One stat to know for every team in Week 4 + TNF preview

It's Thursday, September 28th, I'm Matt Harman. Welcome to the Yahoo fantasy football show presented by Nerd Wallet. Oh boy, it's a hell of a day to talk ball and joining me to you just that is the one and only Dalton Daldon. Dalton is going on, buddy. Not much, man. I'm looking forward to talking football. Let's get right to it. There's a lot to go over today. Yes, there's a lot to go over today because it's stat nerd Thursday. You know what that means? You know how we do it here. We give you one stat that you need to know for all 32 teams. If you prep your lineup, if you even just prep your viewing strategy for the NFL for any given week without listening to this podcast, honestly, you're you're an idiot. You're doing it wrong. So you need to listen to what we have to say. One stat for all 32 teams. We go in order of the standings. Worst to best. That's their reward for being good. They get to get talked about at the end. Beautiful. We skip the Thursday night games for our preview at the end. We do this courtesy of Tankathon. Anyways, let's get right into it here. Number one, the Chicago Bears Dalton DJ Moore owns a 15.9% target share. So far, the season that is tied with Cole Comet for the team lead. It was honestly really tough to think of what to talk about with the Bears here. But I wanted to just do a brief check in on DJ Moore, who's had a very volatile season. I would say that if you were bullish on DJ Moore, which I was not coming into the coming into the season, just because I had volume concerns, you know, overall offensive volume concerns. But now his own volume is a little bit problematic, because this thing has been a bit spread out. I don't know. What is your temperature check on DJ Moore and this entire Bears offense right now? Despite being high on Justin Fields' fantasy value, I was down on DJ Moore's. I did fear the volume. I mean, the target was worth half as much as one was worth last last season for they say the chargers, just because the the marriages don't pass as much. And I expected Justin feels to take a step forward this year more development. I didn't see it getting this bad. So I'm not claimant. I saw this coming for DJ Moore. Can we talk about fields? I mean, I have a lot of questions. Players saying should we drop him? He had seven design runs last week. The chiefs are pretty good defense with Chris Jones. The schedule eases up now. I think fields is a by-low. I still ranked them top 10 this week against the Bronco's defense. This got annihilated against the run. But I'm open to you saying that I'm crazy and he's not going to be starting them on from out. Remember, remember, Field started really slow last season as well before he took off? And the running is going to be there. It's just so hard to not finish as a top 12 fantasy QB when you run like he's capable of. Yeah, just over the next four weeks, Denver, Washington, Minnesota, Las Vegas, and then even the chargers the week after that. So the next five, I would say there's only one intimidating matchup in there. And that's Washington, which is a pretty good past defense thing. Get after you up front. I mean, yeah, people were calling Dalton like the chargers Vikings game last week, like a loser leaves town game. It's like, well, these two teams, you're already losers. So no, no need to call it a loser, leave town game, especially just like who's the biggest loser between the Broncos and the Bears. Look, if fields can't do it in this game after that defense was just annihilated, like you said, and in such an embarrassing fashion, I mean, Vance Joseph, have you ever watched one one games worth the film on the Miami Dolphins defense or offense? And that was your plan on defense to stop that team. I have no idea. So I get it. I think I probably still ranked him maybe just outside the top 10 in quarterback rankings, but there's just so much wrong systemically with this team, that it's tough for me to have any sort of ounce of enthusiasm. You know, you've got two guys running the same route on a variety of plays. The spacing is off. The the field for the game play calling is off. You know, they don't run the ball particularly well. They certainly don't throw the ball well. So that's where it's tough for me to get any sense of enthusiasm here. Yeah, coordinators getting fired for weird reasons. It's not great in Chicago. I get it. It's it's looked really bad, but I just wouldn't be dropping. I know every every fantasy leagues different as far as depth, but I would not be dropping Justin Fields right now, pretty much in any format. Yeah, we could just bleed right into the Broncos stat here too, because my stat for them was they've allowed 7.2 yards per play easily the most in the NFL. And I know it's like, oh, that's obviously skewed by what we just saw against the Dolphins, but this has been a bad defense all year long. Like they weren't good week one against the Raiders. They got ripped up there. They weren't good in week two either. So, you know, Sam Howell. And we'll talk about Sam Howell later. He looked great against this Broncos defense and not so much in week three. So I don't know. The Broncos team overall, it's tough offense to figure out. Marvin Mims is their most explosive player. They don't play him. They're back. He'll still a committee. And now they're defense stings. So this just this whole team has felt like an avoid for me, basically like the last year and a half in fantasy. And it remains that way as well. Yeah. How about Denver giving up 70 points, but having their spread increase against Chicago after that. Pretty wild. How down these two teams are. What's up with Sean Peyton, man? What a disaster. I mean, he's been previously just one of the best callers in the league. Now the footage coming out of him saying that two was going to get benched last year. And then he drops a 70 burger on him. He's not playing Marvin Mims, leaving Russell Wilson in a blowout, bringing in. He brought in Vince Joseph. Now he's sniping at reporters. It's gone pretty, pretty poorly so far for the Sean Peyton era. Yeah. Not great. When you pitch yourself as like, I feel no sympathy for Sean Peyton because he pitched himself as like this football is our. He basically is the sheriff in town in Denver. He slams the other coaching staff pretty unnecessarily. This is the worst coaching job in NFL history. And now you are top three in penalties. And you just allowed 70 points. Like it's a bad look. You're right. It's not a good time for the Denver Broncos. Playman's more. Playman's more crazy. Yeah, it's crazy. All right. Number three, third team here, Minnesota Vikings. The routes run here is really interesting. I got kind of full four stats here, but it's all the same thing. One, Justin Jefferson has run the most routes in the NFL. KG Osborne has run the second most routes in the NFL. T.J. Hockinson has run the eighth most routes in the NFL. Jordan Addison is all the way down at 16th. Most routes run in the NFL among all pass catchers. This is just such like a passing war horse right now. And it's funny because Dalton, there's kind of this like growing group this growing rag tag band of people in the NFL and fantasy analysis. Like wanting to get Kirk cousins on the jets to save their season. And I get it. We've got we've got Garrett Wilson. We'd love to see something better happen with Garrett Wilson. But like, yo, this is such a good situation right now in Minnesota. Like let's for even just for pure fantasy purposes. Let's keep Kirk in Minnesota. Yeah. Shame on me for not ranking Captain Kirk higher in fantasy worrying about the lack of rushingers. Who cares? Only the chiefs have a higher pass rate over expectation. This is just a carnival for fantasy as we like to say. Last year, the second most routes run. I believe among all receivers. Jordan Addison's moving in the right direction. You look at his underlying usage each week. It's improved. But he was relying on the big splash plays earlier. But now it feels like it's confident. You can start him as a wide receiver three. What about regression hitting Minnesota hard all at once? They lost three fumbles all of last year. And I believe they lost their eighth of the year in the first quarter, seventh or eighth. They went 11 and 0 and one possession games last year and 0 and 3 to start this year. But it's great for fantasy. The Jefferson will start scoring more touchdowns and cousins. It looks. It looks like an awesome, awesome setup for fantasy. Jefferson left last week, looked like a possible serious injury. Thankfully, it was just cramps. Briefly, I'd like to to mention Alexander Madison. He's getting the work coming off a nice fantasy game. But he nearly lost two fumbles last week at a bad red zone drop and now cam acres enters the picture. So it might be a moment to try to to trade him in fantasy after coming off productive fantasy game. Yeah, I think that's definitely possible. Now that cam acres is in the mix, even though they traded him for like, you know, a bag of footballs. Basically is what those draft pick swap was kind of equivalent to it's clear. They just had no interest in playing Tai Chandler. Madison's second in the league and expected fantasy points. That role is just so so good. And you're right. You're right. He doesn't have to be amazing. But but to the point is if he even starts having a little bit of that sliced off when he's clearly not, you know, the other guys that are up there, like Christian McAfry and Tony Pollard, like he's obviously even and even Kenneth Walker is fifth. Like he's he's not even that level of talent. He might not even be as good as Miles Sanders, who's fifth. Excuse me, Kenneth Walker, sixth Miles