Welcome to Happens Next.
My name is Larry Bernstein.
What Happens Next is a podcast
which covers economics, political science, and culture.
Today's topic is moderate or neuter, the Supreme Court.
Our speaker is Aaron Tang,
who is a law professor at University of California Davis.
He's written a new book entitled,
Supreme Hubris.
How overconfidence is destroying the court
and how we can fix it.
Aaron wants the court to be humbler in its rulemaking
and do the least harm instead of trying
to solve society's most difficult problems.
Otherwise, if majority of the court remains dogmatic,
he believes that we should either pack the courts
or strip the court of its power.
Let's now begin this podcast with Aaron Tang.
Thank you, Larry, for having me here to talk about the book,
Supreme Hubris.
How overconfidence is destroying the court
and how we can fix it.
I just want to make three points here at the outset.
The first one is today's Supreme Court.
It is facing a legitimacy crisis
unlike any other in our lifetime.
Here's the second point.
The conventional explanation for why so many people
distrust the court is wrong.
The conventional explanation is partisanship.
It's the idea that the court is increasingly unpopular
because it is acted in such a nakedly partisan manner, right?
The Supreme Court and its justices have always been partisan
from the very moment of our founding, right?
The greatest chief justice in history, John Marshall,
when he was appointed to be Chief Justice in 1801,
he was basically a political party operative
for the Federalist Party and John Adams appointed him
for the explicit purpose of blocking anything
the Jeffersonian Republicans wanted to do.
And that's what Marshall did for 30 some years.
The Supreme Court under FDR, his new deal Supreme Court
was also highly partisan.
And yet during these highly partisan moments,
the Supreme Court actually grew in public standing.
So that's a just partisanship by itself.
It's not the problem, right?
There must be something else.
And so what I argue in the book is that what's different
about today's court is actually a basic psychological trap
that all of us are vulnerable to, myself included.
And that is overconfidence bias.
Today's justices are more confident than ever before
that they, nine unelected lawyers in their 70s,
sitting in a private conference room in Washington DC,
that they actually can answer all of society's hardest
problems for us with just the right lawyerly argument.
Overconfidence is problematic because
this is the leading behavioral psychologist
like Danny Coteman have shown.
Overconfidence is a force multiplier.
It takes other biases that we fall victim to
like partisanship and it makes them so much worse.
If you had humbler partisan justices like the justices
during the new deal era or like John Marshall,
those would be justices who could admit when
maybe they didn't know all the answers,
they could issue more modest, less harmful rulings.
But today's court has no break pedal like that.
There's no problem remaking the law in its image
and everything from gun safety to abortion to voting rights.
So that leads to the sort of last point, Larry,
which is once we diagnose overconfidence bias
is the root problem.
That path forward basically involves public pressure
with enough mobilizing and voting in mass,
with enough demands for real court reform.
Our best hope is that two justices today
will do what two justices did back in 1937,
which is the last time the court faced this kind of
legitimacy crisis.
In 1937 it was Chief Justice Charles Evans Hughes
and Justice Owen Roberts who responded to
public frustration with the court by embracing
a much humbler approach to the hard cases
to divide our society.
And in the process they became sort of
centrist power brokers on a legitimate court,
a popular court rather than minority justices
on a packed and de-widgetamized court.
The best hope today is that two of the court's members
can be pressured to do the same thing.
They can be pressured to do the least harm principle.
It admits that, gosh, sometimes in these hard questions
that divide the American people, there is no obvious answer.
Obscural lawyers, arguments can't settle it.
Both sides have good legal arguments.
And so the court does something very wise.
It says, you know what, we might get this case wrong.
So if we get it wrong, which side would be able
to fix our mistake more easily?
Let's vote against them.
That way we can ensure we're doing the least harm possible
by leaving meaningful options
in the hands of the actual people groups that are affected.
In your book, you describe how some judges
have incredible confidence in their own legal judgment.
