, they are favored by nine on the road against Florida. Those are current lines. You could bet money on those right now if you wanted to. Not quite Ramanoodle Express material yet. We'll see. What does trounce mean? Is it two touchdowns? Well, if it is, you just pushed basically against Miami like that's not out of the room of possibility at all. And you covered, but even not significantly against Florida. FSU is favored pretty much to do this. So if they do it, I guess they lived up to expectation, that's the funny thing about expectation. All of a sudden you have to live up to it when it's higher. The second thing would be, imagine recruiting, imagine what they're saying in recruiting. Imagine Mike Norvell and his staff been able to go into living rooms and say, hey, everything else they sell you is irrelevant. We're selling you results. Look what we just did. And it's not going to stop. And whether they're right about that or not, they would have earned the right to preach that in living rooms. They would probably also, let's just be real about this, they would also trigger a massive spike in donations. Their NIL fund down there would massively benefit because of this. So it would all be trending up for Florida State. And then you also have to ask the very, very here and now question of, well, if they trounced both of them, was it in route to going undefeated in the regular season? Did they also do it to Clemson? Whomstelts did they trounce? So that could be fun times, not in Gainesville or Coral Gables necessarily. But that could be fun times. Next up, let's go to the Big Ten. Marshall said, what if Wisconsin upsets Ohio State and wins the Big Ten West? Well, Luke Ficklestock would go through the roof. I would argue it should already be there, but it would validate his vision. They're doing a lot of things different at Wisconsin this year. Some like myself think it'll pay off and pay off pretty big time. I don't know about year one, but they took steps to try and immediately win. They took steps in the transfer portal, namely at quarterback, to try and immediately win. So when does this game happen? This is a little Ohio State Wisconsin Tilt. Well, it happens. What week is it, Jesse? Colin, you don't have to put the schedule up week nine. Okay. So it's a little bit later in the year. I think it's Ohio State's toughest road game, at least in conference. They have to go to Notre Dame, too. The line's nine and a half on this game right now. You could also bet that right now, Ohio State minus nine and a half. It would be a great sign for the Big Ten. It would also be history, because this is the last year of divisions up there. And if Wisconsin wins, if they go on, let's just say to win the conference, the Big Ten West would break an O for streak. They are O and nine. The Big Ten West is O and nine in the conference title game. They never won one. So how fitting would that be? And also, what kind of mess? What kind of blinder would this throw Penn State, Michigan and Ohio State into if Wisconsin just goes on? I know you just said wind division. I'm having fun with it. What if they win the whole conference? And lastly, what about Washington? Talking Washington a little bit later in the show, too. So you want to stick around for that. But in the meantime, Brooks said, what if Washington wins the pack 12? Well, they've got the number two odds to win the pack 12. And that's recent. They overtook Oregon in the odds market. Does someone know something? I don't know. It wasn't me. I didn't bet on him. Yep. So this means Michael Penex shined. This means Michael Penex changed his life forever. I mean, he's about to make life changing money and he was not on a path to do that two years ago by this point at Indiana. They will also Washington. They may also become the only pack 12 team to make the playoff twice. And then they'll, they'll, speaking of two, just keep holding those two fingers up. But then all of a sudden, it's deuces to the pack 12. We gone, we're headed to the big 10. So it would be like one of the, one of the most cruel or appropriate curtains to drop on the chapter of college football that was the pack 12, depending on your perspective. I got so much to get to. We are going to announce a tour destination, a tour name. I got a lot to get to. Academy Sports and Outdoors is where I would like to get you, probably after the show. Academy Sports and Outdoors. Also I should remind you, it is time to gear up for tailgating season. And that's really to me where Academy shines. Yes, the spring sports, yes, outdoor camping, et cetera, grilling, et cetera, they're your destination. But man, when I go to campi, which is the plural of campus, when I go to campi in the fall, and I see those tents all over the place, I really learn a lot. What about the character of someone based on whether it's an Academy Sports and Outdoors tent, or just some generic tent? Like if you're already going to buy one, why not do yourself the favor of shopping with the best? And by best, I don't mean highest price either, quite the opposite in most cases. And then you've got to have the chairs as well. So they got the tents, they got the chairs, they also have the thing you have to grill your food on. In some cases, who knows, you stop by Academy at the right time and they may have even more than that. But if you can't get there in