Texas Hype + Mario Concerns + Latest Camp Intel | Late Kick Live Ep. 416
Music
Signs, great movie by M. Night Shyamalan. Signs also something that I think more and more frequently
are starting to pop up around us. Do you just get the feeling sometimes some really weird
stuff is going to happen in a college football season? If your answer is yes, you feel a lot
like I do. We're jam packed, high top a fall like a suddenly very autumn like downtown
Nashville, Tennessee. Wasn't the case 24 hours ago kids, but it is now it is Tuesday,
August 15th, the year of our Lord, 2023. So we got camp intel and you know that because
if it's late kicking its August, we're talking about what's happening on actual football
fields coast to coast. Texas hype is back, but not back on this show. I say that because
we really didn't buy in last year. The model did this wretched computer. I'm holding
in my hand, but we didn't. And so we're going to answer a question from one of our dearest
out there tonight about that. Another one of you wanted to know about Mario Cristobal
and whether he's just totally fraudulent down at Miami, we will answer. Paid state
all American team defensive edition is released tonight. We've got predictions like if you
just if you want to be surprised by what Oklahoma does this year, don't watch the show tonight.
I'm going to spoil the ending for you. I'm going to give you what ifs. We got some bold
predictions and we got a lot. We got to let in between. We're giving away two
chalice tonight. We're going plural on chalice. We're giving away a couple of chalice tonight.
I couldn't even decide which one of you to award a chalice to. So they're watching us
in enterprise Alabama. They're watching us in Washington, DC. Dexter Michigan is tuned in.
Saratoga Springs, Utah is tuned in. This my vow to you. I decided it like 15 minutes ago.
I am revealing the name of the tour for 2023 this Thursday. We had the Renaissance tour.
We had the every given Saturday tour. You're going to know what this falls tour name is this
Thursday and within a week. The late kick store is going to open up again.
So we're not going to use this as a massive promotional tool. I just let you know
when it's opening you guys do whatever you want to with it. I will tell you this though.
If you're not following on Instagram, you're missing some sneak peeks at Lake Kick Josh
and the story there as we speak. So I beg you to subscribe to the channel.
But frankly, you guys are doing a great job on that. So just keep up doing what you're doing.
Let's dive into fall camp intel. Now let's go ahead and
ceremonially pop the paper before we even get into this.
Camp Nuggets and Intel is what this show lives, eats, sleeps and breeds on this time of year.
And at Texas A&M, we talked to you a couple of weeks ago about how I thought the tight end room there.
Was one of the more underrated in the country. Well, sophomore tight end Donovan green
has a torn ACL that happened in the scrimmage the other day.
So he's probably out for the year six four two thirty five.
He was the number five overall tight end in the 2022 cycle.
Okay, so that's not catastrophic, but it's it's also not great.
Obviously, Jim Bofischer after this happened, he tried to ease concerns and say I still like that room.
He's not lying to you. He still does like that room. They got max right there more of the blocker.
Jake Johnson was the number one tight end in the 2022 class.
That's a guy who really gets bumped up the depth chart a little bit.
And he was already going to be on the field. They'll lean on him a lot more.
And so if you're trying to look for early guys that are probably under the radar as pivot points in
offenses, not that they hurt for wide out talent there, but Jake Johnson's going to be an important player.
I think for them for the record, you haven't heard me say quarterback competition, quarterback controversy,
etc. with Texas and him a single time this fall or summer as it were.
That's because Connor Wigman's taking all the first team reps out there.
That's not a surprise. Let's go to USC.
So remember back in spring, USC couldn't even practice like they wanted to.
Why? Because they didn't have defensive depth and they certainly didn't have it last year.
So do they have it this year? Well, it's not going to shock you to learn that folks
close to the program keep telling us, Hey guys, I'm not kidding you.
The defense looks a lot better. That's true. Technically.
It's also true that it was horrendous last year.
So there was nowhere to go, but up.
But I don't want to knock what they're doing out there.
So they did make some big moves in the portal.
And I don't doubt that they'll probably be significant to quantum leaps improved statistically this year
from the what 94th ranked points per game defense and FBS last year.
Okay, but I want to know hoops.
Not just what hoops is going to stand out this year.
They got a linebacker.
Ticket Curtis. It's a true freshman.
Number 12 in the 2023 cycle at linebacker.
62225. When I talked folks at USC boom.
That's the name. Ticket Curtis Josh.
You got to watch out for Ticket Curtis. Well, guess what I'm going to do kids.
I'm going to watch out for Ticket Curtis.
And as you know, or I guess you should know by now.
If you've studied those helmet grids, USC schedule is kind of backloaded.
So the Trojans are high profile team.
I don't think that you'll be talking about them week to week early in the year.
But remember, there does come a time later in the year where they got every one of them.
Or virtually every one of those other more highly ranked odds teams out there in the pack 12.
And they got to play every single one of them.
And it's depth that you got to be focused on.
Okay. It's preview magazine season.
All of us get enamored with those those first 22 names.
And then what happens by week six?
You got red sharpie all over the place.
Because folks are either banged up or outright just out for the year.
Well, Ticket Curtis is just a name to keep an eye on there.
I need more than him. I need depth.
It's just a name that keeps surfacing.
Also, they're not hurting for wide receiver talent.
But we keep on hearing about Zachariah Branch.
That's a true freshman five star receiver.
Just keep an eye on him.
Brennan Rice is out there.
Singer. They got from Arizona.
Moriel Williams.
Yes, he's still there.
Loaded room.
Doesn't mean an elite true freshman couldn't step up at LSU.
Not so great news, really.
So you know they are doing this thing down there where they're just trying to portal in a secondary essentially.
We talked about that a million times on the show.
Here comes a million and one.
But not in a good way.
So Denver Harris has been a problem of sorts for them lately.
It's not something I've spoken about on the show.
But now everyone down there is talking about it.
So I will too.
Denver Harris has had pretty pissed poor attitudes since he's been at LSU.
That's not news to anyone who knew about Denver Harris at Texas A&M.
Because that's where he was last year.
So Denver Harris has not been a practice the last couple of days.
Denver Harris reportedly was pretty instrumental in one fight that happened the other day at practice.
Almost another one that happened afterwards.
Denver Harris also not to be found anywhere in the team photo.
I don't know what's going to happen with him.
I think LSU has other players they're far more concerned about at this point than Denver Harris.
Zy Alexander, Duce Chestnut, those two dudes look good.
So they got them out of the portal as well.
I would at this point be a little surprised if Denver Harris is playing a major role in the LSU secondary this year.
However, I got two stocks that are way up down there.
This is not a surprise to an LSU fan.
But if you're a Tennessee fan and you just want to know what's happening at LSU Malik neighbors.
Big time talent last year.
Stock just continues to soar down in Baton Rouge.
There's none to be found anywhere.
If you do see some Malik neighbors stock, snatch it up and Mason Smith.
I remember it like it was a year ago because it was.
They opened against Florida State.
