Week 5 Predictions + JP Poll & Conference Picks Revisited | Late Kick Live Ep. 434

At Academy Sports & Outdoors, we carry all the gear to have fun and spend time with family. Get the gear you need to kick off summer. Swing by your local Academy store today or shop online at academy.com to find igloo coolers, traeger grills, pelican kayaks or stay fresh in new styles from Columbia and Nike. Plus easy and store or curb side pickup, shop anytime, anywhere and find our widest selection of colors, styles and sizes. You know what's wild is college football is a second most popular sport in this country and yet a large chunk of the national sports media treated like it's a foreign language. They can't talk and you force these people to talk about our sport for two seconds, they sound lost. I guess that's beneficial for us, but oh, for the greater good of society. Can we please learn a thing or two about this sport? We're jam packed. We're high atop a ready to go downtown Nashville, Tennessee. It is Tuesday night, September 26th, the year of our Lord, 2023. We got week five predictions on the show tonight. Got a number of games we need to go over. I'm going to be down in Auburn Saturday for Georgia Auburn and people have questioned me. Jesse and Colin, you've heard it. People have been questioning why would you go to that game need. I remind you the last two weeks, the building I've been in was the building where the game was decided on the final play. Is that my prediction? Well, we'll find out during the show tonight. I'm just saying if you're flipping through the dial Saturday afternoon that CBS 330 Eastern 230 Central game of the week, may bear close watching. It turns out the more I thought about it Monday, I've got some more things to say about this whole damn landing thing at Oregon. This whole Ryan Day thing. A little bit of Dion Sanders, but mostly those two. I went back and listened to what we said Sunday night. I didn't get it all off my chest. And also some more things have been added onto the plate since then brand new JP poll tonight. I have not spoken to the model all week. Famously, I disagree with the model last week on things such as putting A&M ahead of Miami, even after Miami boat race, A&M and the model. It tried to put some more foolishness out there today. Luckily, I caught it at the pass. We'll talk about it in just a little while. And also one of you had the nerve to ask me how I feel here in week five about my conference championship predictions. Well, the answer is in some cases not too good. Not too good. Not I'm a realist, not too good. And so what am I going to do tonight? I'm going to take my own good name. And I'm going to drag it through the mud a little bit, but that's okay, because there's a hose pipe out back and it's only week five. No one's eliminated yet. All the things are looking pretty dire in some compartments of my predictions. They're watching us in Evansville, Indiana. Lulu, Florida is tuned in Salt Lake City, Utah. You people are saints for tuning in, even though I cannot get a Utah game right to save my life. And Charleston, South Carolina. Thank you guys so much. As you have seen, if you follow on Instagram at Lake Kick Josh, just all sorts of things. It does not matter. I don't care if you're listening to me. I don't care if you're girlfriend who couldn't care less about college football is listening to me. There are things for everyone over there at Lake Kick Josh. Wonderful. Behind the scenes access we had at Notre Dame, Ohio State last Saturday night. Friday night lines is their live on Friday nights, the only place that you can get that and some other odds and ends. So there you go. All right, let's dive into the show tonight. Always appreciate you guys being tuned in live. The live chat's always on fire. And yet it's always over here to my right. So I just, I kind of see it in my peripheral vision going crazy, but I do go back and look after the show and I ban like five people per show, but largely I just appreciate it. It's unprofessional. I shouldn't cover my face with my papers there. One of the golden rules on this show has been and always will be is do not coach to please your enemies. And there were two glaring and wonderful examples of that going on last Saturday night. One of them was Ryan Day against Notre Dame. I know that's bent a lot of you sideways and then Dan landing and what he said before during and after the Oregon throttling of Colorado has rubbed a lot of you the wrong way. I famously have never particularly loved the way that dabbo swiney went about motivating his team at Clemson. But if you'll notice and you've watched the show for a while or if you have you've noticed, I always thought he did a great job. That doesn't sound like it makes much sense, right? How can you both not like something someone does, but also think they're doing a great job? Well, it doesn't matter how I feel about how dabbo want runs his program. As long as he's getting maximum efficiency and results out of his program, I'm not talking about this year, talking about over the long run. It was obvious, regardless of whether it rubbed me the wrong way or not. It was obvious that the level Clemson was playing that dabbo was doing something right. So who cares what I think about it. Well, I say the same thing about these folks who were upset about Dan landing. Saying what he said to his team and Ryan Day for saying what he said after the game the other night when he sort of quasi targeted Lou Holtz and I told you I thought that was just bottled up emotion that he's been carrying for a little while. Well, I'll get to Ryan Day in a second, but I wanted to circle back. Sometimes I clap when I'm really excited on the show. I want to circle back for just a second on this. We don't do this very often. My Tuesday, I have a long since moved on from last week, but I thought about this yesterday and the more I thought about it, the more I said, dude, you left a lot of meat on the bone the other night. So let's pick it clean here. I think Dan landing was really introduced to a large chunk of the college football public last Saturday. Now, if you're watching this show, chances are you're a diehard fan. If you're watching this show, you already knew who Dan landing was. You had a fully formed opinion of him and that's wonderful because that's how we roll not everyone rolls like us. Some people check in on Saturdays and they don't follow the sports Sunday through Friday. These are people who would celebrate the offseason. These are people who don't mind being booked in a fall wedding. They're out there. I promise you they're out there, maybe closer to your social circle than you want to admit. Those folks did not know a whole heck of a lot about Dan landing going into Saturday. And then for about a three or four hour window, Dan landing was blasted all over Twitter, all over Instagram, all over TikTok, all over national television. He was in the game of the week against Colorado, whether you want to call it that or not, it was. And all of a sudden, the first impression folks had of Dan landing was this dude that looked like a borderline psychopath going crazy talking about how they're out for one thing we're out for another thing. Let's do the talking with our pads. Dude looked like Kirby smart West, cause that's kind of what he was. By the way, that's the last dude he coached under before he went and got his own job out of door him. Well, anyway, the game went the way it went. And I told you Sunday night, I don't know what Dan landing is going to say this week, but man, I know he's got a Monday