Sanders, fifth. He might not be as good as those guys. So like if we start shaving off to cam acres, we're really starting to lose fantasy appeal for Madison. And it's crazy because we're talking about like the regression with the fumble stuff. This guy had had two fumbles his entire NFL career. And now it's like it's a consistent problem, maybe in the back of his head here. And last week, if you're looking at the box score, one wasn't counted, but for progress was whistled like super early. And it looked it looked like it could have, you know, he definitely was fortunate on that play. But you're right. The role is great. If acres is dust, then he doesn't have to be a great real life player for being very productive fantasy wise because man, that Vikings offense gets it done. The only thing I'll say about Jordan Addison too, I don't want to like raise the alarm bells. But the guy is having legitimate struggles out there, like consistently getting open against press man coverage. And you know, he's a smaller player. These were issues that he dealt with at the collegiate level. And that doesn't mean he can't still be a productive guy. But like there might be a reason why they're not giving him a full workload here to start his career. Because I think he's still growing out of that issue. And again, I'm not saying he's bad. I'm not saying that it's going to be an issue by the time we get to week 16, 17, you know, 18, something like that. But I think there just might be a reason why they're bringing him on a little bit slow, even though he was a pretty refined guy coming out of college. All right. Number four team here, Carolina Panthers, Andy Dalton has a 43.5% pressure rate so far this year. But he has a 12.1% deep throw rate. And he's thrown just one ball away so far this season. Meanwhile, Bryce Young, pretty similar pressure rate, 42%, but just a 5.6% deep throw rate. And he has nine throwways on the season. Dalton, I really don't want to react, overreact here to what I saw in week three. But I mean, am I crazy for thinking that this Panthers offense just ran a little bit more smoothly with Andy Dalton back there. Way smoother. Andy Dalton, remember last year, we'll put up really good on target numbers. All the nerd stats, he was really actually pretty accurate last year. And he looked great. DJ Shark got the area yards after Jonathan Mingo was concussed. Adam Thielin, such a great DFS play last week. He was also tackled at the one. I mean, he was close to putting up an even bigger stat line. And I expect him to have be active again. I mean, even if he's not breaking a million tackles or separating out of the slot there with Andy Dalton, this is a great rapport. I think Shark is possibly playable. But that's if Dalton remains starter in this matchup this week. If it's Bryce Young, then all bets are off again. And we just need to deal with his, you know, maturation process. But I they said one to two weeks originally. So I kind of took that, especially after way Andy Dalton looked. Maybe they'll give him one more breather. Yeah. I think they give him one more week just to, I mean, be a hundred percent. Like you're not going anywhere this year if you're Carolina. Like we need Bryce Young out there at like fully operational. It's just it's just disturbing that he like has really not shown that same like playmaker pizzazz that he did as a collegiate player. And you know, these guys are bigger, faster, stronger. It's going to take some time, I think, with Bryce Young. Like I think honestly, maybe they put too much on his plate too early. Like in training camp, they're talking about him, making all the checks at the line. Like being where he needs to be mentally, even like an NFL veteran, even though he's a rookie, but he is a rookie. And I think he's been slow to catch up physically. He's been slow to catch up mentally so far this year. Not that we can have any conclusions after three weeks. But one mental note I've already made myself is just I'm going to be far more agnostic with rookies entering here. I'm just not going to fall for any hype one way or the other. And it's just these GM's don't know what they're doing either. But man, just the way that CJ Strauss looked versus Bryce Young, my guy JSN. I mean, it's just it's very much a guessing game. But again, things can change. But I'm going to try to remain more agnostic when it comes to the rookies. Here's a perfect transition to a rookie we should be talking about right now. Los Angeles charges 15 here. Routes runs so far on the season, Keenan Allen, 112. Mike Williams, who we know is now out for the season, 94, Josh Palmer, 80, tight end Gerald Everett, 52, not far behind the second tight end, Donald parham at 46. All the way down here is Quinton Johnson, the rookie wide receiver at 36. Routes runs so far the season. So Dalton, I ask you now that Mike Williams is out for the year. What are you expecting in terms of the split between Josh Palmer's picking up the slack or Quinton Johnson picking up the slack? Another carnival offense whose past rate is way up with no Eccler man, Josh Kelly. That was a rough one last week. Yeah, bad injury for Mike Williams. The answer is Josh Palmer short-term, but not only just long-term, but if I had to pick right now, I'd rather hold Johnston. And especially if you don't need help right now, I think the upsides greater, you can speak more on this than me. Palmer is just a guy. He'll put up five for 60, but you don't think he's very good at all as a route runner, correct? And Johnston, I know he was this project, so it may take patients into next year, but that's my thinking. If you need help now, get Palmer. But if I had to choose, and I for a bench spot, I'd rather Johnston. I will say the good thing about Palmer right now, and obviously injuries are never good, and it stinks from like Williams. But I think he is much more suited to take over Mike Williams's role as opposed to last year when Keenan Allen got hurt, and they kind of had to thrust him into that position. And yeah, because of his route running and stuff like that, he's not at all equipped to be like a short and intermediate level separator. And he's not, I mean, he's not going to be a great separator at any level of the field, but if you're just asking him to run deeper routes and like win contested, that's more of his strength. So he can be what like a 70, 75% approximation of what Mike Williams gave you, which is that's a pretty steep downgrade if you're taking 30% off of Mike Williams. So that's where I feel about Josh Palmer. But yeah, Johnston is interesting because he's just so raw, man, you know, like listen to Daniel Popper on the athletics podcast saying like they were always intending to bring him on slow because they knew he was a project, even like getting him to line up in the right spots was going to be a project is the way Popper said it. But like all that stuff is out of the window now. Um, yeah, I mean, I was watching a little bit of Johnston while I was charting Keenan Allen recently, and it just like he's slipping all over the field. He just is not where he needs to be like. So I definitely think some patience for the next few weeks is going to be and look, all we could be idiots and like he could come out and have like a big game against the Raiders. That's totally possible. But I would say patience is going to need to be required for, you know, the next few weeks and even maybe deeper into the season for Quentin Johnson. And Keenan Allen, you almost can't rank high, rank high enough in PPR. Donald Powerham, you mocked me openly when I mentioned his name five weeks ago on his podcast. And yet here he is, I believe he's a fifth or six fantasy scoring tied in yet on everyone's benches, including my, I mean, or waiver wires. So not helping people, but still I just had to circle back. Sorry. No, you definitely had to dunk on me for that. But I think look, I know he's like basically it's all tight end, you know, production is, is, is chacy. It's fluky stuff like that. And even with him, it's, it's mostly touchdowns here. But this is a great offense. And he's on the field almost the same amount and running routes is Gerald Everett. So why, if you need tight end help, I, I do think he should at least be someone on the radar here. Speaking of the Raiders who they play this week, number six Las Vegas Raiders, the Raiders ranked 14th in run blocking grades and fifth in past blocking grades according to PFF. And Dalton, I was stunned to see this because after watching that game against the Steelers, and look, that's mostly the Steelers and TJ Watt, like these guys are great up front. You know, I was looking for like, all right, how do I show that the Raiders offensive line is struggling? And then I went through like these metrics. I looked at like PFF's past blocking efficiency, other metrics. You can't really find a lot of evidence that the Raiders offensive line is not good. And again, Steelers, that's one thing. But they played the Broncos in in week one, you know, and the bills in week two, they're, they're somewhere in the middle there. They're probably closer to the Steelers than they are to the Broncos in terms of defense. But I don't know. I thought that was really interesting because I was in my mind when I'm watching Josh Jacobs play, it's like, well, he seems to get contacted a lot early. But maybe it's not an offensive line issue. Yeah, conversely, they're bottom three and pressurate on defense. That is interesting. I wouldn't have guessed that for offensive line. Jacobs, by the way, no runs of more than 10 yards. So far this season, this is all interesting news for Jimmy G is a possible, I mean, maybe super flex more so than than or a DFS play. But he's