Week 4 Prediction Special + The Deion Tax & JP Poll | Late Kick Live Ep. 431

I think people forget how long college football season is. It is a long, long season, guys. I would guess that by the time we get to December and we look back over the top dozen things that were the biggest impact things that happened this season, 10 or 11 of them have not happened yet. But they could start to happen this weekend where jam packed, high atop a prepared downtown Nashville, Tennessee Tuesday, September 19th, the year of our Lord of 2020, we are prepared for one of the biggest Saturdays in the modern era of college football. I'll tell you how loaded it is because we've got a metric ton of games to predict tonight. I have got a totally and completely unhinged JP poll to drop in your lap so much so that I will probably call it out right along with you guys. Remember, it's the models fault, not my fault. There is a tax you're paying, not necessarily out of your wallet, but there's a tax you're paying in college football right now, kind of hinted at it the other night. But I'm diving in head first tonight and explaining the tax that we're all paying. It's a blessing to pay it, if you're in my line of work, but it is a tax nonetheless. So we've got other odds and ends to talk about six ranked on ranked matchups this Saturday. That's the most since 2006 for a single Saturday. That's a long, long time ago. Bradley was only like 35 years old back in 2006, so it's going to be a good Saturday. They're watching us in Hickory, North Carolina and Arbor, Michigan, Dalton, Georgia, Chicago, Illinois. I'll bench Chicago this weekend. I'll be there two nights actually. I have got to give you fair warning because I got word from the warehouse. Those we kept the receipts shirts in the paid state store, paidstate material.com for those unfamiliar flying, just flying out. So we got that one and later on, I'll show you, but I'll just remind you, we put one shirt in there per week for our once upon a Saturday tour. We're headed to South Bend Saturday, Ohio State Notre Dame. We're going to break the game down in about 10 minutes. That shirt's in there and once it's gone, it's gone. Once Saturday turns into Sunday, it's gone and you'll never see it again. So if you want to grab one, I'm giving you fair warning. Now look, we got a loaded show. I'm going to pace myself. I can't go anywhere anyway because like three and a half minutes before we went on air, I spilled water all in my lap. So I've got a case of what me and all would call the old soggy crotch right now. So I can't get up to begin with, even if we've closed up shop right now, I'd have to sit here in the dark. So let's talk some college football, shall we? Oh, dude, how in depth did I go on this the other night? I think I went pretty in depth. Okay. I know some of you love talking about Deon Sanders. Others of you cannot stand talking about Deon Sanders and then there's probably a healthy middle ground where you're like, okay, I'll talk about him, but you better have something new to say. Well, the other night, I hinted at something that was happening, sort of a phenomenon within the phenomenon of the prime effect in college football and I called it the Deon Tax and you're all paying it, every one of you is paying it right now. Kind of a tax that's been placed on the entirety of college football. Now, I warned you about the Deon Tax. I told you it was coming, Deon Sanders has been a massive blessing to college football. This is my opinion. You can think whatever you want to. Deon Sanders has been awesome for the sport. Now I'm of the opinion that even if you don't like everything about him, you probably should still look at it and say, well, that's great. How much attention is coming in that otherwise wouldn't have come, in fact, it's pouring in. It's not just coming in, it's pouring in. And especially if you're in my line of work, there's a reason why you don't hear anyone on my side of the fence over here complaining about Deon Sanders publicly because he's making a lot of folks a lot of money myself included. So I'll just be up front with you about that. But there is a tax with that blessing of a lot of folks from outside the college football sphere coming into the college football sphere. There's also a curse attached to that. It's called the Deon Tax. I told you the other night it was coming and now it's on full display for all to see. The Deon Tax is the people who otherwise would never care about college football, caring about college football. You may think, Josh, that's not a tax. That's great. You're right. It is wonderful. I love it. I love it. But, as Mima once said, those who know the least usually talk the most and a lot of the kind of casual drive by crowd that to his credit, Deon's brought into the sport. They can't just come in and sit down in the back and learn the ropes. They got to sit in the front row and they got to start running their mouth. And it's happening. The Colin is showing you right now a chart that is mind boggling. We don't talk ratings on the show a lot because they don't impact you. They have nothing to do with you, even though you are what those are. Those are ratings Colorado state Colorado the other night was like a 10 p.m. kickoff Eastern time. It had 9.3 million viewers. It spiked in the 9 million range after midnight on the East Coast. Those are just ungodly numbers. Those are like high level, like premier boxing in its prime did that kind of stuff. It's wild. Anyway, so obviously there are a lot of outsiders that care about this. Well, I told you this was coming. And now one example of it is happening. You probably saw Henry Blackburn's the safety for Colorado state that wiped out Travis Hunter. Lacerated spleen was the official injury. Travis Hunter is out for three weeks. It sounds like Carl Reed, by the way, Johnny on the spot getting that injury report earlier today. Coach Carl to me. And so he's out for a little while. Hate it, hate it, hate it. Should have been a 15 yard or personal foul, which I believe it was flagged. I did not get on board necessarily with the lit send its kid to Guantanamo for the rest of his days to think about what he just did. Let's charge him with a class a felony. I didn't get on board with all that. But there were some people who could not just stop it. That was a late hit or that was a late hit and that was a dirty play that couldn't stop there because that doesn't get you heard. Somebody had to step up and say, no, that kid should lose his scholarship. That kid should be disqualified from college athletics. This was all included in a very popular tweet that was making the rounds from someone who you normally wouldn't hear speak a word about college football. So in typical drive by casual fashion, what you'll find in life and in sports is anytime there is clout to be gained by outrage nine times out of 10, the crowd that's outraged will be matter than the people who should be mad. Like Dion, Travis Hunter, those are the folks who should be mad in this case, right? So if I got someone thinking this kid needs to be kicked out of the sport and banned for life and de-cured from college athletics, if he's that mad, my goodness, Colin, director Colin, what does Dion think about this? I'm saddened if there's any of our fans that's on the other side of those threats. I would hope and pray not, but that kid was just playing the best of his ability and he made a mistake. So I forgive him, see you, my team forgiven, Travis is, he's forgiven him, let's move on. Well I didn't quite go the way I thought, but you know what, very enough, Dion's not the guy who wiped out. Travis