press conference coming up and I hope and I hope and I hope that he does not bend a knee to these people who were going to ask for apologies and asking if he regrets anything because it was obvious based on the level his team played at. He pressed all the right buttons. Well, we have acquired footage clear from Eugene Oregon of said press conference and we're going to give five stars to Dan landing for this one calls friends. This is how you put on a clinic after putting on a clinic. Here's what I say we're playing to win the game right and you saw a 15 second clip from a window view outside the house of what happens in the locker room right. I know our locker room. I'm in the house 100% of the time. I know how our players felt. Going into that game and I know what it takes to motivate our players. That's my job to motivate our players. Right. He has a job. I have a job too to get out there and to perform on the field. But inside that house, they felt a certain way. They felt a certain way about a group stomping on the oh, they felt a certain way about guys talking to him in the pregame and I'm proud of those guys because what they decided to do is talk with their pads. Right. They didn't want to do anything extra afterwards. They want to talk with their pads and they did that on Saturday. I'm also grateful and can clearly acknowledge that the attention that we got this Saturday in large part was due to do to Dion and what he's doing to college football. And if anybody can't see what he's done for college football and how he's bringing excitement to college football, you're crazy. Credit Dion. Check. Don't bend an inch. Check. Defend your players. Defend your position. Check and have your creative media people run circles around everyone else by out Colorado in Colorado after you body bagged Colorado. It was a clinic on all fronts from the University of Oregon. This past weekend and bleeding into this week. And if you don't know what I'm talking about. I know a lot of you don't peruse social media a lot. Go borrow your nephew's account. Log in and just go watch the borderline short film that Oregon put out. It gives you a sense. If you just watch the broadcast, you wouldn't pick up on it. It gives you a sense of what pregames like. I'm on the field every week. I see this stuff every week. I hear the talking every week. I know what it's like. Frankly, I'm surprised that there are not not down drag out brawls every week in college football. You watch. You watch a team rack up three or four personal files in a game and you call them undisciplined. I'm sitting here thinking. I cannot believe based on what it sounds like on this field right now. Every one of these games does not devolve into just an outright street fight. It's crazy. So I had to the discipline that it takes to play at the level Oregon played at. And then afterwards. And you've you've run up the score on someone. Afterwards, your creative services department. It turns out captured all the pregame talk and it captured everything day and landing is talking about. And I think they should enter that thing in some festivals. That was how that was how good a cinematic presentation. That was. But let me, let me try and put this in terms that 98% of the audience will understand. I know most of you did not play high level college football. I know most of you didn't coach it. Most of you didn't go on to play pro. Most of you didn't go on to play pro. Most of you didn't go on to coach pro. I share that with you. I have it in common with you. I do have the good fortune of seeing this stuff up close every week. I'm telling you the average person could not possibly comprehend how high a level this stuff is being played at. How high a level the intensity is. How off the charts like animalistic. The aggression is the aggression that it takes to compete at this level. You don't reach that in a nine to five in a cubicle. You never need to reach that. I hope you don't reach that in your living room in Susquehanna on a Saturday. You didn't think I knew where that was. Did you Jesse? What happens though is that's when you see it. You see it from your couch. And it's like you're watching Dan Lanning go crazy. And it's exactly as he put it. You're seeing that kind of from the street view. You're seeing inside the window and the dude's yelling in his house. You're seeing a lesson called for little do you know the kid just sprays spaghetti sauce all over the walls after he warned him not to. There's a good reason he's in there yelling is my point. You're not in the house. You don't know you have you have not the slightest clue. Well, you also didn't know what was going on in this game. And you also from your couch cannot possibly fathom what it takes to compete at the highest levels of the sport. Otherwise you'll get run over. It's like you're sitting there watching predator and do standing on the bridge. Slice this chest up with a machete and you're saying what doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Yeah, from the living room in a little rock arc. And so it doesn't make a lot of sense. Just like in the living room watching Dan Lanning go off pregame. It may occur to you that that's a little over the top. That seems a little performative. That's Dan Lanning, dude. And after the Ohio State game the other night. That's Ryan Day. If anything, what happened is both of those dudes to a certain extent sort of allowed the curtain to be peeled open or alternate point of view. Based on the fact that we have cameras in every square inch of a stadium now with microphones. You got to see some stuff that happens pretty frequently that you just aren't normally privy to you don't normally get to see that. It happens a lot like what you saw is not out of the norm. I promise you it's not out of the norm. Did you see Lanning's players? Did you see how well within the norm his attitude seemed for them? And if not all the time, certainly that was within the theme of what the attitude had been like around that program that week. So I'm watching it and I appreciate it and I had no problem with either one of them. But my point is even if I did personally not really job with it. I don't care because they got the performances that they need to out of their team. That's their job. Like Lanning just said, that's the job. Also with Ryan Day. I'm so interested after this whole thing where and I did not expect to say this Ryan Day comments on Lou Holtz. Lou Holtz responds to Ryan Day. I should note Lou Holtz brought it up before Ryan Day ever commented on him. I told you I don't really think it's a Lou Holtz thing. I think it's a collective outside noise thing with Ryan Day. I'm really interested to see how his team responds. Because I saw them play the other night. They went a game that was defensive, a slugfest in nature that has not been their MO under Ryan Day. They've had elite quarterback play most of the time under him. So they've been able to run it up on teams. Well, they didn't run it up the other night. They still won. It's a testament to Ohio State. Now you saw what he said. I'm sure by now you've seen what he said the other night and called out a lot of people who have questioned his team. He was just the adrenaline's flowing man. It's live TV. You never get to say, hey, hold on. Can we do that again? You don't get to say that. We're live, pal. As Jim Ross once said. So what I want to see is how his team responds. You know, cause a lot of the criticism that Ryan Day has incurred fair or not. I lean not far more often than I do. Fair with him. It's really on players to execute. You got