person, can't stress enough, Academy.com is there for all of your outdoor sporting goods needs, your tailgating needs, your life needs. I'm told the cashiers give really good life advice. That's not in the ad copy for me to read. And I know I'm putting a lot of pressure on the Academy cashiers across the country, but they can handle it. I know these people. They can handle it. So Academy Sports and Outdoors, they make our show free for you, feel free to give them a visit. It's that time people, it's time for us to dust off the J people. And Sunday night, I'm going to, I'm going to show you the full J people. I probably should refresh your memory as to what that is because we have like tons of new listeners and viewers a long time ago, we got tired of the A people. Welcome to the club, right? A lot of you have felt that way for a long time. But why complain when you can do something about it? And so I started to do the J people and that's really taking our model and I, I'm not alone on this. I partner with someone who does numbers for a living, just eats, sleeps and breathes numbers, looks at a calculator and is actually attracted to that thing. That's how good this person is with numbers and I partnered with this person and we developed our own model over the years. We use it to bet a lot, but that's not what this is about. This is about power ratings. This is about developing a more true North Star rating system than the very, very hapless A people can sometimes be. The A people I'll let you down, the J people will too, just not nearly as often. Dust our motto. So what I wanted to do is Sunday night, I'll debut that whole thing. But tonight, I wanted to give you four teams that I think are underrated, A people compared to J people and I wanted to give you four teams that are overrated in the interest of fairness, A people versus J people. So Colin, here's your end point, paper stat. Let's look at the A people, let's compare it to our inside baseball J people and let's talk about most underrated teams in the country out of all the teams in the top 25, where the A P disagrees with our model the most, the Oregon ducks are the most underrated team in the top 25. The A P has them at 15. You know where the model had the audacity to rank Oregon, the J people has Oregon at number five, five people. I said five as in on the precipice of playoff contention. That's the biggest discrepancy. I think Bonix is still undervalued. The model thinks Bonix is still undervalued as quarterback, but also, and this is where I think rubber probably meets road about the discrepancy. We think their line of scrimmage talent both sides is still a little undervalued. And that especially goes for offensive line because they're having to replace a lot. So in preview season, in August camp season, people still sometimes can't get it through their heads that just because you're replacing departed starters, it doesn't always mean you fall off. We don't think Oregon's fallen off a lot there. And conversely on the other side of the ball, we think there's a pretty sizable improvement come in this year. So the totality of the roster, the value of the quarterback position, the year one to year two coaching advantage that I think they'll get from Dan landing and a lot of his staff having been there a full year and the energy around the program, which can't really quantify. That's got Oregon way up there in the model way up there. Number five, are you crazy? No. So stay tuned on where we predict them to go in the pack 12 and beyond. Next up, I'm going to do it. I'm going to do it. Am I going to do it? Yeah, I'm going to do it. Texas A&M, one of the most underrated teams in the country. Don't call luchy and tell them to watch the show. AP has A&M at 23. Frankly, I was shocked. They ranked A&M. So good on the voters. They got A&M at 23rd. It's not high enough. The model, the J people has A&M at 14th. Now we just aren't baking in 2022. And if you're an AP voter, what else do you have to go on, right? So you're baking in 2022. We're all about where we think the team is now. We're about where we think the team is going. So whether you won close games or lost close games last year, the model would just look at you as the same team, roughly. I know an AP voter doesn't think that way. We love the roster. We think the staff upgraded. There was a net upgrade there. And that counts. I'm not quite at the Dave Bar-2 level of, you know, properly rating and grading every coach in America. Here there in Jan is JR, I would say, but we do think there was a staff upgrade. This is a top five team and blue chip ratio. It is a top five roster in college football. I know the record was bad last year. It's all the more reason to me to expect a little bounce back. Number two, defense projected by S&P plus in the country this year. We think A&M is underrated. Number 14, how about that? Again, you want story of the year potential. There it is right in front of your face in college station. I'm staying in the SEC West. And this is where it's time to crack the knuckles a little bit. Mississippi State's the most underrated team on this list for us. The AP had Mississippi State ranked 40th preseason. We've got them top 25 at number 25 actually. So the JP poll, our internal model has Mississippi State as a top 25 team. This is one of those classic logo and schedule, flaw and