Hunter was the guy who got wiped out. So if one dude who wasn't on the field Saturday wants the dude banned for life, Travis Hunter and I would imagine he'd probably be dressed in a full giraffe outfit. I'm just going to guess, Travis Hunter had to have some strong things to say about this, right? This football that ended the day, stuff like that's going to happen, so I'm just staying home by the end of the day. You get what he was supposed to do, this football, something bad going to happen on the field, something like that. We just got to get up and fight again, that's what I try to do, you know, to fight. Good thing the doctor stopped me because if there was no doctor's there, I would still have been on that plan, but I don't think for everybody to help me that day, you know, you work on your speed recovery. Yeah, sure, that's the, sorry I was yawning in the middle of that, that's, it's not because of him, it's because that's predictably the way it's going to go. Credit Travis Hunter and Credit Dion Sanders, because they could have gone the opposite way and fan the flames of that. And what Dion was talking about was that safety for Colorado State receiving death threats, which is like the punk move to end all punk moves. It's always done via the internet, like I know people in our, and let me, let me give you a little heads up. By the way, if you're out there and you are one of the folks on the worldwide web who creates burner accounts and issues, death threats, I need you to know something. They know who you are. I'll give you an example. There is someone in my industry who was on the receiving end in the past couple of years and I happen to know some of the inner workings. I happen to know that private investigation firms really geo located pretty quickly. The few burner accounts that it was issuing the threats. They know exactly where you are. They know what school you go to. They know what street you live in and what dorm you reside in. Now, they didn't choose to pursue them in this case. And so, you know, they probably aren't even aware that they've been outed. You got outed. You need to be a lot more careful or or alternate point of view here, alternate strategy. Don't threaten anyone's life over anything, especially football. So anyway, back to the Dion tax. I got an approach that I'm going to try out this year. The Dion tax is new on us all. I love that Dion Sanders is here. I guess I'm going to have to accept the tax of the drive by casual crowd that comes in and runs its mouth. But that is Dion's fault, but it's not Dion's fault. And so here's what I'm going to do. My approach is what we call the Bucky's protocol. If you've never been in a Bucky's, find one and go into a Bucky's. They got like 120 gas pumps out front. You can see it from space. And when you walk in, you hear this, welcome to Bucky's. They just yell. They yell at you. The front station attendance yell at you and it's almost like a shock to the senses. And when I'm driving at night, it's really a wake up call because I'm groggy. I'm halfway asleep. I probably should have pulled over miles and miles ago, but trying to hold out for Bucky's. And so the Bucky's protocol is it's like it's like Froggiggin in the South. Like you take a five million candle power flash like you just boom, shine it right in their eyes. And if it works on a bullfrog from 45 feet away, it will work on a drive by casual. So no matter how negative they are, no matter how off the wall they are, here is my approach this year. Welcome to College Football. I'm just inserting college football where Bucky's would be. That's the only difference in the Bucky's protocol and how I'm going to handle drive by casual. Ultimately, while we may not be Giggin Frogs here, same strategy works. I'm not going to, you know, peel their legs off and fry them and eat them. Instead, I want to take these folks and I want to introduce them to some other aspects of our sport. It's not just Colorado. It's not just D on this happens to be the greatest sport in the face of the earth. We know that they don't know it yet. They could find out probably not best to be confrontational with these people. They're new here to new land. They're just discovering it for the first time. They're scared. They're probably little unsure of themselves and so it's up to us to be the bigger man and the bigger woman and welcome them in. Also, you are going to see some of the most low-hanging fruit and society be utilized in the day-to-day takes on Dion and Colorado and whatnot. I think most of you understand what I'm talking about. I don't give it the time of day or dignified on this show and I would encourage you to do the same. Although I know it's very hard when you see it right in front of your face. So yes, the Dion taxes here, probably to stay. I view it as a blessing. There is some downside to it, but we're going to take the downside in our glass form and we're going to turn it into the upside using the classic Bucky's protocol and I don't normally beg for advertising on this show because Academy takes care of us, but if that Bucky's call ever came, it would be tough to send that one to voicemail. All right. We've got games to predict. I normally just do wall-to-wall predictions, but I need to talk about the Dion. I did need to talk about the Dion tax tonight. Here we go. Here we go. Ohio State Notre Dame Saturday night, 730 Eastern time, NBC. We will be there. We will be on the sideline in Notre Dame Stadium. The once upon a Saturday tour is headed to South Bend. I am so excited about this. I cannot tell you how awesome it was the first time I ever went to a Notre Dame game as a young child growing up in the South and never thinking I would get to do that sort of thing. Now we get to go up there and we get to see one of the biggest out of conference games of the season. I asked earlier on Twitter, I just asked everyone, what's your read on this game because I swear to you, I went back and forth like seven times on who I'm going to pick to win this today. Ohio State's a three point favorite for the record. If you're into totals, 55 and a half right now, they played last year. It ended up Jesse. What was it? 21 to 10? I think the final was, but it was really close in the fourth quarter. You know, Ohio State tacked a couple of scores on late and that was in Columbus. I was thinking today about how different the offensive mentality must be for Notre Dame. Last year, Notre Dame was basically looking to ball control their way to win. Maybe force a couple turnovers, shorten the game and kind of go in there and steal one because they were playing with Tyler butner. So last year, Chris Tyree was their leading rush. We had six carries for 28 yards. How in the world did they even make that a close game? Well, they played really good defense and that was CJ Stroud and Ohio State. Notre Dame played good enough defense to hold them in check. That is not the case this year. That does not have to be the approach for Notre Dame this year. Sam Hartman is a very, very good quarterback. It gives Notre Dame the quarterback edge in the game. At least from a thousand foot's view. Now when you get on the field Saturday, anything could happen over a four quarter game. Audric Estime, the tail back for Notre Dame. I don't know how much he'll go off Saturday night, but I would imagine that six carries for 28 yards could be eclipsed on the first drive. It could be eclipsed. He's 8.3 yards per carry right now, 130.7 yards per game. He is the real deal. There was a hardy debate happening earlier today that I was just privy to. About whether that kid may actually be the best tail back in the