to put him in the right position. You got to develop him and coach him up. But it's on players to execute. And if I'm in that locker room. I watch that dude. And I want to run through a brick wall for him. But also I think to myself, wow, man, these people, they trash him. Cause I don't do my job. How about I do my job. And I think that's what you'll see. Candidly, it's what I've expected from Ohio State the whole year. We'll see where the J people has him a little bit later. But my point is when you see these dudes and they seem a little bit over the top. It's over the top to you based on where you're viewing it at that particular moment. It's not really over the top in their environment. Also, a lot of times you think you're seeing chapter one of something. You're really seeing chapter eight. That was a lot. And I mean a lot of metric ton of BS in a lot of cases that led up to. Ryan Day feeling the way he felt that wasn't a little holsting that wasn't a week of the game thing. You're crazy. If you think that otherwise he'd be like that every week. Anytime someone ran their mouth. It'd be like that every week. But landing. Same way. You just see that every week. If that was the case. I just happen to think there was good reason for both to behave the way they did. I got no problem with it. I know a lot of folks who I respect in some cases did have a problem with it. I don't care. Cause I don't even care if I have a problem with it. As long as their teams perform the way they need to. That is all that matters. And then there's a period. There's no yeah, but there's all that matters. Let's move on. Let's predict some games. Let's get to this. I wanted to I wanted to just be curious for a second. Let's just say this was your show late kick with fill in the blank and the blank is your name. Which game would you circle as the marquee game this weekend. Last weekend. If it wasn't Ohio State Notre Dame. It was FSU Clemson. And I know that people had interesting Colorado Oregon. I didn't think that was going to be a competitive game. So I thought it was the other two. This week though. What do we have? We got we got Florida Kentucky sneaky good game there. I'm going to the Auburn Georgia game Georgia Auburn game say the home team last kids. We've got USC Colorado. We've we've got South Carolina Tennessee. Like there's some good games out there. But which one would you consider the big game? I'll tell you the one I'm starting with USC goes to Colorado Saturday. Do we put Colorado in wounded animal mode here? Do they qualify for that? This is a noon Eastern kickoff. That's 9 a.m. on the West Coast kids. Can you believe this? And Dion and company signed off on it. They said yes, please. You know, I love a big noon Eastern time kickoff. I've accepted the Dion tax in the sport. The Dion tax is what you're dealing with when you see people who don't know a lot about college football talk about college football. I said to open the show tonight. It is wild beyond imagination to me that this is the second most popular sport in America. And there are national sports media types who talk about college football like it's foreign language. They are lost the second you talk college football with them. They are lost. It's amazing to me, but it passes for national sports conversation somehow. You know what else though? Been talking about the Dion tax. The Trojan tax is a thing. If Lincoln Riley wins a national championship at USC, you'll find out about the Trojan tax. Because if there's a college football team in Los Angeles, California, performing at a very high level, I know because I've seen it happen before. You got all kind of folks who have no clue. You got folks who could not talk themselves out of a wet paper bag college football conversation all the sudden with a with a megaphone in front of their face. And it's like, fight on, fight on, fight on. There is a Trojan tax. It's a pleasure to pay it because that means you're winning by the way. So we talk about the freeze point sometimes on the show. The freeze point. Basically, if you've got a big point spread like we have on this game, the freeze point is the minimum baseline that you have to be able to work at as a team to have a shot to win a game. So I'm going to consider Colorado has a shot in this game. That's why we're going to break it down. What I learned from the Oregon game was nothing that I didn't think I already knew. So Colorado cannot protect the quarterback right now. And we saw that we've seen that though. That wasn't anything new. Colorado is not a run first team by any stretch. We knew that already. So that was nothing new that the Oregon game presented to us. Colorado struggles to stop the run. That is nothing new. We've seen that so far this year. So with all that working against you, how do you upset USC? How do you find a path USC second in FBS right now in rush yards per attempt? So if you're struggling to stop it already and they got the cats they do in the backfield doesn't sound like it. Well, Colorado allowing the eighth or the ninth highest run rate in the country right now, not too good. USC sixth best pressure rate Colorado has allowed the most sacks in FBS right now. So it makes sense why there's a three plus touchdown spread on this game. What has to happen in the interest of fairness here. If Colorado pulls this upset, what has to happen? First, they need the early jolt. They can't be getting down 714 21, nothing like they did against Oregon. That could happen via a pop pass yards after catch. It could be a special team sting. Defense has forced a lot of turnovers. They got a lot of takeaways. So whatever the case may be, they got to get home crowd involved. They don't have to work against the same stuff they did on the road last week. Colorado's forced 11 turnovers this year. That's the good news bad news is. If you think you're going to do it through the air, Caleb Williams has not thrown an interception yet. And if you find out that you can run it early on Colorado and I figure USC may have a fair amount of success there. I don't know how many risks they're going to feel like they need to take. They're going to need some help from USC though to to be there in the fourth quarter. I think they'll need some help here. But what about USC's defense? Because this is the shot for Colorado here. If they're ended in the fourth quarter, it's probably cause they won the hidden yardage thing, but also. I was totally puzzled still am by the USC Arizona State outcome last week. Arizona State has no players left and USC never really pulled away from them at all. They allowed USC allowed 12 plays of 15 plus yards to Arizona State. I can assure you if Arizona State can do that Colorado can do that and we'll know early. We'll know early if they're if they're popping big passes or if it's underneath stuff and it's yards after catch. We'll know early. I don't think that's the kind of thing that USC is going to give up early and then tighten up as the game goes on. It's what I'm trying to tell you. Shoulder Sanders is a 70 nearly a 77% completion guy this year. So if he's if he looks like he's on early and then that crowd kind of gets behind them and USC looks a little discombobulated. Could be four quarter game. Let's take a look at what the model thinks. I already told you Vegas has this at USC minus 21 and a half. That's right where we have it. We got USC minus 21. I am a believer that Colorado coming back home after dealing with what they dealt with last week will respond. Travis Hunter still not playing here, but I do think USC will win this. I think Colorado will