You said that Scalia felt that he knew the correct answers
immediately and that Ruth Bader Ginsburg
was very sure of herself and her worldview.
Meanwhile, Kennedy seemed always baffled
going on these long walks with his clerks,
trying to figure out which way to vote.
Do you prefer justices by Kennedy?
Yes, in a way.
I do want to applaud Justice Kennedy
for sometimes being humble and modest in a way
that today's justices have a harder time doing
with maybe the exception of Chief Justice John Roberts.
But the best example I can give is Justice Kennedy's vote
in Planned Parenthood versus Casey.
Right, so this is in 1992.
Roe versus Wade has been settled law of the land
for 19 years, there's a right to abortion
that is guaranteed to pregnant people up
until roughly 24 weeks in pregnancy.
And in 1992, you have what seems like six potential votes
Republican appointees to overrule Roe versus Wade.
And Kennedy, along with Sandra Day O'Connor
and David Suter, they sort of surprise everybody,
they write this joint opinion,
reaffirming their right to abortion.
And what Justice Kennedy does in this opinion
is very emblematic when I'm describing the kind of restraint.
He says, gosh, you know, personally, morally,
I'm opposed to abortion, right?
Everybody knows Justice Kennedy
a long-time Catholic is personally pro-life.
But the legal question of what the 14th Amendment means
when it guarantees individuals a right to liberty,
that could include a right to abortion,
whom I'd say that I can mandate
for 300 million Americans what liberty means.
So maybe I'll do the next best thing,
as I will defer, I will trust the judgment
of all the justices who came before me,
12 Republican appointees in Planned Parenthood
versus Casey and Roe,
voted on the right to abortion,
nine of those Republican appointees
upheld the right to abortion.
He's like, maybe I'll look around the room
and trust these other smart people, right?
That's a kind of humility
that I think today's justices are sorely lacking.
Next topic is the Colorado Baker case.
Kennedy admits that there's a conflict
of two basic principles.
We want people to provide goods and services
without discrimination.
But Kennedy also was sympathetic
to the Baker's religious views.
He eventually voted for the Baker
because of the states and tagonism towards religion
was Kennedy's opinion sufficiently humble.
He was trying.
There were two possible ways
that the Christian Baker could have won.
One way was the way that actually just this past summer,
the Christian graphic designer won, right?
She won on free speech grounds,
which is the idea that the First Amendment guarantees
her right not to serve a gay or lesbian customer
because it would require her
to express a message she disagrees with.
That's not humble.
That's sweeping.
It's leading to all sorts of problems
gaping holes in anti-discrimination law.
Kennedy saw that.
He knew that would be potentially dangerous and sweeping.
And so he took a narrower route.
He voted for the Baker based on a case-specific ticket
good for this train ride only ground
because it turns out that somewhere earlier in the case,
a Colorado Civil Rights Commissioner
had mentioned something sort of off-hand about how
it's despicable when people use religion as an excuse
to discriminate against people.
And Kennedy said that actually this shows
that the state of Colorado is motivated
by religious hostility.
And so the Baker wins because of that case-specific reason
without sending a broader rule.
But I do think this is actually a really good instance
where we could talk about a least harm approach.
The least harm approach in this case
is not to say as Kennedy I think was thinking
and others have thought,
just make a gay couple go somewhere else to buy a cake.
It's okay if they're denied service,
if they're told they're second-class citizens,
by some storefronts because there are other storefronts
that'll serve them.
That doesn't work.
It wouldn't have worked for gay couples today.
It wouldn't have worked for the black customer
in the 1950s who after all could have gone
and got barbecued a black owned business
rather than the segregated white business.
But it turns out that the harm that the Baker suffers
is I am personally being forced to design something
that expresses a message I disagree with.
They can already avoid that problem.
All they have to do is contract out the project,
the cake or the wedding website to another employee
or an independent contractor,
say, hey, I'm not gonna touch this project.