country, and there was a lot of, you know, Blake Korum chatter, Trayvian Henderson looks really good now for Ohio State, by the way, but suffice it to say he's in the conversation. I don't really care if he's number one or number three, four, five, he's in the conversation. This right here though, Saturday night, that's the moment for the Ohio State offensive line. We came out of spring. What did everyone in Columbus say? We got a championship team with a sus aff offensive line tackles a question. We got to go to San Diego State and get a kid to hopefully be a plug in play. Well, they did hadn't really been tested yet. Now they're tested Saturday night and they go on the road. And so it's, it's going to be really fun to watch. I mean, this is when you have to find that stuff out. You don't want to wait until week eight to find out Notre Dame number two pressure rate in the nation right now. So match up wise, it doesn't sound favorable for Ohio State. Ohio State Randall, well, in this game last year that Trayvon Henderson, Mayan Williams, they both had six yards per carrier. They each averaged about six yards per carry Henderson looks good, man, like Trayvon Henderson's had trouble with injury in his career. And I'll just insert the obligatory, oh, it was only Western Kentucky. I get it, but I would encourage you go back and watch him last week. I did last night and man, that burst that he once had and then you thought he would have it all throughout his career. I don't know if he's looked like that in practice, but man, he looked good last week. My biggest questions here, I got several of them, but I'll just quickly roll through them. Number one, as much as that offensive line may be a question for Ohio State, do we think Notre Dame has the kind of defensive personnel in their front to wreck a game? Like just to just to be something that Ohio State has no answer for and they got to keep max protection in their most of the night, I don't know. That's what I wrestled with today because that would be the answer ironically with all this offensive talk. That would be the answer to Notre Dame taken over the game. Number two, I wonder if this turns into a slugfest. I wonder if Ryan Day is comfortable enough and patient enough to let the game come to them because I think I think Notre Dame could be fairly aggressive in the passing game. They should be. They should be because they've got the quarterback to do it, but sometimes when that's the case, they'll end up putting the ball in the air and you got to shot to pick it off. And Ohio State absolutely has the defensive personnel to do that. And so, you know, what if that turnover situation, what if those possessions get tilted plus two in your favor, you don't really have to do anything fireworkish or overly special offensively? That's a question I haven't also. If you do go to the air, you know, if you do try and utilize the weapons you have if you're Ohio State, could be any of a number of them, but do they have a wide receiver who takes the game over? I know everyone looks at Harrison, Kate Stover, it tightens, been really good. But Imeca Agbuca, Fleming, Cornell Tate, like any of those guys in a one-off setting have a potential to go off. So let's take a look at what Vegas thinks. Let's take a look at what the model thinks. You see the Vegas number. It's Ohio State minus three. I was very interested to crank the old model up today and see what it thought about this. The model actually leans Ohio State minus four and a half. So I told you I went back and forth like seven times. I can make a really good argument for both sides. No money will be wagered by yours truly on this game. Where I landed is the place you land when you're trying to see around the corner. So I'm really high on Ohio State. I'm going to pick them to win the game. I'll pick them to cover. It is not because of what I've seen from them so far. If I were going off what I've seen from these teams so far, I'd lean Notre Dame to win. I'll most lean them to win anyway. What I think is going to happen is I think they'll be an effort above and beyond what we've seen so far this year. I think what I think is just what I think I think there'll be a level of execution offensively that is a little bit especially with the competition factored in. I think it'll be a level above what we've seen so far this year and look, defense can win the game for them. Defense can absolutely win the game for him. If it's a game played in the upper teens low 20s, that's the kind of team that Ohio State has this year. I'm high on them for a reason. I think the players are there. Even if it hasn't necessarily come together, I also think you've got to staff up there that should be good enough to coach around some of those deficiencies. I don't know, and this is what I kept coming back to and I could absolutely eat these words. I don't know if Notre Dame is built to expose some of the flaws that Ohio State possesses. I'm going to Ohio State to win and I'll lay the three because it would be ludicrous to pick Ohio State to win, but Notre Dame to cover three. Needless to say, looking very, very forward to that one and a reminder, a reminder. The once upon a Saturday tour will be there and that bad boy right there, if you're listening on podcast, that t-shirt right there is available for one, two, three, about four, five more days and then it will be lost to history. You'll only see it in museums. I don't know which one, but you'll only see it in museums. Once upon a Saturday tour, Notre Dame Stadium, still only September, gotta love this sport. I've got good news, Chalife Supremacy, you're going out all over the country and we've got another, I think we've sent four or five of them, Jesse out today. I've got another one to give out and I will just show you momentarily what it's about, but Academy Sports and Outdoors, your one-stop shop for all things outdoor sporting goods and supplies. If you can't get there in person, academy.com has your hook up. It is such a beautiful thing when a new Academy Sports and Outdoors opens and I put out the challenge, go there, go to the grand opening, have a great time, tell the folks we said, hey, send us evidence that you went and you will be registered to win a Chalife Supremacy. Well, this is from Brooks and Friends and they're at the new grand opening out there in Kyle, Texas. I told you guys about that's near Austin and there you go. Not one receipt, not two receipts, but three receipts and look, some paid state signage while we're at it. They may not allow it at college game day, but they allow it at Academy Sports and Outdoors and Kyle, Texas. So Brooks and the guys, Chalife Supremacy on the way, looking for that shipping information, appreciate you and several more went out. I can't feature all of them because of time constraints, but Academy Sports and Outdoors, you need those tents, you need those chairs, everything you need for tailgating, grills, et cetera. They have got you covered, new locations opening up all over the place. Let's roll on a good pay so far tonight, but man, we got so far to go. We got a lot of games to get to. I thought we were going to be at this game. This next one, I thought for sure a month ago, we were going to be at this one. And can you guess which one it is probably? FSU is favored at Clemson, two and a half point favorite. And this is a noon kickoff Saturday at 12 high noon Eastern on ABC. It is the first time Clemson has been a home underdog since 2016. Clemson has 125 straight ACC home games. This is a referendum game is what it is. I don't really care about the rest of that. I was just reading it for your