Mason Smith, former five star guy on the defensive line.
Everything about the expectation of how good the LSU defensive front could be
is revolving around this six six three hundred and fifteen pound guy in the middle and then boom.
He tears ligaments in his knee.
He's out for the year.
And I had a little sinking feeling for my LSU brother and in my heart.
And then they just went and won the SEC West anyway.
Well, this year they have him back.
And the question is always first off, is he back and then secondly,
does he have that explosiveness, that twitch, etc.
Sounds that way.
There's also dudes like Harold Perkins already down there who didn't get hurt last year.
So LSU is going to be really forming to pull up front.
What about Florida State?
Florida State, the blue chip ratio not as kind to Florida State as it is to the other elite contenders out there.
Right?
The blue chip ratio is just the overall ratio of former four and five star guys on your roster compared to guys who weren't former four or five stars.
History says nobody below 50% in the blue chip ratio has ever won a national championship.
Florida State's in the low to mid 40s.
What do we talk about all the time on this show just because it hasn't happened, doesn't mean it can happen.
Things happen for the first time all the time.
And so Florida State is trying to be the first of the batch of maybe future teams that are able to break through that threshold.
Well, if they're going to do it, we all know they have to do it with transfer talent.
Here's where the good news pops in.
Sounds like they hit on all of these transfers.
So first off, they signed the number six transfer portal class.
They signed eight four star kids in that class.
Just some names we keep hearing about over at Noles 24 seven.
They're doing a great job of chronicling and documenting all this.
They got a couple of tight ends there.
Jaheem Bell, for example, Kyle Moorlock is another those two guys came in and it's really interesting.
All the sudden the versatility that gives you the two tight ends sets the different multiplicity offensively.
It's just a word I wanted to fit into the show tonight.
Someone bent me five bucks on it.
It's a plusity people at the tight end position.
Looks like Mike Norville, at least on paper, has a lot of weapons at his disposal.
It doesn't stop there.
Braden Fisk, the defensive lineman, looks good.
Keon Coleman, remember the wide receiver out of Michigan State?
You know, when there was all that, all that dust, all that smoke, I guess, is a better word around Michigan State.
Is Peyton Thorn the quarterback going to leave?
Is Keon Coleman going to leave?
Yes.
One of them went to Auburn.
We'll talk about him in a little while.
And the other one, the wide receiver, Keon Coleman, is down at Florida State.
And I don't think it should surprise anyone who's watched him play.
He's shining early in fall camp and looks to be an integral part of their offense and their passing attack.
Fentral Cypress at corner.
I didn't even mention him from Virginia.
He's looked really good.
So I cannot speak highly enough of how good they're talking about their transfers down there, which is a good thing.
Because they have to have them come through.
If they're going to hit that over at nine and a half wins, heavily juiced to the over.
Didn't realize that.
So a lot of folks loving them.
Some Florida State right now.
Do you love Ohio State?
Where are you tonight?
Where is the Ohio State quarterback battle?
Is the sun sets here on August 15th?
Well, Ryan Day, and I quote, says,
it's hard to name someone when there isn't a significant gap.
Zoix.
And he also says heading into week one without a starter is not ideal.
Now that's an evergreen statement.
But the first part is Ryan Day.
I don't think BSing you.
I just think there hasn't been a ton of separation.
I have some disagreement there.
I got a couple of different Buckeye group texts that I talk to my buddies in.
And I'm obviously the outsider.
And they follow every one of the four dozen websites that follow Ohio State day to day up there.
So, you know, they claim to know more than me.
However, when I listen to Ryan Day talk like that.
When I listen to Kirby Smart down at Georgia,
talk about some of the depth issues they're dealing with.
There's always this contingent of folks who think,
wink, wink, nod, nod.
No, he's just saying that.
And especially in the portal age,
sometimes it is a valid retort to say,
oh, he's just, he's just trying to present the idea there's a quarterback battle
to keep both of them on campus because one of them could hop in the portal any second.
One of them could lose interest if he knows he's been bypassed.
I'm not telling you that doesn't happen.
I'm just not sure there is a slam dunk QB1 here in Ryan Day's lying to me.
I'm not sure that's the case.
And I also don't think it's a death knell of any sorts for Ohio State.
I mean, they're early in fall camp still.
Like USC's already had their second scrimmage because they have a week zero game.
Ohio State's not that far in yet.
But that's going to sort itself out.
I have been of the opinion and continue to be with Ohio State
that they can have pretty good quarterback play this year
and win every game on their schedule.
Can, not will, can.
And the reason is because there's this collective galvanization
I think that happens sometimes.
When you know you don't have a prolific quarterback,
when you don't have a CJ Stroud or a Bryce Young coming into the season,
you know you got a guy that at best is going to be serviceable.
Pretty good.
Won't lose us games.
But it's not going to take over a game and win it.
You know what that does to an offensive line in a running back room
and a defensive back room?
You know what that does to a defensive front that knows maybe we got to take over games.
Maybe we got to Iowa our way to a win or two here and there.
I think it pulls a little more out of them than otherwise would be pulled out of them.
That's my opinion.
We'll see if that's Ohio State this year.
There is some other news though.
You remember post spring.
It's looked like a really good team that was really suspect at offensive tackle.
Well, they went out to San Diego State and got Josh Simmons.
And they opened fall camp and I came on air and said,
two things you need to know.
First off, this dude's running with the threes.
And secondly, he won't be one in with the threes for very long.
I didn't have the speech impediment when I said it then.
I do now.
But Josh Simmons, voila, running with the ones at left tackle.
He bumped the kid that was there to right tackle.
And so that's important for obvious reasons cause the left tackle position is premium
in the sport of football.
But think about your biggest competition up there.
Think about Penn State and Michigan and the edge rush talent that both of those teams
are going to employ against you.
You can't be average at left tackle.
You can be elite in a bunch of other places.
If you've got a liability at left tackle, then you're 10 and two this year.
Maybe worse.
And so you can need to look at that one of two ways.
You can say our hopes and dreams rest on a San Diego state transfer.
Or you can say, I don't think we would have taken them if it wasn't quality.
I would lean more towards the latter than the former.
At Auburn, I sat here the other night.
And I said, uh oh, doesn't sound great.
The quarterback situation does not sound promising.
The returns don't sound sterling coming out of this Saturday's scrimmage.
I think everyone down there wants Peyton Thorn to win the job.
When I say everyone, I mean the coaching staff and really the head coach.
And I just didn't hear that he had had a great day.
Well, I got some feedback, some good old fashioned feedback.
And the feedback was this.
Most people close to the program still expect Peyton Thorn to win the job.
It's also a good thing they don't play this week.
So those were a little too bullet points that I got sent to me.
I think that's probably where I tend to fall too.
I think eventually Peyton Thorn will be the guy who emerges.
He just hasn't emerged yet.
That's why God made four weeks of fall camp instead of one and a half or two.
Somewhere in Genesis.
But it's there.
And so that's what's happening around college football.