I don't believe in it, I don't support it.
That's already okay under state law,
but none of the conservative justices
in the majority could see to that point.
And so we have the rule we have now.
Kennedy's decision does not end the dispute with the Baker.
Colorado found a substitute administrator
who is less religiously hostile to the Christian Baker.
And then Colorado demands again
that the Baker add the frosting to the cake.
The Baker fights back with endless litigation.
Kennedy kicks the can down the road.
What did Kennedy's humbleness accomplish?
What does the least harm principal mean
when you can't spot the baby?
Either the Baker adds the frosting or he does not.
It is a rule based on the court saying,
this is a hard case,
both sides have important credible arguments.
And so we are going to issue a rule
that ensures that the losing side has options
to protect themselves moving forward.
In your book, you use the example of the Kursan case
as a proper implementation of the least harm principal.
Tell us about it
and why you think it's a good model for jurisprudence.
And I'll start by saying this is a case
that I disagree with the policy outcome,
the end result that the court reaches.
It's a five four ruling conservative
Chief Justice Bill Rehnquist writes the majority opinion.
All four liberal justices are on this scent.
I disagree with the outcome.
And yet I still think this is one of the best opinions
in the Supreme Court's history.
So I'll start with that.
So in 1983, Nancy Cruz and she's 25 years old.
She's driving on the back roads in Missouri
and her car flips hits a patch of ice.
And she turns over in a ditch
and her brain is without oxygen for 12 to 14 minutes.
No hope for cognitive function ever to restore
her brain, this is what she's always going to be like.
She's in a persistent vegetative state for seven years,
no change, and her parents say,
you know what, Nancy would have wanted to terminate treatment.
We'd like to allow her to die.
And the state of Missouri, she's in a state-owned hospital,
says no.
You don't have clear and convincing evidence
that she would want to have treatment terminated.
We're choosing to keep her own life support forever.
So case gets up to the Supreme Court
and the Supreme Court says,
is there a constitutional right to die
that do process cause guarantee of liberty?
Does that include a right to die to terminate treatment
with a preponderance of the evidence
that that's what the patient would have wanted?
There are really important interests on both sides.
Legal issues are hard.
We don't know what to do.
So we're going to decide this case by asking
if we get this case wrong,
who would have better options for correcting
or avoiding their harm?
Okay, so the court says,
we're going to decide the case against
whichever group has better options
for avoiding its harm.
What if we rule against the state of Missouri?
We allow the Cruz ants with wrong medical treatment
for their daughter and she dies
and it turns out that was wrong, right?
Either it was wrong
because she didn't want to terminate treatment
or it was wrong because the Constitution
doesn't give her the right to do that.
Well, that's a mistake that nobody can fix.
Nancy Cruz ant will die.
Can't put that genie back in the bottle.
That's bad.
On the other side,
what if we rule against Nancy Cruz ant
say you have to stay on life support
and we're wrong?
Turns out she really wanted to have treatment terminated
or there is a constitutional right,
but we got it wrong.
Well, in that case, there are lots of options.
Lots of things that Nancy or her parents could do
to avoid her harm.
They can try to lobby the state of Missouri
to allow them to withdraw treatment with less evidence.
They can discover new evidence of her wishes.
All future people who are in similar situations, right?
They can execute living wills.
That's a mistake that Supreme Court says
that people can fix, they can avoid.
So that's what we're going to do.
State of Missouri wins.
Something amazing happens
eight months after the decision is issued.
Supreme Court issues this right to die decision
that divides America 50, 50 split.
Very few people are unhappy after eight months.
And the reason is,
if you were worried about being forced
to be on life support against your wishes,
you just execute a living will
and you solve that problem.
And Nancy's own case turns out there was new evidence.
There are these two women who saw the case on TV
and they said,
oh, actually, we had a conversation with Nancy
where she very clearly said you would not want to live
in a persistent vegetative state.