amusement. But I was doing radio with our guys at 1080 up in Portland of all places the other day and we were talking about this game. And I said the same thing I'm going to say right now. This FSU Clemson game is the referendum game because as much as Clemson looked bad losing a duke in week one and is unspecial as they looked at certain positions. That wasn't the one where they were really going to be exposed. That wasn't the one that anyone was going to really turn on dabbo because of that was just kind of ugly. But this one right here, when you've got a head coach in dabbo, Swini, that is refused voluntarily to use that portal. And you got a guy in Mike Norvel who is rebuilt his entire roster heavily using that portal. Those are two different philosophies very obviously. But now they're going to go head to head road team's favorite in your building. And you're already wounded. You took one to the kneecaps in week one and it was a conference game. So you don't have any margin for error. And I've said ever since that game, if Florida State comes in here and embarrasses you if they win by double digits, that is the stamp on your forehead that you can't afford. And I'm not talking about just with this year. So this is a big deal, big referendum game. Where will the Clemson offense come from? This is my first question for you. The first thing, actually, I got a one A and a one B. One A, as I think back to that duke game, is can anyone out there promise me turnovers won't be a big issue for Clemson in this game because I can't even promise you I can pronounce the school right. So can you promise me an even turnover game? Let's just say for the sake of argument, it's it's even in the turnover battle. One a piece or maybe zero a piece clean game. If we get that still, where does the offense come from for Clemson? Shipley and Moffa 6.4 yards per carry pro far this year. Kade Clubnick I think also has to be a factor here. Look, I know a lot of people who watched the LSU game for Florida state and they haven't watched him since then. They're thinking of FSU is like the super power team. They they got gashed last week. And specifically that quarterback for Boston college gashed him. So yeah, it's there to be had. Now, I think that was a wake up call, but it's there to be had. I wonder how effective Kade Clubnick could be at using his feet. I asked one of our evaluators today, who shall remain nameless. I said, how would you describe Kade Clubnick's running ability? And they said he's a he's a saturated Joe burrow. It's one of those really, really edgy like like next level evaluation terms that I'm just not ready for yet. A saturated Joe burrow. And so with that in mind, can they run the ball well enough or also are they going to keep the game close enough to where they can't afford to run the ball? Here's the deciding factor to me. FSU Clemson, I'll save you some time. I think the deciding factor is Clemson so far this year has been good in the secondary at limiting explosive past plays. I know the natural follow up is well, Josh, whoops, if they play answer, not very much, but they'll get a heavy dose of it Saturday at high noon or shortly thereafter. FSU has eight plays through the air already of 30 yards or more. Next question is Clemson's front going to be able to pressure enough because really it's been a mixed bag of results so far from them. Now I don't know. I think about both of them probably have bottled things up that we haven't seen yet for this game. That's natural. I expect an inspired effort from Clemson. I really do. I know that that program treats doubt and disrespect like oxygen and so they've got it. They got the oxygen mask on two and a half point dog unranked. There it is. The oxygen mask has been applied. Davos got to love it. However, FSU could silence that place. They go up 10 nothing. There's this sting in the pit of your stomach. When you know your team's vulnerable, Bama folks are going to feel it Saturday. If Ole Miss goes up early, Clemson folks will feel it. If Florida State goes up early and you know you've already been wounded by a much lesser team, I'll do respect. There's that thing in your stomach that says, uh oh, and you kind of go quiet because human nature sets in and 12 o'clock, that place is insane and 12, 18, that place is crickets and it's not even half time, FSU can do that. Clemson has been suspect and field goal kicking so much so that allegedly, reportedly, they brought a guy out of retirement who's in grad school to kick field goals for him. Other than that, everything's great at Clemson right now. So let's take a look at what the model thinks. Let's take a look at what Vegas thinks. The current number, as of Tuesday night at 7.27 pm central standard time, is Florida State minus two and a half. The model is even tighter than that. Models got it as a straight up pickum. I've got to be honest with you. I think Florida State's going to win the game convincingly. And so I'm going to take FSU to win. I'm going to take him to cover somehow some way. I think last week's near debacle at Boston College will serve this team well. I also want to ask you guys this question. I'm not going to answer it. I'm just going to ask it. Who has the coaching edge in this game? There are two very different schools of thought there. One of you will think from this point moving forward, you may have immense respect from Mike Norvell and you may say Norvell and staff. The other person in the room may look at Davos track record and his resume and say he's won multiple titles. How could you ever claim that a guy with none is better than a guy with multiple different ways of thinking? Comment section will be open. Who do you think the better coaching staff is? Who do you give the coaching edge to? I'm taking FSU to win. I'm taking them to cover. I think they're the best team in the ACC. Next up, moving right along. So this game is on the docket now, huh? Ole Miss Alabama Saturday, 330 Eastern, 230 Central Kick on CBS, our crew will be there. We won't, I won't be there, but our CBS crew will be there. Bam was a favorite, favored by seven. It is a tense, tense vibe around Tuscaloosa right now. Jalen Milro is going to start. I don't think that was all that difficult to see coming, although I got some pushback Sunday night when I said, no, he's going to start this Saturday. Who in the world that watched the South Florida game would doubt that? Ole Miss, they're Ole Miss. Looses can be. They'll come in there. Lane Kiffin could lose by 50 or one by 50. He just keeps talking the next time they play because that's Lane Kiffin. He is Owen for against Nick Saban. They had the 12 to 10 game, another generation ago when he was at Tennessee. 