find a way to cover this. I think there'll be an inspired effort enough and also the opportunity for a back door cover enough to where I'll take USC to win. I will take Colorado to cover. I don't think it's quite as lopsided as it was last week. You're talking currently about the number one versus the number nine team when it comes to odds to win the pack 12 championship. Academy sports and outdoors presents this show to you free of charge Academy sports and outdoors is your one stop shop for all things outdoor sporting goods plus. Academy sports and outdoors also when it comes to the plus has a lot of things that you probably don't realize they have more important to me this time of year because this time of year. You're starting to get into fall which precedes winter and that means you could do anything from camping to grilling you could be totally overhauling your wardrobe they've got it all for you. And they've also got it on academy.com if you can't get there in person and I stress to you guys all the time go in person if you can. Because it always exceeds expectation and it just makes you feel good you go from just seeing it on this little screen behind me every week. It's not that little bit immunity but you go from seeing it on the screen to seeing it in person it does things to you it's a magical experience I don't know any of our viewers have ever gone to academy.com or Academy sports and outdoors in person and hit me up and said you know little underwhelmed most of the time it's hey I thought you were lying when you said they had everything I need. Well look I found some mittens or whatever the case may be and as always I got big league to you in the checkout line academy sports and outdoors we appreciate them as always. Let's roll on I've got the ultra rare I mean ultra rare post it pop here Colin here's your end point. This little post it in my hand has terrible news for one team in the SEC West so I am going to Georgia Auburn Saturday I will be there on the planes the once upon a Saturday tour in tow and it's a 14 and a half point spread right now. How much of the country has watched Georgia how many I know you may have seen highlights how many of you have watched this team this year I don't think that many of you have. Before I talk about Georgia there's a little post it in my hand that has a stat that's quite frankly a little unbelievable this is courtesy of Brandon Zimmerman Auburn has been under 100 passing yards in their last five games against power five competition that is ineptitude that dates back to last year obviously that I read it now I'm going to throw that posted away for the sake of my friends in the greater Lee County area that's brutal so. Obviously that would be a padlock stat we got to reverse that this Saturday Georgia flipping the script now Georgia has played UT Martin they played ball state South Carolina where they trailed 14 to three before pulling away in the second half and they've played UAB they've won six straight versus Auburn is this their ignition moment like Georgia has not played at a national championship level yet I don't think they have I think they're capable of it though they are one of several teams that at any given point. Could just just take off they just ramp up and all the sudden oh there's the Georgia that I expected in August there's the Georgia expected coming out of spring as always when we're looking in the game with the double digit spread we got to make the case if the upset happens what would have to happen well the situationals would have to work against Georgia so the first thing is I think a lot of people circled this game number one cause it's the deep South's oldest rivalry number two. On a much more national level if you circle this game and you live in El Paso or San Angelo or Odessa or Lubbock or any of a number of small to midsize Texas towns for some reason you probably circled it because it's Georgia's first road test it's a conference game but it's also their first road test and you never really know in the sport until you take your operation on the road what you have especially if you've got a new offensive coordinator a new quarterback as part of that operation so. It's taken apart lesser teams before Jordan air stadium really really charged environment if you do what Penn State did to him last year you silenced the crowd and they spill out of there early but if you don't do that in other words if Georgia allows this Saturday what South Carolina did to them and it's Auburn going into the half with a 14 three lead you've rarely heard noise like you hear in the second half of Jordan air stadium if that were to happen also. We need to have Auburn in the wounded animal mode they just look terrible against a nm now I know a lot of you watch that and you say well if Auburn look terrible against a nm no way they can beat Georgia what I saw is a team looks so terrible offensively I don't see any incentive for them to maintain I think there will be changes at the way they handle quarterback like maybe we'll see Robbie Ashford Saturday and I don't know that that's that's total blind statement for me. I also think the way they call plays you freeze talked about this way they call plays I think there'll be a lot of adjustment there's no guarantee that works please understand me but a lot of times sometimes you just roll the dice out there and they come up the way you need them that would need to happen for Auburn and you need to have some weak spots for Georgia that maybe the country hasn't seen that you expose any the moment exposes and the environment exposes now Auburn's defense has eight. Take aways this year that's tied for most in the ACC or the SEC I don't know where it would land them in the ACC but Georgia's first test here with a team that can run the ball and is dedicated to running the ball that's what I'm most interested to watch because I here's what I think I think Georgia will pass the test I never know I never know until I actually get to see it two things though that that make me feel good about Georgia this week number one. This is the moment they could find their past rush now if you've watched the Georgia games you probably could explain why their sac rate is pretty low I know sacks are not the end all be all just it makes more sense to a mass audience to talk about sacks rather than have a great impression rate so when you're when your stats are all in a line and there's no you know there's no big offset one versus the other I'm just going to talk about sacks because more people identify with sacks. Georgia's got five sacks through four games this year that's low by their standard now they've also faced a bunch of teams getting the ball out really quickly this week I'm very interested to watch this because Auburn has allowed a 10.6% sac rate this year that is 12th worst in FBS so there is a world where Georgia doubles their sack total in one afternoon this Saturday there's a world where that happens also the Georgia ground game. Could emerge this Saturday Auburn is allowing 134 rush yards per game that is the second worst number out of all the teams in the SEC so if past rush shows up for George all of a sudden if the run game pops for six and a half yards per carry it's going to be a good afternoon for the bulldogs therefore Auburn needs the game to be ugly in years past with the styles of these two teams it was Georgia that wanted to ugly up the game it's not here it's not cause Georgia's got the better offense at least to this point this year even with a new quote. Water back even with a new OC so it's Auburn that needs to lean