logic conundrums. We don't have an acronym for that right now, but we should. So the logo Mississippi State automatically has a connotation. People are not apt to believe in it blindly. The schedule is something that never should enter the equation when you're ranking a team. And that goes a little something like this. Where should I rank Mississippi State? Well, let's look at their schedule. I think they'll go seven in five. That's irrelevant, totally irrelevant. Whether they play a Connecticut high school schedule or they play in the NFC West, they are the team they are. So in power ratings land, we couldn't care less who they play because it's a variable that shouldn't be baked into the quality of team they are. Imagine this though. When you want to know to me how flawed the doubt is around Mississippi State, I want you to imagine a more established ACC or Big 10 West brand that returns a 10,000 yard career passer, 20 of 22 starters being seniors. They got grown men everywhere. Nine wins last year, their losses among those four were to LSU, Georgia. That's literally your SEC title game, Alabama, which won the sugar bowl in Kentucky. I think if that team's in the Big 10 West, I think if that's an ACC team during the preseason top 15, they're not there because it's Mississippi State and I would also be remiss if I didn't mention the coaching situation, a very abnormal coaching situation. So I think that's being baked in the wrong way. I think that's the top 25 team. And by eye, I mean me and the model. And lastly, why not go to Lubbock, Texas? And I'm going there because Texas Tech is one of the most underrated teams we have in college football this year. Now the discrepancies not as big. So the AP has Texas Tech at 26. What a disgrace. The Red Raiders not even in the top 25. Well we took care of them. We got them at 21. Models love in Texas Tech coming off the most wins since 2013. Now that doesn't necessarily matter when it's baked into this year. But I want to remind you, this is not a team that's been left for dead. They showed signs last year. I personally think we probably have Tyler Schuck rated higher as a quarterback than maybe an AP voter does in his or her mind. And I just want to remind you guys, you're free to doubt your constitutional right to doubt a quarterback. It's one of the amendments actually, according to three year letterman. And I just want to remind you guys, as you decide who to doubt and who not to doubt, Tyler Schuck is 8 and 0 in games he starts and finishes at Texas Tech. It gets no better. I guess the health could get better, but the record gets no better. There's an energy around the program. I'll also non-quantifiable, unquantifiable, maybe even in quantifiable. They're better than 26. That's what I'm telling you. There is dark horse, big 12 title contention energy around Texas Tech this year. And I know that sentence was a little bit too convoluted to put in the hype video, but I believe in Texas Tech, so you can put that in there. However, as we know, with every batch of underrated, comes a batch of overrated. So sorry Colin, I had to reach for the chapstick, very unprofessional, still a very low dew point in Nashville. That's about to change. So these are the kinds of things that I get accused of never doing, speaking negatively of people. So I do want to, I do want to warn you about say some mean things about some teams, and I just want to remind you, it's not me. Don't take it personal. When good things are said, feel free to quote me. When bad things are said, it's the model, hold on just a second, hey, Colcubally, how can I help you, sir? You still my idea yet? You don't ever give me ideas, goodbye. There were some allegations that I was going to steal an idea from Colcubally. Whether that idea has already been stolen and used in the show yet, don't ask me. I'm a very, very bad source on that. All right, so let's talk about some overrated teams. And remember, if your feelings get hurt, it wasn't me. It's the model. One of the more overrated teams, as it relates to the AP poll versus the JP poll, is North Carolina. The AP has North Carolina at 20th. The JP poll has North Carolina outside of the top 25, barely, at number 26. This is a drake may ranking to me. I think them being at number 20 is a quarterback ranking, which is fine because you're not going to hear me say anything negative about that guy. But the defense may still be a mess, guys, we're talking top 20 now. You put them in the top 20. I don't know about that. Also, Antoine Green and Josh Downs combined for over 1800 receiving yards last year. Now I am the first to tell you that just because you lose players at the college game, does not really mean much of anything. You may have replenished the coffers with better players than you lost. And they tried to do that with Devantez Walker. Well, my problem, which is really an NCAA problem, is his waiver hasn't been approved yet. So I don't even know if he's going to play. As of now, he is not on their roster. And so I don't know what to do with that. I will tell you that's not going to make a massive difference in a team rating, obviously. But they lost 15 defenders to the portal. I just, I don't know that I see the caliber of athlete defensively here. And I don't know that Drake Maik and singlehandedly carry a team to a top 20 level performance this year. So