going to throw more than he was in San Francisco. And this week would have been a nice possible shoot out here against the chargers indoors with the faute atoms and Jacobi Myers, who means, by the way, is targeting like 88 percent of the receiver targets when they're all in the field. It's crazy that it's awesome. But unfortunately, Jimmy G's dealing with this concussion issue. And it might be Brian Hoyer to ruin all the fun short term, but a no conno, you know, looks so good in the preseason. But Hoyer may be a short term problem for everyone involved here. Because if it's Jimmy Healthy Jimmy G, this could be almost a replica of last week's Vikings Chargers matchup. I mean, it could be a fun one for fantasy. Yeah, I was trying to think because someone asked me during the game on Sunday, where does Davante Adams and Jacobi Myers rank for wide receiver duos? And, you know, Jacobi Myers is a pure two, but he's a really, really good two. He just is not quite the same as like, you know, the Eagles have Davante Smith, who's like a one B, you know, he's not as good as T Higgins and Cincinnati. He's not as good as like Jalen Waddle in Miami. But he's a really, really good player. And he's been awesome so far. So yeah, it'd be great to see Jimmy Garoppolo out there, but probably not this week. And yeah, if you're the Raiders, like, why not just play a no conno? Like, what do you have to lose at this point? You're not going anywhere. You're, you're, you're not the seasons out. The season's basically already over for the Raiders, like, at least to see what a no conno has, but probably won't get that. We're probably get Brian Hoyer. Number seven, Houston Texans. You mentioned CJ Stroud dude. This guy's been awesome. CJ Stroud leads the NFL with 334 passing yards between 10 and 19 yards down the field. That intermediate area has been so critical for the Texans and Dalton. There's so many ways that we could talk about why CJ Stroud has been impressive. But the fact that it's been not like little dinky, dunky, gadgety, like short stuff, the fact that he's just eating with Nico Collins running in breakers with Tank Dell, eaten on out routes and like deep corner routes like he had against the Jaguars. That is what's so impressive to me about CJ Stroud's start among a variety of things. CJ Stroud is the truth, man. He's just been so impressive. He's doing a lot of it on third downs and obvious passing situation without much help from his running game. Just going down field. Look at the film. It looks just awesome. He's pulling so many dimes. Damien Pierce, the bad news. Damien Pierce not only is losing passing down work previously to Mike Boone, but now clock killing work to Devon Singletary. So now it's like game script positive bad, game script negative bad for them. He's too good to be treated like this. This pains me to ask you this as a Nico Collins guy, but rest of season Nico Collins or Tank Dell, have you seen the first three target percentages? I mean, they're going on opposite directions from week one and Tank Dell just looks so awesome. I have these guys in the same tier, but I have them like between 31 and like 38 in terms of rest of season. I think they're close, but I think Nico is still probably the guide prefer. But no, they're legit. Both of them are really good. And I think they can coexist because they're so dissimilar, roll wise. Like Nico's a pure X and Tank Dell. They've used kind of at all three positions, but he's still primarily an outside guy. Despite the fact that he's sub 170 pounds. And he's such a good route running. Such a good technician. And he's so explosive, dude. He's like, he I made the comparison. I think I don't know what I don't know what show it was on at this point, but he's kind of like John Brown a little bit back in the day. And you know, I loved John Brown. So high praise. Yeah. Yeah. No, he's had a couple at least one touchdown nullified too. He's just like fantastic. I think most of his production has come out wide, which is just remarkable for his size. But either way, it's good to have two awesome options for CJ Stroud. What a what a way to wait into the league a little different than Carolina's receivers over there. But but man, Stroud, Stroud's job and dimes to no matter who he's throwing to. Yeah, he's he's pitching heat out there. Number eight, Tennessee Titans in the AFC South, not so fun. And this was one offensive line set that's not going to shock anybody. Tennessee actually might shock people that they're 31st. Tennessee ranks 31st and PFF's past blocking efficiency somehow not dead last. Not only can they not pass protect with Ryan Tanehill back there, which is basically like, okay, you can forget about everybody else in this offense, except deandre Hopkins from a past game standpoint. But even from a run game standpoint so far this year, you know, Derek Henry, 17 attempts per game that's down from previous years, game scripts, that's going to make a problem. The fact that TJ Spears seems to be giving him something that's going to be a problem. I don't know, where are we at with the Tennessee Titans offense who might well have the worst offensive line in the league? I'm saying start Derek Henry and DFS this week. I know Spears is out snapped in, but the bangles allowing 5.1 yards per carry, bottom five and Russian defense DVOA. As you said, they can't pass protect. So a game script may be more favorable since an out of you off a short week. I'm going back to the well of Henry and treating him like a borderline top five fantasy back this week. No, if he doesn't execute this week, then it's panic time. Traylon Berks underlying usage much better last week. John, your Hopkins is clearly not right. Berks is, you know, if you're desperate for a flex, actually, think he might have a nice game this week. Good luck to you. No, all right. You're not in on that one. All right. What about the Henry pushback? But you think you're you think that the decline is is real here or can he not have a vintage 102 TD game? I mean, I hope not, but the fact that he's on the injured report with the foot, that's that's what's got me a little little sketched out here. Is it a footer? Is it a toe? You know, whatever. He's he's on the injured report. So I'm hoping he's just 100% and that's not been why like they've started to mix in spears. But I think they mix in spears. It could be good for Derek Henry's like long term health too. So no, I mean, he could look. I'm hoping he can just get right at any moment because I love Derek Henry. I just think this start to this season between the offensive line issues and the overall offensive effectiveness when they've been playing a team that's not the L.A. Chargers. It's got me a little spooked there. I'll just say that. Yeah, no, Tanya Hills is struggle. It hasn't been great so far for Tennessee. Number nine, Cincinnati Bengals. You just mentioned them. Joe Burrow's completion rate over expected ranks 34th among all quarterbacks. And dude, watching them on Monday night, it felt that way. I know they won the game. I think the Rams probably could have done a little bit more to win that game. That was that was a tough spot for the Rams there, especially when they started losing offensive lineman. But and Jamar Chase was awesome. Jamar Chase is just like a human highlight real. He's an offense all to himself. There was T Higgins drops. I get all that, but I'm watching Burrow in that game. And it's just like, dude, they can't run an offense right now when Burrow's playing this way. Burrow does not look right. Obviously, I believe it was 30 of 31 snaps in the first half. We're taking a shotgun. So I mean, this kind of has to limit the team's ability to run as well. But let me let me ask you, I was think I'm going to hype Jamar Chase and my DFS column this week. There's a lot of good receivers. You're going to have to pick from in DFS this week, not just Hill and Jefferson, but digs in a big match up in Allen and Adams there. But Chase faces the past funnel Titans defense and Higgins is banged up. He left the end of that game with some sort of injury. And obviously Chase looks so, so good there. And he's going to start scoring some more touchdowns. What are your thoughts there? Obviously, don't need to tell me that he's good, but how concerned are you with Burrow moving in the short term six days later after playing? Yeah, that is definitely concerning. You know, he said he didn't tweak it at any point during the game, Joe Burrow with the calf. But I think the fact that they got Jamar Chase moving around so much, I think he had more slot snaps and he just had at any point since like the first week of the 2022 season. Last week against the Rams, that's really good to see and they can do some designary stuff with him to get him free and get him big plays because that's really what they need. Like they need him to be adding extra stuff on top of whatever Burrow can provide at this point. So no, I'm with you, dude. And yeah, watching the, oh my god, watching the tight past defense is just it's so bad. It's so bad. So it's perfect for fantasy past catchers. Yeah, like and that's another thing too. The Bengals are not going to be able to like necessarily mount a consistent steady run game with Joe mixing at this point, even though he's looked fine so far. So they'll have to like throw short passes to Chase who still he's had a few big plays with, especially against the Rams on Monday night, but we haven't seen him rip like a huge long yak play. That could come at any moment. So I'll sign off on that take. Okay. Number 10, Jacksonville Jaguars Trevor Lawrence's 8% drop pass rate leads all starting quarterbacks according to fantasy points data, but he trails only to an accuracy rate