Again, we got a big week of scrimmages coming up Saturday,
coast to coast.
They'll be scrimmaging.
And that's when a whole lot of separation is going to happen.
That's when quarterback rooms.
That's when position battles get whittled down.
You're not going past two weeks in fall camp and splitting reps three ways
at some of these positions.
And very rarely are you even splitting them two ways.
Speaking of the name Peyton.
Just spelled a different way.
I got to tell you something.
I told you we were going to give away one chalice of supremacy per show in August.
And I lied to you because tonight we're giving away two.
We're giving away chalice of supremacy.
It's what we're doing.
So Colin, let's go with Peyton first.
So our guy Peyton is a teacher.
That's as specific as I can get for certain reasons that are legal in nature.
But he sent along this note.
He said, I wanted to share a moment from class today.
When I showed your Tennessee prediction video and late kick to the students.
I'm currently an intern teaching while getting my master's degree at Tennessee.
And I like to start most of my classes with something football and UT related.
Today I had both classes give me their predictions for the season.
The best part about it is the school's mascot is the tornadoes.
Sadly, I can't get a picture with the kids due to personal privacy concerns.
But I wanted you to know the word is being spread.
Peyton, a chalice of supremacy is coming your way.
Thank you so much.
But it wasn't done.
Colin also has exclusive evidence of another one of you who is doing probably the most genius bit of gorilla marketing for us.
And that is taking a very, very cute young child who is still an astrologer.
Strapping late kick advertising to that child.
It's from Lawton Oklahoma.
This was Trevor.
He said, we're going to have the entire town subscribed.
By the time we are done, we aren't above using a baby to get to 200,000 subscribers.
That's literally all it takes.
You could offer $500 for one of these chalice of supremacy.
You don't get it.
But if you strap a cardboard promotional sign to your kids buggy and push him around Lawton Oklahoma.
You absolutely do.
So Trevor got one coming your way.
And we got to move on here because we got a lot of show left.
But don't think I didn't see the dude who went in Best Buy and put all the laptops on our show.
I saw that and we will address it Thursday.
So thank you in advance to whoever you were.
I told you it was a little fall like in Nashville today.
How fall was it?
Well, it was so fall like today.
The due points have dropped so precipitously that I'm going to take a chapstick and turn the label
because this company does not sponsor us yet.
And I'm just going to put some moisturizer on the lips.
Because that's what they teach you to do on live internet and broadcasting school.
What if time?
Chapter 24 of what ifs?
This is where we just recklessly and sometimes irresponsibly go wherever our mind wants us to go.
Because it's August and everyone's undefeated.
First up, we're going to Clemson, South Carolina.
Aiden asked, what if Garrett Riley turns Clemson's offense into a top 10 unit?
Well, what if he does?
It hasn't been great up there the last two years.
2021, they were 78th in points per game.
Last year, they bumped all the way up to 30th, still not top 10.
So Garrett Riley comes in from TCU.
Well, what has he done lately?
Really good stuff.
Last year, you may have seen them.
They played in things like the national championship game.
And last year, TCU was ninth in the country in points per game offensively.
So number one, if this happens, if Clemson really does vault all the way inside the top 10 of scoring offense,
it was a tremendous hire.
I think we all understand that more on Garrett Riley in a second.
Number two, if this happens, it probably means they win the ACC.
Because I mean, they'll be pretty good defensively.
So if Clemson's top 10 or top 15, both sides of the ball, Jesse, here's a good project for stats and info.
And there, when's the last time someone finished top 15, both sides of the ball and didn't win the ACC?
Better stat.
When's the last time someone exhibited more than a faint pulse and didn't win the ACC?
So if they're at that level, both sides of the ball, yeah, I think they won the ACC.
Here's the third problem, very first world problem.
Does someone snatch Garrett Riley up as a head coach?
If they're that good this year, that quickly, does someone just make it a one and done situation for Clemson?
That's the kind of thing you want to worry about.
But that's where I think that would go if that would have panned out.
Next up, I don't like where this is about to go.
I'm going to take a sip from the chalice, Colin, you can do your worst.
Yeah, so Cade hit us up and said, what if I was state as a dumpster fire this year?
I'd be interested about Matt Campbell.
I have notes for everything we do tonight except one.
I just put a great big X with a circle under this topic.
I have no interest in talking about it.
A lot of you have taken liberties with me knowing my allegiance to a program whose color scheme mirrors that of Hulk Hogan
and whose mascot is a tornado knowing full well my second passion in life is storm chasing.
And so it has brought a lot of you great joy to sort of drop the figurative elbow on me.
Because Iowa State may be caught up in a little bit of an illegal gambling scandal.
Whomst amongst us hasn't been there, right?
Well, if they fall off a cliff this year, what will I do?
I'll ignore it completely. That's what I'll do.
But also, let me remind you of something with Matt Campbell.
Matt Campbell had a chance to get out of there and he didn't.
Matt Campbell, I think probably prioritizes things a little bit differently than most people.
Producer Jesse asked me earlier today, why don't you think he left?
I said, I think he likes it there.
And when I tell people that there's this pregnant pause because they think I'm not done talking when I say that.
I'm done. I think he likes it there.
Like, not everyone wants to live on a coast.
It's nice, but not everyone wants that lifestyle.
Matt Campbell just kind of likes it up there.
And he's one of us, you know? It's one of us.
So my question will be, if they go four and eight this year, it's a distinct possibility.
They could be I could have a disaster of a season or they could shock the world.
I'm hoping for that.
But if it doesn't happen, if it doesn't pan out and they got Texas and at Kansas state in the year, by the way,
if that is with their head barely above water and then they miss out on bowl eligibility,
is anyone going to really suggest that guy forgot how to coach?
Or it's just I was state.
And remember, I was state, what did you tell me Jesse?
He's like a couple of games above 500 or something like that and is one of the best they've ever had.
53% winning percentage. It's the second best in the history of the program.
It's I was state, the expectation level should not be where it is.
It's where it is because of him.
So that's what that X with a circle around it means.
Don't tread on Matt Campbell and I next up.
This has never happened before, but yet we get it all the time.
Chad said, what if a two lost team makes the college football playoff?
History. That's what, Chad.
History happens right as the curtain falls on the beloved 14 playoff era,
beloved for some of us.
But number two, aside from history, it probably means we got chaos, right?
If we get something we've never had before, we have to have something that rarely happens and that would be chaos.
I mean, who's the two lost team, by the way?
So here's a fun exercise.
You're driving around in your Toyota Tacoma down there in Woodstock, Georgia today.
Who's the, who's the two lost team?
What conference did they come from?
Because we were trying to break our brains earlier today and figure out if this is possible in any conference other than the SEC.
Now, obviously this has a lot to do with how the rest of the landscape pans out.
But in the big 10, if you just think it through,
we think the teams that are capable of doing this in the big 10 are all in the same division over there.
And so they, they kind of play whack-a-mole, our favorite college football divisional game,
which will be no more after this year.