we got him at number 26. Next up, and I'm going to admit to you this surprised me a little bit, but we got Washington as one of the most overrated teams in the preseason. Now again, this surprised me, but the model knows what the model knows. So the AP has Washington all the way up at number 10. The JP poll has Washington at 23. For the record, that's a gap of about 4.75 points, which is not small immunity. I looked at what Michael Penix did last year, and it was wonderful. I look at what Washington did last year, and it was wonderful. I think what the model sees is this is not a stacked roster talent wise, and it's always going to factor that in. And also, when you perform that far above whatever your talent expectation would have you performing at, unless you've done it 10 years in a row, it's going to think that you probably were above your skis a little bit, or actually not, that's the wrong metaphor. You probably were, as Mimal would say, a little bit too big for your bridges one year. And so your results are probably going to come back more towards where they should be the next year. That's not all encompassing. It doesn't always happen that way. But they had a school record in total yards last year. Penix was on fire last year. Is it more likely that you have a team that's just about to do that out of the gate again, or is it more likely that you look at them and say, hey, they're good again this year, but just not quite at the level that we saw them last year. They're still top 25. They just, I think they need a better talent level to warrant that top 10 consideration. And also, past defense was a problem last year. Is that the kind of unit that improved? How much did they improve? They'll believe in them. Again, they're not off a cliff, but I got them much lower than the AP. What about Kansas State, man? This one also surprised me. Are we anti-purple? It's a valid question, I think, at this point. The AP has Kansas State at 16, and the JP poll has them all the way at 33. I know some folks on that staff, I think I'm going to hear from them. And this is exactly why I'm ready to throw the model under the bus. I'm not taking any blame for this, okay? Go Wildcats. That's a quote from JP here. But as for the JP poll down on Kansas State, Dues Vaughn was a really important player there. Now big time players go to the draft all the time. At a place like Kansas State where they're not permanently parked in the top 10 of recruiting, it matters more when they walk out the door. They lost their top corner. They lost a great pass rusher to the first round. I believe in Chris climate. I believe in the program. Actually, I think it's one of the most solid programs in America. However, we're talking about a top 15, 16, a top 16 caliber performance here. According to the AP, I have a hard time seeing that. And so does the JP poll. It's pretty much as simple as that guys. They lost too many high impact players. And the model doesn't think that you just readily replace those guys in Manhattan, Kansas. That's the long and short of it. And lastly, this was pretty easy to understand. The model thinks two lanes way overrated. The AP, I think Jesse, I had it written down backwards. So the AP hasn't meant 24 and we got them at 49. But this is almost like its own separate category. When you have G5 teams, they're held to a different standard. It's not fair, but no one's, it's like when I had a sister three years younger than me growing up. My sister could walk up to me and slap me in the face. If I so much is thumped her on the ear, I'm getting in trouble. She's just held to a different standard. She could get away with things that I could not get away with. This is well documented. Anyone around her household would know that, but her. And so with a G5 team, you know their talent roster does not match up with a team in the SEC. You know they would not be able to withstand an SEC schedule. You're just as an AP poll voter, you're willing to overlook all that. You're willing to hold your nose or plug your ears and close your eyes and vote them up there anyway. They're actually willing to allow them to operate based on a different standard. Past success has a lot to do with this. Record projection has a lot to do with this. You know full well. If I had them play Arkansas schedule, they're over under win total would not be nine and a half. And yet they're up there anyway. I have no problem with Tulane. I know it sounds like I do. If we're trying to power rate teams, there is no way that's a top 25 team. So in other words, what I'm saying is I think there are more than 25 teams who I could put on a field with them tomorrow and it would go the way of them and not Tulane. That's all that means. Still a good team, a very good G5 team is just what are we doing here? I guess is the question. What are we doing here? I'll tell you what we're doing here and this coming from a guy who went to a Tulane game last year on the every given Saturday tour. I'll tell you what we're doing right now. It's time to announce the 2023 tour name and it's time to announce where we're going week one. A lot of submissions. I put the call out in the spring. Give me submissions. What do you think the tour name should be? We had some really good ideas. Before I tell you what the winner was, like three of you came up with an idea that was the 23 and MIMA