so far this year. Dalton, the more, you know, we talked a lot about the Jags on the people's panic meter podcast earlier in this week. You know, I've thought a lot about them. Been watching Calvin Ridley, you know, for reception, perception and stuff. There were a thought about it and more like, you know, this stuff with the Jags, like it's a lot of random stuff like drop passes and like there are a couple big plays away every single game. Does it just feel like it's all just going to get right at some point or am I being naive? I wrote in my numbers, numbers do lie column last week that the Jacksonville offense is due for regression. And it only got worse the following week. More drops and craziness. First of all, let me say that 41% of the people were knocked out in my big $9 million survivor pool with Jacksonville. And almost 75% is out of the pool in the first three weeks, which was pretty wild. The carnage day for sure. Where do we begin? Trevor Lawrence has nine on targets throw throws that are dropped easily in NFL high. He leads a league and accurate throws at 10 plus yards down field open receivers. It's just crazy that Jags offense has lost 15 expected points because of drops this season. There's somehow top 10 and success rate, but 28th in EPA per play. So yes, regression is coming. Calvin Ridley leads the NFL in drops. He dropped a 30 yard touchdown last week. I think all of his drops might have been possible touchdowns, including a couple that don't count as drops in the in zone. So it's just been wild and weird. And that one game was full of heat that sent more than a hundred people needed to be treated medically. So I'm still bullish on them moving forward. But it's been such a weird start. And I hope Calvin Ridley's healthy. I don't know if God is the reason because he's, you know, he got banged up a couple of times and he's hobbling out there. But it's been frustrating. My guy Travis ETN is the second most routes run among all running backs this year. He also left banged up last week. Hope he's okay. Bigsby continues to make mistakes. Yet gets rewarded with goal line carries anyway. But I digress. It's been really frustrating if you're rooting for the jaguars so far. And I expect them to be much better moving forward. It's good that you highlighted ETN though because I think his role has been quietly like not discussed enough in fantasy. And you know, if you're just talking about running backs, you want rest of season. I don't think you can come up with more than maybe like five, six guys that you'd rather have rest of season. So he's in a really good spot. That's a good one to highlight. 11. New York Jets. By the way, now they have Back to Back London game. Sorry, interrupt. But so we're scheduled. I mean, they got to go now to London for two back to back games. It's interesting. It's going to be an interesting start for that franchise. Sorry, good. Just what you want. Again, when things are not going your way, you want to make nice cross, you know, road trip across the world. That's perfect. Number 11, New York Jets, Zach Wilson ranks 34th in EPA per play. I'm on quarterbacks. So Trevor Simeon to the rescue. The Jets signed Trevor Simeon on Tuesday, Dalton. Well, I mean, what do we make is Trevor Simeon enough to say, how can they keep running out Zach Wilson, bro? Like I feel so bad for Robert Sali's got to be up there talking about Zach Wilson. Come on, man, let's anything else. Trevor Simeon literally cannot be worse than this. Yeah. John Lagazza tweeted and tagged me. I think just so we can read off his tweet on this. How bad Zach Wilson's been. But it's 34th in EPA per attempt. 34th in EPA per dropback. And just 34. Hey, by the way, there are 32 teams. He sat himself last week. Did you see that? He did. He's been moving and went down. It's it's not great. Yeah. Simeon, you look at his career numbers and it's it's better. The TD percentage, the I and T percentage lower, the YPA. It's I think Simeon's probably going to be starting sooner than later. And it sucks for Wilson. But he's just doesn't look capable of playing NFL quarterback. No, not at all. All right. Number 12, New England Patriots who are the other. Oh, sorry. You know, Lee's NFL and Yars per touch. Who? Oh, breeze hall. It's breeze hall, right? Yes. And he's quietly getting more snaps. So if we can just have a C minus QB, come on. There's life breeze hall led the NFL and Yars per touch last year. And he currently is is the leader now. I honestly, yeah, don't just a functional NFL quarterback on this team. And we can at least consider using these players and fantasy because how can you like Scott said it best about Garrett Wilson? Like if somebody came to you on Sunday and is like, Hey, you either roll the dice and you get whatever you get with Garrett Wilson, or I can guarantee you he's going to get five catches for 48 yards. Like you take the five for 48 if you had to play him. 100% yeah, no, it's it's not good. All right. Number 12, New England Patriots, Ramondra Stevenson ranks 11th and expected fantasy points according to fantasy points data. I don't know where I stand with Ramondra right now, man, because you know, the Zek usage is at least there. Ramondra is just I don't think he's moved the needle enough to like ice out Zek completely in the backfield. This offense plays really fast, but doesn't really go anywhere. I don't know. Where are you out with Ramondra right now? Yeah, Zech routes runs of drop. He's not getting the work in the in the red zone, but this is a revenge game. Yeah, Ramondra, I'm just kind of the same as I was before the season. It's he's going to be a solid type RB two each week, but the upsides it's not quite there with the offense and the player he's capable of being. Number 13, Arizona Cardinals, Marquis Brown ranks 13th in ariard share among all pass catchers and 14th in target share. Love seeing this from Marquis Brown, because you know, I think he's like kind of an underrated player. And Josh Dobbs, even though his own damn team doesn't have his jersey for sale in the team store, he's been pretty good so far for the Arizona Cardinals. So I think Marquis Brown is like on the wide receiver three borderline basically every single game. I'm not sure what's going on here is expert consensus ranked is 49th and two weeks ago is a 26th receiver. In last week, he was the 19th receiver and the 49ers opponents have by far the highest pass rate over expectation this season. It's not even close. So yeah, I mean, I have him as a borderline top 25 wide out top 30 this week. So even I don't think it's going to come in garbage time either. By the way, I think this spread is wildly. Maybe I'm just panic mode is possibly using 9ers and survivor, but 14 point spread. You realize this is a matchup between two top 10 teams in DVOA. The Cardinals are first in the league rushing yards before contact cars are first in the league. They just ran all over Dallas. I mean, yeah, I don't know. I'm a little I'm the Niners of this look ahead game that Colin producer has been talking about Sunday night football against Dallas. Dallas may have been looking ahead, by the way. Niners fall. I mean, this is a trap classic trap game if you want to fall for that stuff. And the Niners 14 point spread to me seems really high for the way this Cardinals team is playing. Yeah, Cardinals are playing hard, man. They're given the big old middle finger to tanking. So we love to see that from John Ganon and the boys there. You mentioned the Giants. They thrashed this team on Thursday night last week. The New York New York Giants number 14. Daniel Jones adjusted yards per attempt by week week one zero point five. That was against the Dallas Cowboys at full strength week two against the Cardinals, which is we're saying the Cardinals are not a joke. All right, the Cardinals are not like a complete joke of a team 8.5 adjusted yards per attempt week three two point nine against your San Francisco 49ers. And that so those are two of the three best defenses in the NFL. The the Cowboys in week one, the 49ers in week three, and then the Browns are up there as well. I think those are the three best defense in the NFL right now. So I think, look, the Giants are not a good team. They're not going to be that fun to watch. But I still think Daniel Jones has much better days ahead in fantasy. Yeah, he's going to be scheduled dependent. It appears he's always struggled more inside his division. But I have him as a top 12 fantasy QB this week, easily no problem. Seahawks have allowed this to quarterback. Matthew Stafford, 334 yards, Jared got 323 yards and three touchdowns and Andy Dalton 361 yards and two touchdowns. So yeah, Danny Dimes top top 12 top 10 fantasy QB in week number four. One day of Robinson getting back there is interesting because Paris Campbell has given him like nothing as a slot receiver and immediately eating up the targets immediately. Wondale, immediately. He's definitely on the cadarious Tony scale of like all the targets per route run. Bros are going to always go crazy over Wondale Robinson because it's like designed stuff. But still I do I do think Wondale is like a good player in that role and like a much I mean, a much more technically sound player and reliable player than cadarious Tony. So I don't mean to put cadarious Tony on Wondale Robinson like that. But I but he's a boost for this offense because go ahead. You've always been down on Paris Campbell and he received a lot of hype like he was getting all the looks and you just look so right. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Can't the small shifty receiver who's not a good route runner is always the MVP of OTAs. Always the MVP of OTAs. All right. Number 15 LA Rams. No other running back played a freaking snap for the Rams on Monday night other than Kyron Williams against the Cincinnati Bengals. But it didn't go very well for Kyron Williams, I wouldn't say. So where are we at with him after this game against the Bengals? I mean, I used him as one of my conviction picks last week saying with this volume, he's a top 12 fantasy RB moving forward. But will this volume stay if he continues to make these mistakes? You would cost an interception against the Niners last week could have been another one. He's not rush yards over expectation. I know he's toward the bottom too. So he's not exactly lighting the football field on fire when he's out there. But if he remains in this role, he's going to be awesome for fantasy managers who picked him up for free. But I mean, there's no one else there either really behind him. Is Zach Evans? I mean, I have him in super deep leagues, but he was in healthy scraps. Ronnie Rivers is getting no snaps. So on one hand, you love it. On the other, you worry that the play, playing time may dissipate if the skills don't improve. Yeah. Kyron Williams definitely down towards the bottom. He's in the, he's in the Alexander Madison zone, which is not where you want to be from a rush yards over expectation standpoint. But a million targets and he's getting everything. I mean, not just volleyball, I mean, just everything, the goal line, the targets, everything. I was, I know I said on this podcast last week that yeah, Kyron Williams, like a space back. He got like 10 targets against the Niners, right? You know, they run, they run on a ton of plays. They want to throw the ball. That's all great in theory. And I think Matthew Stafford can execute that. But the moment they had an offensive line injury against the Bengals, I mean, that was a stone cold disaster. And it felt like we were right back in 2022 RamZone. So this, this does remain a very fragile ecosystem for Kyron Williams and the boys there. Impressed the two two out. Well, he can play. Yeah, he can definitely play. Number 16, New Orleans Saints, James Winston ranks 25th in EPA per play among week three quarterbacks. Dalton, are you one of these people that's like excited to see James Winston start games to New Orleans Saints? Cause that's probably what's going to happen. We're a little revenge game here in week four against Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Yeah. I mean, who doesn't love a little James Winston in their life? I'm enjoying the gifts this week. Sure. Okay. Fine. What about their defense? Oh, let's, let's turn the the subject a little. The New Orleans Saints have not allowed 20 points in a game since week nine of last year. So very impressive defense there. Let's hope David. Let's David. Derek Carr. I can't believe I did that. Leave that in. Derek Carr returns ASAP. Yeah. Same. They are just working with like one brain, like a hive mind back there on defense that communicates so well. And we get Marshawn Lativer more versus Mike Evans. Oh, yeah. Like a really nice start to the season. So this St. Stephen's playing as well as it has, you know, James on the other side here, Baker Mayfield. Do we get, we weirdly got like the the very middle of Baker Mayfield, usually in a prime time event. I'm expecting like either great Baker Mayfield or like Garbo Baker Mayfield. So maybe this is the week. We get a massive of a Mayfield performance, a mess of a James Winston performance and like Mike Evans and Marshawn Lativer are full on like boxing at the logo in the middle by the end of it. That would at least be entertaining. For sure. Imagine drafting Chris Godden over Mike Evans this year. Shut up, Dalton. Anyways, number 17 here. You can glow to glow to a little more about Chris Godden of Mike Evans. I didn't draft either one of those guys, but I am, I am fully like, I got to call Mike Evans and like ask for forgiveness. I feel so bad about not draft given one single league and not listening to Dalton Dalton, who's much smarter than me. But anyway, no, no. Yes, yes, yes. I'm giving you credit on this one because you tried. You tried to talk me into Mike Evans. You really, you hand it out. I think you even might have quoted my own data back at me and I was still like, no, Baker Mayfield's not good enough. I don't know when I'm going to learn the lesson that like if these guys aren't Zach Wilson, these great receivers can play with these guys. Godden will be better, but he's missing those designed targets and I mean, Evans, third most areas per game last year. He just looks awesome to those catch that catch that the night was just so sick. Number 17, Tampa, Bucksell, we're talking about them. Not going to talk about the receivers here. Among the top 20 running backs and rush yards, Rashad White has the second fewest percentage of his carries to go for five plus yards. Jerome Ford, who is a backup running back, obviously, is the lowest. Dude, Rashad White. I mean, what are we doing here? He was dead last in rush yards of expectation last year, but again, there's no one else there in the volume. So I don't know these dead zone backs. I mean, you can't be, I don't know. On one hand, you're happy and the other, you're worried. Yeah, like on a, can you play the Bears on a weekly basis? Otherwise, it's just like it's a very matchup dependent, for sure. Yeah, exactly. And hopefully you didn't play him against the Eagles, where he got a safety. Finally, I mean, what is it with NFL rest this year? Like, unless Gardner Minshu runs out the back of the end zone or end zone or, you know, Rashad White has tackled like five yards deep in the end zone, it feels like we never get safeties anymore. Yeah, there've been a couple of close calls. I thought we're sure we're going to even a hold in a game over the weekend. And they're just, yeah, they're giving the benefit of it out to the offense. The Michael Parsons hold. I mean, dude, that was it. 100%. Thank you. Yeah. Yeah. The defensive players should, I mean, come on, like restore the defense at some point. This is absolutely outrageous. Honestly, it's a little bit offensive to the game of football. And I'm saying that while I'm hosting a fantasy football podcast, but the offensive bias is a little ridiculous. No, they don't need to change the Colin and the chat is saying they need to change the touchback fumble rule. No, they should keep the touchback fumble rule. Because if you screw up at the goal line, you deserve to be punished. Okay. I got it with Colin on that one. I don't love it. Of course you are. Yeah. I mean, of course, you are. No, if you screw up around the end zone, you deserve to be punished. It's extra hard for it. All right. But that play might be on my fantasy team, Harmon. Right. Well, well, you know, missing the point here. I, I just want people to not make mistakes in critical moments. And if you do make a mistake in critical moments and you get tackled in the damn end zone, it should be a safety. Or if you commit a holding penalty in the end zone, it should be a safety. Okay. I get it. We're all fantasy football players. We want the best for these offensive guys, but at some point, you got to be able to look ourselves in the mirror and really appreciate the actual football game. I'm just saying you screw up around the end zone. You deserve to be punished extra hard for it. And that's just my stance on it. All right. Number 18 Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys ranked six in EPA per dropback and eighth in Russian EPA. I don't know. People seem to be a little concerned about the Cowboys right now. I'm not. I think they'll be fine offensively. Dak Prescott a by low in fantasy. He's currently ranked as a QB 18 in expert consensus rank this week at home. They are just struggling mildly in the red zone this season after being first in efficiency touchdown scoring last season. Dak leads NFL in red zone attempts, though, the touchdowns will come. It's been a disaster for him so far. He has just 1.6 more fantasy points than Anthony Richardson, who's played five quarters. Speaking of AR, those are the two at the very bottom of the league and attempting to fewest passes, 15 plus yards down field. But I expect that to change. Maybe Dak's a little worried about his interceptions last season, but Brandon cooks was back last week. Gallup looked the best he has in years. CDs still there. They dealt with these numerous a cluster of offensive line injuries last week in that upset. So I expect that to improve in at home. Dak will put up a couple scores this week. Yeah, I like that call. I would say struggling in the red zone is kind of a Mike McCarthy thing. And I also the NFL last year. Oh, but I'm a car. Well on the call. Yeah, there you go. And that interception that Dak threw was ghastly last week. Three different cardinals could have caught the ball in the end zone thing the last week. But okay, it's a great point. Maybe they won't regress as much as a people are hoping with McCarthy calling plays down there. Yeah, and maybe I'm being extra hard on myself because I like a jackass on this podcast is like, people need to apologize to Mike McCarthy and then they promptly blow a classic Cowboys game against their zone of Cardinals on the road. Like so, you know, and also I realized that offensive line injuries. And that is probably a very reasonable explanation. If you're Mike McCarthy, don't say like don't blame it on the offensive line. Just just own for God's sakes. But again, maybe I'm jaded because I was too nice to Mike McCarthy. Too nice to Mike McCarthy. Who am I? All right. Number 19 is the Green Bay Packers. We're skipping them for Thursday and I football suit on to number 20, the Cleveland Browns. The Browns lead the NFL in place per