on defense crazy we're saying that about a huge freeze team but it's Auburn that needs to lean on defense lean on home field maybe for some mistakes from Carson back and then just kind of see what happens there they need the South Carolina script to repeat but instead of being on the road in Athens it's Auburn at home let's take a look at what the model thinks the Vegas number right now is Georgia minus 14 and a half. I always love teams coming off a loss coming back home Auburn fits that description here they are playing a team that hasn't been on the road yet this year I think George is going to win this game I think their offensive line is going to provide the single biggest mismatch in this game I think they'll be able to run the ball effectively but also because of the style and because of the fight I think they're going to get out Auburn I actually don't think they're going to pull away to the degree it would take for them to cover so I'm going to take Georgia to win I will take Auburn to cover if you're giving me 14 and a half and the model for the record if you're listening on podcast degrees because it has Georgia minus 12 the odds to win the SEC championship right now Georgia still number one Auburn number 10 and we will be there Saturday and I just received word before we went on air the once upon a Saturday tour shirts for this game are within 83 of breaking our record so far this year and I know our audience especially down in that part of the country I can safely say we're going to break that record it's on the screen right now and if you're listening on podcast just go to paintstatematerial.com it's right there it is one week only after Saturday night that one goes into the history books you can never buy it again and we are very very excited as we always are it's kind of a homecoming get to stay in my hometown of Columbus Georgia well ports in Georgia just north of Columbus this this Friday night in advance of the game looking forward to seeing everyone down there are let's move on game predictions continue appreciate you guys if you're watching live I you know I should throw this not a disclaimer but I should throw this reminder out I have no problem with anyone coming into the comment section on Sunday and talking about whether a pick was good or bad but if you're coming in there to talk about how a pick was bad you better have record of having given your prediction on the game because if you don't let me tell you what the most played out statement on the face of the earth is and if you're guilty of this just stop for your own sake stop people who say this aged poorly after the benefit of hindsight or I'm not going to say you are a loser you are exhibiting loser tendencies as Mima always said smart people can do casual things casuals rarely do smart things you're probably a smart person guilty of casual behavior there a blind monkey can tell you a pick was bad if the blind monkey gets to witness the game they wouldn't watch it because they're blind no one cares about you coming in here on Sunday and telling me a pick was bad go on record yourself now if you're on record yourself if you put your own self out there be my guest swing away other than that your comments getting deleted and you'll probably get blocked from the channel it's not that I'm thin skin look my my skin is just as thick as anyone else's but it clutter's up the comment section and if I'm sitting on a plane all no sleep and I'm scrolling through that I can only look at that so many times okay very screw gish attitude from me right now Christmas um three months from yesterday get the shop and done LSU versus Ole Miss is I think the sleeper game of this Saturday it is a six o'clock Eastern time kick yeah so five o'clock local time there in Oxford I can go and tell you the model is going haywire on this one so it's the first time these teams have met in a top 20 matchup since 2003 that's Eli Manning in Oxford Mississippi the last seven games LSU is averaged 42.3 points per game what does that all mean absolutely nothing I just wanted to throw it out there how does Ole Miss avoid a repeat of last year if you'll think back to last year in this game Jayden Daniels went off he went off nearly 400 yards through the air five touchdown passes LSU pulled away the one forty five twenty my advice and I'm going to say it slow so everyone here is it score a bunch of points just score more if you're Ole Miss they didn't score last week they didn't score enough in this game last year score and it's got to be with Jackson Dart and if you go back and watch LSU last week they had trouble putting Arkansas away I'll tell you what gave him trouble KJ Jefferson with his legs made a bunch happen that doesn't always just mean on the ground either it means extending plays and throwing the ball over the top that stuff messed with LSU last week Jackson Dart can do the same thing he did not do it against Bama effectively enough last week LSU is not as good defensively as Alabama so maybe it happens this Saturday LSU is going to be able to score like you cannot be counting on getting into the fourth quarter and it being a rock fight in a sand pit that's not happening so I'm assuming I'm going to need 31 plus to win it that's what I assume against LSU and if I don't I don't that's great I got to have Jackson Dart be the most important player in this game I got to have my wide receivers healthy I got to have Quinshaw and Jenkins healthy at running back or as healthy as he's been and there's reason to believe that he's probably there for Ole Miss but if all that's in place then can LSU do what Alabama did it'll be tough what Alabama did is they held Ole Miss to 56 rushing yards they pressure Jackson Dart they sacked him five times they got after him all afternoon and they made him make high leverage throws and it didn't work and Alabama didn't even have score a whole lot it did not work LSU's pressure rate is second last in the SEC which of course makes no sense because they appear to have disruptors all over the place I know they've been playing a certain kind of way down there whatever if you if you don't get after Jackson Dart he will beat you Saturday so I would advise attempting everything you can to get after Jackson Dart the game's going to be decided I think on third downs LSU's offense is fourth in FBS on third downs right now they've been very very good on third down Ole Miss not so much offensively third worst in the SEC now on any given Saturday that's like turnovers that can totally invert but all we have to go on is what we have to go on so right now LSU looks to be the team with the edge but I'm telling you as I said the last two games we predicted and I'm going to say it again teams that lose and are coming home off that loss I'm always attracted to it is one of the sicker parts of my personality I when everyone else is speeding out of town I'm Jeff Goldblum in Independence Day with my with my elderly father there in the passenger seat typing away on a laptop made in 1984 we're driving towards the issue we're driving towards the problem great movie great great and very realistic film Independence Day very true to life if aliens invaded it would be very true to life I think that I need to take a look at what the model says on this game because Vegas has LSU minus two and a half and that probably doesn't surprise you LSU a slight favorite what you need to know is the model disagrees the model thinks the wrong team is favored really so the model has Ole Miss minus one and they think I hate them in Oxford did you know that Colin and Jesse they think I hate