tour, 23 and me is that genealogy DNA quiz that they sell. And you hear me reference MIMA on the show all the time and it's the year 2023. And so some of you thought it should be called the 23 and MIMA tour, which is wonderful. It didn't win because I don't think enough people would have the slightest clue what that means, but it was wonderful. What I wanted to do this year is I wanted to hit on the finality of an era of college football. I think this will be big time storytelling material one day. Like for better or for worse, wherever you stand on the future of our sport and the current state of our sport. Think about this year and how significant it is. And then also think about how chaotic this season could be. Make no mistake. When they don't know who's going to start for them at quarterback yet in places like Tuscaloosa or Ohio State, when Clemson has a lot of questions so much so they had to fire a coordinator one year in and bring the guy from TCU in. When there are that many questions at major programs, you could be setting yourself up. For the kind of year you tell your kids about one day, kind of like we talk about 2007. So I thought, how do we mix that romanticism and finality and sort of mysticism and storytelling into a game that's played on Saturday and what we came up with is the once upon a Saturday tour. And where I'm going with the once upon a Saturday tour in week one is not even a Saturday game. The Disalt Lake City Utah for week one, that is Florida at Utah. And why are we going there? Because they're having the good sense to play a major out of conference game in a home venue instead of a neutral site. There are other good games in week one, a lot of them are at neutral sites. I've never been to Utah, never been to a game in Utah. We're going to change that. We get to go to Riceckel Stadium. We get to go watch Billy Napier and the Gators. About an eight point favorite, could be seven, could be nine by kickoff, Kyle Wittingham coming off yet another pack 12 championship out there, just ho home, another pack 12 title. This was a classic last year. I remember sitting in a public's parking garage in downtown Nashville listening to the end of the game on a radio because I had just gotten home from my week one game. And I think this one could be as well, just a just a sneaky feeling that we picked an instant classic for week one. So the once upon a Saturday tour is upon us, looking very forward to it, it would not surprise me at all. If there was merch with that insignia on it in the paid state store when it opens sometime within the next week, I'm so happy college football is almost here. And yet there is so much left to be decided. So we did the camp intel to open the show, which we do to open pretty much every show in August. We were going to talk about Alabama. I have, I have fielded so many questions about Alabama and I've gotten so much feedback, which led to much of nothing from Alabama. I thought we should do our own segment on this for a second tonight. Colin, here's a better end point for you, wild, wild times or unfolding in Tuscaloosa because they've got a championship roster down there, except they don't have the slightest clue who the quarterback is going to be. And I mean that. I mean, Nick Sabin steps to the podium the other day in a post practice press conference and says, Hey, I've been telling the quarterbacks force me to play you. He's just begging one of them, please emerge. I have recruited my tail off at every other position and we thought we had this position sewn up. Think about that, by the way, guys, these were not scrubs. Ty Simpson had offers from coast to coast, Jalen Milro did a Tyler Buckner as well when he went to Notre Dame. And yet you want to know what the most frequently texted question to me has been from some people who should know better over the past 72 hours. Josh is Dylan Lonergan going to end up starting for Alabama. No, he's not, but he's a really good player. And I know some of you saw him in that spring game and he's for the record. If you don't know who that is, that's a four star true freshman, probably, probably playing out of his mind right now because there's really not the same pressure on him that there is on those other guys. And I think folks who got access to that scrimmage and folks who have seen the spring game and folks who understand the mechanics of quarterback have looked at him and said, well, if everyone else is a question, Mark, what about this dude? Hey, if we're going to bite the bullet anyway, why don't we do it with the true freshmen? Well, I'll tell you why. Because true freshmen make catastrophic decisions and on a team that's going to probably be a pretty low margin for error outfit this year, they can't afford that. So in a world for, here's what I'm trying to tell you. In a world where the head coach there, once upon a time, wouldn't even start to a tongue of Iloa over Jalen Hertz, I highly doubt that Nick Sabin's all of a sudden rolling the dice on Dylan Lonergan. In time, that guy could be a star. I just don't think it's weak one and it's middle Tennessee state. So I want to move past that. And if I'm wrong, I'm wrong because I'm not saying he hasn't shined. In fact, quite the opposite. I think he's opened a lot of eyes in fall camp. There's a big difference in opening eyes in the first scrimmage or the spring