And also you don't know about the strength of schedule, but in the SEC, a team like Alabama or a team like LSU.
I mean, let's say, say like LSU loses to Florida State in week one and loses at BAMMA.
But BAMMA loses two conference games.
So LSU goes to Atlanta, beach, Georgia.
They are 11 and two SEC champs.
What happens there?
It would be fitting that that's the only two lost national champ we've ever had.
LSU back in 20, 2007, and God bless 2007, by the way.
Maybe it'll be LSU. I don't know.
I think it's unlikely, but who can do it?
I think the SEC would be the conference that has to come from.
Now, you know me. I think it could be a car wreck out there figuratively speaking in the pack 12,
and we could have a bunch of good teams with two losses.
I don't think the committee would see it that way.
Lastly, this would both warm my heart and crush me.
Jorge, or as they would call him where I'm from, Georgie, said, what if Texas Tech wins the big 12?
Well, here's what would happen.
First things first, it would be wonderful for the program.
Go red raiders, and tick or tape parade, and all that.
Be a great story.
However, if Texas Tech wins the big 12,
it would be a little bittersweet for some of us,
because the Joey McGuire secret would be out.
And you'd watch a lot of the casual national media who don't know a thing about
and probably couldn't even spell his last name correctly,
all of a sudden act like they've discovered Joey McGuire.
It's no different than when you watch the NFL draft.
And some draft expert who you know started watching college prospects,
you've watched for years, about three months before the draft,
all of a sudden starts acting like they discovered some edge rusher out of Alabama,
some defensive back out of Ohio state.
And you're like, I was watching this kid as a sophomore in high school in Mansfield, Ohio.
What are you talking about under the radar?
You've got him mocked late first round.
He's not under anyone's radar.
He was three times all big 10.
That's what it'll be like with Joey McGuire.
And a bunch of people will run national stories on, did you know this?
Did you know that about Joey McGuire?
Yeah.
Yeah, we've known it.
Actually, where have you been, by the way?
It says college football writer in your bio.
Why are you acting like you just discovered this guy?
So I am preemptively preparing myself for when Joey McGuire and Texas Tech
eventually do pull this off.
It's like back in, you know what,
let me use a reference to the rest of the country will understand.
We had smitties, boil peanuts in Columbus, Georgia when I was growing up.
Right there at the railroad crossing on double churches road.
And the thing about smitty was he didn't have to market at all.
He's like waffle house.
He had his zero dollars, zero cents marketing budget.
Word of mouth around Columbus is how smitty move boil peanuts.
And then word about smitties got out.
And it got out to the Green Island Hills folks.
And so they started, they probably sent a proxy over.
It calls folks from Green Island Hills can't be seen buying boil peanuts.
But they sent them over.
And then all the sudden, smitties blows up.
And he has like franchises all over town.
And it was still great.
But you didn't get the authentic smitties experience.
He had his own customized truck that I think was a relic from the World War II era.
Oh, it was great.
I doubt he ever washed the pot.
It was wonderful.
So the best seasoning, by the way,
comes from the unwashed pot of boil peanuts.
Well, Joey McGuire smitties is what I'm trying to tell you.
Again, I use references that are understood from Seattle to Miami,
LA to New York and everywhere in between.
Hey, side note.
If they do win the big 12, do they go to the playoff?
Are your children ready to live in a world where Texas Tech is in the college football playoff?
I said it that way because I know that will end up in a hype video out there.
Or I hope it does because I can promise you were the only ones that are ever going to say that.
Even if I say it ingest.
If they make the playoff, you will never hear me admit that I was joking about that.
I'm not joking about this either.
Academy Sports and Outdoors is a gift from the heavens.
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You got a lot still to get to.
I got folks hating on Texas.
I got folks thinking Mario Cristobal's in over his head.
I got what ifs.
I already got what ifs.
I got bull predictions.
So we got a lot still to get to.
Somehow we'll get through it in like 30 minutes though.
So our buddy.
Our buddy, Big Game Boomer, hit us up from Roswell, Georgia.
He said, why is everyone falling for the Texas hype?
Again, it's ridiculous.
And as you can clearly tell, Big Game Boomer has no bias
in the Texas fear.
Texas is just any other program to Big Game Boomer.
Who's fallen for the Texas hype?
I have not given my predictions yet, Jesse.
Right?
I have not given my Big 12 predictions yet.
I think it's pretty obvious when I make Quinn Ewers,
a second team paid state all American.
And I make Xavier Worthy, my dark horse
for the Heisman.
It's pretty obvious I'm high on them.
How high on them am I though?
TBD?
Texas can't be back though, right?
That's what I keep getting told.
Yeah, they can be back.
They can be.
They just haven't been.
Haven't.
And can't.
What are we talked about?
I know you're getting tired of me saying that.
So I hate to do it.
But sometimes you guys make me do it.
And so I got to use the Dante's Peak approach here.
Pierce Brosnan and Linda Hamilton taught me everything I need to know about Texas.
Okay, a lot of you have watched them be dormant for years.
Just like they watched that volcano.
And you're saying Texas can't be back in those towns, people, innocent though they may have been
or sitting there telling Pierce Brosnan, this mountain can't harm us.
And Pierce Brosnan's like, no, the town water supply has gone to crap.
People are boiling the death in this lake.
The animals are acting weird.
All the signs are there.
This mountain's gonna erupt.
No, you're just a geologist.
I've lived here all my life.
They're gone.
And a lot of you are down in Texas right now.
And I just want to warn you, the signs are there.
I know it's been dormant out there, but that is a very, very active volcano, metaphorically speaking, of course.
And when it goes boom, it's gonna go boom.
I've explained to you what it will be like for you who may be 17 years old and you've never experienced Texas being back.
I've told you what it's gonna be like.
I hope I prepared you at least to that degree.
But they were five and seven sarks first year.
They're eight and five a second year.
Here's why I believe in them.
You can choose to believe whatever you want to.
You can either be the frog and the pot of slowly warming up water that boils to death.
Or you can listen to geologist JP here.
I'm trying to help you.
They have recruited top five classes back to back cycles.
They have done what they hadn't done before.
Okay, the more casual minded out there are gonna tell you who cares if they've recruited top five.
They always had talent.
We've addressed that.
We have beaten that to death like a piƱata on this show.
They had the ornaments.
They didn't have the tree.
We're sticking with that metaphor because it works.
It's focused group pretty well.
Yeah, so we're gonna keep that.
They didn't have the line of scrimmage talent.
They needed.
It's a lie.
It wasn't being developed.
A lot of it wasn't even recruited.
It's a lie.
They have not recruited like they have the past two cycles in a long time.
They have not developed.
They have not acquired the line of scrimmage talent.
For obvious reasons, they haven't brought in guys like A.D. Mitchell via the portal or Isaiah Nayar via the portal.
They're doing that now.
This is a legitimately loaded roster.
And it's only gonna get loadeder.
Write that down.
It's only gonna get more and more loaded.
N.I.L.