30 to 24, 42 to 21, 63 to 48. Those are the three final scores. As long as he's been the head coach at Ole Miss and Saban's been the head coach at Bama. Not surprisingly, I think Alabama's offensive line is the most important unit in this game. It's been the most crushingly disappointing unit in America to me this year. And here's what I mean by that. For a pop stat, Bama has the worst sac rate allowed in power five. All the teams and the team in Tuscaloosa is the worst one. This could go down as the single worst prediction and worst expectation level I ever had for a position unit in history. I digress. Ole Miss, by the way, so let me, let me not just gloss over this. Bama has the worst sac rate allowed in power five, poverty offensive line right now. Ole Miss has 10 sacks through three games. Well, there's the red light emoji going off. We continue. I think the approach by Alabama in this game with Milrose starting will actually be what it should have been against Texas. And that is a game plan that utilizes his strengths. Look, I know you guys doubt this right now. I still think they can be a half decent offense. If the game is called right with the right guy at quarterback, don't think we're going to rewrite the record books there, but they can be fine. They can be more than fine offensively, especially with the way they play defense, which is what's crazy. They have looked awful. The last game they played, I told you. I thought it was the worst I've ever seen them look. They can still win every game they play. They still can. It just seems so far out of reach, but really, it's like fractions of degrees of change. It's like when you move a ship's rudder. It's not all that much. It's just that you learn how small the margins are in this sport and you learn how being a little bit off here or a little bit off there. You can go from one in a national championship to struggling to pull away from South Florida and point spreads tell you that's not the way it works. Xbox tells you that's not the way it works. Your buddy at the barbecue joint Tuesday afternoon tells you that's not the way it works. That's the way it works. That's just the way it works. Quarterback runs included roll outs, occasional deep shots. That's the game plan offensively for Alabama and it doesn't really matter if they know it's coming. If you do it right, the wrench that old miskin throw in this thing and they're fully capable of doing it is grabbing an early lead. And if you doubt it, remember what Quinn viewers did when you was popped him over the top. He popped Alabama over the top several times. Jackson darn 12.5 yards per attempt this year. That's right up there near the top of college football. So they can hit the explosive play through the air. Interested to see who can and can't go for Ole Miss at wide receiver. Keep checking that throughout the week. There are two paths for Alabama. Two paths remain and the two paths for Alabama right now are they can elevate or they can evaporate because I need to tell you this is going to be a very competitive game. Ole Miss could win this game outright and do you understand what that means? Do you understand what happens if Alabama loses? If Alabama is a two-loss team on what September 22nd or 23rd? Dude, it's not October yet and they got two losses that's never happened. That doesn't happen. For all intents and purposes, they're out of it. I know mathematically they're not. But dude, if Ole Miss goes in there and beats them, it will be because the same problems persisted, they're going to have multiple additional losses if they're not drastically improved. You've never seen that climate around that program. This isn't a program that knows how to lose and that's a compliment, it's a testament to them. So you can either elevate and if they elevate, man, like I'll be right back all in because I picked them in the title. So I got no other choice here, like I am Leo DeCaprio on the top of the ship as it's going down and I'm telling Kate Winslet, all right? When I say, hold your breath, breathe as deep as you can and hold your breath. Right now, we're underwater, okay? We're being sucked down, but we're kicking, we're kicking, we're paddling, we're trying to get to the surface. We just need a gasp of air. Tommy Reese, please give us a gasp of air. Colin, show me what the model thinks. All right, it sounds like I'm rooting against Ole Miss only because I'm trying to juke some folks in the ribs who were having fun with me the other night telling me I hate the program. Because naturally I grew up in Harris County, Georgia. So, you know, I, of course, I hate Ole Miss. It's that natural West Central, Georgia, Northern Mississippi rivalry. Tail is old as time there. I don't hate Ole Miss. Let's see what the model thinks. The Vegas number is Bama minus seven. The model, believe it or not, leans Alabama. There is none of my bias built in there. I can assure you, the model does lean Bama because it is once again the same way it is with Ohio State. He's trying to see around the corner a little bit. I think it makes sense that we see an inspired performance from Bama Saturday. I think it makes sense that if I'm right about that team in the chemistry or like they're of when they didn't get the quarterback they wanted, if they do get Jalen Milro, that's Nick Saban basically saying, all right, you want this dude? Here he is again. It didn't work out the first time. Show me what you got. Any competitor worth his or her salt will respond Saturday. If Alabama responds, Alabama should win. Alabama should cover. I'm actually going to take him to do it. I have no confidence in this whatsoever. I'm following the model because I don't know any other thing to do. I will take Alabama to win. I'll take him to cover. Kids, I cannot stress enough. There's so much better things. So many better things you can do with your money than bet it on this game. Uncle Josh does not advise you to do that. But as I said, I'm on the ship for better or for worse. And if it's going down, I'm still on the ship. I'm going to take Bama to win, Bama to cover, and one way or the other, this is a lead topic for Sunday night because either they've rectified things and in that case, it could be off to the races or they haven't. And oh boy, find your nearest tombstone and just start etching. Same way with Clemson. Two teams that were running this sport five or six years ago, and it looked like there was no end in sight. My goodness, half times potentially could have changed. Next game. You want to talk entertainment? Let me take a sip from the chalice here. Hmm. You want to talk entertainment first off. I want to say thank you to those of you who are watching live. Make sure you like the video because we got several thousand in here and we got less than a thousand likes. Again, a poverty number that we could fix immediately. Colorado plays the Oregon Saturday. This is a 330 Eastern kick on ABC. It's 1230 local time story of the year. I don't need to rehash what Colorado has meant in this sport this year. Ditto for Deon Sanders, but it feels like everyone's waiting for the shoe to drop. Like there's a lot of folks out there waiting for them to run up against a real power team. All do respect the TCU, all do respect to Nebraska. This is Oregon. Oregon is in many a top 10 out there, including mine. Oregon is actually the AP top 10 or number 10 team. I will see where they are in the JP poll later in the show. So everyone's waiting. There's a group of folks out there who think Oregon will splatter Colorado all over the place Saturday. You know what I think this is a major stage because of Colorado. As much as you like Oregon, you can be the most die hard Oregon fan in the world. You know there's going to be a massive audience that tunes into this because you're playing Colorado. Well, here's what you do. You take advantage of it. This is Bonix's shot right here. Bonix plays for Oregon. Bonix has been a really good player. They got a Heisman campaign built around some really cool merch, by the way. But he's still playing in the pack 12 and that works against you, although it shouldn't. Colorado comes in and you're going to get a worldwide audience at your doorstep and Travis Hunter is out for Colorado. And Colorado has allowed 265 pass yards per game with him in there. It is a byproduct of playing Dion's team that everyone is going to be watching you. Do something with it. Do something with it. Catapult yourself. Throw for 450 and five touchdowns. Go off against Colorado and catapult yourself in front of a worldwide audience right into that