game and Nick Sabin saying, your my guy, that I don't think's happening there. But they do have a really key scrimmage coming up Saturday. When's the last time you saw Alabama not be a quarterback centric team? Because they were with Bryce, they really were with Mac Jones. They certainly were with Tuha. They were with Jalen Hertz, especially in the latter portion, although I would argue that was a little bit different dynamic on that team. But I'm talking about like Jake Coker, circa Alabama. And before you scoff at that, that 2015 team won an national championship. And so I'm thinking to myself, since spring, I've thought to myself, might they have the kind of team that can win regardless of who starts? And if it's really that close or the competition down there's really that close, I'm thinking to myself, well, who would I go with? And you know famously, I've changed my mind on this a million times. Now I'm not on the Tyler Buckner train, haven't been since he transferred there, have never thought he was going to win the job. Jalen Milro, Ty Simpson, we're no closer really to an answer than I feel like we have been. I think if they started the season today, I think Milro would be the starter, doesn't mean much of anything. I mean, that could change, that could change drive to drive this Saturday. But what I will tell you, and I'm going to keep harping on this, is there are a lot of folks out there and just someone's going to be really right on this and really wrong. There are a lot of folks out there who doubt that this team can be a championship caliber team because they think there's this massive hole at quarterback. I certainly agree with you. If you say they don't have a star caliber quarterback, what I am also confident in, is I think they got a legit offensive line. And I keep hearing more and more things to make me more and more confident in that. Like Caden Proctor, for example, that left tackle out of Iowa is going to start for them at left tackle and is going to be a stud, a Ferguson, I think it left guard has really come on. I think they go like Nick Sabin said, about seven or eight deep with guys, they feel they can win with in the SEC and you have not said that in a long time. I think they've been pounding the ball in practice like they hadn't been able to count on doing in a long time. And I think their defensive backs are playing at the caliber and really linebackers as well that they haven't in a long time. There's also this understanding and frankly, I think this has happened in two places. I think it's happened in Bama and I think it's happened in Ohio State right now where those teams have known since opening spring camp. We don't have a CJ Stroud of Bryce Young here. But all of us were former four and five stars. So the collective makeup in this locker room is good enough to win a title. Like there's J.T. Tumulo over there Columbus. There's Dallas Turner down here. I got half a dozen former five stars just at the edge position at Alabama. Those guys I think have been aware since spring. If we're going to win a title, it's not going to be a quarterback carrying us this year. You would be amazed at what that awareness does to pull a collective extra gear out of a team. Now if you have a Bryce Young and he goes down in all the sudden, a deer in the headlights true freshmen's in at quarterback and you haven't conditioned your mind all year to be ready for that, that's one thing. That crew there has known since spring. We don't really have much of a guy that can carry a team at quarterback. But we got a squad full of guys who can collectively and I'm, it's why I'm so fascinated to watch what BAM looks like. I think they can look ugly in week one. Like I think they can look terrible and and probably be up on middle Tennessee state like 16 to six or something like that and everyone just punts on the season. And I think that they could probably play the most most physical game you've seen out of BAM in like a decade against Texas. That goes either way. I think there is the potential for even the most hardcore Alabama fans to completely give up on this team early in the year only to see them become the best team in the country. Because I think that eventually the style that they want to play with will take its toll. And I think they've got the depth to play that way. I think they got it at offensive line. I think they got it running back and I think whichever quarterback starts for them will round into giving them above average play. And that's about what I'd expect from whoever they start at quarterback. Getting more than that is wonderful. Don't count on it. Count on an assault style ground game and a quarterback that can play in a complimentary fashion to that instead of the other way around. And count on that secondary being as deep and talented as you've had it in a while. If you can get that you got a shot in every game you play. But it's going to be radically different, radically different. And I will ask a question in closing that I asked to start this show. And you imagine if Alabama would have gotten Devin Leary instead of Kentucky. Wow, they're watching us in Carter'sville, Georgia. Springfield, Missouri. Ames, Iowa. I salute you guys. I know it's tough up there right now. We're all in this together. Everyone else has sold us down the river, but we're still in this together. Let's