They're clicking on every single cylinder imaginable out there, which you knew they would do.
And so there are things there that they haven't had.
There are pieces in place that haven't been in place.
And by the way, I want you guys to go back in time.
And I want you to find me how many times I've predicted Texas to go to the playoff or whatever it is you're counting as being back.
I hadn't done it a single time.
So whenever folks come at me and say, oh, we do this all the time.
No, we don't.
They may.
I can't control what they do.
But I'm telling you, I may very well pick that team to go to the playoff this year.
If I do, it'll be the first time.
And I may because there are signs that I hadn't seen around Texas in a long time that are there.
Wide receivers, the best Sarks have, at least in this time at Texas.
Offensive line, defensive line.
I've got what I need there.
Running back, even losing guys, like Rocheon and Bijon.
Plenty good enough.
Secondary.
You're not having to convert wide receivers there anymore.
They portled Catalon in and they've got good players back there elsewhere.
They're better.
They're good enough to do it this year.
So that's why I have participated in the Texas hype.
Now last year, you know, I was hating on the computer earlier today.
Last year, famously, the model thought that Texas could beat the chargers.
Like the model thought if you put Texas in the NFC South, that'd be a legit 10 and 6, 9 and 7 caliber contender.
The model was a little drunk on Texas last year.
I don't even know what the model says about Texas this year, but I'm telling you, if it says the same thing again,
I may go from chastising the model to high-fiving the model as much as you can high-five a laptop.
Texas hype is kind of real this year.
I don't even know if it's hype, it just is.
And if you want one more sign, I've never had Sark on the show.
We had him on last week.
And I think that tells you a lot about how I feel about Texas.
Because we have not really wasted our time bringing subpar coaches on the show recently, have we?
Or coaches that are leading subpar teams.
Next up, I'm speaking now as if we control the future of the sport.
And people who are already calling us a condescending show in that Reddit thread will just love for the direction I took the show a second ago.
Let's stay out there in the interest of giving equal time.
Let's stay out there.
I want to predict a record right now.
I want to tell you what I think Oklahoma is going to do this year, but I also want to tell you how bad I think it could be.
How perfect I think it could be if everything goes right and the most likely record scenario.
They were six and seven last year out there in Norman.
Wild roster turn that I have admitted I probably didn't take seriously enough.
They had quarterback injury.
They got beaten to death by Texas.
49 nothing.
Brent Venables was a guy who had never been a head coach before and hopped on a bus going about 70 or 80 miles an hour.
And it was, it just was what it was.
I don't know what else to tell you.
It was what it was.
They made a bowl game.
They lost the bowl game.
I remember we were sitting in this studio watching it on a monitor.
So year one was the definition of it was what it was.
Well, let's just turn the page, Bob Seeker style.
What is the absolute best that it could be for Oklahoma this year?
Now, if you're unfamiliar with this game, this is where you set realistic expectations to the side for just a second.
And we ask ourselves if the literal best case happened.
If every domino and tumbler fell into place, every needle was threaded, what's the best we could do this year?
I think 11 and 1 is the absolute best of best case scenarios for Oklahoma this year.
Now, that has to do with schedule combined with drastic roster improvement.
But I want to get to the schedule first.
This is not to be overlooked.
I've pointed this out to you a few times, but I really want to get vivid.
Even if you're listening on podcast, I want to get vivid with this for just a second.
So I'm going to read you Oklahoma's schedule, but I'm not giving you the teams they're playing.
I'm giving you the preseason over under win totals.
So here's what Vegas thinks about the teams on Oklahoma's schedule.
Listen to these numbers.
Four and a half, eight and a half.
And it should be noted that eight and a half is SMU.
So that's a G5, eight and a half, not a P5, eight and a half.
So let me start over.
Four and a half, eight and a half, four and a half, five and a half.
Iowa states off the board.
It would probably be in the four and a half to five range.
Texas, nine and a half by 10 miles.
That's the best team they play all year.
Six and a half, six and a half, six and a half, five and a half, four and a half, seven and a half.
This is the lightest load of any conference lift in the big 12.
And the only other argument could be Oklahoma state.
Somehow, the governor pulled every string imaginable in that state and set both of the in-state teams up.
But you still got to win the games.
So you don't play Kansas state, you don't play Baylor, you don't play Texas tech.
Still got to have things come together.
Still got to have that left side of that offensive line, that defensive line.
It's got to be a lot better.
Everything about the defense has got to be a lot better.
But in this scenario, it all is.
In this scenario, everything that was wrong last year.
A lot of close losses, by the way, except for the Texas game.
Everything that was wrong last year gets righted.
So 11 and one, yes, it's there.
Even the odds makers in Vegas made their over underwind total nine and a half.
So they expect a big bounce back this year too.
But you know that guy, Brent Venables, has been a head coach one year.
And it was a disastrous first year.
So it's reasonable to have doubts in your mind.
And that's where the worst case record scenario comes in.
And this one gets a little tough.
The worst case for Oklahoma this year would be six and six.
That's a huge gap, admittedly.
11 and one, to six and six.
But that's just because, as Mimal used to always tell me,
August feels, don't always lead to December yields.
You can feel any which way you want to about Oklahoma right now.
And you could have thoroughly convinced yourself if you live in a lot in Oklahoma, for example.
Or Enid, or Broken Arrow, or Wakita, where Aunt Meg famously resided in the movie Twister.
Robbed of multiple Academy Awards.
If you live out there, I know how it works.
Guys, I do it with paid state every year.
You could convince yourself that everything's good to go.
Everything's been cleaned up.
Every guy lost 30 pounds of fat and put on 30 pounds of muscle simultaneous.
Somehow that happened.
And the team's never been closer.
You know what the practice reports look like.
So, you can convince yourself of that.
But that's August.
They don't keep records in August.
You know once you get out on the open road,
if you got a wobbly tire, we can't go back to August again.
We just got to ride this thing out.
If the defense isn't fixed, that's a really wobbly tire.
If they aren't markedly improved, just as a roster, just as a team, as a collective.
If they haven't elevated above the balers, or the TCUs, or the Texas Tex,
which you're hoping they have, then every one of those games is in play.
And by the way, if it is too competitive in those games, you're not winning all those close games.
Or if you are, no one could predict that.
So you probably, at the very least, have a bunch of one possession, either way,
Bob games, Bounce of Ball games.
If you just come up on the short end of those sticks more times,
and not six and six is not out of the realm of possibility.
But that's not fun to talk about.
Here's what is at least palatable.
What is going to happen?
What's the most likely record scenario for Oklahoma?
I'd say it's nine and three.
And that's a blend of both worlds, obviously.
I think there will be major improvement on the team.
I highly doubt we watched them in week one, two, and three, and say,
I don't see much difference from last year.
However, I think it's pretty realistic to still expect some wobbly parts
to the overall Oklahoma bus.
And that's to be expected for a number of reasons.
But most importantly, Brent Venables is less than 24 months into being a head coach.
And this is Oklahoma.