them in Oxford you couldn't be further from the truth um I'll leave it at that you couldn't be further from the truth I am taking Ole Miss to win this game outright think they're going to pull a mild upset there and I think it's going to be because of Jackson Dart and I think it's going to be pretty wild I think it has game of the month potential and we've had some crazy games already I think that Ole Miss is going to somehow find a way and if they do Is that right Jesse LSU's ranked 13th right now if they do Maybe Lane Kiffin ups that stat that we read the other night Like one in 18 versus teams that finished with nine wins or more I think Ole Miss is going to find a way to win this game and if they do now that just throws the SEC West into a blender Because Ole Miss has already got a conference loss. They've got a division loss to Alabama They can't lose Saturday or else they're for all intents and purposes. They're out of the division race LSU's not out of anything if they do lose Saturday though because their loss is out of conference right now LSU is spotless in conference play It would just it would just be very very chaotic If LSU wins this game you kind of maintain that trajectory of of this Alabama LSU collision course And I'm not saying either one of them's guaranteed to go undefeated between now and then But if LSU does lose now. I'm going to lean slightly that they do Boy oh boy. What a mess we have in the SEC West I will get texts. I got about five dedicated LSU friends who watch this show And if I pick against them and sometimes I do I hear from them and I know it's coming. That's fine though Because if you think I'm taking heat for that way do you see what I'm about to show you It's JP pole time. I need to take up. You need to excuse me for a second. I need to take a long sip from the chalice I'd also like to take this opportunity To address a sound you've been hearing Jesse calls it whale mode when you hear this Just he thinks that sounds like a whale clearing its its blow hole out or whatever you call that thing. It's spout um Sometimes in spring and fall I get a stuff he knows on air And I don't want to take time to clear it because That would just make me too normal. So instead of saying excuse me and Blown my nose like a normal person I just find very sneaky ways to go right in the middle of a sentence and hope that you think it's just feedback Hopefully you think Colin didn't wire the microphone right as I've told you many times I just want all the credit. I'm not interested in blame or criticism. I just want the credit And so up until this point I have hidden from you the fact that's actually me But I thought about it today and I looked in direct Collins innocent doe eyes and I said he doesn't deserve to shoulder this burden. So yep, that's me Blame it on the allergies, blame it on the transition of seasons Whatever the case may be blame it on the fact that we're live we could we I could have Bradley the associate edit this out in post but We don't like to operate with a safety net the college football playoffs expanding every team's gonna have a safety net under them Not us not us We're going tightrope a hundred feet off the ground and if we fall you know if he dies he dies That's our model around here Not literally because HR is steadfast against it, but HR leaves the building about 555 15 every day. So we're good. Okay JP poll time JP polls not a ranking to power rating people cannot make that clear enough Literally, I can't make it clear enough no matter how many times I say it people will come at me This is here. Hello. I would like to introduce you to the model If you're listening on podcast that is that is the model And the model spits this out and the model is really good at what it does it wins money for us every year And I have it once a week spit out ratings not rankings Merit doesn't matter your record doesn't matter who you've beaten really doesn't matter in terms of how it assigns You a rating all it cares about is who it would favor against too. It's got power ratings for every team in America And we get the one through 25 from it every week. So That mean I agree with it There are a couple of very notable Exceptions my opinion versus the model even tonight last week was just outright egregious though So let's see how far the model has come back to the crowd here 25 through 21 UCLA still power rating their number 25 old miss drops seven spots to number 24 Kansas state climbs to number 23 TCU the model is just higher on Jesse is TCU ranked in the AP that you know of No, they're not okay. So the model's higher on TCU. It sees something in Fort Worth I don't but the model does and the model normally is ahead of the curve a little bit So we'll see Florida is number 21 And they're playing Kentucky this week We move on I got no huge issue with anything there North Carolina's at 20 Now if you if you watched Friday night lines last week the model was really really high on the idea That pit was gonna cover against North Carolina and they didn't so You know the model short-changed North Carolina last week. Maybe it still is Oregon state dropped five spots. I think the model looked and said You really let Washington state go off on you like that now. I looked and said excuse me model Where's Washington state it did not power rate them There are 25 teams the model would favor over Washington state right now again. This is not paid state sports book I don't have to post these numbers But the model kind of on an island there But I you know the more I look at Connelly's numbers and some of those other guys They kind of agree Miami's at 18 And Texas a nm's at 17 and yet again You need go back only two weeks three weeks now To remember that Miami hung nearly half a hundred on Texas a nm The model says don't care neutral field tomorrow Texas a nm still favored. I think by three tenths of a point So negligible, but I'm telling you I'd pick Miami in that game and I'd wager Uncomfortable amounts of money on it No agree to disagree It's just that normally you say that to a human. I'm saying it to a to an anaman object over here Clemson is number 16 They did not fall hardly at all I because the you know the post game win expectancy indicated Clemson Wins the game against Florida state more often than they lose it so we didn't punish them at all for that next up top 15 Utah's number 15 Judging by the reputation of this show I will just blindly assume we're too low on Utah I don't know how how low but we're probably too low on Utah LSUs at 14 they dropped seven spots One but dropped seven spots. It's tough around here Tennessee is to I don't get it. I don't ask me don't ask me Tennessee climbed nine spots up to 13 and I got to tell you something I tampered I did I tampered The models higher on Tennessee than 13 and even director Colin would probably come in my ear right now immunity and say Nope, you're right got to make us earn it. We don't belong in the top 10 The model had Tennessee in the top 10 I tampered I'm telling you I tampered and Normally that would get you some flat from Tennessee fans I think you're kind of giving me a golf clap right now you know Tennessee's not a top 10 team right now The model doesn't but you do Oklahoma's at 12 unchanged Notre Dame is at 11 Virtually unchanged we we kind of just got the performance we thought we would get from Notre Dame They they played right to the spread So any kind of odds making or power rating system worth its salt if you get the exact result that the odds indicate you should get means You don't change the team at all you don't bump them cause they lost