Heisman conversation that truthfully you should already be a part of anyway. Should do or Sanders speaking to quarterbacks is going to have to be electric Saturday. Because there are three touchdown underdog in this game. And that's for a reason. But they were also that against TCU and they came out on top. So crazy or things have happened. Here's the problem. He's got to do it behind the very suspect offensive line. That bonix should be okay behind his. Should or Sanders is playing behind a line that's allowed 16 sacks through three games and they can't run the ball either. So Colorado, you know, should or Sanders has got a he's got to have a whole lot more of that offense go through him. Then bonix will have go through him on the organ side. But what's the shot? Like that's a lot of stuff that's pro organ. What's the shot for Colorado here? If they were to pull the upset. The shot to me number one is catch organ plan undisciplined. They're 119th and penalties so far this year. Colorado has 10 takeaways. They are number one in FBS and takeaways. They're doing that thing USC did last year. Now here's the small problem with that organ hadn't turned the ball over yet this year. They are one of two teams with zero turnovers. Now it doesn't bite you until it bites you. So for all I know for the first three times they turn the ball over are all coming this Saturday. Let's take a look at what the model thinks. I'll tell you right now Vegas is minus 21 at the moment. That thing's been going up and up and up all week immunity. So the model's even higher than that. Like the model leans heavily organ here. We got organ minus 23. I think that this is the kind of game that sort of hits the reset button a little bit. I know I thought about it. I thought it about TCU I was wrong. Prove me wrong again. I guess I'm going to take organ to win. I think they'll end up covering and it'll be really interesting to see how toxic the talk is after that because I don't know when it's going to happen whether it's this week against organ or next week against USC but whenever someone does get a good piece of Colorado you know what's coming. It's going to be so dumb. Some of the conversations are going to be so stupid. You're going to have a bunch of folks saying I told you so about Colorado losing a football game when they were supposed to lose. What was the count? Nine of them or 10 of them according to Vegas. Yeah, yeah. Shocker if they do lose Saturday. They're also a top 10 team. Shocker. Recalibration of expectation. Warned you about it a long time ago. I guess that's also part of the Dion tags, huh? You got casuals who come in but then you got folks who claim to be die hard fans of the sport who lose their mind entirely. And here we are just trying to keep things balanced here in the middle but I am taking organ to win. I'm taking organ to cover. It's time to take a brief recess from predicting games. I got to tell you the show is about to go off the rails. I apologize for it entirely but we've got to do this. One last sit from the chalice before we descend into complete chaos here. So every week in Colin, this is an explainer. You know what Colin put this in the video when we make it. Every week I release the JP poll on Tuesday night show and it's just a power rating. It's not a ranking. If I were an AP voter, I would rank teams a lot different than I'm about to show you that I've power rated them. It's just our computer model. Here it is right here. Model, meet the people, people meet the model. And the model spits out of power rating and all it is is ordering the teams based off of who it would favor against who on a neutral field tomorrow. That's it by the way. That's all. That's the entire explanation of what you're about to see. I always have to explain it because it falls on deaf ears and 14 nanoseconds after I release this. Someone's going to ask why so and so's ranked behind so and so. I don't rank teams. This is a power rating. Having said that, I will disagree with this batch of power ratings. I'm about to show you more than any batch of power ratings I've ever seen. I looked at it this morning and it was unhinged. And I thought to myself, self, you could insert yourself here. The people don't have to know. You could make it a little more palatable, but I thought, no, you know what? I'm going to let the model ride and I'm going to let the model walk the plank in one way or the other. The model will look like a goat or a genius here. So here we go. Let's start from 25. I'm going to quickly work to one. And I'm just going to shout out my beefs with this along the way. Missouri is not power rated. Like what are we doing right now? So North Carolina is 25. Central Florida is 24. TCU is back in the power rating at number 23. Again, this is the model. This is not me. If I watched Missouri, the Missouri team I saw in person last week and gets TCU right now. I've leaned Missouri, but the model says no. Tennessee is at 22. UCLA should be higher to me. They're at 21. Dante Moore is going off right now. They play Utah Saturday. One of the sneakiest good games in the country. We continue into the top 20. Miami's number 20. I like Miami to be higher than that. So Florida's 19. I'm okay with that. At least Florida's ahead of Tennessee right now. I think they're a better team than Tennessee. A&M's at 18. What happened? A&M goes, I'm talking not to you guys. It's just between me and the model. What are you doing? Like A&M is number 18. A&M played basically a trash can last week. I don't want to do that to our folks down in Monroe. But I mean, seriously now, how do you go from not rated to number 18? No one foe well. Miami just hung half a hundred on them. You've got you got A&M ahead of Miami, by the way. So again, I've got significant issues with this. Don't think this is on me. No, it's not on me. This is on the model. Now A&M could could beat Auburn into a coma Saturday. And maybe this is justified. I don't know. Ole Miss is number 17. Utah's number 16. Utah at home at 16 plays our number 21 team this Saturday. We'll see who I pick later this week. We move on. We haven't even gotten to the top 15 yet. Clemson's number 15. Oregon State's number 14. Oregon State, I think, will beat Washington State who we inexplicably don't even have power rated Saturday night. But we'll see about that. Noted names number 13, huh? Oklahoma's number 12, huh? Florida State plummeted because of that Boston college mishap. Now, I will say there were. There were some trouble signs in that Boston college game. BC was right on the precipice of winning that thing. But they didn't. Now, for the a win as a win crowd, you're technically right, especially in a conference game. But there were things that in that game happened in a two-point win that you're glossing over that I think would be meltdown material if you lost by two points. Well, the model just sees it either way. So it did doc Florida State heavily. I mean, it's got FSU outside the top 10 right now. Interesting. So who's in the top 10? Well, let's roll it, Colin. Michigan is at number 10. I know folks who have Michigan number one in the country. But Michigan, I don't know if they've been sleepwalking. That's my guess. But the model doesn't know that. The model does not test how drowsy you are as a team. It just sees that you've been playing very laxataisical and it has punished Michigan. I'm talking about like a broomstick over the wrist. Number 10, Penn State's rated ahead of Michigan. The model would favor Penn State slightly against Michigan on a neutral field tomorrow. Penn State fans are shaking their head right now. Penn State folks are looking at