And even the state of Missouri said,
you're right, that's clear convincing evidence.
We'll withdraw our objection.
Nancy passed away peacefully less than a year
after the Supreme Court issued this decision.
Another example that you used for humility
was Chief Justice Marshall's opinion
in Marbury versus Madison.
The facts were that President John Adams
on his last day in office,
appoints Marbury to be a judge.
And he messes up a procedure
and Jefferson uses that mistake
to deny him the position.
Marshall issues an opinion in that case
that Jefferson wins,
but he includes an opinion,
the concept of judicial review
that the courts have the purview for this decision.
This is a hugely important decision
that increases the judiciary's power.
And this is why we learn about the court case
in seventh grade social studies.
How is such an important and sweeping case
an example of humility?
So I think the answer is to sort of quibble
with what Marbury actually stands for.
So I wanted to distinguish between judicial review
and judicial supremacy.
Judicial review is the idea
that when the Supreme Court interprets a law,
it gets to look at the constitution
and decide if it actually thinks
that statute is constitutional.
Judicial supremacy is the further additional post to it
that what the Supreme Court said
about the constitutionality of a law
is the final word.
The Political Branch's Congress,
the president states they cannot override
how the Supreme Court interprets the law.
Marbury is only about judicial review.
It is not a decision about judicial supremacy.
Actually the judicial supremacy cases
don't come until Cooper versus Aaron in 1955
and the United States versus Dickerson in 1990.
Those are cases when a state tried to overrule
Brown versus Board of Education
that's Cooper versus Aaron.
And both of those cases,
that's when the Supreme Court stood up
for judicial supremacy saying,
no, no, what we say is final,
you cannot override our interpretations of the constitution.
But Marbury only stands for proposition
that hey, when we're deciding whether
judiciary act of 1789,
which is the statute that's at issue in the case,
whether that is constitutional,
whether it's consistent with Article 3,
we have to make that independent judgment for ourselves.
We can't just assume that because Congress
passed the statute that it's constitutional.
So if you think that courts ought to interpret
the constitution, you agree with judicial review.
You might not also agree with the idea
that the Supreme Court's word is final.
I think at the case is humble
because John Marshall had a choice, right?
He very clearly has an outcome he prefers.
He would like William Marbury,
who's a federalist judge and appointee,
a fellow John Adams appointee,
to be a judge.
Marshall's humble because he knows he can't do that.
He knows the court isn't powerful enough.
He knows Thomas Jefferson won't hand over that commission.
And so he rules in Jefferson's favor.
He says you do not need to give Marbury the commission.
He is not validly appointed
because he brought the lawsuit directly in the Supreme Court.
The Supreme Court only has a pellet jurisdiction
in this case, not original jurisdiction.
So Jefferson wins, but what's interesting
is that William Marbury could have had his case hurt again
if he'd just gone to a trial court first
and then appealed from the trial court
up to the Supreme Court.
That case would have been right back up
in the Supreme Court the next year.
It's like one of the greatest mysteries
of common law history, why William Marbury never did that.
Let's apply your least harm principle
to the Brown versus Board of Education case.
Gosh, nobody wins when they say there are things
wrong with Brown.
So here's the win, which Brown is good.
It actually gets the least harm analysis right.
It rules against the side that has better options,
better ways for minimizing or avoiding its harm
after it loses.
That is to say white segregationist parents,
if they are told that their public schools
will need to be open to black families,
they have options so they can send their kids
to private school.
They can move to the suburbs or to the rural areas
where there aren't as many black families.
If they really are worried about having their kids sit
in classrooms next to black kids, right,
I obviously don't think that's a legitimate or credible
interest, but the whole idea of the least
harm principle is to say we're not here judging
who is morally right and who is morally wrong.
They had options.
Whereas black families win to Brown,
there are no private integration academies
that they can send their kids to.