It's a big time program.
It's a massive, massive step up in competition and responsibility.
There's a lot of reason for excitement.
And I think come seasons end if they're sitting at nine and three.
You've got immensely more reason for excitement and expectation.
But you also, you're not out of the woods of growing pains yet.
At least I don't think it would be realistic to say that's the most likely scenario.
So, hey, best case exists for a reason.
But man, I think that over under nine and a half is about right.
And I would lean ever so slightly to the under.
It's just because I know how life in this sport works.
Alright, let's roll it on here.
Gotta keep a nice steady pace.
I like where we are so far.
I appreciate you guys being tuned in live.
Tuesday night shows are still pretty new.
And being back, we've only had them back for a couple of weeks.
But the real ones know.
Okay.
So I knew we weren't going to get too deep into fall camp
before we got a question like this.
And frankly, I'm surprised it took this long.
Allen hit us up from Fort Bragg, North Carolina.
He said, is Mario Cristbal just in over his head?
It seems to me like Phil Knight secured those recruiting classes while he was at Oregon.
And now, with John Ruiz's troubles, can we expect him to compete with the rest of the state?
So for 98% of you who don't keep up with the South Florida financial scene,
John Ruiz is a guy who's been heavily involved in the Miami NIL scene.
He's a self-made billionaire.
Google it.
And so he's been in the news recently.
And there's a lot of stuff that it's kind of nebulous as to what the reality of it is and what speculation.
Anyway, so the perception was, uh-oh, Miami's angel billionaire investors in trouble.
Now their pocketbooks are going to dry up.
That's not happening.
Let me go ahead and tell you that right off the top.
That's not happening.
But let me dive into this for just a second.
I know that also anytime we talk about Miami,
because we've had Mario on the show like 10 times,
and he basically let us sleep at his house when we were down there a couple of months ago,
you don't think I'll criticize him.
Well, watch this, kids.
His offensive coordinator hire sucked last year.
They know it.
He knows it.
I know it.
Everyone who watched Miami football knows it.
And so that was a one and done thing.
Kevin Steele was the defensive coordinator.
He was a one and done.
Think about what that does if you're a new hire.
So it's already going to be uphill.
And you already have the rebuild or the overhaul or, you know,
whatever kind of program you inherit.
And you got to put your spin on it.
You've already got all that.
Even if your staff is nothing but grade A hires.
Well, what if you with on one or both coordinator hires?
That just set you back even further.
Now, I know no one wants to listen to me say,
year two may also be a struggle down there.
I don't think it'll be as bad as last year.
But I'm just saying, if you turn their games on this year,
and they go seven and five, that's an improvement.
It's not what you want.
Eight and four is not even what you want.
It's an improvement.
I don't think people are ready to consider that though.
You want to go from what they were last year to, you know,
flirting with nine or ten wins.
And maybe that does happen.
It always comes down to the one possession games obviously in quarterback health.
But that's not something that just needs to be overlooked.
Now, the question was, is he in over his head?
No, I don't think he's in over his head.
In over his head means he's incapable of doing the job.
I don't think he's incapable of it at all.
Quite the opposite.
I think in time you'll look at Mario now.
And say, that's the exact dude they needed.
It just doesn't always happen in 12 or 24 months.
That's what I'm trying to explain.
If you live in Tallahassee, Florida, you know that.
If you live in Austin, Texas, you know that.
Hey, it didn't happen for Kirby overnight in Athens.
You understand that Nichols state should have beaten Georgia in year one, right?
No, you don't, because no one remembers that.
Yeah, Nichols pushed him to the wire in Athens, GA.
So, yeah, Duke ran roughshod over Miami life.
So, yeah, Duke ran roughshod over Miami last year.
Middle Tennessee splattered them in Hard Rock Stadium.
It happened.
It is what it is.
It doesn't mean you're in over your head necessarily.
It just means you were cooking with the wrong ingredients last year.
Now, as much as you can criticize,
a cook for having the wrong ingredients in the kitchen,
you gotta credit them no matter how much money they spent on setting ingredients
if they're willing to toss them in the trash.
When it's still three quarters of the way full,
Dabo just had to do that with his OC.
Mario had to do it with one coordinator at least.
The other one got hired by Bama.
So, I don't think he's on over his head,
but I want to address this other part too.
Colin, in fact, I don't normally ask you to do this apologies in advance.
Can you put the question back up for a second?
So, I wanted to go back to this one part.
It was kind of, it was very, very cleverly woven into the question.
So, Alan asked if he's in over his head.
It seems to me, Alan asks or he says,
it seems to me, Phil Knight secured those recruiting classes
while Mario was at Oregon.
Now, the allegation here is Phil Knight, Mr. Nike.
He got all those players.
He bought all those players from Mario.
He built those immaculate facilities
and Mario just benefited from them.
Mario did benefit from them.
As has every other head coach at Oregon.
So, that's part of taking the job up there.
You'd be stupid not to leverage that.
However, I would ask you this.
Phil Knight has been at Oregon since color TV basically.
And so, I want to read you a list here.
The list sounds like this.
1927, 16, 21, 19.
Those were the recruiting rankings
of the Mark Helfritch and Willie Taggart recruiting classes at Oregon.
Best I can tell, Phil Knight was around when they were up there too.
Why didn't they always recruit like that?
If it's easy as Phil going to get the players.
Would it Phil lose interest in Oregon athletics for a little while?
You know better than that.
If you watch this show at least, you know better than that.
So, I would not really yield much time to that portion,
that allegation, if you will.
But this other thing about him being in over his head.
The thing about the Ruiz issues.
I've done some digging on that.
I think it's a much bigger concern outside Miami than inside Miami.
I know why.
Because if I'm a Florida fan, I love this stuff.
If I'm an FSU fan, if I'm a Clemson fan, if I just hate Miami,
I love this stuff.
Because I think they got a billionaire down there buying players for him.
And if that billionaire looks like he's in trouble,
and that money dries up, and they can't get players head-to-head with us anymore,
that is tantalizing as a thought to me.
I don't think that's quite what's happening,
but I understand why people want to feel that way.
But here's the good news.
Results will happen.
You don't have to take my word for it or anyone else's word for it.
You will see recruiting classes pan out how they pan out.
You'll see this year.
And next year, next year, pan out how it pans out.
My simple response is I think the Ruiz stuff is a little overblown
as it relates to impacting Miami.
I don't know about him.
But I'm saying I don't think it's going to be like a torpedo
to the side of Miami football.
I don't think Mario's in over his head.
And I think that in time they'll be fine,
but they did not have a clean takeoff last year.
And part of that's on Mario Cristobal.
So I don't think, look, I mean, I don't think I'm telling you anything he wouldn't tell you.
You may need to get him off the record,
but I don't think I'm telling you anything he wouldn't tell you.
And so, interesting program to watch.
That's all I have to say about that in the words of Forest Cump.