this, saying we can't stop their running game right now. I don't know that I disagree with you. I would favor Michigan over Penn State. But the model says, no, not me. All right, hero. Bama's number eight. I don't know. Bama's number eight. I guess the one solace we can take is LSU has vaulted ahead of Alabama. So for the first time this year, we have a different number one in the West than Alabama. So LSU seven organs up there at number six. Now, you know, we've been higher on organ all year. I do agree with that. Now Colin, before we roll to the top five, you'll notice I think one thing, and the further up in the Pacific Northwest you go, the more likely you are to notice, there is one team that's been absent. And it's the team that I have been chastised the most about this year. Because this team was rated, I think inside the AP top 10 to begin the year. We had them outside the top 20. And boy has there been a course correction from the hypocritical model itself. Roll it, Colin. Guess who's in the top five? Washington is in the top five now. Washington at number five. They've vaulted up nine spots. Texas is four. Georgia is no longer the number one team in the country. So you get a nice 10 point win in conference play. And the model says, nope, sucks to be you. Boop, boop, boop. Drops Georgia to three. So it can put Southern Cal, who has played basically four of my neighbours. So far on their schedule, Southern Cal is the number two team in the country. Are we kidding ourselves right now? And Ohio State is number one. Ohio, Ohio State could lose by 10 for all we know Saturday night. So in conclusion, I want to tell you, I think Ohio State's probably a little bit too high. I think it's insanity to have USC number two right now. Georgia at number three, I think is on their way to figuring a lot of things out offensively. I'd still have Georgia number one. Texas I'm cool with Washington looks like a machine right now. And so as crazy as it would have seemed to me to see Washington at five a few weeks ago, strangely, I have no problem with it. But man, that Bama rating at number eight, that's the difference in ranking and rating. Because there is not a world where I rank Alabama in the top 10 right now. But power ratings wise, just knowing how odds work. Dead still be way up there. Like I told you guys last year at this time, it takes a lot more than one loss or even two losses in the eyes of odds makers to knock a roster that talented out of a top 10 power rating. Man, I wanted Missouri in the top 25. Like I wanted it guys, I wanted them in the top 25. It did not happen. I think the comments will be very lively here. Just to understand, if you're mad at me, it's not my fault. It's the models fault. If you have praise that you want to deliver, my name's on the pole. So with all due respect, it should be me. You're praising. But if you want to hate, hate the model. Don't hate me. I just want the credit with none of the blame. Thank you. This has been the J people for Tuesday night, September 19th. They're watching us in McKinney, Texas. They're watching us in Wilmore, Minnesota, Seattle, Washington, Charlotte, North Carolina. Thank you guys so much. That's about to go live on Twitter. I think in two minutes, it will, um, it'll be ugly. That's what I'll have to deal with when we get off air tonight. All right. Barry, Barry off the radar and freaking game to talk to you guys about Auburn plays A&M Saturday. And here's why this is sneaky. So A&M has no margin for error. They already lost, um, humbly might I add. But they haven't played a conference game yet. And so this is the conference opener. I think for both teams, Auburn at Texas A&M, A&M's minus seven and a half. It's a noon kickoff Eastern time on ESPN. Think about this now. There are big ones upon a Saturday tour implications here. If Auburn were to win this game, as a seven and a half point dog, they would remain undefeated and they would come home to welcome in Georgia next week. CBS game of the week, by the way. So you know, I love a good trip to Lee County, Alabama. A&M's in desperation mode here that this is the deep end. Okay. If you've ever grown up and you learn how to swim, some of us got thrown in the deep end. Others were allowed to stand in the shallow end and tiptoe their way to where the pool starts to cut off towards the deep end. And you find out how far down that ledge, can you walk and still keep your head above water? Well, that's where A&M is right now. They're starting to walk out into the deep end for the record. So is Auburn. Auburn won this game last year. The Brian Harson led Auburn Tigers won this game last year. 13 to 10. Cadillac, you know what? Cadillac's a good call. Cadillac Williams was the head coach by that point. I would have been roasted in the comment section for that cause that's that game a Jordan Harris stadium that was on fire. Huge recruiting weekend and outsiders probably turned it on and thought, why are these people so fired up? It's college football. They got a lot of pride in the program. That's why they were fired up. So Auburn won 13 to 10. They outrushed A&M 270 to 94 that night. However, this is Peyton Thorns game. This is the Peyton Thorn game because Auburn is a run first team right now and A&M is allowing under 100 yards per game, even against Miami. Miami didn't run the ball very well against him. Miami just threw the ball all over the place, which begs the question, can Peyton Thorn do the same? Auburn's run the ball 125 times this year. They've thrown it 78. Auburn's leading receiver has 14 catches for 174 yards. It's been a very pedestrian passing offense. It'll have to be radically different Saturday. Unless you're going plus four turnovers on me, it has to be radically different. But as much as it has to be the Peyton Thorn game for Auburn, I think it very well could be the Conor Wigman game. Conor Wigman can end up being the best quarterback in the SEC this year. And I don't think people are fully on board with it yet because they attribute that loss against Miami to quarterback somehow have win lost stats. I don't really get how that works. But he's throwing it for 303 per game. Eight touchdowns, two picks so far. He could be in a situation where his game is about to scale up a little bit. And this would be ideally for them where it starts. You got Evan Stewart on that team at wide receiver. A Nia Smiths out there. Noah Thomas, Moose Mohammed. They are deep. They are deep in the past catching department. Conor Wigman has SEC QB1 potential. He has got a skill set. And it sounds crazy. I know because it's A&M. And you haven't married yourself to the idea of them being functional offensively yet. He has got all American potential. He's got that kind of skill set. If he played for Lincoln Riley, he'd be a Heisman contender. It's what I'm trying to tell you, but he doesn't. But that's okay because you do have Bobby Patrino in the building out there now. The roster view of this, you know, just if you go paper pot roster, A&M's got to decide to talent advantage here. They are fourth in the 24-7 sports team talent rating, Auburn's 18th. But where the real separation is, and you can do with this whatever you want, A&M's got 10-5 star players on their team. Auburn doesn't have a single one. Let's take a look at what the model thinks. The Vegas number is A&M minus seven and a half. And the model is, it's like a pancake stack right on top of it. Model is identical nearly to Vegas. It's just off a touch. It's got A&M minus seven. So every time think you got a game figured out something crazy happens. So this game right here reminds me of Kansas State and Missouri