Black families are by and large poor
than white segregationist families.
So there are just very few options for black families
to get access to integrated schools
other than for the court to step in on their behalf.
So the court gets it right.
It doesn't say that though.
It instead says there's only one possible right answer.
That right answer is based on social science evidence.
It's based on sort of evolving values
what we know to be true.
So that part of the opinion is not a least harm opinion.
I'm glad the court wrote the opinion of Rodin Brown.
It's a profoundly important thing for the Supreme Court
to say in a unanimous opinion that separate
but equal is inherently unequal.
It's a message to the American people
about what equality ought to mean that is powerful.
And the biggest weakness of the least harm principle
is that if you don't have a Supreme Court out there
declaring the one thing the law can only mean,
you might lose some of these really nice
eloquent statements about the visionary ideals
that we ought to stand for.
But of course, if you are a centrist, a moderate,
and independent, or a Democrat these days,
this court is not issuing any kinds
of those visionary rulings anyhow.
And so we might prefer an approach
in which this court is issuing decisions
that leave losing groups with options moving forward.
When I read your book, one of my takeaways
was that your big idea is that for the big political issues
of the day, leave it to the messy political process
because life is complex, and nine judges
should not use its sledgehammer to tell a society what to do.
In Brown, integrating the schools
is the biggest issue of that day.
After Brown, there were billboards in the South
that said impeach Warren.
The former Confederate States did not integrate their schools
until after the Civil Rights Act in 1966.
Why not wait for Congress to sell this inequity
using your framework of humbleness?
Did the court actually do more harm than good
by maybe sort of rushing in and trying to settle this question
for all of America, getting out in front
of where many Southern States in particular were politically,
and as you correctly pointed out, it was a decade
before many of the Southern States
were truly did integrate in a meaningful way.
And it's so hard to answer that question
because we have the benefit of hindsight.
So if you're telling me today that if the court does an issue
in Brown in 1954, it upholds plusy versus Ferguson,
but that within five years, Congress acts.
Congress requires equality, and that the public actually shifts
as attitudes, and it becomes more in favor
of integration than the court ordering it.
Then of course, I would agree with you.
And it seems like that's sort of the implication
of the way you frame the question
that you believe that is true.
And if you believe that's true, that is true,
then yes, I would prefer that.
I just don't know if it actually is true.
I can't go back in time into 1954
to decide what would actually happen.
Obviously, we can never look forward with certainty.
So I thought your key point is that the appropriate
delegation of decision making for big issues
should be in the political democratic process.
Court should be humble and lay low.
What am I missing?
I think democracy is broken in a lot of ways.
So one thing that we haven't really put our finger on is
sometimes the side that should lose in these big cases,
the side that has better options moving forward,
those options are not the political process.
Part of why I think Brown is right
is because the losing white segregationist parents,
they don't have the lobby, they don't have to go
past new statutes, they can just move,
they can send their kids to private schools, right?
They don't need to rely on democracy
when democracy is especially now broken.
So I don't wanna suggest that my theory is
that let's trust democracy approach.
It's let's trust the people who lose
to figure out whatever options are best for them,
whether it's the political process or private ordering.
Elected officials, certainly in Congress
and in many state houses are not actually responsive
to majoritarian interests.
You have a huge majority of Americans today
just to give some examples who support nationally
the right to vote.
They support an assault weapons ban,
universal background checks raising the gun age to 21,
a right to abortion through 15 weeks, right?
And yet because of veto gates,
because of partisan gerrymandering,
because of the corrosive influence of campaign finance,
currently the majoritarian interests
of the American people are not being actualized.
I was born in Illinois, which is a blue state.
And the state will likely have laws
that allow for abortion on demand until late in the term,
and that is more liberal than the nation as a whole.
I moved a few years ago to Florida,
which is a red state, that will likely restrict abortion
until early in the term with less than 15 weeks.
Different states will have different rules.