predict a record right quick. Let's do this. Let's go to the Pacific Northwest. Let's talk about Oregon. This is coming off a year where they got blown out by Georgia and Dan Landings first game. And then the rest of the way, they lost a three point game to Washington and they lost a four point game to Oregon state. And that was it. They won the holiday bowl. They ended up going 10 and three. And there's a really, really wide range of prediction and expectation for them this year. I told you and I'll tell you again, I think it's the most underrated team in all of the top 15 and the AP poll. We've got Oregon as a top five team. The AP's got them number 15. So I think very highly of them. So naturally, when I go with best case out of the potential record scenarios for Oregon, I'm telling you if best case happens, there's an undefeated regular season in the cards for them. 12 and 0 is the best case for Oregon. There is strong disagreement in the building on this, but there's only one microphone here. And you know how much I would love to put Jesse and Colin on air if I could, but we only had budget for one mic. I'm sorry. I'm looking at Oregon and I'm asking myself anytime I want to know best case scenario. I want to know who are your toughest games. Obviously, there is no Georgia on the schedule this year. Now, they go to Texas Tech in week two. And that features two of the most underrated teams in the country for me, by the way. But if I look later in the year, because it's a backloaded schedule, if I look later in the year, they go at Washington, there are two and a half point dog or two, depending on where you look, they go to you talk one and a half point dog. They play USC at home. They're favored by two over USC. They play Oregon State at home. They're favored by seven. So if if you're not projected to be any more than a two point dog at any point this year, of course, there's a path for you to go undefeated. And as I talked to you about before in the show, I think line of scrimmage talent is being overlooked for them right now. Lowline specifically, because that's a perceived weakness by folks who saw them lose a lot. I don't think it's going to be as big a weakness. And I also think they're stacking defensive front talent that allows them to be a lot more multiple than they were last year. And I love Bonix. So you know, I, for example, look at the Heisman poster they put all over New York City, and I say, good for them. I think we got an open wall in here if you guys want to explore that and experiment with that. But what about the worst case? Okay, we, we, we pumped them up a little bit there. Let's deflate the tires now. The worst case for Oregon would be seven and five. Admittedly, I got a lot of faith in what landings going to do in year two. But there is also the risk that it just doesn't fire, doesn't click. And you're left with, with yourself asking the question, was year one the aberration? Is this really what we got? Why did we extend this guy? Who else was coming after him? You know that whole song and dance. What if they can't replicate or replace that skill and starting experience in the offensive line? That's always a potential injury could pop up. That's everyone's worst case. You could just get bad Bonix. Hey, what if, what if losing Kenny Dillingham as your offensive coordinator down to Arizona state as the new head coach there? What if that has a much bigger impact? Maybe then someone like me expects. And hey, while we're at it, maybe the rest of the pack 12 was just better. Then everyone thought they were going to be that all could be baked into having a seven and five record for Oregon. But what's the most likely record? I toyed with 11 and one here. They're over under nine and a half. I actually toyed with 11 and one. I went with 10 and two as the most likely. There is a strong lean as a result of that towards me picking them to win the pack 12. I just, I love the personnel they have defensively. Like it is not a finished product over there. I like the personnel they have. I've told you guys in spring and a league that is really stacked at quarterback, getting after the quarterback is going to be the key to winning the pack 12. And I think that Oregon's going to be able to do it. And so I think 10 and two is the most likely path here. That's an over if you're keeping track on the Vegas board. And you know, that's flirting with playoff contention. That may very well be good enough to win the pack 12. Oregon really high on them this year. Really high on them. They start with Portland State before they go to Texas Tech in week two. Let's round out this show as any well-rounded show would end with bold predictions. And let me make sure and ask you guys because we got a really, really sizable audience in here. Click the thumbs up button. Subscribe to the channel. Subscribe because we want 200k and then click the like button. That's it. I'm not going to ask you to donate $5 or anything like that. I would return it if you sent it to us. But we will take likes and subscribes. That's what we want. Bold predictions chapter 32. The things that you think will happen so much so that you may bet your own money on it. We've got a we've got a very, very bold segment tonight actually. There is no bold prediction tonight below a nine on the one to 10 scale. The first one comes to us from