Next up, I need to tell you, as soon as I rip this posted off the paper
and pop it for good measure,
they're watching us in Bridgeport, Ohio,
Rock Chapel, Georgia.
Hand to heart.
I have no clue where Rock Chapel is in a group in Georgia.
But thank you guys for watching and Gilbert, Arizona.
Thank you so, so, so much.
We got all twos across the board.
2,222 Tune in Live.
You know, I was explaining to one of my dear friends the other day.
They said, hey, it's, you know, it's great that 3,300 people
are watching the live show.
But I thought you told me like hundreds of thousands to millions of people
watching listen to this show every week.
Well, it only looks like three or four thousand are watching.
No, no, no.
That's all it's watching live on the YouTube stream.
A very, very small sliver of our viewership and audience traffic pie
comes from live viewership.
However, the folks who watch the show live are some of my favorite people on this earth.
And I'm like direct Colin.
I don't like a whole lot of people.
So you guys are in rarefied air.
So much so that I'd make sure I'm watching live next week
because there may be some free stuff being given away in this chat.
That's as much as I'm at liberty to reveal right now.
Hey, it's time for paid state all Americans defensive edition.
Let's name some all Americans this year.
Now, we don't go about it necessarily like the AP does.
They do their own thing.
I care about what I think you're going to do this year.
So I don't care if you had monster stats last year.
If I think you're going to blow up this year.
You're an all American in my book.
So first up defensive line.
Gotta go with Jared verse down at Florida State.
First, he had first round potential last year.
Guys, he could have gone to the draft last year.
He came back.
It was a really big deal around Tallahassee and around college football.
Jordan Travis, you know him coming back at quarterback was another big deal.
All the tools to dominate.
You pretty well know Jared verse.
I don't have to tell you a lot about him.
Tyler Davis up at Clemson.
He's also first round defensive lineman on the paid state preseason all American team.
He's been three times all ACC.
He was an all American last year.
39 starts a quintessential piece of what you would expect along the Clemson front.
JT to Maloow at Ohio State has shown flashes.
He took over the Penn State game.
I mean, as dominant a defensive performance as you've probably seen in a long time.
But that wasn't consistent across the board.
He's one of the guys I'm talking about this year actually.
When I say, hey, Ohio State doesn't have an elite quarterback.
They don't have CJ Straub.
I wonder if there are some guys on that team that understand.
That means they have to up their level of play consistently for them to be 11 and 1 or 12 and 0.
That guy right there's capable of being the best player in college football.
I'm not kidding you.
That's what kind of talent he has.
If it's put together over the course of 12, 13, 14, 15 games.
That guy, well, he's going to make himself a millionaire either way.
But he can make Ohio State a national champion in the process.
And Michael Williams down at Georgia by way of Hardaway High School in Columbus, Georgia.
I think that he will explode on national radars this year.
He is not a guy who has monster numbers because he has not been featured at Georgia yet.
He will be featured this year.
Chop Robinson up at Penn State, defensive lineman.
These are the kinds of guys that you need to model your life and your caliber of play after
if you want to be a paid state defense of all American.
Let's go to the linebacker position.
So I can talk to you about the best defensive player in the SEC.
His name is, I believe at least, Harold Perkins down at LSU.
First team all SEC is a true freshman.
Look, I've had three coaches told me that's the best defensive player in the SEC.
And you've got a grand total of one year of him playing football at 18 years old.
It's ridiculous.
Just like took over games last year.
You had to account for him every play if you're an offensive coordinator and he's a true freshman.
Side line to side line, ultra physical, plugs the gap, plays the run, plays the pass.
Does everything you would want him to do.
Jamon Dumas Johnson at Georgia.
Also a first team all American at linebacker for paid state.
He led Georgia and tackles for loss last year and he started all 15 games for Kirby Smart.
I mentioned Kirby Smart the same way I would mention Sabin.
If they trust you that much defensively, it means something to me.
A lot of times they've just found guys who are dependable.
Most of the time they found guys who are dependable and also total freak athletes.
And Dumas Johnson is both.
Number three, there's no particular order here.
But the third player I'm talking about, Dallas Turner at Alabama.
I think I've told the story a couple of times, but I'll tell you once more.
I remember back when we were coming into last year and Will Anderson had all the preseason accolades.
And I had an offensive coach reach out and say, Will Anderson may be everyone's preseason all American.
He's a second best defensive player. Sabin's got Dallas Turner's the best.
And Dallas Turner is going to be the focal point of Bama's edge rush this year.
They've got half a dozen former five star guys in that room.
Dallas Turner's the best among them.
Number 15 there.
And I think that he's probably already on a lot of national radars.
He's got game take over potential too.
Abdul Carter at Penn State.
Big numbers last year.
Not so much.
He had big numbers as a spot starter.
He didn't start every game last year.
This is a guy who would not be on a lot of people's first team.
Because a lot of people do the double dip.
You know, they do the postseason all American team.
But then they also judge the preseason all American team off last year's numbers,
which makes no sense to me.
I think Abdul Carter is going to be a freak alien light player this year.
At linebacker for Penn State.
He's got a chance to take over games.
Everyone on the first team has a chance to take over games.
So I love all those guys at corner.
Got to go right back down to Tuscaloosa.
I think Kool-Aid McKinsey is the best corner back in college football.
He was second in FBS as a returner last year also.
And that gets us into that really fun debate where I get someone walks in and says,
mmm, I don't think you should play your starters on special teams.
That same person says, well, it's about offense, defense, and special teams.
You know, like there are equal thirds of a football game, which I believe, by the way.
But then that same person will devalue one of those thirds by saying,
let's not play starters on special teams.
No games ever been lost on special teams, you know.
So anyway, go say it to Nick Saban.
Ask him what he thinks about playing starters on special teams.
You don't even see Kool-Aid a ton in Bama games.
Because most folks don't even throw at him.
But when they do, it usually turns out well for Bama.
Kalen King up at Penn State.
They did throw at him a lot last year.
But it also didn't go well.
He was number one in Big Ten and passes defended last year.
He was an all-american.
He was all Big Ten.
He has been dominant in fall camp.
They don't throw the ball to his side of the field very often.
And like I said, he and Kool-Aid are the kinds of guys that if they played in the NFL right now,
they'd be able to hold their own in the NFL.
They'll be there next year.
So Kalen King's another one.
Will Johnson at Michigan is a first team paid state all-american.
And this is going to get some pushback.
Because Will Johnson didn't have monster numbers last year.
I would encourage you to go watch the Ohio State game.
He did have monster numbers in that one.
He was a freshman all-american.
He appeared in all 14 games last year.
The stats in 2022 don't screen preseason all-american.
I think his stats this year will warrant or validate rather him being a preseason all-american.
And that's all I care about.
So love Kool-Aid, Kalen King, Will Johnson.
Those are my corners.
But that's not all the secondary is made of, is it?
Let's go back to safety for just a second.
Malachi's starcs this time last year was the talk of Georgia's fall camp.
He's a true freshman at the time.
And I didn't tell you this.