There isn't a consensus that is consistent
across the states.
Why does that mean democracy is broken?
Can you interpret this instead as a benefit of federalism?
That's a great question.
So I would say at the state and local level,
the lesson over the past year is that abortion law
is somewhat more responsive to the will of voters
than I would have guessed,
like most recently in Ohio,
where there was a ballot initiative
that was basically a code for whether Ohio
should be able to amend its constitution
to install a right to abortion.
The pro-choice position prevailed in that ballot
initiative by like 15 points.
We had another initiative in Kansas,
the pro-choice position prevailed.
And so it does actually seem like,
at least in some of these states,
voters who want there to be some right to choose
an abortion have been able to effectuate their will,
not true in roughly 13 other states.
So I think abortion is really hard,
not just morally and legally,
but I think it's also hard on my least harm principle.
One of the biggest critiques somebody could advance
against my approach is to say,
sometimes deciding which side will have better options
for avoiding its harm if it loses,
that is itself a hard question.
An abortion is an example.
It's not clear which side,
the pro-choice side or the pro-life side,
would have better options if it loses in the Supreme Court.
I generally think democracy is probably not the right answer.
I don't think it's right to say that pro-choice groups
can just go protect the right to abortion in state houses
or Congress because of these veto gates.
I would have loved to see somebody say on the court
that, hey, if we rule against the pro-life position,
we reaffirm Roe versus Wade and say,
there's a right to abortion,
that does not stop pro-life groups
from protecting unborn fetuses
and their view unborn children.
In fact, there's evidence that criminalizing abortion
only reduces the incidence of abortion
by somewhere between 4 and 10%.
Because what happens is individuals,
they'll engage in self-care,
they'll travel out of state,
they'll pay them abortion pills,
they'll have their abortions anyway.
So you're actually only saving a small number
of unborn children, unborn fetus from the pro-life position.
But there are options, right?
Wasn't really spoken about in the opinions.
We had a podcast a few weeks ago
about the case between Asian Americans and Harvard,
Chief Justice Roberts' opinions seemed humble
because it banned the racial boxes,
but allowed applicant essays
that included discussions of racial discrimination.
I think that's exactly right.
This is another case where I personally object to the outcome.
I would have liked it to come out the other way.
There was zero percent chance I was going to happen.
But the opinion that the chief writes
and the paragraph that you're talking about
is quintessential least-harm thinking.
It's quintessential John Roberts thinking, frankly,
which is to say, gosh,
I know there are going to be some people who are angry
that race can no longer be used in missions
in the way it has been for the past 40 years,
where if you check the box,
and you're an underrepresented minority
that this school can give you,
a plus factor in the application process,
so I'm going to throw them a bone.
I'm going to talk about what other options they have,
and it turns out the chief justice,
and apparently all the other justice and majority,
are okay with schools giving a benefit, a plus factor,
to an applicant who talks about how race
personally affected them.
In the conclusion of your book,
you mentioned that if the Supreme Court justices
do not start using humble or opinions,
then the solutions are court-packing,
or stripping the Supreme Court of its power
for judicial review.
Can you please expand on that idea?
The more credible Americans are in threatening
to strip power from the Supreme Court jurisdiction stripping,
or to pack the court, or to implement turn limits,
the more likely it is that the justice
as will actually become more humble
and tack back to the middle.
Because it's only when there's a credible threat,
maybe the justice is going to say,
no, we don't want that.
We'd rather be centrist sort of modest voices
on a trusted court.
I actually support all of the calls.
Every single reform proposal you suggested,
they are absolutely credible and worth talking about.
The best thing that can happen for the United States
is that we don't need to do that.
We don't need to pack the Supreme Court.
We don't need to neuter it
because the court has chosen itself
to become the kind of institution that deserves our trust.
This idea of one branch,
threatening another branch of the government,
or one party threatening its opposition,
often goes nuclear.