because they played exactly to your expectation top 10 We have got Florida State at number 10 Um Gotta also tell you this the model has Clemson above Florida State By one tenth of a point so it has them tied And it had him that way last week and as I said they played a game that went to overtime The post game win expectancy lean Clemson which means nothing in the standings because a win is a win By that metric, but in the odds making community in the in the calculator community Doesn't look at it that way Well, I tampered again because I'm putting Florida State above Clemson. Sorry. I'm just doing it Michigan number nine Penn State number eight I don't argue with people right now who have Penn State is the number one team in the big 10 It's just that the model does not agree and I'm okay So I don't have a strong enough pushback to Tampa or a third time USC dropped to number seven Confusing game against Arizona State the model noticed the model punished. Bama's at number six Bama's a team you need to watch close this next couple of weeks It's a team that's capable of scaling Ignition could turn at any moment or the car battery could be dead at any moment Literally anything can happen with Alabama But you do not drop a team that talented in the odds making world you just don't Yeah, I know I know already the comments are gonna say Bama's way too high if this was the AP poll Yes, they're too high. It's not the AP poll. It's not a ranking. Let's go top five Washington's at number five too low for me I look at these teams. I'm gonna read five to one. So Washington's five Oregon's four Georgia's three Texas is two and Ohio states one man If I put Washington on the field with some of these teams that be terrified right now So Washington's five and that's that's all well and good. Here's the beautiful thing We get to see Oregon go to Washington in a couple of weeks. I think Two weeks from this Saturday Oregon goes to Seattle And maybe we go right along with them. We've never been to Seattle and with any tour before on late kick. So we'll see Georgia's number three. I said Texas is number two. Ohio State maintains their spot as the number one team And as I was walking out of Notre Dame Staddy and I told you this Sunday night. I'll tell you one more time Hat tip to the couple of fans in the stands there yelling Ohio State still number one J. P. Paul while I told you guys probably And now absolutely yes. They are still number one. I welcome comments. I welcome feedback I'm just telling you Don't be asking me how so and so is ranked over so and so these aren't rankings Don't be asking me how so and so with this record is ranked below so and so with that record these aren't rankings I don't care about record already explained to you the methodology if you don't like it great news They have the AP poll already ready for you the end Next up We got a question. I got a couple of more games to predict actually. I got one more game to predict I've got two more best bets to add so hang with me good pace tonight There was fear within the hallways of this building that the show was gonna go an hour and a half I don't think we're going quite that long tonight Sorry, I'm just thinking out loud right quick Yeah, I'm gonna take a sip from the chalice hold on There we go whale noise and a sip from the chalice Shut up, Jesse. So Um, this could be Jamie. It could be Jaime either way. It's a question. I don't like At J max 33 said how confident do you feel about your conference title picks And I know what you're trying to do here. You're trying to make me angry. You have successfully made me angry Let's just go right to the right to the sourest point and that is the big 12 Will not beat around the bush. It is time to face this head on I friends back in august out of boredom predicted Texas That's good, right? Texas is looking good. I predicted them to win the big 12 But I know what you're thinking out there. You were you saying hold on hold on hold on that's not the problem Who did you pick them to play against in the big 12 championship game? Oklahoma State Texas versus Oklahoma state. It was so egregious that our own graphics department accidentally put Texas versus Oklahoma on the graphic I had to make because they were sure I'm in Oklahoma. I didn't I wish I did. I didn't now. That's what you know publicly what you don't know privately is I Am the kid who tells his parents. You don't need to spank me. I already spanked myself and never works But I used to do it anyway And I also want to tell you guys you don't need to criticize me Yeah, I picked Oklahoma State to play for the big 12 championship. You don't need to hate on me You don't need to criticize me and I'm gonna tell you why Surveillance caught footage earlier today of what I've been putting my own self through if you're disappointed in me I'm Tim times more disappointed in myself Colin. Do we have the footage? This is how I've been walking around the building and if you're listening on podcast S-H-A-M-E those are the letters that spell the word shame plastered across my face I can't even see where I'm going Some would argue that's the state of mind that I made the prediction in to begin with I don't feel good about it. Jamie slash Jaime. I don't feel good about it at all So if we could just erase the state and I could just go Texas Oklahoma I will watch that game along with the rest of you in a couple of weeks. Maybe we see a rematch in Dallas I'm sure that to make the league office ecstatic that those two play for the conference title in the way out the door So I don't feel good about it In the ACC I predicted Clemson versus Florida State I predicted Florida State to win I still feel good about that. Okay, so the good news here is My conference champ picks are still fairing very well It's just their opponents like Clemson's not gonna play. I don't think for the ACC title We have still got half a dozen undefeated teams in this conference and not one of them is Clemson We've got Florida State obviously North Carolina Miami Duke Syracuse Louisville and NC State are all undefeated some of them haven't even played conference games yet. They're all undefeated Clemson's not overtaken all them. I don't think So I just need Florida State to win the conference at this point I guess otherwise. I feel terrible about myself come December in the SEC I don't have much to say right now because it was Bama versus Georgia And it's still on track to be Bama versus Georgia like there's still the favorites respectively until something changes LSU has to come to Tuscaloosa And Alabama's playing really good defense. I just assumed the offense will continue to find marginally better versions of itself They're the two odds on favorites to win the SEC championship right now. So I'm still good on that one We'll see the pack 12 was and continues to be the toughest conference to candy cap. I had Oregon versus UCLA Uh, UCLA let me down Saturday and when they went and lost to Utah only given up 14 and still losing tough Could be an issue here But I picked Oregon to win the conference. So they're right up there with USC is the And they're not co favorites USC is the slight favorite Oregon and Washington have the same odds In the number two position right now there and there's a lot of them two three of them actually bunched up at the top The demolition derby round robin like free for all scheduling chunk of pack 12 play is still to come. So all these teams are still gonna play each other Except for UCLA they dodge a couple of the big boys, but they already have a conference loss So we'll see how that works out in the