game right now. I will say I feel a little more encouraged about the Sean Watson after that game against the Tennessee Titans, but it's Tennessee Titans who are a joke of a pass defense. So I don't know, you know, Mari Cooper has been quietly balling this year. He's been great on contested catches, which is not really the typical Mari Cooper experience. Elijah Moore's been getting targets, but not enough downfield targets. I'm still trying to figure out like where we are with this Browns passing offense. And Cooper was robbed of a 40 yard touchdown. They blew the whistle. He was not out of bounds. He cost him a touchdown and 40 extra yards and obviously to Sean Watson as well. So he's looked great playing through that hamstring injury. Elijah Moore as well. So to Sean Watson definitely looked improved, agreed there. But I kind of would take this in a different direction to talk about this defense is off to a historical start. They lead the league in pressure rate, fewest yards per play. They've allowed only 21 first downs over three games. Adolfins had 17 before half time last week. They've allowed one offensive touchdown. Their offense is allowed to their their Browns defensive played nine snaps in the red zone this season. I mean, they've allowed three drives of 39 drives, even enter the red zone. The single best three best defensive performances this season based on success rate or the Browns in week one week two and in week three all by the Browns. It's just crazy, man. It's just Jim Schwartz. Well done. Yeah, shout out, man. Like I said, I think it's one of the three best defenses in the NFL right now. They've been incredible. The bar for Watson to clear is like so low for this team to be very, very good because that defense is going to carry the day. Did you hear that apparently that same podcast that I listened with Daniel Popper earlier, their tone to a Browns beat writer and apparently Jim Schwartz, if they don't if one of their teammates makes a big play and they don't celebrate it, they he counts it as like a loaf and they get ripped in the film room for it. Like the energy and enthusiasm that he's bringing is pretty cool to see. Nice. I like that. No. Number 21 Buffalo Bills first read targets on the bills. Stefan Diggs predictably 23, nearly 40% going to fantasy points data. Gabe Davis at 10 Dalton King Cade 7 Dawson Nox 5, the Auntie Hardy 5. It's we talk a lot about these two tight ends, but there's not a lot of plays actually designed for them, which is like bringing down my enthusiasm on a weekly basis for both of these guys here. Yeah, I was more optimistic about King Cade after week one, but that's kind of quieted since then. Diggs hasn't had an eruption game yet and he was quiet against both Dalton's matchups last with relatively, but you could see him going off here. Man, Gabe Davis is just relies on the touchdowns just so so much and speaking of touchdowns or lack thereof. James Cook's on pace for 1,850 yards from scrimmage and zero touchdowns. That may change this week. Should be a high scoring game. The DFS matchup to target here. The bills are allowing NFL high and yards per carry and now they face a Dalton's team that just went crazy. Number 22, the team that just played Buffalo. Sam Howell, Washington Commander. Sam Howell is first in turnover worthy pass rate. He also ranks third in pressures converted to sacks. Yeah, no kidding. And 34th in adjusted net yards per attempt because he takes all of those sacks. Dalton, I feel like I'm on a damn roller coaster here where I felt really good about Sam Howell last week and then I feel about as bad as I could feel about a quarterback coming off that performance in Buffalo. I mean, you just can't take that many sacks and turn the ball over like that and like stay on the field for much longer. You can't and the offensive lines of problem, but it's on the quarterback here. He's holding the ball far too long. The stat show it. So definitely how it needs to improve in that area. I'd like to say that Cole Turner last week led all tight ends and expected fantasy points. He was tackled the one and later targeted in the in zone. And now he gets an eagle's defense allowing the most fantasy points to the position and opponents have to pass the ball a lot. So if Cole Turner, man, if Logan Thomas is out again this week, look for him as a cheap DFS option. Got enough already with these tight ends and the running backs. Like, let's get the ball to the receivers, man. This is the best. Oh, I know. McCorn and Dotson. I know we both love them both. And it's just been a disaster. Really, really ugly. I don't know. The Dotson target per out runway rate dating even back to his rookie year is a little scary. I don't know. What do you think we'd be okay here? And it's just variance three games and it'll be fine. I really hope so. And the fact that they have such a chaos man debt back there quarterback is a little problematic. Like, I think they need to simplify things and like get the reads out to McLaren and Dotson. And that's it. And Samuel to Samuel deserves his share of the pie here. But I don't know. It's definitely concerning because I can't find one single reason like why it would be on the players like the receivers because these guys are open like every play. They're such good route runners and like that is translated to this year for Dotson. So it, but it is, I don't have like a reason why it would change other than it needs to change if that makes sense. Yeah, it's not great when I'm hyping a cold turner. No, it is not. We don't, look, shout out to cold turner. I'm sure he's a wonderful fellow, but we don't want that to be the case here. All right. Number 23, Seattle Seahawks. This one comes in from Scott Barrett. Team expected fantasy point market share when leading Tyler Algier is first in the NFL. Second is Brian Robinson. Fourth is Kenneth Walker. Team expected market share when trailing. Kenneth Walker plummets all the way down to 20th. Same with Brian Robinson and Tyler Algier. They plummet down the list as well. Kenneth Walker's been awesome this year. But it's a little troubling that Charbonne, I mean, unless you're a Charbonne bro, it's been troubling to see him getting more and more work, especially in the exact type of gamescript that we would expect him to start stealing snaps from Kenneth Walker. Yeah, I was close to using Kenneth Walker. My numbers lie column debating it here because he's on one hand running hot on touchdowns big time, which is a regression from Seattle who got like the league's fewest goal line carries last year. And Charbonne is absolutely seen increase usage and not just in garbage time. But on the other hand, Walker is really good breaking a million tackles. He set a career high in receiving last game. And the Seahawks are going to produce a lot of touchdown opportunities for him. So maybe he's not the top, what I think is like the number three fantasy back right now. But he can't be top 12 easily, you know, even with Charbonne eating into that. So 35%. So apologies again for a JSN, man, what a disaster like so far. The A Dodd is just is just not coming at all. And I don't really know what to make of it. On one hand, I wanted to argue with Andy Barrens and say the problem isn't that he's sharing the field with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. I mean, Addison is behind Justin Jefferson, TJ Hawkinson and KJ Osborne. But at the same time, they're not running 11 personnel a ton because they're being so effective running the ball out of 12. So it is a problem that they do have these awesome receivers. But even when the targets have been there for JSN, they've all been at the line of scrimmage. And I don't know if that's a reflection on the coaching or the player. But right now, you can only bench him, stash him. It's tough for me to say it's on the coaching because I think Shane Walden does a great job as an offensive coordinator. Did you see the video that it's been making the rounds on Twitter today where like Gino has been he like went up to JSN. It was like, I need you, man, I need you. The second half is like kind of trying to hype him up, right? Like anything that's gone bad for you is like on, I'll send it to you after the show. But like, anything that's gone bad for you is like on me and like JSN was kind of in and out like responded to it. I was like, I don't want to overreact like one 30 second clip. But it was like, I don't know why it's a little concerning that he would need that like much of a push. But maybe just again, it's start to xenophil career. Maybe just hasn't really gotten it going yet. Playing through a broken wrist, too. But yeah, he's very discouraging. He's ranked like last in a dot. Yeah, weird. Wouldn't have expected that. Number 24 Baltimore Ravens Lamar Jackson ranked 18th in EPA per dropback in week three. Part of me wants to chalk up what happened to the Ravens. It's like, ah, it's a blip. The cult are a little more underrated than people want to give him credit for. But the Ravens are so banged up again, again, you know, Odo Beckham's injured. Rashad Bateman's got a hamstring injury again. You know, it's like Zay flowers and Mark Andrews like, and that's it. Like the offensive line is banged up. The running back room is ravaged. I don't know, man, I'm getting a little concerned that everybody in Baltimore is a little too injured for this offense to reach its ceiling. So of Bateman and Beckham are both both miss the games and disregard of what I'm about to say. But Mark Andrews' role has not been the same out of Greg Roman's system. Jacob Gibbs tweeted that he's accounted for 20% of Lamar Jackson's first Shreed targets over the first over the first two weeks. And when they were