For example, the Democrats went nuclear
with ending the Senate filibuster
for federal pellet judge nominations,
and then the Republicans responded by ending the filibuster
for Supreme Court nominations.
Ultimately, Justice Gorsuch was confirmed
because of the end of that filibuster.
The benefit of the filibuster
in the judicial confirmation case
is it encourages the president
to appoint moderate justices
because confirmation requires political compromises
across party lines.
Why do you think that political threats
with the Supreme Court will have a happy ending
given that the recent judge filibuster experience
went sour?
The best case scenario is that the threats are self-defeating.
We don't need to actually carry them out
because the court is more modest on its own.
But if you're asking me, let's assume
that there's just nobody who will join the chief
in moderating now what do you think
on their own terms about the court reform proposals
on the merits.
I think some of these proposals are good,
and I think some of them are less good.
The best proposal of the ones we've talked about
is jurisdiction stripping.
For example, suppose we can ever carve out
from the filibuster enact a new voting rights act
that requires every single state
when it's drawing electoral maps
to have independent district think commissions
so that you have map draws drawing maps
rather than Republicans and Democrats drawing maps
picking their voters.
Congress should also include in that new voting rights act
a provision saying the federal courts
shall not have jurisdiction to review the constitutionality
of the Voting Rights Act.
There's almost uniform consensus
that that is within the explicit letter of the constitution.
Congress has the power to make exceptions.
This is an article three from the Supreme Court's jurisdiction.
Why is it a good approach?
Because even if you assume as we ought to,
the other side will respond in a tit for tat way,
which is to say Republicans when they have control of Congress
and presidency that they'll pass statutes
stripping the Supreme Court of power to,
that's something we can live with.
Republicans aren't going to strip the Court of jurisdiction
when they control the court.
So the symmetry ends up not being so problematic
and it solves I think a lot of the biggest concerns.
Unless excited about court packing
and term limits for different reasons,
term limits I think are great.
If you only apply it to future justices,
it'll be 50 years, maybe 80 years,
before the composition of the court changes
because of term limits.
We should still do it because I care about my grandkids
and my gray, gray grandkids.
We should still do that,
but it's not going to solve any of the legitimacy crisis
we have today.
If Congress denies the Supreme Court jurisdiction and new laws,
then it will have successfully neutered the judiciary.
Imagine if the Defense of Marriage Act
had included this jurisdiction stripping provision,
then the courts would have had no say
in the gay marriage debate.
Are you sure that's what you want?
I agree with you 100%, right?
This is why I actually think it would be better
for us not to have to strip the Court of jurisdiction
or to pack the court or implement term limits.
There are all sorts of unintended unpredictable consequences
that are bad.
It would be better to credibly threaten those things
and then hope the court moderates
so that we don't ever have to see
what those unintended consequences are.
Is the Supreme Court acting in a more moderate way
during this last term?
This past term is a sign that there are some conservative
justices who are willing to join the chief
in bucking what you might expect Republicans to do, right?
They rejected the Independence Day legislature theory.
They ruled against the State of Texas
when Texas challenged the Indian Child Welfare Act, right?
Appellate to keep provision of the Voting Rights Act
and apply it against the State of Alabama, right?
So there's reason to think that there is appetite
among some of the conservative justices
to tack back towards the middle.
I'm hoping they'll do it permanently.
They'll signal lasting philosophical approach.
But again, if I'm wrong and nobody's willing to do that, right?
Then we may have to start talking about
packing the court term limits in a real serious way.
All of them have some negative consequences.
I think jurisdiction stripping is less bad.
It'll have bad consequences maybe,
maybe upset about the defensive marriage act.
But liberals are never going to have a world
where they get all the outcomes they want
from the Supreme Court, especially this Supreme Court,
with none of the bad side effects.
What we want is a system that seems fair
where the losses that both sides have are tolerable
because they have other things that they can do about it.