So, starcs was so good in fall camp last year.
I forgot to tell you this story until just now.
Malachi's starcs was so good in fall camp.
They were actively trying to suppress information about him.
Like, Kirby didn't want information about 24 there out.
They didn't want folks know how good he was.
Well, then the Oregon game happened.
That right there, if you're watching on YouTube, that is his first college football game.
Amazing player.
Amazing player.
So, he's a preseason all-american for me this year.
Led in pass breakups, his first team all SEC started all 14 games.
Let's go to Miami.
Because Camp Kitchens is another one on the first team for me.
He was an all-american last year.
He led Miami and tackles with 59 of them.
He will be a national named this year.
His play is already at that level.
I think because Miami was bad, people didn't pay much attention to him.
Camp Kitchens is absolutely paid state all-american material.
Now, let me tell you what I almost did.
But I am...
It takes a brave man to do this and I was not that brave man tonight.
I regretted not putting Malachi Starks on my preseason all-american team last year,
even though he'd never played a college football game.
And I almost put Caleb Downs on my preseason all-american team this year.
Because he is basically Malachi Starks just over at Alabama.
The way they're talking about him over at Alabama really sounds like
the way they talked about Starks this past year.
I didn't do it again.
I didn't put a true freshman on the all-american team.
I already know I'm going to get claims of Homerism for too many SEC guys on this list.
But I almost did it.
And the reason I'm telling you that is because if he balls out this year,
I want all the credit with none of the blame if he only starts half a dozen games.
Let's move on.
And let's wrap up with bold predictions.
Bold predictions are something we do on this show because I want you to have the platform
to espouse all of these beliefs you have so fervently that you claim you would bet your own money on them.
First up, try this one on for size.
Derek from Tampa, Florida says,
despite your venom towards the gator fans and love for the hurricanes,
Florida will have more wins than Miami.
First thing I want to say to you, Derek, is I love you and go gators.
The next thing I want to say to you is I don't think this is going to happen.
So 8.75 is what I pegged this on the boldness scale.
Florida's preseason win totals five and a half, Miami is seven and a half.
Last year was the first time that both of these programs had a losing record since anybody 1979.
That's just two years after rumors came out by Fleetwood Mac,
greatest album of all time, worst season of all time, followed two years later in Gainesville and Coral Gables.
Florida has four opponents with a preseason win total of nine and a half or higher.
Miami has two, Miami has the edge quarterback.
I think Miami will win more games than Florida this year.
So I think this is wrong.
However, it wouldn't be the most shocking thing in the world if I was wrong and this was right.
So I'm making it at 8.75.
Next up, and this prediction comes with its own custom post it from producer Jesse.
Ashton from Wichita, Kansas said Iowa will have a top five defense and win double digit games this year.
Iowa has the number one defense and college football and preseason S&P plus.
So, so them having a top five defense wouldn't be a surprise at all.
They've been top 28 years in a row.
The intel we get from fall camp is they may have the best defensive line.
They've had in several years under Kurt Fairons.
Then there's the schedule and this is how we figure out how they win 10 games.
So, I have right here stuck to my index finger.
I have a list of the teams Iowa plays this year and I have their offensive S&P plus numbers.
S&P plus for those unfamiliar.
That's Bill Connelly's metrics and rating system.
Very, very reliable, very dependable.
I think most forward thinking people in the industry have shifted towards using that over traditional stats.
So, listen to this.
Again, you can go look up Iowa's schedule any time you want to.
I want to read you the list of offenses they're going to play.
111st, 74th, 118th, 22nd, 56th, 45th, 41st, 63rd, 126th, 58th, 83rd, 99th.
There is one offense on their schedule in the preseason S&P plus top 40 offensively.
Gross.
So, Iowa could very much just pitch shutouts this year.
Iowa may need to score about 13 points to win some of these games.
They may win and cover if they score 17.
So, I'm going to make this a 7.75.
The prediction was Iowa has a top 5D and they win double digit games.
That is not the craziest thing in the world.
Given this schedule, given the total grossness of some of these offenses
and given how good they could be defensively again this year.
Alright, next up.
No offense in the offense is in the big 10, by the way.
Next up from Virginia Beach, Virginia.
That's where Holden comes to us and he says Washington State will upset Washington in the apple cup.
This is where we need licensing for Sarah McLaughlin because this will be a Sarah McLaughlin special no matter what.
It is full arms of an angel mode.
It is the last game maybe in this rivalry.
I don't know if they've announced they're going to renew the rivalry or anything like that.
Washington State may just drift off into the Pacific.
The Pac-12 may drift out right along with the plate tectonics.
This is a crazy thing in college football, man.
It's happening as we speak.
So, Washington is 17 of eight in this matchup.
The last one possession game in the apple cup was 2012.
How is that possible?
But it is.
Washington State's preseason win total six and a half.
Washington, nine and a half.
The game's at Washington.
Now, the one thing that Washington State does have going for it is the lead up to the game.
They play Stanford at Cal and Colorado on a Friday.
So, not only do they have some of the bottom portions of the Pac-12 barrel,
they get long rest before they go play at Washington.
Now, Colin, tell me, do we have Washington's schedule in there?
Because the Huskies have a much more difficult road.
They go at USC, Utah, at Oregon State.
Last three games before they play Washington State.
So, that's one edge.
But, man, you're going up there to Seattle.
You're playing a much better team.
I don't know what injuries have done to either one of these by that point.
Also, the replace is so much it wired out for Washington State.
I made this a nine.
It's so hard to see that far out.
If the game were played today, I made that a nine.
Last up from Camden with a clover in his name from Austin, Texas.
Camden said Marcus Freeman wins coach of the year.
Well, no one's ever done this with less than 10 wins.
So, let's just assume Notre Dame needs 10 wins.
Brian Kelly did this twice.
Twice, 2012, 2018.
So, we've seen an Irish head coach do it two times in the last decade-ish.
The win totals eight and a half.
So, it's not too far out of the room of possibility for them to win 10 games.
But, here's the thing.
For them to win 10, maybe they pull an upset or two.
Maybe they beat Ohio State at home.
Maybe they beat USC at home.
And those, the USC game may not be an upset at all by the time they play it.
They go to Clemson late in the year.
Maybe they pull that one off.
Maybe they wreck a couple of people's conference title and playoff dreams.
And also win 10 games in the process.
A 10 and two Marcus Freeman with a big time statement win over a Ohio State
or on the road at Clemson.
That may be enough to get him in there, especially if we live in a world
where there's a lot of chaos out there.
And there's no truly dominant team.
And we also don't have a TCU or a Cincinnati Cinderella team.
I can see it.
However, it is really hard to call your coach of the year shot in August.
And so, I'm going to make this a nine.
And it's normally unlikely that I say it's a nine, but I could also see it.
But this is a nine yet I could also see it.
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For direct Colin, Bradley, the Associate Producer Jesse, I'm Josh Payt.
Take care.
We'll see you back here same time Thursday night.
Until then, God bless.