healthy last year, that was at 34%. Zay flowers is eating 37% of those first Shreed targets this year. So that is really something to note, not that you're lowering, maybe Hawkinson's two and Andrews' three, whatever you're using them every week. And these injuries will help too. But something to note that he's being used differently in this system and with flowers. Flowers has been awesome. But I could use a few less like curl and stick routes than we've got against the Indianapolis Colts. Number 25 Detroit Lions. We're skipping them for Thursday and football. Number 26, Kansas City Chiefs, Isaiah Pacheco kind of quietly ranks 18th among running backs and expected fantasy points right now. Pacheco's role has been growing. We still haven't really seen, it's been a minute since we've seen the Chiefs in like a normal, normal game because whatever was going on in Chicago was not a normal game. But it kind of feels like they're starting to narrow their receivers down to the guys they want and same with Isaiah Pacheco in the backfield. Pacheco played through that groin injury too last week. He was tackled inside the five twice and had a target of the goal line failed all in the first half when McKinnon and C.E.H. combined for three touchdowns. So very frustrating for him. He did later score. He looks good. And I think Pacheco is a real solid fantasy option moving forward. Speaking of bad luck, Rashi Rice was tackled twice at the one yard line last week. His playing time is quietly increasing in targets per out run this season. It's Tyreek Hill won Devonte Adams two and Rice three. He should be added in every single fantasy league. Yeah, he looks like a big boy after the catch, which is a nice development because that was I think his best trait as a collegiate player, but he's also looked, I mean, it's been kind of a journey at the catchpoint. So there's some inconsistency. He needs to iron out, but I like what I've seen so far from Rice number 27 Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons ranked fourth in Sacrate allowed and 23rd at PFF's pass blocking efficiency Dalton quietly. The offensive line has been kind of a big issue for the Falcons and they spent a lot of resources on that. You know, they brought back two of their starters paid Lindstrom like a huge contract. But so far, that has been an issue. And I think it's been a quiet, I mean, among many reasons, an issue why the past game hasn't gotten off the map yet. Offensive line, Ritter being horribly inaccurate last game, but I know you're going to roll your eyes, but I'm going to go here. What do we make of Kyle Pits, man? He's first in route participation, first in area, yard share, fourth and expected fantasy points. That moves to number one. If you account for the penalties and the defensive penalties alone, he's drawn. That said, dude's averaging 2.6 catches, 32 yards, five targets, over as last 13 games. Did he look quite right? Even with his coming from this MCL on that deep pass. I don't know. 91% route participation this year. So he's it's all up, even with John who Smith also getting the targets. So again, it's on one hand positives on the other negative. So I would be shocked if Kyle Pits doesn't finish at the top 12 fantasy tight end this season, just because I mean, the bar is so so low at the position. But I can understand what people are so frustrated. And his ECR is dropping below that right now. So what do you make of the pits conundrum? Yeah, I think a big part of it right now. And this wasn't an issue last year. Like last year, I think you looked good. This year, I don't think he's looked 100% coming back from this injury. And like he's just not fully firing at this point. And he there's such a low margin for error because they use him so deep down the field. Like he's their vertical shot player, whereas Drake London is kind of that intermediate target hog. Like he has a nine point something A dot does Drake London, whereas Kyle Pits is up there. So I think that's a bit like the fact he has isn't run perfectly, but he's their deep threat guy. Like that, that I think has been a big part of the problem so far. That's interesting. Yeah. I mean, it's, I mean, it makes sense. And they're pastored over expectations bought last in the league. So they're just going to run it like crazy. Yeah, he doesn't look right. And the underlying stats may be a bit of a lie because you're right. The way they use him is it's not going to translate into consistent production. But man, is a frustrating player. Number 28 Indianapolis Colts Josh Downs has a 20% share of the first read targets in Indie, quietly playing more, quietly getting more involved. I love Josh Downs, man. And you know, initially coming into this year, I was like, look, I just want Anthony Richardson in this offense to be good enough to make Michael Pittman a thing. That has happened. But I've now raised my expectations where I think that Josh Downs can be legit, really involved with this team right now. But it's mostly been short targets. They have been throwing the ball short a lot and they're getting it out quickly. They run with a lot of pace. But that pace can boost a sleeper up out of this offense. Why can't it be Josh Downs who again was one of my favorite prospects in this class? Yeah, he's looked great. And if nothing else, he'll really help Richardson's fantasy value coming back another option there to throw to hopefully AR get healthy soon. And then Zach Moss, one of the biggest, you know, full on workhorses in the league suddenly. And he's looked way better too. He's not just getting the volume. He's actually looked good out there. I've, I've been shocked at how good Zach Moss has looked. Same. That's been great to see. Number 29, the Pittsburgh Steelers. Can he pick at ranked seventh in EPA per dropback in week three? That was compared to 30 second in week two and 29th in week one. It's similar to the Daniel Jones analysis where look, if when you get these guys away from some of the best defenses in the NFL, if they're like average starting quarterbacks, those, those teams will make an average starting quarterback look like a joke of a quarterback. But look, pick it was far from perfect against the Raiders on Sunday night. But I'm at least like putting my expectations a little bit higher, although that offensive line remains a huge, huge problem primarily in the run game though. Yeah, they opened up with the Niners and Browns defenses might be the top two in the league and then the Raiders. And then it was his first multiple TD past game of pick its career. So, yeah, he's going to be a matchup dependent type guy, but nice to see him succeed even if it was against the team bottom three and pressure rate. I see fire moves get involved as well. Yeah, not the worst schedule either. They get used in this week. Do the Pittsburgh Steelers, then the Ravens who are very, of course, very banged up on defense to buy weak Rams who, if you could block Aaron Donald, you can get over on that defense and then the Jags and the Titans in weeks eight and nine. Number 30, Philadelphia Eagles. Man, Deandre Swift is balling out right now. Among running backs with 10 plus carries according to fantasy points data. Deandre Swift ranks fourth in zone concept success rate behind only Austin Eccler, Nick Chubb and Devon Achan who, of course, just blew up last week. And he also, he has only had a few runs out of like man gap concepts blocking scene, but he has 100% success rate. Deandre Swift, he's been balling out, but also like this is such a good rushing ecosystem. Like, could we be looking at a potentially special run game here with the way Swift has played on top of just, I mean, wide open lanes. Normally I roll my eyes, don't have people like I could get five yards behind an offensive line, but maybe, maybe behind this Eagles offensive line. Yeah, just wide lanes. No doubt. I believe Swift has been tackled the one yard line three separate times this season. Man, I'm jealous of people who have him on. I wish I had him on more of my fantasies. I have him a couple, but he is, he's, he was dominating opportunities before that final 15 play drive in garbage time to 18 to seven and to get a gain well, who had nine of his 14 carries of over the last two drives. That said, Dwayne McFarlane points out that it might have been a quarter thing because in quarter number two, Swift saw 26% of snaps and gain will saw 72% and in the fourth, it was like zero to 100. So we all just assume it was the garbage time, but it might have been a rotation in quarters there. So don't just write that in, in, in pen yet, but Swift looks like the better player and he's awesome. And in that environment, who cares, whatever, he's going to be, he must start the Andre Swift while healthy, moving forward. Yeah, I think both things can be true. That's a great note from Dwayne and it may well be true, but also who cares because in this Russian ecosystem, especially when you get a favorable matchup. And Tampa is not necessarily a favorable matchup, but they just, they're going to win the battle in the trenches almost every single time. And it can get more targets. I know hurts doesn't throw a lot, but Swift has upside there too, man. I mean, he literally can finish the top fantasy back any given week. Number 31 Miami dolphins, offensive EPA per play rankings. The dolphins are first at 0.39. The 49ers are second all the way down at 0.16. I mean, the dolphins offense right now is just ridiculous. I don't know. I don't have like a take here. It's just my god, this offense, like what we're watching right now might truly be like special historic stuff. Yeah, two is the man so much most motion, lapping the field in pre snap motion. And I just want to