last week. I don't think anyone's picking Auburn to win this. But the line is one possession. And that's the same way it was with Kansas State last week. Remember, I said what I think most people said. Why is this line only three and a half or four, I said? Every edge that I can see leans towards Kansas State. Well, then a football game happened. And a funny outcome occurred. That was a 61-yard walkoff field goal. Is there a path for Auburn here? Yes, there is. I just think there are more paths for A&M. So I'll lean the side. I'll take the percentages. And I'll take A&M and in a year where I do think they at least possess the offensive ability to get some margin rather than having to win every game by the skin of their teeth. I'll even lay the seven and a half. I think there's a little trap aspect there with that number. So I'll take A&M to win. I'll take him to cover knowing full well the history of the Auburn program when you pick against him. Oh, man. Hit my funny bone on my chair. I got one more game here. I have got two added best bets on the Ramanoodle Express tonight as well. I'm very proud at the pace we have had on this show because I thought this thing was going to be like two hours tonight. I thought we were going to go like Jerry Lewis Telethon style, Bradley Answering phones over here, but no. So let me take a step from the chalice. I got one more game to break now, and then we got two best bets. Oh, chalice running low. We haven't drained it yet, but it's running low. Iowa is at Penn State and get this. It's the Whiteout game Saturday night 7 30 Eastern time kick. It's on CBS. It's actually it's a CBS game. So we've got it. I know it says otherwise down at the bottom of the screen, but no, no, no. Whiteout alert, baby. Love the Whiteout game. The Whiteout game I experienced a couple of years ago. Wonderful experience. Anyone who's on the ledge about, you know, spending your next couple of paychecks to attend this thing, do it. Do it. You won't miss $500 10 years from now, but you will have missed this memory. Buy your memories, people. Buy your memories and just worry about your debt later. There's one piece of advice I can give you. It's dad just don't worry about your debt. You'll be fine. Penn State has another gear to them. I know they do. I know their offense has another gear. They haven't hit yet because I know they can run the ball better, or I think I know they can run the ball even better than they have so far. So listen to this. 40% of Iowa's offensive production is out. Out for the game. And this is already a team prone to sucking offensively. So 40% of their production is out. Luke, Lache, Tiden, out. Patterson, the running back out. Caleb Johnson, another running back out. No available player for them has more than 81 yards receiving. So what's going to, is it the first to 10, when Saturday night, Iowa has to force turnovers. Very obvious what they have to do. They have to go, they have to go Venus fly trap mode. And for that to happen, Penn State has to give the game to him. I don't think they will. Penn State has zero turnovers this year. They're plus seven in the turnover department. That's the best in power five. So again, the turnover bug doesn't bite you until it does, but Penn State has shown the ability to protect the football. It could actually go the other way, you know. If you're missing a couple of tail backs and you are struggling, like I don't know what to move the ball, it may be that you ask Kayne McNamara, if you're Iowa to take some risk through the air, it may be that Penn State defense that forces some turnovers. And you already can't afford it, because you already are very, very short on playmakers. I think Penn State will have the chance to hit Iowa over the top. Like as much as it sounds like they're just going to grind out this game. And I think by and large, they'll try to there are going to be placed to be had over the top. Like Iowa's secondary has shown, um, you know, not, not, not ineptitude by any stretch. But there are plays to be had in that secondary, more so than in most years, I think. However, singleton and Alan, the two tail backs for Penn State, still waiting on them to break loose. They, they, they've got a different gear that they can kick it in. And I think they will in this game. Here's what the model thinks. The Vegas number is Penn State minus 14 and a half. Uh, the model is a little bit shorter than that. It's Penn State minus 13. I, I think this is going to be an ugly looking game. I think it'll be a weird looking score. Like I don't predict scores. But you know, like 29 to nine or something like that. I think that's what this will end up looking like. And so even though it's a double digit spread, I don't think Penn State has to score a ton to cover. That's the feel I have on this. Uh, Penn State. Oh, how, how helpful. 901 against the spread in their last 10 games. Now I am the person who famously said trends are good at predicting the past. We're worried about the future. But since that happens to anecdotally back up my argument here, I'll repeat it on air. Uh, I'm going to take Penn State to win. I'm going to take them to cover the 14 and a half. I think they'll win by 17 plus. And currently, this is the number three team and the number four team in the odds to win the big 10 championship key distinction. One of them's in the West and Penn State is the other team. All right, let's get some best bets in here. Let's get out of here. Oh, by the way, before anyone rails against me in the comment section, Oregon State, Washington State. I know we didn't pick it yet. Texas Baylor, we didn't pick it yet. UCLA Utah, we didn't pick it yet Thursday night. We cannot fit all those games in the show tonight. So Thursday night, I'm not, I'm not overlooking those. We just have such a loaded slate that I wanted to give due diligence to all the games. And um, we would have skimmed the surface too much tonight if we did that. Okay, uh, ramen noodle express best bets. We're already on two games that I gave you Sunday night. And that's middle Tennessee state minus two. They're playing Colorado State. And then we've got Oregon State minus two and a half. They're going to Washington State. I guess that kind of burns the prediction on that game. But we'll, we'll break it down anyway. All right, two added best bets. We're going pit plus seven and a half. I believe at home against North Carolina. And you know what we're going to do? We're going to bet Kent State because it moved to 28, which we were waiting on for two days, it's long two days. Kent State plus 28, they're at Fresno. Fresno casually plus eight turnovers last week. So this is pretty much an auto play against them. So Kent State plus 28, pit plus seven and a half, Oregon State minus two and a half, middle Tennessee minus two. You know what I did tonight? I enacted what we call Jimbo protocol because I knew we had a lot to get to. And there's really only one way you can get through breaking down seven games, JP pole, best bets and the Dion tax. And that is to talk at about 650 words a minute, I can't take credit for it, friends. I learned it from attending Jimbo Fisher press conferences. Jimbo Fisher, you pull the string and you let it go. And instead of form animal sounds like that toy you had as a kid, he just talks like an auctioneer. It's amazing. It is a site to behold in person. And I tried my best to do it tonight and look at us. Colin Jesse, we wrap the show up in just over an hour. Thank you guys so much for producer Jesse for direct calling. I'm Josh Pate. Take care. We'll be back same time Thursday night. Until then, take care and God bless.