That's what I think we need to be fighting for
a humbler court rather than a packed court
or liberal court or conservative court.
I was born during the war on court
and the liberal intelligentsia love the Supreme Court
with brown, giddy, and in the Miranda rights.
My high school textbooks referred to FDR's
court packing as foolish and inconsistent
with the Constitution's checks and balances.
And now a generation later,
progressives are ready to dump the judiciary.
This seems like an incredibly dramatic departure
from a vision of an idealized Supreme Court.
So I agree, progressives have sort of held up
this idealized vision of the Supreme Court
as brown versus board of education,
the neutral protector of rights that we care about.
And I agree that that is a piped dream.
I agree that we've sort of been tricked.
I'm less rosy about the ability of democracy
to solve the big problems that we face.
I don't think that democracy, as it's currently structured
in America, is up to solving our problems.
I think the fact that we're unable to pass a voting rights act,
we're unable to pass meaningful gun safety measures
at the federal level.
We've been unable to pass a right to abortion,
despite large, popular support for that,
is a sign that we can't just say,
neuter the Supreme Court, give power to the people
and everything will be fine.
Where that lands me is with the hope
that the Supreme Court will still sometimes intervene
when democracy fails, when it works to the harm,
or to injure, to screen an insular minority of groups.
And each episode with a note of optimism.
Aaron, what are you optimistic about?
Supreme Court justices, at the end of the day,
they're human beings, which means they have egos.
And they care about their legacies.
And so that means with every public opinion poll
showing record levels of distrust in the court,
every public protest about the court,
every credible call for court reform
that we've been talking about,
all of those things send a message to these justices
that they may have to choose between being laughing stocks
on de-legitimized courts or moving to center
in a legitimate court.
And so our best hope right now is that they get this message.
So two of the justices get the message
that we don't really need, more liberal court
or a more conservative court.
We certainly don't need a PAC court,
but we need as a humble court,
where we need a court that can admit
that it doesn't have all the answers
to these huge problems in our society,
and a court that therefore tries
to do the least harm possible.
That would be a court that reminds us.
Us, the American people that when the court issues
the decision we don't like,
we still have real options for fixing those decisions.
Because when it comes to the hardest issues of the day,
where if to fixing our endangered democracy,
it is us, we are the ones we've been waiting for,
not nine unelected justices on the Supreme Court.
Thanks, Aaron, for joining us.
If you missed last week's show, check it out.
The podcast was Oppenheimer, Babes, Bombs, and Beers.
The movie Oppenheimer is a blockbuster,
and I explored the science, the Bombs Morality,
and Christopher Nolan's filmmaking.
We had three speakers for this podcast.
The first was Jeremy Bernstein,
a physicist who worked with Oppenheimer
at the Institute for Advanced Studies.
Jeremy was the author of the book, Oppenheimer,
Portrait of a Denigma.
Jeremy discussed the scientific and engineering challenges
that Oppenheimer and his team faced to build the atomic bomb.
We were also joined by our what happens next
cultural critic, Darren Schwartz,
who found the humor in weapons of mass destruction.
And in preparing for this podcast,
I found that Billy Harriet, the assistant golf pro
at the lecture country club,
had made a road trip from Chicago to Indianapolis
to watch Oppenheimer on the IMAC screen
in its intended 70 millimeter film.
So he went deep into that experience as well.
I now wanna make a plug for next week's podcast
with Robert Kaplan, who has a new book entitled,
The Loom of Time,
Between Empire and Anarchy,
from the Mediterranean to China.
I first became acquainted with Robert
after reading his blockbuster book, Balkan Ghosts.
In this new book, he makes the case for realism
as an approach to deal with the greater Middle East
and the ongoing power struggle with the Chinese.
You can find our previous episodes
and transcripts on our website,
what happens next in six minutes.com.
Please subscribe to weekly emails
and follow us on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
Thank you for joining me.
Goodbye.