point out that they got 700 plus yards, 70 points last week without Jalen Waddle. I mean, just super impressive. This really gotten Waddle going before that. Like he'd had a couple of quiet weeks. His usage wasn't great. Like they haven't even gotten him fully unleashed yet. Yeah, speaking of being jealous, I don't have much of a chance because I love my guy, most are but a 31 year old and Wilson's health. I mean, that could be that just screams league winner all over H and speaking of jealous, uh, Dalton dunked all over me with the two of takes in the preseason two. I think we can officially call that in favor of you as well. Yeah, you were skeptical of this offense. It hasn't quite gone as well as your call of the Broncos last year with this, but the running was what you were saying. I say that seriously, dude. I mean, you, you, you, I took it serious when you said that. And again, they need to stay healthy. I mean, Mike White's not going to replicate this, but the running is that shocked you because that's what you were skeptical of. And, and this is just gone from, you know, zero to 100. Yeah, I said that the thing they needed was they needed to develop a really good run game. Like as a counter punch to their past game, they couldn't just roll out what they did last year. And honestly, I should have just been like Mike McDaniel. You are, you know, bowed down to the king there. Like I should have just left no doubts to our, our, our, our king Mike McDaniel. He would figure this thing out. That should have been what I really said. Like, yeah, I have these concerns. I have these skepticism, but who, who gives a damn? Cause Mike McDaniel is going to figure out. He knows ball. Everyone said to us 8.9. YP is going to regress. Do is at 10.1. So far this year. Just out of control. It's out of control, man. All right. Number 32, your San Francisco 49ers, Brock party ranks fifth in off target throw rate, which is good. Like fifth best. So not off target, very often. He trails only Patrick Holmes, Dak Prescott, Josh Allen, Russell Wilson. People look like it was soon as party started to struggle on Thursday night, you know, a little bit early. And look, he has the easiest gig in the NFL, being the trigger man of that offense. I get it. But people like were ready to kind of send the wolves out on party. And I mean, look, he still is playing fine at this point to me. Yeah, he's missed some throws the last two weeks. They still continue to win. And he has 20 touchdowns and three interceptions since taking over a week, 13 last year. But yeah, I know he's had some moments where he's missed some throws lately. And this week, the Arizona team is going to come to play and Debo Samuel is mispracticed with dealing with that rib injury. I you're still dealing with that shoulder injury. So I don't know, I can't expect this game to be competitive, but pretty, yeah, pretty fantasy-wise. They run the ball a lot and their defense is good. So he's not, you know, going to have a ceiling higher than top 10 any week. But man, he continues to just get multiple TDs in week in, week out. Yeah, I think he's been really solid this year. Like again, there's plays he wants to have back. There's plays everybody wants to have back. All right, let's move to Thursday and I football. This is a really interesting game. Little disclaimer, we're taking this podcast just a little bit earlier than we would have. And there are a lot of injury questions in this game. So keep that in mind as you listen to what we're about to say. But right now, what we know, it seems like Aaron Jones and Christian Watson are going to return for the Green Bay Packers. I think that's important for my Packers stat, Dalton. We have Jordan Love ranked second in turnover worthy throw rate beside only behind only Sam Howell. But he's still ranks number one in EPA per dropback. I would say that Jordan Love, it hasn't been perfect, but he's about to get his two most explosive players back. And I think the things that he's missing on right now are mostly like mechanical and can be and can be corrected with more experience just out there playing on the field. Love's having a wild season. First of all, he deserves a ton of credit for what he's doing, replacing Aaron Rogers without Christian Watson and mostly without Aaron Jones. But man, he's he's he's he entered last week leading the NFL and passer rating, but was behind only just in fields and next gen's completion percentage above expectation. Finish Sunday's game with a bad number there yet earned 20 plus fantasy points for the third straight game. He's running. He's being asked to throw the ball. He's number one in average depth of target too. And he doesn't feel any hasn't had Watson. So it's all all more positive for love who's been one of the best superflex fantasy picks of the year. And then this week, by the way, the the Lions opponents have the third highest pass rate above over expectation this season. So it's a really a nice setup for Thursday night. Yeah, that bleeds into my lion's stat here. And again, injury wise, we think David Montgomery's going to play early is Dan Campbell thinks, but we don't know that as of the time we're taping this. But my lion's stat has to do with the defense here. The Lions ranked eighth in rushing success rate allowed, but 20th in dropback success rate allowed. Aden Hutchinson's been really good so far this year, but they have injuries in the secondary after trying to beef that unit up. But they're, again, their run defense has been really solid. Like they shut down Atlanta. Like they plugged those holes, man. That was a really impressive performance that that said something to me. And even the Celux, like tried to establish Kenneth Walker against the the Lions early in week two. And it was going nowhere, man. So I think we might be needing to adjust expectations on the Lions defense, where from a rushing perspective, they're getting to be like legit good, even though from a past perspective, they're they're not. So maybe this becomes a little like 10 diet Coke Tennessee Titans, where you can't run on them, but you can throw on them a little bit. Yeah, to try the new past funnel. Good for Jordan. Love Luke Musgrave has been close to having bigger games. I like him moving forward. Jaden Reed had a weird half, you know, shut out the first half, a couple bad, bad drops, but then some really nice catches. But Watson, nice setup. If he does return against this lion's secondary with the with the way they've been defending the run as well. Jared Goff, we need him to to be up for the task to put up some points to on the other side. And of course, he usually does not perform as well outdoors. But he's been playing very solid. Yeah. Goff is like just playing pretty good football right now. Like I think he's leveled off to being a pretty good quarterback. I don't know. This offense is fun in Detroit. They use them on Rossing Brown in such fun ways. I think they trusted Jameer Gibbs a little bit more than I expected last week. So if David Montgomery does return, what are your expectations for that backfield? I'd like more targets for Gibbs. They ran them up the middle of time. They basically just used them like Montgomery. It was weird. Not much for Reynolds. But yeah, we'll see. I would expect more of this as we saw week one with Montgomery replacing those carries up the middle and maybe more targets for Gibbs. We need to get him out in space more. But it was nice to see St. Brown play through that toe injury. I was really concerned there. And then Sam LaPorta, who Andy just kept this in all all preseason. What a beast. I mean, just completely destroying learning curve models for tight ends. I mean, what is he doing? Just out of control. Very impressive start for LaPorta. Yeah. LaPorta has been unbelievably good. I said learning age curve models for the, I mean, rookie's ideas are supposed to do this. No, I mean, hey, that is a, that's a learning curve model too. It's supposed to be about the learning curve. So yeah, he's been incredible. I don't know. So just last thing, Christian Watson. Obviously, they gave Aaron Jones plays your play in him. Even though this matchup is tough, they just got to get more out of him than they've been getting out of AJ Dillon. What about Christian Watson? If he plays, I don't know, where you think you'll like rank him wide receiver wise? Oh, probably, it'll be top 30ish. I would say assuming he's good to go. No, yeah, yeah, top 30 for this. You looking at the wide receivers there with this matchup with, especially the, the marriage here, here could be really nice with love throwing the ball down field and where Watson runs his route. So, oh, yeah, I'm starting him as a borderline wide receiver, too, right away if he's, if he's active. Lines opened up as one and a half point road favorites. I think I kind of like the Packers there, getting a point and a half. I think they could straight up win this game. This is an interesting one. Yeah, perfect on that one. Packers. Good time, Simon. That's a beautiful note of harmony to end the podcast on despite, you know, you bringing back some old takes that I regret painfully. Apologies. I've gotten more wrong than you, I'm sure. I deserve the shade for the Mike, the Mike Evans thing and the Mike McDaniel stuff. I mean, I should have been nicer to the Mike's this year that I do regret very deeply. So you are correct to shame me for that. But that is going to do it for us today, folks. Appreciate it. As always, you now have the stats that you need to know heading into week number four. Tomorrow, we fully set the stage for week four with the binge stream skip preview. Dan Titus coming back for a second appearance on that one. Until then, we're out.