big 10 Oh We got Ohio State win in the thing and so far so good there. They have not played Penn State or Michigan yet I had Ohio State versus Iowa And while you may think oh gross, I bet you want that Iowa pickback for hoops Everybody in the big 10 West has a loss And not all of them are conference losses, but everyone's lost Wisconsin's the only team over there That doesn't have a conference loss. It's only September 26th. This is a landfill of a division They face Ohio State by the way do the Wisconsin Badgers So I know that Washington state lost doesn't look as bad as it once did But man, it could still very well be Iowa. They got shut out last week Penn State had more total plays than Iowa had total yards That's playing legitimate competition. You don't face that in your division You just as I said, it's a landfill of a division right now and so Iowa could very well emerge from that Whoever it is, it's your it's your on it's like going to a Sarah McLaughlin concert That's what the big 10 championship game will be Guaranteed you might as well. We owe the piano on to the 20 yard line But in the meantime, we do have to play this thing out It's the last year of divisions thank the Lord in the big 10 They're watching us in Evans, Georgia, Cypress, Texas And guess which town has re-emerged on the late kick radar as of tonight Pocatello Idaho is back Where have you guys been for a little while we had check-ins In Pocatello Idaho it became the official outpost Of the show west of the Rockies and we appreciate you guys Got another game to break down here And then I got two added best bets appreciate you guys being tuned in live. Hey make sure Make sure you like the video there's several thousand of you in here and we're below a thousand likes And those are poverty numbers and we're not a poverty show It may cost nothing to watch, but we're not a poverty show I may wear the same shirt every week and Golf clap for the white t-shirt being back, but we're not a poverty show Oh, but there are smudges on the chala so we need to watch this thing after the show, but we are not I promise you we're not a poverty show Let's continue Florida versus Kentucky is a noon eastern kickoff on ESPN this Saturday and I know what you're thinking I think I know what you're thinking. I think you're thinking Oh Got a lean Florida here Seems like they figured some things out against Tennessee, but I know what I'm thinking And I'm thinking I'm terrified for Florida this Saturday You know why well first off they got to play Mark Stoops and Kentucky at home secondly You know, Florida's an underdog in this game right Kentucky's favored by two and a half Just a little FYI for the rest of the casual world out there that thinks this would be an upset if Kentucky won What did Florida figure out by the way? I sound so hostile towards Florida. I picked Florida to beat Tennessee What did we learn what did they figure out Well, they figured out how to put Joe Milton in a blender passing the ball in the first half which they did And by the time they got some things figured out it was too late in Florida never let go of the lead So they ruined Joe Milton in the first half they ruined Tennessee's chances to win that game Devin Leary It's the first shot to see him on the national stage this year Transfer from NC State Devin Leary Is a much more capable passer than Joe Milton here is the problem He hasn't necessarily shown that yet this year There's a great big but here like he's got the potential, but man I hear here's some trivia that'll throw him for a loop if you drop this on Friday night with your buddies Did you know the quarterback with the best completion percentage of all transfer portal quarterbacks is playing in this game? And his name's Graham Merz not Devin Leary What now? Yeah, I mean Graham Merz is average and throwing about three yards through the air down field Yes, I'll grant you that but that's what they're asking him to do so good for Graham Merz and give me more if you're Devin Leary also A 59.5% completion percentage with five picks puts him at 13th in the SEC he's been turning the ball over now Maybe they're just tightening things up because they've been playing inferior competition and that happens every year And maybe they'll play their sharpest game of the year. We'll Kentucky this Saturday But it's another moment of truth for the Florida ground game. I'll tell you that they ran it for I think 13 total yards against Utah Okay Sorry had to hiccup they came home couple weeks later and ran it very effectively against Tennessee well now You know what you get to face on the road you get to face statistically The best run defense in the SEC so far Now it has been against questionable competition So that's what the moment of truth is about Either Florida gets stoned at the line of scrimmage and Graham Merz has to win the game and I don't think you will or You got ETN there Clipping it at 6.7 yards per carry if he's sort of around that yearly average Well then Then you can do some business in Lexington What does the model think Colin because Kentucky's favorite by two and a half The model thinks that's slightly too rich the model says this should be a pick him Now billionaire is one and four on the road in his last five games Florida has lost eight of nine on the road. They are not nearly the team on the road. They are at home This has got to change at some point. It's got to change and so as hostile as I sound towards Florida It's just because I expect more and you're gonna give me more because I think you're gonna win Saturday I'm gonna take Florida to win I will take the points if you'll give them to me I'm gonna take Florida to win. I'm gonna take Florida. Obviously the cover And I think it's gonna be a very tight game Kentucky's got Utah vibes like anytime you pick against them It's a catch 22 because they will then use that as fuel And Sometimes if you pick them then people say oh here you go picking Kentucky again Kentucky's never gonna happen stop trying to make Kentucky happen And I might just please leave me alone and go start your own show So I'm saying Florida's gonna win. I'm saying Florida's gonna cover. This is not a best bet by any stretch I have no money on this game I'll just have eyes on that game But there are games I have money on and here are six of them So the other night ramen noodle express we jumped on four games early That's a good thing because the lines moved. So we're on Iowa State plus 21 We're on Fresno minus 22 and a half Nebraska plus 18 and a half And San Diego State plus 10 and a half We are adding as of tonight after some line movement Drum roll please brigam young plus one and a half believe that's a Friday night game And we're adding Wyoming minus 14 So Wyoming minus 14 and be why you big 12 member be why you plus one and a half those are the added best bets tonight I had an internal goal to get the show in in an hour And we're at an hour and 10 seconds and counting so not too bad. It's like five miles an hour of the speed limit They won't pull you over for that And so I appreciate you guys make sure you like the video subscribe to the channel one quick favor one quick favor Podcasts to a really good numbers Subscribe to it if you haven't I know a lot of you are listening right now and you're just downloading the shows great Keep doing that just do me the small favor of subscribing to the podcast Which does nothing to your experience, but it helps our internal numbers So thank you so much for that for direct comment for producer Jesse. I'm Josh Payt take care Have a great rest of your evening and God bless You