Amarillo, Texas. That's where Rhett says the big 12 will lose every out of conference game in the power five in week two. It's a loaded week two. The big 12 is getting after it in week two. Texas is at Bama. Texas Tech plays Oregon at home. Oklahoma States at Arizona State. Kansas plays Illinois. Iowa State plays Iowa. Since he goes to pit, Baylor plays Utah. Big 12 is probably favored in two, maybe three of these games. This is a 9.75 on the boldness scale. You're trying to do a six. You're trying to do a seven way money line parlay. Parlay is one of the many tools of the devil. Don't do it kids or adults. But if you're trying to do it, this one's great. Not in a 9.75. I don't know what more to say. It's just tough to do. Just think about, think about if you go one for seven, but the one is Texas winning at Alabama. Like that would make up for and whitewash the entire rest of the losing weekend for the big 12. Next up, we got to go down to the Bayou for a second. Aaron from Jacksonville, Florida, well, the prediction has to do with LSU at least. Aaron from Jacksonville said, Malik neighbors leads power five and receiving yards. This is a good player now, but you got to be really good to do this. So last year, Malik neighbors LSU, he had 72 catches just over 1000 yards, three touchdowns, which sounds like a flawed stat line, but he only had three touchdowns. The leader in college football trivia question to end all trivia questions here. Who led power five in total receiving yards last year? And if you said Charlie Jones of Purdue, you don't win anything, but pride, but wow, you earned my respect. There were eight, there were at least eight. We couldn't dig the whole way because we were pressed for time today. We found at least eight guys who had more receiving yards last year than Malik neighbors. So we have to have a dynamite season. They play eight of the top 40 defenses in college football preseason this year. So he's going to have to do it against really quality competition. JT, or Jaden Daniels, not JT. Who deep in the show, guys, Jaden Daniels, starting quarterback down there at LSU. He had 10 times last year where he had under 250 passing yards. So things just have to get better. And he was already good last year. But neighbors is already good, but he's got to get better. So that's a nine for me. A Malik neighbors leading all of power five in total receiving yards. That's a nine, maybe a 9.25 even next up. Let's go to let's go to an upset in week five. This would be a really big upset, actually. One of the biggest upsets of the season, Harris is from Enid, Oklahoma. And he said Nebraska is going to upset Michigan in week five. We have a point spread on this game. Nebraska is an 18 point home dog to Michigan. This will be the first road game for Michigan this year. Nebraska will have already played at Minnesota and at Colorado. So if you believe in being battle tested, I guess they have that edge. Nebraska is too thin to do this. I think they're too thin to do this. And so I'm putting a 9.5 on it. I think this line will creep up more towards three touchdowns when more people actually bet it. So, but, but if it were to happen, Jeff Sims coming out party at quarterback, certainly Matt Rool gets the Gatorade bath there. And man, it's off to the races at Nebraska. And lastly, and you want to know about, you want to know about a shock. You want shocking in the words of Vince McMahon tonight. You'll get shocking. How about Joe's prediction from Rocky Mountain, North Carolina? Joe just put it out there. He said, Duke will make the ACC title game. Well, Joe, this is a 9.5 on the boldness scale, but I love you. I love you, Joe, for predicting this. Unfortunately, I think their best shot was last year. Because last year, we still had a divisional format. Last year, they did not play six of the top seven preseason teams in the ACC. And the thing about it is, Duke's good. This is a good team. They could have the upset of week one if they were to knock off Clemson. And the only reason I haven't been talking about that game more is because I hit on it like five shows in a row back in July. And you guys told me to knock it off like we get it. They could win. So, but Duke would win that game. So you're over and you win total six and a half. They've got the eighth best odds in the ACC. So they would need to massively over achieve. This is a 9.5. The reason it's not higher is because I know about Mike Elko. I know about Riley Leonard. I know those guys could pull something crazy off, but that would be really crazy. Can you imagine being a Duke fan, being a Duke alum and buying ACC tournament tickets? And then also just using some of that leftover to buy ACC championship tickets in football. Yeah, play it in your backyard up there at least not too far from it. Guys, thank you so much for watching. It has been a privilege to be able to do this show for several years for you now since 2020. But, man, we're kind of hitting on a cylinder that the show hasn't hit on and we're getting a lot of yeses around here that we didn't use to get, get a lot of requests that we didn't use to get. And it's all because of you. I mean, I'm still wearing the same white tee shirt I'm always wearing. So I appreciate you guys for direct calling for producer Jesse. I'm Josh Bate. Make sure you subscribe. Take care. Have a great day. God bless.